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Reviews of the Rollercoaster

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184 Comments

Tickets are still available to the Vancouver Real Estate Roller Coaster. Critics are calling it the Summer blockbuster that’s not to be missed!

“..a useful image when thinking about asset prices in general today and always. Human behaviour and leverage drive our asset price cycles. If we always keep the roller coaster image in mind, we will never be able to relax and fall asleep after a period of very steep climbs; nor will we be as inclined to throw in the towel after a period of very steep falls.”

Danielle Park – Juggling Dynamite

“..a wonderful illustration of financial storytelling. Metaphor can be a wonderful tool, the reason this one works is that it takes an over used cliché and makes it real.”

Stewart Marshall – Financial Storyteller

“A vomit inducing ride.”

The Georgia Straight

“The only thing I had a problem with is that [it implies] what really is going to happen is we’re going to fall off the roller coaster and sink into the water. Investments are volatile. If you want low volatility then buy low-volatility GICs.”

Tsur Sommerville – UBC Center for Urban Economics and Real Estate

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Anonymous

@Jeff: @Jeff:

People are not agreeing with you. They are voting down your off topic, self-absorbed navel-gazing post. This site is not about you.

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XXX

Dave

I'd prefer a number that isn't controlled by the RE industry and yes I know the arguments against avg and median but at least they can't be manipulated/smoothed. I said 15% down on either humour me with your opinion.

ALSO

Lay of Larry … he's a good guy. I hate email because Paul B id sound a little condascending but like Larry I'm sure he's good people.

AAIC great comment

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patriotz

@Jeff:

CREA “Over the past 12 months, most new mortgages (64 per cent) have amortization periods of 25 years or less”

Since nobody else brought it up – a new mortgage is not the same as a new buyer. If I'm an existing homeowner, and I move my mortgage from Bank A to Bank B, or move to another house, that's a new mortgage. Or if I refinance to different terms. Since the vast majority of outstanding mortgages have less than 25 years to go, so will most of such new mortgages.

What matters is the mortgage terms for new buyers, because house prices are determined at the margin.

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oneangryslav2

@Jeff: according to CREA “Most mortgage holders (77 per cent) have a home equity position of at least 25 per cent” Jeff, if you really are a lawyer I hope that I never need your services, as I prefer my lawyers to have sharper critical thinking skills than your comment would suggest you have. First of all, this is a Canada-wide statistic. It would be interesting to find out what percentage of mortgage holders in the GVRD have greater than 25% equity. I imagine it would be a fair bit less than 75%. Second, this is about equity, not about the size of the mortgage. Since 2007, the market here has rallied about 25%, which means that everybody who purchased before then (and hasn't sold or HELOC'ed) has at least 25% equity–even those who bought with nothing down. Good for… Read more »

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Anonymous

Canada's worst places to live

Overpriced housing: Vancouver, B.C.

http://money.ca.msn.com/banking/mortgages/gallery…

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Spec

Here's what i voted for -> Stick to stats, logical, fact-based arguments, friendly discourse. Drop the drama.

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Jim Bob

@Jeff:

I voted to have you stay Jeff. I hope you stay true to yourself and can have your opinion changed rather than just deciding to become a bear for the sake of it. I felt the data you have provided can be viewed in several ways. I offered my bearish perspective. Good to have some bullish perspectives. Hell, when we get low on bulls, we seem to bicker amongst ourselves.

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Bill Bad

What's will all the tar holes posting all of a sudden? I guess certain 'professionals' have lots of time on their hands. Ha ha..

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Jose's mom

@ Chilled:

Amen to that. Unfortunately, this site is quickly becoming a hate site.

@ Jeff:

Keep up the good work! This site can use a more balanced opinion.

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Jeff

Chilled –

Realtors are awesome! Most of the ones my firm work with have degrees, many of them ex-lawyers or even doctors. Real estate as a profession is interesting because it attracts all types. The income potential is interesting too, from barely making anything to doing a million bucks a year in commission. I don't group any profession as being "turds".

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Chilled

@M-:

M- Says:

June 1st, 2010 at 10:41 pm

@Jeff: Jeff, are you serious? It’s 10:30 at night and you expect soembody to come up with a referenced statistic 9 minutes after you ask for it?

++++++++++++

EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are too damn busy looking at hooters and snapper!

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Chilled

@Jeff:

Jeff, express your opinion and avoid the group think. I participate in far too many blogs and have been banned more than one can imagine. I agree with the gist of this blog but hate 'group think' and appreciate dissenting opinion.

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Chilled

@Jeff:

Serious question Jeff. I am serious, not trying to piss you off, but I'm sure the topic has come up around the water fountain.

Question; How does your profession feel about Realturds taking over the position or "least trusted, least respected" position in oh so many polls?

It may seemingly appear as a good thing, but personally, being 'superceeded' in anyway, by someone whose credentials are accumulated after a few weeks of night school would still piss me off. What does your profession think about this?

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Jeff

Chilled –

Thanks, looks like a score of 7 agree with you, they don't want me to leave either.

I thought people were going to vote to have me leave, but wow I'm impressed that I've been voted so far to stay.

I guess I'll start playing the game and join you guys hunting for evidence that this market is doomed.

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Jose's mom

Jose finish your beans and get to bed!!!!……Now!

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Keeping an Eye on Th

I heard the best pimp job to date on the *Bill Slut Show on Realty Radio 98. Bill Slut had a “mortgage expert” She pointed out this is the best time to buy. Bill agreed, and brought up that some callers, who claim there is a bubble, also believe in some crazy conspiracy of the media being compliant in propping up the bubble. The expert (who advertises heavily on Realty Radio 98) went on to assert prices are very reasonable, as we are the 4th most livable place on earth. Oh did I mention the “expert” has a long weekly infomercial on the said radio station-not that there is anything wrong with that. *Bill Slut name was originally thought up by another fellow bear. Bill Slut if you read this blog, and I think you do. How much of your… Read more »

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Chilled

@Jeff:

Jeff Says:

June 1st, 2010 at 10:20 pm

Dan in Calgary –

The score counter thing.

Who wants me to leave this site vote thumbs up.

+++++++++++++

I can't speak for anyone but myself, but I doubt anyone here wants to discourage intelligent discourse or dissenting opinion. Just don't spew the extreemly self serving Realturd shit like Kite to the Moon or whatever it calls itself this month. Stick around.

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M-

@Jeff: Jeff, are you serious? It's 10:30 at night and you expect soembody to come up with a referenced statistic 9 minutes after you ask for it?

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jesse

Mortgage rates are low but sales in May '10 were about the same as May '08 (during a severe recession).

Think like a CEO. Don't look at the mortgage rates. Look at the sales.

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Jim Bob

@patrick_saint:

Indeed

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Superfly

Jim Bob / Nero,

OK, I concur, the sales numbers are not bullish compared to previous years! That tips the balance from mixed to bearish.

I still think the mortgage rates will stay low though, as the economy is not strong enough in my view to warrant many rate increases and Canada is not close to defaulting Greece-style.

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Jeff

Jose –

That's what I thought, you got nothing, right?

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festeringwound

Well bear another day another disaster for your charts and other shit. So lay down in your bed bug infested moldy shack and suck it up because your life will always be this way. You should have paid more attention in school!

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Jose

Jeff, you clearly are a –

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Kz7YUdy-Cg

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Jeff

Jose –

Point me to a reference that is written by someone other than a blogger on this site that supports your stat.

I'm a lawyer, not a Realtor.

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