Reviews of the Rollercoaster
Tickets are still available to the Vancouver Real Estate Roller Coaster. Critics are calling it the Summer blockbuster that’s not to be missed!
“..a useful image when thinking about asset prices in general today and always. Human behaviour and leverage drive our asset price cycles. If we always keep the roller coaster image in mind, we will never be able to relax and fall asleep after a period of very steep climbs; nor will we be as inclined to throw in the towel after a period of very steep falls.”
Danielle Park – Juggling Dynamite
“..a wonderful illustration of financial storytelling. Metaphor can be a wonderful tool, the reason this one works is that it takes an over used cliché and makes it real.”
Stewart Marshall – Financial Storyteller
“A vomit inducing ride.”
“The only thing I had a problem with is that [it implies] what really is going to happen is we’re going to fall off the roller coaster and sink into the water. Investments are volatile. If you want low volatility then buy low-volatility GICs.”
Tsur Sommerville – UBC Center for Urban Economics and Real Estate
June 2nd, 2010 at 9:29 am
@Jeff: @Jeff:
People are not agreeing with you. They are voting down your off topic, self-absorbed navel-gazing post. This site is not about you.
June 2nd, 2010 at 7:30 am
Dave
I'd prefer a number that isn't controlled by the RE industry and yes I know the arguments against avg and median but at least they can't be manipulated/smoothed. I said 15% down on either humour me with your opinion.
ALSO
Lay of Larry … he's a good guy. I hate email because Paul B id sound a little condascending but like Larry I'm sure he's good people.
AAIC great comment
June 2nd, 2010 at 6:25 am
@Jeff:
Since nobody else brought it up – a new mortgage is not the same as a new buyer. If I'm an existing homeowner, and I move my mortgage from Bank A to Bank B, or move to another house, that's a new mortgage. Or if I refinance to different terms. Since the vast majority of outstanding mortgages have less than 25 years to go, so will most of such new mortgages.
What matters is the mortgage terms for new buyers, because house prices are determined at the margin.
June 2nd, 2010 at 1:34 am
@Jeff:
Jeff, if you really are a lawyer I hope that I never need your services, as I prefer my lawyers to have sharper critical thinking skills than your comment would suggest you have.
First of all, this is a Canada-wide statistic. It would be interesting to find out what percentage of mortgage holders in the GVRD have greater than 25% equity. I imagine it would be a fair bit less than 75%.
Second, this is about equity, not about the size of the mortgage. Since 2007, the market here has rallied about 25%, which means that everybody who purchased before then (and hasn't sold or HELOC'ed) has at least 25% equity–even those who bought with nothing down. Good for them, but what does it mean when prices drop 25%? What percentage of these will continue to have at least 25% equity in their homes?
June 2nd, 2010 at 12:06 am
Canada's worst places to live
Overpriced housing: Vancouver, B.C.
http://money.ca.msn.com/banking/mortgages/gallery…
June 1st, 2010 at 11:21 pm
Here's what i voted for -> Stick to stats, logical, fact-based arguments, friendly discourse. Drop the drama.
June 1st, 2010 at 11:18 pm
@Jeff:
I voted to have you stay Jeff. I hope you stay true to yourself and can have your opinion changed rather than just deciding to become a bear for the sake of it. I felt the data you have provided can be viewed in several ways. I offered my bearish perspective. Good to have some bullish perspectives. Hell, when we get low on bulls, we seem to bicker amongst ourselves.
June 1st, 2010 at 11:07 pm
What's will all the tar holes posting all of a sudden? I guess certain 'professionals' have lots of time on their hands. Ha ha..
June 1st, 2010 at 11:00 pm
@ Chilled:
Amen to that. Unfortunately, this site is quickly becoming a hate site.
@ Jeff:
Keep up the good work! This site can use a more balanced opinion.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:55 pm
Chilled –
Realtors are awesome! Most of the ones my firm work with have degrees, many of them ex-lawyers or even doctors. Real estate as a profession is interesting because it attracts all types. The income potential is interesting too, from barely making anything to doing a million bucks a year in commission. I don't group any profession as being "turds".
June 1st, 2010 at 10:55 pm
@M-:
M- Says:
June 1st, 2010 at 10:41 pm
@Jeff: Jeff, are you serious? It’s 10:30 at night and you expect soembody to come up with a referenced statistic 9 minutes after you ask for it?
++++++++++++
EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are too damn busy looking at hooters and snapper!
June 1st, 2010 at 10:52 pm
@Jeff:
Jeff, express your opinion and avoid the group think. I participate in far too many blogs and have been banned more than one can imagine. I agree with the gist of this blog but hate 'group think' and appreciate dissenting opinion.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:48 pm
@Jeff:
Serious question Jeff. I am serious, not trying to piss you off, but I'm sure the topic has come up around the water fountain.
Question; How does your profession feel about Realturds taking over the position or "least trusted, least respected" position in oh so many polls?
It may seemingly appear as a good thing, but personally, being 'superceeded' in anyway, by someone whose credentials are accumulated after a few weeks of night school would still piss me off. What does your profession think about this?
June 1st, 2010 at 10:48 pm
Chilled -
Thanks, looks like a score of 7 agree with you, they don't want me to leave either.
I thought people were going to vote to have me leave, but wow I'm impressed that I've been voted so far to stay.
I guess I'll start playing the game and join you guys hunting for evidence that this market is doomed.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:46 pm
Jose finish your beans and get to bed!!!!……Now!
June 1st, 2010 at 10:44 pm
I heard the best pimp job to date on the *Bill Slut Show on Realty Radio 98.
Bill Slut had a “mortgage expert” She pointed out this is the best time to buy.
Bill agreed, and brought up that some callers, who claim there is a bubble, also believe in some crazy conspiracy of the media being compliant in propping up the bubble.
The expert (who advertises heavily on Realty Radio 98) went on to assert prices are very reasonable, as we are the 4th most livable place on earth.
Oh did I mention the “expert” has a long weekly infomercial on the said radio station-not that there is anything wrong with that.
*Bill Slut name was originally thought up by another fellow bear.
Bill Slut if you read this blog, and I think you do. How much of your personal wealth is in RE?
June 1st, 2010 at 10:41 pm
@Jeff:
Jeff Says:
June 1st, 2010 at 10:20 pm
Dan in Calgary -
The score counter thing.
Who wants me to leave this site vote thumbs up.
+++++++++++++
I can't speak for anyone but myself, but I doubt anyone here wants to discourage intelligent discourse or dissenting opinion. Just don't spew the extreemly self serving Realturd shit like Kite to the Moon or whatever it calls itself this month. Stick around.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:41 pm
@Jeff: Jeff, are you serious? It's 10:30 at night and you expect soembody to come up with a referenced statistic 9 minutes after you ask for it?
June 1st, 2010 at 10:38 pm
Mortgage rates are low but sales in May '10 were about the same as May '08 (during a severe recession).
Think like a CEO. Don't look at the mortgage rates. Look at the sales.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:38 pm
@patrick_saint:
Indeed
June 1st, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Jim Bob / Nero,
OK, I concur, the sales numbers are not bullish compared to previous years! That tips the balance from mixed to bearish.
I still think the mortgage rates will stay low though, as the economy is not strong enough in my view to warrant many rate increases and Canada is not close to defaulting Greece-style.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Jose –
That's what I thought, you got nothing, right?
June 1st, 2010 at 10:29 pm
Well bear another day another disaster for your charts and other shit. So lay down in your bed bug infested moldy shack and suck it up because your life will always be this way. You should have paid more attention in school!
June 1st, 2010 at 10:28 pm
Jeff, you clearly are a –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Kz7YUdy-Cg
June 1st, 2010 at 10:27 pm
Jose –
Point me to a reference that is written by someone other than a blogger on this site that supports your stat.
I'm a lawyer, not a Realtor.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:27 pm
For Jeff Says and the rest of you bulls. Your desire to ignore the bigger picture could and will cause you more grief than even the Bears would wish on Rob Bennie.
The opinions and warnings posted on this site may just ring true if you read outside the box (Vancouver Sun, CBC, The Grab and Bail etc.).
All jesting aside, the future of the global and local economies are precarious at best. I suggest all Bulls tread cautiously with any investment from now until the real jobs come back to North America.
http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=512
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/;kw=36…
June 1st, 2010 at 10:25 pm
Jim Bo –
I love Peter Schiff, I look for his video blogs daily.. I listen to his every word.. love the guy
June 1st, 2010 at 10:23 pm
@Jeff: You're not even comparing the same thing you maroon. I said 90% of buyers in the last year put 10% or less down. And what does stupid jeff the soon to be underemployed realtor come back with? "most mortgage holders (77%) have a home equity position of 25%". Learn to read you idiot. Are you hyperventilating from blowing up too many balloons or what?
June 1st, 2010 at 10:21 pm
@Jeff:
Oh my 64 percent, that's almost 100 percent, surely there is no bubble. And like I said earlier, this evidence supports the idea that first time home buyers are priced out of the market. You have been thoroughly rebutted for all of your evidence and yammering, such as the "A great place like Vancouver will never fall", um yeah San Diego fell 50 percent, but uh "San Diego did not fall 50 percent". Don't start acting like you are full of stats or information, because a google search can easily prove those statements wrong.
Your condescending attitude and laughing reminds me of those fools that were laughing Peter Schiff on fox news before the bubble really burst in the US. http://albertabubbleblog.blogspot.com/2010/05/pet… I suppose you need to resort to laughing because you don't have any solid data. Go back to the rodeo bull.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:20 pm
Dan in Calgary -
The score counter thing.
Who wants me to leave this site vote thumbs up.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:12 pm
Jeff, regarding “Over the past 12 months, most new mortgages (64 per cent) have amortization periods of 25 years or less”
A few obvious questions are:
1. Why has this happened and what does it mean? This might in fact point to a shift in buyers to a more affluent class. Given that the real estate "ladder" requires a constant influx at the bottom, what does this really mean for the near-term real estate market? Is it possible that the lenders are tightening up the rules and are no longer giving mortgages to people who are at risk of not paying? If this is the case, this is not good news for people who want prices to keep going up.
2. What is the product mix for these new mortgages? This would shed some light on the first question.
3. What are the stats on mortgage applications? These provide a different index of buying interest. Are they increasing or decreasing? How many people are being turned away? Is there a decline in demand?
Well, there are a lot of questions one could reasonably ask, and I don't have time or interest (or probably the ability) to sort it all out for you, but I thought I would take some time to answer you, since we all seem to have upset you.
Btw, what is that we did that makes you want to tell us that "you pissed me off" and now you need to get back at us?
June 1st, 2010 at 10:10 pm
@Jeff:
Yeah, 25yrs or less because Vancouver isn't the centre of the universe, but this site IS about Vancouver. Statistics are like torture, beaten enough, you get what you want.
June 1st, 2010 at 10:00 pm
@Tony Danza: Clearly you have no idea how complicated real estate industry works. Balloon tying is not done by realtors, they make too much money and don't have time. They hire assistants to tie balloons and set-up signs. Maybe someday you will become realtor and be asked, Who's the Boss?
June 1st, 2010 at 9:58 pm
sorry guys but I gotta say this site sucks… you people have no idea the kinda stats I can kill you with…
CREA "Over the past 12 months, most new mortgages (64 per cent) have amortization periods of 25 years or less"
Now that's solid!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
And just think I'm on your side and you pissed me off… ahhaahhhaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaah