River Green sells out
River Green, The massive planned housing development advertised as Richmonds ‘very own coal harbor’ sold out this weekend, setting a new record for Richmond presales.
The biggest purchase was by a family who bought four suites valued at $5 million. Four penthouses also sold on the opening weekend at over $3.4 million. The 150 condo complex set Richmond sales records for individual condominium sale price and price per square foot.
Condo developer George Wong says this proves the once down and out real estate market is back. “It does set the tone for Lower Mainland real estate strengths. Certainly hope this is a shot in the arm for real estate in the province.”
The 28-acre luxury waterfront community is expected to take 15 years to build.
In fifteen years those buyers will either be thrilled they bought now before they were priced out forever, or potentially not so thrilled if the housing market fails to thrive. You’re going to have to wait 15 years to find the answer to that one.
June 22nd, 2010 at 2:48 am
@kwl:
谢谢。现在，你怎么问一个的华人，如果他们有救生衣和里士满地区在其昂贵的车库排船？
June 22nd, 2010 at 1:02 am
Why rent? To get richer
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/Home…
June 22nd, 2010 at 12:16 am
@jim:
Grandpa came to check if there were some Asian chicks available to pick it up. Presales are places in Vancouver, where those who know go, to get laid with Chinese bimbos.
June 21st, 2010 at 11:51 pm
June Unit sales
1995 = 1997
1996 = 2424
1997 = 2315
1998 = 1775
1999 = 2446
2000 = 2033
2001 = 2914
2002 = 2768
2003 = 3643
2004 = 3642
2005 = 4485
2006 = 4064
2007 = 4336
2008 = 2478
2009 = 4319
2010 = 2110***June 20
Eight more sales day to go. Unit sales are taking a beating.
June 21st, 2010 at 11:21 pm
Coming to a city near you
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-…
I love the quality of women in China almost as good as Vancouver
June 21st, 2010 at 11:01 pm
@domus: If I recall correctly, in the latter part of 2008, the expires/cancellations were quite significant and inventory didn't continue in a straight line upwards because at any given time, a large percentage of listings would get expired or canceled, much more so than in the early part of the year. This is probably a feature of corrections in general, at least until outright panic and capitulation occurs (which didn't materialize in 2008 because of central bank intervention).
One way to picture it is that there is a growing phantom inventory out there that represents owners in limbo who have listed but didn't get any sale and are deciding what to do next (there is also a shadow inventory of owners who haven't listed yet but are waiting, like millenium project, to put their units for sale at some later time). Technically, they are off the market unless they relist immediately after the expire/cancellation. But in a sense the property is a kind of phantom inventory because it is a property that the owner wanted to sell but doesn't appear on mls.
On another note, the incipient revaluation of the yuan would suggest we may get higher interest rates sooner than expected, adding further risk to the re market.
June 21st, 2010 at 10:30 pm
@Wizard of Ozzie:
Was pretty crowded in there.
June 21st, 2010 at 10:28 pm
@Anonymous: 115, that's a great link.
June 21st, 2010 at 10:00 pm
@Wizard of Ozzie: Whats that white guy doing in the video in the end? Who let him in the sales area?
June 21st, 2010 at 9:52 pm
Did you check out the video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwiihpZ_9gI
June 21st, 2010 at 9:52 pm
@Nero, regarding "making it sound like they deserve to die in quicksand" …
Did somebody really suggest that?
My initial thoughts (post #22) on this complex were that it is foolish to build/sell/buy a luxury complex in the area, because of the stability issues. Why invest a lot of money in something that probably won't last? If you're going to spend $5 million, you should certainly have a firm foundation.
My general thoughts on Richmond have long been along the lines of "what is the government doing about real estate development in Richmond generally?" Is there a policy? If not, why not? I don't believe the government is acting responsibly. Post #25 in particular suggests that the issues are as serious as I have long believed.
This has been of some importance to my wife and I since the 1970s. We still know several people who live there; I worked there for many years; I have one very dear friend in her 70s who's lived there for many, many decades. She knows how my wife feels about Richmond.
Richmond used to be a lot of SFHs and low-rises. Now they "load" the soil and build taller buildings, although I think they're still limited in height because of the airport. I dunno. Are the taller buildings really going to last? I think "Leaning Tower of Piza" (which isn't that tall), but I'm not a soil engineer that's for certain.
Question: what part of your body is highly exposed and a tempting target to others when you got your head stuck in the sand?
June 21st, 2010 at 9:35 pm
@McLovin: So if trends continue, all listings will have dropped their prices in 3 months! Seriously though, the big unreported story — and one that isn't well tracked outside of the real estate boards — is price reductions due to expiries and subsequent re-listings.
Remember the "victoria flippers in trouble" blog? It hasn't been active for 2 years now. It was taken off the Sacramento one of similar name. This format really gave the sense at how fast some listings were dropping their prices without any bites. I'm almost sure that's happening today with many lower quality listings but it takes effort to track these, either in the form of manually recording them or writing the appropriate parser and UI code to do it automatically.
The real story is the stuff that's not moving. They will drag the rest of the market down with price reductions; it's only a matter of time: inventory ain't going lower until the fall and open term mortgages/bridge loans suck @ss.
June 21st, 2010 at 9:23 pm
@VHB: what is hard to understand and make sense of is the size. The quality of the adjustment is clear, the quantity does not make sense to me.
I am sure your identity is correct, no question. My doubts pertain to the number of the expiries and why they are not relisted.
June 21st, 2010 at 9:18 pm
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June 21st, 2010 at 9:08 pm
Dear fellow realtor,
Greetings from Wedgewood, Polygon's limited collection of three and four bedroom townhomes on the North Shore. As a member of our local realtor community, I wanted to keep you updated on our latest news. Since opening just a few short months ago, our sales office has been a busy place. In fact, we sold 6 homes last week. As we approach the end of our sales program, we are pleased to offer an increased selling commission of 4.65% / 1.1625% as a thank-you for your ongoing support.
That'll do the trick!
June 21st, 2010 at 8:55 pm
@domus: Remember when listing where going straight up a few months ago? well a lot of those listing didn't sell.
June 21st, 2010 at 8:50 pm
from Danielle Park's site:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipmH0RHQ4ec
A housing bubble severely misallocates an economy's resources. It causes homes to be built with such speed that quality and safety are the first factors to be compromised. It eventually leads to a glut of these poor quality homes…deserted, unwanted. What a waste.
June 21st, 2010 at 8:27 pm
@ south_slope
Why River Green is so popular and OV is not? Because OV is finished and if you buy it you have to pay full price and you don't make money. River Green is 3 to 5 years away you only need to put down 5% right now. You can still dream to make it big.
June 21st, 2010 at 8:13 pm
House prices and rents have been closely linked throughout history, with both increasing at the rate of inflation, or about 3% a year since 1900.
Why rent? To get richer
June 21st, 2010 at 7:58 pm
Here's a headline you WON'T see tomorrow in the Real Estate section:
1% of the entire inventory in the lower mainland dropped there prices yesterday alone. In the past week, 5%.
June 21st, 2010 at 7:58 pm
@Boombust: Do you actually think anyone put down 5 mil for a pre-sale? You put down as little as possible with visions of flipping a few months or year down the road and then cry crocodile tears when it blows up in your face.
People buying in this future stalled condo project are not the "hot money" you're looking for.
June 21st, 2010 at 7:46 pm
QUESTION:
Are mortgages that were approved prior to April 19th still active and valid?
For example, if someone was approved for $500,000 at 3% on April 18th, would they have to re-qualify their pre-approval on the 19th of April at 6.1% (or whatever the BOC posted rate is)? Or would they have that approval carry through.
In addition, how long does the typical pre-approval last? 90 days?
That would mean that we have about a month left.
Thanks
June 21st, 2010 at 7:32 pm
"Liquefaction….how do you say this in Chinese?|
Sinkhole. Financial and otherwise.
June 21st, 2010 at 7:20 pm
No More Gordocracies Says:
Liquefaction….how do you say this in Chinese?
___________________________________________________________________
液化
But I don't know how you say this. I don't even know if it's right.
June 21st, 2010 at 7:15 pm
"why is it that River Green is so popular with foreigners yet the OV is not?"
Exactly. Something smells fishy, doesn't it?
June 21st, 2010 at 7:11 pm
why is it that River Green is so popular with foreigners yet the OV is not?
June 21st, 2010 at 7:09 pm
@domus: "Neither Agentwill numbers nor VHB arguments seem to be sufficient to explain the stagnant bottom line inventory figure. "
What was insufficient with my saying it was expiries? It's an identity:
delta inventory = new listings – sold – expired/removed.
If the LHS is zero but new – sold>0, then expired/removed makes up the difference. Why is that so hard to understand?
June 21st, 2010 at 7:02 pm
@domus:
Everyday some listings expire or are cancelled/terminated. On an inventory of almost 19k this number is often significant. That takes a real bite out of the climb when listings slow down.
June 21st, 2010 at 6:53 pm
Good dailies, thanks Paul. I am still tracking the flows religiously, although I am still confused about stocks. Neither Agentwill numbers nor VHB arguments seem to be sufficient to explain the stagnant bottom line inventory figure. I guess I am still missing something about the way the inventory figure relates to daily flows. Would be happy to hear from anyone who has figure it out!
June 21st, 2010 at 6:53 pm
How long can this madness go on without major consequences?????
June 21st, 2010 at 6:36 pm
@Anonymous:
It doesn't figure in. The sold/listed/price changes stats are based on MLS listings. The big developments do their own marketing and don't list on MLS.
June 21st, 2010 at 6:36 pm
@Anonymous:
If they were not listed on the MLX they don't factor in at all.
June 21st, 2010 at 6:30 pm
"New Listings 222
Price Changes 200
Sold Listings 85"
Told ya.