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June 10th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
@superduperbulltime: “Yeah bear why work hard when you can rent… forever.”
I agree. If the ownership premium is so high that it affords me a carefree lifestyle, heavily subsidized by people toiling away because they “have to own”, why wouldn’t I take that deal? After all, I can work hard too if I wish, and I can get something better with my money. Hell, I can buy property all over the world except possibly in Australia.
It seems we have now reached the point where the rats are running the race with no cheese.
June 10th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
But aren’t these just absolute numbers and not adjusted for avg income/revenue for retail fronts?
Study doesn’t have much meaning otherwise…
It would be like saying DT condos in Vancouver are cheap because they are 1/2 the price of a DT condo in New York.
June 10th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
@Purp1: I would pay $500k JUST for those fabulous trees in front of that sweet listing. They look like expressive eyebrows over the house’s eyes/windows!
Also, I hope the painting comes with the place. People aren’t making paintings like that any more.
WOW!! What a lifestyle! I’m sold!
http://www.realtor.ca/Property.....ID=9547915
June 10th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
@“A-sharp” Accountant:
“Mainstreet equity is a publicly traded company. MEQ.TO”
Just had a look at their chart – this one is ripe for a short.
June 10th, 2010 at 1:12 pm
@Anonymous:
That should be “second level shares TWO walls with two amenity rooms.”
June 10th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
@“A-sharp” Accountant:
The return on investment in your example drops even more when you account for interest expenses on his mortgage. The yield may even go way negative for the intial decades of the mortgage where you pay mostly interest.
June 10th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
@YLTNBoomerang:
This was purchased for 745,000 and then sold in April ‘08 for $719,000 – the owner lost $25K + real estate fees. What makes me laugh is that the owner who bought for $719,000 is now listing at $699,000! Everyone who buys this place loses money!
Where are you getting your sale info from? The last sale registered on the LTO system is from August 2005 for what looks like $490,000.
@Anonymous:
Anyone know what’s wrong with this building?
Could be just that one townhouse. Windows on the street side only. Lowest level shares a wall with one amenity room, and second level shares a wall with two amenity rooms.
June 10th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
@The other Garth: Yeah bear why work hard when you can rent… forever.
June 10th, 2010 at 12:36 pm
anecdote: An acquaintance has been killing himself the last 10 years. He sleeps 4 hours a night and works all day. His reason? “I HAVE to make $100k a year. I have 3 mortgages to pay.”
Sure he has tons of equity, and I’m jealous of that. He could sell now and live comfortably. But he doesn’t. What’s the point of building equity if you don’t enjoy life?
June 10th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Here’s one in our hood.
V832543
Listed at $725′ish (don’t remember exactly). Then dropped to $618K. Sitting for couple of months, now dropped to $598K.
Lots of sellers in East Van that have no concept of what their shack is worth.
June 10th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
@YLTNBoomerang:
“MLS: v817990″
Asking price is $570/sq.ft., way below what a yaletown condo should command. Anyone know what’s wrong with this building? Must have a pending assessment or be near a halfway house or something.
June 10th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
@joycer: Month numbers can also get skewed quite a bit by urgent deals.
I noticed in 1 building (Fairview-FC) a few weeks ago, a unit sat on the market for $1.05 million, and then suddenly dropped to $699k, finally selling for $720k. The sellers had some personal health issues (these were not flippers, nor did they need to sell at peak pricing) and just wanted to move on (they seemed like nice people, for what it’s worth).
June 10th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Uh oh bears, financial post is like reading horror show. Markets up, RBC says Canada growth to be strong, forget about double dip, time to hibernate. Time to start thinking about new excuses why market keeps going up up up like kite to moon.
June 10th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
@chip: I think the article was poorly written and confusing. It makes no mention if the average lease rates were “gross” or “triple net.” If the rates were triple net, taxes/main/etc could add significantly to the overall $/sq ft. When I checked 3 years ago, Robson/Bute corners were going to $225/sq ft triple net.
I think $200/sq ft+ is already nuts (at least for Canada). You would have to sell an awful lot of $69 shoes or $5 lattes to make it back. What is already apparent, is that many chains are willing to lose money on flagship locations, for PR purposes (most 5th Ave & Mad Ave flaships high end boutiques lose money).
Let’s see what happens to those lease rates when many 5 & 10 year leases, which were signed during peak credit, run out.
June 10th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
40 Chinese on a bus tour. That sounds like Sunday afternoon at the Superstore when the mall rats bring their multi generational families to crowd the aisles with meandering uselessness. Its not like they are each buying a can of soup, the Chinese just love to congregate, its a cultural thing. Its either dim sum or mall walks , you never see these people take their kids to the in the park or walking. I’ve been in plenty of houses where there were at least twenty people living under the same roof, so fourty on a bus probably represents grandmas sex day and she’s swept the kids out of the house to get jiggy.
Meanwhile, Carneys painting himself into a corner and by talking out of both sides of his mouth is proving to me, at least, that he’s shit scared and out of options, the debt devil and the deep blue sea of fiscal reality.
1)http://www.financialpost.com/news/sees+loonie+becoming+reserve+currency/3137130/story.html
2)http://www.financialpost.com/news/predicts+fastest+growth+decade/3135881/story.html
He has painted the loon as stable against the backdrop of basketcase economies. By hiding the fact that Canada has as a high a debt to GDP ratio as all the rest he has attracted unwanted attention and will be forced to deal with an inflow of hot money. This will drive the loon up while also having to face the higher rates of competative cash at the same time. Foolish move Mark.
The economy is being advertised as growing, this is a sham advertisement to continue the spending circle, consumers are already tapped out to the tune of 148% of income. The ‘hot’ economy will force up rates yet agin due to the inflation already in the system. I was at the grocery store today and if meat prices continue to go up as fast as they are then they will have to put the steaks under glass and post security guards. Quite a liars conundrum our fearless leaders have created.
June 10th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
@“A-sharp” Accountant:
Wow, that’s quite a good deal on the rental in Kelowna! I also know someone there who is renting out her property at a loss (not a fancy rental like the one you mentioned!) She bought for about $250k (add on another $17k CMHC fee for not having 25% downpayment) the rent is now $1100/month (she tried to rent it at $1400 but it sat vacant for more than 6 months). Her mortgage is $1450/month, strata $200, property tax $125. Oh and the balance of the mortgage is around $260k, so if she sold today (similar units are selling for $230k) she would owe the bank. Underwater. A realtor in Kelowna told me that there are many many vacant condos in Kelowna, bought by “investors”. I say Kelowna will be ground-zero for condo losses in the country.
Interestingly, I know several wealthy people in Kelowna, those with incomes of over $150k and these are NOT the people who’ve jumped into real estate. The ones who’ve jumped in the most are the 30-somethings in debt up to their eyeballs, and babyboomers with all their equity in their homes. It’s scary!
June 10th, 2010 at 11:59 am
@“A-sharp” Accountant: That is some SWEET number crunching.
I think it moved.
June 10th, 2010 at 11:44 am
Oh…and here is the link for the 619 in Abbotsford
http://abbotsford.en.craigslis.....71607.html
two years ago, it was near impossible to find even a 2 br basement suite for less than 850.
Here’s Another example of low yield. My friend in Kelowna is renting a condo (investor pre-bought at 1.2 mill) listed currently at 899k (not one single showing in 14 months). This is a 2000 square foot condo on the 14th floor with 1000 sq feet of decks and top notch finishings.
Total rental cost? drum roll………$1700………clap
take off 450 for strata, and (guessing) 400 for property tax and any other incedental expenses, and we are at 850 a month net yield. This landlord is bringing in 10200 yearly on an initial investment of 1,200,000. This landlord is currently getting less than one percent return on investment.
Another perspective is NPV analysis. What is the present value of 10,200 a year, 7% expected return on capital (assuming the rent is growing by 2% annually into eternity)? Drum roll………$204,000……
Talk about a “slam dunk” investment. I guess that’s how the rich get richer. I should tell my friend to hurry up and buy it for 899k so he can start “building equity”
June 10th, 2010 at 11:37 am
A bit off topic, but had to share this gem:
MLS: v817990
This was purchased for 745,000 and then sold in April ’08 for $719,000 – the owner lost $25K + real estate fees. What makes me laugh is that the owner who bought for $719,000 is now listing at $699,000! Everyone who buys this place loses money!
June 10th, 2010 at 11:29 am
@No Longer Looking:
Good find with that mainstreet equity rental ad.
mainstreet equity has dropped prices for some fully renovated two bedroom units in Abbotsford down to $619 a month…
Rental vacancy in Abbotsford is off the charts. 6-8% for apartment buildings, and more like 11-13% (anecdotal, from prop managers)for the owner landlord stuff.
Mainstreet equity is a publicly traded company. MEQ.TO
June 10th, 2010 at 11:17 am
I have been receiving mls listings update around Richmond Hill and Markham from a realtor in Toronto. Most of the listings I am getting are new or relisted expired listings or listings with status PC or price change with price dropping. I think it is worse in more bubbly vancouver that is why bulls are panicking.
June 10th, 2010 at 11:17 am
@Supraboy:
Would it be this bus by any chance?
http://foreclosurebustours.com/
Jumping the gun a bit, but just wait.
June 10th, 2010 at 11:06 am
bulls are active today. Good sign. Bulls on panic mode. keep it up bull. Never have I voted down so many dumb posts in one day before.
June 10th, 2010 at 11:04 am
Now landlords have to offer free food to get prospective tenants to their open houses. NICE
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....01518.html
“Come along and meet the team! Complimentary drinks and nibbles will be offered!”
June 10th, 2010 at 10:41 am
Everybody enjoying the weather today? Feels like during the Winter Olympics.
Summer is officially starting in 11 days…
June 10th, 2010 at 10:40 am
Bear I will give one piece of investment advice only. Listen carefully and pay attention. When Jeff Rubin announce that he will write book about peak gold it’s time to short gold. Trust me I made over 100k last time he announce book deal.
June 10th, 2010 at 10:36 am
@Supraboy: Math is not your forte. 1 CAD is 0.8 EUR today.
June 10th, 2010 at 10:32 am
@Supraboy:
“I get info from real people unlike you bears”
Obviously you’re speaking to the wrong people. Aren’t you the fucking idiot who said Hong Kong’s unemployment rate is 3%?
http://www.hketousa.gov.hk/usa.....51810.html
June 10th, 2010 at 10:05 am
@chip:
The designer stores are on Georgia, not Robson.
June 10th, 2010 at 10:01 am
Don’t get so riled up bears, bulls are here to provide some jokes on this Debbie Downer blog.
Bears cheering for this city to fail and bankrupt all homeowners, just so they can buy. Sad.
June 10th, 2010 at 10:00 am
@VRENGD: The amount the average moved is certainly a >1sigma event. I think you’re right the move has some decent chance of being significant. I think that while it likely shows some price weakness it attests more to the mix of properties being sold. Don’t know what a change of the mix means, though.
June 10th, 2010 at 10:00 am
@CH:
……Supraboy obviously comes here looking for a fight (a virtual fight). If this were a real discussion, in a coffee shop lets say, he would not speak like he does here. Heck he wouldnt even show up,…….
He couldn’t afford the coffee!
June 10th, 2010 at 9:56 am
@VRENGD: I don’t think I said average prices aren’t useful. I said that they shouldn’t be used as an indication of price changes. The benchmarks are much better than that.
The average does contain information–in this case it suggests that it is the lower end stuff that is moving.
We get information from both measures. The point is to use the proper measure to answer each question at hand.
June 10th, 2010 at 9:51 am
@Supraboy:
“My friend just had a bus drop off 40 chinese people at their house to look at it.”
Supra, finally you’re making sense.
Guess those 40 people living in the million dollar house might get a bit crowd but that’s one way to afford the mortgage payments.
June 10th, 2010 at 9:33 am
You people shouldn’t be bickering. Anyone going to Europe in the summer? It’s 1 CAD to 1.24 EURO today. Assuming the Euro tanks more, it’s time to load up properties in Europe.
So far, I’m enjoying the 1 CAD to 7.6 HKD.
June 10th, 2010 at 9:33 am
While some on this blog do not find average prices useful, they are the only single number that provides an overview of the entire market.
Average prices tell you how much money in aggregage changed hands in a period of time. Falling averages may be due to falling prices across the board or a big decline in buyers of high price properties.
Either way, a falling average price tells you that the market is heading down. It tells you that there is less money going into real estate.
Less high end property sales and falling prices across the board mean the same thing: the flow of money that is propping up the bubble is withering.
June 10th, 2010 at 9:31 am
@Best place on meth:
“The Fairview numbers may suggest that we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel for buyers if only the low end garbage is selling now.
Have the imaginary busloads of wealthy Chinese gone home to lick their wounds as their own property and stock markets get slaughtered?”
My friend just had a bus drop off 40 chinese people at their house to look at it. Her house was listed for 2 weeks and was sold immediately for +$1mill in marpole. How’s that for scraping the bottom of the barrel. I get info from real people unlike you bears. Bears feed off each other to comfort themselves in a cave.
June 10th, 2010 at 9:29 am
@CH: Why wouldn’t I speak the way I do in a coffee shop? I’d probably be laughing at you bears as to why you people are so negative in life.
I can’t understand why there’s so much doom and gloom being spread here for +2 years yet none of your so-called bearish predictions came to fruition. Most of the bears here have waited long and hard. How’s the hibernation going so far? If you scroll back to recent history of bearish talks, even right before the olympics, every bear predicted a market crash right after. What happened to that?
June 10th, 2010 at 9:24 am
The Fairview numbers may suggest that we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel for buyers if only the low end garbage is selling now.
Have the imaginary busloads of wealthy Chinese gone home to lick their wounds as their own property and stock markets get slaughtered?
June 10th, 2010 at 9:15 am
Whats wrong with blocking IP addresses of trolls? Supraboy obviously comes here looking for a fight (a virtual fight). If this were a real discussion, in a coffee shop lets say, he would not speak like he does here. Heck he wouldnt even show up, hes probably an internet only person with no friends and major debilatating issues socializing with real people.
This blog gets enough traffic that you can afford to block some people. And I know his IP can change but that doesnt really happen on cable modems these days.
Maybe force people to use their facebook or twitter logins?
getting on topic, i think South granville would cost more than robson, all it is is high end shoe stores and art galleries.
June 10th, 2010 at 8:46 am
In the survey of streets I wonder where they drew the line? While Robson isn’t the longest street in the world the high value real estate would seem to be just a few blocks. Maybe this is true with all the surveyed streets but the numbers could be misleading given the changes in desirability the further away from Thurlow and Robson you are.
Still it shows what business can bear and what the demand is along Vancouvers biggest retail strip. Not the sign of a big retail powerhouse city. But not surprising considering the realities of a city with severe affordability problems for the average person.
June 10th, 2010 at 8:37 am
@Supraboy:
Ha Ha Ha Ha……………………Thanks for your defense of Vancouver RE,we need more intelligent bull to overwhelm this site with optismistic ideals and insights.The bull savoir will come in another 2000 yrs with Jesus’s bone.
June 10th, 2010 at 8:33 am
@Van MD: Bear this why you rent forever. No business sense. Only loser bear go into your VCI CULT store. Loser bear have no money.
June 10th, 2010 at 8:18 am
@VHB:
VHB, I was thinking something similar and posted the following on Yatters (currently waiting for moderation)
“Quite the swing. I’m interested in the Avg Sold asking price. Are these huge price reductions or simply lower-end stuff getting sold?
Larry, can you share a few examples of sales showing their original asking and what reduction it took to get them sold.
Are low-ball sales happening or sellers just pricing better?”
June 10th, 2010 at 7:53 am
@Van MD:
Your retarded idea of pooling resources together is meant for middle class bagholders who can’t afford a house and bitch night and day hoping for a market crash.
I got a better idea for you, start a new religion. Call your god “Bear”, then you bears can pray together in your retard bear mask. On Easter, you can roll out a pig and fry it, sacrifice it to the bear. Pig represents the landlords for being rich and fat from sucker renters. Start chanting, “Burn those pigs”.
June 10th, 2010 at 7:15 am
Real Estate Agents Defrauding Banks in Short Sales
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2.....ort-sales/
June 10th, 2010 at 7:13 am
@joycer: Interesting numbers and definitely bearish. However, this is a good example of why using averages is misleading. I suspect the reason for these large drops is a combination of lower prices for a given quality of house, and lower quality housing being transacted. It’s nice to be able to separate the two.
We shouldn’t take this as evidence that particular properties are down 20%+.
June 10th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Wow! Larry’s Fairview attatched numbers are epic:
Average and Median Prices of Sold Properties
May/June’s Average Ask price decreased to $472,743 from April/May’s $613,082.
The Median Ask price in April/May was $599,900 but decreased to $451,850 in May/June.
The Average Sold price in the April/May was $606,469. This dropped to May/June’s average sold price of $466,493.
The Median Sold prices reacted similarly with April/May’s price of $595,000 sliding to May/June’s $439,500.
http://www.yattermatters.com
June 10th, 2010 at 5:01 am
It’s an average of $330 in Singapore’s prime shopping district, and the tenants are the likes of Prada, Miu Miu, Burberry, Dolce & Gabbana, Cartier etc.
Nothing like a Footlocker or Red Robin to be seen so Singapore still has a way to go till it becomes a world class city like Vancouver, I guess.
June 10th, 2010 at 3:06 am
If we pool enough resources together, Pope can open a Vancouver Condo Info Centre on Robson St. Revenue is to be generated from hosting seminars to the bailing bulls. paulB can be the expert consultant realtor. The scrolling LED sign at the front will have LIVE updates of inventory count, daily stats, and CULT index. Inside the VCIC there will be a Vancouver RE coaster simulator, in 3D and sporting full hydraulic control for complete immersion (here’s an example http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3CaoeV9g0E )