sales down, prices up and set to flatten
Home sales in BC are down 11 percent in May 2010 compared to April, but prices are up and set to flatten according to the BC Real Estate Association.
The survey also concluded that, year-to-date, B.C. residential sales dollar volume increased 50 per cent to $17.5 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential sales rose 31 per cent to 34,619 year-to-date, while the average price climbed 14 per cent to $505,468 over the same period.
The BCREA said in another recent survey that it expects sales to rise next year by about four per cent.
A separate survey by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) recently forecast that prices would rise 2.3 per cent this year across the province before slipping back by 3.5 per cent in 2011.
Full article in the Vancouver Sun
September 7th, 2010 at 5:00 pm
I don't understand how some of you would say you can afford to travel more as a renter than a homeowner. If you Had more money, you wouldn't be renting in the first place. Obviously the homeowner is taking your bitter money and piling up more cash while you have to take a percentage of your earnings each month to make the fat get fatter. I know quite a few homeowners getting rich renting their paidoff homes. Those who bought 20 yrs ago are laughing to the bank. Those who have parents with half a brainshould be enjoying multiple paidoff homes purchased more than 30 yrs ago.
Royal LePage predicts falling prices | Vancouver Condo Info Says:
July 7th, 2010 at 8:27 am
[...] outlook is at odds with the BCREA and CREA market surveys released a few weeks ago that predict flat or rising prices for 2010 and then falling prices in [...]
June 22nd, 2010 at 9:01 pm
@grimreaper:
Let those pathetic losers whine coz they don't have a solution,while homeowner are laughing and waiting for next month rent.
June 22nd, 2010 at 9:01 pm
@grimreaper:
Let those pathetic loser whine coz they don't have a solution,while homeowner are laughing and waiting for next month rent.
June 16th, 2010 at 7:49 am
@r_j_b:
I don't know about that. I think companies who pay all their taxes like the HST because it makes them more competitive with the companies that have been paying people under the table.
At the end of the day, the consumer ends up footing the whole bill whether they pay the tax or the builder. It's the total tax at the end of the day that matters. For new housing, consumers are paying way too much tax. It's obscene.
June 16th, 2010 at 3:37 am
@buff_butler:
If the Canadian government was seen to be taking actions that would result in a falling CAD that would INEVITABLY result in higher interest rates.
Countries that are seen to have weak currencies always have high interest rates. That is one of the main reasons why Greece and the other "Club Med" counties joined the Euro – to get lower borrowing costs. Which they took full advantage of, which is one of the reasons they're in trouble now.
Trashing your currency is never a free lunch.
June 16th, 2010 at 1:42 am
@4slicesofcheese: Wow, living the life of the super-rich is great, who would have thought??!? What a fluff piece. This town is way overdue for a reality check.
June 15th, 2010 at 11:40 pm
Saw this cover story on the newsstand last month
http://www.vanmag.com/Real_Estate/Ditch_The_House…
They go into the upside and downside of ditching the house for a shoebox in the sky..
QUOTE:
UPSIDE We don’t have to look at gutters that need cleaning, spider webs on the eaves, or leaves in the pool. Instead, we enjoy five-star amenities and valet parking. And less space means we have no room to store all the junk that the kids are just going to throw out anyway when we die. Never mind the phenomenal gain in property values for condos compared to detached houses.
DOWNSIDE Everything we worried about turned out to be a plus. The tranquility of our house, which we thought we’d miss, now seems boring. We also thought we’d miss having relatives stay with us. But it’s a plus: they no longer invite themselves for weeks on end. We put them up in the hotel part of the Shangri-La, a few floors below us; they have privacy and feel like royalty."
oh yeah Bill Goody is one of the "unbiased" subjects of this article.
June 15th, 2010 at 10:45 pm
@Anonymous:
Outright lie from frustrating bears
June 15th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
@Chilled:
"I need to get a grip on the concept of someone who is ‘90′ even contemplating buying a place. Maybe someone could enlighten me?"
I know, it's kind of mind-boggling isn't it? But I guess in that generation, people don't rent, ever ever (even if death is not TOO far away). She bought an old mobile home to live in, so oh well, what's the loss. She also travels internationally regularly, and I've heard that she's questioned often by customs officials who look at her puzzled…"really, you were born in 1920??"
People are living longer and longer…(and she's not about to run out of money either, she's got an old-style company pension and several hundred thousand dollars in the bank-without the sale of the house) lol!
June 15th, 2010 at 9:31 pm
@Chilled:
unless you are also being cynical, you're my fucking problem
June 15th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
@kabloona:
The Vancouver School Board is in trouble for one reason. It increased spending, mostly on teachers' wages and benefits, at the same time that enrollment was falling. The trustees can't do math, or refuse to.
As for the supposed dissimilarities between Greece and Canada, the problem with the VSB shows we have a lot more in common than you think. Decades of unprecedented prosperity and security in the West has insulated us from the truism that there is No Free Lunch.
June 15th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
Bear everyday you rent is one day closer to the day you DIE. I've taken many bear and they all beg not to take them until they BUY. Who wants to die a RENTER. Only losers that's who. Your obituary will read "FORENTER,LOSER,BEAR"
June 15th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
@patriotz: Greece and Canada are in different situations. Greece being a currency taker does not have any control over its currency whereas Canada does. That being said:
1. Canada can run higher theoretical debt levels
2. There are different options to the outcome. None of them particularly awesome but such is life.
Now in regards to the EMU, unfortunately, one by one these countries will likely fail to meet their liabilities due to the fact that each one has to have net positive euro's entering the country to be mathematically possible to meet liabilities (minus a few things that are now working against them in this equation).
June 15th, 2010 at 8:36 pm
@Abolish CMHC, post #2
"After decades of living and spending beyond their means, Americans have suddenly started to save more and spend less. If you bring up the charts its quite startling."
This is due to mainly due to two factors: credit lines being cut, and defaults on debt and resulting writedowns. Believe it or not, that is included as "savings" in the statistics.
June 15th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
@specialfx3000:
Don't be so fucking cynical!! I would pay ANYTHING to live in skid row, what the fuck is your problem???
June 15th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
@anonymous:
anonymous Says:
……….She’s 90 years old and doesn’t exactly have time to spare, she’s bought another place closer to family………..
+++++++++++
I need to get a grip on the concept of someone who is '90' even contemplating buying a place. Maybe someone could enlighten me?
June 15th, 2010 at 7:15 pm
Ten more listings
New Listings 247
Price Changes 160
Sold Listings 122
18,830
June 15th, 2010 at 7:03 pm
@specialfx3000: Gingerliving means it's built for redhaired folk with freckles etc… Everyone knows Gingers like to form their own communities where they can live without fear of non-Gingers.
I think it's great that developers are willing to take into account the special needs of our Ginger folk.
June 15th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
@mattymatt: Those renters that become buyer would leave that many apartments/houses empty, either making them great deals for owners who wants to sell and become renter, or plain and simple distressed landlord who now has to sell cause he's bleeding thousands per month.
June 15th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
@Boombust: Question: Is Vancouver RE similar to MonaVie?
It's definitely running on "miracle juice"
June 15th, 2010 at 6:44 pm
The construction industry loves the HST. Why?
“Beyond July 5, we will be speaking about the benefits of HST to the construction sector, as well as the public and to our members,” said McLachlan.
“Under the PST, there is approximately $875 million that the industry has to absorb in their operating costs. Under the HST, this becomes a flow through cost. The reduction in industry operating costs will result in a reduction in costs to the buyer of construction services.”
That $875 million will now be paid by individual taxpayers instead of the construction industry.
http://www.joconl.com/article/id39160?search_term…
June 15th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
Thanks for your insight "Anonymous". I am actually one of those renters and love what I'm seeing in the market. -10% and falling. I hope your predictions are correct!
June 15th, 2010 at 6:29 pm
Well, in May 2008 I remembered this particular one bedroom condo in the West End because of its price: it was listed for $550k. The realtor was dropping the price 10%, than 15%, eventually they sold for ~ 380k. Was that a good deal? No. Only looks like one, because the listing price was ridiculous. Who is to blame for this? The realtor, who refused to see the reality for what it was. How on earth he thought he could sell one bedroom condo in a plain concrete building, in this city – not New York or Paris, for over a half a million is beyond me.
June 15th, 2010 at 6:20 pm
@paulb.: Halfway through the month and I have sales around 1586. That puts us on pace for about the same sales volume as May. Let's see what the second half of the month brings!
June 15th, 2010 at 6:16 pm
@mattymatt: "Think that is what drove the 2008 RE out of the fall it should have taken."
Was it mostly lower prices, or lower interest rates, that brought buyers back into the market in 2009?
June 15th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
@mattymatt: You stil don't have to buy if you rent and money is getting more expensive anyway. I also don't think there are too many people that sold from 2007 to 2010 left around that haven't already bought even bigger and more expensive places using their "equity".
June 15th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
@mattymatt:
I could be wrong, but I don't think there are too many people like that left. Even people I knew who thought there was a bubble, gave up and bought back in 2008 when there was a slight correction in the market. Everyone I know has bought. I'm quite an anomaly to be renting still in my group of friends/acquaintances. Besides, I think there will be more pressure on those who DID buy, and realize they can't actually afford it, and will have to put their houses on the market to sell. Or those speculators who bought, found out that no, you can't rent that "luxury" condo with one parking spot in Burnaby for $2250/month, and try to sell. In the US, for a couple of years we heard of "buyers strike", a time when listings piled up, there weren't too many sales but prices still weren't decreasing. What happened was prices just got too high and people stopped buying. Maybe something similar will happen here.
June 15th, 2010 at 5:59 pm
Question: What will happen when, all the people that sold from 2007 to 2010, and who are renting, start to snap up the good RE deals soon to come? I Think that is what drove the 2008 RE out of the fall it should have taken. Any ideas?
June 15th, 2010 at 5:55 pm
Thanks Paulb! Inventory is slowly creeping towards 19k. Hopefully sales will drop faster than listings in the next few weeks!
June 15th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
New Listings 238
Price Changes 160
Sold Listings 122
18,821
June 15th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
@Aleks: Not to disagree with any sense of "entitlement" but it's worth a check what the CPP promised to produce for citizens when it was first established, before going off on a rant.
June 15th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
Question: Is Vancouver RE similar to MonaVie?
June 15th, 2010 at 5:33 pm
At last I checked out the link recommended here:
http://vancouvercondo.info/2010/06/friday-free-fo…
That site is infested with realturds, I lost count of the long list. I though these threats are funny.
A landlord has put one of her revenue houses for sale, no luck so far. She visited the property to clean up and saw her neighbor's son who then offer (over the fence)to buy from her for what was market price 5 years ago. She went on counseling other sellers that buyers are out there and the market is not dead and they should hang on to their prices. Heck if I am a house-seller, I certainly won't get advice from a competitor.
A nurse sold her condo and bought a house and asked for build a pond in the garden. Her hospital unit will be shut down some years later. She worries losing her work hours that reduces her take home pay. She refuses night shift because that gives her bad headache. Heck, I almost had a nervous breakdown just reading her posts.
June 15th, 2010 at 5:29 pm
@Whitebear:
That's only perceived "wealth". The bears have been ahead all along. The bulls just haven't got the message yet, and when it comes, it will be right in the face.
June 15th, 2010 at 5:24 pm
56 Patriotz
We can start with a yard sale. The we can sell the heavy stuff to China. Just like our friends south of the border.
http://news.malaysia.msn.com/business/article.asp…
June 15th, 2010 at 5:22 pm
oops, this:
"than to resist and face murder."
should be:
"than to resist and face becoming a renter."
(same difference really)
June 15th, 2010 at 5:19 pm
Vancouver Real Estate Syndrome is a term used to describe a paradoxical psychological phenomenon wherein hostages express adulation and have positive feelings towards their captors (heavily leveraged residential housing units) that appear irrational in light of the danger or risk endured by the victims.
The following are viewed as the conditions necessary for VRES to occur.
* Hostages who develop VRES often view the perpetrator as giving life by simply not taking it. In this sense, the captor becomes the person in control of the captive’s basic needs for survival and the victim’s life itself.
* The hostage endures isolation from other people and has only the captor’s perspective available. Local media and real estate sales newspapers routinely keep information about the outside world’s housing markets away from captives to keep them totally dependent.
* The hostage taker threatens to kill the victim and gives the perception of having the capability to do so. The captive judges it safer to align with the perpetrator, endure the hardship of captivity, and comply with the captor than to resist and face murder.
* The captive sees the perpetrator as showing some degree of kindness, such as 10% or 15% price drops. This kindness serves as the cornerstone of VRES; the condition will not develop unless the captor exhibits it in some form toward the hostage. However, captives often misinterpret a lack of abuse, such as flat pricing or a so-called "balanced market", as kindness and may develop feelings of appreciation for this perceived benevolence. If the captor is purely evil and abusive with constant drops in value, the hostage will respond with hatred. But, if perpetrators show some kindness, such as supply of granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, victims will submerge the anger they feel in response to the terror and concentrate on the captors’ “good side” to protect themselves.
June 15th, 2010 at 5:18 pm
@Whitebear:
Greece. Who's going to bail Canada out?
June 15th, 2010 at 5:13 pm
Shitty Vision Vancouver screws kids out of summer programs so that bum boy Robertson and his frilly panty crowd can spend 25 million on bike lanes that less that 2% of the population have used or require.
Nice going guys…historic move.
June 15th, 2010 at 5:12 pm
"The government does not control interest rates. They are determined by the bond market. The BoC only influences very short run rates."
Ask the FED about its quantitative easing program if that is the case. How about the recent European Central Bank's $1T pledge to contain the crisis? Governments have so many ways to control long term interest rate as long as the people (lemmings) don't call their bluff.
Another bloggers says it right. The last few years have witnessed a grand shift of wealth from the savers or the real estate bears to the risk takers, the "consumers", and the real estate bulls. The 2008 event, if left to draw to completion by the market, would have the savers, the real estate bears vindicated. We all know how the story unfolded with the Canadian gov pledging 100% guarantee on the CMHC loans and 100% guarantee on the bank's Asset backed securities (ABS).
I don't share the optimism prevalent here that the government won't step in or the government has their hands tied in rescuing another housing slump. They will print its way out like there is no tomorrow as long as the people allow it to do so. Just take a look at the USD index and see how it is still at 88 while the money printing press, aka the quantitative easing program, has been running non-stop ever since 2008. (Read Jim Willie's comments on the web. He talked about how the FED obscured its money printing press with offshore buying of treasury bonds. The recent 1T dollar swap with the ECB was put in place to prepare for another round of bond monetization in the future)
What makes you think that the government would stop off mailing anyone with a 100k check or something similar? If the current European contagion worsen after this dead-cat bounce, I can guarantee you that the government will come up with 10x as much this time. If 1T didn't work, they will prop it up with 10T. Stay tune for what is unfolding and it won't be good for the savers for sure. Privatizing the gains while socializing the loss. What a BS world we're living in!
June 15th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
Interesting commentary in the Globe and Mail suggesting Vancouver School Board would rather not balance its budget because it doesn't want to cause further stress to Vancouverites with enormous mortgages:
http://tinyurl.com/27e5oo8
Globe and Mail – Gary Mason
Vancouver board’s plight elicits no sympathy elsewhere in B.C.
- Why should taxpayers in other districts subsidize programs that their own boards cannot afford?
———————
"…In her report, the comptroller-general said rents the Vancouver board was charging groups to use its buildings were far below the fees other districts had imposed. Some of those user groups include non-profits running before-and-after-school daycare centres. Hiking the rent, the comptroller argued, would help offset the funding gap the district is experiencing.
But the board is reluctant to raise the rents because, as one trustee wrote in a local paper Monday, the cost of child care for many parents in the district would have to go up dramatically. You can guess how that could be perceived by those living outside Vancouver; the board wants the province to subsidize families’ child-care costs.
It’s understood that many families in Vancouver are carrying sizable mortgages to pay for the high cost of housing. But why should a taxpayer in Burns Lake or Kamloops or Sooke help subsidize daycare for some of the country’s wealthiest people, living in some of the nation’s most expensive homes?
If the government is going to do that, it had better be prepared to subsidize daycare right across the province.
The Vancouver board is also in a financial jam, in part, because years ago it introduced junior kindergarten even though the province wasn’t funding it. Junior kindergarten is a wonderful idea. I’m sure every district in the province would love to have its own program. But most don’t because there’s no money to pay for it.
So how could the government ever give the Vancouver board dollars to run a nice-if-you-can-get-it program that the ministry doesn’t fund anywhere else? It would be political suicide."
June 15th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
@Aleks:
"Baby Boomers control over 80% of personal financial assets and more than 50% of discretionary spending power."
That's from Wikipedia. Does that sound like a generation living beyond its means?
June 15th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
There's nothing wrong with the CPP, the problem is with the Baby Boomers and their feeling of entitlement. It's not like CPP is disappearing and they suddenly have to live without that income. That would be a crisis. No, they're just whining because their post-retirement income will not provide them the lifestyle they think they deserve. What they don't understand is that there is no such thing as "deserve", there is only what they can afford and what they can't. If CPP isn't enough for them and they don't have a company pension, they should've figured that out 30 years ago and started saving.
If they were expecting to spend three months in Florida every year and are just now realizing they can't afford to, they have no one to blame but themselves. It's not the fault of the CPP that they were deluding themselves. It can't be that they were counting on selling their house for a huge profit and living off the windfall, because the market hasn't crashed yet. If they are retiring with a huge mortgage because they upsized their house right before retirement, or because they refinanced during the bubble to pay for renovations and consumer spending, they're worse than just ignorant and deserve to spend their retirement homeless and destitute.
The reality is that a lot of Baby Boomers have not just been failing to save for retirement, they've actually been living beyond their means for their entire lives. Now they're facing retirement and think they "deserve" to continue that lifestyle, which they couldn't ever really afford. This is the fable about the ant and the grasshopper on a generational level. Grasshoppers die in the winter, it's just a fact of life.