Vancouver RE Price Reductions

Yesterday we posted a link to an article about the high number of properties for sale in Vancouver. What’s possibly more interesting than the sheer number of listings in the very high number of price reductions we’re currently seeing. Yesterday Paulb shared numbers that showed 232 new listings and 56 sales, but nearly 3 times that number of price changes at 162.

We’ve seen many days where price changes have exceeded 200. Even with listings for the REBGV area nearing 19,000 Mclovin points out that we’re consistently seeing about 1% of total inventory drop their price every single day. That means about 5% of all listings in Vancouver are reducing their asking price each week.

169 Responses to “Vancouver RE Price Reductions”

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    Can someone supply comparable price change stats from 2008?

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    Inflation Adjustment Says:
    2

    Apart from a 8-10 month period in 2008 and early 2009, over the past 7 years the RE market has basically gone up. It has been a seller's paradise. Many real estate agents have only seen good times. Accordingly, I don't think there is the depth of knowledge/experience in your average RE agent to know how to properly price a property in a market that is uncertain and not on an upward trend. The result is overshooting on setting the original price.

    That is obviously a generalization. I am also aware that certain more experienced realtors try harder to get their clients to set a realistic price. Not only does this ensure that the realtor makes a sale but often this leads to a sale going at over list price. Some agents consciously do this so that they can advertise on their website that they have sold x houses at over list price.

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    FYI

    Detached housing for Dunbar and Southlands = 111 listings

    28 have already had price reductions

    3 have had price increases

    I know of several that were taken off the market and re listed at lower prices – game played by some realtors b/c they think price reductions may make sellor look desperate and also listing hits hotsheet new listings on MLS.

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    Boombust Says:
    4

    "I know of several that were taken off the market and re listed at lower prices…"

    I have seen the same thing in Coquitlam.

    For example, a fairly decent house on Albion St near Coquitlam Centre started in the mid-500K's and dropped down to 499K. Sat for months.

    The other day, it was relisted at $499K as "NEW!".

    Such BS.

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    Anonymous Says:
    5

    19,000 listings at 52 sales a day = 365 days of inventory!

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    Globello Says:
    6

    Holy cow,

    That was one helluva graph oneangryslav showed us yesterday about the shocking direction of US housing.

    Hate to jolt some of our isolated greater fools out of their slumber, but I thought it was worth showing again:
    http://www.naketcapitalism.com/2010/06/worst-home

    Enjoy!

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    Anonymous Says:
    7

    @Globello: Your link doesn't work…

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    superduperbulltime Says:
    8

    Bear every 24 year old male nurse in Vancouver can very easily buy condo no problem at all. How many male nurse in Vancouver bear? Probably a lot. How many other medical professional in Vancouver? Many more. That mean that together with rich asian and other yuppy waiting on sideline market is safe.

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    @Anonymous: 19000 listings at 220 sales(Tues) a day is 86 Days of inventory. Wow we went from a bull to bear market in one day! typical bear scat

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    ReductiMat Says:
    10

    Replace naket with naked:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/06/worst-home

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    Globello Says:
    11

    Sorry folks, try this:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/06/worst-home

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    Globello Says:
    12

    Thanks ReductiMat, you beat me to it.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    13

    Uh oh bear, RE going up in Commercial Drive area now that Italy is out of FIFA hifi. Money saved on autographed Italian football jersey and face paint can now be applied to extra mortgage payment. Pretty soon will be trading up to larger home with larger fountain on front lawn.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    14

    No bear talk of interest rates lately, this was supposed to be trigger, even god Garth said so. Now we see that 5 yr bond is less than 2.5, that is not high. All money pouring into Canadian bonds, Canada is land of strong and free. No you say? Doesn't matter, everybody else thinks so. Rates stay low, best bears can hope for is flat market. If male nurses are buying then market keep going up thanks to 2% mortgage.

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    @XXX: "I know of several that were taken off the market and re listed at lower prices"

    This is a price reduction, of course. High levels of listings and high levels of expiries. Hmmmmm…

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    south_slope Says:
    16

    @superduperbulltime: I'm a journeyman electrician in my mid 20's. My wage is close to what a nurse makes. My wife and I combine to make over 100K/yr. But because we have 2 kids in daycare and minivan payments we cannot afford a condo big enough to fit our whole family. So instead, we rent, for a fraction of the cost, and save a TON of money. If the market in vancouver continues to sky rocket forever we will either continue to rent (and retire millionaires) or leave. These nurses you speak of will have to do the same if they want to get married and raise families.

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    Love to Trolls Says:
    17

    SuperSmartBull & Superduperbulltime please don't stop posting.

    I used to find your posts annoying and a waste of space but now I find myself looking forward to them and scrolling towards the mini-font. Your fake accent and mindless drivel gives me a smile. Keep it coming all through the 30% drop!

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    sluggo Says:
    18

    (#5)

    "19,000 listings at 52 sales a day =365 days of inventory"

    ——————————————————–

    and 200 Price Reduction a day =48,000 PRs a year =Freefall

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    Vanrod Says:
    19

    @south_slope: Wow everyone on this board makes over 100 Grand. What a bunch of winners! Come one, somebody admit you have a family income under 100..anyone?

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    TrulySmartBear Says:
    20

    @SuperSmartBull clutches for straws and mutters without coherence, "No bear talk of interest rates lately, this was supposed to be trigger".

    Not matter any more. Different trigger already pulled. Bam, bam. Market collapsing. Fat lady singing.

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    Dan in Calgary Says:
    21

    "Come one, somebody admit you have a family income under 100..anyone?"

    Is there a prize?

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    south_slope Says:
    22

    @Vanrod:

    husband: $35/hr x 40hr/wk x 52wks = $72800

    wife: $24/hr x 30hr/wk x 52wks = $37440

    total = $110240

    thank you and yes I am a winner!

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    Vanrod Says:
    23

    @south_slope: thanks for the breakdown, you sure sound like a winner to me ;-)

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    sensibleone Says:
    24

    The VSB/NDP Farm Team and Union Front Lackeys are complaining that the education is underfunded. They will not admit to being overpaid parasites who have sucked up 92% of the education budget in wages and pension perks.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/public-secto

    Meanwhile some of these fully staffed ( kitchen staff included) have as few as 37 students and as many staff members (unionized).

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Twelve+Vancouver

    Hey Ho Hey Ho These Union Parasites Got to go.

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    superduperbulltime Says:
    25

    Bear real question is why living in condo downtown with kid? Downtown only for drunken 24 year old male nurse making 90k a year. No place for kid. Move to surrey or valley with other family man.

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    south_slope – let me guess: either BC govt or construction?

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    27

    Not only high earners here, but also several Nobel Price winners, a past US president, CEO of company that rhymes with Snapple, a couple of MP's that are spies, and the Pope. That is bear side only! But bulls only have realtors and sandwich board wearers here.

    All playing Rusky Roolet with 20 barrel gun looking for trigger of crash. Higher interest rate…click. Rich asians…click. High inventory…click. Keep trying bears, hopefull crash will come before retire. Otherwise looking for good deal at Sunnyside Manor retire home.

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    Junius Says:
    28

    Dear SuperSmartBull (oooh, the irony),

    Deaf, dumb and blind is no way to go through life. Market is over. The long, dry summer is upon us.

    The Real Estate Market is not like the Stock Market. It does not change over night.

    The market is currently re-postioning for many years of down ward prices.

    Denaibull is a sad condition. Get over it.

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    Look at the economic model and fundamentals. Strong housing will lead the B.C. economic recovery:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAk7_qM4w3s

    Who's your Daddy?

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    realpaul Says:
    30

    Unfortunatley the last time 'austerity' was introduced in Canada by the Chretien government with Paul Martin in Finance, Canadian taxpayers had their income and service taxes doubled. There was never any slow down in spending. The 'deficit' was all dumped on the taxpayers back… as if we were the ones who'd pissed away the money.

    If Flaherty is talking 'austerity' most likely we are in for a another tsunami of taxation. Is the HST that hits the average family up for an additional $1500 p/a just the first shot across the bow? I hazard to say 'yes'.

    http://www.financialpost.com/news/could+produce+m

    The first thing we need to do is to rationalize the greed and the fat in the 'social spending' which is just socialist code for 'paying egregious salaries for political expediancy'.

    Get tough on the shits that waste the money Jim, not the ones who earn it.

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    realpaul Says:
    31

    Couldn't resist this one.

    Alt A tsunami is creating an employment boom at some banks as foreclosures rise at such a rate that banks can't handle the calls. Bwahahahahahahahahaha

    Of course its differant here.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-23/bank-of-

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    Is it something special going on today? How come there are so many idiots posting today, like there is no tomorrow? Or is it that they aren't much busy cleaning up mess at home coz I couldn't visit and do their moms last night?

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    Anonymous Says:
    33

    @Prca: The only idiot I've seen post so far today is you.

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    So far the Port Moody and Coquitlam areas I watch are completely dead. I posted on May 11th about my friend trying to sell his condo in Coquitlam, at the time it was on the market for 30 days. It's now nearing 90 days and 4 price reductions and still no takers. I haven't seen any units in his building sell, though a couple have expired. Nor have any units sold in the building I'm in, though there are 'only' 6 compared to the 13 he's competing with.

    Our other friends are trying to sell their house in Coquitlam. Nearing 60 DOM, but they refuse to reduce their price because they will not sell it for "less than it's worth". This sounds familiar. The exact same words were uttered by my coworker in '08 – he sold his place for 20% under list 6 months later.

    I've also been watching the two Port Moody towers on Nootka Way (Sahalee and Nahanni). They peaked at a combined 39 listings (currently 22 in Sahalee!) but they're sitting at a combined 33 now. Where did those listings go? Craigslist. There are at least 10 rentals up on craigslist for those towers right now. I was looking for a rental in that area in May and there wasn't much to choose from, now it'd be a tough decision.

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    900kCrackHouse Says:
    35

    Long time lurker decides to post for first time. Any bets on if I'm a bull or a bear?

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    @Anonymous:

    What do you mean I'm the only idiot? What about superduperbulltime, Vanrod, SuperSmartBull, JimTan, etc.? They all call me "uncle" and I always give them candies whenever I visit their homes.

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    Paulb. Says:
    37

    @900kCrackHouse: 100% bear

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    At least he's admitting being an idiot…

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    39

    @900kCrackHouse:

    Long time lurker decides to post for first time. Any bets on if I’m a bull or a bear?

    Hmmm…"$900,000 crack house"…?

    I'd have to say that you're most likely equivocal about the future direction of the Vancouver real estate market. Am I right?

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    40

    @exx: Thanks for the anecdote(s). I mentioned previously that my sister is selling her place in Coquitlam. The house was built in the 1950s and it's in a fairly popular area–north of Como Lake Avenue and between Mariner and Gatensbury. She and her hubby listed it at about what comps had been selling for the last few months, while the RE agent had wanted them to list it for about 40K less.

    It has been listed for just under 2 weeks now and they've had 3 or 4 showings without an offer. They will be hosting their first open house this weekend. The RE agent doesn't know me so I may just drop by and have a look pretending to be a lookie-loo. I'll keep everyone posted.

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    paulb. Says:
    41

    @oneangryslav2:

    I made my guess without reading his name. Ha ha

    In honour of the new guy, here's a taste:

    New Listings 70

    Price Changes 42

    Sold Listings 27

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    Tony Danza Says:
    42

    Does anyone have any recent insight/updates into the Okanagan market, specifically the Vernon area? I heard that they're still building new homes up there with massive MOI baking in the sun…

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    Anoymous Says:
    43

    Can anybody explain why the CULT index has basically been static for the last 2 weeks?

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    @Anoymous: Because (new listings – sales – expiries) has been pretty much level. Not just for downtown condos but across the board.

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    @paulb.: sell list is over 30%! You will rent forever, suckers!

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    sensibleone Says:
    46

    VSB has concentrated the school closings on the NDP voting east side. Is this because they want to stir up anger in these ridings and sway votes towards the NDP in the coming election. Could they be that cynical? Of course they are you fools. The politics of union assholes using kids as human shields goes on.

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    south_slope Says:
    47

    @superduperbulltime: Do you really think a drunken, 24 yr old male nurse is going to spend the majority of his hard earned money on overpriced downtown real estate? No way!

    In most cases he will either

    a) rent & spend his savings on hookers and blow….

    b) move to another city where his skills are still in high demand yet the cost of real estate is a fraction of what it is here.

    Please correct me if im wrong, but doesnt BC still have a nursing shortage because they all graduate and move away?

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    south_slope Says:
    48

    @Annon: Construction, union, currently laid off :(

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    anonymous456 Says:
    49

    This talk of "houses sitting on the market for months, price reductions" reminds me a lot of what happened in the US. I used to visit Ben Jones' housing bubble blog quite frequently, I followed it right from around 2005-current. First it was filled with media stories of "housing prices going up, never coming down, RE always goes up!" Then things slowed a bit and the talk was "buyers' strike, sellers don't want to reduce prices, things are just kind of level" Honestly, it got really boring so I stopped visiting the site. Nothing was happening, listings just stagnating on the market, buyers not buying (too much), sellers not selling. Then one day, months later, I went back to the site and I said "HOLY SH&T!!!" It was as if there was blood on my screen, there were so many sad stories of houses selling for 50% less, people losing their houses, sad sad sad. It was absolutely shocking to read about this happening-though it had been expected for years. I think the "buyers strike" lasted about 2 years or so, maybe less. And you all know what happened next.

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    Devore Says:
    50

    @exx: I was looking for a rental in May too, slim pickings on the good selections, but prices were already being reduced on viewing. Many more listings now, just two months later, some listings that are still unfilled dropped prices, and things seem a little better priced in general. Although lots of amateur landlords too, not sure I'd want to deal with them.

    Things may get interesting when lease is up next year.

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    @anonymous456:

    as Albert Einstein said (like a bear)…

    “It’s not that I’m so smart, it’s just that I stay with problems longer.“

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    patriotzed Says:
    52

    @sensibleone:

    VSB has concentrated the school closings on the NDP voting east side. Is this because they want to stir up anger in these ridings and sway votes towards the NDP in the coming election.

    What "coming election"?

    I usually don't comment on this sort of post, but the irony of the content combined with the handle is just too much. Of course if the VSB had closed schools on the West Side, people would say that they were punishing the residents for voting Liberal.

    And I neither know about nor care about the VSB funding issue so I'm not trying to defend anyone.

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    I think most who are still looking to buy have been on strike for years now. That's why sales have been relatively poor of late.

    Striking implies collectively withholding something another party needs. I think the "buyers strike" is just an aggregate inability and unwillingness to pay high prices but I don't think it's organized.

    Sellers can never strike, even if they wanted to, because the reality is nobody really needs what they have.

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    54

    patriotized:

    Most incumbents do their dirty work before or at the mid – term of their mandates. Voters memories are short.

    VSB has been exposed as toads to the hired help at the VSB. School Trustees tend to have nose rings implanted, I haven't heard one ever criticize the way their own school district works.

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    55

    To all the Gen Xers etc : Welcome to history repeating itself.

    Justice delayed is justice denied.

    History delayed = reality will bite with a vengeance.

    RE has clearly hit the top of the roller coaster.

    Did anyone think it was sustainable?

    We have been sold out by our politicians and banksters.

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    900kCrackHouse Says:
    56

    I live in a tower in the Brentwood area. Six units have changed hands this spring. I don't think any of them have stayed on the market for longer than a week, including the one that just sold two weeks ago. One unit that was listed last Monday already has a few offers on it according to the realtor. It ain't cooling off yet at least in my tower. :(

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    Stochastic PDE Says:
    57

    RBC and TD lower mortgage rates:

    http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2010/06/24/royal

    Huh? Yes. Do not assume any of you (bears or bulls) can divine the future.

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    Stochastic PDE Says:
    58

    @jesse: Depends, do prices show what people really need? What does anyone _really_ need?

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    59

    Buyers now ? …..are still drinking the Kool-Aid

    As the market cools, those potential buyers start looking over their shoulder as to job security etc. It becomes a vicious spiral. aka Flusshhh.

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    @Stochastic PDE: "What does anyone _really_ need?"

    Shelter, and people can get that by renting. If all buyers collectively decided to pull their houses off the market, nothing would change. The same number of houses would exist no matter what.

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    The last nail in the coffin of the ownership society.

    http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/06/24/were-fr

    Soon to be seen on Canadian shores.

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    Run Buddy Run Says:
    62

    Go Argentina Go

    You can say 523 listings over last two days and 267 sales that went through mls system which makes more than 50% sell list ratio or you can split them in odd numbers to please bears one day and bulls other day.however, you can not stop the collapse of listings.I have just noticed that agent will's stat that shows prices are crossing the property ladder upward day by day.While today's game is over but back to fifa in high definition because it's worth watching fast action re-play in high definition even telus offered VOD for any of the match that has taken place so far.

    Go Argentina Go

    Run Buddy Run

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    Tony Danza Says:
    63

    @900kCrackHouse: You should get this information out to all those idiots that keep dropping their prices! Hurry before it's too late!

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    DaMann Says:
    64

    I think some people are still a little too quick on the "it's crashing" trigger. I'm still stunned at the sales volumes, interest rates have just been lowered and the inventory has stalled around 19k ( still don't understand this as we still have net gain on listings everyday) It seems like it's slowing but we've been down this road before. Until Isee sales drop off a cliff ( one day of 54 sales does not trend make) then Iwill rejoice. Until then, I sit tight and keep my mouth shut and watch.

    We seem to have picked up some tools from Realestate Talks forum though and that is quite ufortunate.

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    sluggo Says:
    65

    Looks like the Johnny Horton blog is popping more than just a few vital springs….with or without moderators.

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    Junius Says:
    66

    DaMann,

    The Real Estate market is not the stock market. It does not drop and rise in a day.

    No smart bear is thinking it will happen quickly. Listings will rise, sales will be flat. This period will last for a number of months.

    The real market drops will be in the Fall.

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    sensibleone Says:
    67

    #52, really dude, are you like six??? You don't think theres any dirty politics going on down at the NDP farm team VSB????? I wish I could be simple minded, the world must seem like a better place.

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    The downtrend is obvious, but unfortunately I also don't think that we will see a massive blood bath in the housing market either. There are simply too much stupid money around, and panic usually don't set in until MOI reaches a much higher level or interest rates rises drastically.

    However I am happy to settle with a 5-10% drop per year until the prices get to a more affordable level. Even with a 5% drop, $40k of equity will still be evaporated every year – not small change by any means.

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    DaMann Says:
    69

    @Junius:

    I realize that, and that is exactly why I think people are too quick to get excited. People are getting all excited about a 56 sale day, but the day before was over 200! All I'm saying is that people are too quick on the trigger. I agree fall will be the real phaze in all this but I sure don't like seeing the interest rates going down again. We have had "emergency" interest rates long after there has been any emergency. I'm not liking the way the economies are being artificially juiced. Yes it will end but it's been a looooooooooooong time now.

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    DaMann Says:
    70

    @Raz:

    I do think it will end bad, very bad. You can't have an economy built on RE and have a slow down in RE and not have it end badly. So many people have bought purely for profit, if there is no profit to be made a lot of these people will be tired of living cash poor month to month due to massive mortgage payments. It just seems to be taking a long time to sink in, but when it does it will SINK.

    I can see it playing out with a 20% drop in the first year ( when it starts, now maybe?), 10% the next then a 2 or 3 years of 5% drops. I think it will overshoot the bottom much like it did going up.

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    superduperbulltime Says:
    71

    @sluggo: Bear why bother with attack horton blog? Your bear attack fail everytime just like your prediction bear.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    72

    @sensibleone:

    You don’t think theres any dirty politics going on down at the NDP farm team VSB?????

    And where did I say there was no "dirty politics"?

    I just find it absurd that a party that was pilloried for handing out goodies to its supporters in the 90's (and justly so in many cases), is now accused of victimizing its supporters as sort of some nefarious plot.

    I mean, maybe if they are closing schools on the East Side, it's because they just couldn't make a case for keeping them open? Don't you think they'd really rather shut Shaughnessy Elementary or something?

    This really is the city where logic takes a holiday.

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    Recently Bearish Says:
    73

    New business week article on the Vancouver housing market:

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_2

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    Anonymous Says:
    74

    @south_slope: "@Annon: Construction, union, currently laid off :( "

    They have merged several key hospital units and will shut down one MH in a few years. Many nurses on-call have less hours with less take home pay. The lucky ones are required to work 2-day shift (8×2) + 2-night shift (12×2) per week. Btw there are less patients at the hospital with some units having more nurses bore with nothing to do.

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    south_slope Says:
    75

    @patriotz: i know champlain heights annex in east vancouver is closing because its only about half capacity, and the main school is only a 10 min walk away.

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    Anonymous Says:
    76

    @patriotzed:

    ok I know the answer from the horses' mouths

    the parents sent their kids to westside schools

    and those in the top 10 list are located outside their neighborhood.

    It has nothing to do with the political parties, but the Fraser Institute.

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    south_slope Says:
    77

    @Anonymous: "Many nurses on-call have less hours with less take home pay."

    is it common for these nurses leave the province and find better work elsewhere?

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    Inventory Says:
    78

    5 business days to go and unit sales for this month are collapsing.

    June Unit sales

    1995 = 1997

    1996 = 2424

    1997 = 2315

    1998 = 1775

    1999 = 2446

    2000 = 2033

    2001 = 2914

    2002 = 2768

    2003 = 3643

    2004 = 3642

    2005 = 4485

    2006 = 4064

    2007 = 4336

    2008 = 2478

    2009 = 4319

    2010 = 2375***June 23

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    hombre Says:
    79

    Dunno or care all that much about school closures, but I think some of you who are digging in for a long wait for the crash are underestimating the unprecedented number of price reductions.

    Surely, it's just a matter of time until even the dimmer lights in the class will realize that there's no rush to jump into a market where sellers are trampling each other to cut their asking prices…..and that can only accelerate the slide.

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    Anonymous Says:
    80

    @south_slope:

    Not anymore. The pay and benefits have been good since NDP flung out of Victoria (j/k, not trying to insult any NDPers). Nurses can afford to be choosy. A few resent the 12-hour night shift and prefer only day shift. They also have sidelines working/owning post-natal homes for out-of-country mothers, acupuncture & TMC.

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    Tony Danza Says:
    81

    @Recently Bearish: Typical useless bubble reporting, "The Chinese are coming", "not making anymore land", "everyone in Canada puts 20% down", "Obama loves us, he really does!".

    Then the lunatic fringe bears weigh in Garth, some "bearish" realtor and a school teacher, nice.

    Nice analysis.

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    Anonymous Says:
    82

    @JimTan: "Who’s my Daddy?"

    TAN Ah Kow aka Mr. 20% who goes around discretely with envelopes in his briefcase.

    You should have stuck to your role as a "bear", way more fun!!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    paulb. Says:
    83

    New Listings 206

    Price Changes 138

    Sold Listings 105

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Tony Danza Says:
    84

    @Inventory: But… but… 960kcrackshack said buyers can't get enough Burnaby condos! These numbers must be wrong, oh noes!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    ulsterman Says:
    85

    @Vanrod:

    You missed something VanRod! Everyone also saves a "TON" of money. They can barely keep track – just gushes in.

    Sorry, but i make fairly good money and find it hard to save significant amounts while raising a family here in Burnaby. Just because i did not decide to buy the 800k house i live in and rent for way less does not mean i save the difference. I couldn't have afforded the mortgage payments in the first place. I find that my rent is about what i could have afforded in the first place, so really i don't consider myself to be "saving tons of cash" by renting.

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    Recently Bearish Says:
    86

    According to Paul B's final daily sales numbers as posted on this site, these are the daily averages by week for Apr/May/June:

    Apr 6-9 – 195.3 (156.2)*

    Apr 10-16 – 190.4

    Apr 19-23 – 190

    Apr 26-30 – 139.4

    May 3-7 – 161.4

    May 10-14 – 150

    May 17-21 – 177

    May 25-28 – 146.8 (117.4)*

    May 31-Jun4-172.6

    Jun 7 -11 – 130.6

    Jun 14-18 – 141.8

    Jun 21-24 – 120.3**

    *Lower number is including zero sales on holiday mondays.

    ** Mon-Thurs, estimating 120 by end of today.

    Other than a few slight anomalies, these numbers show a relatively steady decrease in sales over the past 3 months in what should have been the busiest time of the year.

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    Devore Says:
    87

    @DaMann: Maybe emergency rates are still in because, despite soothing assurances to the contrary, there is still an emergency on?

    What do you expect them to do? They've painted themselves into a corner. By opening up on the emergency with all barrels and running out of ammo, they've realized that reversing the course now will be more disastrous than had they done nothing at all to begin with?

    That's the real threat, and seduction, of compounding debt. Borrowing more gets you to the next day, but eventually there will be no more money to borrow, and the hole will be too deep to climb out of.

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    Absinthe Says:
    88

    @ulsterman: I'm with you – we make less than 100K/year, and we're paying in rent about what we can afford to pay. We do have some small savings – straight into RESPs for the kids – and starting in September will have an increase in income, but there's not a lot left over at the end of the month. I'm bearish for reasons other than our imminent launch into the housing market – but I will say, during the downturn, our family went through a total of three layoffs due to businesses closing or outsourcing, and I'm *really* glad we didn't have a mortgage to cope with. We managed to set up our own business and had the flexibility to move, which made a huge difference. I'd have to be really confident of both our savings and income in order to buy.

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    @Raz:

    A 5% drop every year don't happen. This is a common misconception by analysts as well.

    After a bull run-up like the one we've had, either prices will moderate slowly for a year or so and capitulate or they will turn back up (in the event of a high-growth scenario – which just isn't going to happen).

    Prices are sticky and the lemmings are still on the "I'd better get in while rates are low" bent.

    But once prices fall 10%, unless there is a tremendous bout of optimism and economic (and high-quality jobs) growth, that's when you'll start to see the high-ratio owners and specuvestors head for the exits.

    Then you have the 20% waterfall in a matter of months.

    That is what is going to happen. I guarantee it.

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    south_slope Says:
    90

    @ulsterman: keep in mind, not all renters pay someones mortgage. you can rent a co-op townhouse for a 1/3 sometimes even 1/4 the cost of owning a townhouse of the same size & location.

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    paulb. Says:
    91

    New Listings 218

    Price Changes 143

    Sold Listings 108

    18,880

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    Ann Ong Says:
    92

    Anybody else catch CBC's 'On the Coast' on the drive home this evening? Yet more presales buyers are worried because "the units have dropped in value". To say my jaw dropped is an understatement. I couldn't believe the guy being interviewed led with that. It gave me the impression that this was a valid position to nullify a contract.

    See the Interviews section at http://www.cbc.ca/onthecoast/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Ann Ong:

    People listen to the CBC?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @paulb.:

    It looks like listings have peaked for the summer and sales are holding up. Nothing to see here. Check back in the Fall guys.

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    95

    @Dave.: You sound like an informed person. In fact, millions listen to the CBC.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @oneangryslav2:

    Sarcasm…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    97

    @Dave.: Ah! I'm usually good at noticing sarcasm.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Tony Danza Says:
    98

    @Ann Ong: I wonder if Larry Campbell is one of the douches trying to crocodile tear his way out of his obligations for his two units?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    paulb. Says:
    99

    @Ann Ong:

    Nice. CBC is not letting them off the hook easily.

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    scullboy Says:
    100

    Holy crap, the loonies have come out of the woodwork! Reading this blog makes me feel like a guy who grabbed the last seat in the lifeboat while everyone laughed and said the ship was unsinkable. I also feel like I got the last pitcher of Mai Tais off the boat too. It's kind of fun to watch all the yelling and screaming.

    It's a sad day when I feel like I'm one of the few voices of reason here. Seriously. I'm the dude who pushed along the infamous tipping thread and even *I* think many of you have totally lost it. It's AWESOME, but then that's coming from a guy whose favorite movie is "Zombie Strippers".

    @anon prof: While I find your story difficult to believe it sucks that some of the idiots are calling you stuff like "drunken male nurse". I hope you've got a thick skin, and feel free to give as good as you get.

    @ sensibleone: I love the idea of union workers using kids as human shields. I can just see some crusty ol' fat – assed Boomer teacher hiding bhind a little 4 year old girl in pigtails with a yardstick against the kid's throat, screaming "GIVE MY MY INDEXED PENSION OR THE GINGER GETS IT!"

    I love superbulltime's posts. I get it now dude, I do. You're a bear doing a parody of bulls. You're not a foreigner at all, clearly you grew up in Canada, English is your first language and you're just here to stir up trouble. Well played, sir (or madam). Well played.

    Looks like I may be in line for a promotion very shortly, I'll be back in Vancouver soon and Im back into a scull. For those of you who know anything about rowing I pulled a 1K erg test @ 3:34.4 …. not bad for a guy who hasn't been on the water in 2 years and whose diet is heavy on the butter and cream. :)

    Now, on to housing.

    I had an idea about what may be delaying the ol' stampede. Home owners (especially ones with "investment properties" have a number of options:

    1) They can list at a high price then delist

    2) They can list at a lower price

    3) they can list at a higher price (laugh if you will but we've seen it)

    4) They can try to rent it instead

    5) They can try to sell the house outside of the agent/MLS route (hello Craigslist!)

    I was wondering how many people might be going for either (4) or (5). Is there an easy way to measure that? Has anyone heard anything?

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    superboomtime Says:
    101

    Like I say before most bear are loser broke can't afford even rental never buy ever so why dream bear? Put down bong and start working harder for family you loser. Us bull were studying hard the math and science in school while you smoke weed and drink beer bear. That's why you rent forever.

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    Anonymous Says:
    102

    @Dave.: see post 86. Nice try.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    bridgeman Says:
    103

    @south_slope

    "@ulsterman: keep in mind, not all renters pay someones mortgage. you can rent a co-op townhouse for a 1/3 sometimes even 1/4 the cost of owning a townhouse of the same size & location."

    The more accurate expression in Vancouver would be: " Vancouver Renters- paying a fraction of someone else's mortgage" or "Vancouver Renters- subsidizing a small part of the money that other people are throwing away"

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    Boombust Says:
    104

    I am jsut so riled up! STEAM is coming from my ears! Jeepers! What a thing to say!

    You are SO maddening! I just can't think of enough bad words to describe your awful comments! What are people to do with the likes of you! Gosh! I just don't know what to say…

    Fuck off.

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    The Chinese government insisted on the HST

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    Boombust Says:
    106

    That message was for Superboomtime, BTW!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Dave. Says:
    107

    Freako come back, I promise to take it easy on ya! No one has a cogent argument any more?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    108

    @Dave.:

    Bears no longer need to make any sense. The market is crashing as we speak. Just wait for the month end stats.

    Let's hear a bullish argument if you got the stones.

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    scullboy Says:
    109

    Boombust,

    Why do you let these guys get to you? For one thing, they're anonymous posters on a blog. For another, I don't even think they're real bulls.

    Geez, only in Vancouver is the term "renter" an insult bad enough to get someone's blood boiling. I'd say pick up the bong, take a hit and go for a walk. For all its faults Van's beautiful. Go get yourself some fresh air and for God's sake don't take these people seriously or if you must, consider them the first sign that the wheels are coming off the machine.

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    Dave. Says:
    110

    @Anonymous: Do you have a land making machine?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Canada is a loser country cannot even make the soccer world cup when SLOVOKIA makes the 1/4's

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    Tony Danza Says:
    112

    @Dave.: I don't have a land maker but I saw one tearing down some shitty old buildings downtown the other day that will be replaced with a hundred or so new homes.

    If you want your own land making machine you can buy, rent or lease one from Finning.

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    elvince Says:
    113

    @Dave #110: I do. It's called a crane.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    bums up2 Says:
    114

    "@anon prof: While I find your story difficult to believe it sucks that some of the idiots are calling you stuff like “drunken male nurse”. I hope you’ve got a thick skin, and feel free to give as good as you get."

    superduperbulltime is a parody/satire poster. A bit hit and miss but when he hits he hits hard.

    See: reference to Vancouver being "close to forest (maybe that why so many bear)" and also bears shaving gold to buy bread during "zombie apocalypse" (metaphor for society falling apart due to post-fiat currency collapse).

    Referencing our Anon 24 year old 100+k "professional" as a drunk male nurse was a shot at his ignorance of fundamentals related to RE, I think.

    Or maybe just a cheap shot and a troll, who knows! :-)

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    Tony Danza Says:
    115

    @Dave.: Next?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Dave. Says:
    116

    @Tony Danza: I've got the balls and have put my money where my mouth is. What do you have?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Dave. Says:
    117

    @elvince: Any idiot can get a crane, try getting a permit at city hall. This town is run by left wing nutjobs.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Punter Says:
    118

    I have definitely got the money and have put my balls where my mouth is.

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    Tony Danza Says:
    119

    @Dave.:

    Well let's see I made over a billion on RE in the last decade and live a life of leisure in my 26,000 sqft mansion in Pt Grey. Oh I also have a 14" unit and Katie Holmes had my baby.

    Newsflash moron: you're an anonymous poster on the internet, by definition you have no balls. Next!

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    Anonymous Says:
    120

    why would you put your balls in your mouth?

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    Drachen Says:
    121

    @Dave.:

    Same old Dave.

    D: "You can't make new land!"

    Smart People: "No but there are lots of underused portions of the city that can be put to more efficient use!"

    D: "But City Hall, they make it sooo difficult!"

    SP: "Wait a minute, just a second ago you couldn't get land period, now that I've shown you where the land can be reclaimed you're bitching about city hall?"

    D: "Yeah, bunch of Liberals, Commies is more like it actually, they won't let anyone develop properties."

    SP: "But Vancouver has gone through the biggest housing boom in it's history recently, don't you call that developing properties?"

    D: "It's sooooo expensive though, I mean, those condo developments, they take a lot of effort and time to get approval."

    SP: "Oooookay. That might explain why condos are so expensive, how do you explain the cost of land?"

    D: "…………………" (comes back two days later to argue a completely different subject, or even the same one, using the same tired (and false) arguments)

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    Strataman Strataman Says:
    122

    @BOB: You mean you watch that dumbassed game for retards and fairies? Wow I didn't think any body with half a brain actually watched soccer. Hope to hell Canada never lowers itself to play that game. HOCKEY!! a mans sport! Soccer for primadonnas!!!

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    Best place on meth Says:
    123

    Dave,

    Did you know that they had a land making machine when they expanded Coal Harbour out into what was once water?

    http://www.seecoalharbour.com/convention/conventi

    They've been doing the same thing in Dubai as well, but on a much larger scale with their massive land making machine.

    http://www.economywatch.com/images/palm-island-du

    In Japan, they've got a kick ass land making machine that even built an entire airport out in the ocean.

    http://www.pref.osaka.jp/cn/attraction/visit/KIX/

    In fact, large parts of the Netherlands and New Orleans are built on land that was simply "made".

    See how easy it is Dave, there are land making machines everywhere.

    Isn't education fun?

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    elvince Says:
    124

    @Dave: 20k sq feet of land+ a crane and I can multiply the land by about 50 times. That's what I call a land-making machine. Now STFU.

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    registereduser Says:
    125

    "Uh oh bear, RE going up in Commercial Drive area now that Italy is out of FIFA hifi. Money saved on autographed Italian football jersey and face paint can now be applied to extra mortgage payment. Pretty soon will be trading up to larger home with larger fountain on front lawn."

    Some of this stuff is brilliant. Stop voting him down!

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    Drachen Says:
    126

    @Strataman:

    "Soccer for primadonnas!!!"

    Apparently not, didn't you hear the Italians failed to advance?

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    acefupn Says:
    127

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2

    No surprise that people are trying to get out of their presale contracts, but interesting that still only 36 of the 473 remaining units have been sold.

    So far, 13 units are listed on mls.ca, all in the same building.

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    Joshua Says:
    128

    Argh… this website used to be a nice refuge from the idiocy on RET. Now its back to being almost unbearable. (<– haha, unBEARable…) PaulB, can you start your website again, so I don't have to wade through this garbage to get my dailies??

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    129

    @registereduser:

    “Uh oh bear, RE going up in Commercial Drive area now that Italy is out of FIFA hifi. Money saved on autographed Italian football jersey and face paint can now be applied to extra mortgage payment. Pretty soon will be trading up to larger home with larger fountain on front lawn.”

    Some of this stuff is brilliant. Stop voting him down!

    I agree; that guy is a performance artist. Some good stuff. But it's not the size of the fountain that matters, but the rate of flow.

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    Dave. Says:
    130

    @Tony Danza: Sounds like you have a boat load of missed opportunities. I don't have the time to school you, i've been super busy. Come back in the fall and ask me about a bet. At least you're direct, some of the posters here are disengenous.

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    Chilled Says:
    131

    @Ann Ong: Ann Ong Says:

    …………….I couldn’t believe the guy being interviewed led with that. It gave me the impression that this was a valid position to nullify a contract.

    +++++++++++++++

    Too bad is isn't. This would shut the realturds and proselytizers up pronto.

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    Anonymous Says:
    132

    @Drachen: good answer! :-)

    Strataman (just havin fun)

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    McLovin Says:
    133

    Another net 100

    19,000 by Friday

    Another 0.75% of the ENTIRE inventory dropping prices

    Sales collapsing (realtors getting 3rd jobs)

    People in the Valley getting very desperate

    Real Estate no longer the topic of conversation at cocktail parties

    Renter no longer a dirty word

    Another happy Thursday in the place where Real Estate never goes down. This market is toast! The multi-year bear market has begun.

    Bears sit back and enjoy it, your patience will pay off. This will be a multi-year grind down interrupted by an occasional 5% monthly drop.

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    The Source Says:
    134

    “Uh oh bear, RE going up in Commercial Drive area now that Italy is out of FIFA hifi. Money saved on autographed Italian football jersey and face paint can now be applied to extra mortgage payment. Pretty soon will be trading up to larger home with larger fountain on front lawn.”

    Some of this stuff is brilliant. Stop voting him down!

    I agree, this guy is clever, funny. I wonder if he is the fake Dave. poster too.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    The Dave. posts are not me. Somebody is posting under my name.

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    @The Source:

    Good on you for picking up on that. Thanks.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @acefupn: My god, those sales are worse than I thought. Rennie, I hearby revoke your 'condo King' title. The King is dead!!

    The city is going to lose 100's of millions on this deal.

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    Anonymouse Says:
    138

    @Ann Ong: That interview was infuritating. Even THEIR LAWYER admits that if the value had not declined then the buyers wouldn't be pursuing a case. It sounded like the lawyer didn't even buy into his own clients' arguments. I loved how the lawyer said that the value of the units are even much lower than what they are CURRENTLY selling at. Ha ha. That should help out sales, shouldn't it? These people can suck it and I hope they lose their shirts. They knowingly bought way above market value (even for that time) and it bit them in the ass. Too bad.

    How do some posters here use the quoting function on this site? i.e. with the indentation and the vertical line>

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    [blockquote]blah blah blah[/blockquote]

    replace [ ] with < >

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    Ok. This CBC story is fun, but they are missing out on the main story–that the OV is a TOTAL financial, urban, and civic DISASTER.

    How long until those stories start hitting the MSM?

    The story is just sitting there waiting–but the pressure from the city, the media, and all the PTB is immense to make this project a 'go'.

    Who will be the first to say the emperor has no clothes?

    Well, actually, we here were the first. But who will be the first non-crazy blogger to report the truth in the MSM?

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    People believing their presales are guaranteed investments are complete morons.

    If I bought a presale I'd go over the contract with somebody who is qualified to understand it.

    Hope these folks get taken to the cleaners.

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    142

    @Anonymouse:

    How do some posters here use the quoting function on this site? i.e. with the indentation and the vertical line

    Use the blockquote tag. This is the material you want quoted.

    Except, insert "blockquote" in place of "bl…ote".

    Cheers.

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    Do you remember Rennie's grand strategy? Hold on to the inventory and sell it over the next two years?

    How's that workin' for you Bob?

    How long will all that 'high end' retail (ooh! London Drugs! Garsh, we don't have that back home, do we Martha?) closes doors, given that there are pretty much no people living there?

    Any guesses on how long that big barn that was promised to be a 'high end' restaurant will stay empty? Forever? ding ding–we have a winner!

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    144

    @oneangryslav2: I screwed up, but someone beat me to it anyway.

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    @VHB:

    The problem with OV, in my opinion, is that it has too many high end units in a yet to be high end area. Once everything else gets built up in the southeast False Creek area, it will be a prime location. But it isn't yet and so it will sell slowly. Let's remember that this was the highest priced piece of land to sell in Canada per ft2 of developable area (I believe it still is). But, it definitely isn't the most prime spot in the country. So, Millennium was swimming upstream on Day 1 IMO. The premium they paid was simply for the future marketing benefit of having done an Olympic Village.

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    From cbc website:

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2

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    From article:

    "We have buyers going, 'Wow, I love the hardwood floors and the view and the sub-zero [freezer],'" said Rennie.

    The 473 remaining units went on the market in May and 36 have been sold so far, according to Bob Rennie, a Vancouver condominium marketer who the city has hired on a contract for two years to sell the project.

    The buyers are unhappy that there's a parking lot where there was supposed to be a park, that washers and dryers have not been installed in their units and that their $5,000 fireplaces are defective, said Baynham.

    ——-

    What sad excuses to try to get out of the agreement. Im sure the washer/dryer issue will be dealt with and they probably don't even know how to run their fireplaces properly. If they are defective they will be replaced. And too bad about your desired parking lot.

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    Vanrod Says:
    148

    @The Source: Friday is tomorrow you know? 19K by tomorrow is basically impossible. Why bother posting stuff that you know is wrong

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    Vanrod Says:
    149

    Sorry thats for McLovin…he was posting the bogus predictions

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    @G: Thanks for the link.

    A few cosmetic fixups by the developer and their claims won't have a leg to stand on.

    Sorry about your luck, presale buyers. But pardon us in advance if we don't sympathize.

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    Kim Jong-il buy 3 Says:
    151

    That CBC radio interview is pure Gold!!! I'll bet my left nut the same thing is going to happen with that new building in Richmomd.

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    chopper Says:
    152

    @VHB: The city is going to lose 100’s of millions on this deal.

    Exactly! The million dollar question is – who's going to bail the city out? Looking at the bigger picture, who's going to bail the CMHC out when it all goes belly up? I know it's been discussed on this blog before, their retained earnings, etc. but how big are their cash reserves, does this money get grabbed by the Feds? Have they put some away for a rainy day?

    I honestly think the upcoming crash may crush our economy. I think the average condo in Van will lose about $150k over the next couple of years, and a large percentage of flippers are going to walk away leaving the CMHC holding the bag. I think the impending crash in Vancouver and Toronto alone will be in the 10's of billions, maybe even 100B? At any rate the feds are going to have to swallow this one in the end while they're already running a deficit of $50B. I think this will have a huge impact on the fed's ability to borrow and the value of the CAD. any thoughts?

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    On the Olympic Village presale front, there is a very good chance the places Rennie will be marketing will soon be below what the presale buyers paid. News story with angry presale suckers buyers claiming unfair treatment coming soon!

    The whole concept the OV is going to recoup the City's money is starting to look a bit shaky.

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    junius Says:
    154

    I divorced my wife over nothing!

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    anonymous Says:
    155

    I've heard Richmond called a lot of things, but never effluent:

    V826361

    "Investors should take note!! A fully furnished hotel suite in the Hilton Vancouver Airport Hotel at the heart of DT Richmond!! Effluent Richmond is the Pacific Gateway to Canada…"

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    acefupn Says:
    156

    I really like the OV – I would be willing to buy there once the prices drop 50%.

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    From Wikipedia:

    Effluent is defined by the United States Environmental Protection Agency as “wastewater – treated or untreated – that flows out of a treatment plant, sewer, or industrial outfall. Generally refers to wastes discharged into surface waters”.[1] The Compact Oxford English Dictionary defines effluent as “liquid waste or sewage discharged into a river or the sea”.[2]

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    Tony Danza Says:
    158

    @anonymous: Where the hell is the "heart" of downtown Richmond? Where the hell is downtown Richmond?

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    I looked up what was on the public MLS for the oly village. Results here.

    1 BR range from just over 500K to just under 700K.

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    Anonymous Says:
    160

    @VHB: if the city is losing money on the OV, maybe they should raise residential property taxes!

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    doubladay Says:
    161

    "effluent"

    Hilarious!

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    Tony Danza Says:
    162

    @VHB: Drop those prices down to around 250k for a 1 bed with view and I'd consider purchasing if the seller was willing to drop their price to 220k.

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    Kim Jong-il buy 3 Says:
    163

    Tony Danza Says:

    June 24th, 2010 at 10:25 pm

    @anonymous: Where the hell is the “heart” of downtown Richmond? Where the hell is downtown Richmond?

    I don't think there is a Heart; it’s more like a Bowel or perhaps Small Intestine.

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    900kCrackHouse Says:
    164

    I know people that worked on the designs / engineering work for the OV buildings. Apparently it was quite the rush job, and quality was definately sacrificed to get these buildings completed on time.

    If the people involved behind the scenes are worried about the quality, then I wouldn't touch these buildings with a 10 foot pole. Would't be surprised if these building start leaking in a few years.

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    Newcomer Says:
    165

    @Joshua:

    I second the call for a return to a Paul B blog. It's not that I don't appreciate this blog, but there are a lot of silly comments.

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    realpaul Says:
    166

    Rennie and the COV should be in touch with SoupNutz about the OV. Apparently the DimSum crowd hasn't heard about the view and amenities that are there for the taking, Soup Dribble could maybe get the word out. Where are all the billionaire Chinese buyers that Soupface has assured us about? Why aren't they flooding in? And where is that guy with the sandwich board who was haunting the site? Doesn't he want his money back too? Hey I just got a great idea….. Little Pansy Robertson the Idiot Mayor and Shit Vision Vancouver could hire a camera crew that can't focus a lens properly to follow hi around and pimp the OV.

    BTW, another hilarious annoncement from Shitty Vison today..they are going to pay $350,00 grand to a few Shitty Hall insiders to study the destruction of the Viaducts into the city center and reroute the traffic into more bicycle access routes. Bwahahahahahahaha . Enjoy your eggs Vancouver. The Buffon Hillbilly's have taken over YeeeeeHawwwwwwwww .

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    #152 @chopper: Last I checked the CMHC was leveraged 70:1, same as Lehman Brothers. I actually think the government's policy of bouncing the housing market might reduce their total losses. Any speculator with half a brain got out in 2009, and ordinary people (i.e. rubes) will take the hit.

    Ask yourself this: which set of loans will have a higher recovery value for the CMHC? A bankrupt speculator with 3-5 properties, or 3-5 first time buyers? If speculators go bust there is a massive housing market crash and the rubes get cheap houses. If the rubes go bust we're simply pulling forward wealth extraction on the middle class, but hey, that would have happened anyway. So maybe the economy goes into the ditch, but the people who matter got their money out and can start a new bubble.

    Too cynical?

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    Anonymous Says:
    168

    I hope this blog is archived for posterity. Someone should write a script and scrape it for:

    - patriotzed (insight)

    - paulb (stats)

    - supraboy aka browntown aka kitetowardsmoon aka vancouverboom2 aka supersmartbull (hilarity). That guy's shit is brilliant, somebody get him a lifetime achievement award for trolling so consistently for so many years.

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    Leading Story?!? Says:
    169

    In fact, large parts of the Netherlands and New Orleans are built on land that was simply “made”

    There's this city in Italy called Venice … it was built on a marsh!

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