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July 25th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
John Hussman does it again, with his piece “Betting on a Bubble, Bracing for a Fall”
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100726.htm
July 25th, 2010 at 5:29 pm
#142 chip Says:
It’s a shame the WHTO* index is now defunct. I always found that one a sure bet for confirming prices were about to explode.
*WHTO – We Have The Olympics
—————————————
Sure, the WHTO index still exists, but it’s a negative one:
WHTO — We HAD the Olympics.
Now we HAVE to pay for the party.
Provincial government has so far introduced the following tools to pay for it: HST, on-line gambling. There’s gotta be more coming….Yikes!
July 25th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
#146 Scullery maid, it seems you’ve taken you’re head out of the shithouse for a minute. Is this your coffee break? I told you…wear a mask when you clean the restaurants crapper, the fumes are turning you into an asshole.
July 25th, 2010 at 5:25 pm
#141 Chip, don’t forget the PC cunts and all the other truth deniers whose agendas require the world to stick its head up its ass so that they get their way. The PC assholes knee jerk reaction is to call everyone a right wing rascist when the truth becomes uncomfortable. They call this style of ad homonim attack ‘the fall back position’. From memory it was used successfully against the Canadian population by Ottawa Liberals when the population was in direct disagreement with the insane policies of the Trudeau Libs.
Trudeau and Lalonde overcame the objections by creating hundreds of small constituencies in southern Ontario and stuffing them with new immigrants beholden on them for welfare and promises. Trudeau came out west once and got ridden out on a rail because people here were much more aware of the political scam that hw eas trying to pull over on them. He did manage to create a Liberal seat in South Vancouver using the immigrant dumping strategy with the radical terrorist Sikhs as his willing allies. They tried again with Chinese but they turned on him when they realised what his tax policies would do to their fortunes. The PC cunts have never grown further than the bastions of the union halls since in the west, with the exception of the super flakes in teaching positions at the Universities. Politically the PC’s are well entrenched but are slowly being moved aside by a balanced national democracy.
The PC cunts of today grew up drinking this PC kool aid in the union run schools resulting in the brainwashing and indoctrination of a subset of assholes who support the labels and diatribe that has been stuffed down their gullible throats. To me, its as if I’m living millions of years ago, listening to the dinosaurs stumbling into the tar pits. In a generation we’ll see a Canada for Canadians. It will first take washing the PC cunts out of Ottawa and the senate to finally get rid of the crazy ideas of the seventies Liberal Party.
July 25th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
Wow Grampy you’re in rare form today. By that I mean you’re especially fucking crazy. For a guy who claims that other cultures have nothing to offer Canada you sure seem to hate your own country and particularly Vancouver.
Tell me something Grampy, if all those brown cultures are violent and homophobic, and you yourself are violent and homophobic (which clearly you are) then what makes you any better then them?
And more importantly if you hate Canada, BC and Van as violently as you obviously do then why on earth are you still living there?I mean plainly you hate:
Unions, government workers, immigrants (at least the ones not willing to work for pennies in place of unionized workers), city hall, and gays and lesbians. So…. who don’t you hate, exactly? Who exactly do you see as contributing to society except for you yourself?
It’s one thing to bitch incessantly Gramps, it’s another to find good in the world, a feat you’re plaingly not capable of accomplishing.
In the end I wasn’t happy in Vancouver, so I left and found a better life somewhere else. YOu can call me whatever names you like, you horrible black – hearted old bastard, but I made my choice and I’m happy.
Why don’t you do the same?
July 25th, 2010 at 4:59 pm
@logic:
“Enjoy the weather all”.
Indeed I will. Summer in Vancouver is always the 3 best weeks of the year.
July 25th, 2010 at 4:41 pm
chip said: Basically, the whole right wing – left wing definition breaks down under any scrutiny.
The Political Compass attempts -with some success I think- to fix things.
July 25th, 2010 at 4:17 pm
Holy is this fool in for a world of hurt.
http://www.realestatetalks.com.....fe0b5cea98
Thinks he can flip a 200 to 250K condo in this market in a years time.
I knew BC bud is good, but THIS good?
Constantly amazed at how many amateur flippers there are.
Take one guy I know. Buys a fixer upper house for 650.
Spends every weekend for 6 months fixing it up.
Figure he spent about 60 thou more in materials.
He sells this thing for 730 and he thinks he’s made money?
OMFG. Punch this thing into Excel you idiot.
Realtor takes 50. Interest is another 10.
He tied up his downpayment 6 months.
Ya buddy, congrats on losing 6 months of your life and over 40 thou.
We need more flippers like you operating in this market.
July 25th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
@Best place on meth:
It’s a shame the WHTO* index is now defunct. I always found that one a sure bet for confirming prices were about to explode.
*WHTO – We Have The Olympics
July 25th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
@frank:
“This site is becoming a magnet for a few right-wing racist crack-pots.”
Not to be pedantic but it’s a myth that one has to be right wing to racist. The BNP is picking up support in the UK from disaffected Labour supporters while the KKK and France’s Le Pen are backed mostly by economic nationalists.
In fact you will find most racist parties also favour more state control over the economy, price controls, restrictions on imports etc.
Basically, the whole right wing – left wing definition breaks down under any scrutiny. They should be junked as political adjectives.
July 25th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
Re: Saltspring etc.
I see this as another RE canary in the mine.
You hvae a combination of those who drove up the price, the family cabin has been inherited by squabling family members, as well as probate fees and capital gains, and everything in between. Then you have the Islands trust, etc.
These paradises lose their appeal after a while.
July 25th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
Open house day?
Screw that, I’m off to the beach. Enjoy the weather all (as it will be miserable again in a month or two).
July 25th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
Classic example of an excess of greed and a shortage of talent. Dubai was rich when credit flowed, the emirate now struggles under a crushing debt. residential prices are off 60% and falling continually, rents are failing, infrastructure can’t be maintained and power blackouts are common in the energy rich state. Cars are simply abandoned at the airport as foriegners flee before they can be imprisoned for debts asd many are underwater on their loans.
http://www.propertywire.com/ne.....74288.html
This is a fact worldwide, deflation has hit. In the weaker economies it is obvious, for the higher taxed regions we are on lifesupport, but we know whats coming. How long can people here continue to pay ever escalting taxation to governments that want to push the notion that ‘its differant here’. I see the government here in an all out fight to control the message, so far a majority of idiots are drinking the kool aid.
July 25th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
well, i went out to that 388,800 house in vancouver east. there is a sewer running under part of the house. new construction on it would be restricted, hence the lower price. the place was packed. i’d guess it will sell pretty quickly.
another place i was at i asked the realtor what % of his clients put 20% down or more. he said a lot of his clients where overseas so they put down 35% or more due to regulations. so i asked what about the locals, and he said locals usually put 10% down. asked why he said they would rather eat the penalty and invest the rest of the money since rates are so low. i also asked how’s business and he said its “busy”. am i inclined to believe him, well…
July 25th, 2010 at 1:12 pm
@McLovin:
Here’s 100 open houses to get you all started.
http://www.mls.ca/map.aspx?&am.....;curView:0;
Remember, be safe out there. And no double-deckers please.
July 25th, 2010 at 11:44 am
Today is open house day! If anyone happens to drop by one and engage the highly trained Realturd in conversation please share their experiences.
BTW does anyone know what the total inventory is?
July 25th, 2010 at 11:29 am
@Supraboy:
“The more the merrier, the deeper the better!” is exactly what your mum told me last night while I did her in that same garage of yours.
July 25th, 2010 at 11:20 am
@specuskeptic:
“Garth’s blog also attracts crackpottery for some reason.”
The reason may be Garth himself, who was sharing squirrel recipes with his readers just over a year ago.
Garth should list his #1 hobby as “stocking up for Armageddon”.
July 25th, 2010 at 11:12 am
@specuskeptic: When you have a relatively popular contrarian non-mainstream public outlet, it tends to attract an element that is even more extreme. Oh, the TEOTWAWKI doomers and crackpots have their sites, but there they’re just talking to themselves. This gives them a chance to spread their wisdom and message. This is the kind of person who is not willing to put in the time to create, build, market, grow and nurture their own brand, and would rather use somebody else’s.
It’s fine in a small quantity, to be honest, brings a diversity of opinion, especially when they are capable of reasoning, and have something on topic to contribute periodically that may make you look at things differently.
July 25th, 2010 at 11:03 am
Wealthy Asian Index (WAI)
No More Land Composite (NMLC)
It’s Different Here Average (IDHA)
Best Place Indicator (BPI)
Pure gold.
Re: Other-agenda focussed crackpots. A third button aside from up or down titled “off topic” or “irrelevant” or “troll” would address the issue A# brings up I think. It is a shame though. Garth’s blog also attracts crackpottery for some reason – some of the same ones as here. Sad, lonely, angry, disenfranchised people who have no audience elsewhere.
July 25th, 2010 at 10:27 am
@frank:
If we were to have a negative vote removal system, it will be important to not vote people down just because they have an opposing view.
Yes, I know this is obvious, but the fact is, there have been a few examples of bullish arguments on this blog that have been voted down without due cause IMO.
July 25th, 2010 at 10:08 am
@chip:
Great site, they even have their own proprietary index:
“One of the unique market statistics provided in the Altos Market Reports our proprietary “Market Action Index” (MAI).
I’ve also come up with my own market indicators tailored specifically to Lower Mainland real estate.
Wealthy Asian Index (WAI)
No More Land Composite (NMLC)
It’s Different Here Average (IDHA)
Best Place Indicator (BPI)
All four measurements are based purely on what real estate industry people disseminate to the public via TV, print and radio, not on any real facts or data.
I’m still tweaking the figures and will make them available in early fall.
July 25th, 2010 at 10:03 am
“However pretty soon it will drive people away like it did at the VREF.”
Do you mean RET? It had problems well beyond the occasional right wing crank. Intentionally poisoned, to my mind. BTW, for incomprehensible reasons someone voted you down. I pushed it the other way.
July 25th, 2010 at 9:44 am
This site is becoming a magnet for a few right-wing racist crack-pots. It is drowning out the excellent posts on real estate and is sad to see. Many of us come here for intelligent discourse.
Not sure what the answer is, maybe an automatic removal of a post which attracts 5 negatives or maybe removal for inciting hatred, that is the decision of blog owners.
However pretty soon it will drive people away like it did at the VREF.
July 25th, 2010 at 8:39 am
Another myth is about to get busted.
“The marijuana business holding up prices”
I have always thought some pot money went to real estate, but not enough to keep the bubble afloat.
Will Vancouver go bust now that Oakland is open for pot business?
July 25th, 2010 at 5:13 am
@anonymous:
They’re really not “trying” to sell, and they don’t need any “luck”. There is only one reason why these properties won’t sell – the owner is asking too much.
July 25th, 2010 at 5:13 am
Great data on US cities here. This is for Seattle:
http://www.altosresearch.com/r.....ate-market
My favourite:
“The average property in SEATTLE as of July 25 2010 has been on the market for about 140 days.”
140 days! That’s longer than Phoenix but Miami still comes in at a painful wait of 202 days.
July 24th, 2010 at 10:25 pm
Re: Salt Spring Island. It sure looks like the days of real estate speculation are over. Maps like this can be found all over the province, soon we will have to call in the Centre for Disease Control to take care of our measles outbreak across the province. At this point in time, I personally know several people who are trying to sell places, lower mainland, Kelowna and Calgary. None has had any luck, all listed since the spring. I think this is (finally) it, what we’ve all been waiting for. Bring it on!
July 24th, 2010 at 10:20 pm
@Best place on meth: Boomers who bought decades ago trying to ensure their retirement riches. We’ll see how well that works.
July 24th, 2010 at 9:59 pm
Holy crap, that Saltspring Island map is astonishing.
July 24th, 2010 at 9:27 pm
@fixie guy:
Ok, THAT was extremely funny.
July 24th, 2010 at 9:02 pm
Patchouli crop failure?
July 24th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
@Best place on meth: Meth, thanks for pointing that out. Holy crap. I had no idea.
July 24th, 2010 at 8:44 pm
What the Beasley CL ad fails to point out is that none of the units at the Beasley actually sold at the ‘original purchase price’.
The Beasley was the condo that MAC Marketing Solutions repacked in a ‘pass it on’ campaign in March 2009. During the 2009 downturn, Amacon supposedly spent months negotiating with their contractors, suppliers and trades.
Amacon announced that they had reviewed the construction costs they could save and decided to pass on the savings to the pre-sale buyers of The Beasley and any new buyers.
Reductions ranged from $100,000 – $250,000 off the original purchase price.
Buddy claims he is cutting $88,000 off the ‘original purchase price’.
Seems to me it is still being sold above the price that was ultimately offered to buyers in March of 2009 when the building ‘sold out’.
July 24th, 2010 at 8:19 pm
Vancouver (Pansy) Police attack girl with cerebral palsy. Way to go with the heroic act against a defenseless disabled girl. The cops have pulled out the ‘she tried to grab my gun’ defense ( as always) but they got caught lying again as the video evidence exposes the savage and brutal attack for what it was, a fucking bully whose ass was still hurting from his boyfriends nightstickfucking the night before and he took it out on a truly defenseless disabled girl.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX3nTOBt9mI
The asswipe , Jim Green, supposedly an advocate for the people of the DTES sucks major cock by later saying “Oh I hope it was all a misunderstanding. No Jim, you fucking pansy, it was an arrogant loser with a badge who thought he could get his jollies by molesting a helpless disabled girl.
#114 A , The link about the white woman refused work because she’s white has already been posted. It has also been on every news channel, radio and blog. Are you pinned under a rock and can’t get up?
#113 Vanrod, Dear Petunia, you’re obviously incapable of understanding the linkages of value in the social context. Crawl back into your PC dress and do the naked for the cruisers, the adults are talking.
July 24th, 2010 at 6:01 pm
I’m no expert on the Gulf Islands, but is everyone trying to get off Saltspring all at once?
http://www.mls.ca/map.aspx?&am.....;curView:0;
I didn’t think they even had this many people on the island.
July 24th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
Realpaul – do you have a link to a source or story about the single mom?
July 24th, 2010 at 4:29 pm
@realpaul: Is this a real estate blog or the grumblings of a nut case?
July 24th, 2010 at 4:17 pm
A, still don’t agree to see it as temorous , homourous or anything other than blatant PC CUNT reverse discrimination against a whie woman who has the qualifications for a government job, has two kids ( single mom) probaly went to expensive night or college classes and has a student loan for same, and is being told that she can not apply because she’s white. Thats the reason she was given for being rejected, this fact is not in question.
Now, I want all the PC CUNTS to line up and tell us why some shithead from anywhere else who has contributed nothing to this country, whose religion, culture and social values made their own homelands such shitholes that they had to flee to Canada ( and most likely they are on the losing side of retribution from the harrassment their own tribe perpetrated against another), whose countries, societies and religions shit on civil rights, womens rights, freedoms of any kind…and we’re supposed to ‘save a job’ for them over Canadian citizens who have done everything right by this country?
There is nothing in those cultures, societies or religions that has anything to offer this country. If there was any redeeming qualities to anything in Somalia, Pakistan etc etc etc , these people wouldn’t be here would they? So why do we want to hire an extraordinary number of these medieval savages into government jobs, what can they contribute. Do we want Islam and the head sacking of women….what about stoning? How about female mutilation. How about hanging children, beheading…is this the type of influence that Canada is trying to introduce into Canadian society? Lets shut down the sewers and be like the Islamic countries….great idea. And yet, the government says no to a white single mother whose crime it seems is to have been born white and pay taxes her whole life. Fuck you if you think this is OK.
July 24th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
@realpaul:
Lighten up rp, a video rebuttle by Louis CK (comedian)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TG4f9zR5yzY
July 24th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
@McLovin:
McLovin Says:
July 24th, 2010 at 11:42 am
Realpaul I do agree with much of what you say, however if you toned down the language and the venom your points would come across much more articulate and informed. When people hear words like “cunt” they just turn off and think the message has come from an uneducated crackpot. (which is not my opinion of you)
++++++++++++
Stop being such a fairy. There’s a kazillion moderated blogs online where you can stay in step with the masses and partake in group speak to your hearts content. RP’s rants are refreshing.
July 24th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
@Jimmin and McLovin:
I’m not so sure the selling is taking a loss. Remember that Amacon managed to pre-sell all the units at the height of the mini-meltdown of ’08/09 by slashing prices by 20%. They even retroactively applied the new prices to previous buyers:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....ml?ref=rss
I wouldn’t be surprised if the contract price isn’t actually 547K. That’s probably the “original price” before Amacon’s 20% discount. 20% off of 547K is 437K. I suspect that’s the current contract price, which means the 459K he’s presently asking for would net him a small profit.
But maybe I’m just overly suspicious. No respectable REALTOR(tm) would be that deceptive with their ad copy, would they?
July 24th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
And it’s Dziekanski
July 24th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
Can you seriously not see the distinction here?
July 24th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
US banks holding more foreclosed properties off the market than are currently for sale. They think that prices will plunge even further if they release the ghost inventory of houses priced over 300K into already falling markets where sales are off some 70%. Think US real estate is a good deal? Think again.
http://www.realestatechannel.c.....s-2868.php
July 24th, 2010 at 11:54 am
#103 I disagree, the complacent sheeple need a good smack in the mouth to wake them up. How can anyone not call the Canadian government a cunt? Its a case of ‘if the shoe fits wear it’ when it comes to the type of bullshit i report. I called the Djikanski murder a ‘murder’ a year before the court came out and agreed with me and was soundly told that my language was too strong, that the cops were innocent 100% of the time. Buddy…in my view, the reason there is so many ‘cunts’ in government , shitting on our civil rights, is because people in this country are so meak and feeble that the government has grown to think that Canadians enjoy being fucked.
July 24th, 2010 at 11:48 am
Yalie #93, thanks for the link re: the Beasley
Originally $547,000, asking price now $459,000
I wonder how many other lucky pre-sale purchasers/flippers are trying to get out. At least this guy knows when to hold and when to fold and when to run…..take his $88,000 loss now, rather than stay in and potentially increase his loss.
July 24th, 2010 at 11:42 am
Realpaul I do agree with much of what you say, however if you toned down the language and the venom your points would come across much more articulate and informed. When people hear words like “cunt” they just turn off and think the message has come from an uneducated crackpot. (which is not my opinion of you)
July 24th, 2010 at 11:37 am
Yalie good find!
I have condensed the sales ad below because it think it is very important to show all the people with their heads in the ground that Vancouver condo’s have already dropped 15-20% even if the official numbers don’t show it:
This is it! An affordable opportunity to own in beautiful downtown Vancouver in Yaletown at way less than original purchase price. Suite #1405 at the “Beasley” highly sought after “E” plan and originally sold for $547,900. We are offering it for sale at an incredible price of $459,000(assignment of contract).
Completion date is set is on target for a November 2011 completion. If you would like more information. please don’t hesitate to call or email Glen at the numbers below or visit my website at www,seemoreresults.ca. I was also one of the original sale people on this development. I look forward to hearing from you.
Wow, 20% off the original purchase price only bought a year ago. I love how this guys was one of the original sales people! What is he telling his buyers now? “Sorry but your 5% down is gone and you are 15% underwater and you won’t be able to move in for over a year!”
I wonder if this guy bought this himself to flip and now sees the writing on the wall and is trying to get out at any cost?
People please can’t you see? I know 99% of the people posting here are Bears but if some of you lurkers are FTB’s or unsure please don’t jump in things are going to get very ugly. Its not different here, its not different this time, this market is already dead the average person just doesn’t know it yet. If you are looking actively just take two months off to enjoy the summer and resume your search Oct 1st I am pretty sure you will be glad you did.
July 24th, 2010 at 11:28 am
Wonder why so many Koreans are wanting to ‘escape to Canada ( or anywhere else) legally or otherwise. How would you like to have NK crazies constantly threatening ‘sacred retaliation’ on your downtown?
http://www.nationalpost.com/ne.....story.html
Isn’t communist NK atheist? Whats this nonsense about war bein ‘sacred?’?
McLovin, if the truth is ugly , don’t blame me. The federal government ruling barring a white single mother from employment based solely on race is whats really ugly and nasty and vicious and shitty in so many ways. If you don’t like the truth pal…… crawl under your bed and don’t go outside…its ugly out there….especially if you’re white, have children to feed, were born in this country and thought you had some civil rights as a Canadian citizen.