Friday free-for-all!
It’s the end of another work week and that means it time for another free-for-all! This is when we do our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few links to kick things off:
-YOY sales numbers take a dive
-West Van Slide
-That Delta smell?
-Canada’s economy expands 0.1%
-Campfire ban with $1 million fine
-Foreclosures up in 75% of top US metros
-Paulson: housing policy must be sustainable
-Recovery losses speed
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a fantastic long weekend!
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August 2nd, 2010 at 9:24 pm
@Anonymouse: “I can’t tell you how many chinese families I’ve met that have wanted to move to the west side so their kids could go to the best private schools.”
You should tell them private schools don’t have catchments!
I remember having a great discussion over how one’s quality of education at grade school, not university, is the largest determinant of future success.
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:13 pm
Eh, I went to one of those lower ranked schools and here I am — a well paid professional living in the best place on earth sipping cranteenies on my patio like everyone else that went to York House. Ok, so I’m a jizzbag renter and my landlord has a beehive, so what?
I can’t tell you how many chinese families I’ve met that have wanted to move to the west side so their kids could go to the best private schools. They are willing to sacrifice a lot financially to make this happen. Personally I think this is a waste of money. This isn’t the U.K. — nobody here gives a damn what school anyone went to. At the end of the day how you prove yourself after school is over is what matters.
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:02 pm
@Zergling: “Can anyone explain what the legal implications are if you buy a house that has had renovations done without permits?”
I remember one place I saw that had the breaker box in the downstairs bathroom. If you do buy the place, ask for discounts because there were no permits. If the Realtor says that the “normal” practice is for Vancouver to have illegal renos so there is no discount, laugh, because it’s a lie.
In terms of legal implications, I think the City can inspect and tell you (the owner) to bring it up to code but I don’t know what latitude they have for fines for non-compliance. In Vancouver, they usually only inspect upon receiving a complaint.
August 2nd, 2010 at 6:41 pm
@crabman:
“Down in LA for a few weeks. I met a friends husband today who is a professional actor. When I brought up the possibility of him getting work in Vancouver he said the following:
“Not anymore. They still do some production work up there, but most of the acting work has gone to Detroit. With the high $CAD it’s not really worth it.”
Has another BC industry bitten the dust? Is there anything doing well right now that isn’t RE related?”
There are several major productions shooting in Vancouver this summer. Your friend’s husband shouldn’t blame Vancouver for the fact that he can’t get a gig.
August 2nd, 2010 at 6:13 pm
@ crabman
Conversely, I was talking to someone scouting locations in town for a major shoot just last Friday who said the opposite, things are busy here.
August 2nd, 2010 at 6:08 pm
@GB:
And if that price tag is a bit rich for you the house right next door, also lake front, recently sold for $675K.
http://www.zillow.com/homes/12.....en,-WA_rb/
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:56 pm
vhb says: DT-FN condo inventory is down 20% over the last month. (See here.) Is there an explanation for this that does not rely on bear wishful thinking?
you really expecting carnage downtown? this is a market thats more or less been stagnant for three years. the flippers have primarily exited the market over that time. demand has not exactly lit it up but either has supply. some post olympic shake out is in order. i’d look to the suburbs for more drama, leaky condo liquidations and rental restriction bylaws are a couple of factors helping a bearish demand/supply dynamic.
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:45 pm
OMG. This is what you get in Seattle for $1.8mill. Actually you could prob get it for $1.6.
http://www.historicseattlelakefront.com/
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:40 pm
@Anonymous:
Yet another quote straight out of Ben Jones’ Housing Bubble Blog circa 2005. It’s like some Star Trek or Twilight Zone episode where people are stuck in a time loop but don’t realize it.
I will extrapolate a bit and assume they plan to buy a new place and rent out the old one until the market “recovers”. For the outcome, check Housing Bubble Blog circa 2007.
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:31 pm
* 141
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:29 pm
Crabman says:
“Not anymore. They still do some production work up there, but most of the acting work has gone to Detroit. With the high $CAD it’s not really worth it.”
Detroit and other “depressed” US cities have provided tax incentives for production to be done in those cities.
The high CAD vs USD has made every exporting industry suffer, including film industry.
Forestry is another example….lumber at US$300 x 1.50 = CA$450; at current FX rates: US$300 x 1.03 = CA$309; a reduction of $110 revenue when costs in CAD.
Strong CAD is great from cross border shopping, but lousy for exporting industries.
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:11 pm
@crabman: Thanks for the made up anecdote, but you have no clue
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:55 pm
Down in LA for a few weeks. I met a friends husband today who is a professional actor. When I brought up the possibility of him getting work in Vancouver he said the following:
“Not anymore. They still do some production work up there, but most of the acting work has gone to Detroit. With the high $CAD it’s not really worth it.”
Has another BC industry bitten the dust? Is there anything doing well right now that isn’t RE related?
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:14 pm
@203
My wife is attending the free English courses available for new Canadian immigrants and PR’s at Mosaic center on commercial dr. In her class she talked to two of her classmates. One is a woman from china and her occupation is “real estate investor” and the other is an Indonesian woman who works at KFC. She separately asked both of them their opinion of Vancouver real estate, the Chinese woman said without a doubt it is going down now. The Indonesian woman said Vancouver real estate is going up right now. I would like to mention the Indonesian woman lives in a 7br house half of which is rented out.
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:11 pm
Bear teacher and rich asian buy condo like bear buy toilet paper. Hard to understand for poor little bear scratching at slit of light in moldy basement but it’s true. Reason why kid do so well with union teacher is because of smart real estate investment by teacher. Bear you should have paid more attention in school.
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:07 pm
Can anyone explain what the legal implications are if you buy a house that has had renovations done without permits? The place we looked at on the weekend had all new plumbing and electrical but the realtor said the homeowner did it all himself and didn’t get permits for the work. He then tried to justify it by saying the homeowner was an “engineer”, as if that somehow implies he knows how to re-plumb a house.
Besides the obvious safety concerns, what legal issues could a new homeowner encounter in this type of situation? I’m wondering if the house burned down because the previous owner didn’t wire something correctly, would the new owner’s insurance refuse to cover it?
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:04 pm
@Jimmy: I agree. I also think they’re asking too much. A $30,000 cut would probably get a few nibbles. We’ll see. I’ll keep everyone posted.
August 2nd, 2010 at 3:54 pm
oneangryslav2 Says
“It’s been on the market for seven weeks now and there has been no offer yet”
———————————
No disrespect intended, but perhaps it’s overpriced relative to other similar listings in the neighbourhood. If she wants to sell now, she may need to lower the asking price. Just my 2 cents.
August 2nd, 2010 at 3:27 pm
@Dan in Calgary: Don’t worry, Dan. It’s nearing the end of a long weekend without much real estate news. Once Pope creates a new blog post, the comments will reflect that change.
As for real estate news, my sister had an open house (in Coquitlam) yesterday and there weren’t many attendees. It’s been on the market for seven weeks now and there has been no offer yet.
August 2nd, 2010 at 3:08 pm
All that anti-BCTF rhetoric is so tiring. Quit blaming teachers for your child’s poor performance. Step up to the plate and be parents for crying out loud.
Looking at the Fraser Institute results is silly because they don’t adjust for income levels.
1) You are paying through the nose to live in an area that (I will assume) is pushing your affordability limits. You therefore have to trade off your children’s extra-curricular activities and vacation quality to do this.
2) You assume that surrounding yourself with affluent people will usher your child into university. Maybe, because you and your children will be at a financial disadvantage compared to your peers, you will be on the bottom of the curve in the Fraser Institute studies of your area.
The BCTF is in an awkward position: since socioeconomic factors strongly affect academic performance, it muddies the waters about actual teacher and school quality. Going down the road of accepting stratification does a severe disservice to some children from lower incomes who deserve on merit to succeed. Luckily even the “bad” schools and teachers are good enough to allow these kids to go to university. I’ll take that over some lazy rich kid any day.
But maybe you’re right. Maybe surrounding yourself with wealth will make you wealthy. Here’s some inspiration for you:
Herman Blume’s Speech
August 2nd, 2010 at 2:23 pm
Florida condos for less than a Prius.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries.....index.html
August 2nd, 2010 at 2:16 pm
DT-FN condo inventory is down 20% over the last month. (See here.) Is there an explanation for this that does not rely on bear wishful thinking?
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:59 pm
Also, the rational actor view also assumes we have complete and accurate information about the market, and a bunch of other idealized economic nonsense.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:57 pm
@Anonymous: Well, we already know economic actors aren’t rational, something compounded by usually conflicting long- and short-term considerations and government distortions of economic signals, but it’s good to have someone to quote in your bibliography when writing about it. It’s why central planning will fail every time.
It’s pretty arrogant to think everyone does what is in their best interest. Reality is we do, at best, what we PERCEIVE to be in our best interest. Just look at any bubble.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:56 pm
Sure hope this blog doesn’t go the way of albertabubble.blogspot.com.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Why are you letting that fucking troll moron highjack this site again?!!! He’s crying for attention as nobody out there in the “real” world will listen to him. He has a captive (and apparently attentive) audience here in this virtual world. Ironic isn’t it? Ignore it and him. Please.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:37 pm
I remember when this site used to be about real estate.
Nice job polluting the board realpaul/sensibleone.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:17 pm
Ok, I’m sorry, I spouted a bunch of insane accusatory rhetoric at The Fraser Insitute and the posters here on this site. I have a huge student loan and I only get part time substitute work. I’m relying on the union to bail me out. The financial pressure has made me crazy. My boyfriend left me, my dog ran away and my Mom won’t loan me any more money. I was a lazy ass throughout my academic career and settled for teaching as a fall back position when I failed at everything else. I chose to be ‘Anonymous’ because I feel like such a loser. So sorry guys , but I can’t handle the truth. Wahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:52 pm
@sensibleone:
Really, what was the name of the school? What year? You won’t reply, cause you’re full of crap and you know it. You’re only going to listen to what you want to hear so there’s no point in arguing since you prefer your opinion to facts.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:48 pm
@sensibleone: Of course, it doesn’t measure parents’ income, but that what is essentially being measured. In study after study, the strongest predictor of school performance is parents’ income. Class size, teacher quality, amount of homework, hours of instruction, etc., are all inferior–to parental income–as predictors of test scores and other measures of student learning and achievement.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:43 pm
@Devore: Actually, the mechanism at work, which is most closely linked to the work of Kahneman and Tversky) is one in which a loss of X dollars creates more disutility than the utility of a gain of X dollars. Thus, people weight losses more heavily than they weight gains.
This research laid the groundwork for work in behavioral economics, which eschewed the theretofore dominant paradigm of the rational actor. Tversky and Kahnemann showed that actors are from from rational.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:38 pm
The Fraser Institute takes the scores off the provincial exams…it doesn’t use parents income as a benchmark…thats just unionist rhetoric. Set your hair on fire in the union hall where someone will notice.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:38 pm
@sensibleone: Realpaul, answer this question, would you? Does the BCTF only have power in the bad schools? Are there no union teachers in the better schools? Is there a self-selection process occurring whereby those teachers who share the BCTF’s quest for mediocrity choose to teach in the worst schools, while the teachers who defy the BCTF and try to foster excellence select the best schools?
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:33 pm
#202 A, I said ‘graduate with university entrance marks’ not ‘auto shop and home economics’. The Surrey School Board has neglected to specify what the grads were actually achieving. Its true they have consistently tried to dumb down the statistics to suit the BCTFs campaign of obfuscation.
Sure….if you want hairdressers and pump jockeys they’re ‘graduating’ the numbers required under the contract ( the average) what a joke that is…don’t let the headlines fool you…the Fraser Institute has only published the facts..not commented on the agenda…its the BCTF that hates the truth getting out…why hate the messenger? Keep in mind that the schools now separate the kids at Grade Nine now, into academic and vocational tracks….that allows the BCTF to lower the bar and not have Math Science etc etc ‘get in the way’ of generating bogus graduation stats.
They also require the kids to fill out the transition docs in the classroom without a parents supervision ( so its too late to change course when the parents have found out that little Billy has decided to take the slackers program) and of course the peer pressure shunts a majority into the non university track , making it easier for the teachers to dumb down and slack off. You have to stay on top of whats happening eh…its a sleazy tactic that the teachers have tried to pull.
I went to a grad ceremony in White Rock a couple of years ago….3 Chinese kids got all the scholarships available. Nuture and nature?
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:24 pm
@sensibleone: Realpaul, why are you hiding behind a different screen name? As someone who grades a lot of papers, I have developed the ability to recognize different writing styles very easily. My second clue that it was you was the content. And the clincher was the link to the Fraser Institute report, the methodology of which has been debunked in these pages before.
For those who were not here, or do not remember the debate, the Fraser Institute scores for “quality of education” are measuring parental income. This–and not quality of education–is what the scores essentially mean.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:22 pm
Yesterday the significant other and I went for a stroll around Millenium Village (or whatever it’s being called these days) and went through a few of the open houses. Prices weren’t shown (even on the spec sheets) at the ones we went through so I asked an agent the price of the three-bedroom view suite we were viewing – surprisingly he said that the owner/developer was originally asking $1,250,000 but would probably take $1,000,000 to $1,025,000 – quite a significant drop in only a matter of months. He seemed quite desperate, I might add, although it must be depressing trying to sell units down there in ghost village.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:05 pm
@sensibleone: Correlation is not causation.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:01 pm
“My two cents is that some people are starting to hear that things are slowing down.”
…and here’s how you can help!
I mailed a copy of Inventory’s most recent sales stats for July to everyone on my list. It is on this site.
Spread the joy!
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:00 pm
@Anonymous:
Typical human psychology that results in buying high and selling low: buy when everyone else is buying, sell when everyone else is selling, guarantees a loss every time.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:46 am
I’m not sure word of the cooling market has reached some demographics yet. We went to an open house in Burnaby near Lougheed mall on the weekend and there were 4 Korean and Chinese families going through with realtors and talking about putting in offers on the spot. Apparently the house had been on the market for 5 days and already had two offers. Even the realtor seemed surprised. Keep in mind this was a bungalow asking $650K… so not exactly a steal. We’ll keep waiting.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:27 am
I wouldn’t defend the teacher’s union (there are some bad teachers that the union needs to stop protecting), but those surveys are garbage. The reason is exactly what you’ve stated:
I’m as concerned about the people in my neighborhood as the schools themselves. If parents let their kids get away with a C being acceptable, not doing their homework, or skipping school without dire consequences, then that can start to corrupt my kids. There’s nothing like a strong community to raise your kids in. Parents who are involved, kids with extra curricular activities, etc.
That’s why schools in Whalley never rank as high in those surveys as say White Rock (same city different peer group).
You’re lying/exaggerating about this though:
I’m a parent in the surrey school district and to suggest that 2% or 6 out of a typical grad class of 300 go on to university is ridiculous. The school that my children will eventually go to had almost $500,000 worth of scholarships for less than 300 students.
Surrey has come in above the provincial average for years now.
http://www.sd36.bc.ca/general/quickfacts.html
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:25 am
#199 V, so your saying that good parenting has a lot to do with a childs success at school…no argument there. ‘Self selection by parents’……..thats exactly what I’m saying….don’t locate in a shitty school district….it’s not difficult to see how shitty school districts produce a higher percentage of shitty students. No one forces you to live in Langley or some such toilet. Putting your child ahead of your ‘house selection’ should be primary and unfortuneatley isn’t. The way people usually work is find a house they can afford….anywhere….and then dump the kid into the local school….most often with predictable results. All school saren’t the same…that is obvious by the statistics that are thrown out.
Of course the BCTF wants you to look the other way on school performance…this is not because of the children…this is because the teachers don’t want to work any harder than they have to. In the mindset of the BCTF the students are in the way of their political agenda so they mmove the kids around like little garbage cans to fill up with propaganda and when the kids fail the union blames it on ‘underfunding’. Too bad the kids get the shaft in the BCTF’s political game.
Beat the BCTF at their own game where the parents are pushing for excellence and the students have their sights set higher than the BCTF propaganda can influence. School is about getting YOUR child an education…not a place to learn about the agenda of the BCTF. Look at the stats…avoid the schools where the ignorance is on full blast…..get your kid into a good school where they are statistically more likely to succeed. You might have to sacrifice personally and not get the square footage and the car of your dreams but you will have done the right thing by your child.
And no…you don’t have to send your kid to Europe to ensure they go to UNI. There are plenty of good programs that fill your childs mind with positive outcomes…it’s up to you to be child focused and not focused on the car, career and ‘valley view’. Leave your ego at the door when it comes to parenting.