Friday free-for-all!
It’s the end of another work week and that means it time for another free-for-all! This is when we do our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few links to kick things off:
-YOY sales numbers take a dive
-West Van Slide
-That Delta smell?
-Canada’s economy expands 0.1%
-Campfire ban with $1 million fine
-Foreclosures up in 75% of top US metros
-Paulson: housing policy must be sustainable
-Recovery losses speed
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a fantastic long weekend!
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July 30th, 2010 at 7:43 am
Hello, renters, look at your place, now back to my place, now back at your place, now back to my place. Sadly, your place isn’t my place, but if you stop paying rent and buy a house, your place could be like mine. Look down, back up, where are you? You’re on a building with a condo you could own. What’s in your hard, back at me, I have it, it’s an oyster with two presale contracts to that thing you love. Look again, the contracts are now diamonds. Anything s possible when you buy a place and not renting. I’m on a high horse.
July 30th, 2010 at 7:53 am
@raggedyrenter:
I don’t usually to respond to trolls but WTF is this realturd trying to say?
No wonder dumb buyers just sign the papers as no one understands the $hit coming out of this guy’s mouth. Did he get high riding a horse? Wierdo.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:03 am
@raggedyrenter:
I suppose a similar monologue could be crafted in which a renter invites an owner to compare lifestyle and monthly extra spending money.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:05 am
@specialfx3000:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owGykVbfgUE
this may help
July 30th, 2010 at 8:10 am
@”A-Sharp” Accountant
It’s funnier the other way around. Thx for the link. Not everyone realize the awesomeness of Isaiah.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:35 am
“I don’t usually to respond to trolls but WTF is this realturd trying to say?”
It’s playing on local low self-esteem to cajole potential suckers into committing to generation long debt servitude for wood frame trash, what else?
July 30th, 2010 at 8:44 am
Wonder why there are no text books in the schools or why the childrens hospital is desperate for life saving equipment? Wonder why there is an extreme shortage of hospice services for greaving parents or care homes for the elderly? BC residents die in the drafty hallways of unstaffed hospitals because the ones that are there already take over 90% of the Health Ministry budget into wages and poutrageous pensions. Where do the billions in tax dollars go?
Multiply the face of this laughing hyena by the thousands of similarily outlandish compensated parasites sucking of the majority of revenue into their gluttonous vortex. Talk about ‘a pig in the trough’.
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
July 30th, 2010 at 9:01 am
“Multiply the face of this laughing hyena…”
Hmm, I wonder if it is in league with the imperialist running dog or the paper tiger?
July 30th, 2010 at 9:01 am
Paulson:
Um, you left something out Hank. You know, that guy you used to work for? Do the words “ownership society” ring a bell?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNqQx7sjoS8
Note that the B-word is nowhere in this article.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:12 am
From the same site as “West Van slide”, East Van rise it appears: http://www.yattermatters.com/n.....more-19173
July 30th, 2010 at 9:13 am
@realpaul: I hope you don’t have a machine gun and see you go ballistic.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:14 am
@specialfx3000: Congratulations on your searingly deep analytic prowess.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:16 am
@raggedyrenter: What exactly do you gain by being an asshole? Again, it is people like you and realpaul that make me think the world is a wonderful place.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:32 am
I was wondering what the smell was yesterday.
I kept checking my shoes, as was everyone else.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:37 am
@realpaul:
ROFL
July 30th, 2010 at 9:38 am
I’ve been waiting for one of these Port Moody highrises (Sahalee) to reduce under $300K. Finally happened, #1709 651 Nootka reduced from $338K to $299K. #609 is still asking $329K… good luck! These 2 bed 2 bath 750sqft condos are literally shoeboxes with no closets. Anyway, thought I’d post that because in summer ’08 I viewed #809, listed for $349K, and jokingly told the Realtor I might consider $250. She called me back and said I could have it for $300K – I passed. She actually called me back earlier this year to tell me I “missed the boat” back then, but it was still a great time to buy despite prices being higher…
Also both my friends in Coquitlam have let their listings expire after 4 months and 0 offers. One of them has decided to try selling in the fall or next year when the market “picks up”, the others own a house and are refinancing to fix it up and then either try again or just not sell at all.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:43 am
@raggedyrenter
LOL. That was awesome.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:48 am
Have a good long weekend all!!! I am salivating at the idea of next week’s foul smelling RE sales numbers. Two months in a row should get things rolling pretty good. This also will be the one month anniversary of the HST woohoo!!!
July 30th, 2010 at 9:53 am
@raggedyrenter
LOL, too funny.
I read yesterday Old Spice sales are up over 100% since the commercials first aired. It’s funny what good marketing can do…
July 30th, 2010 at 9:57 am
From my vantage point the market looks pretty flat. Somewhat typical of summertime I suppose. I have heard of a number of people who were unable to sell their places for what they wanted so they’ve decided to take them off the market and try to rent them out, probably look at relisting later this year or Spring of 2011.
Also a condo building near my hood that has 3 units for sale currently, 2 of which have been up for months. This is newsworthy because of the fact that units typically sold within a month out of that building over the last 4 years. I haven’t seen a place last that long on the market before, let alone 3 of them. They could go anytime, but it’s still worth noting.
Once again the slow moving oceanliner of a market continues to chug along neither up nor down, but pretty stagnant all around.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:03 am
Wages are up big time…
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
July 30th, 2010 at 10:05 am
@fixie guy
what’s wrong with the joke?
I’m as bearish as they come and the vibe I’ve been getting from those who owned aren’t that much different from the Old Spice Guy commercials. What’s wrong with lampooning the whole situation?
July 30th, 2010 at 10:08 am
@Dave:
Looks like the BOC will have to keep raising then…
July 30th, 2010 at 10:15 am
@exx:
So why did they list the properties in the first place? What would they have done if they had sold? If the answer is “bought another property”, it’s no net difference to the market either way.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:16 am
Sorry raggedyrenter, that was a joke? Difficult to catch with something that incoherent and witless. Your manipulative, irrelevant and likewise incoherent complaint though sounds oddly familiar. From RET perhaps? There’s much Horton in your style.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:19 am
Listening to Big Slut on 98 this am while driving. A caller reminded us that the last study of municipal salaries was commissioned by the Van Sun in 2005. At that time the number of parasites making more than 100,000 p/a was 5500. That number has ballooned ( up 21% just this year). He was a reporter who said it was easier to call the governor of California than to get information on government salaries these days. Apparently the very touchy subject is causing a protocol of extreme secrecy to be enacted in all government departments. The egregious nature of the spiralling costs is something the government wants to keep from the public.
Multiply the municipal parasites times all ‘civic workers’ in the trough for outrageous salaries and benefits and even an idiot will quickly surmise that it is the outrageous nature of compensation that is keeping the citizens from receiving the benefit of their taxation.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:20 am
Yes indeed, the hand is quicker than the eye.
The issue then becomes that of semantics, the great minds are directed to focus as to whether 39.99% drop would be a crash of a mere correction.
What is forgotten is that housing (a basic human need) is turned into a casino bet.
Bubbles are destructive particularly to families.
Please don’t give the merchants of RE porn an audience.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:35 am
@raggedyrenter: Nicely done, too funny. Fixie guy, you obviously missed the joke, and/or haven’t seen the Old Spice commercial. “I’m on a high horse”, hahaha.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:36 am
@exx:
As I’ve written before, my sister listed her home in Coquitlam about 6 weeks ago. She’s had about ten or so showings and three Sunday open houses, but no offer yet. She has noticed listings in the same neighbourhood expiring and not being re-listed (maybe she’s in the same neighbourhood as your friends), which is good for her as there is less competition.
Oh, and the realtor suggests that the lack of an offer thus far due to a combination of the price being too high (which it probably is, by about 25,000) and the great weather. “Nobody wants to buy a house when the weather is good!” Except aren’t the highest sales’ volumes seen during the summer?
July 30th, 2010 at 10:37 am
@patriotz:
It also means for people in this situation, delistings mean lower future sales.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:38 am
@Anonymous:
Having a place to live is a basic human need, but owning RE is no need at all.
Forgetting the difference is what got us into this mess.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:38 am
@Cherry Pick Like U: those East Side numbers are weird – sales are down 40% MOM, the MOI is over 10, yet prices rise? Must be a sales mix thing, I’ll be interested to see the benchmark.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:40 am
@oneangryslav2:
They certainly were last year!
Sales are extremely slow right now based on recent history. Blaming the weather is a cop out for the Realtor and seller’s inability to understand the market.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:41 am
@Anonymous:
Why? They target inflation and it remains low. Wages are outgrowing inflation, which is a good thing.
What the data shows is a split in the employment market. Those with jobs and skills (i.e. most people) continue to experience a strong job market. People with skills who are not in demand are having trouble getting back into the workforce.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:43 am
@patriotz:
Huh? What do you mean by no difference?
July 30th, 2010 at 10:49 am
@Dave: “People with skills who are not in demand are having trouble getting back into the workforce.”
Definitely. A 3%+ growth in wages with unemployment high is a concern. The longer people remain unemployed the more and more difficult it is for them to find decent paying work.
Let’s hope the wage growth is sustainable as the governments cut back on spending. If it is, we’ll be seeing unemployment creep lower and higher interest rates through 2011. Certainly a good and necessary sign for the economy’s health in general.
July 30th, 2010 at 11:02 am
Got me there. Don’t watch TV and haven’t seen the Old Spice ad. Have seen envy marketing used ad nauseum for years though.
July 30th, 2010 at 11:03 am
@oneangryslav2:
Seems like there are lots of lurkers in Coquitlam – their place is near Mundy Park. They had tons of showings, literally lineups at open houses, but they were asking way too much and were unwilling to reduce the price and sell for “less than it’s worth”.
@patriotz:
Yes they were both going to buy another place, bigger and better of course. Not sure what you mean by no net difference though? What if they sold to an FTB? The condo was within FTB prices, the house not so much at nearly 3/4 of a million.
July 30th, 2010 at 11:24 am
@“A-Sharp” Accountant:
Thanks A-Sharp for the link.
@raggedyrenter:
I get it now Ragedyrenter. Guess I don’t watch enough TV and totally missed that joke. After watching the clip, that’s pretty funny.
July 30th, 2010 at 11:35 am
So many reasons why U.S. real estate prices will continue to fall and here’s another.
Rate of home ownership falling and expected to continue that trend for years to come.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-.....estate-buy
Falling demand, lower prices.
July 30th, 2010 at 11:56 am
@jesse:
My realtor gave the same lame excuse in the spring of 2008. “Weather is too good, nobody wants to come to open houses or make offers!”
When people want to buy, they buy, Rain or shine.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
@Dave:
“wages up bigtime”
Another reason to raise interest rates further. Higher rates = lower real estate prices.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:06 pm
The Olympic Village is officially empty:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1655195/
Rennie, please slash the prices on these units while there’s still time so I don’t have to pay for this for the next several decades – like Montreal taxpayers did.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:12 pm
Loved the Paulson article about scaling back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As he stresses, those agencies are the root causes of the problems in the housing market.
When are we going to see a high profile banker/politician in Canada writing a similar piece about CMHC on the Globe and Mail?
Without the CMHC the real estate market would not have gone through its mad parabolic appreciation we have seen over the past 2 decades. Food for thought.
Abolish the CMHC, let your MPs know.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Below is an excerpt from Paulson’s article on the Wall Street Journal. I am still clapping my hands!
A significant root cause of the crisis was the combined weight of government policies promoting homeownership; these are apparent in the housing GSEs, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), the Federal Home Loan Banks, the federal tax deduction for mortgage interest and various state programs. Homeownership was overstimulated to the point that it was unsustainable and dangerous to the broader economy.
The GSEs, now placed in conservatorship, and the FHA still provide a massive subsidy to our housing market, touching more than nine out of 10 new mortgages. When the housing market is clearly recovering — and it is still far from robust — we must have the fortitude to create a more level playing field between housing and other productive investments.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should not be allowed to revert to their old form, crowding out private competition and putting taxpayers on the hook for failure while shareholders benefit from success. Reform should address the systemic risk they pose and should wean our mortgage finance system from its dependence on these institutions.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
this ones for realpaul
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1656662/
July 30th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
By the way, will we get end of month numbers for July by tonight? Or we shall wait until tomorrow (Saturday)?
Developers must be close to starting their major discount offensive: they are not moving any stocks!
I am excited, the show is about to begin.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:36 pm
Another CREA forecast.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....ecast.html
Paul the Octopus can make predictions better than these clowns.
They practically poop out a revision on a monthly basis.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:41 pm
Good rentals to be had throughout the states.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....65437.html
More heft for the P/R ratio argument perhaps?
July 30th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
@ Yalie
I cycle through there regularly. Concrete ghost town.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
@ specuskeptic
Love this quote from the G&M article: “The jump in national sales activity earlier this year likely borrowed from the future,” CREA president George Pahud said.”
Uttered for an article essentially about CREA’s inability to predict future demand. Priceless.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
@domus:
Not really. One, F/F have been around for generations. Financial deregulation hasn’t. Two, F/F only purchased or guaranteed the best quality mortgages – that’s why they were called “prime”. Subprime and Alt-A mortgages were securitized by the mortgage lenders. Still, prices became so inflated that the “prime” mortgages held by F/F were enough to bring them down.
The prospectus for every security issued by F/F explicitly said “not guaranteed by the US government”. So who moved in and guaranteed F/F debt in 2008 instead of letting the bondholders take their lumps, as should have happened?
Hank Paulson.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
@exx:
Scenario 1: They don’t sell and don’t buy. FTB buys another property.
Scenario 2: They sell to FTB. They buy another property.
Scenario 3: They sell to someone who has sold their own property. Rinse and repeat.
Simple.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:59 pm
@patriotz:
Based on your logic, stock prices would never change.
July 30th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
July 2007-2010 Sales:
Area,2007,2008,2009,2010
VVWFN,43,18,43,26
VVWDT,163,77,203,68
Total,206,95,246,94
I don’t know if I did the search correctly, but if the error should be consistent from year-to-year.
July 30th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
@Dave: Seriously Dave? Stock prices are based on what people are willing to pay. Psychology, Market Sentiment. I suppose you believe in “sideline cash” as well.
July 30th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
@CashedOut:
It’s not worth arguing with Dave. He’ll fight a losing battle until he’s completely discredited and then he’ll fight the exact same battle a week or two later. It doesn’t matter what proof you show him he will never budge. When prices are half what they are now he’ll find some bizarre reason to claim he’s still right.
Even though his predictions are 0 for 5 he’s still convinced his model of economics (which is called Voodoo economics by serious economists) is right.
July 30th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
#46 A, hey I just report the news, unlike the local rags. What I got out of that article was
a) I was right and ahead of the news cycle
b) Vancouver has its head up its ass and is neither officially reporting, observing or reacting to the problem which is making it much worse. The fact is that Vancouver is number one with bedbugs, the reason the survey rated number eight was exactly because the government will not agree to tackle the problem and will not report the real number of cases.
It took an American network (NBC I think) to crack the glass and report that Olympic vistors from the US had reported huge infestation problems in all Vancouver hotels. Since then the Vanc bedbug storey is ubiquitous everywhere except in the local media. So….Vancouver is number one in underreprting and having its head up its ass.
For all the jackasses who hate me for being ahead on these stories and making them public before the MSM I say…..don’t hate bitch, I’m just the messenger. If it was up to me I’d have the city fess up to the infestations of rats roaches and bedbugs etc and set up a public awareness campaign to clean up. The shitty hall seems to think that this would be bad for tourism or some such shit, when in fact it would be just the opposite. The rat roach and bedbug problem here deters more people from visiting that it attracts. These dipshits in the Vision Council have obviously never taken a Six Sigma track to develop excellence long term.
If we could guarantee visitors that there wasn’t massive amounts of fecal matter in the water and on the sand, no bedbug, raoch and rat infestations ( c’mon guys these issues are a big internationally as Stanley Park) then people would flock here for the pristine enviornment at any cost. What we have though is a dipshit leadership that will not not recognize the facts for what they are and as a consequence we see reduced numbers of tourists and a black eye thats turning into a cancerous lesion ( just like the majority of the sea life in English Bay) that will be to everyones detriment long term.
And BTW, there is still a lot of talk about Vanshithole being a ‘destination’ for Asian wealth…..we get the smegma off the Chinese cock when it comes to foriegn investment…the real destination for Chinese money has been Switzerland.
July 30th, 2010 at 2:40 pm
B.C.’s real estate slowdown more pronounced than expected
‘We’ve seen consumer demand has tailed off in the summer months,’ says BCREA’s Cameron Muir
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....z0vCisfx3K
July 30th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
@CashedOut: Until Dave pulls his head out his ass he’s not going to understand a word you say, kind of like reasoning with a mentally disabled monkey or a realtor.
July 30th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
@realpaul:
actually, i posted the G&M article in support of your posts from yesterday (and becasue the article came out just a day later). in my view, 8th worst in north america clearly shows there is a huge problem in vancouver with bedbugs contrary to some of the posters who said otherwise.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
@Jonathon:
So Cameron Muir predicts prices at year end to be exactly $492,880 and prices at the end of 2011 to be exactly $489,454.
A decrease of 0.69%
Douche.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
New Listings 109
Price Changes 77
Sold Listings 50
Think that’s about all.
17,753
July 30th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
Are any of my bullish friends interested for a “total inventory UNDER 17K party”? i’ll bring the hookers and blow!
July 30th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
Conman Muir is very impressive.
He can spout that shit to a Canwest reporter with a straight face.
He knows if he even smirks once they will both burst out laughing.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
More
New Listings 122
Price Changes 84
Sold Listings 61
July 30th, 2010 at 4:37 pm
@Vanrod:
Not as much fun when there’s a raging MOI party next door.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
@Vanrod: Greater than 8 MOI. You bulls can have your party; it might be your last for awhile.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
#61 A …got it, thx. Glad you recognize the issue.
July 30th, 2010 at 5:14 pm
@patriotz:
“Two, F/F only purchased or guaranteed the best quality mortgages – that’s why they were called “prime”.
Don’t know where you got this idea. Here’s MarketWatch in 2006:
“Fannie and Freddie bought 25.2% of the record $272.81 billion in subprime MBS sold in the first half of 2006, according to Inside Mortgage Finance Publications, a Bethesda, Md.-based publisher that covers the home loan industry. In 2005, Fannie and Freddie purchased 35.3% of all subprime MBS, the publication estimated. The year before, the two purchased almost 44% of all subprime MBS sold.”
Eventually, F/F held or backed 59% of subprime and Alt-A mortgage debt in the United States.
“The prospectus for every security issued by F/F explicitly said “not guaranteed by the US government”. So who moved in and guaranteed F/F debt in 2008 instead of letting the bondholders take their lumps, as should have happened?”
The government did because while the guarantee wasn’t explicit, F/F were created, monitored and staffed by current and former members of Congress and the White House. That’s why they’re called Government-Sponsored Enterprises and everyone knew they would be bailed out.
Possibly to the tune of $1 trillion.
July 30th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
New Listings 133
Price Changes 91
Sold Listings 75
July 30th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Tinfoil hat time! This one’s for realpaul.
Vancouver developer cartel exposed.
PS realpaul, I give you a hard time but it’s all in good fun. Feel free to go nutz on this one. (HT tabin on RET)
July 30th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
@raggedyrenter:
raggedyrenter Says:
July 30th, 2010 at 7:43 am
Hello, renters, look at your place, now back to my place, now back at your place, now back to my place. Sadly, your place isn’t my place, but if you stop paying rent and buy a house, your place could be like mine. Look down, back up, where are you? You’re on a building with a condo you could own. What’s in your hard, back at me, I have it, it’s an oyster with two presale contracts to that thing you love. Look again, the contracts are now diamonds. Anything s possible when you buy a place and not renting. I’m on a high horse.
+++++++++++++
This may help;
http://www.vancouveraa.ca/inde.....;Itemid=37
July 30th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
It’s different in Vancouver: You can barely buy a POS in Vancouver……
Million Dollar Homes Across America 2010
How much can $1 million buy you in today’s real estate market? The answer, of course, varies depending on where you’re looking to buy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-.....estate-buy
July 30th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
This just in:
Early this evening, after several seconds of deep thought and stroking his mangina, Cameron Muir has issued a prediction that average prices across B.C. will be $489,718.94 next Thursday.
The Sun has a reporter standing by to bring you more shortly.
July 30th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
@Best place on meth:
The level of B.S in the real estate industry is mind blowing.
Bill Good 30 seconds ago: “sales are expected to fall this year, but uh, rebound next year, yeah. Oh and prices are expected to be down a little” but we won’t tell you how much. What a relief!! Let’s grab that crack shack for a cool 2 mill.
We need “ass&ole of the year” awards or something. Black suit and tie, swag and all.
July 30th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
@paulb.: ahhhhhh yes, back to normal!
July 30th, 2010 at 6:46 pm
Best place on meth, have you ever tried doing stand up comedy?
No Joke, please submit a tape to “The Last Comic Standing.” Your entire routine could be about Real Estate…the comedy is never ending.
A Cameron Muir ventriloquist act would be gold…complete with a crantini in one hand and a magic 8 ball in the other.
July 30th, 2010 at 7:22 pm
Bear who care about real estate right now? Listen to some Alice in Chain and have beer on deck bear. Try “nutshell” unplugged and be sad little bear.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
Last week it was “must be ok with bees”.
This week….
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....17473.html
July 30th, 2010 at 8:14 pm
@Best place on meth:
You have to be shi)ting me. LOL! Tabby or else!
July 30th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
@paulb.:
No problem.
I’ll just pick one up on my way to the open house.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:22 pm
@metalhead: That’s a good one. Thanks for the laugh.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:24 pm
@Best place on meth: Meth, you find the best ads!
July 30th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
@bearshit:
AIC cannot be beat. Friend or foe.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:29 pm
Here is the final tally from paulb’s numbers for July.
item sales listings sell/list
days elapsed 21 21
average 109 194
days left 0 0
projection 2292 4068 56.3%
Here is the history:
July
1995 = 1978 = 42%
1996 = 2100 = 39%
1997 = 2303 = 46%
1998 = 1816 = 44%
1999 = 2181 = 58%
2000 = 1710 = 48%
2001 = 2737 = 73%
2002 = 2759 = 67%
2003 = 4140 = 88%
2004 = 3114 = 62%
2005 = 3825 = 88%
2006 = 2802 = 61%
2007 = 3955 = 76%
2008 = 2215 = 34%
2009 = 4197 = 80%
Note that Paulb’s numbers (and inventory’s) are for all sales, including raw land and multi. The end of the month REBGV numbers are just att/det/apt. So, there is a small difference there.
Also, paulb’s numbers are not official; some occasionally slip in after he posts.
Anyway. Looks like 2010 was just barely better than 2008 for July.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
Last night came home by cab from YVR. Had to endure cabbie (of some sort of mid-east persiuasion) telling me all about how “real estate only goes up”. Only in Vancouver this conversation would occur in a cab! LOL. I was too tired to reply with much more than “no it doesn’t”. Of course he thought I was an idiot. And of course he is a cabbie and I work in finance. What is the saying?…when cabbies start talking the asset….then get the hell out of that asset! Reminded me of the tech bubble days when shoe salesmen were telling me how they were making it big…
July 30th, 2010 at 8:38 pm
Here is August numbers that ‘inventory’ previously posted. sales and sell/list:
1994 = 2159 = 44%
1995 = 2326 = 47%
1996 = 2141 = 48%
1997 = 2096 = 55%
1998 = 1589 = 49%
1999 = 2002 = 59%
2000 = 1805 = 51%
2001 = 2659 = 77%
2002 = 2558 = 73%
2003 = 3413 = 88%
2004 = 2570 = 61%
2005 = 3800 = 82%
2006 = 3092 = 65%
2007 = 3493 = 75%
2008 = 1611 = 35%
2009 = 3496 = 74%
note that 2008′s drop from July to August was HUGE. Sales would have to drop by 30% m-o-m for 2010 to keep track with 2008.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
I stick by my prediction of double digit MoI by September 30th. Sales of around 1850; inventory of around 18,500. Lots of stuff taken off the market this summer will be relisted in the Fall.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
Paulb / VHB / Inventory,
Thanks for keeping us up to date with the numbers – much appreciated. I think there’s a good chance of another 5% down by Sep 30 then another 5% by the end of the year for 15% total off the peak.
If the stock market gets a bit wobbly again it could go down faster as buyers lose confidence.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:18 pm
Real estate agents are getting anxious. No inspections?!?!
http://www.ianwatt.ca/Blog.php/2797
July 30th, 2010 at 9:23 pm
Patriotz: tru that Paulson guaranteed the FF, as you call them. I think at that point pretty much any treasury secretary would have done the same. It was a disaster waiting to happen, I think it would be the same in Canada (even though you believe the Cons would not do it). I think that under the short term pressure of a major crash, politicians always go for the easy short term fix.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:25 pm
@Anonymous:
Who gives a shit what impresses his clients? I’m supposed to pass on the inspection just to impress his fucking clients?
Ian Watt – you pathetic, worthless asshole. You look like you’re getting less sleep and more cocaine.
Try shaving, that might impress your clients.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:26 pm
This Ian Watt seems quite a character. I would be unwilling to share a swimming pool with him, let alone a full and lengthy negotiation.
A bit aggressive, uh? Chill out mate.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:38 pm
@ Best place on meth:
Yup. This makes me think sales activity must have been pretty slow. It’s pretty aggressive to suggest that a good offere would have no subjects in it. What kind of a buyer does that!?!?
On a side note, I lived in the US for 10 years before moving back to Vancouver (I went there for grad school then stayed for a bit more) and saw the whole crumbling of the US economy and real estate market unfold right before my eyes. I’m seeing exactly the same thing happening here. It’s like deja-vu (all over again? lol).
July 30th, 2010 at 9:42 pm
Well Mr. Watt, cash offer actually DOES mean not subject to finance. Just a little detail there. No biggy. &-|
July 30th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
For all the slagging that goes on on this blog about Vancouver being shitty this and shitty that I want to post something positive.
I just took a swing by Davie St and it was going off! Its a huge street party for Pride weekend and there are people from all over North America here. It seems like a super fun party with bands and a DJ. An event like this going on and being welcome by the people is still quite rare in this world.
I know this has nothing to do with Vancouver real estate but things like this make me proud to live in this city!
July 30th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
@CashedOut:
Existing owners are somewhere around 70 to 80% of market activity. You would have to be pretty naive to think that has no effect on supply or demand. It was a stupid statement and I called him on it.
Likewise, adding to the supply and not selling will still have a market effect. Let’s face it, most of you have been obsessed with this very metric for the last six months for obvious reasons.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:29 pm
@Drachen:
The irony is that you haven’t been right about a single thing yet keep repeating some fake imaginary score about my predictions.
The reality is that I called the first top, the bottom, the recovery and I predicted prices would have reached a new peak this past spring. I have been dead on with rental rates and wage growth. All of this is well documented in the past two years of my postings.
You might not like what I have to say, but you cannot deny that I have called the big picture stuff correctly.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
THINK ABOUT YOUR BREATHING BEAR
Yes that’s right, THINK ABOUT YOUR BREATHING. Why you might ask? Well it’s simple!
Your brain usually takes care of breathing FOR you, but whenever you remember this, YOU MUST MANUALLY BREATH! If you don’t you will DIE.
There are also MANY variations of this. For example, think about:
* BLINKING!
* SWALLOWING SALIVA!
* HOW YOUR FEET FEEL IN YOUR SOCKS!
* YOUR PARENTS HAVING SEX THE NEXT TIME YOU MASTURBATE
In conclusion, the THINK ABOUT YOUR BREATHING troll is simply unbeatable. These 4 words can be thrown randomly into article text, into sigs, into anything, and once seen, WILL FORCE THE VICTIM TO TAKE CARE OF HIS BREATHING MANUALLY! This goes far beyond the simple annoying or insulting trolls of yesteryear.
In fact, by EVEN RESPONDING to this or voting it down, you are proving that IT HAS CLAIMED ANOTHER VICTIM — YOU!
July 30th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
@Dave: “you cannot deny that I have called the big picture stuff correctly.”
I deny it. QED
July 30th, 2010 at 11:15 pm
@paulb.:
Tabbies are the best mousers.
July 30th, 2010 at 11:26 pm
@McLovin:
McLovin Says:
July 30th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
For all the slagging that goes on on this blog about Vancouver being shitty this and shitty that I want to post something positive.
I just took a swing by Davie St and it was going off! Its a huge street party for Pride weekend and there are people from all over North America here. It seems like a super fun party with bands and a DJ. An event like this going on and being welcome by the people is still quite rare in this world.
I know this has nothing to do with Vancouver real estate but things like this make me proud to live in this city!
+++++++++++++
I’ll be riding my bike from the North Shore downtown both Saturday and Sunday. The festivities downtown will be entertaining and interesting, no doubt. I look forward to the weekend.
This still doesn’t negate the fact that Vancouver is an overpriced, deluded real estate market, festering in a denizen of drugs, crime, corruption and illegal activity.
Your pep talk is almost George Bush-ish in its suggestive, “you are either with us or you are not.” Too bad critical thinkers can sometimes be critical.
July 31st, 2010 at 12:12 am
oh yeah nutsters! welcome to raincouver! remembers, you might find IAN Watt at the pride parade, but you will not find
“a land making machine”
remembers “a nutslap’s a nutslap”
July 31st, 2010 at 1:31 am
@100
Congratulations. You actually *have* got me thinking: “Is this the stupidest funny thing I’ve ever read, or the funniest stupid thing I’ve ever read?”
July 31st, 2010 at 2:00 am
Final numbers unit sales are -45% down ** 2nd lowest in a decade
July = UNITS
1995 = 1978
1996 = 2100
1997 = 2303
1998 = 1816
1999 = 2181
2000 = 1710
2001 = 2737
2002 = 2759
2003 = 4140
2004 = 3114
2005 = 3825
2006 = 2802
2007 = 3955
2008 = 2215
2009 = 4197
2010 = 2297
July 31st, 2010 at 2:03 am
New home sales are down -70% ***lowest sales since 1995
July
“NEW” unit sales
YEAR= UNITS
1995 = 296
1996 = 442
1997 = 350
1998 = 311
1999 = 298
2000 = 205
2001 = 288
2002 = 221
2003 = 488
2004 = 343
2005 = 724
2006 = 445
2007 = 503
2008 = 215
2009 = 441
2010 = 129 down -70%
July 31st, 2010 at 3:52 am
@domus:
What would be the same in Canada? We have no equivalent to F/F. In Canada you either have a Crown agency (e.g. CMHC) or a private business.
I stand corrected on F/F buying subprime mortgages. But IMHO that’s even more reason for the Federal government not to have bailed out the bondholders. The bondholders were active enablers of F/F.
As was the Bush administration. Including Hank Paulson. It’s ludicrous for Paulson today to criticize the agencies and policies that lead to the housing bust when he was one of the highest places actors in that fiasco.
Let’s not beat around the, er, bush. Bush and Paulson actively promoted the US housing bubble, and then stepped in and guaranteed F/F debt because their rich friends would have lost a lot of money if they hadn’t. “Not guaranteed by the US government” means exactly that. It was an outright gift of taxpayer’s money to bondholders who had no claim to it.
F/F should have gone bankrupt. Period.
July 31st, 2010 at 4:22 am
@Jonathon:
Purchase of RE is investment, not consumption, so demand to purchase RE is investment demand. As is demand to purchase stocks. A fall in consumer demand means people are drinking less beer or going to fewer movies, etc.
But being able to articulate the difference is clearly not one of Cam’s job qualifications.
July 31st, 2010 at 8:14 am
@Anonymous:
post 91
What idiot would use that guy as an agent? What a tool. Seems well coked up too.
July 31st, 2010 at 8:15 am
I wonder if the massive reduction in new inventory will slow the market drop? In 2008 a lot of developers got caught with their pants down and had to slash prices. Is this the case this time or have they learned their lesson?
July 31st, 2010 at 9:04 am
Dear god, West Side is getting just POUNDED for the second straight month.
Median down 8.6% and almost 13% in the last 2 months.
Average down 12.7% in just the last 30 days.
Sales down 60% from June.
Price reductions 4 times greater than sales.
http://www.yattermatters.com/n.....more-19187
Anyone who bought 2 months ago has already lost WELL OVER 200K.:)
July 31st, 2010 at 9:21 am
@Best place on meth:
Don’t worry about those people, remember they are all rich Asians. They probably spend that much taking their private jets to Vancouver each time they come to buy more real estate. Besides, what fun is it owning real estate in a world class city without world class price reductions.
July 31st, 2010 at 9:27 am
“F/F should have gone bankrupt. Period.”
That’s where ‘too large to fail’ comes in. It was recognized the financial actors which sold them poisoned assets falsely as AAA paper had flooded the credit market with something that couldn’t be priced. The feds had to buy it back in order to replace the ‘junk’ with something of known value to get the loans needed for business flowing again. BTW, it’s Clinton/Bush. This couldn’t have happened without the idiocy of both.
That’s why I’ve always said what happens here will be very interesting. The fed/CMHC essentially bailed the banks out in advance and was directly complicit in generating junk paper with a taxpayer guarantee. It’s ‘value’ when mortgages inevitably go severely underwater lies in the federal enforcement – i.e. either the Government of Canada becomes the strong arm collection agency of the banks or it let’s banks and buyers off the hook, buying gambler’s houses on the backs of savers and earners. Harper fucked us for a generation.
July 31st, 2010 at 10:02 am
@McLovin:
I believe, the inventory reduction will slow market drop.
As for developers slashing prices, my guess is that they will include “free” upgrades to compensate for the additional cost of HST, so the market value will not drop by much initially.
Also, the interest rates are still at historical lows unlike 2008 when bank prime was still above 4% and 5 year fixed were around 5%.
http://www.canequity.com/mortgage_rate_history.stm
With the BOC in no hurry to raise rates to historical levels anytime soon, there will be no crash but rather a slow multi year decline similar to Japan.
Debt being so cheap and Vancouver being a desirable city, if the market drops 10%, people will jump in, stabilize prices for awhile until the demand wanes, then the cycle will repeat itself until all of the buyers are exhausted or an external event causes additional downward pressure (higher interest rates, double dip recession etc…)
There’s still too many people that believe that Vancouver RE always goes up. Until sentiment changes prices will remain elevated.
July 31st, 2010 at 10:20 am
So let me get this straight; I pay you $920/month and you get to tell me what time I go to bed.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....63855.html
July 31st, 2010 at 10:23 am
@anonymous:
Just like back in 2008, when a huge wave of buyers rushed in once prices had dropped 10%. “Excuse me for a second [holding my hand to my ear, as if listening through my ear piece to somebody giving me instructions, a la John Stewart on the Daily Show]…oh, they didn’t?!? You mean buyers didn’t rush in when prices in Vancouver last dropped 10%?!? Oh, prices dropped 15% over the course of 9 months in 2008 and didn’t stop dropping until the Bank of Canada essentially slashed interest rates to zero? Oh. Never mind, then!”
July 31st, 2010 at 10:42 am
Those van west numbers are as bad as west van. Everyone keep their pants on though–likely a big shift in sales mix accounts for a good chunk of this. Wait for the benchmarks.
But, once again, the west leads the way down.
July 31st, 2010 at 11:00 am
‘Landtricks’ Accusations
“I worked for a large developer until recently. Even I wasn’t aware of all the tricks, because only the owners of the largest development companies know of them.”
A series of accusation that developers in Vancouver and the lower mainland manipulate land transactions to their own advantage has been posted anonymously, and undated, on a website ‘landtricks.tripod.com’.
Archived and Discussed:
http://wp.me/pcq1o-18q
July 31st, 2010 at 11:00 am
fixie guy:
The upcoming BC bust will be big, no question. The current Alberta bust started in 2007 and much of the damage has already been done. Alberta also has the advantage of oil prices that are unlikely to go down much, so my guess is that BC/Alberta going forward from now will be about as big as BC/Alberta in the 80′s. BC worse, Alberta no so bad.
And that was the worst bust since the 30′s, but no level of government bailed anyone out, CMHC paid out mortgages as they were contracted to do, and life went on.
The upcoming Toronto bust will be slower as it’s not anywhere near as overpriced. Might not as bad as the one in the early 90′s.
My point here is I think that perhaps some people are getting a bit apocalyptic about the coming Canadian busts because they don’t remember previous ones. Indeed the Bank of BC and two Alberta banks went down in the 80′s, and I don’t anticipate any bank failures this time. Just think of it as a buying opportunity.
July 31st, 2010 at 11:13 am
@Anonymous: Haha, Ian Watt, what a tool. Why do I care to impress or excite the sellers? No financing? No inspection? No documentation? No conditions? Here’s how sellers will be impressed soon: an offer > $0.
July 31st, 2010 at 11:18 am
@chilled: Drugs, corruption and crime aren’t the only thing festering in this city. Don’t forget about the bed bugs too.
July 31st, 2010 at 11:23 am
@fixie guy:
Regardless of what Clinton had done, Bush became president in Jan 2001 and the Republicans had full control of Congress in Jan 2003 before the bubble became serious, and they had ample opportunity to reverse previous policies and prevent the crisis from ever happening. Instead, Bush made promoting home ownership at any cost or risk a central policy of his administration. Indeed he wanted to do away with whatever lending restrictions had existed under Clinton, as he said himself in the video I posted. He also appointed Bernanke as Fed chair one week after Bernanke told Congress in 2005 that there was no RE bubble and a fall in RE prices would not harm the financial system.
Bush wanted his “ownership society” and he would have got it no matter what Clinton or any other predecessor had done. The idea that policies made under Clinton inevitably led to the bubble and crisis is ridiculous. It makes about as much sense as blaming Clinton for the invasion of Iraq.
July 31st, 2010 at 11:27 am
@fixie guy: “Couldn’t be priced” that’s nonsense. The “toxic assets” couldn’t be priced, because they were never given a chance to. Bank accounting rules were changed to allow banks to mark their assets to fantasy, thus preventing the market from finding out what those MBSs were worth.
Asset price discovery always happens, when it is allowed to. And there’s a buyer for every asset, at some price.
July 31st, 2010 at 11:36 am
@anonymous: Don’t know why someone would vote you down. There’s nothing in the picture to believe that after the initial shock wears off prices will plummet. Just as likely, even more so, we are looking at a slow one or two decade long melt, Japan-style, absent dramatic external events. No one anywhere in the world is in a hurry to raise rates to historical norms, certainly not governments who have mountains of debt to service. A long slow process of deflation and deleveraging is upon us. The consumer won’t be back in force until their debt levels go back to the 30% range, that’s a long hard way down from 150%.
July 31st, 2010 at 11:36 am
Summary of July MoM average & median sold price changes from Larry:
Area / Avg Sold / Med Sold
————————————-
Van West / -12% / -9%
East Van / 3% / 6%
West Van / -22% / -15%
North Van / -9% / -4%
Richmond / 2% / 3%
Burnaby / -6% / 0%
July 31st, 2010 at 11:37 am
#97 So a bunch of frantic boys who are hyper focused on their pee pees turn you on? You have to be desperate for entertainment if the cities version of packaged, timed, patrolled, contained and modularized entertainment appeals to you. Did you ever read ‘The bird man of Alcatraz’? Ever been to Camden or Times Square, the Ginzu or a real city for that matter where ‘entertainment’ is not a scheduled event but in fact beats as the heart of a real metroplolis? This pride thing is like the other pathetic events put on by this shithole of a shopping mall puss bag, phony, crass and an excuse for the bush rats to pour out of their caves for a minute and mingle with people who normally wouldn’t be anywhere within a mile of them under other circumstance……..its sooooo freaking lame!!!!!!!!
*******I see the cops are trying to apologize in advance for the very real prospect of a public inquiry into the Pig Farm Killing fiasco. Front running this story is the back story that we all remember about how the top brass had gone on strike against the new chief who’d been brought in from Ontario over the selection of the dipshits here who had always thought that one of them should have got the job.
They refused to investigate the serial killings in protest of being passed over. When the chief then promoted the PH.D Rosmoe to the position of inspector over the crowd of high school dropouts who had been traditionally in line for the job the file was buried and the body count piled up. The hated genius Rosmoe told them who was doing the killing and where he could be found…… but until a certain flunky (from Richmond) got the inspectors job when the chief reluctantly accepted Rosmoes resignation ( he got a better offer from the FBI) to quell the revolt, the investigation was put on hold allowing at least twenty additional women to be murdered. The flunky got his inspectors job ( just like all the flunkies waiting will) and the families of the murdered got nothing but misery.
So now the dipshits are trying to say ‘we’re sorry’ Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha…..what a bunch of assholes. This is all going to come out in the public inquiry….wait and see…it was a common knowledge story at the the time….buried under the ignorance of an advertiser controlled press. Just like the RCMP’s failed attempt to cover up the murder of Djikanski this issue stinks and needs to be aired. It is not the 1940′s anymore when the practices of the cops wasn’t questioned., We all see now what a fetid rathole the cops administrative ranks are. The Federal government has rightly begun to tear down the walls of secrecy and power within these organizations. If it were a fair world we’d see the entire top handed their heads. On the stand these morons are going to be shown for the low quality ape shit that they really are.
July 31st, 2010 at 11:42 am
@Best place on meth: Don’t you mean third consecutive month?
http://vancouvercondo.info/201.....ment-84693
July 31st, 2010 at 11:47 am
@crashcow: sorry, wrong link. See this one: http://www.rebgv.org/housing-price-index
April was the peak, not May.
July 31st, 2010 at 12:25 pm
patriotz, too sunny out to go through all the errors in your post. Again, stemming from the perspective the American gov was handing out buckets of money directly for mortgages. That’s not how it worked. House ownership for low income was a Clinton policy. Glass–Steagall was repealed in the Clinton admin. The decision not to regulate over the counter derivatives was a Clinton policy, see Brooksley Born. You might have also noticed the timing of dot.com. Find “13 Bankers”.
July 31st, 2010 at 12:41 pm
@patriotz:
Since the comming bust in Ontario and other regions will not be big like the comming BC bust, the Federal government will credibly be able to say that the “Canadian” RE price correction in housing is not a crisis.
It may not be a crisis when declines are averaged over the whole country but in BC it will be a blood bath. But because the Canadian average price declines will not be at crisis levels, expect no free money from the Feds to prop up the bubble.
July 31st, 2010 at 2:09 pm
is there any way to get permission for Vancouver UnRealEstate?
I used to read it regularly, but it’s only open to invited readers now. Any insight would be appreciated.
Please mail me at jaketaylor.biz at gmail dot com
Thanks.
July 31st, 2010 at 2:09 pm
@anonymous:
Thats all fine as long as you can find buyers that have not already loaded on debt. The last two years squeezed the last juice from them, and now pretty much everybody is loaded – unless the prices do not go up, there will be no change in the people equity and they can not move up (but they can sell).
I think this is over.
July 31st, 2010 at 2:53 pm
@FlipFlop:
Last time I checked it had not had a post in over a year. I think either the server automatically locked it for being inactive, or the owner locked it to keep spammers out.
July 31st, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Thx patriotz
July 31st, 2010 at 3:32 pm
@patriotz:
Patriotz, you’re a smart guy but your political obsessions get the best of you.
“Regardless of what Clinton had done, Bush became president in Jan 2001 and the Republicans had full control of Congress in Jan 2003 before the bubble became serious”
Well, yeah, the bubble started to get serious in 2006 and the Dems then took control. And it’s then that House Finance chair Frank was telling F/F to roll the dice and Senate Banking Chair Dodd was taking sweetheart mortgages from Countrywide.
“Instead, Bush made promoting home ownership at any cost or risk a central policy of his administration.”
He just extended Clinton’s policy. The Community Reinvestment Act was brought in under Carter in 1977 to coerce banks into abandoning their risk models and increase lending to low income people, but it was Clinton who really blew it open, getting the community activists involved in blackmailing, I mean working with, banks. This is from the year 2000:
“A radical group called ACORN Housing has a $760 million commitment from the Bank of New York; the Boston-based Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America has a $3-billion agreement with the Bank of America; a coalition of groups headed by New Jersey Citizen Action has a five-year, $13-billion agreement with First Union Corporation. Similar deals operate in almost every major U.S. city. Observes Tom Callahan, executive director of the Massachusetts Affordable Housing Alliance, which has $220 million in bank mortgage money to parcel out, “CRA is the backbone of everything we do.”
http://www.city-journal.org/ht.....ollar.html
That was one root of the crisis. Then Fannie and Freddie started to gorge on subprime in 2004.
Interestingly enough, there was an attempt in 2005 to rein in F/F, when the then Senate Banking Committee voted to prohibit the GSEs from holding portfolios, and give their regulator the ability to set capital requirements.
If you’re looking for a political angle, every GOP on the Senate committee favoured that bill and the Dems took a party-line vote against, killing it before going to the floor.
July 31st, 2010 at 3:57 pm
@chip: Well, yeah, the bubble started to get serious in 2006 and the Dems then took control
Housing prices peaked in 2006. If you mean things got serious when TSHTF then yes. But the real warning signs started 2-3 years prior for those who chose to look for them.
July 31st, 2010 at 4:33 pm
http://www.businessweek.com/ma.....473272.htm
July 31st, 2010 at 4:41 pm
Objective comparables of Housing – US vs Canada
July 31st, 2010 at 6:55 pm
Confirming Bedbugs on transit, in movie theaters, hospitals etc etc. City of Vancouver is infested but the council is thinking that TOURISM WILL SUFFER AS A RESULT OF RECOGNITION….WAIT TILL THE INFESTATION MAKES HUGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE STAY AWAY…..IT WILL KILL THIS CITYS TOURISM FOR DECADES.
“There are a lot of different reasons people have them. One of them is travelling and picking up bedbugs in hotels. You can get them in movie theatres and anywhere. They’re hitchhikers, so if somebody has bedbug eggs on their pants and they go to a movie theatre the next one in picks them up and brings them home. You don’t know you have them for a month, but then you do.”
, it’s believed bedbugs are now in mass transit.
July 31st, 2010 at 7:18 pm
@realpaul:
Relax fecalpaul, the mayor is aware of the situation and he’s on it.
A new lane for the bedbugs is going in next week.
July 31st, 2010 at 7:43 pm
Richmond New Unit sales
1995 = 27
1996 = 71
1997 = 57
1998 = 28
1999 = 49
2000 = 32
2001 = 40
2002 = 43
2003 = 63
2004 = 32
2005 = 87
2006 = 118
2007 = 92
2008 = 33
2009 = 92
2010 = 22 down -76%
July 31st, 2010 at 8:17 pm
Self modding patriotz? The only negative points not realpaul factually contradict your errors. Curious that.
July 31st, 2010 at 9:20 pm
I’m not sure if much of the damage has been done in Alberta yet. Prices did fall about 15% from the 2007 peak before the BoC 0.25% taps were turned on and most of those losses had recovered, roughly 5% below the peak.
Things have really stalled the last two months though and unless the numbers change dramatically on the last day of July (or the CREB fluffs their numbers), Calgary SFH prices will be down 3.8% (mean) or 4.8% (median) in the last two months.
Meanwhile sales are down 48% from last July and MOI is sitting around 6.5. We’ll revisit the 2009 trough again before we see the 2007 peak.
And if anyone really believes that rich immigrants, and not cheap money, caused the housing boom, Mike Fotiou has this nice graph up on his blog:
http://findcalgary.files.wordp.....rical2.gif
July 31st, 2010 at 10:07 pm
12 Manhattan apartments under $500,000. Locations that make Vancouver look like Willy Pictons willy. This dump has a looooooooooooonnnnnggggggg way to fall.
http://nymag.com/realestate/features/66782/
July 31st, 2010 at 11:54 pm
@chip:
I’ve called you out before for making factually incorrect statements, and someone else called you out on your patently false claim about the housing bubble in the US “really getting going” when the Dems took over control of the house in 2006.
As for your suggestion above that the CRA of 1977 coerced banks into “abandoning their risk models”, this is complete Fox News style b.s. Here’s the “liberal” businessweek weighing in:
The patently false and implicitly racist claims about the 1977 CRA (i.e. “we would have had none of these problems had banks not been forced to loan money to black and brown people”) have been peddled by the same slime merchants that have been calling Obama–the most centrist Democratic president ever possibly–Stalin, Hitler, and Mao.
Oh, and here’s some more from that Business Week article:
Does any of the above support your contention that the 1977 CRA forced banks to “abandon their risk models?”
http://www.businessweek.com/in.....risis.html
August 1st, 2010 at 12:29 am
@realpaul 145
Those are surprisingly nice apts. I couldn’t believe the 1250 sq ft in Chelsea (!)
Another wake-up call to what we’re in for here when the whip of correction falls.
August 1st, 2010 at 1:21 am
I am set to move to Vancouver on what we refer to as a Secondment to work there for at least the next 3 years.
I get pretty decent benefits with the position and the rent allotment is roughly $2,750 per month along with another $195 for Utilities.
I’ve looked at a few apartments in the past few days and there are two I really like. The one is at the Smithe Mews literally right across from BC place and another at Strathmore Mews by David Lam Park. I am 26 and single and will be work at W Georgia and Howe.
The two places are the same size except for the one at Smithe Mews has a larger living room with smaller bedrooms while the one at Strathmore Mews has a smaller living room but a bit bigger bedrooms. I am leaning towards the Strathmore Mews one as the Smithe Mews one is so close to the BC place and apparently there is a Vegas style casino coming soon.
Any thoughts and suggestions will be much appreciated.
August 1st, 2010 at 1:35 am
@theproman23: I’d also recommend taking the apartment close to David Lam Park. For what it’s worth, I’d also be looking at places that are listed at over 3,000/month and talk the landlord down to your price. It sounds like you’d be a good tenant and, as such, you’d have a lot of bargaining power.
Check out this luxury 2BR/2BA at the Wall Centre, where the monthly rent (for at least a 6-month lease is listed at 3195. Notice, however, where they write “[f]or good, longer term tenants we would consider negotiating down the rate depending on their need.”
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....37675.html
Best of luck and welcome to Vancouver.
August 1st, 2010 at 4:07 am
@oneangryslav2:
Case-Shiller Composite 20 (January 2000 = 100)
Jan 2001 112.39 Bush takes office, Senate split, GOP controls House
May 2002 125.66 Bush announces major home ownership initiative.
Jan 2003 135.64 GOP completes takeover of House and Senate.
Jan 2005 176.44 Bush starts second term, GOP control of Congress continues
Jul 2006 206.52 Bubble peak
Jan 2007 202.31 Democrats take control of House and Senate
Jan 2009 146.34 Obama takes office, Dem control of Congress continues
The first mainstream calls of a US RE bubble were in late 2004.
http://www.standardandpoors.co.....us—-
August 1st, 2010 at 9:05 am
Great, another nutter. patriotz you’re clever enough to abuse the moderation system yet can’t graph the Case Shiller?
http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/6411/uscs2010.gif
Tell me when home prices started their ascent in the US.
August 1st, 2010 at 9:12 am
@Meat Robot:
Keep in mind that all of those New York apartments have brutal maintenance fees, $750 a month was mentioned as the low end of the bunch.
Also, some of them may be leasehold.
Looks like Vancouver condos finally got the smackdown that was due to them.
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
August 1st, 2010 at 9:40 am
Spam filter seems to be blocking the link to Larry’s July numbers (won’t let me post it). Anyway, they are out now, go check it out on yattermatters. It should be fun to read the official July REBGV report this week!
August 1st, 2010 at 10:16 am
Relax Realpaul! Vancouver’s not the only place with bed bugs.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp.....ty_bedbugs
August 1st, 2010 at 10:26 am
@McLovin:
The ultimate in brainless pandering from a pre-programmed politician:
“We want to send a message to bedbugs,” City Council Speaker Christine Quinn said, announcing the measure Wednesday: “Drop dead. Your days are over.”
What a douche.
August 1st, 2010 at 10:28 am
We can sit and talk about the price declines…
Or we can sit and talk about the declines AND actively participate in them.
Here’s the idea. —–(I’ve already done it, and gotten some interesting replies back)—–
1) Find developments that are overpriced for this environment.
2) Send emails to the agent, the sales team, and the marketing manager of the developer explaining that as a consumer you believe that the price is simply too high.
3) These emails MUST not be venting sessions, but include reason, analysis, comparables, etc.
4) Clearly communicate that incentives (free strata, HST, car etc) means nothing…You just want lower prices.
5) Remember what you are after, not to put them into their place, but to get price changes.
…You will be suprised how much sway a thoughtful and reasoned consumer objection can have in a board room. Companies pay big $ for focus groups. They desperately want to hear from consumers.
right NOW is the time, they have seen (first hand) the drop off in the post July 1 new housing market. No doubt they will be meeting this month to discuss marketing strategy for the fall market. It is my hope that with our encouragement, and at our suggestion, they will use “price” more than place, product, or promotion as their key strategy.
Let’s all try to send at least 3-5 of these emails a day until fall.
Let’s all go out there and make a difference.
August 1st, 2010 at 11:51 am
what smackdown, prices remain up 20% over last year?
August 1st, 2010 at 1:07 pm
#154 M, didn’t say Vanc was alone with the bedbug issue. I said Vanc was the most closeted on the issue and there are a greater number of buildings infested and a higher concentration of buildings infested in Vancouver than anywhere else. The article from Yahoo from NYC says a lot for that city which is coming to grips with the issue and doing something about it…Vancshitter….nothing. Typical ‘heads up their ass’ style of existence. Given the lack of effort to contain the infestation , the denial of its existence, and the concentration, transience and complete of hygiene in Vancouver we can conclude that Vancouver is number one in infestation, filth and denial.
August 1st, 2010 at 1:09 pm
That should read ‘complete lack of hygiene’….sorry
August 1st, 2010 at 1:30 pm
Unit sales July
2009 = 2010 = %change = area
5 = 4 = -20% Bowen Island
57 = 20 = -64% Burnaby East
215 = 112 = -47% Burnaby North
257 = 123 = -52% Burnaby South
304 = 166 = -45% Coquitlam
12 = 3 = -75% Islands-Van. & Gulf
79 = 18 = -77% Ladner
215 = 136 = -36% Maple Ridge
170 = 80 = -52% New Westminster
273 = 158 = -42% North Vancouver
41 = 22 = -46% Pitt Meadows
152 = 75 = -50% Port Coquitlam
119 = 62 = -47% Port Moody
632 = 292 = -53% Richmond
31 = 30 = -3% Squamish
95 = 55 = -42% Sunshine Coast
55 = 24 = -56% Tsawwassen
461 = 267 = -42% Vancouver East
880 = 553 = -37% Vancouver West
97 = 77 = -20% West Vancouver
35 = 19 = -45% Whistler
August 1st, 2010 at 1:34 pm
@Regular Poster of VCI: A good old letter writing campaign elicits memories from my stint in the DBE.
Good luck boys!
August 1st, 2010 at 1:41 pm
Jeff the realtor you been up all night doin blow with Ian Watt or what. RE up 20% over last year like to see some proof of that statement out of Jeff’s ass. I am in Seattle right now and things are down and desperate with regards to RE. Like people in Vancouver should know if you want to sell right now you need to lower your price. Real Estate is no longer the get rich quick scheme it once was.
August 1st, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Anonymous says:
August 1, 2010 at 20:44
Vanpro, the trick here is how to answer your question without sounding like a Rennie shill, and to say nothing while trying to sound as he actually knows something.
He is crafty, one of the best I have seen.
He will likely respond with…..
I’m glad you asked that question
I hear you
we agree on more than we disagree
there was a misunderstanding
He will also IMPLY, but will stay away from outright stating……..
Rich Asians, pot growers, Vancouver is different, the local incomes don’t matter, everyone wants to live here, shortage of land, no crime, rich people will send their kids here-no gangs, RE always goes up, this is the best place on earth.
Remember, you are not his target customer. The target customer is anyone who has already bought the above, nonsense.
August 1st, 2010 at 2:10 pm
@Disbelief
I don’t think Jeff is far off.
Prices are in fact up around somewhere that much.
No denying Van. was very bullish for a few months this spring.
All the knife catchers were out bidding up crap with the free money available.
Doesn’t mean that is the trend now or it will stay that way.
Sales are way off but it will take a bit longer to see a big change down in prices.
The sheeps psychology has to turn a bit first.
This is only the start.
August 1st, 2010 at 2:20 pm
@patriotz:
Patriotz wrote: F/F should have gone bankrupt. Period.
I completely agree. That’s not the point. I am telling you, they won’t let them go belly up. And in Canada, the CMHC will be supported in every possible way. Unless there is a serious information campaign letting people know about this massive scam.
August 1st, 2010 at 2:31 pm
@domus:
CMHC has to be supported. It’s a Crown Agency. Every obligation of CMHC is expressly guaranteed by the federal government just as much as a CSB is.
F/F were (and still are) investor-owned private sector companies, and the USG had no obligation or any valid reason (IMHO) to bail them out. That’s my point.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FNMA.OB
The true counterpart to CMHC in the US is FHA, not F/F. Too many people are mistaken about this.
August 1st, 2010 at 3:58 pm
No shock, data showing the US housing bubble was well underway during the Clinton administration was modded down. Here’s the Composite 10 index of the same data, once again showing a rise of over 60% before Bush made the policy changes patriotz claims were responsible. Of course, Bush took it to the next stage but any claim of discontinuity between regimes is fantasy.
http://img688.imageshack.us/im.....102010.gif
August 1st, 2010 at 4:38 pm
UNESCO adds 5 more sites to its World Heritage List.
Sadly, the Woodward’s building was not one of them.
http://www.redorbit.com/news/s.....=r_science
“The Best Place on Earth”™ continues to be shut out.
August 1st, 2010 at 4:51 pm
@fixie guy:
That graph of yours starts during the Reagan administration. Should we assume the bubble was really Reagan’s fault? I’m not claiming that Clinton can’t be held accountable for the housing price rise during his own administration – which was not unique in historical terms. Take a look at the big picture. When do things really get out of hand?
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepa.....raph2.html
I’m claiming that Bush must be held accountable for the massive and completely unprecedented national housing bubble that happened during his own administration and which he personally promoted. Claiming that “the bubble was already under way” or was enabled by prior policies is no excuse. Bush had no qualms about throwing out out any of his predecessors’ policies when he felt like it. The very idea that Clinton had created some sort of unstoppable trend is absurd.
“The buck stops here”.
August 1st, 2010 at 4:54 pm
@patriotz:
Patriotz, you don’t seem to be willing to listen to what I am telling you.
I will say it one more time: I am aware of the status of the CMHC. The government can: (1) pull the plug on a crown corporation by selling its assets; (2) sell the whole corporation to a third private party or (3) sizeably reduce its operating budget, while keeping it as a crown corporation.
What I am telling you, if you are willing to listen (are you?), is that none of these options is on the table. The plan seems to be straight sailing.
One more thing: the US F/F were private institutions, but it was clear that they were being implicitly living in the shadow of the taxpayers’ guarantee. In Canada, things are not that different: the link to the private markets are the banks, which extract large royalties from the CMHC guarantee.
Different systems, same substance.
August 1st, 2010 at 5:18 pm
@domus:
Whatever it does, the government cannot back out of CMHC’s existing obligations. Whatever juggling is performed with the assets cannot change this. That’s my whole point really.
I would like to see CMHC stop issuing mortgage insurance tomorrow and be wound down. That has about as much chance of happening as Stephen Harper understanding selection bias.
With regard to F/F, their bondholders were certainly betting on a government bailout which they had no right to receive, and they got it. Those are the facts. And you can argue the “could haves” and “should haves” forever.
August 1st, 2010 at 6:29 pm
Hi, we’ve been living in Japan for the past 11 years, and if I can pay off some debts soon, am hoping to move to Vancouver in time for my son to start junior high school in Vancouver (he’s currently in grade 5). I am Canadian, and my wife’s Japanese. If I’m not able to pay off the debts soon, I’m hoping to send my wife and son there so my son can learn English and experience Canadian culture.
I’m looking for a safe neighborhood, reasonable living costs including reasonable apartments, and a decent junior high school. Recommendations would be of great help, especially since my Japanese wife isn’t confident about living in Canada without me there.
August 1st, 2010 at 7:20 pm
Does anyone know what day next week the rebgv stats package will be released? Thx
August 1st, 2010 at 8:17 pm
@Okayama:
I can help with wife and her confidence about living in Canada. Just drop me a line and we’ll get it all sorted out.
August 1st, 2010 at 8:24 pm
Way off topic, but Whistler (Olympic venue host) is marketing to Brazil…
Tourism Whistler looks beyond North America to attract visitors
Reaching as far as Latin America and Asia
http://www.news1130.com/news/l.....t-visitors
August 1st, 2010 at 8:26 pm
@Okayama: You can find places in the The West End (not the west side) with reasonable rents and send the kid to King George Secondary.
August 1st, 2010 at 8:31 pm
@patriotz: “Whatever it does, the government cannot back out of CMHC’s existing obligations
There are subtle tricks that can be done to prolong or at least lessen the impact to the books, including tying up payments in the courts on technicalities and reading the MI contracts to a tee, uncovering any loopholes or gray areas to void a contract. In fact CMHC should be doing this as we speak. Play dirty. Play hard. It’s our money.
August 1st, 2010 at 8:39 pm
jesse #177 wrote:
“In fact CMHC should be doing this as we speak. Play dirty. Play hard. It’s our money”
Yes, they should check the original loan applications and see there were any “untruths” such as their income, source of their downpayment, etc….and if so, tell the banks those loans an are not backed by CMHC.
August 1st, 2010 at 9:01 pm
@crashcow:
Only Cameron Muir knows for sure. He knows all.
But seriously, the stats should be out Tuesday.
August 1st, 2010 at 9:11 pm
#172 Oka, It is highly recommended that you choose your neighbourhood according to the cachements school performance. Otherwise you could end up in a sub par performing school that would guarantee your childs failure to gain matriculation into University. Many schools in Vancouver ( BC generally) has extremely poor performance grades and the number of kids who graduate with University Entrance marks is dismal in those areas.
There is a book available through Richmond Chapters called ‘University Entrance Secrets – Why Being Smart is Not Enough’ that details how to access the best quality information to ensure your child has a shot at higher education in Canada. Don’t be misled by the Teachers federation, the school system in BC is decrepit, antiquated, union biased, paycheque centric….not the best enviornment for education.
Heres where to start finding out which neighborhoods not to locate in. Once you get your child in a bad highschool it will be hard to get them on track.
http://britishcolumbia.compare.....yArea.aspx
August 1st, 2010 at 9:22 pm
@crashcow:
Oh, hang on. This just in: (holding hand to imaginary earpiece like oneangryslav pretending to be Jon Stewart)
Cameron Muir’s magic penis has just determined that the stats will be out at exactly 1:43 pm on Tuesday.
The fabled willy also expects benchmark prices to be down 1.7% overall.
August 1st, 2010 at 9:23 pm
Daaaannng…..the school I went to is near the bottom of the list….things must have gone downhill after I left
August 1st, 2010 at 9:36 pm
@sensibleone: “Once you get your child in a bad highschool it will be hard to get them on track.”
Well is the school’s performance because of the school or because of the children’s background? If you want a good catchment, be prepared to pay for it.
Many schools have extremely high university enrollment after graduation but look at the parents for part of the reason why. Moving to an “average” school catchment but being able to afford sending your kids on life-changing summer trips and enrolling them in top-notch extra-curricular programs may actually yield similar or better results than having to scrimp and save to afford a Marpole teardown in the Churchill catchment.
Better yet, if you want Churchill AND the trips and extras to boot, rent.
August 1st, 2010 at 9:45 pm
#172 Oka: We moved back to Canada from Oregon 4 years ago. Visited 3 high schools (our son was entering grade 11). Selected Point Grey Secondary, and chose to rent in Kerrisdale so he could walk to school. I’ve heard Magee is pretty good for middle school, which is very close to Pt. Grey. We were very pleased with the results, as was our son, now at UBC. Involved parents, lots of activities, good stats on % students going on to universities across Canada. Largely a fairly wealthy area, very diverse (Anglo-Asian), good walking district and mass transit, good community centre with pool, lots of multi-family rental housing. 2 bd, 2 bath in nice building runs from $1700/mo. and up. No point buying right now–try out the neighbourhood and await a much better-priced 2011-2012 and beyond. Best of luck!
August 1st, 2010 at 9:47 pm
@sensibleone: “Don’t be misled by the Teachers federation, the school system in BC is decrepit, antiquated, union biased, paycheque centric….not the best enviornment for education.”
Save the rhetoric. It’s not much different anywhere else from what I’ve seen. Having gone to an “average” school, there were still enough top-notch kids who studied and socialized together to garner amongst them excellent enrollment yields into universities. In the latter years of high school, the courses and extra-curriculars were built to self-select based on university-track or non-university track. Competition was pretty fierce and there were lots of events with other schools. I’d be surprised if this group did any worse than the prep schools, after accounting for financial head starts.
August 1st, 2010 at 10:04 pm
Bear now that Vancouver city hall on bed bug patrol Vancouver real estate market about to take off like wildfire bomber plane. Rich asian waiting on sideline for bed bug destruction program to be finished before buying like crazy again. Once bed bug gone you bear lose again.
August 1st, 2010 at 10:10 pm
Vancouver beaches are really dirty, good to clean this up. Tons of garbage and McDonalds packages just left behind on Kits beach. The City Beach patrols that can ticket people for leaving garbage behnind.
August 1st, 2010 at 10:14 pm
another US recession to kick-off the upcoming housing correction?
http://dshort.com/articles/ECR.....Index.html
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:06 am
@jesse:
I went to school in a small town and the kids in my classes wound up becoming everything from convicts to university professors.
Education is not manufacturing. The outcome is up to the student. Surprising how many people think otherwise.
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:34 am
@Regular Poster of VCI:
Developers are always concerned about getting their product mix and prices right. You don’t need to start a letter writing campaign to get that point across. They know this all too well.
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:35 am
#180…..school stats compiled by the Fraser Institute?? Gaacckk!
Fraser Institute…home of those noted economic geniuses Preston Manning, Neils Veldhuis and Mike Harris.
Washed-up neocon hack and ex-Ontario Premier Harris just recommended that his buddy Frank Stronach receive a 1 billion dollar payout to convert his “voting shares” into ordinary shares….shares that represent less than one percent of Magna International equity but will give Frank an 1800% premium compared to the average 30% conversion premium in other deals.
Well, after all, I guess it’s only fair…. didn’t Frank put Harris on the Magna Board…..?
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:41 am
Any views from the trenches this wonderful weekend?
My two cents is that some people are starting to hear that things are slowing down. It seems a few people I have spoken to have a story of someone who has not had a showing in a month in Surrey or knows someone who is stuck with a condo in Kelowna. It appears to even the uninformed that the market is cooling. Will this have an effect on people or will they jump in thinking 8% off is an “amazing” deal?
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:45 am
This blogger threw in the towel and shut down his blog and bought one year ago in Victoria. I wonder how much he’s down?
http://www.victoriastruth.blogspot.com/
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:06 am
@McLovin:
Overheard a conversation at the grocery store:
“We put our Tsawassen property up for sale but the market is really slow and we haven’t gotten any offers”
“What are you going to do?”
“If it doesn’t sell we’ll just rent it out, we’re not going to sell it for less than it’s worth”
The perception that home prices are still worth all time highs is still out there. It’s going to take some frightening headlines to change that in the general population. There are many excuses right now that can be used: HST, summer/seasonal slowdown, demand was pulled forward to take advantage of low rates… It will be harder to hide from lower sales, higher listings and falling prices by October/November. That would make a trend that would be hard for the general public not to notice.
If you didn’t have time to watch the TED video in “Primate economics. Helps explain bubbles and dumb decisions people make with $$$”, the punchline is very interesting. Basically, if a person’s home was once worth $1 million and they have a choice of either:
1) selling it now for $950,000 or
2) taking a chance that by waiting a month it will either rise again to $1 million or fall even further to $900,000
they will take the risk that waiting another month will avoid the loss (even though it exposes them to further losses). That sums up exactly what I’m seeing now, the general population still thinks that waiting it out will bring a return to record highs. Hence the number of expiries and moderate price declines.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:12 am
patriotz says:
Education is not manufacturing. The outcome is up to the student. Surprising how many people think otherwise.
———————————–
Many people believe if they send their kids to the “best schools”, their kids will become rocket scientists. The real real estate industry capitalizes on this type of thinking. Just read how many houses for sale has the description with “house in ______ school catchment” or “close to the best schools”.
Imagine if the parents of every C- students buy a house in the #1 ranked public school catchment, I can say with great certainty that school will lose its #1 ranking in a few short years. C- students don’t become A students just by going to a top school.
At the same time, the schools that had these C- students will see their rankings go up because they are not pulled down by the marks of the C- students.
There are 8 west side public schools in Vancouver district(VSB). According to the ranks from the link provided by sensibleone #180, all 8 of these schools’ ranking dropped in the current year (2008-2009)compared to their most recent 5 years. Notice that Eric Hamber is ranked BELOW east side’s David Thompson in 2008-2009 when Hamber was above Thompson by 36 spots in the most recent 5 years. Also Kitilano (which dropped 45 spots from most recent 5 years) ranked just above David Thompson by only 5 spots.
I acknowledge the 2008-2009 Vancouver data may be an abnormality, but if this trend holds up, house in these “best schools” catchments may need some other selling features such as “they’re not making any more land in the west side”.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:19 am
@Anonymous:
“If it doesn’t sell we’ll just rent it out, we’re not going to sell it for less than it’s worth”
That’s exactly what I love to hear.
I want all of these greedy c*******ers to wake up one morning, realize that they’ve lost another 20% because they held out for “what it’s worth” while the much smarter, non-douchebag sellers took the market price and ran.
Then I want them to curl up into a fetal position and cry for days on end
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:21 am
patriotz, would you like me to edit the data series in that graph to make it easier for you to see home prices were flat of slightly falling over Clinton’s first term? Do I need to point out it takes time for markets to reflect policy changes? I mistook you for someone who wanted to engage in a real discussion of the root causes of the bubble, my mistake.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:22 am
Funny how much denial there is around the defense of the teachers unions. Is this a product of the constant barrage of propaganda from the BCTF over the years? The fact is ( and I posted the link) that some schools produce high numbers of grads with university entrance marks while others are not…Surrey for example produces less than 2%….how can you explain that through any of the excuse given by random posters. The stats show that it is always the school and nothing to do with ‘life changing trips’ and such nonsense.
Children are all abnout their enviornment, the peer group directs the focus of the herd…without a vision of excellence instilled among the general population the direction of the student body is dicedley up or down…there doesn’t seem to be any middle ground. The BCTF has zero tolerance for excellance, I don’t think any of you has any experiance with the school system as it has been for the past twenty years. The new politically charged reality of the teachers unions is nothing like the small town where you grew up with convicts and happened to make it out. Examine the circumstances which drive the individual and you will find the profile of the society. It ain’t your granpa’s education system anymore. Most are you sound attached to an emotional memory of your past it sounds like and your in denial when the facts are staring you right in the face. Why not try and beat the odds and get your kids into a decent school….statistically you’re thousands of percent more like ly to see your child succeed if you get your kid into a school where the emphasis is on excellance other than the BCTF’s vision of the working mans paradise.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:38 am
sensibleone, the reason some schools have better results is entirely about self selection by the parents. Parents with the means and inclination will make sure their children go to a “good school” and will also provide other resources that will ensure the child’s success. These schools end up being in wealthy neighbourhoods for what should be obvious reasons. Students go to good schools because they are advantaged, not the other way around.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:00 am
@Anonymous: Along those lines…caught a tv show this morning called “Real Estate Intervention”. LOL. Guess “Flip this House” ain’t so popular anymore. Gist of the show is homeowners overprice homes and a real estate “consultant” breaks the news that they need to lower their price, shows them comps to prove that etc…
Same idea. Owners are resistant to lower to less than they invested themselves as “that is the minimum of what the house is worth”. Otherwise they prefer to rent their house out…to wait for the market to come back to normal. It still has not sunk in that those bubble years were NOT normal…
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:25 am
#199 V, so your saying that good parenting has a lot to do with a childs success at school…no argument there. ‘Self selection by parents’……..thats exactly what I’m saying….don’t locate in a shitty school district….it’s not difficult to see how shitty school districts produce a higher percentage of shitty students. No one forces you to live in Langley or some such toilet. Putting your child ahead of your ‘house selection’ should be primary and unfortuneatley isn’t. The way people usually work is find a house they can afford….anywhere….and then dump the kid into the local school….most often with predictable results. All school saren’t the same…that is obvious by the statistics that are thrown out.
Of course the BCTF wants you to look the other way on school performance…this is not because of the children…this is because the teachers don’t want to work any harder than they have to. In the mindset of the BCTF the students are in the way of their political agenda so they mmove the kids around like little garbage cans to fill up with propaganda and when the kids fail the union blames it on ‘underfunding’. Too bad the kids get the shaft in the BCTF’s political game.
Beat the BCTF at their own game where the parents are pushing for excellence and the students have their sights set higher than the BCTF propaganda can influence. School is about getting YOUR child an education…not a place to learn about the agenda of the BCTF. Look at the stats…avoid the schools where the ignorance is on full blast…..get your kid into a good school where they are statistically more likely to succeed. You might have to sacrifice personally and not get the square footage and the car of your dreams but you will have done the right thing by your child.
And no…you don’t have to send your kid to Europe to ensure they go to UNI. There are plenty of good programs that fill your childs mind with positive outcomes…it’s up to you to be child focused and not focused on the car, career and ‘valley view’. Leave your ego at the door when it comes to parenting.
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:27 am
I wouldn’t defend the teacher’s union (there are some bad teachers that the union needs to stop protecting), but those surveys are garbage. The reason is exactly what you’ve stated:
I’m as concerned about the people in my neighborhood as the schools themselves. If parents let their kids get away with a C being acceptable, not doing their homework, or skipping school without dire consequences, then that can start to corrupt my kids. There’s nothing like a strong community to raise your kids in. Parents who are involved, kids with extra curricular activities, etc.
That’s why schools in Whalley never rank as high in those surveys as say White Rock (same city different peer group).
You’re lying/exaggerating about this though:
I’m a parent in the surrey school district and to suggest that 2% or 6 out of a typical grad class of 300 go on to university is ridiculous. The school that my children will eventually go to had almost $500,000 worth of scholarships for less than 300 students.
Surrey has come in above the provincial average for years now.
http://www.sd36.bc.ca/general/quickfacts.html
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:46 am
I’m not sure word of the cooling market has reached some demographics yet. We went to an open house in Burnaby near Lougheed mall on the weekend and there were 4 Korean and Chinese families going through with realtors and talking about putting in offers on the spot. Apparently the house had been on the market for 5 days and already had two offers. Even the realtor seemed surprised. Keep in mind this was a bungalow asking $650K… so not exactly a steal. We’ll keep waiting.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:00 pm
@Anonymous:
Typical human psychology that results in buying high and selling low: buy when everyone else is buying, sell when everyone else is selling, guarantees a loss every time.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:01 pm
“My two cents is that some people are starting to hear that things are slowing down.”
…and here’s how you can help!
I mailed a copy of Inventory’s most recent sales stats for July to everyone on my list. It is on this site.
Spread the joy!
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:05 pm
@sensibleone: Correlation is not causation.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:22 pm
Yesterday the significant other and I went for a stroll around Millenium Village (or whatever it’s being called these days) and went through a few of the open houses. Prices weren’t shown (even on the spec sheets) at the ones we went through so I asked an agent the price of the three-bedroom view suite we were viewing – surprisingly he said that the owner/developer was originally asking $1,250,000 but would probably take $1,000,000 to $1,025,000 – quite a significant drop in only a matter of months. He seemed quite desperate, I might add, although it must be depressing trying to sell units down there in ghost village.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:24 pm
@sensibleone: Realpaul, why are you hiding behind a different screen name? As someone who grades a lot of papers, I have developed the ability to recognize different writing styles very easily. My second clue that it was you was the content. And the clincher was the link to the Fraser Institute report, the methodology of which has been debunked in these pages before.
For those who were not here, or do not remember the debate, the Fraser Institute scores for “quality of education” are measuring parental income. This–and not quality of education–is what the scores essentially mean.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:33 pm
#202 A, I said ‘graduate with university entrance marks’ not ‘auto shop and home economics’. The Surrey School Board has neglected to specify what the grads were actually achieving. Its true they have consistently tried to dumb down the statistics to suit the BCTFs campaign of obfuscation.
Sure….if you want hairdressers and pump jockeys they’re ‘graduating’ the numbers required under the contract ( the average) what a joke that is…don’t let the headlines fool you…the Fraser Institute has only published the facts..not commented on the agenda…its the BCTF that hates the truth getting out…why hate the messenger? Keep in mind that the schools now separate the kids at Grade Nine now, into academic and vocational tracks….that allows the BCTF to lower the bar and not have Math Science etc etc ‘get in the way’ of generating bogus graduation stats.
They also require the kids to fill out the transition docs in the classroom without a parents supervision ( so its too late to change course when the parents have found out that little Billy has decided to take the slackers program) and of course the peer pressure shunts a majority into the non university track , making it easier for the teachers to dumb down and slack off. You have to stay on top of whats happening eh…its a sleazy tactic that the teachers have tried to pull.
I went to a grad ceremony in White Rock a couple of years ago….3 Chinese kids got all the scholarships available. Nuture and nature?
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:38 pm
@sensibleone: Realpaul, answer this question, would you? Does the BCTF only have power in the bad schools? Are there no union teachers in the better schools? Is there a self-selection process occurring whereby those teachers who share the BCTF’s quest for mediocrity choose to teach in the worst schools, while the teachers who defy the BCTF and try to foster excellence select the best schools?
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:38 pm
The Fraser Institute takes the scores off the provincial exams…it doesn’t use parents income as a benchmark…thats just unionist rhetoric. Set your hair on fire in the union hall where someone will notice.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:43 pm
@Devore: Actually, the mechanism at work, which is most closely linked to the work of Kahneman and Tversky) is one in which a loss of X dollars creates more disutility than the utility of a gain of X dollars. Thus, people weight losses more heavily than they weight gains.
This research laid the groundwork for work in behavioral economics, which eschewed the theretofore dominant paradigm of the rational actor. Tversky and Kahnemann showed that actors are from from rational.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:48 pm
@sensibleone: Of course, it doesn’t measure parents’ income, but that what is essentially being measured. In study after study, the strongest predictor of school performance is parents’ income. Class size, teacher quality, amount of homework, hours of instruction, etc., are all inferior–to parental income–as predictors of test scores and other measures of student learning and achievement.
August 2nd, 2010 at 12:52 pm
@sensibleone:
Really, what was the name of the school? What year? You won’t reply, cause you’re full of crap and you know it. You’re only going to listen to what you want to hear so there’s no point in arguing since you prefer your opinion to facts.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:17 pm
Ok, I’m sorry, I spouted a bunch of insane accusatory rhetoric at The Fraser Insitute and the posters here on this site. I have a huge student loan and I only get part time substitute work. I’m relying on the union to bail me out. The financial pressure has made me crazy. My boyfriend left me, my dog ran away and my Mom won’t loan me any more money. I was a lazy ass throughout my academic career and settled for teaching as a fall back position when I failed at everything else. I chose to be ‘Anonymous’ because I feel like such a loser. So sorry guys , but I can’t handle the truth. Wahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:37 pm
I remember when this site used to be about real estate.
Nice job polluting the board realpaul/sensibleone.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Why are you letting that fucking troll moron highjack this site again?!!! He’s crying for attention as nobody out there in the “real” world will listen to him. He has a captive (and apparently attentive) audience here in this virtual world. Ironic isn’t it? Ignore it and him. Please.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:56 pm
Sure hope this blog doesn’t go the way of albertabubble.blogspot.com.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:57 pm
@Anonymous: Well, we already know economic actors aren’t rational, something compounded by usually conflicting long- and short-term considerations and government distortions of economic signals, but it’s good to have someone to quote in your bibliography when writing about it. It’s why central planning will fail every time.
It’s pretty arrogant to think everyone does what is in their best interest. Reality is we do, at best, what we PERCEIVE to be in our best interest. Just look at any bubble.
August 2nd, 2010 at 1:59 pm
Also, the rational actor view also assumes we have complete and accurate information about the market, and a bunch of other idealized economic nonsense.
August 2nd, 2010 at 2:16 pm
DT-FN condo inventory is down 20% over the last month. (See here.) Is there an explanation for this that does not rely on bear wishful thinking?
August 2nd, 2010 at 2:23 pm
Florida condos for less than a Prius.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries.....index.html
August 2nd, 2010 at 3:08 pm
All that anti-BCTF rhetoric is so tiring. Quit blaming teachers for your child’s poor performance. Step up to the plate and be parents for crying out loud.
Looking at the Fraser Institute results is silly because they don’t adjust for income levels.
1) You are paying through the nose to live in an area that (I will assume) is pushing your affordability limits. You therefore have to trade off your children’s extra-curricular activities and vacation quality to do this.
2) You assume that surrounding yourself with affluent people will usher your child into university. Maybe, because you and your children will be at a financial disadvantage compared to your peers, you will be on the bottom of the curve in the Fraser Institute studies of your area.
The BCTF is in an awkward position: since socioeconomic factors strongly affect academic performance, it muddies the waters about actual teacher and school quality. Going down the road of accepting stratification does a severe disservice to some children from lower incomes who deserve on merit to succeed. Luckily even the “bad” schools and teachers are good enough to allow these kids to go to university. I’ll take that over some lazy rich kid any day.
But maybe you’re right. Maybe surrounding yourself with wealth will make you wealthy. Here’s some inspiration for you:
Herman Blume’s Speech
August 2nd, 2010 at 3:27 pm
@Dan in Calgary: Don’t worry, Dan. It’s nearing the end of a long weekend without much real estate news. Once Pope creates a new blog post, the comments will reflect that change.
As for real estate news, my sister had an open house (in Coquitlam) yesterday and there weren’t many attendees. It’s been on the market for seven weeks now and there has been no offer yet.
August 2nd, 2010 at 3:54 pm
oneangryslav2 Says
“It’s been on the market for seven weeks now and there has been no offer yet”
———————————
No disrespect intended, but perhaps it’s overpriced relative to other similar listings in the neighbourhood. If she wants to sell now, she may need to lower the asking price. Just my 2 cents.
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:04 pm
@Jimmy: I agree. I also think they’re asking too much. A $30,000 cut would probably get a few nibbles. We’ll see. I’ll keep everyone posted.
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:07 pm
Can anyone explain what the legal implications are if you buy a house that has had renovations done without permits? The place we looked at on the weekend had all new plumbing and electrical but the realtor said the homeowner did it all himself and didn’t get permits for the work. He then tried to justify it by saying the homeowner was an “engineer”, as if that somehow implies he knows how to re-plumb a house.
Besides the obvious safety concerns, what legal issues could a new homeowner encounter in this type of situation? I’m wondering if the house burned down because the previous owner didn’t wire something correctly, would the new owner’s insurance refuse to cover it?
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:11 pm
Bear teacher and rich asian buy condo like bear buy toilet paper. Hard to understand for poor little bear scratching at slit of light in moldy basement but it’s true. Reason why kid do so well with union teacher is because of smart real estate investment by teacher. Bear you should have paid more attention in school.
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:14 pm
@203
My wife is attending the free English courses available for new Canadian immigrants and PR’s at Mosaic center on commercial dr. In her class she talked to two of her classmates. One is a woman from china and her occupation is “real estate investor” and the other is an Indonesian woman who works at KFC. She separately asked both of them their opinion of Vancouver real estate, the Chinese woman said without a doubt it is going down now. The Indonesian woman said Vancouver real estate is going up right now. I would like to mention the Indonesian woman lives in a 7br house half of which is rented out.
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:55 pm
Down in LA for a few weeks. I met a friends husband today who is a professional actor. When I brought up the possibility of him getting work in Vancouver he said the following:
“Not anymore. They still do some production work up there, but most of the acting work has gone to Detroit. With the high $CAD it’s not really worth it.”
Has another BC industry bitten the dust? Is there anything doing well right now that isn’t RE related?
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:11 pm
@crabman: Thanks for the made up anecdote, but you have no clue
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:29 pm
Crabman says:
“Not anymore. They still do some production work up there, but most of the acting work has gone to Detroit. With the high $CAD it’s not really worth it.”
Detroit and other “depressed” US cities have provided tax incentives for production to be done in those cities.
The high CAD vs USD has made every exporting industry suffer, including film industry.
Forestry is another example….lumber at US$300 x 1.50 = CA$450; at current FX rates: US$300 x 1.03 = CA$309; a reduction of $110 revenue when costs in CAD.
Strong CAD is great from cross border shopping, but lousy for exporting industries.
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:31 pm
* 141
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:40 pm
@Anonymous:
Yet another quote straight out of Ben Jones’ Housing Bubble Blog circa 2005. It’s like some Star Trek or Twilight Zone episode where people are stuck in a time loop but don’t realize it.
I will extrapolate a bit and assume they plan to buy a new place and rent out the old one until the market “recovers”. For the outcome, check Housing Bubble Blog circa 2007.
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:45 pm
OMG. This is what you get in Seattle for $1.8mill. Actually you could prob get it for $1.6.
http://www.historicseattlelakefront.com/
August 2nd, 2010 at 5:56 pm
vhb says: DT-FN condo inventory is down 20% over the last month. (See here.) Is there an explanation for this that does not rely on bear wishful thinking?
you really expecting carnage downtown? this is a market thats more or less been stagnant for three years. the flippers have primarily exited the market over that time. demand has not exactly lit it up but either has supply. some post olympic shake out is in order. i’d look to the suburbs for more drama, leaky condo liquidations and rental restriction bylaws are a couple of factors helping a bearish demand/supply dynamic.
August 2nd, 2010 at 6:08 pm
@GB:
And if that price tag is a bit rich for you the house right next door, also lake front, recently sold for $675K.
http://www.zillow.com/homes/12.....en,-WA_rb/
August 2nd, 2010 at 6:13 pm
@ crabman
Conversely, I was talking to someone scouting locations in town for a major shoot just last Friday who said the opposite, things are busy here.
August 2nd, 2010 at 6:41 pm
@crabman:
“Down in LA for a few weeks. I met a friends husband today who is a professional actor. When I brought up the possibility of him getting work in Vancouver he said the following:
“Not anymore. They still do some production work up there, but most of the acting work has gone to Detroit. With the high $CAD it’s not really worth it.”
Has another BC industry bitten the dust? Is there anything doing well right now that isn’t RE related?”
There are several major productions shooting in Vancouver this summer. Your friend’s husband shouldn’t blame Vancouver for the fact that he can’t get a gig.
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:02 pm
@Zergling: “Can anyone explain what the legal implications are if you buy a house that has had renovations done without permits?”
I remember one place I saw that had the breaker box in the downstairs bathroom. If you do buy the place, ask for discounts because there were no permits. If the Realtor says that the “normal” practice is for Vancouver to have illegal renos so there is no discount, laugh, because it’s a lie.
In terms of legal implications, I think the City can inspect and tell you (the owner) to bring it up to code but I don’t know what latitude they have for fines for non-compliance. In Vancouver, they usually only inspect upon receiving a complaint.
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:13 pm
Eh, I went to one of those lower ranked schools and here I am — a well paid professional living in the best place on earth sipping cranteenies on my patio like everyone else that went to York House. Ok, so I’m a jizzbag renter and my landlord has a beehive, so what?
I can’t tell you how many chinese families I’ve met that have wanted to move to the west side so their kids could go to the best private schools. They are willing to sacrifice a lot financially to make this happen. Personally I think this is a waste of money. This isn’t the U.K. — nobody here gives a damn what school anyone went to. At the end of the day how you prove yourself after school is over is what matters.
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:24 pm
@Anonymouse: “I can’t tell you how many chinese families I’ve met that have wanted to move to the west side so their kids could go to the best private schools.”
You should tell them private schools don’t have catchments!
I remember having a great discussion over how one’s quality of education at grade school, not university, is the largest determinant of future success.