242 Responses to “Friday free-for-all!”
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July 30th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
THINK ABOUT YOUR BREATHING BEAR
Yes that’s right, THINK ABOUT YOUR BREATHING. Why you might ask? Well it’s simple!
Your brain usually takes care of breathing FOR you, but whenever you remember this, YOU MUST MANUALLY BREATH! If you don’t you will DIE.
There are also MANY variations of this. For example, think about:
* BLINKING!
* SWALLOWING SALIVA!
* HOW YOUR FEET FEEL IN YOUR SOCKS!
* YOUR PARENTS HAVING SEX THE NEXT TIME YOU MASTURBATE
In conclusion, the THINK ABOUT YOUR BREATHING troll is simply unbeatable. These 4 words can be thrown randomly into article text, into sigs, into anything, and once seen, WILL FORCE THE VICTIM TO TAKE CARE OF HIS BREATHING MANUALLY! This goes far beyond the simple annoying or insulting trolls of yesteryear.
In fact, by EVEN RESPONDING to this or voting it down, you are proving that IT HAS CLAIMED ANOTHER VICTIM — YOU!
July 30th, 2010 at 10:29 pm
@Drachen:
The irony is that you haven’t been right about a single thing yet keep repeating some fake imaginary score about my predictions.
The reality is that I called the first top, the bottom, the recovery and I predicted prices would have reached a new peak this past spring. I have been dead on with rental rates and wage growth. All of this is well documented in the past two years of my postings.
You might not like what I have to say, but you cannot deny that I have called the big picture stuff correctly.
July 30th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
@CashedOut:
Existing owners are somewhere around 70 to 80% of market activity. You would have to be pretty naive to think that has no effect on supply or demand. It was a stupid statement and I called him on it.
Likewise, adding to the supply and not selling will still have a market effect. Let’s face it, most of you have been obsessed with this very metric for the last six months for obvious reasons.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
For all the slagging that goes on on this blog about Vancouver being shitty this and shitty that I want to post something positive.
I just took a swing by Davie St and it was going off! Its a huge street party for Pride weekend and there are people from all over North America here. It seems like a super fun party with bands and a DJ. An event like this going on and being welcome by the people is still quite rare in this world.
I know this has nothing to do with Vancouver real estate but things like this make me proud to live in this city!
July 30th, 2010 at 9:42 pm
Well Mr. Watt, cash offer actually DOES mean not subject to finance. Just a little detail there. No biggy. &-|
July 30th, 2010 at 9:38 pm
@ Best place on meth:
Yup. This makes me think sales activity must have been pretty slow. It’s pretty aggressive to suggest that a good offere would have no subjects in it. What kind of a buyer does that!?!?
On a side note, I lived in the US for 10 years before moving back to Vancouver (I went there for grad school then stayed for a bit more) and saw the whole crumbling of the US economy and real estate market unfold right before my eyes. I’m seeing exactly the same thing happening here. It’s like deja-vu (all over again? lol).
July 30th, 2010 at 9:26 pm
This Ian Watt seems quite a character. I would be unwilling to share a swimming pool with him, let alone a full and lengthy negotiation.
A bit aggressive, uh? Chill out mate.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:25 pm
@Anonymous:
Who gives a shit what impresses his clients? I’m supposed to pass on the inspection just to impress his fucking clients?
Ian Watt – you pathetic, worthless asshole. You look like you’re getting less sleep and more cocaine.
Try shaving, that might impress your clients.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:23 pm
Patriotz: tru that Paulson guaranteed the FF, as you call them. I think at that point pretty much any treasury secretary would have done the same. It was a disaster waiting to happen, I think it would be the same in Canada (even though you believe the Cons would not do it). I think that under the short term pressure of a major crash, politicians always go for the easy short term fix.
July 30th, 2010 at 9:18 pm
Real estate agents are getting anxious. No inspections?!?!
http://www.ianwatt.ca/Blog.php/2797
July 30th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
Paulb / VHB / Inventory,
Thanks for keeping us up to date with the numbers – much appreciated. I think there’s a good chance of another 5% down by Sep 30 then another 5% by the end of the year for 15% total off the peak.
If the stock market gets a bit wobbly again it could go down faster as buyers lose confidence.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
I stick by my prediction of double digit MoI by September 30th. Sales of around 1850; inventory of around 18,500. Lots of stuff taken off the market this summer will be relisted in the Fall.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:38 pm
Here is August numbers that ‘inventory’ previously posted. sales and sell/list:
1994 = 2159 = 44%
1995 = 2326 = 47%
1996 = 2141 = 48%
1997 = 2096 = 55%
1998 = 1589 = 49%
1999 = 2002 = 59%
2000 = 1805 = 51%
2001 = 2659 = 77%
2002 = 2558 = 73%
2003 = 3413 = 88%
2004 = 2570 = 61%
2005 = 3800 = 82%
2006 = 3092 = 65%
2007 = 3493 = 75%
2008 = 1611 = 35%
2009 = 3496 = 74%
note that 2008′s drop from July to August was HUGE. Sales would have to drop by 30% m-o-m for 2010 to keep track with 2008.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
Last night came home by cab from YVR. Had to endure cabbie (of some sort of mid-east persiuasion) telling me all about how “real estate only goes up”. Only in Vancouver this conversation would occur in a cab! LOL. I was too tired to reply with much more than “no it doesn’t”. Of course he thought I was an idiot. And of course he is a cabbie and I work in finance. What is the saying?…when cabbies start talking the asset….then get the hell out of that asset! Reminded me of the tech bubble days when shoe salesmen were telling me how they were making it big…
July 30th, 2010 at 8:29 pm
Here is the final tally from paulb’s numbers for July.
item sales listings sell/list
days elapsed 21 21
average 109 194
days left 0 0
projection 2292 4068 56.3%
Here is the history:
July
1995 = 1978 = 42%
1996 = 2100 = 39%
1997 = 2303 = 46%
1998 = 1816 = 44%
1999 = 2181 = 58%
2000 = 1710 = 48%
2001 = 2737 = 73%
2002 = 2759 = 67%
2003 = 4140 = 88%
2004 = 3114 = 62%
2005 = 3825 = 88%
2006 = 2802 = 61%
2007 = 3955 = 76%
2008 = 2215 = 34%
2009 = 4197 = 80%
Note that Paulb’s numbers (and inventory’s) are for all sales, including raw land and multi. The end of the month REBGV numbers are just att/det/apt. So, there is a small difference there.
Also, paulb’s numbers are not official; some occasionally slip in after he posts.
Anyway. Looks like 2010 was just barely better than 2008 for July.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
@bearshit:
AIC cannot be beat. Friend or foe.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:24 pm
@Best place on meth: Meth, you find the best ads!
July 30th, 2010 at 8:22 pm
@metalhead: That’s a good one. Thanks for the laugh.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
@paulb.:
No problem.
I’ll just pick one up on my way to the open house.
July 30th, 2010 at 8:14 pm
@Best place on meth:
You have to be shi)ting me. LOL! Tabby or else!
July 30th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
Last week it was “must be ok with bees”.
This week….
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....17473.html
July 30th, 2010 at 7:22 pm
Bear who care about real estate right now? Listen to some Alice in Chain and have beer on deck bear. Try “nutshell” unplugged and be sad little bear.
July 30th, 2010 at 6:46 pm
Best place on meth, have you ever tried doing stand up comedy?
No Joke, please submit a tape to “The Last Comic Standing.” Your entire routine could be about Real Estate…the comedy is never ending.
A Cameron Muir ventriloquist act would be gold…complete with a crantini in one hand and a magic 8 ball in the other.
July 30th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
@paulb.: ahhhhhh yes, back to normal!
July 30th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
@Best place on meth:
The level of B.S in the real estate industry is mind blowing.
Bill Good 30 seconds ago: “sales are expected to fall this year, but uh, rebound next year, yeah. Oh and prices are expected to be down a little” but we won’t tell you how much. What a relief!! Let’s grab that crack shack for a cool 2 mill.
We need “ass&ole of the year” awards or something. Black suit and tie, swag and all.
July 30th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
This just in:
Early this evening, after several seconds of deep thought and stroking his mangina, Cameron Muir has issued a prediction that average prices across B.C. will be $489,718.94 next Thursday.
The Sun has a reporter standing by to bring you more shortly.
July 30th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
It’s different in Vancouver: You can barely buy a POS in Vancouver……
Million Dollar Homes Across America 2010
How much can $1 million buy you in today’s real estate market? The answer, of course, varies depending on where you’re looking to buy.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-.....estate-buy
July 30th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
@raggedyrenter:
raggedyrenter Says:
July 30th, 2010 at 7:43 am
Hello, renters, look at your place, now back to my place, now back at your place, now back to my place. Sadly, your place isn’t my place, but if you stop paying rent and buy a house, your place could be like mine. Look down, back up, where are you? You’re on a building with a condo you could own. What’s in your hard, back at me, I have it, it’s an oyster with two presale contracts to that thing you love. Look again, the contracts are now diamonds. Anything s possible when you buy a place and not renting. I’m on a high horse.
+++++++++++++
This may help;
http://www.vancouveraa.ca/inde.....;Itemid=37
July 30th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Tinfoil hat time! This one’s for realpaul.
Vancouver developer cartel exposed.
PS realpaul, I give you a hard time but it’s all in good fun. Feel free to go nutz on this one. (HT tabin on RET)
July 30th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
New Listings 133
Price Changes 91
Sold Listings 75
July 30th, 2010 at 5:14 pm
@patriotz:
“Two, F/F only purchased or guaranteed the best quality mortgages – that’s why they were called “prime”.
Don’t know where you got this idea. Here’s MarketWatch in 2006:
“Fannie and Freddie bought 25.2% of the record $272.81 billion in subprime MBS sold in the first half of 2006, according to Inside Mortgage Finance Publications, a Bethesda, Md.-based publisher that covers the home loan industry. In 2005, Fannie and Freddie purchased 35.3% of all subprime MBS, the publication estimated. The year before, the two purchased almost 44% of all subprime MBS sold.”
Eventually, F/F held or backed 59% of subprime and Alt-A mortgage debt in the United States.
“The prospectus for every security issued by F/F explicitly said “not guaranteed by the US government”. So who moved in and guaranteed F/F debt in 2008 instead of letting the bondholders take their lumps, as should have happened?”
The government did because while the guarantee wasn’t explicit, F/F were created, monitored and staffed by current and former members of Congress and the White House. That’s why they’re called Government-Sponsored Enterprises and everyone knew they would be bailed out.
Possibly to the tune of $1 trillion.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
#61 A …got it, thx. Glad you recognize the issue.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
@Vanrod: Greater than 8 MOI. You bulls can have your party; it might be your last for awhile.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:37 pm
@Vanrod:
Not as much fun when there’s a raging MOI party next door.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
More
New Listings 122
Price Changes 84
Sold Listings 61
July 30th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
Conman Muir is very impressive.
He can spout that shit to a Canwest reporter with a straight face.
He knows if he even smirks once they will both burst out laughing.
July 30th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
Are any of my bullish friends interested for a “total inventory UNDER 17K party”? i’ll bring the hookers and blow!
July 30th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
New Listings 109
Price Changes 77
Sold Listings 50
Think that’s about all.
17,753
July 30th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
@Jonathon:
So Cameron Muir predicts prices at year end to be exactly $492,880 and prices at the end of 2011 to be exactly $489,454.
A decrease of 0.69%
Douche.
July 30th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
@realpaul:
actually, i posted the G&M article in support of your posts from yesterday (and becasue the article came out just a day later). in my view, 8th worst in north america clearly shows there is a huge problem in vancouver with bedbugs contrary to some of the posters who said otherwise.
July 30th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
@CashedOut: Until Dave pulls his head out his ass he’s not going to understand a word you say, kind of like reasoning with a mentally disabled monkey or a realtor.
July 30th, 2010 at 2:40 pm
B.C.’s real estate slowdown more pronounced than expected
‘We’ve seen consumer demand has tailed off in the summer months,’ says BCREA’s Cameron Muir
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....z0vCisfx3K
July 30th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
#46 A, hey I just report the news, unlike the local rags. What I got out of that article was
a) I was right and ahead of the news cycle
b) Vancouver has its head up its ass and is neither officially reporting, observing or reacting to the problem which is making it much worse. The fact is that Vancouver is number one with bedbugs, the reason the survey rated number eight was exactly because the government will not agree to tackle the problem and will not report the real number of cases.
It took an American network (NBC I think) to crack the glass and report that Olympic vistors from the US had reported huge infestation problems in all Vancouver hotels. Since then the Vanc bedbug storey is ubiquitous everywhere except in the local media. So….Vancouver is number one in underreprting and having its head up its ass.
For all the jackasses who hate me for being ahead on these stories and making them public before the MSM I say…..don’t hate bitch, I’m just the messenger. If it was up to me I’d have the city fess up to the infestations of rats roaches and bedbugs etc and set up a public awareness campaign to clean up. The shitty hall seems to think that this would be bad for tourism or some such shit, when in fact it would be just the opposite. The rat roach and bedbug problem here deters more people from visiting that it attracts. These dipshits in the Vision Council have obviously never taken a Six Sigma track to develop excellence long term.
If we could guarantee visitors that there wasn’t massive amounts of fecal matter in the water and on the sand, no bedbug, raoch and rat infestations ( c’mon guys these issues are a big internationally as Stanley Park) then people would flock here for the pristine enviornment at any cost. What we have though is a dipshit leadership that will not not recognize the facts for what they are and as a consequence we see reduced numbers of tourists and a black eye thats turning into a cancerous lesion ( just like the majority of the sea life in English Bay) that will be to everyones detriment long term.
And BTW, there is still a lot of talk about Vanshithole being a ‘destination’ for Asian wealth…..we get the smegma off the Chinese cock when it comes to foriegn investment…the real destination for Chinese money has been Switzerland.
July 30th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
@CashedOut:
It’s not worth arguing with Dave. He’ll fight a losing battle until he’s completely discredited and then he’ll fight the exact same battle a week or two later. It doesn’t matter what proof you show him he will never budge. When prices are half what they are now he’ll find some bizarre reason to claim he’s still right.
Even though his predictions are 0 for 5 he’s still convinced his model of economics (which is called Voodoo economics by serious economists) is right.
July 30th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
@Dave: Seriously Dave? Stock prices are based on what people are willing to pay. Psychology, Market Sentiment. I suppose you believe in “sideline cash” as well.
July 30th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
July 2007-2010 Sales:
Area,2007,2008,2009,2010
VVWFN,43,18,43,26
VVWDT,163,77,203,68
Total,206,95,246,94
I don’t know if I did the search correctly, but if the error should be consistent from year-to-year.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:59 pm
@patriotz:
Based on your logic, stock prices would never change.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
@exx:
Scenario 1: They don’t sell and don’t buy. FTB buys another property.
Scenario 2: They sell to FTB. They buy another property.
Scenario 3: They sell to someone who has sold their own property. Rinse and repeat.
Simple.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
@domus:
Not really. One, F/F have been around for generations. Financial deregulation hasn’t. Two, F/F only purchased or guaranteed the best quality mortgages – that’s why they were called “prime”. Subprime and Alt-A mortgages were securitized by the mortgage lenders. Still, prices became so inflated that the “prime” mortgages held by F/F were enough to bring them down.
The prospectus for every security issued by F/F explicitly said “not guaranteed by the US government”. So who moved in and guaranteed F/F debt in 2008 instead of letting the bondholders take their lumps, as should have happened?
Hank Paulson.
July 30th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
@ specuskeptic
Love this quote from the G&M article: “The jump in national sales activity earlier this year likely borrowed from the future,” CREA president George Pahud said.”
Uttered for an article essentially about CREA’s inability to predict future demand. Priceless.