242 Responses to “Friday free-for-all!”
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August 2nd, 2010 at 11:00 am
@Anonymous: Along those lines…caught a tv show this morning called “Real Estate Intervention”. LOL. Guess “Flip this House” ain’t so popular anymore. Gist of the show is homeowners overprice homes and a real estate “consultant” breaks the news that they need to lower their price, shows them comps to prove that etc…
Same idea. Owners are resistant to lower to less than they invested themselves as “that is the minimum of what the house is worth”. Otherwise they prefer to rent their house out…to wait for the market to come back to normal. It still has not sunk in that those bubble years were NOT normal…
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:38 am
sensibleone, the reason some schools have better results is entirely about self selection by the parents. Parents with the means and inclination will make sure their children go to a “good school” and will also provide other resources that will ensure the child’s success. These schools end up being in wealthy neighbourhoods for what should be obvious reasons. Students go to good schools because they are advantaged, not the other way around.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:22 am
Funny how much denial there is around the defense of the teachers unions. Is this a product of the constant barrage of propaganda from the BCTF over the years? The fact is ( and I posted the link) that some schools produce high numbers of grads with university entrance marks while others are not…Surrey for example produces less than 2%….how can you explain that through any of the excuse given by random posters. The stats show that it is always the school and nothing to do with ‘life changing trips’ and such nonsense.
Children are all abnout their enviornment, the peer group directs the focus of the herd…without a vision of excellence instilled among the general population the direction of the student body is dicedley up or down…there doesn’t seem to be any middle ground. The BCTF has zero tolerance for excellance, I don’t think any of you has any experiance with the school system as it has been for the past twenty years. The new politically charged reality of the teachers unions is nothing like the small town where you grew up with convicts and happened to make it out. Examine the circumstances which drive the individual and you will find the profile of the society. It ain’t your granpa’s education system anymore. Most are you sound attached to an emotional memory of your past it sounds like and your in denial when the facts are staring you right in the face. Why not try and beat the odds and get your kids into a decent school….statistically you’re thousands of percent more like ly to see your child succeed if you get your kid into a school where the emphasis is on excellance other than the BCTF’s vision of the working mans paradise.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:21 am
patriotz, would you like me to edit the data series in that graph to make it easier for you to see home prices were flat of slightly falling over Clinton’s first term? Do I need to point out it takes time for markets to reflect policy changes? I mistook you for someone who wanted to engage in a real discussion of the root causes of the bubble, my mistake.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:19 am
@Anonymous:
“If it doesn’t sell we’ll just rent it out, we’re not going to sell it for less than it’s worth”
That’s exactly what I love to hear.
I want all of these greedy c*******ers to wake up one morning, realize that they’ve lost another 20% because they held out for “what it’s worth” while the much smarter, non-douchebag sellers took the market price and ran.
Then I want them to curl up into a fetal position and cry for days on end
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:12 am
patriotz says:
Education is not manufacturing. The outcome is up to the student. Surprising how many people think otherwise.
———————————–
Many people believe if they send their kids to the “best schools”, their kids will become rocket scientists. The real real estate industry capitalizes on this type of thinking. Just read how many houses for sale has the description with “house in ______ school catchment” or “close to the best schools”.
Imagine if the parents of every C- students buy a house in the #1 ranked public school catchment, I can say with great certainty that school will lose its #1 ranking in a few short years. C- students don’t become A students just by going to a top school.
At the same time, the schools that had these C- students will see their rankings go up because they are not pulled down by the marks of the C- students.
There are 8 west side public schools in Vancouver district(VSB). According to the ranks from the link provided by sensibleone #180, all 8 of these schools’ ranking dropped in the current year (2008-2009)compared to their most recent 5 years. Notice that Eric Hamber is ranked BELOW east side’s David Thompson in 2008-2009 when Hamber was above Thompson by 36 spots in the most recent 5 years. Also Kitilano (which dropped 45 spots from most recent 5 years) ranked just above David Thompson by only 5 spots.
I acknowledge the 2008-2009 Vancouver data may be an abnormality, but if this trend holds up, house in these “best schools” catchments may need some other selling features such as “they’re not making any more land in the west side”.
August 2nd, 2010 at 10:06 am
@McLovin:
Overheard a conversation at the grocery store:
“We put our Tsawassen property up for sale but the market is really slow and we haven’t gotten any offers”
“What are you going to do?”
“If it doesn’t sell we’ll just rent it out, we’re not going to sell it for less than it’s worth”
The perception that home prices are still worth all time highs is still out there. It’s going to take some frightening headlines to change that in the general population. There are many excuses right now that can be used: HST, summer/seasonal slowdown, demand was pulled forward to take advantage of low rates… It will be harder to hide from lower sales, higher listings and falling prices by October/November. That would make a trend that would be hard for the general public not to notice.
If you didn’t have time to watch the TED video in “Primate economics. Helps explain bubbles and dumb decisions people make with $$$”, the punchline is very interesting. Basically, if a person’s home was once worth $1 million and they have a choice of either:
1) selling it now for $950,000 or
2) taking a chance that by waiting a month it will either rise again to $1 million or fall even further to $900,000
they will take the risk that waiting another month will avoid the loss (even though it exposes them to further losses). That sums up exactly what I’m seeing now, the general population still thinks that waiting it out will bring a return to record highs. Hence the number of expiries and moderate price declines.
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:45 am
This blogger threw in the towel and shut down his blog and bought one year ago in Victoria. I wonder how much he’s down?
http://www.victoriastruth.blogspot.com/
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:41 am
Any views from the trenches this wonderful weekend?
My two cents is that some people are starting to hear that things are slowing down. It seems a few people I have spoken to have a story of someone who has not had a showing in a month in Surrey or knows someone who is stuck with a condo in Kelowna. It appears to even the uninformed that the market is cooling. Will this have an effect on people or will they jump in thinking 8% off is an “amazing” deal?
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:35 am
#180…..school stats compiled by the Fraser Institute?? Gaacckk!
Fraser Institute…home of those noted economic geniuses Preston Manning, Neils Veldhuis and Mike Harris.
Washed-up neocon hack and ex-Ontario Premier Harris just recommended that his buddy Frank Stronach receive a 1 billion dollar payout to convert his “voting shares” into ordinary shares….shares that represent less than one percent of Magna International equity but will give Frank an 1800% premium compared to the average 30% conversion premium in other deals.
Well, after all, I guess it’s only fair…. didn’t Frank put Harris on the Magna Board…..?
August 2nd, 2010 at 9:34 am
@Regular Poster of VCI:
Developers are always concerned about getting their product mix and prices right. You don’t need to start a letter writing campaign to get that point across. They know this all too well.
August 2nd, 2010 at 4:06 am
@jesse:
I went to school in a small town and the kids in my classes wound up becoming everything from convicts to university professors.
Education is not manufacturing. The outcome is up to the student. Surprising how many people think otherwise.
August 1st, 2010 at 10:14 pm
another US recession to kick-off the upcoming housing correction?
http://dshort.com/articles/ECR.....Index.html
August 1st, 2010 at 10:10 pm
Vancouver beaches are really dirty, good to clean this up. Tons of garbage and McDonalds packages just left behind on Kits beach. The City Beach patrols that can ticket people for leaving garbage behnind.
August 1st, 2010 at 10:04 pm
Bear now that Vancouver city hall on bed bug patrol Vancouver real estate market about to take off like wildfire bomber plane. Rich asian waiting on sideline for bed bug destruction program to be finished before buying like crazy again. Once bed bug gone you bear lose again.
August 1st, 2010 at 9:47 pm
@sensibleone: “Don’t be misled by the Teachers federation, the school system in BC is decrepit, antiquated, union biased, paycheque centric….not the best enviornment for education.”
Save the rhetoric. It’s not much different anywhere else from what I’ve seen. Having gone to an “average” school, there were still enough top-notch kids who studied and socialized together to garner amongst them excellent enrollment yields into universities. In the latter years of high school, the courses and extra-curriculars were built to self-select based on university-track or non-university track. Competition was pretty fierce and there were lots of events with other schools. I’d be surprised if this group did any worse than the prep schools, after accounting for financial head starts.
August 1st, 2010 at 9:45 pm
#172 Oka: We moved back to Canada from Oregon 4 years ago. Visited 3 high schools (our son was entering grade 11). Selected Point Grey Secondary, and chose to rent in Kerrisdale so he could walk to school. I’ve heard Magee is pretty good for middle school, which is very close to Pt. Grey. We were very pleased with the results, as was our son, now at UBC. Involved parents, lots of activities, good stats on % students going on to universities across Canada. Largely a fairly wealthy area, very diverse (Anglo-Asian), good walking district and mass transit, good community centre with pool, lots of multi-family rental housing. 2 bd, 2 bath in nice building runs from $1700/mo. and up. No point buying right now–try out the neighbourhood and await a much better-priced 2011-2012 and beyond. Best of luck!
August 1st, 2010 at 9:36 pm
@sensibleone: “Once you get your child in a bad highschool it will be hard to get them on track.”
Well is the school’s performance because of the school or because of the children’s background? If you want a good catchment, be prepared to pay for it.
Many schools have extremely high university enrollment after graduation but look at the parents for part of the reason why. Moving to an “average” school catchment but being able to afford sending your kids on life-changing summer trips and enrolling them in top-notch extra-curricular programs may actually yield similar or better results than having to scrimp and save to afford a Marpole teardown in the Churchill catchment.
Better yet, if you want Churchill AND the trips and extras to boot, rent.
August 1st, 2010 at 9:23 pm
Daaaannng…..the school I went to is near the bottom of the list….things must have gone downhill after I left
August 1st, 2010 at 9:22 pm
@crashcow:
Oh, hang on. This just in: (holding hand to imaginary earpiece like oneangryslav pretending to be Jon Stewart)
Cameron Muir’s magic penis has just determined that the stats will be out at exactly 1:43 pm on Tuesday.
The fabled willy also expects benchmark prices to be down 1.7% overall.
August 1st, 2010 at 9:11 pm
#172 Oka, It is highly recommended that you choose your neighbourhood according to the cachements school performance. Otherwise you could end up in a sub par performing school that would guarantee your childs failure to gain matriculation into University. Many schools in Vancouver ( BC generally) has extremely poor performance grades and the number of kids who graduate with University Entrance marks is dismal in those areas.
There is a book available through Richmond Chapters called ‘University Entrance Secrets – Why Being Smart is Not Enough’ that details how to access the best quality information to ensure your child has a shot at higher education in Canada. Don’t be misled by the Teachers federation, the school system in BC is decrepit, antiquated, union biased, paycheque centric….not the best enviornment for education.
Heres where to start finding out which neighborhoods not to locate in. Once you get your child in a bad highschool it will be hard to get them on track.
http://britishcolumbia.compare.....yArea.aspx
August 1st, 2010 at 9:01 pm
@crashcow:
Only Cameron Muir knows for sure. He knows all.
But seriously, the stats should be out Tuesday.
August 1st, 2010 at 8:39 pm
jesse #177 wrote:
“In fact CMHC should be doing this as we speak. Play dirty. Play hard. It’s our money”
Yes, they should check the original loan applications and see there were any “untruths” such as their income, source of their downpayment, etc….and if so, tell the banks those loans an are not backed by CMHC.
August 1st, 2010 at 8:31 pm
@patriotz: “Whatever it does, the government cannot back out of CMHC’s existing obligations
There are subtle tricks that can be done to prolong or at least lessen the impact to the books, including tying up payments in the courts on technicalities and reading the MI contracts to a tee, uncovering any loopholes or gray areas to void a contract. In fact CMHC should be doing this as we speak. Play dirty. Play hard. It’s our money.
August 1st, 2010 at 8:26 pm
@Okayama: You can find places in the The West End (not the west side) with reasonable rents and send the kid to King George Secondary.
August 1st, 2010 at 8:24 pm
Way off topic, but Whistler (Olympic venue host) is marketing to Brazil…
Tourism Whistler looks beyond North America to attract visitors
Reaching as far as Latin America and Asia
http://www.news1130.com/news/l.....t-visitors
August 1st, 2010 at 8:17 pm
@Okayama:
I can help with wife and her confidence about living in Canada. Just drop me a line and we’ll get it all sorted out.
August 1st, 2010 at 7:20 pm
Does anyone know what day next week the rebgv stats package will be released? Thx
August 1st, 2010 at 6:29 pm
Hi, we’ve been living in Japan for the past 11 years, and if I can pay off some debts soon, am hoping to move to Vancouver in time for my son to start junior high school in Vancouver (he’s currently in grade 5). I am Canadian, and my wife’s Japanese. If I’m not able to pay off the debts soon, I’m hoping to send my wife and son there so my son can learn English and experience Canadian culture.
I’m looking for a safe neighborhood, reasonable living costs including reasonable apartments, and a decent junior high school. Recommendations would be of great help, especially since my Japanese wife isn’t confident about living in Canada without me there.
August 1st, 2010 at 5:18 pm
@domus:
Whatever it does, the government cannot back out of CMHC’s existing obligations. Whatever juggling is performed with the assets cannot change this. That’s my whole point really.
I would like to see CMHC stop issuing mortgage insurance tomorrow and be wound down. That has about as much chance of happening as Stephen Harper understanding selection bias.
With regard to F/F, their bondholders were certainly betting on a government bailout which they had no right to receive, and they got it. Those are the facts. And you can argue the “could haves” and “should haves” forever.
August 1st, 2010 at 4:54 pm
@patriotz:
Patriotz, you don’t seem to be willing to listen to what I am telling you.
I will say it one more time: I am aware of the status of the CMHC. The government can: (1) pull the plug on a crown corporation by selling its assets; (2) sell the whole corporation to a third private party or (3) sizeably reduce its operating budget, while keeping it as a crown corporation.
What I am telling you, if you are willing to listen (are you?), is that none of these options is on the table. The plan seems to be straight sailing.
One more thing: the US F/F were private institutions, but it was clear that they were being implicitly living in the shadow of the taxpayers’ guarantee. In Canada, things are not that different: the link to the private markets are the banks, which extract large royalties from the CMHC guarantee.
Different systems, same substance.
August 1st, 2010 at 4:51 pm
@fixie guy:
That graph of yours starts during the Reagan administration. Should we assume the bubble was really Reagan’s fault? I’m not claiming that Clinton can’t be held accountable for the housing price rise during his own administration – which was not unique in historical terms. Take a look at the big picture. When do things really get out of hand?
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepa.....raph2.html
I’m claiming that Bush must be held accountable for the massive and completely unprecedented national housing bubble that happened during his own administration and which he personally promoted. Claiming that “the bubble was already under way” or was enabled by prior policies is no excuse. Bush had no qualms about throwing out out any of his predecessors’ policies when he felt like it. The very idea that Clinton had created some sort of unstoppable trend is absurd.
“The buck stops here”.
August 1st, 2010 at 4:38 pm
UNESCO adds 5 more sites to its World Heritage List.
Sadly, the Woodward’s building was not one of them.
http://www.redorbit.com/news/s.....=r_science
“The Best Place on Earth”™ continues to be shut out.
August 1st, 2010 at 3:58 pm
No shock, data showing the US housing bubble was well underway during the Clinton administration was modded down. Here’s the Composite 10 index of the same data, once again showing a rise of over 60% before Bush made the policy changes patriotz claims were responsible. Of course, Bush took it to the next stage but any claim of discontinuity between regimes is fantasy.
http://img688.imageshack.us/im.....102010.gif
August 1st, 2010 at 2:31 pm
@domus:
CMHC has to be supported. It’s a Crown Agency. Every obligation of CMHC is expressly guaranteed by the federal government just as much as a CSB is.
F/F were (and still are) investor-owned private sector companies, and the USG had no obligation or any valid reason (IMHO) to bail them out. That’s my point.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FNMA.OB
The true counterpart to CMHC in the US is FHA, not F/F. Too many people are mistaken about this.
August 1st, 2010 at 2:20 pm
@patriotz:
Patriotz wrote: F/F should have gone bankrupt. Period.
I completely agree. That’s not the point. I am telling you, they won’t let them go belly up. And in Canada, the CMHC will be supported in every possible way. Unless there is a serious information campaign letting people know about this massive scam.
August 1st, 2010 at 2:10 pm
@Disbelief
I don’t think Jeff is far off.
Prices are in fact up around somewhere that much.
No denying Van. was very bullish for a few months this spring.
All the knife catchers were out bidding up crap with the free money available.
Doesn’t mean that is the trend now or it will stay that way.
Sales are way off but it will take a bit longer to see a big change down in prices.
The sheeps psychology has to turn a bit first.
This is only the start.
August 1st, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Anonymous says:
August 1, 2010 at 20:44
Vanpro, the trick here is how to answer your question without sounding like a Rennie shill, and to say nothing while trying to sound as he actually knows something.
He is crafty, one of the best I have seen.
He will likely respond with…..
I’m glad you asked that question
I hear you
we agree on more than we disagree
there was a misunderstanding
He will also IMPLY, but will stay away from outright stating……..
Rich Asians, pot growers, Vancouver is different, the local incomes don’t matter, everyone wants to live here, shortage of land, no crime, rich people will send their kids here-no gangs, RE always goes up, this is the best place on earth.
Remember, you are not his target customer. The target customer is anyone who has already bought the above, nonsense.
August 1st, 2010 at 1:41 pm
Jeff the realtor you been up all night doin blow with Ian Watt or what. RE up 20% over last year like to see some proof of that statement out of Jeff’s ass. I am in Seattle right now and things are down and desperate with regards to RE. Like people in Vancouver should know if you want to sell right now you need to lower your price. Real Estate is no longer the get rich quick scheme it once was.
August 1st, 2010 at 1:34 pm
@Regular Poster of VCI: A good old letter writing campaign elicits memories from my stint in the DBE.
Good luck boys!
August 1st, 2010 at 1:30 pm
Unit sales July
2009 = 2010 = %change = area
5 = 4 = -20% Bowen Island
57 = 20 = -64% Burnaby East
215 = 112 = -47% Burnaby North
257 = 123 = -52% Burnaby South
304 = 166 = -45% Coquitlam
12 = 3 = -75% Islands-Van. & Gulf
79 = 18 = -77% Ladner
215 = 136 = -36% Maple Ridge
170 = 80 = -52% New Westminster
273 = 158 = -42% North Vancouver
41 = 22 = -46% Pitt Meadows
152 = 75 = -50% Port Coquitlam
119 = 62 = -47% Port Moody
632 = 292 = -53% Richmond
31 = 30 = -3% Squamish
95 = 55 = -42% Sunshine Coast
55 = 24 = -56% Tsawwassen
461 = 267 = -42% Vancouver East
880 = 553 = -37% Vancouver West
97 = 77 = -20% West Vancouver
35 = 19 = -45% Whistler
August 1st, 2010 at 1:09 pm
That should read ‘complete lack of hygiene’….sorry
August 1st, 2010 at 1:07 pm
#154 M, didn’t say Vanc was alone with the bedbug issue. I said Vanc was the most closeted on the issue and there are a greater number of buildings infested and a higher concentration of buildings infested in Vancouver than anywhere else. The article from Yahoo from NYC says a lot for that city which is coming to grips with the issue and doing something about it…Vancshitter….nothing. Typical ‘heads up their ass’ style of existence. Given the lack of effort to contain the infestation , the denial of its existence, and the concentration, transience and complete of hygiene in Vancouver we can conclude that Vancouver is number one in infestation, filth and denial.
August 1st, 2010 at 11:51 am
what smackdown, prices remain up 20% over last year?
August 1st, 2010 at 10:28 am
We can sit and talk about the price declines…
Or we can sit and talk about the declines AND actively participate in them.
Here’s the idea. —–(I’ve already done it, and gotten some interesting replies back)—–
1) Find developments that are overpriced for this environment.
2) Send emails to the agent, the sales team, and the marketing manager of the developer explaining that as a consumer you believe that the price is simply too high.
3) These emails MUST not be venting sessions, but include reason, analysis, comparables, etc.
4) Clearly communicate that incentives (free strata, HST, car etc) means nothing…You just want lower prices.
5) Remember what you are after, not to put them into their place, but to get price changes.
…You will be suprised how much sway a thoughtful and reasoned consumer objection can have in a board room. Companies pay big $ for focus groups. They desperately want to hear from consumers.
right NOW is the time, they have seen (first hand) the drop off in the post July 1 new housing market. No doubt they will be meeting this month to discuss marketing strategy for the fall market. It is my hope that with our encouragement, and at our suggestion, they will use “price” more than place, product, or promotion as their key strategy.
Let’s all try to send at least 3-5 of these emails a day until fall.
Let’s all go out there and make a difference.
August 1st, 2010 at 10:26 am
@McLovin:
The ultimate in brainless pandering from a pre-programmed politician:
“We want to send a message to bedbugs,” City Council Speaker Christine Quinn said, announcing the measure Wednesday: “Drop dead. Your days are over.”
What a douche.
August 1st, 2010 at 10:16 am
Relax Realpaul! Vancouver’s not the only place with bed bugs.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp.....ty_bedbugs
August 1st, 2010 at 9:40 am
Spam filter seems to be blocking the link to Larry’s July numbers (won’t let me post it). Anyway, they are out now, go check it out on yattermatters. It should be fun to read the official July REBGV report this week!
August 1st, 2010 at 9:12 am
@Meat Robot:
Keep in mind that all of those New York apartments have brutal maintenance fees, $750 a month was mentioned as the low end of the bunch.
Also, some of them may be leasehold.
Looks like Vancouver condos finally got the smackdown that was due to them.
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
August 1st, 2010 at 9:05 am
Great, another nutter. patriotz you’re clever enough to abuse the moderation system yet can’t graph the Case Shiller?
http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/6411/uscs2010.gif
Tell me when home prices started their ascent in the US.