Hollywood North vs. Beverly Hills
Here’s an interesting comparison that came up in in the discussion earlier comparing a couple of North American property markets. First off space889 pointed out this nice large lot on the west side of Vancouver that is up for sale asking $3,280,000 – the oil tank has been removed and this property could be used to build your dream home near Oak street, or you could just hold onto it and wait for it to appreciate.
Crabman then pointed out this property in a place called Beverly Hills on a slightly larger lot asking $3,200,000.
Here they are side by side for comparison:
July 28th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
If you look closely in the window of the Beverly Hills unit, you can see Tom Vu.
July 28th, 2010 at 8:14 pm
The house on Laurier Ave. is assessed at $2.1m last year, hard to believe.
July 28th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
Crabman and Re Esteven have lost more than 45% value of their properties THERE.Now they are screaming and requesting Vancouverites to go UNDERWATER.The final episode of r.e. rollecoaster of California,They want to prove that R.E. in usa goes down and it hurts family with foreclosures.
Ha ha ha,serious ending.
I recomend to buy in Vancouver to keep your jobs and the value of your properties.
July 28th, 2010 at 8:24 pm
I can just hear Michael Campbell (or Levy-take your pick) spinning this one on Global News…
(With furrowed brow and pursed lips) “Well, Deb. As you know, there are different valuations depending upon where real estate is located. You know what they say, ‘Location, location, locatiom’. Properties with these particular qualities rarely become available in a place like West Vancouver. It’s all about the metrics of suppply and demand.
No sir, I can”t see this changing anytime soon.The provincial economy is solidly on track, and we have weathered the recession better than any jurisdiction in North America and in actual fact, the world, if the truth be known”.
Shithead.
July 28th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
What the hell is wrong with you people?
‘Hot Asian Money’ is going to snap all of this up. If you saps won’t take advantage of these buying opportunities, wealthy Asians will. The house on the left is far more desirable for wealthy Chinese looking for luxury properties than some dump like that in Beverly Hills.
Isn’t it self-evident?
July 28th, 2010 at 8:35 pm
I’m moving from Vancouver to California!
Can’t stand being around nincompoops that are happy to pay 3.2m for a 50 year old shit-box… Maybe there’s a sand box in the back yard instead of a pool.
July 28th, 2010 at 8:43 pm
So what are the property taxes on these places?
July 28th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
How much are the property taxes?
July 28th, 2010 at 8:51 pm
I would imagine the Beverly Hills home hasn’t had the underground oil tank removed, add $1 Mil to actual cost of home, also add a mil for transportation to the grocery stores which are very few and far between in BH.
While we’re at it let’s add a mil because you won’t get to live in a world class city where the residents piss all over the place after the local fireworks show:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....vancouver/
So the actual cost of the California mansion is around 6.3 million.
July 28th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
This would be a lot more fun if we had some transparency like our US neighbours, then we’d be able to see how much the owners of the crack shack have racked up in HELOC’s. Maybe that’s the motivation for the wishing price.
July 28th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
I’d guess the property tax for the Vancouver home assessed at $2m to be around $7-9k?
July 28th, 2010 at 9:02 pm
This is even better than “Crackshack or Mansion” in illustrating how laughable the Vancouver RE market is.
In Vancouver’s defense, even the Vancouver property’s realtor must know there is just no way this will sell for 3.2m, even with the lot size.
The question I have is will this comparison go viral like “Crackshack or Mansion”?
July 28th, 2010 at 9:11 pm
This just goes to show you how monetary policy can distort markets beyond recognition. Imagine this: A brain drain from Canada to the U.S. because of this stupidity. If I was a professional, I’d be packing my suitcases now. The U.S. markets are approaching something closer to reality.
July 28th, 2010 at 9:14 pm
Dear Lord,
I know that I don’t talk to you that much, but this past year you have
taken away my favourite actor, Patrick Swayze, my favourite actress,
Farrah Fawcett and my favorite musician, Michael Jackson.
I just wanted to let you know that my favourite premier is Gordon Campbell.
Amen
July 28th, 2010 at 9:16 pm
@Anonymous: You don’t have to imagine it’s been going on for years. Not many Uni grads sticking around Vancouver to schlepp condos, concrete or coffee.
July 28th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
For that price I can get 3 of these in Hawaii.
http://honolulu.craigslist.org.....82921.html
Fuck you, Shaughnessy.
July 28th, 2010 at 9:25 pm
Or two and a half of these.
http://honolulu.craigslist.org.....70561.html
Suck it, Vancouver.
July 28th, 2010 at 9:31 pm
or one of this:
http://www.realtor.ca/Property.....=910868874
July 28th, 2010 at 9:41 pm
@happyday: 11 happyday Says:
July 28th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
I’d guess the property tax for the Vancouver home assessed at $2m to be around $7-9k?
****************
Why guess?
http://www.bcassessment.bc.ca/index.asp
Click on the top left “compare e value assessments.”
July 28th, 2010 at 9:45 pm
I provided a “guess” at property TAX, not VALUE (see 2.)
July 28th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
Speaking of the ‘high end’, here’s a look at Point Grey SFH Inventory:
http://wp.me/pcq1o-18b
MLS SFH Inventory, West Point Grey, on the 28th July for each of these years:
2006 – 27
2007 – 34 (est.)
2008 – 77
2009 – 39
2010 – 78
July 28th, 2010 at 10:20 pm
I would guestimate that US market is within 5 to 10 percent of it’s bottom. Might already be at bottom for some markets.
Whilst Vancouver market is at least 35% overvalued.
Debtors: may whatever god you believe in have mercy on you a$$
July 28th, 2010 at 11:24 pm
All my out of town friends ask me “when” the Vancouver bubble will pop…and having watched it go up and down then back up again over the past 2 years I gotta say that interest rates must be the driving force here. The rates here were probably set too low in Canada in relation to the US financial crisis.
The only other thing close to explaining the Vancouver premium has to be that we are a haven for offshore families. The US is not as their immigration system is different.
Is that “haven premium” enough to keep housing prices here on a Singapore type high with interest rates rising? Perhaps only time will tell. Personally, I assume with rates rising globally except in the US where RE is cheaper, the odds favour a noticeable correction locally.
July 28th, 2010 at 11:29 pm
@ Argentina Zero:
I swear that I read your post at least five times, and I still (for the life of me) haven’t a clue as to what you’re trying to say.
Well done.
July 28th, 2010 at 11:48 pm
@ Bilbo Bloggins
If the Case Shiller historical has anything to say about it, put the American market down for double that min. I think Vancouver is still owing on the early 90’s correction it dodged thanks to Hong Kong, so give me 50% min before it’s over.
July 29th, 2010 at 12:27 am
@fixie guy: At least…
July 29th, 2010 at 12:49 am
Interesting comparison, but it’s like comparing apples and oranges. When was the last time Beverly Hills made any sort of Top Ten list such as “best place to live”, “top 10 best beach city”, etc, etc. When was the last time anyone gave a shit about Beverly Hills?
For me it was back in ‘84 when Axel Foley took out that piece of trash Victor Maitland. Why would I want to live there now?
July 29th, 2010 at 4:53 am
@Tony Danza:
We have just as much transparency as they do:
https://www.bconline.gov.bc.ca/land_titles.html
It’s not free though.
Regarding the person who wants to know the property tax paid by the Shaughnessy “mansion”, all SFH in Vancouver pay the same tax rate. So check your neighbour or the city website for the rate, and multiply by the assessment. Easy.
July 29th, 2010 at 7:47 am
A landslide is ocurring in West Van.
Sure, it’s only a one-month comparison and the sample size is tiny, but the graph is beautiful nonetheless.
http://www.yattermatters.com/n.....more-19153
July 29th, 2010 at 8:06 am
@patriotz: Yes the property taxes and utility bills I can easily figure out for the Shaaaauuuughnessy mansion. I’m wondering how much the equivalents are in Beverly Hills. If they’re significantly more, that can explain at least part of the apparent incongruency.
July 29th, 2010 at 8:22 am
@Anonymous:
According to Zillow, the property paid $19K in taxes last year.
http://www.zillow.com/homedeta.....3681_zpid/
Note that California has a crazy property tax system where the tax basically depends on what you paid for the house. Thus two identical properties will pay different taxes depending on when they were bought. That makes comparisons to BC, where two identical properties always pay the same taxes, difficult.
But when comparing property taxes between different jurisdictions, you really should compare house to house, not price to price. In other words how much tax would a similar house pay in Vancouver?
July 29th, 2010 at 8:47 am
@specialfx3000:
That’s a 21% haircut on average sell price month over month. I wonder if that represents a drop in quality or an actual severe shift in prices (probably a combination of the two).
July 29th, 2010 at 9:10 am
From a Scotiabank press release about BC residents supposed financial rectitude… LOL… I guess this means 72% want to finance everything without saving a penny first…
——————————–
“Delaying a major purchase may be frustrating for some, but the research demonstrates that many B.C. residents understand the benefit of living within their means,” said Robyn Neff, Branch Manager Coquitlam Centre, Scotiabank. “This trend of putting off a major purchase is one that we are seeing right across the country and, on a positive note, Canadians have told us that they plan to make these purchases this year with money they have saved.”
In fact, before making a major purchase, 28 per cent of people in B.C. reported that they would most likely save up for the purchase or wait until they can pay for the whole thing at once.
July 29th, 2010 at 9:32 am
@Anonymous: Why not compare incomes and rents in Beverly Hills to same in Vancouver West? That will explain a lot more than property taxes.
July 29th, 2010 at 9:34 am
@specialfx3000: I spoke with a fairly well known Realtor in West Van yesterday. According to this person, in the past year, the vast majority of the buyers for her listed properties, were Chinese or foreign.
She estimated that 8 of 10 showings were to foreigners. Many barely even looked at the house and a few of the buyers planned on tearing down recently renovated homes, ripping out the trees and building a luxury home.
This jives with what I’ve heard in the Westside of Vancouver.
She completely agreed that local buyers are now priced out of Vancouver’s most desirable neighbourhoods. Only offshore money can afford today’s pricing. However, she does not see this as a problem – but compared it to London and New York, where foreign purchases represent a large % of Manhattan luxury condos.
In any event, she’s noticed a big slow down in all traffic, foreign and domestic, which she largely dismissed due to the summer season.
That said, I’ve talked recently with a number of money managers. They are telling me they’ve never experienced a quieter July in their lives. Absolutely nobody is putting money in the stock markets and volumes have fallen off a cliff.
Transactions of all varieties have stopped.
I get the sense that the next big leg down is underway…
July 29th, 2010 at 10:04 am
@Tony Danza: There is also a significant difference in terms of water, gas, and electricity, which are paid for by the tenant in Cali, I believe. I agree to use price-rent and price-income as gauges but without knowing the total ownership and occupancy costs it’s hard to directly compare.
As an extreme example someone was selling an estate in Scotland for the grand sum of 1 pound some years back. Only there were some catches.
July 29th, 2010 at 10:10 am
asking about property tax on a place in Shaughnessy (or BH, for that matter) is like the guy in the Porsche dealership asking what kind of gas mileage it gets – um, if you have to ask… you’re probably in the wrong car shop.
July 29th, 2010 at 10:14 am
Canada resale home price index up for 13th month
http://ca.reuters.com/article/.....D720100728
It might be the result of the rush before the expected interest rate hikes, and the HST, but when will this end?
July 29th, 2010 at 10:23 am
@Anonymous: “if you have to ask… you’re probably in the wrong car shop”
Drove a Porche 911 from Calgary to Vancouver. We got better mileage than a Toyota Camry.
Comparing total costs seems reasonable. If the taxes are higher the NOI decreases. I’d think the cap rate (NOI/price) between the two should be comparable if there were no speculation. On a cursory glance, the place in Beverly Hills looks like a better deal.
July 29th, 2010 at 10:26 am
I drive a Porsche 911. (note spelling, haha)
Gas mileage is not that much worse than my daughter’s Corolla, depending on how you drive it.
Re: Reuters article. That was for May.
When will it all end? How about now.
July 29th, 2010 at 10:39 am
@metalhead: the point was not whether a *Porsche* gets good or bad gas mileage.
July 29th, 2010 at 10:42 am
Of course, it couldn’t happen here.
Property prices fall to 2002 levels
July 29th, 2010 at 10:49 am
@Anonymous: “the point was not whether a *Porsche* gets good or bad gas mileage”
Really? The implication is that if you buy a property in an affluent area you immediately don’t care about taxes or how much it costs to operate. Knowing some people who live in that Vancouver neighbourhood, they happen to be intensely numbers focused and that involves obsessing over how much they have to pay for everything. It’s pretty much a disorder; this disorder happens to have made them immensely wealthy.
And yes it was a Porsche 911 Carrera Coupé. Mileage is good because it has a light body.
July 29th, 2010 at 10:49 am
I have been keeping an eye on RE in california, mainly san francisco and san diego as i like those cities and for what is worth, desirable properties havent come down in price as much as people seem to believe. Check trulia.com or redfin.com and you will see that prices are down maybe 10 to 15%. That is hardly a crash compared to 1005 and more price increases in the last 10 years. There has been crashes in areas like Phoenix but you really have to be motivated to go and live there. RE in california is not cheap in my opinion.
July 29th, 2010 at 10:51 am
Yeah, I was just bugging ya.
Hey, I did mention gas mileage.
I get about 26 mpg(US)hwy and 15 mpg(US)city for what it’s worth.
July 29th, 2010 at 11:05 am
It is my opinion that Vancouver is a highly desirable place to live. People find it highly desirable to locate in this location and more land is not being produced. Furthermore, the result is that real estate always goes up. The reasons being that Vancouver is highly desirable and production of land does not occur in the for-mentioned location.
Furthermore it is my educated opinion that the level of discourse on this internet forum is lacking in sophistication. I suggest that people seek the advice of someone who has graduated from one of the better local higher learning institutions. I am such a person and therefore I have an educated opinion.
July 29th, 2010 at 11:09 am
Well ain’t you jus speshul, bwahahaaa!
P.S. I don’t think you are the only one on here who has graduated from a place of higher learning.
July 29th, 2010 at 11:17 am
Real-estate still has further to fall in the US. Good map with which cities are still in decline here. Still there’s some expressing that housing will ‘recover’. Yeah and the NASDAQ is going to hit 5000 again. How long did it take for everyone to realize it was just a bubble and the current valuation was the norm?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38.....e_economy/
July 29th, 2010 at 11:19 am
@Jonathon: Good of your to parameterize your forecasts of housing prices to correlate with the U.S., unless of course there is a regime shift and correlations change. For example, does the difference in Canadian banking and American banking sectors represent a change in correlations of credit cycles?
July 29th, 2010 at 11:36 am
@C-Dawg:
Good one, C-Dawg!
I gave you a thumbs up for brilliant sarcasm.
July 29th, 2010 at 11:46 am
@metalhead: We’ve been driving a friend’s boxster this summer and it hoovers gas, especially in the city. Of course, we are unused to luxury cars, but it’s been an education, for sure!
July 29th, 2010 at 11:46 am
@jonathon
precisely, your map shows RE prices in san diego in recovery mode, but prices in san diego have hardly come down in the first place from they 2006 bubble levels. Maybe they are 10 to 15% down after 150% run up. (I am talking for desirable properties in the La Jolla that I know and follow) So if they are now in recovery mode, I guess the bubble never popped. Maybe Vancouver RE will follow in the same steps. Sure I d rather live in sunny San diego than here but the world is a big place with many people.
July 29th, 2010 at 11:49 am
@jesse: “Really?” Ya really. The point (I can’t believe I have to explain this) was that if the car buyer is concerned about the cost of gas, he probably can’t afford the car. Yes, I get your point that maybe he’s just anal, and cares about small details. I was making an off-hand comment, based on a joke. Relax.
July 29th, 2010 at 11:51 am
@metalhead: “I get about 26 mpg(US)hwy and 15 mpg(US)city for what it’s worth” Impressive! Didn’t think they would do that well.
(Maybe I CAN afford one after all! haha)
July 29th, 2010 at 11:55 am
@paradox:
Looks like a pretty good pop to me, maybe still has more to go down.
http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeq.....diego.html
The writers of the article can’t tell the future any more than we can. We can only look at the fundamentals and historically what happens in when there’s too much cheap credit…
July 29th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
Just a further note on the Vancouver to BH comparison. In additional the added values from having the underground oil tank removed, and being close to school, Safeway, a Subway right outside your door, we must also realize that Vancouver has so much more to offer than BH.
For example, does it rain or at least cloudy at least 8 months every year in BH? I don’t think so. Do people in BH just jump for joy and rush to get out their BBQ when June was cold & wet followed by 3 weeks of sunshine with no rain? No, because they get sunshine almost everyday in BH so there is no special joy from seeing sunshine and able to BBQ.
Second, do people in BH get all excited when they see actors/actress from 2nd rate movies and TV shows that you heard about but don’t watch? Again no because those are dime a dozen in California.
Third, don’t you know how much swimming pool costs to maintain? Especially when you can only really use it two months every year here? So that’s really a strike against the BH mansion with its big swimming pool.
Fourth, what’s there in BH? To go anywhere you have to like go on the highway and during rush hour driving at like what 30 to 50 mph. In Vancouver during rush hour, you get to sit in your car like in a parking lot on Oak street and put that time to productive use doing other stuff. Or you can just walk/bike and know you didn’t waste any gas. Hard to do that in BH.
Fifth, you can bitch and complain about all those foreigners coming to Vancouver, tearing down cute old timer houses and building ugly monster houses/wannabe mansions in their place, and how it’s destroying the neighboorhood feel, and making place unaffordable to your kids now, all the while asking $3.2M+ for your unrenovated house. Again, you can’t really do that in BH.
Lastly, when you host an open house in BH for a $3M+ property, you actually have to like tidy up the place, the realtor usually have to prep some snackfood, champagne, etc at the open house, treat the people who come to the open house nicely with courtsey, etc because you know, American house hunters expects that kind of nonsense when you expect them to shell out $3M+ for the house you are selling. Here, you don’t need to do any of that and can totally treat any open house guests with contempt, especially if they ask questions like what kind of fireplace it is, if it still works, etc. Because really you are already gracious enough not to charge an open house fee and not demanding the potential purchase to bow down to you! How dare these visitors actually ask dumb questions about if something works or not! Geez, the gull of some non-Shaughnessey home owners in Vancouver.
Anyways, all those additional benefits could easily add another $5M of value to the house. So $3.2M is probably too cheap for the Vancouver and that BH house should really be priced at about $500K top. It’s like comparing a fully decked out Anston Martin/Messerati to a Ford when we are comparing Vancouver to BH.
Ok end sacarsm.
July 29th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
@ absinthe & Anonymous,
I would say the numbers I put up are for a relatively light foot.
If you drive it harder they’ll drop to around 22 and 13 respectively.
You probably can afford it. It’s a 2005 that I imported myself from Dallas in 2008. Saved around 15K on Cdn prices by doing all the paperwork myself and it was not that difficult, just took a bit of time.
Our dollar was relatively strong then, just like now.
July 29th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
2 more days to go…
July = UNITS = %Sales to listings RATIO
1995 = 1978 = 42%
1996 = 2100 = 39%
1997 = 2303 = 46%
1998 = 1816 = 44%
1999 = 2181 = 58%
2000 = 1710 = 48%
2001 = 2737 = 73%
2002 = 2759 = 67%
2003 = 4140 = 88%
2004 = 3114 = 62%
2005 = 3825 = 88%
2006 = 2802 = 61%
2007 = 3955 = 76%
2008 = 2215 = 34%
2009 = 4197 = 80%
2010 = 2024 = 52% *** July 27
2010 = 2091 = 51% **July 28
July
“NEW” unit sales
YEAR= UNITS = %Sales to listings Ratio
1995 = 296 = 37%
1996 = 442 = 45%
1997 = 350 = 38%
1998 = 311 = 61%
1999 = 298 = 76%
2000 = 205 = 52%
2001 = 288 = 87%
2002 = 221 = 69%
2003 = 488 = 110%
2004 = 343 = 79%
2005 = 724 = 134%
2006 = 445 = 80%
2007 = 503 = 70%
2008 = 215 = 36%
2009 = 441 = 74%
2010 = 115 = 27% *** July 27
2010 = 116 = 27% ** July 28
July 29th, 2010 at 12:04 pm
@paradox: Uh, I’ve been following Prof. Piggington (Rich Toscano) and I don’t think those properties you’ve been following are reflective of the market in San Diego, especially w/r/t fundamentals.
Here’s a post with a few different measures, especially
Price to Income, which he does with per capita measure (rather than median, which is why the difference between his measure and standard rations) usually bounces between 7 and 10. It went up to 14 in the bubble years and has dropped back to 8.
Price to Rent, usually between 150-225, bounced up to 360 and is back down to 200.
San Diego’s market is sane, w/r/t fundamentals. I imagine they could find more downside next winter due to the tax cut leaving, like any, but it’s not an awful market right now.
July 29th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
Are well heeled buyers who have business in Canada buying ‘pied a terres’ in Vancouver instead of staying in the cockroach, bedbug and rat infested hotels and term stays? During the Olympics it was big international news that Vanshitty was pest infected and hordes of people had complained of carrying the bedbugs back to their homes after staying in Vanshitter.
The BedBug registry came to my attention again as I was researching new hotels to stay in NYC. The newest article I came across was the referance to Vanc being the most bedbug, NYC was using Vancouver as the benchmark as to how infested a city could become and they didn’t want NYC getting to the point where it was as infested as Vanc in being a rat and cockroach infested city .
Pulling up the local BedBud registry I see what they are talking about…the overlapping infestation now covers the entire downtown core and there are many referances to out of core reports of serious nfestation. Anyone driving or walking in DT Vanc can observe massive rat balls scurrying in and out of underground parking lots. The health depatment has closed or sanctioned a record number of restaurants for cockroach and rat droppings in the premises. All public information BTW….
Check out the massive numbers of infested props in the city ….and the number seems to grow daily as the infestation is spread by the workers.
http://bedbugregistry.com/metro/van
Of course the international coverage was blocked by the local media ( probably by threats of pulled ads from the local pimps) and they are turning a blind eye to the issue as they are with the shit froth in the local waters ad fecal slime on the beaches. You think people could put 2+2 together when they see the ‘toxic sealife’ signs that the city has used to mis direct the fecal coliform count in the waters.
We’re # 1 allright….in bullshitting and having the dumbest locals that is.
Condo buyers beware……is your building on the bedbug registry?
July 29th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
@Absinthe: (Which is why pointing at San Diego and saying “oh, look, a market that didn’t lose a lot of value, maybe we’re like them and won’t” is silly. First, for being untrue. Second, because so what? What’s important is a market’s fundamentals. San Diego returned to them. We will as well. It’s different nowhere.)
July 29th, 2010 at 12:37 pm
@Inventory: Very nice! I don’t see how the REBGV can spin this – sales will be off YOY almost 50% and MOM almost 25%. Prices will surely be down MOM, considering MOI. So I suppose they will focus on YOY prices – same thing they did in 2008… until YOY went negative, heh. Soon, my friends…
July 29th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
west vancouver in complete epileptic seizure
In just one month, the avg sold price plunged 22% and the median sold price plunged 15%.
http://www.yattermatters.com/n.....more-19153
July 29th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Interesting TED talk on primal instincts and economic decision making (if you have about 20 minutes)
http://www.ted.com/talks/laurie_santos.html
There’s a bit in there that addresses “sticky prices”.
Perhaps C-Dawg/Cody with all his edumacation can learn us a thing or two and explain it to all us capuchins.
July 29th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
@huh?:Crabman is a source for the main post above,Re Esteven has sold his west side house for 180% profit then he bought a house in California and he has lost entire appreciation made out of West Van home.He also have lost some part of principle value as well.He was rookie at his new work place in California so he was a first victim of lay off series. If you want rest of the story here is an link for you http://www.reuters.com/article.....JP20100729
July 29th, 2010 at 1:24 pm
I guess you people that keep praising about Southern California don’t realize that it is a desert. You can brag days and nights about how this is Raincouver, but at least there are plenty of water here. Look to the glaciers in your north. If disaster really strikes and the banking system crumbles, you will be looking at chaos everywhere. You would rather be in LA or in here? You can’t even sustain yourself in LA for more than a day without water there. How about food? There are plenty of local produce in the Fraser valley and Okanagan region. Try to locate those in Southern California. Good luck to you when you realize that water need to travel 450km from the Sierra mountain into South California. When the financial system crumbles, who is going to sustain the importation of water?
July 29th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
@C-Dawg:
If this place is not up to your standard of discourse, then Real Estate talks just might be right up your alley.
July 29th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
His attitude mirrors Kim Jong Jimtan.
He’ll fit right in over there.
July 29th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
The San Diego ‘averages’ argument may just be another red herring. Don’t forget that San Diego is a widely dispersed area with many varied neighborhoods. North Park for example, is not Del Mar, Ocean Beach or La Jolla but is still considered San Diego. Spinning out ‘averages’ to obfuscate reality is the realwhores way of duping the truly stupid. Averages mean nothing and anyone who got past Gr 9 would know that.
On another point….the number of new US foreclosures is way up, especially with the high end of the US market. This cannot be separated from the millions of houses already being withheld from sale that the banks already own. We knew this was coming a year ago when the charts for the Alt A tsunami were printed. This is it…and its as big as was projected….but nowhere near the peak, which is not expected until 2015.
In Canada, the federal government has borrowed itself into a corner….now twice chastised by the IMF for debt issues. The BOC gov says its consumers fault for borrowing too much money…where have we heard that before. Next they’ll be saying its a communist plot…thats how ludicrous the BS is. In fact , we all know it was the government that juiced the rates to zero and caused the inflation of personal debt to 150% of income. Now they can’t borrow anymore and the economy is still falling. The consumer is dead, the IMF says ‘No more’, the G20 ditto and our big bad neighbor to the south is on life support.
July 29th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
@realpaul:
Fecalpaul, do you have a link to the article to which you allude in the excerpt quoted above? As a renter, I am well aware of the bedbug problem here, but Vancouver is not the only city to have this problem.
How did the local media “block” the international coverage of the bedbug problem in Vancouver? Did Bill Good take a crap in the intertubes making it impossible for enterprising Vancouverites to read what the Daily Mirror, Le Monde or Der Spiegel has written on the issue?
July 29th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
Haha, today on HGTV “Buy Me” (ah the wonders of telecommuting):
Vancouver. Couple with new baby put in offer for new house $680k, accepted pending inspection, need to sell their original 70yo construction crapshack for $640k so they are not “stretched”. Mortgage helper in basement bailed immediately when he found out they’re selling, space now used as storage. Problem: no one’s willing to pay their price. Finale: they can’t afford anything they really like, and can’t sell their shack for what they think it’s worth.
I think it was filmed spring 2007, didn’t anything with four walls fly off the shelf?
July 29th, 2010 at 2:09 pm
@Whitebear:
>>>How about food? There are plenty of local produce in the Fraser valley and Okanagan region. Try to locate those in Southern California.<<<
Yeah, you're right.
I don't know where the hell you would find produce in southern California.
July 29th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
@paradox:
You don’t say. So why don’t you give us the addresses so we can check them out on Zillow?
We’re waiting.
July 29th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
@patriotzed
why dont you give the adressess…
well, there you have it, have fun, and let me know if you find smth intersting. I doubt though!
http://www.redfin.com/search#
July 29th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
@patriotzed: Here’s a condo in Nob Hill: 1170-Sacramento-St
Asking $1,695,000 for 2200sqft in central SF. That’s about $770/sqft. Don’t want to know what it rents for.
Appraisal was as high as $2.5MM. Prices have certainly come down in Nob Hill, anyways…
July 29th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
@Whitebear:
“If disaster really strikes and the banking system crumbles, you will be looking at chaos everywhere. You would rather be in LA or in here?”
So if civilization ends, it is better to be in Vancouver. Not much of an endorsement.
July 29th, 2010 at 3:05 pm
What the most recent California Case Shiller numbers look like:
http://img534.imageshack.us/im.....un2007.gif
San Diego’s doing well? . ….OK. And it’s obvious all these markets, like the rest of the US, reacted to the immense infusion of liquidity to the same jackasses who set the fire the first time. Can’t go on forever.
July 29th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
@fixie guy:
If you compare that to a “textbook” bubble graph it looks like they’re in the “bull trap” phase with a lot more downside to come.
http://www.moneyweek.com/~/med.....4&as=1
So, even IF prices haven’t fallen that far, and are now recovering, this is all just part of the bigger picture. We’ll probably see mini surges here during the crash too, it will be bottom when the fundamentals have been met, not before.
July 29th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
@Whitebear:
“When the financial system crumbles, who is going to sustain the importation of water?”
How about the largest military in the world. If society was about to collapse as you suggest, I don’t think America tanks (or Chinese, Russian whatever) would be stopping at a chainlink fence at Sardis.
July 29th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
@VRENGD:
Let’s see, that would be the city that had rioting after some cops were acquitted after beating up a black guy, versus the city that had rioting after its hockey team lost a big game a couple of years later.
Take your pick.
July 29th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
@ Drachen
Somewhat anecdotal BUT, with all the MSM “Levelling off”, “Modest gains” talk, I’m thinking closer to the precipice… say “return to normal”? That, and the fact that price reductions are ruling the roost these days. Thoughts?
July 29th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
West van house listed for 3.6M sold for 2.6M after 55 Dom. No reductions. Crazy!
July 29th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
Seems I’ve raised the ire of the defenders of the lie, the deniers. Thats nice. Bedbugs are ubiquitous in Vancouver and the media refuses to raise the issue….why…. for tourism or the real estate pimps…is it some kind of sick city loyalty subterfuge? What is it about the truth that some people just can’t stand???????
During the Olympics several major networks ran prime time coverage on how nasty the Vanshitter bedbug problem really is. The local politico’s went ballistic when the Guardian started to tell the truth, the government started a smear campaign against the international papers for printing Shitcouvers own previously published material re the DTES. Deeeeeeeeenial….and yet…we have dipshits still popping up and trying to defend the cities actions????????????? Wierd.
We’ll always have people wanting to stick their heads up their asses for reasons that don’t make sense to anyone but themselves…maybe they have an infested condo and want to get out before the news spreads? Whatever….the truth is that Vancshithole is the most bedbug infested city in the world !!!!!!! Yes…..we’re number one!!!!!
Check out the west end map of the bedbug registry….literally every building is infested. But the deniers want to keep it quiet eh? Shhhhhhhhhhhh!!!! Don’t make them feel bad about the truth. lets all hide our heads up our asses and sing Kum By Ya. Ooooooops, the world already knows, its only being quashed by the local deniers…..does it smell good up there fella’s?
http://bedbugregistry.com/loca.....Cardero-St
July 29th, 2010 at 5:17 pm
Dirty!
New Listings 132
Price Changes 87
Sold Listings 131
July 29th, 2010 at 5:18 pm
@chip:
“How about the largest military in the world. If society was about to collapse as you suggest, I don’t think America tanks (or Chinese, Russian whatever) would be stopping at a chainlink fence at Sardis.”
Do you mean that army that’s having a hell of a time defeating a bunch of cave-men with fifty year old equipment?
They aren’t the largest anyhow, just the most expensive and much of the expense comes from overbudgeted weapons programs that are either ineffective or complete failures thrown around as political favours.
July 29th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
I’ve lived in two West End buildings on the bed bug registry, and I’ve never had any problem with bedbugs.
Also, I am a fairly friendly guy who has met many of my neighbors over the years, and I’ve never had anyone mention a problem with bedbugs to me.
Almost all my friends live in apartment buildings throughout Vancouver – and not once have I heard any of them mention having a bedbug problem.
I’m not saying bedbugs aren’t out there – but it is nowhere near the scale shown on bedbugregistry.com. Most of those complaints are probably from disgruntled ex-tenants.
July 29th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
@paulb.: ooh finally.
Here’s a chance at a 100% sell/list day.
First time this year if it happens.
I wonder how much of this high sales is due to price drops. Can this crash possibly be sharper than the one of 2008?
That would certainly be something to behold.
July 29th, 2010 at 5:51 pm
@Drachen:
“Do you mean that army that’s having a hell of a time defeating a bunch of cave-men with fifty year old equipment?”
I think it’s more accurate to say they’re having a hard time winning while adhering to modern rules of engagement and trying to nation-build. The US could turn Afghanistan into rubble if it wished but wars are fought differently today, and that’s a good thing.
“They aren’t the largest anyhow, just the most expensive and much of the expense comes from overbudgeted weapons programs that are either ineffective or complete failures thrown around as political favours.”
I’m second to no one in my distaste for wasteful spending, but I have spent most of my life living in Europe and Asia, and I don’t think there’s any doubt that this ineffective and complete failure of military expenditure was probably the main reason that many people on these continents today aren’t eking out living dangerous and impoverished lives.
It’s easy in Canada to take the US for granted. It’s been a protective and lucrative relationship for us. But I also have no doubt they would grab our water and oil in two weeks flat if they ever suffered the kind of collapse that Whitebear was referring too.
July 29th, 2010 at 6:04 pm
Don’t worry about the Americans, if the shit hits the fan they’ll turn their guns on each other first and they have 100’s of millions of them.
Besides, they can’t even find Canada on a map.
July 29th, 2010 at 6:44 pm
They can’t find Iraq on a map either and yet they are there.
July 29th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
this crash will be sharper than 2008, and much much more severe at the end of the day.
listings surge will recommence in about 6 weeks. MOI set to surge to over 20.
mark these words
July 29th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
I’m not saying bedbugs aren’t out there – but it is nowhere near the scale shown on bedbugregistry.com. Most of those complaints are probably from disgruntled ex-tenants.
Are you saying realpaul posted misleading inflammatory information???!!!!!?!? I AM SHOCKED AND OUTRAGED
July 29th, 2010 at 7:23 pm
LOL! Only someone from there would know just how true this is!
July 29th, 2010 at 7:25 pm
Bah messed up the quote:
If society was about to collapse as you suggest, I don’t think America tanks (or Chinese, Russian whatever) would be stopping at a chainlink fence at Sardis.
That really does describe CFB Chilliwack. At least I think it does; haven’t been back in 10 years.
July 29th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
high sales today = low sales tomorrow (long weekend push forward)
July 29th, 2010 at 9:14 pm
Hey Pope Garth stole your idea (kind of)…
http://www.greaterfool.ca
July 29th, 2010 at 10:29 pm
@realpaul: Once again fecalpaul, it would seem that you are full of it.
I searched Lexis-Nexis for references in the Guardian to the bedbug problem in Vancouver. There was exactly one hit (from an article published February 4, 2010), but it was based on a quote from Wayne, 51 years old and a marginalized resident of the DTES. Wayne was interviewed because he shared the author’s fear that the homeless would be rounded up just prior to the start of the Games and shipped off to not be seen again for a few months. The article ends with a quote from Wayne about how the whole of the DTES and its cockroaches and bedbugs should be razed.
As for your claim that many major [television] networks ran stories on the bedbug problem in Vancouver, it would seem once again that your claim suffers from the small problem that it’s untrue. I searched the Vanderbilt Television News Archive and there was not a single story about bedbugs in Vancouver. Admittedly, the archive only contains TV news footage from US television stations, so a Canadian TV station may have done a report. But cone again, given your track record and your propensity not to provide sources when queried, I think it’s safe to say that no such report was ever broadcast. Moreover, had the bedbugs been such an issue that TV stations were covering the story, do you think that US TV stations would also not have covered the story?
July 29th, 2010 at 10:38 pm
@oneangryslav2:
Vancouver has a bedbug problem. Also roaches and rats, disproportionate to other North American cities, regardless of RP’s suggested propensity to embellish things.
No, I can’t provide suitable links either, but in my trade I have been in thousands of commercial buildings, here, accross Canada and in the USofA. What I have seen here is unmatched anywhere. Let me put it this way, I don’t eat out alot, even though I can afford it.
July 29th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
Interesting sell/list today. Of course, this is mainly due to a big drop off in new listings, not from particularly high sales.
July 29th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....inionsbox1
July 29th, 2010 at 11:18 pm
What buffoonery it is to say that the thousands of complaints and the hundreds of buildings in the bedbug registry are all products of ‘disgruntled tenants’. Saying this proves that the poster is working a sick twisted and perverted agenda to try to disguise the reality. I would say it is either the work of a city worker, a scared shitless landlord or an abject denier who can’t sanction the idea that Vanshithole isn’t #1.
I met a PCO guy who told me that if ‘I saw what he saw in the kitchens of Vanshitholes best restaurants’ that I would never eat out in Vandumpo again. This professional bug man detailed tha restaraunts that had rat roach mouse silverfish ant….everything else infestations that were permanent.
The Vancouver bedbug infestation extends to public transport infestation, public athletic facilities, private exercise gyms ( all big names) residential and commercial properties ( throughout the Fraser Valley) and even movie theatres. I was warned specifically not to ever bring cardboard boxes into the house from grocery and liquor stores as they are 100% contaminated with vermin. Anyone just has to Google Bedbugs Vancouver and get 114,000 options, change the search parameters a single word and get thousands more.
It seems that the deniers are really antsy about this topic getting out….lets torch their silly asses so they don’t get to hidey hole on this one. What kind of assholery is going on with the deniers these days that makes them desperate to hide an odious infestation of bedbugs rats roaches and vermin??????????? Its not like everybody doesn’t already know. Try tripping through Travel Advisor and listing any Vanshithole hotels.
July 29th, 2010 at 11:25 pm
DEFLATION:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/.....5.html?x=0
More Japan workers lose jobs, factory output falls
Japan’s jobless rate up in June for 4th straight month as prices and factory output fall
July 29th, 2010 at 11:47 pm
I’m hearing that prices are going back up. People are pulling properties off the market and waiting for improved prices in September. Perhaps this might work?
Interest rates are very low, Canadians love debt, we’re not like all those other places, perhaps it’s different here?
July 30th, 2010 at 12:01 am
@Jeff:
Oh my god, the inventory is shrinking. Sellers are jacking up prices everyday. Rich Chinese are snapping up condos left, right and center. Rennie Marketing keeps making millions. The economy is so strong, our jobs are rock solid. What am I going to do? I’ll be priced out forever!
July 30th, 2010 at 12:12 am
I was serious.
July 30th, 2010 at 2:38 am
We have one more day to go to tally the sales numbers.
Looks like sales will be down around 45% this month compared to last year.
July units
2008 = 2024
2009 = 4197
2010 = 2222 = -47% **July 29
July 30th, 2010 at 2:40 am
July Sales for new units
New detached (house)
2009 = 127
2010 = 36 = -71% **July 29
New attached (townhouse)
2009 = 133
2010 = 21 = -84% **July 29
New apartments (condo)
2009 = 180
2010 = 66 = -63% **July 29
July 30th, 2010 at 8:24 am
CA is in a bankruptcy state in case bears dont notice.
July 30th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
@Anonymous: Whenever Cali does something new, we follow a couple years later.
July 31st, 2010 at 11:05 am
Playing devil’s advocate here to some extent, but given the choice between living in Beverly Hills and Vancouver, there’s no question that I’d choose the latter. I wonder if attitudes are shifting somewhat and that’s becoming the case for an increasing number of people. Given, the Beverly Hills house is a lot nicer. But really, who would want to live in such a phony, crowded, polluted place?