Friday free-for-all!
Well, you made it to the end of another work week. Lets do our regular weekend news round up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent stories to kick things off:
-Two charts for the Canadian housing bubble
-Realtors launch ad campaign to buff up their image
-Here’s the creepy ad in question
-Teranet: rising home prices set to stall
-The spirited things Vancouverites say about home prices
-More US housing market dismay detail
-Looking back at rear-view mirror forecasts
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
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August 27th, 2010 at 1:25 am
Looks like we’re back to the 1990′s average sales.
Aug Unit sales
1994 = 2159
1995 = 2326
1996 = 2141
1997 = 2096
1998 = 1589
1999 = 2002
2000 = 1805
2001 = 2659
2002 = 2558
2003 = 3413
2004 = 2570
2005 = 3800
2006 = 3092
2007 = 3493
2008 = 1611
2009 = 3496
2010 = 1908 *** Aug 26
August 27th, 2010 at 1:36 am
In 2002 there where 6600+ real tors.
Last month it hit a new record of 10k
(Not including the Fraser valley)
In 1989 there where 35000+ sales
In 2002 35000+ sales
In 2008 25000+ sales
In 2009 36000+ sales
August 27th, 2010 at 6:29 am
RE: The things Vancouverites say about home prices.
Those comments illustrate much of the reason there is now a bubble in Van. housing.
About 1/2 of those people are morons.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:14 am
Reading the Sun article is interesting, if only that it gives a different perspective on opinions than the normal blog comments.
Still it’s obvious re will continue to be the province of fools for some time. So ingrained are the beliefs that immigration and lack of land drive prices without a regard for rental value. It’s like a Twilight Zone episode where the realities of other cities with the same conditions as Vancouver don’t apply. I blame it on the city’s isolation.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:26 am
Holy fking creepy! That has to be the scariest looking ad I’ve ever seen for anything that wasn’t supposed to be frightening. Maybe just the scariest ad ever. If I were a Realtor, I don’t think I’d be too pleased about that.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:40 am
@House:
http://www.imf.org/external/pu.....people.htm
In other words, fundamentals don’t matter until they (inevitably) do.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:48 am
Postive spin on Aug 2010 sales would be as follows:
Sales in Aug 2010 were 1908 units. While this is lower than the same period last year, it was higher than the same period 2 years ago. We should also keep in mind that 2009 was an extremely strong year with sales higher than years 2006, 2007 and 2008. In fact, with the exception of 2005, Aug 2009 experienced the highest sales for the period over the years 1994 to 2010.
Going forward, with continued low interest rates and increased product on the market, we expect the sales to pick up over the next few months.
If you are in the market to buy or sell, please contact one of our knowledgable Realtors (TM) to guide you through the entire process.
August 27th, 2010 at 8:12 am
Good morning bear, thanks for lousy weather. All the DougieDog Downer comments and Vancouver bash means summer is now over and rain start.
Look at Van Sun Cayo article about RE market. No comments from VCI bears? This was your chance bear, to get word out of impending armageddon. But all bear stay safe in VCI bear den, no one stick neck out. No sound and fury, signify nothing? Maybe not so sure of 70% crash after all.
- Vancouver is better city than bear admit. London, Paris, NY, those are world class city to visit but not to live and raise family.
- Vancouver ‘fundamental value’ higher than bear calculate. Forget 3x income, try maybe 6x. This means 20% too high at most, still too high for bear who will be disappoint.
- Vancouver RE market fare better than bear expect. If world economy stay in toilet then expect slight drop. If world economy pick up, then expect stagnation. Both follow by next leg up kite to moon.
August 27th, 2010 at 8:25 am
@patriotzed:
That’s the case with anything unsustainable. It keeps going fine, until suddenly it doesn’t.
August 27th, 2010 at 8:26 am
A Different Kind Of Real Estate Line-Up
“Homeowners line up in the rain before dawn today outside the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach in hopes of saving their homes. The Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America is making its second whirlwind stop in West Palm Beach to try and save the homes of struggling borrowers.”
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1fH
—–
Bubble Denial Persists In Vancouver
“It’s fairly easy to understand why people argue that the circumstances of a current bubble are somehow different from those past: They feel removed in space and time from those who went crazy over tulips or railroads or radio.
When the Vancouver bubble implodes, however, it is going to be very, very difficult for local real estate owners and speculators to suggest that they had no idea that such a bust was going to happen. We’ve had the experience of watching it in real time and in slo-mo, playing out to our south.
Despite this, we STILL expect people here to tell each other that “no one could have known” that such a bust could occur. They will do this to protect the fantasy of their own wisdom, in the face of all the evidence to the contrary. -vreaa”
August 27th, 2010 at 8:32 am
I had a hearty chuckle at that. I mean, how much of a moron do you have to be to say something like that in public? Must be the same “new paradigm” the .com companies were operating under.
August 27th, 2010 at 8:36 am
@House:
Still it’s obvious re will continue to be the province of fools for some time.
Woah, quite the typo there, dude. “BC” isn’t even on the same row of keys as “re”…
August 27th, 2010 at 8:36 am
Who ever came up with the realtors ad campaign is a moron. If that is all a realtor does then my suggestion is to NOT advertise it. You pay $20K for a realtor to help with paper work and negotiations and give a bunch of BS answers. I guess they are scared of getting sued if they made the claim of actually doing something worth paying for.
“When I was selling my place, my realtor helped with all the paperwork”
“I’m not a real people person either, so my realtor helped with my negotiations, too.”
“All that back and forth…yuck. And when it came to finding qualified buyers or a house with a park next door, my realtor had all the answers,”
August 27th, 2010 at 8:44 am
@Renting:\
guess they are scared of getting sued if they made the claim of actually doing something worth paying for.
OK, here’s the takehome message: if you are…
“When I was selling my place, my realtor helped with all the paperwork”
… very disorganized, distractable and prone to forgetting things when dealing with something important …
“I’m not a real people person either, so my realtor helped with my negotiations, too.”
… uncomfortable being up-front with your desires, plainly negotiating for what you want, and keeping your ego out of conversation …
“All that back and forth…yuck. And when it came to finding qualified buyers or a house with a park next door, my realtor had all the answers,”
… incapable of using Google Maps, reading how-to books and websites or driving around to take pictures and notes by yourself …
use a REALTOR®.
August 27th, 2010 at 8:45 am
@vreaa:
“When the Vancouver bubble implodes, however, it is going to be very, very difficult for local real estate owners and speculators to suggest that they had no idea that such a bust was going to happen.”
People will say exactly that. It will be blamed on some unforeseen event. Kind of like the nice summer weather effecting sales this year. Who could have seen that coming?
All the talk will be about “buying opportunities” and when the market will bounce back like it did in 2008.
August 27th, 2010 at 8:46 am
Is there a place where it is actually spelled out what the realtor is expected to do to earn their commission? Is this included in the contract?
What is actually in a realtor’s job description?
August 27th, 2010 at 8:52 am
Can a twelve year old with pigtails and freckles buy a house in BC?
Sure, it’s never too early to get in the market. Ask your Realtor how it’s done!
August 27th, 2010 at 9:01 am
@giggling: It’s whatever you negotiate. If you’re selling remember there are a LOT of Realtors out there and very few sales. If you price to sell they should get close to nothing. Otherwise you need to pay for all the lipstick they will need to apply to sell your overpriced property in a bear market.
Re bear market’s first casualty is the Realtor.
August 27th, 2010 at 9:11 am
As the pressure builds and people lose more money at the same time as they are faced with a higher cost of living and escalating taxes while receiving zero return on their investments…where do they go for safety from the perfect storm that has developed????? In the gambling industry of course.
http://www.vancouversun.com/Mo.....story.html
The pressure to maintain an artificial lifestyle on less revenue at a time when personal debt is at its highest while intrest rates and inflation are screaming higher, the government has seen a windfall of profiting from the desperation of Canadians who were manipulated into spending more than they could ever pay back…seniors have been kneecapped by having the Fed reduce rates to zero so that the few remaining savings are now desperately gambled away..This is not going to end well.
http://www.nationalpost.com/ne.....story.html
I mentioned yesterday that the idiots we have elected have not produced the outcomes of a meritocracy as has Singapore….and it shows. Cover your asses girls and boys….its looking like the nasty is coming down the tube for Canada…..and our guys aren’t smart enough to fix it without gouging you.
August 27th, 2010 at 9:20 am
It’s funny that all of the other truly “professional” occupations out there, don’t have to run commercials explaining how valuable their intangible services supposedly are.
When will these idiots stop with the constant barrage of lies ?
August 27th, 2010 at 9:23 am
@ Renting People will say exactly that. It will be blamed on some unforeseen event. Kind of like the nice summer weather effecting sales this year. Who could have seen that coming?
That’s the scary part. You see the industry staying ‘on message’ down south too: the collapse is an aberration, this is a Black Swan event, houses really do always appreciate. Real estate is to Van what gambling is to Vegas. You just know that no matter how destructive the correction or how far prices drop the locals could very well take another run at it some day.
August 27th, 2010 at 9:33 am
My god, I thought there was nothing creepier than an Ian Watt video taped in a back alley where you can’t see where Ian’s hands are UNTIL I saw this realtor video.
My eyes, it burns!!
August 27th, 2010 at 9:54 am
What’s up bloggers?? Been a while… just got back from holidays overseas, good times.
Anyway, a couple anecdotes: First, stopped in Montreal for a couple nights on the way home, what a city! Not only beautiful and full of history it’s full of beautiful people. What do they put in the water? We need some of that over here, damn.
Second, real estate bargains are all over Europe right now, prices are down around 60-80% from three years ago out there, no bottom and tons of inventory.
Third, story of a friend who quit his job and became a realtor this year, finding it hard. Shocking that the fella has done it for what… 8 months and hasn’t seen a profit yet, when anyone that does sales will tell you, don’t expect to make any money in your first 3 years… this is what happened during this boom, so much easy money was made by these folks that the newbies forgot the cardinal rule of being patient.
Oh well, there’s far too many people out here connected to real estate, once the downturn hits it hard enough they’ll all be back in the unemployment line.
Oh ya, the other thing, he couldn’t believe his agency fees of $500 per month and expenses that he’s had to pay… it’s a business, there’s tons of overhead… what did you expect? Anyway, good to see the ship is heading in the right direction now, keep on, keepin on.
August 27th, 2010 at 9:58 am
@fixie guy:
And yet, you can easily point out what houses cost 50 years ago, and what they cost now, and it’s obviously higher.
However, so is the price of bread, milk, gas, and pretty much every good we buy. Simple inflation explains a 2-3% annual increase.
Additionally, the house prices have not gone up in a straight line, much like stock markets. Someone who bought NASDAQ in 2000 is still 40% underwater, if they bought the index. Individual .coms are trading at 0. Market in general, Dow Jones, is today below 2000 levels. Anyone who bought in late 2008 will probably not see their price back for another 10 years.
And so with real estate. No one doubts that real estate prices go up, averaged out, over decades. So does everything else, so it’s not much of a point. But there are obviously good times to buy, and not so good times to buy. Buying at the wrong time could see you losing money on a sale (not even counting realtor and legal fees and taxes) for 10 years or more. Sure, eventually you’ll be ahead, but it wasn’t exactly money well spent.
The key is buying at the right time. It doesn’t have to be exact. It never will be. But it must be sensible. When prices skyrocket, with no economic metrics to support them (incomes, rents, inflation) except for easy and cheap credit, that is a speculative bubble. People buying at high prices don’t expect to pay off their mortgage, or they wouldn’t be opting for 35 and longer amortizations; they expect to eventually sell their house for much more than they paid.
This house-as-retirement-plan scheme is based on several upgrade moves, until you reach retirement, sell your big house, buy a cottage and live happily ever after on the proceeds. But turn that around. For every sale, there must be a buyer. (Which is why the argument that “if everyone sells and rents, then rents will be going up” falls flat on its face.) Ultimately, this “trade-up” scheme must be supported at the bottom layer, like a pyramid, by new entrants, ie, FTBs. And if FTBs can no longer afford to buy their first house, then how are the people ahead of them going to sell and move up? They’re not, the whole pyramid will collapse. It doesn’t matter how many FTBs (or immigrants) there are, and how much demand for housing there is. If prices are out of reach, no one will buy.
Now, of course it will not collapse like your typical run of the mill pyramid scheme, because housing is a necessity, and people still need a place to live, so housing always has intrinsic value. It will never go to 0, or even close. But perpetual bulls have to somehow account for the fact that at some point, the prices cannot be supported. It’s simple math.
Speculative and “investment” properties will be the first to go, but again, without buyers, they will have to be dumped onto the rental market, or sold at a steep discount, leading price declines. This all takes time. Owners can and will absorb losses for a period of time. General consumer economy is still chugging along, as HELOC money is sloshing around. Eventually, all forms of credit will decline, and all economic activity will have to sustain itself at levels consistent with incomes, minus deleveraging expenses. That’s why prices will undershoot “fair” valuations.
The trajectory today is obvious, even if it takes months to play out. Hundreds of years of history tells us bubbles pop, then continue decline to painful levels. At some point, prices will bottom out and become affordable, buyers will return, and trends will reverse. Then the bulls can have their parties.
August 27th, 2010 at 10:22 am
I call BS. 60-80%? Where. Provide data. Otherwise just bear fantasy after too much Euro wine.
August 27th, 2010 at 11:11 am
@SuperSmartBull:
“I call BS. 60-80%? Where.”
Possibly in the depths of the Ukrainian countryside.
August 27th, 2010 at 11:51 am
um…anywhere in Ireland….
August 27th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
@patient renter: Ummmm….wrong.
http://www.statusireland.com/s.....-1996.html
Ireland, which was end of the rainbow for Europe housing bust is down 40% in Dublin and about 30% nationally.
Bear, this blog becoming sadder every day. 60-80% gets quoted and not question value and only vote up because conform with group think. If someone post on their vacation they see 95% drop, that post will get maximum vote up right away.
August 27th, 2010 at 12:35 pm
@SuperSmartBull: The US, as a whole, is down about 30% since the drop and you can find houses/condos in areas there–especially FL, NV, CA–that are at least 60% less than at the peak. Hell, some condos in FL are selling for more than 80% off peak. There was a link to a story about it on here a few weeks ago.
I know, SSB, hard to believe that RE prices could crash so much, but economic reality has a way of intruding upon the inane fantasies of would-be RE tycoons like you.
By the way, I’ve been meaning to ask: what is your current situation vis-a-vis real estate: Do you own? When did you buy? Are you a landlord? Is your main source of income dependent upon the real estate industry?
Thanks.
My own responses to the my questions above are: no (will never buy until prices get to where the owner’s premium is reasonable) , have never owned, not a landlord, and my income is not dependent upon real estate. My profession allows me to work pretty much anywhere in the world, and while I like Vancouver (I am a native Vancouverite with family here), I could easily pick up an move as I have in the past.
August 27th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
@SSB lamented “because conform with group think“.
SSB, the champion of clear thinking on a blurry blog; the author of imaginative, incisive and intelligent insight; the source of market analysis that is unfettered by a dull mind.
Or is he rather the peerless postulator of preposterous propositions?
Hmmm, one or the other, for sure.
August 27th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
#24 D, right, there will come a time where RE will become so toxic that no one will want to buy it..that will obviate the time to buy….that time is not now or even close….further in Canada than in the US where we see this phenomena already begin to occur. We see that rates are at all time lows and still people do want want to buy at any price..this is the bear effect that will become ubiquitous before any possible turn in the market.
Here as in the US we are for oversupplied and overpriced, even at zero rates there simply are not enough warm bodies…in China ditto, the market there has begun to implode after everyone bought their third condo and there is no one left to sell or rent to…hence whole projects empty ( see throughs)and falling prices. How could anyone assume otherwise.
Well, if reality could get any stranger….I have often repeated Dr. Foote’s ( Boom Bust Echo) assertion that current building trends are already obselete in the Vancouver condo market. he said that Vanc condos are unusable at this point because they are too small to accomadate growth in the demographic of FTB’s. I was just sitting in a cafe in Kits overhearing two young women talk about how one had just closed on a condo with the boyfriend when she found out that she is pregnant…they bought a 500 sq ft one bedroom and now realise ( smacko) that they cannot possibly raise a child in a catbox.
Bwahahahhahahahahah if they had only listened to Dr Foote before they bought eh”. So they’re underwater, can’t sell, need to move before the baby comes or face putting the crib in the ‘flex space’ Bwahahahhahahahahahaha. How can people be so shortsighted??????????? The things the pimps don’t mention eh?
August 27th, 2010 at 12:56 pm
@ Supersmartbull.
wow, only down 40%…
you’re right (you’re so smart), that’s not a good example…40% is small change.
Going to be a lot more in Vannotsogroovyanymore
August 27th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
Since it’s Friday, I think nothing is really off-topic, right? And this one is about money and how we are leading in one more category apart form RE stupidity… Canadians are paying the HIGHEST MOBILE PHONE BILLS IN THE WORLD!
Wow, I mean,… wow!
Link: http://wirelessnorth.ca/2010/0.....the-world/
August 27th, 2010 at 1:15 pm
What happened to Location, Location, Location. Perhaps it’s Timing, Timing, Timing.
Europe’s ING Group sells Canadian properties at $1.3 billion discount
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/cap.....ada_summit
ING bought Summit, which had been a publicly traded real-estate investment trust, in 2006 for $2.1 billion, and assumed $1.2 billion in debt — a premium to the public market price at the time.
But property values plummeted following the credit crisis in the fall of 2008, which required government bailouts of several major banks and insurance companies in the United States and Europe and shook confidence in real-estate.
August 27th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
@SuperSmartBull: I was in Portugal for part of the trip. Homes that were selling for around $500k Euro are now priced around $100k, that’s 80%. Plenty of others that were $300-$400k selling around $100k too. These are the extremes and they are out there, but there were some new units that were still priced up there.
Here’s another example: My cousin is a developer and built some beautiful condos, he was looking to sell them around $300k, I just about shit when he said that, but he told me a few years ago he could’ve landed well over $500k for them. That didn’t surprise me since a few years ago we had people making offers on our summer home which wasn’t even for sale. Nowadays though, no… not so much. You see its the credit tightening that’s being felt all over the world. You had record levels of debt floating around, trillions of it wiped out completely, and the rest has been tightened, there’s simply less money/credit/debt, ergo less demand.
Driving around I saw plenty of “Vende-Se” signs all over the place. It’s like the entire country is for sale right now. Good bargains, but hey SSB don’t take my word for it, go visit for yourself, beautiful country, maybe even the Best Place on Earth!LOL!
August 27th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
@Vansanity: No wonder some of the places are selling cheap. Have you seen Euro area bond spreads? Scary.
August 27th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
@giggling:
“Canadians are paying the HIGHEST MOBILE PHONE BILLS IN THE WORLD!
Wow, I mean,… wow!”
What do you think infrastructure costs are in a country as sparsely populated as Canada? It’s only within the last year or so that cellphone companies here are actually started marketing themselves based on lowest price rather than best coverage.
August 27th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
LET’S GET REAL
BY CAMERON MUIR
….interesting
http://vancouversun.specialsec.....ncouversun
August 27th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
@Anoymous:
Oh please, spare me the “sparse population” BS…
All the population is by the border and where there isn’t any, there’s no coverage. Did you look at the chart? You think Russia’s “density” is that much higher then Canada’s??? The prices are fixed – that’s it.
The same BS arguments are used by local dealers that claim canadian car prices are so much higher because of the cost of doing business here – sparse population and all that BS. Well, if that’s the case, how come the price of a new Toyota Tundra truck sold in Alaska is nearly half that of the same truck sold in BC? Ha?, would you please kindly explain?!
August 27th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
@giggling:
“would you please kindly explain?!”
I thought market price was set by an agreement between a buyer and a seller? Perhaps the Canadian market will sustain higher prices, as buyers are prepared to pay what they’re charging? If you don’t like the high prices of cars and trucks in Canada, don’t buy.
August 27th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Guest @ August 27th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
Thanks for the link!
“The inventory of unsold new homes is also a fraction of previous highs. In August 1995, more than 5,200 units were finished and sitting vacant in Metro Vancouver, 4,100 in August 2000. Today there are less than 2,500 is this category. The absence of a large overhang in inventory reduces the likelihood of falling home prices as additions to the housing stock more closely match the rate of population growth.”
—————————————————–
I’m sure Mr Muir is a nice guy and may truly believe in the strength of the Metro Vancouver market.
Now compare to the positive spin I wrote in Comment #7 at 7:48 this morning. Can I get a job with the B.C. Real Estate Association and be Mr Muir’s backup when he’s on vacation?
August 27th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
@Guest:
Ah, there goes Dch. Muir with his wealthy Asians and strong immigration again, both of which we had in the 70′s, 80′s and 90′s as well.
Sounds like he really wants prices to stay up the stratosphere where 90% of Vancouverites can’t afford them.
What a prick.
August 27th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
A tweet sent from Polygon Homes
Get it before it is gone
@polygonhomes: Line up officially started at Wishing Tree for tomorrow’s opening. Townhomes in Richmond from the mid $400′s http://bit.ly/cOoYYd
August 27th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
#35 VS, Spain has over a million properties listed for sale, another million vacant and held by the banks and millions more that are held by specuvestors who thought that the free money train would never stop….real estate always go’s up right??????
Builders who have been in the business for generations are being cleaned out. Classic ponzi scam getting wrung out by the shorts….not unlike Vancouver, everyone wanted to live there, the same analogies were applied by the Euro versions of cunts like Muir, Jurock, Rennie, Tsur etc tec….all proven wrong and now on the wrong side of class action suits by banks and individuals who got hallucinogenic on the kol aid that was being doled out by the so called ‘experts’…may they rot in hell.
We see the same scenario playing out in overhyped markets everywhere…name one…same story , differant geography…..Hawaii, FLA, CA, NYC…..TO……Dublin..Helsinki….you name it.
What is happening here is that the cabal of government intrests, credit unions and pimps have disallowed hard information to disseminate through to the public via the media….people are stupid like that…especially in Vancouver….they think that the newspapers are telling them the truth when in fact the truth is some other than what they read in the papers. A collapse is in full swing….the pimps would rather you didn’t know…sssshhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!! It’s differant here. Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaa…I just shit myself laughing….damn
August 27th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
@Guest:
“Line up officially started at Wishing Tree for tomorrow’s opening.”
Wouldn’t surprise me if there was at least one person there who’s only there for the hope of selling their place in the line
August 27th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
@Jimmy: Muir: “…the absence of a large overhang in inventory reduces the likelihood of falling home prices”
Low rental yields be damned. It’s all about the supply and demand you see. What a maroon.
August 27th, 2010 at 4:30 pm
@Guest: Ah, another marketer trying to create the lineup hype…”Get in now or be priced out forever!”
I drove past Concord Pacific’s Park Place towers (formerly known as Infinity Towers before original owner went bankrupt in ’08). On a massive billboard was this nonsense:
WORTH WAITING FOR
I didn’t see any lineup. Just tumbleweeds.
August 27th, 2010 at 4:54 pm
“And yet, you can easily point out what houses cost 50 years ago, and what they cost now, and it’s obviously higher.”
Yes, at the end of a federally stimulated 20 year asset bubble I’m sure they are more expensive. That begs the question. Ask yourself how anyone can afford homes build centuries ago in world class European cities if real estate appreciation exceeds inflation in principle. Answer is is can’t, nothing can, which is the conclusion Case and Shiller arrived at by examining sales pairs. Likewise studies of some of those European cities showed appreciation after 500 years worked out to zero, which makes perfect sense. Appreciation of any single asset class can’t consistently exceed the rise in wages and goods – inflation – in perpetuity. That’s the fantasy realtors pushed for generations, fueling this bubble. Home ownership had the benefit of forcing savings, which provided a retirement bonus, but appreciation wasn’t required for that.
August 27th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
@fixie guy:
Best post I’ve read in a long time.
August 27th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
“Oh sh!t! Isn’t there 2 decent tenants out there?”
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....26258.html
Matt and Jacy plan a busy day hosting rental open houses:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....33326.html
It seems that even during this time of year, when students are arriving by the busload, landlords are struggling. All kinds of signing bonuses for new tenants and a much friendlier tone than years past.
August 27th, 2010 at 5:15 pm
@fixie guy:
“That’s the fantasy realtors pushed for generations, fueling this bubble.”
Are you saying that realtors are some sort of…..pushers?
August 27th, 2010 at 5:37 pm
@fixie guy: Pretty much what I was saying. Everything has gone up in price along with the cost of living. Notable exceptions being houses (which exceed inflation) and wages (which are stagnant in real terms), a clear disconnect, which must come to a head sooner or later. Housing will correct, because it is way out of line, and will fall back into its affordability range.
Stalled wages, which will always play catch up to inflation in cost of living, are making everyone poorer, further decreasing housing affordability. If everything is costing you more, and taxes keep going up, how are rising house prices supported? They’re not. Well, they’re supported by giving up future income, but you can only give up 100%. What’s next, multi-generational (interest-only) mortgages?
We’re living in a make-believe fantasy world, made up of credit.
August 27th, 2010 at 5:53 pm
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 120
Back On Market Listings – 3
Price Changes – 75
Sold Listings – 90
*Attached & Detached – Date: 08/27/2010 Time:17:24 PST YatterMatters.com:Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.
August 27th, 2010 at 5:58 pm
@fixie guy: “how anyone can afford homes build centuries ago in world class European cities if real estate appreciation exceeds inflation”
Agree but a buyer today isn’t necessarily looking for appreciation above inflation in perpetuity. He is looking for justifiable price appreciation as the city attracts more and richer people in the coming few decades. Many are effectively betting Vancouver will turn into a Hong Kong or New York or whatever and the incomes/density that go along with those cities will follow, thus supporting the higher prices.
Call them speculators if you want but I think many truly believe Vancouver is going to be ushered into a new world-class paradigm that justifies current prices. Maybe, but if this were even remotely close to being realized, the rents that could be charged should be increasing significantly. It just isn’t happening and I don’t think it will happen before some “black swan” event wipes out any hope of “holding on” until the city becomes “Vanhattan”.
The “black swan” need be only as simple as higher interest rates, if one counts that as a black swan at all. Some will call it that I’m sure. Hoocoodanode!
August 27th, 2010 at 6:07 pm
Days elapsed so far 19
Days remaining 2
Average Sales this month 105
Average Listings this month 181
Projected Sales 2211
Projected New Listings 3792
Projected sell/list 58.3%
Sales are in the toilet, but so are new listings. Total inventory must be dropping too. Weird market . . .
August 27th, 2010 at 6:07 pm
New Listings 123
Price Changes 81
Sold Listings 100
August 27th, 2010 at 6:11 pm
@VHB:
Not as much action as I had expected. Listings should go on a tear in Sept-Oct. Right now inventory is at 16,800. Still a high MOI.
August 27th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
@VHB: “Sales are in the toilet, but so are new listings.”
Inventory is typically flat/falling in August and starts increasing in September, for the much-anticipated and usually under-performing fall selling season.
I still think there isn’t major distress in this market and no signs of interest rate rises for the rest of the year (who woulda thunk it!). I see MOI remaining on the high side but not shooting up like a rocket like in ’08. Low interest rates can’t prop up a market in perpetuity.
August 27th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
@jesse:
Ya, just may slow the date of price declines. No more rate increases? Why do you say that? Garth Turner expects another bump up in Sept.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
I have a theory about the recent drop-off in listings. I think that unlike 2 years ago, there are far more people who simply *can’t* sell below a certain price because they’re underwater. I personally know of several people who tried to sell recently but didn’t get the price they needed. They would have needed to cough up a big check if they sold at the price that current buyers were willing to pay, and they just don’t have the money to make up the difference. Some of them bought a couple of years ago at the previous peak, and others are loaded up on home equity debt.
So I suspect that all those people who listed and let their listing expire are holding on to a sinking asset, either deciding not to move or renting it out at a loss every month in the hopes that the market will turn around in a few months. And when the turnaround doesn’t happen, we’ll start to see a wave of foreclosures, and that’s when the market will finally enter its long overdue death spiral.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
@jesse: I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but total listings in August over the last few years has been quite close to 4500 each year. We won’t get 4000 this month.
That doesn’t make me want to buy a condo, but it is an oddity that ought not to be brushed aside so casually.
Yalie: interesting. As I have said before, this could be a lot of ‘move up buyers’ who are just not on either side of the market.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:34 pm
Yes more bear prediction turn out wrong *AGAIN*. No one surprised bear about this fact.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:40 pm
I wonder if some realtors are discouraging listings. On one hand, they’d obviously like some business but, on the other hand, they don’t want to upset long-time clients who might get irritated with the lack of buyer interest at this time.
What to watch, I guess, is the new inventory. That could lead the way down, and doesn’t normally appear on the MLS. If my neighbourhood is any indication, lots of new homes are to be completed by summer’s end.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:41 pm
@giggling: Healthcare isn’t so free bear. There’s GST, PST, income tax, property tax, eco fees, bs taxes, carbon taxes, shit taxes, chicken taxes, pork taxes, milk price fixing etc etc. All this make truck expensive to sell in Canada but at least bums get healthcare for free bear.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:44 pm
@VHB:
one of the reasons for low listings is that sheeple believe that its 2008-2009 encore. So they would expect prices to skyrocket once again in 2011. Seeing the last few ups and downs, I am not sure if I can say that with confident that it wont happen this time. But then, I am not buying in this market, no matter how many surprises it brings.
August 27th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
@paulb fan:
I see no reason for any further rebound.
The BOC is in raising mode as opposed to lowering mode which sparked the last (and I do mean LAST) price rally, and consumers are even more tapped out than they were 2 years ago.
I’m quite happy to see sellers pull listings in expectations of a similar rally though. They’re in for a nasty surprise and I look forward to seeing the looks on their faces over the next few months.
August 27th, 2010 at 9:14 pm
Bulls complain that bears are bitter.
Younger bears have every reason to be.
Imagine not being able to ever own a home in Vancouver
just because you were born in the wrong decade.
Even if your salary is in the top 10%.
Do the bulls thing they are geniuses?
I bought in 2003. Sheer luck.
I was starting to make money and wanted to move out.
No once did I think, I better buy now because prices
will be double in 4 years.
Now I am a renter.
Fret not young bears, your time will come.
August 27th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
Hey look, it’s a “Friday Funny”, from the BCREA fact sheet:
Professionalism
REALTORS® are trusted advisors who help consumers make some of the largest purchases of their lives. As professionals, REALTORS® are committed to high standards of customer service, ethics and education. REALTORS® are licensed by the province through the Real Estate Council of British Columbia, as legislated by the Real Estate Services Act.
Every real estate professional who joins a BC real estate board automatically becomes a member of BCREA and of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). These organizations work together to represent REALTORS® on municipal, provincial and national issues, and to provide an array of services. The REALTOR® trademark that identifies a licensed real estate professional who is a members of CREA, and as such to a high standard of professional service and a strict code of ethics.
August 27th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
@Best place on meth: your sure confident for someone who has been wrong so much…..just saying
August 27th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
@VHB: “it is an oddity that ought not to be brushed aside so casually.”
Again, I think the level of distress in the current market is not severe, i.e. listings are low because of the tempting and viable alternative of refinancing. I don’t know if there’s much more to it than that.
Vancouver’s market has shown relative resilience for whatever reasons. A look outside the LM to the rest of the province shows morbidly severe conditions for sellers and the REIC. I think that will be the real story that will set up 2011.
August 27th, 2010 at 11:05 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1688272/
Well it isn’t really. Average prices in the US are now back to 2002 levels, well above the bottom of the late 90′s (there were some major regional busts in the early 90′s). Cities that started the bust late such as NYC and Seattle, are still way overpriced by historical norms. And note Seattle is now 1/2 the price of Vancouver.
The real reason houses aren’t selling in the US is that prices are still too high, and the only way to end the slump in sales is to abandon government attempts to support prices and let them fall to the levels seen in the previous bottom of the late 90′s. Or lower.
August 27th, 2010 at 11:07 pm
@Yalie: “So I suspect that all those people who listed and let their listing expire are holding on to a sinking asset”
Yeah I think there’s some of that. The mini crash of 2008 followed by the strength of 2009 may have perversely solidified the belief that Vancouver real estate is more resilient than it really is. The result would be a larger number of de-listings as owners are unafraid to wait for the next “leg up”.
August 28th, 2010 at 7:38 am
@jesse: “Yeah I think there’s some of that. The mini crash of 2008 followed by the strength of 2009 may have perversely solidified the belief that Vancouver real estate is more resilient than it really is.”
_
_
Yes…it is true that listings may be declining. Maybe they will flood back in the fall, maybe they will not. I’m not too sure it will make much of a difference in price movement either way. S.A.L.E.S. are more important than total listings. Here’s why—
I remember cautioning the bears (back in Feb-March), that while the listings were truly piling up, their effect on the market was not direct or pointed because a large number of them were not truly market participants…
It does not shock me in the least that they are leaving the market…because in a sense they were never there in the first place.
Imagine the stock market…Let’s say Potash corp. 10,000 people decide that it is time to sell. If they all use high limit orders, then price remains unaffected…If they used market orders…then watch out below!!
I would put forward that the listings that have been removed are those top 25% that never really had a chance anyway, and will not make much of a difference regardless. The fact that listings have decreased IMO has more threat to the bears on the M.M. “hype generation” side from the of the equation rather than the actual market fundamentals
August 28th, 2010 at 8:31 am
@“A-Sharp” accountant: “a large number of them were not truly market participants”
That explains why inventory has not been sustained, however the presence of a certain ratio of inventory and sales is still highly negatively correlated to price changes. Owners with “dream pricing” will pull their listings fast if the market is not cooperating so their listings have a relatively small impact on market price due to their brevity.
Owners are more willing to offer “dream pricing” and not budge because:
1) They have a fallback if it doesn’t sell via low financing. (i.e. a favourable BATNA)
2) They have high confidence it’s only a matter of a few short years before they get what they want.
August 28th, 2010 at 8:41 am
in the GTA, buyers and sellers are smelling the coffee now!!
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/r.....ing-market!!
August 28th, 2010 at 9:08 am
The macro is ugly…..truth….in all its glory. A great Sat morn read from Conrad Black.
http://fullcomment.nationalpos.....pocalypse/
August 28th, 2010 at 9:19 am
Everytime Vancouver market take off like olympic luger around fast corner bear try and come up with explanation. Must be stupid fools waiting for better price ha ha. Me so smart they so dumb. Meanwhile bear continue to put life on hold. Your friend who moved to valley enjoying life is the smart one bear.
August 28th, 2010 at 9:35 am
@Yalie:
Yes, my brother is in that boat. Last summer/fall, during so called “bidding wars” (what a nonsense), they could not get the price to break out even after the realtor’s fees, and they took the condo off the market.
August 28th, 2010 at 9:41 am
It’s the monkey economy (as posted by Drachen), that’s why there are so many sellers that are willing to pull their listing when they don’t get the price they want. Monkies will take the chance that in 3 months the market may recover even though it exposes them to greater risk/loss.
Choice #1:
Sell now for a small loss
Choice #2:
Wait 3 months knowing that you could sell at a greater loss but also find a buyer willing to pay your full asking price.
It hasn’t worked out so well lately in any of the other housing markets (US, Europe, Japan, etc.) but choice #2 is the one the majority of people would take according to the video:
http://videosift.com/video/A-m.....al-as-ours
Choice #1 won’t really start to happen until people stop believing the excuses about the HST, hot weather etc. If sales don’t rebound in the fall, that should do it.
August 28th, 2010 at 9:47 am
Sales are down dramatically in North Van
http://www.yattermatters.com/2.....more-20177
Prices seem resillient, but they’ll start giving if sales stay so low. There are always some who have to sell. The poor situation for landlords will force a few hands, in all likelihood. Not to mention hungry realtors who will start pressuring sellers who can’t leave the market.
August 28th, 2010 at 10:07 am
#80 PW, I have mentioned that it will be the greed and avarice of the starving realtors that will be the driving force behind price reductions in as soon as 90 days. This is the average period of time that a person will have saved for, the car payments will be thirty days past due, the visa credit department sends its first warning letter, office managers at RE-MAX are independant franchises and will be grinding the late-pays for the desk fees ( most at min $3000 p/m….many much more because they are ramping up ad space vainly hoping to juice sales)…….and all the other bills that are coming due…including school fees due September 31…….. I’m circling Sept as the month the bear starts to rip at the realtards ass.
August 28th, 2010 at 10:08 am
jesse Says: “The mini crash of 2008 followed by the strength of 2009 may have perversely solidified the belief that Vancouver real estate is more resilient than it really is.”
I would argue the Hong Kong repatriation really set the stage in that regard. Other Canadian CMAs corrected naturally after the early Nineties mini-bubble, Van was spared.
August 28th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
I am tracking condos in downtown over 1000 sq ft and from what I see very little is selling, lots of price reductions and the places that are selling go for 5% to 15% below asking.
The nice part about condos is they are so easy to compare. Once one sells for a lower price or is listed at a lower price it forces the market down. Here is an example:
1188 West Pender (Sapphire building). There are 8 units for sale in the building. Most of the units appear to be vacant with no furniture so I can assume the sellers are “motivated”. A 1315 sq ft place on the 31st floor just dropped the asking price close to 20% from 1.2 million down to 1 million. This puts it at a lower $ per ft than any other unit above the 9th floor (6 other units some as much as 25% higher). Once this place sells it will establish a new lower price point for the building and even the comparable buildings close by in coal harbour. When we see price drops of 20% and a possible sale price even lower, prices start falling very quickly even without the inventory running up. Especially when you see how many of these units are sitting empty. The sellers either have to drop the price or put the place up for rent. If they try to rent them, it will push rents lower which in turn puts pressure on the selling prices (lower yields) and potentially less buyers as rent is even cheaper. With the lack of buyers all we need is a few desperate people to push the market down and down it will go. It looks like we are there now in downtown.
August 28th, 2010 at 1:27 pm
What would it cost to list a property if it didn’t sell, or was withdrawn? i.e. What would a “fishing expedition” cost?
August 28th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
@Anonymous:
To the owner, nothing. Realtors eat the cost of listing.
August 28th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
According to Garth Tuner’s blog CMHC has changed the rules for using basement suite rental income to qualify for a mortgage. Based on a basement renting for $1200, the average SFH home buyer just had their max mortgage reduced by $160,000 to $210,000. That has to have an impact.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
From the blog a home builder explaining the impact (Post title: Charged):
“This is the way that it used to be: you could take the suite income, say it was $1200/month and they would add it to your mortgage qualifications as a $200,000-$250,000 increase in your qualification amount, now what they do is take the amount of the rent: $1200 /month, multiply it by the 12 months in a year and add it to your income, making only an extra $ 40,000+ to your qualification amount.
This is why the market has completely softened. The market is completely dead. Brand new houses in Sooke, down to $299,900 from $399,900, no calls. The market has dried up all due to financing. I talked to 7-10 mortgage brokers and many agents while I was at the Victoria Real Estate Board golf tournament and everyone is scared. Hundreds of foreclosures coming, about 75% of the home owners could not qualify to buy their own houses (especially with suite).”
August 28th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
We are just past “Return to Normal”. Fear is just around the corner!
http://piggington.com/files/im.....review.gif
August 28th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
#85 D, there is no cost to ‘eat’….listing a property on MLS costs zero. Advertising and desk fees are what cost the realtard hard cash. Unless you count the cost of the paper contract at about $1.50 per. The tard pays his MLS fee’s when the property is sold and the agency claws back their percentage.
August 28th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Anybody know what happened to VD? Did she go over to the dark side and buy?
August 28th, 2010 at 2:46 pm
@Devore: “To the owner, nothing.”
It costs owners their time and, for owner-occupiers, inconvenience. For those who rent it out there are hidden costs associated with either compensating the tenant for inconvenience or cleaning up the place to make it presentable. In addition, if the property is sold “as-is” it’s unlikely to garner a premium and more likely a discount.
Listing a property is usually a significant commitment for a few months minimum. That said, I’m becoming more and more convinced Vancouverites’ free time is valued at next to nothing, judging by lineups for “free” events and saving 1 cent on gas. So maybe you have a point!
August 28th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
@fixie guy: “I would argue the Hong Kong repatriation really set the stage in that regard.”
I don’t know if repatriation is the right word but I’d include the set to include India and Taiwan to the dominant immigrant COOs through the ’90s and early 2000s.
Disinflation with perpetually falling interest rates over that span sure didn’t hurt either.
August 28th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
@Renting: A bunch of us addressed and analyzed this a few month ago. Check out the threads from just before and after April 19th.
August 28th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
@jesse: The big one is the line-ups at the border. If people placed a value on their time (never mind the fuel costs), they’d be shopping at local mall instead
…and then there’s the half their lives rotting in rush hour traffic so they can own a house in Chilliwack…
August 28th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....58218.html
LOL LOL LOL
At the price, buddy, you will be flexible and bending over for the pitbulls guarding my grow-op. An “unintrusive landlord”, for sure.
August 28th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
the=that
August 28th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
The foregone conclusion that the USD is waning as a single dominant reserve currency obviates that future of rising intrest rates. The massive debt thus far has only been supported by the need to trade in USD…that is no longer the case. Competition for investment will force us TO RAISE RATES RATES FASTER AS BUSINESSES ARE NO LONGER FORCED TO BUY TREASURIES FOR TRADE. Even if China holds rates steady the voracious need for investment here to support the debt will drive rates up to attract international cash.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/182a.....abdc0.html
August 28th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
USA: Mortgage brokers are becoming a vanishing breed
http://rss.usatoday.mlogic3g.c.....0AD99.wap1
August 28th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
You aren’t using the word obviate correctly and it makes this sentence mean the opposite of your intent. Writing this makes me feel like a bit of a douche, but I don’t know, I feel like it’s like pointing out when someone has something in their teeth.
August 28th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
Here’s a funny/sad anecdote:
I’m visiting family over the Summer break. A friend of my grandpa’s says that she is paying her kids mortgages right now since they are having a harder time getting a new job. After saying this she added,
“But it’s a good mortgage. It’s a 40 year mortgage.”
Yup.
August 28th, 2010 at 11:53 pm
I had a brief exchange with Conrad Black today regarding the sad state of the Canadian media today…..I thought I’d share his response.
“Many thanks for your kind message. One does what one can, and I do think there are a number of fine writers in the National Post, including George Jonas, Bob Fulford, David Frum, and Rex Murphy, but the ranks of journalism generally are crowded with people who can’t think and can’t write. It was thoughtful of you to send your email, which was gratefully received. My best wishes to you. Yours sincerely, Conrad Black”
“People who can’t think and can’t write”….that really says it all.
August 29th, 2010 at 1:34 am
Microsoft is moving out of its MCDC in Richmond to Downtown Vancouver. Richmond’s poor transportation and lack of rental accommodations are cited by one source.
http://www.richmond-news.com/b.....story.html
Microsoft moves out of Richmond
Office vacancy rate rising to 26%
August 29th, 2010 at 2:07 am
CULT index down again
August 29th, 2010 at 8:05 am
Here’s the laugh of the day…an e-mail from a realtor.
The Real Truth About The Harmonized Sales Tax ( HST) And How It Is Affecting Our Real Estate Market!!
Welcome to the latest edition of my program, “Two Minute Real Estate Topics with Jamie” !! Periodically, I send you valuable and informative real estate videos!! Each session is approximately 2 minutes or less!! They are designed to give you information, that will literally make you thousands of $$$ when the time comes, to buy or sell real estate. So just click on the link below and enjoy.
If you know of anyone that could use this information, please pass this link along to them!!
Just Click On The LinkBelow To View This Week’s Topic!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PviKiOTy5E
August 29th, 2010 at 8:36 am
Conrad Black is a convicted crook. The writers he pumps up all happen to be right wing zealots like him. The National Post and the Van Sun excetra were all owned by Convict Black. He made tonnes of money pumping real estate when he owned the papers, so I don’t know why the hell you’re quoting him.
August 29th, 2010 at 8:44 am
@vandan: Conrad Black is a convicted crook. The writers he pumps up all happen to be right wing zealots like him. The National Post and the Van Sun excetra were all owned by Convict Black. He made tonnes of money pumping real estate when he owned the papers, so I don’t know why the hell you’re quoting him.
==========
Because Conrad bilked many working stiffs out of their pensions, screwed over many more and busted a few unions over the years. These are the things that give Real Paul wet dreams.
August 29th, 2010 at 8:55 am
Uh oh bears, not a good weekend.
AgentWill say sales up this week, listings down, MOI down. Time for new metric bear to prove market crashing. Maybe not everybody run in fear from housing market.
August 29th, 2010 at 9:08 am
@Boombust: great topic! So to summarize, I avoid HST by
- not buying new
- not using a Realtor
Sounds good to me.
August 29th, 2010 at 9:17 am
Hello fellow bloggers just returned from my second week this summer in beautiful Osoyoos. The family and friends all had an amazing time but talk about dead. We have been going there for 5 summers and I have never seen virtually every hotel on “hotel row” with vacancy on a Sat night. I don’t know if people are travelling less or the “Alberta oil money” has stopped flowing but it was dead. Chatting with an owner of a 15 unit building I learned that Pentiction is hurting so much that hotel prices in some places are down 50%.
I did my usual drive around and noticed even more inventory and a bunch of “new price” signs. There were even two projects offering “blow out pricing” The entire area from Kelowna to Osoyoos has gone no bid. There are simply no buyers at virtually any price and inventory keeps grinding higher.
There is a waterfront place that we considered buying as a group in 2008. The owner had it listed at $1.3K but we were told by another Realtard to offer $1.1K. We did the math and decided that it was just way too much for a place we would use collectively 14 weeks a year especially in light of the fact one can rent a similar place for $3,000 per week and give back the keys (like we just did) Anyway, last summer the price had dropped to $1.0K and we were told by the Realtard that the owner of the empty house had turned down two offers for $950K. This spring (after it had been on the market for two years) the price was dropped to $900K. The price was dropped Aug 1 of this year to $829K and still no buyers ($1.3K to $829k) and still no buyers!
That has to put a chill into the retirement plans of many a boomer who bought there in 1982 for $67,000 and plans on listing it for $1.2K! The reality of the pricing has set in and people are realizing that the prices have just gone past the ability for even groups of people to pay for a 1980′s vacation home.
In my opinion after watching prices there since 2005, from the peak in 2007 prices are down (unoffically of course as there are ZERO sales) 20-25% and show an increasing trend downwards. There are many projects that were built since 2007 such as Walnut Beach where every buyer is underwater big time.
The whole of the Okanagan dropped in 2008 like Vancouver but did not bounce back at all. The area has gone no bid but unlike Vancouver the Realturds are telling us it will bounce back because:
Warmest climate in Canada
Retirees from Eastern Canada are moving here
The growth of agri and wine tourism
No making any more land
Rich Albertans will be back when oil hits $140 again
What a joke. Simply, prices have gone too high and are coming down.
That’s it.
August 29th, 2010 at 9:21 am
“Maybe not everybody run in fear from housing market.”
There is a saying often attributed to P.T. Barnum that “there is a fool born every minute”. If we adjust for population growth, I guess there’s one born every second now. It’s all good for the bears.
August 29th, 2010 at 9:27 am
For many of the new readers here (and bulls of course) I pose the question:
If you believe that Vancouver real estate will continue to grow in excess of long term inflation at say 4% who do you think will buy the houses when a 500 sq ft Yaletown condo is $700K and a tear down on the West side is $6.0 mil?
I mean seriously, do the math and take todays prices and use a 4% compound rate of return for the next say 10 or 20 years. The numbers are ludicrious even to the most bullish bull.
The concept of forever rising real estate is a myth and only works if you have a population that lives forever. Eventually people need to sell as they die and if no one can buy what they are selling prices cannot continue to go up. Its so simple yet people try to make it so hard with smoke screens.
Seriously take out your calculator and run the numbers it might surprise you.
August 29th, 2010 at 9:28 am
@Vansanity:
Really? That’s not what official stat say:
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Portugal
Portugal miss boom, not like Spain. Then only down small amount and now recovering. But that inconvenient for bear, this statement better:
What silly hyperbole bear. The sky is not falling. But your statement better for groupthink bitter bear blog. Guarantee +20 vote up, make bear feel good.
August 29th, 2010 at 9:43 am
@SuperSmartBull:
Oh goodness me, it’s SSB
with another nonsense post
he’s always at it constantly
the bull who yaps the most
every day so valiantly
he blows against the winds
even if inevitably
foreclosure is how it ends
but take heart oh gentle bull
if the bills run overdue
there’s free wifi at the coffee shop
and bathrooms for you too
this place just wouldn’t be the same without you, best of luck with your investment!
August 29th, 2010 at 9:54 am
I find it difficult to believe anyone still quotes Conrad Black.
The guy who said Canada was for losers, gave up his Canadian citizenship, robs share-holders and then tries to come here to serve his sentence.
The guy’s ego is beyond measuring. He says he worked hard for his success. I guess that means being born wealthy and denying others their rights.
His buddies at Macleans and The National Pork have done their best to rehabilitate him with their pathetic ass-licking editorials and putting him and his equally grasping wife on their covers. Lets hope even Harper has enough back-bone to keep him out.
August 29th, 2010 at 10:24 am
Interesting, the detached and attached are so different. Detached prices are shooting up and attached are shooting down. It suggests relatively few FTBs which is probably because they can’t get financing.
The new rules on how suites are calculated isn’t bringing down SFH prices which suggests to me that those buyers must have lots of equity and don’t worry so much about financing.
So I would guess that most activity is boomers moving up and down in the upper part of the market. There is even a higher sales/list for SFH. Not sure how sustainable that is.
August 29th, 2010 at 10:30 am
@Dan in Calgary: “it’s all good for the bears.”
Indeed it is. Each buyer today is one less buyer tomorrow.
August 29th, 2010 at 10:32 am
Here are the stats for the Okanagan in case anyone is interested:
http://www.omreb.com/page.php?sectionID=2
There is about 25…YES 25 months of inventory…talk about a bigtime crash.
August 29th, 2010 at 10:47 am
jesse,
What do you think is going on with SFH? Its back to peak prices unlike attached. It seems like small part of our society is living in its own, strange little world.
August 29th, 2010 at 11:26 am
The West Vancouver market has entered the Twilight Zone. It takes 74 days to sell (5 MOI) but prices are skyrocketing. It almost seems criminal…as in fraud. Hello, CRA?
http://www.yattermatters.com/2.....more-20243
August 29th, 2010 at 11:38 am
@G:
I know a few people trying to sell in the Okanagan. So far, nothing has been sold yet. One person I know has a townhouse for sale, no price reductions. Unfortunately, the price it’s at right now she will just break even after paying off the mortgage and paying the realtor. Oh and it’s rented out and the rent is less than the mortgage every month. Another couple have reduced their prices slightly but nothing to get excited about. Every time I go to Kelowna these days it’s all the same old houses on the market with the same old prices. Yawn. When will this movie get more action?
August 29th, 2010 at 11:39 am
Man, talk about knee jerk Liberal hysteria over Conrad Black. He was officially villified by the Liberals because he was rightly critical over the insane policies of the Chretien government…so who wasn’t…except the ass licking Ontario wankers that sat back as Canada was sucked down the toilet.
1) Black never busted a union, all the papers he owned were and are union shops, did he rationalize the shop floor to try and make the papers profitable….yes…every business man would..no differant…do you think that a newspaper is a civil service union…sacrosanct from market forces?
2) He never screwed any pensioners ( this is hysteria drummed up by the Liberal haters who set their hair on fire whenever Black lambasted them with the truth), he was convicted of over compensating himself 2.5 million from revenue and that conviction has since been overturned. The standing conviction still before the courts is a technical argument between the overzealous prosection and the defense as to how not to insult a prosecution team that is also running for political office. He is expected to be aquitted on all charges. If you understood the corporate process, you would laugh at the antics of all parties concerned during the Hollinger directors coup attempt, there was in fact, nothing illegal, this has finally been proven at court. The fact that American jurisprudence can convict the innocent should be of no suprise to anyone. The fact that Black has never been charged of any crime in Canada should underscore the fact that Black was a hated political enemy, not a criminal. However, the Liberal smere campaign obiously dragged many slack jawed opinions towards believing the government of the time and the bullshit they spewed as they crowed over the body of a victim layed low.
3)Canada was a place for losers under the Liberal Party, and it would become a place for losers if that scum were ever to gain power again. Thanks but no one wants to pay 100% taxes to fund give4aways that benefit the civil service pigs and the leaches who benefit from Liberal policies.
4) Black had every right under the Charter to accept dual citizenship…..hundreds of thousands have dual citizenship and Cretian never stepped in an made a point of denying that right to anyone except Black…out of spite for Blacks open critisism of the Liberal wacko’s.
This is a comment about the truth and less about the one individual who still causes the Liberal cunts to set their hair on fire. The Liberals had set themselves up as a monarchy, they manipulated the number of seats in government towards there own powerbase and castigated all who opposed them ( BC, ALTA, SASK) and called us crazy for deying them. They supported other governments in exile, like the Tamil Tigers and the Babar Khalsa, African dictators and Caribbean criminals…any group who could control the immigrant voting blocks in the phony contituencies that they set up as fiefdoms for the Liberal lickspittles in southern Ontario. The ‘balanced’ a budget that had driven canada into technical bankruptcy in the 80′s by tripling income taxes and fees for services while continuing to pay off the unions and build empires out of crown corporations and individual ministries. Look….I could go on about the truth behind the context…but the fact is that the Liberal Party lynched Black because he was not a Liberal supporter…bottom line.
August 29th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
@Patiently Waiting: SFH medians/averages are IMO a hamfisted way of tracking the market. I keep my eyes on condos as their prices will almost definitely revert to a simple value equation based on rents and expenses.
August 29th, 2010 at 12:37 pm
Realpaul- your arguments may have more weight if they weren’t sprinkled with such foul language. Maybe you think it adds to your case or makes you sound hip.
It is clear that you are not the anti-establishment crusader you pretend to be. You clearly worship the elite and have bought into their propaganda.
The National Post, Macleans-owners, Canwest, Black, Apers etc. they own this country. The fact that one of them gets convicted worries them all. It is no wonder that we didn’t convict him. Canada looks at White Collar crime like a petty crime not worthy of any resources.
The biggest mining fraud in history was in Canada – Bre-x. Not one person has gone to court for it.
However if it makes you feel better to worship a shallow person like Conrad Black, go for it. He is only out on appeal due to the huge legal fees he has spent. Would that we could all buy justice in such a way.
August 29th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
@G: Adding up all the sales and inventory numbers, I get just over 18 MOI.
August 29th, 2010 at 12:45 pm
@Patiently Waiting: The small number of sales in such an expensive market make the median and average price pretty useless in a MOM context.
August 29th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
@Devore:
You are probably right about the 18 MOI. Their stats include lots which are running at about 75+ MOI.
August 29th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Realpaul, don’t pay too much attention to Frank the girl guide.
Your expletives, are just fine.
When we talk about the pimps,they deserve nothing more.
August 29th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
I was wrong when I said West Van had 5 MOI for SFH earlier. I thought I was looking at weekly stats. West Van prices are actually skyrocketing on 22 MOI :^O Totally insane. Of course, as paulb said, the small number of sales make the stats wonky. And, as jessie said, SFH prices are harder to analyze than condos.
August 29th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
Hey Realpaul I think you are right it is all a Liberal conspiracy against that upstanding citizen Black.
Oh wait a minute it was under Bush that he was charged. But you are probably right nevertheless, Chretien probably called Bush and asked him for a favor.
Oh wait Chretien refused to listen to Bush when he asked us to invade Iraq, making Bush very angry – and saving hundreds of Canadian soldiers lives.
Sorry buddy, better get that tin-foil hat back on and come up with another conspiracy, one that actually fits in with historial events.
August 29th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
#122 F, I know the Liberals cringe when I out them as ‘cunts’…. I calls ‘em as I see’s ‘em….the fact that everyone refers to the Liberal Party as ‘cunts’ in the lingua franca of colloquial speech seems to offend no one…except the Liberal cunts…..its not a matter of how ‘hip’ I am…. I speak the language of and for the average Canadian with whom I speak every day. In fact I’m toning it down……most people I speak to…from 15 tp 90 are genuinely pissed at the hardships the Liberal Party and the union pigs have placed upon them.
The reason why Black was never charged with any crime in Canada was for the simple reason that he committed no crime…..get off the Liberal Hysteria Wagon. As he was the most hated man in the Liberal Party universe..if he had been guilty of anything…even spitting on the sidewalk…would have garnered at least a charge. The fact was that all the Chretian cunts could do was to harrass the man and deny him the same rights as any other Canadian citizen. I hardly think you can justify yourself by saying that rich people are bad and Buzz Hargrove is good…typical sloptrough regurgitation.
Bringing up Bre-X …….Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahah….again….no criminal activity proved by the courts…just speculation run rampant and a lot of greasy greedy little pigs getting burned……you had to be a complete idiot to fall for the Bre-X scam….do you think that the stock market is some kind of guaranteed income scam doled out by social workers???????
Look…heres something 99% of the public does not understand about the equity markets…..companies raise cash for their buisness ventures…not to make money for the public…..the idea that the a profit is made by the speculator is secondary. There are no guarantee’s that a mining company will ever produce anything. When the sheeple were diving into Bre-X the shareholders were already selling….where do you think the shares come from? The public didn’t get defrauded…..promotion based on speculation is common in the mining business…if you don’t understand that business then you should never ever buy a share….but I know you will…because all the pretentious little cunts who are being made rich on the back of the taxpayer are greedy little pigs.
August 29th, 2010 at 1:21 pm
Scratch realpaul off the potentially coherent list. RP, the ‘Liberuls’ and ‘Conservatards’ can both be idiots driving the country to ruin. You think Harper’s insane stimulation ON TAXPAYER DOLLARS of the housing market foretells a glorious future for the federation? Destroying the Census will guide us forward Christian soldier? We’re screwed, blinkered Fox cheerleaders (gawd, in praise of Convict Black of all things) huzzahing all the way down the drain.
From a quick WikiP check, after renouncing Canada as a third world socialist dump in 2001:
“Regaining citizenship
In September 2006, The Globe and Mail reported Black was taking steps to regain Canadian citizenship. He may have desired this to qualify for prisoner exchange and benefit from Canadian early release policies or to enable him to cross the border following a conviction.”
Liberul early release policies? Lol, those are a hero’s principles. Send the craven little biz-bitch back.
August 29th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
I am beginning to think Realpaul actually IS Conrad Black ( and probably half a dozen other monikers on this blog)
‘I calls ‘em as you sees ‘em’ you do that big boy, and then green thumb your own psycho dribble.
The sickest thing to come out of this Black affair is how a guy who used his papers to personally attack and smear people, is now playing the rich little victim- disgusting really.
The best thing about it is Black is suing Henry Kissinger! Henry was his best fellow right wing mentor and was brought on the board by Black and eventually decided Black had his hand in the till too many times. Who can you trust these days?
Realpaul -remember when you say your chants to Lord Black the giver of goodness, it works best if you have a hundred dollar bill hanging out of your mouth and you have your boot on the hands of a union worker.
August 29th, 2010 at 2:30 pm
@frank:
Well, fecalpaul is almost certainly not Conrad Black, but he definitely uses more than a few different monikers on this site, such as “chip”.
August 29th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
Just came back from a little visit with the folks. One of their contemporaries just came out of retirement; he had only retired two months, because they cannot sell their home. He is in his late 60′s, has had some recent health scares and is going back to a boss that fired him in the past.
August 29th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
Just came back from a little visit with the folks. One of their contemporaries just came out of retirement, he had only retired two months, because they cannot sell their home. He is in his late 60′s, has had some recent health scares and is going back to a boss that fired him in the past.
August 29th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
I know this is very off topic – but I hope someone here can help. I found a craiglist apt rental ad that turned out to be a scammer, so I posted a ripoff report online. Does anyone know how I can remove this report from search engine results?
August 29th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
McLovin Update from the trenches #77
I mentioned a month ago that my buddy listed his very unique show home type house in Maple Ridge and got a subject offer but after literally hundreds of showings no back up. Yesterday he got a call from his Realturd to tell him the the subject offer is dead as the person who made it could not sell his own house.
Against my advice he is taking it off the market to “wait it out”.
August 29th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Price of detached going up, attached going down… May be it is because one cannot develop a 1000 plants grow up in an attached dwelling
August 29th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
@oneangryslav2:
“Well, fecalpaul is almost certainly not Conrad Black, but he definitely uses more than a few different monikers on this site, such as “chip”.”
And maybe he’s been going through your garbage at night and started following you to work. Look for the old Chevy Caprice with the ‘Nixon for President’ bumpersticker.
This blog could do with more data points and fewer paranoid hotheads.
August 29th, 2010 at 5:26 pm
Hey bears, market crashing. I was in France and prices were at least 90% off. Friend of a friend was selling thier old baguette factory owner home they buy in 2005 for $500K Euro. They list for $95.99 Euro and no offers. It has been on market for 485 days and Le Realtor told them they should try to pay someone to take their place. Then place will be 110% off peak price. Expect same in Vancouver bears, pretty soon bulls will be paying bears to take property.
August 29th, 2010 at 5:37 pm
@SuperSmartBull: What happened to your mangled english writing style?
Personally I think you’re funnier when you drop the fake accent and write normally like this.
August 29th, 2010 at 5:51 pm
This is actually pretty funny, and contains more than a glimmer of truth. Let’s face it, some of our bearish comments are often just as outlandish as our bull friends (myself included). I hope this one doesn’t get voted down. Actually, I don’t know why SSB gets voted down so much – he definitely makes this blog more worth visiting, and it would be pretty boring without the odd bull/troll comment.
Besides, I look forward to reading his Lereah-esque comments as we watch this market tumble over the next few years.
August 29th, 2010 at 5:58 pm
Observing todays frenzied Liberal meatpuppets dance at the slighest provocation . The obsessive Liberal mania of mutual masturbation and regurgitating the Liberal media message certainly attracts the freaks, the retards and the all fucked up eh?, but in toto..its a bunch of twisted off center perverts that lost an election or two and are having a circle jerk because they can’t think or speak for themselves. The truth will set you free girls.
And BTW Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahha!!!
August 29th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
SuperSmartBull
“Then place will be 110% off peak price. Expect same in Vancouver bears, pretty soon bulls will be paying bears to take property.”
The scenario is not too far off the mark. So many home debtors, with huge mortgages (and there are lots) may soon be advertising:
“Nothing down, take over the large assumable mortgage, no qualifications”
Bad credit, no credit, new to country, no problem, and bankruptcy – we can work with that too.
PS. Good tenants in basement, want to stay, the pit bulls are family friendly.
August 29th, 2010 at 6:07 pm
Singapore Cuts Loan Limit to 70% for Owners of Multiple Homes
“The government’s objective is to ensure a stable and sustainable property market where prices move in line with economic fundamentals.”
Whaaaa….government intervening in the housing market to protect it’s citizenry?
Only in the Orient, you say?….. PITY!
August 29th, 2010 at 7:38 pm
@realpaul:
I enjoy wrapping my fish in free copies of the Nazi Post as much as the next guy, but when when it comes to Conrad Black I have to say I’m a little disappointed that he wasn’t murdered in prison.
Did you have a nice chat with him? Did you ask Lord Black if he held on to the soap tightly with both hands every evening? Were your references to fecal matter returned in kind by an appreciative and laughing convicted felon who ran one of the largest mainstream media empires in the history of the world?
Wait, I thought you despised the mainstream media more than anything.
If you happen to chat with David Frum anytime soon, please thank him for his help in starting the war in Iraq and tell him Satan says hi and will see him soon.
August 29th, 2010 at 7:51 pm
realpaul Says: “…Liberal media message certainly attracts the freaks, the retards and the all fucked up…”
Oh, the Freudian irony.
August 29th, 2010 at 8:52 pm
@chip:
Coming from you, I’ll take that as a compliment. In addition, I admit that I was wrong for claiming that you and realpaul were the same person. I misread one of his posts, which ultimately lead me to make an incorrect inference. For that, I apologize.
August 29th, 2010 at 9:59 pm
@paulb.:
Richmond, Burnaby and North Vancouver are also up or holding steady. I can’t recall, didn’t prices fall dramatically in June? Now they’ve rebounded? I realize that the sample size is smaller but there is enough data here for different suburbs to suggest that prices are holding their own.
August 29th, 2010 at 10:42 pm
@Anonymous: paulb was talking specifically about West Van which has been an outlyer for quite a while now.
Anyhow, don’t worry, a massive wave of listings will hit the market in the next few weeks and prices will start falling.
August 29th, 2010 at 10:43 pm
See the latest TIME magazine cover yet?
‘Rethinking Homeownership’
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1gf
A fine bookend match for the 2005 man-hugging-house cover.
August 29th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
@vreaa: And a good contrary indicator that American prices may be nearing the bottom. I didn’t expect that either with the backlog of foreclosures, but it is looking increasingly plausible. The Zombie Banks can keep foreclosed houses off the market indefinitely, courtesy of Uncle Sam and the FASB. There is no pressure for the banks to sell, and many of the empty houses have been wrecked by squatters now anyways. It could be a long slow drag along the bottom, maybe for five years.