Holy Sales Tumble!

Inventory posted some more interesting stats: New unit sales in Vancouver West during August for the last 15 years – we’re just about to the half way point for this month, but that number looks low!

August Van. West – NEW units sales (homes, condo, townhouses)
1994 = 53
1995 = 72
1996 = 148
1997 = 220
1998 = 72
1999 = 144
2000 = 57
2001 = 90
2002 = 56
2003 = 89
2004 = 85
2005 = 138
2006 = 99
2007 = 96
2008 = 30
2009 = 94
2010 = 6 ***Aug 17

110 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
real_professional
10 years ago

The comeback in prices was due to record government stimulus packages throughout the world which created an asset bubble in places such as Canada and China – and cheap money in the form of low interest rates which allowed for even more extending of individual debt levels – finally, from a psychological point, the "dead cat bounce" as it is called is common after a sell off on an asset class. People simply believe something is "cheap" since it is lower in price than it was before and jump in, even though it still may be "expensive", just less so than it was before – this is more often than not followed by a price drop. All in all, real-estate got lucky over the last year, a large amount of government spending, low interest rates, and human stupidity merged together… Read more »

ToddM
ToddM
10 years ago

Forgive me for having a bad memory – why was sale in 2008 weak and what fueled the comeback in prices?

Real_professional
Real_professional
10 years ago

What will happen in Vancouver, unfortunately, is what always happens. Housing prices will drop, you will have a severe feedback effect on the labor market, and all of those people that thought they were entitled to high paying salaries off of real-estate will then collectively whine for a handout. Real estate agents will hopefully just erupt into flames as people realize that they aren't really of any use in this day and age. Needless to say, the government will put into place programs to support these individuals because despite being talentless, they are voters. I find that this is most true in the trades: During the housing boom trades people asked for extremely high salaries (Even un-skilled workers like painters and blue-collar truck driving types) despite having the lowest amount of education, but when the boom is over they will… Read more »

Starving Artist
10 years ago

Nothing surprising. RE is always sticky on the way down because of "emotional investment" or attachment to paper gains. But two things are always true:

1. Gains aren't gains until you sell

2. Someone always has to sell

YLTNBoomerang
YLTNBoomerang
10 years ago

I've been watching townhouses in FC North, Coal Harbour, and downtown and just don't get what I'm seeing other than sellers pricing at what they think their places are worth rather than market value. For example, v827883 just listed at $1111/sqft. While this is a nice location, it hasn't been updated since it was built 13 years ago and in fact is priced at the same level as the most overpriced townhouses in Vancouver – The Erikson!!! The last time this listed was in 2008 for $928K and no work has been done since then; I guess the flipper wants to make some dough. Anyway, the larger picture that I'm seeing is that over the past month there has been the odd new listing that has offset any de-lists and only a couple price reductions. It is as if the… Read more »

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

the Chinese are coming to rescue the Vancouver bubble!!
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/90548-

realpaul
realpaul
10 years ago

Since it seems that the local pimps are acting like drunks with a nasty hangover I thought I'd add a post that is all over the US news today. http://www.cnbc.com/id/38744090 All about how the 'green shoots' were all just artificial turf planted to fool the unknowing and unsuspecting into thinking that it was safe to buy buy buy when really…..well lets say that it was all bullshit. Things are worse than ever. Stimulus in Canada worked in the same way…except in reverse…. we had the money and the propaganda campaigns run simultaneously. Of course it couldn't last, there just isn't enough bodies to keep a pyramid scheme going. The herring about 'needing tens of thousands of units 'for immigration' is of course all rubbish because it sources raw data that fails to recognize the simple things….like family units, refugees and… Read more »

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

Several Canadian banks cut mortgage rates

' The posted five-year closed mortgage rate, for instance, will fall to 5.49 per cent annually at Royal Bank (TSX:RY), Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO), Scotiabank (TSX:BNS), CIBC (TSX:CM) and Laurentian Bank (TSX:LB). '

http://money.ca.msn.com/savings-debt/yourmoney/ar

fixie guy
fixie guy
10 years ago

Anonymous Says: "And while you’re waiting 7-8 years for that to happen, you’ll have dropped another $250K in rent."

Really bunky? You have markets in this correction taking 7-8 years as illustrative examples?

Inventory
Inventory
10 years ago

Aug New Unit Sales

1994 = 371

1995 = 357

1996 = 390

1997 = 412

1998 = 280

1999 = 364

2000 = 215

2001 = 250

2002 = 193

2003 = 416

2004 = 272

2005 = 560

2006 = 389

2007 = 385

2008 = 176

2009 = 383

2010 = 96 ***Aug 17

Jimmy
Jimmy
10 years ago

"And while you’re waiting 7-8 years for that to happen, you’ll have dropped another $250K in rent."

How much would you drop in interest payments over the 7-8 years?

How about property taxes, maintenance?

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

@No Longer Looking:

"If this market corrects to fundamentals its going down double that, at least. Definitely over 50%, probably more."

And while you're waiting 7-8 years for that to happen, you'll have dropped another $250K in rent.

Jimmy
Jimmy
10 years ago

St. Joseph Pewter Home Sale Kit

http://www.discountcatholicproducts.com/-St-Josep

Jimmy
Jimmy
10 years ago

Keeping An Eye on The Pimps Says:

August 17th, 2010 at 9:14 pm

@Jenny the Troll:

Jenny, do you have a link on sourcing the St.Joseph kit?

——————————————

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/holy-pos

Johnnyrent
Johnnyrent
10 years ago

@giggling: I'm with you Giggling. We seem to have an endless supply of Greater Fools here. But then, I envision lemmings running off a cliff and it realy doesn't matter how many there are. The splatter effect will be more or less the same.

Alum
Alum
10 years ago

@jesse:

jesse, it is simple:

Buy when everyone is selling

Sell when everyone is buying

Unfortunately most of us are trained to buy when everyone is buying. !

A Non Mouse
A Non Mouse
10 years ago

Layne Staley? Really? This guy's whiter than white. No Asian dude I know quotes Layne Staley. Give it up meat bag.

giggling
giggling
10 years ago

@paulb.:

108 sales today.

Who are those people?

Do they REALLY have to buy?

Do they know something I don't?

Are they laundering money?

Are they getting pleasure from self-mutilation?

Are we ever going to run out of fools in this godforsaken town???

No Longer Looking
No Longer Looking
10 years ago

Could we go from asset deflation to asset elimination? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-1092803… Meet Kelly Sutton, a spiky-haired 22-year-old software engineer with thick-rimmed glasses and an empty apartment in Brooklyn's Williamsburg neighbourhood – a hotbed for New York's young, early adopters of new technology. Mr Sutton is the founder of CultofLess.com, a website which has helped him sell or give away his possessions – apart from his laptop, an iPad, an Amazon Kindle, two external hard drives, a "few" articles of clothing and bed sheets for a mattress that was left in his newly rented apartment. This 21st-Century minimalist says he got rid of much of his clutter because he felt the ever-increasing number of available digital goods have provided adequate replacements for his former physical possessions. "I think cutting down on physical commodities in general might be a trend of my generation… Read more »

ReadyToPop
ReadyToPop
10 years ago

“Thank goodness rates are as low as they are. If we were seeing significant increases in interest rates, it would disastrous for real estate prices,”

<a href="http://www.financialpost.com/news/features/Home+sales+tumble/3405783/story.html&quot; rel="nofollow">Home sales tumble

What a novel idea…raise interest rates to give savers what they really deserve compared to inflation and make housing more affordable for young couples at the same time! Oops, I think that I said the exact opposite of the above….my bad….RTP

Keeping An Eye on Th
Keeping An Eye on Th
10 years ago

@Jenny the Troll:

Jenny, do you have a link on sourcing the St.Joseph kit?

I think I will have hit the jackpot if I can get the exclusive Canadian distributorship.

Do you know if the kits are available in Cantonese and Mandarin?

I would like to get tree for a lady and tree for her huzbund.

And a box for Bill Slut

No Longer Looking
No Longer Looking
10 years ago

@Real_Professional: "should correct downwards of approximately 20 to 30%."

What you are saying seems to contradict this prediction. This what you say to homoaners to keep them from freaking out or to the media so they don't dismiss you.

If this market corrects to fundamentals its going down double that, at least. Definitely over 50%, probably more.

midnite_toker
midnite_toker
10 years ago

@supersmartbear: lane change with Chinese sun visor ! Thats gold !

rp1
rp1
10 years ago

@Real_Professional: The fundamentals have been horrible for quite some time. They were arguably worse in Summer 2007. The only difference is that the market is now boxed in with low rates. A 50k homebuyer grant could probably reignite the bubble though.

anonymous
anonymous
10 years ago

oh come on. lighten up on Alum. (S)He was clearly joking.

That's the problem when people talk about money — everyone loses their sense of humour.

Except it seems SuperSmartBull who never heard a fact that (s)he didn't misunderestimate.

What did the sage WarrenBuffettBull say? When you look around the poker table for the schmuck and you can't find him, the schmuck is you?