The MLS under seige
It’s not just buyers who want a better system than the MLS. – a group of large brokerages including Century 21, Royal LePage and ReMax are meeting with the intent of building an alternative to realtor.ca that is more technically advanced.
The meeting comes a day after Yahoo Canada announced it will offer listings on its main search page using database and real-time search technology from Toronto-based Zoocasa.com.
Zoocasa has been criticized by the industry for scraping listings off the MLS, but Zoocasa president Butch Langlois said it is operating within the industry’s rules, with each agent voluntarily offering to post their listings in exchange for the advanced features offered on the site.
It’s a slick offering that is comparable to services in the United States such as Zillow, which has become a major hub for listings and a major headache for the brokerages that used to control the flow of information. “People have embraced the site but we need to increase awareness that Realtor.ca isn’t the only place to go when looking for a home,” Mr. Langlois said.
While Zoocasa, backed by Rogers Communications Inc., (RCI.B-T37.52-0.19-0.50%) is the highest profile competitor to take on the MLS to date, there are several private networks under development across the country that want to compete with MLS.
The brokerages intend to build their own site that would run parallel to Realtor.ca and be governed by the same rules, using listings from their offices across the country. They would be able to control what features are offered, and upgrade the technology as they see fit without having to go through CREA, the trade association that represents the country’s 100,000 agents.
“We support organized real estate and this has nothing to do with pulling out of what they are doing,” Mr. Lawby said. “But the consumer wants to see as much data as they can and we want to make sure they are able to do that effectively.”
Will the MLS be overturned as the dominate listings engine in Canada? Read the full article over at the Globe and Mail.
Thanks ready to pop for the link.
August 30th, 2010 at 5:38 pm 1
One more day to go, month end sales will be down 38%
Aug
1994 = 2159
1995 = 2326
1996 = 2141
1997 = 2096
1998 = 1589
1999 = 2002
2000 = 1805
2001 = 2659
2002 = 2558
2003 = 3413
2004 = 2570
2005 = 3800
2006 = 3092
2007 = 3493
2008 = 1611
2009 = 3496
2010 = 2108 ***Aug 30
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August 30th, 2010 at 5:40 pm 2
All time low! The market for new condo's have crashed.
August Van. West – New Condo sales
1994 = 32
1995 = 40
1996 = 120
1997 = 198
1998 = 59
1999 =123
2000 = 49
2001 = 77
2002 = 49
2003 = 71
2004 = 73
2005 = 105
2006 = 87
2007 = 74
2008 = 24
2009 = 60
2010 = 16 ***Aug 30
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August 30th, 2010 at 5:43 pm 3
There were only 4 new houses sold at Van. West this month. Last year, 19 was sold.
August Van. West – NEW units sales (home, townhouse, condo)
1994 = 53
1995 = 72
1996 = 148
1997 = 220
1998 = 72
1999 = 144
2000 = 57
2001 = 90
2002 = 56
2003 = 89
2004 = 85
2005 = 138
2006 = 99
2007 = 96
2008 = 30
2009 = 94
2010 = 22 ***Aug 30
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August 30th, 2010 at 5:50 pm 4
Its a record breaking month!
Aug Unit sales Port Coquitlam
1994 = 104
1995 = 103
1996 = 85
1997 = 88
1998 = 67
1999 = 86
2000 = 66
2001 = 86
2002 = 85
2003 = 111
2004 = 80
2005 = 116
2006 = 106
2007 = 139
2008 = 64
2009 = 117
2010 = 52 ***Aug 30
Aug Unit sales Maple Ridge
1994 = 104
1995 = 196
1996 = 141
1997 = 157
1998 = 146
1999 = 128
2000 = 121
2001 = 206
2002 = 186
2003 = 268
2004 = 158
2005 = 222
2006 = 211
2007 = 169
2008 = 108
2009 = 196
2010 = 99 ***Aug 30
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August 30th, 2010 at 5:56 pm 5
Only one more week until the post-Labour Day fall season arrives!
Will listings pick up? Or will we continue to see total inventory drop?
We will know soon.
But man, those sales numbers are anemic!
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August 30th, 2010 at 6:49 pm 6
In the end, the elite all sing from the same hymnbook.
The left-wing CCPA asks the banks to try to maintain high real estate prices.
"OTTAWA — Steep housing price increases in six of Canada's hottest real estate markets since 2002 have all the hallmarks of an "accident waiting to happen" if mortgage rates rise too sharply, warns a new report.
The report by the Centre for Policy Alternatives says smart mortgage rate setting is needed to prevent the bubbles hanging over the housing markets in Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal from bursting.
"The hottest six real-estate markets could be in for a correction at best or, at worst, a bubble burst," writes David Macdonald, author of the report. "Rate setters at the big banks are in the driver's seat now as mortgage rates inch up. They need to hit the breaks lightly."
The chief concern is the price increases in those markets are outside the "historic comfort level," which makes them much more susceptible to mortgage rate changes, the report said.
The average, inflation-adjusted house price in the cities has historically held stable at between $150,000 and $220,00 in today's dollars. But the current average price in all six major markets now is over $300,000, it said.
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Increasing+p…
The article finishes with:
"Macdonald says the best scenario would be to have housing prices stagnate over the next five to 10 years while inflation slowly eats away at their value.
The goal should be to get prices back to the "comfort zone" where house prices are in line with inflation, he said, and where owners will neither gain nor lose a lot of money when they sell."
Sigh…
You can watch Macdonald defend this stupidity on CTV this morning at Noon ET, which is 9am our time.
http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/busine…
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August 30th, 2010 at 7:08 pm 7
Yet another article on the CCPA report:
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/headline_…
BTW I just noticed Jimmy has more links about the report at the end of the previous thread.
Macdonald does break ground in being the first national commentator to talk about our housing bubble as a national concern, not just in Toronto and Vancouver. But I find it baffling that he doesn't get it that bubbles burst; they can't be slowly and safely deflated. The damage is done, and he should be talking about how to deal with at the after-affects of the burst. He should be asking about can we learn from other countries that are in the later stages of the burst?
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August 30th, 2010 at 7:12 pm 8
Correction to last post: have to give Garth Turner credit as the first national commentator to acknowledge the national bubble. Macdonald is the second.
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August 30th, 2010 at 8:55 pm 9
MLS competition? Rob Chipman must have blood dripping out of his ear.
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August 30th, 2010 at 9:03 pm 10
@Inventory: It's not like new unit sales cost much more for FTBs under the HST regime. Unless FTBs weren't the ones who were buying condos, or maybe there aren't that many FTBs left.
I just can't see how developers can keep building apace if these conditions persist.
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August 30th, 2010 at 9:41 pm 11
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
CCPA studies in graphs. I love graphs.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:13 am 12
“Macdonald says the best scenario would be to have housing prices stagnate over the next five to 10 years while inflation slowly eats away at their value."
best scenario for what? Speculators emotional health? The longer that house prices slowly drop the worse the drag on the overall economy. Rip the bandaid off, let prices fall where they should and then we can go about building a real economy.
Whats better, the post 81 crash and recovery in north america or the 15 years of falling prices on Japans "lost decade"? People who bought homes to live in long term and decided the premium was worth it shouldn't care if it's their home and not a speculative gamble. Just because you've got to have that limited edition Beany baby at any price doesn't mean everyone else feels the same.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:15 am 13
The end of the MLS monopoly cannot come to soon. If I remember correctly a bearish blog closed down (cannot remember who it was, but he/she was giving us up-dates from the MLS data) after the got a warning from the MLS.
The days of hoarding and controlling information for the benefit of a few are gone.
BTW- how many times have you been given an MLS number and tried typing it into their site and it doesn't register, even with the correct V pre-fix.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:28 am 14
CBC is also carrying the CCPA story:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2…
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:29 am 15
Nice to see some serious challenges to the current MLS model. I like the detailed neighborhood information in Zoocasa (Incomes, demographics etc.). Makes it easy to see that price to income is well over 10 in almost every Vancouver neighborhood.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:31 am 16
@Patiently Waiting:
"The left-wing CCPA asks the banks to try to maintain high real estate prices."
I say…YA RIGHT! We all know what happens to bubbles-they pop. You're right, there is NO SUCH THING AS SLOW DEFLATION! Too bad the Centre for Policy Alternatives seems to have missed the mark on this one (though identifying a bubble is a good step, I suppose). It doesn't matter WHAT the banks do in relation to interest rates, when the party's over, it's over. Take a look at the US-low interest rates and yet no one's buying. We will soon learn this sad lesson here in Canada. The stampede for the exits will soon start (or has it already)…
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:55 am 17
Pete Says:
“Macdonald says the best scenario would be to have housing prices stagnate over the next five to 10 years while inflation slowly eats away at their value.”
best scenario for what?
Call it what it is, corporate welfare for the real estate industry. An entire generation should not just put off their life plans, but be taxed to support speculators and let realtors keep up their Beemer payments. That's seriously fucked up.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:57 am 18
"I’ve never seen a soft-landing in 53 years"
~Angelo Mozilo – CEO of Countrywide~
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:57 am 19
Inventory Says:
August 31st, 2010 at 1:50 am
Its a record breaking month!
Hmmm, interesting "head and shoulders patterns" in each case, for our chartist friends.
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:24 am 20
@Purp:
I like the additional info, but would love to see on each listing:
-that house's previous sales prices
-A list of comparable sales in area for the prev. 6 months (I know this would not be exact, but the consumer can determine what is and is not truly comparable)
That is the "value" that agents currently provide for someone who is reasonably versed in buying and selling.
Imagine trading on the stock market and not being able to get a quote without calling a broker for a "hot sheet". INFO transparency will help buyers become more confident in buying.
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:48 am 21
Regarding the CCPA report.
1. "smart mortgage rate setting is needed" In other words the banks should keep rates lower than the bond rates dictate and cut into or eliminate any profits on mortgages. Sorry never going to happen.
2. To "prevent the bubbles hanging over" you need them to pop quickly. What they are suggesting will keep the bubble hanging longer.
3. "The best scenario would be to have housing prices stagnate over the next five to 10 years" Nice to see some more realistic "best case" scenarios. Lets hope people read this stuff and there are more reports like this to come. Even taking their best case scenario it makes no sense to buy for at least 5 years. Overall it is good to see stuff like this out there.
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:51 am 22
@“A-Sharp” Accountant: "That is the “value” that agents currently provide"
If you're an FTB or investor looking to buy, previous sales prices shouldn't matter at all IMO: it should be about the value, not what some other schmuck was willing and able to pay.
For sellers and those who are "moving up" or "moving down," there is some value in knowing the market price but that's because they're on the sell side, at least in part.
For those "versed" in buying and selling, I agree there is little value a Realtor offers and after the competitors destroy the previous sales data "monopoly", there is precisely zero value left. For those who are NOT "versed" in buying and selling, a GOOD Realtor fills the bill.
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:55 am 23
@Best place on meth:
This was from 2006:
Bernanke: Housing market is headed for a soft landing
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:01 am 24
@Patiently Waiting: That's the problem with this country, we're different then everyplace else. First we didn't have a bubble, now maybe we do and if we do, well, we're so much smarter and more conservative then every other country whose bubble burst we're pretty sure it will still work out for the best.
Narcissism at it's finest.
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:01 am 25
@Renting: I'd like to hear how the CCPA proposes to keep long rates low. Maybe they should talk to Japanese policymakers for advice
I disagree that a slow decline, if possible at all, is the "best case scenario." When capital is mis-allocated it is a hindrance to growth. Until price-income ratios drop the economy will suffer in net.
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:06 am 26
The report from the Center for Policy Alternatives group is a joke…..the NDP warning the banks not to raise intrest rates…'or else'?????? The bigger question is why the NDP wants to keep the bubble inflating and who they've just received a cheque from??????
Maybe ….or just maybe….. the pimps got a hold of the study and decided to run it as it has the pimps best intrests at heart…..pyramid scams make strange bed fellows eh?
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:07 am 27
I just spent a few minutes on Zoocasa. I'm fairly impressed although it appears as only a fraction of the listings appear in a given neighborhood.
I think the site will really catch on if they can ensure it captures all listings. Also, I'd like to see recent comparable sales like Zillow provides.
In any event, this is a much needed development and will greatly benefit consumers.
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:09 am 28
Re MLS
The MLS is the worst POS website I have ever used.
I hate government getting involved in anything but they should set up a site/database (or allow a private company set one up) where anyone can access and get any real estate transaction information. This should include assessed values, taxes, all past sale prices, listing activity, etc. All the info the realtors have. Maybe you pay $20 per year to access it.
Who set this system up where realtors are the only ones who can access this information? Maybe it will take a crash and a public backlash for the government to realize how much realtors skim from the system hurting home owners while providing little value, especially for the buyer. What other other industry do you need two sales people to complete a transaction?
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:12 am 29
@Mike: you have identified the only real downside that I see in decentralizing the MLS. The US system is a bit of a mish mash of sites that each seem to have their own listings. The realtor.ca system has its limitations, but at least you can see all the listings on one site.
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:15 am 30
Super Stagnation Segment:
One of the area's I've been tracking for a few years now is townhouses in Coal Harbour and False Creek North (essentially waterfront townhouses). The thing that sets my data apart from MLS data is that I don't reset my "days listed" counter each time a property is re-listed with a new agent or MLS #. As a result, the average number of days listed of all townhouses in this area is…
358!!! Talk about stagnant listings!!!!
Of the current 28 units in this segment only 9 are under a hundred days with the worst offender at 927 days (v829368). Check out the history of this unit that has never been lived in since being completed at the end of 2007:
Initially listed: February 11 2008: $989000
Price reduced March 4 2009: $969000
Price reduced April 17 2008: $899000
Re-listed July 31 2008: $799000
Re-listed July 21 2009: $699000
Re-listed June 10 2010: $759000 (I guess the owner figured the market recovered enough to warrant an increase)
Price reduced June 24 2010: $749000
This guy has already paid $20K in maintenance fees alone with no rent! I think this place is worth no more than $400K (maybe someone should offer $444,444 and really scare the guy).
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:16 am 31
@jesse: the previous sell price can be important during price negotiation.
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:19 am 32
@Inventory: Well it is raining today so I suppose there will be a huge increase in sales. After all, the sunny weather was keeping everyone from buying, right?
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:26 am 33
After glancing through the headlines I am convinced that the articles are related to one source. The pimps and whores have decided that an attempt to frighten and threaten will be effective on swaying public opinion away from intervention on the MLS issue and they hope they hope to turn the public apathy against a rise in rates. The fact that all these articles have turned up is no coincidence. They are scared and running 'last ditch' strategies at what they see as serious trouble ahead for their industry should the MLS monopoly get busted. The false insistence that real estate inflation is good for the economy is of course self serving and they are obviously spending money on lobbying the BOC not to increase rates. I don't think that the BOC can listen because of the inflation that exists in the consumer price index……not to mention that personal debt increases have had the effect of choking of future spending and a very real potential of prolonging the recession without major stimulus ( debt). Of course it makes sense that the NDP has a hand in this, they are the greatest proponents of public spending and increased taxes.
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:32 am 34
For people who are unaware, there is a way to know the sale prices in a particular area. You only get to know the sale prices of places that are already in your search criteria though. If you signed up today you only get to see sale prices of properties that sold after today.
http://www.mikestewart.ca/clientcreate.html
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:33 am 35
@Boombust:
I would have liked to have seen lower volume for the 2009 head and lower volume on the right shoulder than the left however "free money" is probably the cause. Do you expect volume to increase on the breakout?
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:45 am 36
Anybody want to buy a Property Guys franchise?
http://mypgu.com/
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:56 am 37
Sorry, it is in French:
http://finances.ca.msn.com/actualites/rc-article….
Immobilier – Une bulle menace le Canada
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:57 am 38
Regarding the McDonald idea of inflating away current prices over a ten year period, I have an alternative suggestion that may be more realistic. Prices drop 25% immediately, another 15% in the second, an adittional ten % in the third year and then dropping 5% annually for the remaining seven years . This would bring houses back to the mean average price where a 25% downpayment would support a mortgage based on fundamental income and give us the added benefit of wiping out any notion of speculation in the housing market. And how about a radical inclusion to this, we disallow all foriegn buyers the opportunity to purchase residential housing stock.
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:59 am 39
Found equivalent in English:
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2010/08/31/con-h…
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:06 am 40
Buying land: a good way to obtain information without the help of a Realtor is to use the maps provided at:
https://www.mtonline.gov.bc.ca/mtov/home.do
then click on MINERAL MAP
You will know if there is swamp, marsh, flood, creek etc. You can also see the topography and precise satellite images. Finally, you can see the precise map of the lot and the mineral rights.
Excellent tool!
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:12 am 41
@canook, regarding "I have an alternative suggestion that may be more realistic",
It looks very good to me, reasonable and well thought out. I think we should go further and adopt the equivalent of Trudeau's (actually Stanfield's) "price and wage controls" and call it the "Home Ownership Stability Plan" (HOSP). We will legislate the price drops into reality, according to the schedule that you have proposed. I nominate Pope to be an MP in the next federal riding that comes vacant, preferably a riding where there a lot of patiently waiting bears. His slogan would be "HOSPITAL" (Home Ownership Stablity Plan Is The Answer, Lads/Lassies". Once elected, Pope can introduce HOSP as a private member's bill. Well, it's a thought.
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:20 am 42
So you all want the MLS broken up? You are cheering for its break-up?
Here's the deal: Remax, C21, and RLP are seeing that their agents' value is being diminished by the Competition Bureau. They don't fear Zoocasa (what a POS site that lacks the vast majority of listings and is opt-in by realtors who could care less… ooooooh, it's now on Yahoo… BFD… who the hell goes to Y! anymore?).
They see that the MLS has come under fire from multiple sources and are looking to extricate themselves from that mess. See, if they have their own website that they can push with their huge coffers then they can cease being a part of the mls.ca site. Then they can enforce their own rules on listings by their agents. They can say that an agent must charge X% and must provide X services. The competition bureau cannot come down on them for that because no specific agent is forced to work under the RLP/C21Remax banner. The brokerages can say that they are enforcing their values and defending their hard-earned reputations.
The end result? A disjointed mess where you will have to visit numerous sites to get your public info. This won't affect the back-end with a realtor as they will still have their MLS and every member must be a member of a board. You'll still have your discount options (1%, Property Guys, FSBO, whatever) and you'll still have boutique brokerages (Rennie, TAC, etc.)… but without the Remax/RLP/C21 listings on MLS.ca you effectively kill MLS.ca and destroy its value. You'll end up with a system much like they have in the rest of the world; an absolute disaster for the consumer.
Congratulations! You don't know what you got till it's gone.
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:27 am 43
@Bad Bad Man:
Thanks for stopping by Mr. Chipman.
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:28 am 44
If mls goes down where will bear get stat from? Usual place I guess straight from ass but serious market watcher may have problem.
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:32 am 45
@superduperbulltime:
"If mls goes down where will bear get stat from?"
Monitoring the suicide rate should be adequate.
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:33 am 46
Now bears want free MLS? Always want money for nothing eh bear, and your chicks for free. Who care what MLS cost, bear not buying anyways, and Craigslist free for rental listing. Also find cheap used Chinese bike listing, but don't expect girlfriend.
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:37 am 47
@Bad Bad Man, regarding "A disjointed mess where you will have to visit numerous sites to get your public info" …
That's OK, I know how to use the Internet. (Isn't it remarkable how the Internet is changing everything about how we do business now?)
And regarding, "You’ll end up with a system much like they have in the rest of the world; an absolute disaster for the consumer."
An absolute disaster for who?
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:38 am 48
"Also find cheap used Chinese bike listing, but don’t expect girlfriend."
Gold, Jerry! Pure gold!
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:41 am 49
@Patiently Waiting:
Yes, I suppose it's just fine for an entire two generations of young families to get screwed on housing, just so existing house owners can retain positive equity.
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:56 am 50
@YLTNBoomerang:
Post 33
And to top it off it has strata fees of $611 a month! You kidding me? What idiot would pay $611 in strata fees on an 1100 SF box? Idiots abound out there.
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:58 am 51
Ha Ha! Bear here remind me of toilet paper commercial… stuck in tree waving furry bum with bits of paper stuck to ass. Cute and cuddly but doesn't know enough to even wipe own ass right. Ha! Bear here too funny.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:00 am 52
Seems to me that a complete freedom of RE information would potentially encourage speculators to play the RE market more like the stock market.
Could make the next bubble even worse, if the feds don't step in with some mechanisms to discourage such actions.
thoughts?
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:04 am 53
Bear is so dumb. Go back to protecting your pot supplie in closet. Smoke away yourself to bliss like do-do bird. You soon extinct on street when rent check bounce.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:13 am 54
@Grimandbearit:
What's with all this fake chinese garbage lately? It's not really funny anymore…
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:16 am 55
@Bad Bad Man:
When I book a vacation to Hawii I go to Orbitz and travelocity.
There are a lot of similar vacations, but each site has a few other hotels on it. That is fine for me. The internet has allowed vacations to be less money.
It's disintermediation…plain and simple…it has happened to many professions (including mine), as technology allows a faster and more efficient method for some consumers. This is a good thing. It means greater efficiency in our economy which allows us to compete on a global scale.
If there is one word of advice I have…Don't try to fight the internet. Zoocasa is a good site. I will certainly incorporate it into my home searches.
I think they should take high school grads…send them to their realtor course, and pay them $22 an hour as licenced realtors on salary for Zoocasa. They can send comparables, and narrow the search down They should charge them out to buyers for $30 an hour to show houses. When you buy a home, the hourly rate (up to a reasonable # of hours) is refunded and the site gets 1% and the rest of any commission is sent to the buyer. They can also list houses for $500 plus any "sweetener".
Now that's free market competition.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:19 am 56
@FlipFlop:
That thought crossed my mind, but a general lack of liquidity over the coming years should discourage speculation.
Down the road, transparency and lower transaction costs could cause more speculation, but there are other solutions other than poor information.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:22 am 57
I don't mind MLS, I just wish they would have all the data listed for everyone and not just agents. Open the data and it will be a nice site, where everything is in one place.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:33 am 58
@“A-Sharp” Accountant:
Agree on that. I'm pretty sure MLS doesn't want to part with all the data they've collected over the years but the sales and assessment data is also held by the government. Their website allows public access of sales from the past year for the first few months of the year when assessments come out. I wish they would make all their data public all the time.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:43 am 59
Yes. Pay High school grad $22/hour to send you email when it can be done for free from realtor. No wonder bear so dumb. They want everything for free but will pay for what is already free. Almost time to hibernate bear, have you enough food? Know that I will shoot you if you come on my property. My food is not yours.
Dumb bear.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:48 am 60
@Renting:
……I hate government getting involved in anything but they should set up a site/database (or allow a private company set one up) where anyone can access and get any real estate transaction information. This should include assessed values, taxes, all past sale prices, listing activity, etc. All the info the realtors have. Maybe you pay $20 per year to access it. …..
You don't want the Government doing this, you want Google to do it, and they will and it will be free (as much as anything is really "free")! By-by realturds – I feel sorry for all the Beemer dealers out there.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:51 am 61
@the other Garth, regarding "“Macdonald says a housing bubble burst has been a rare phenomenon in Canada. Since 1980, it has only happened three times — in Vancouver in 1981 and 1994 and in Toronto in 1989.” That sounds pretty frequent to me, seeing as it is an event that can potentially destroy you financially."
He left out Calgary which had a huge peak in 1981 and subsequent crash (thanks I believe to Trudeau's National Energy Policy). It may have been bigger than Vancouver's. The phrase "dollar your house" was born of those days. Someone would pay you a dollar for your house and take over the payments. I am told it took roughly 20 years for prices to recover.
So wouldn't it be nice if the economists and journalists, who should know better, could get their facts straight?
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:53 am 62
@BadNewsBears:
No the site hires them for $22, just like when you call in at Orbitz.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:56 am 63
What's Black and Red and Wet all over?
Answer: Homeless bear standing in rain looking at checking account!
Ha!
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:57 am 64
So Bear want site to pay highschool kid to email when realtor do it for free? Dumb Bear. If Bear so smart then why not bear start business doing that? Oh? Is it bad idea now bear?
Dumb Bear.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:58 am 65
Judging by all the trolling today, somebody is clearly freaking out
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:00 am 66
Bear want Google to index all data. Dumb Bear. Google would be target of monopoly, too. Google must be very careful where they are. But Bear want to go to GRealty instead. Dumb Bear. Google only sells ads and your data. Google not care about selling houses. And Google already allow any home to be put on map for sale but no one do that. Know why, bear? Because Google is not all that and bag of chips.
Dumb Bear.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:03 am 67
Anyone listen to CBC radio at lunch? I heard about 30 seconds of it, then turned it off because it's all garbage. What I heard:
Don Campbell from the real estate investment network "There is no bubble, no crash will happen, but don't expect huge price increases as in the past. Prices will increase 2-4% per year"
That's all I needed to hear before I turned it off in disgust. Doesn't this guy realize that once you remove the huge price increases from the market, "investors" will try to exit the market en masse (because they're tired of negative cash flow on that rental suite). And similarly, fewer people will enter the market because what's the point of paying so much more than renting if you're not going to have huge price increases in the near future? You no longer have the fear of "being priced out forever"
This is what causes a crash. Not increasing interest rates, or increasing population. Typical Ponzi scheme, no new entrants.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:03 am 68
@Patiently Waiting
Don't hold your breadth. You must be blue in face with all that waiting. Is "freaking out" when disagree with Bear? Too bad most of world "freaking out" with you. And it is a party! You should stop holding breadth and join party if you can. We are not bad people. Just want to have good life. Bear just want to be grumpy and moan about sad state of reality not meeting Bear fantasy. But you can be better man.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:04 am 69
Ah, @Pricedoutfornow
So is CBC Radio also Freaking Out? They disagree with Bear. Poor Bear. Come here for consolation from other grumpy bears.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:10 am 70
Hi Pope, I'm sure it's been discussed before, but is there any way you can set up an ignore function for registered users of the site? It's getting more and more tedious sifting through the troll posts and as the market deteriorates further I expect the trolling to worsen. Maybe an IP block would work?
Thanks for running such a great site, you're much appreciated.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:10 am 71
@Bad Bad Man:
This is a red herring, and creating a false dichotomy (along with #29 Joshua), like so many status quo proponents are wont to do. The options are not a monolithic monopoly vs listings anarchy.
Initially, there will be fragmentation, as new entrants enter the market and provide their own innovations and advantages to gain an edge. But eventually consolidation will occur, and there will be much incentive amongst the remaining players to share data and open access (network effects, blah blah), and work to gain an edge based on their unique feature proposition.
Anyone why has used the likes of Zillow or Zoocasa realizes MLS is a piece of crap, scraps realtors have thrown us reluctantly. But that is what happens when you have a monopoly, you get lazy and complacent, and have zero incentive to improve your service, because you know people have no realistic choice.
Well, all monopolies come to an end, and the MLS and REALTOR(c)(tm)(r) monopolies are no different (no, they are not different!). An open listings system will change how people buy and sell real estate, and realtors will either adjust and survive, or go the way of the dodo.
And not a moment too soon.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:13 am 72
Tony this site doesn't need your crap either. I'm enjoying the site without Patriotz and Dave also.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:14 am 73
@Anonymous: Then you can put me on ignore…
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:15 am 74
The trolling is getting out of hand. Some dude has WAY too much time on his hands. Wasn't there some talk of voting trolls off the site? or maybe moderators?
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:15 am 75
Are there are real bulls left out there? There must be because houses sell everyday. I would really like to hear their arguments why YVR realestate will go higher?
Seriously.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:18 am 76
CREA reduces forecast for sales for 2011 AGAIN.
These guys are amazing!
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:23 am 77
@McLovin: Too many people not enough land. The government has a printing press and is oiling it up now. These arguments can not be refuted by bears.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:25 am 78
@Tony Danza: Then it's not really an open site is it? You make the effort to post something, i will read it, even if it's crap.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:27 am 79
@McLovin
Bear think CREA forecast change amazing? Tell us oh wise sultan of Bears what is your forecast and we can then judge you to be the sham you are.
Dumb Bear.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:28 am 80
Bear spend time on site looking for validation to his being. bear not like being called dumb bear cuz it questions his wasting of time.
Dumb Bear
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:30 am 81
Where is chief Bear? Paulb(ear) with news of today's performance? Anyone know how good is today going? I speak with realtor friend. He is doing three deals today. One is multiple offer.
Ha Ha! Bear sit in woods.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:32 am 82
@YLTNBoomerang:
Check out the history of this unit that has never been lived in since being completed at the end of 2007:
Initially listed: February 11 2008: $989000
Price reduced March 4 2009: $969000
Price reduced April 17 2008: $899000
Re-listed July 31 2008: $799000
Re-listed July 21 2009: $699000
Re-listed June 10 2010: $759000 (I guess the owner figured the market recovered enough to warrant an increase)
Price reduced June 24 2010: $749000
This guy has already paid $20K in maintenance fees alone with no rent!
Purchased Feb 4 2008 for $749,900 with big dreams of an easy quarter million dollar profit. Now looking at a significant loss. At least the owner will save on commissions…the listing agent is the owner.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:34 am 83
@Anonymous:
Sure they can. Counterpoint: US.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:39 am 84
@Devore: Different country. I said they are oiling up the printing press now, not 2006.
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:41 am 85
The cheerleaders are jumping out of their skins.
Not only is real estate collapsing but so is their monopoly.
Fun times ahead!
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:50 am 86
@Anonymous:
"…the listing agent is the owner"
Too Funny!!!
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August 31st, 2010 at 6:03 am 87
Bear in for bad news today. Today many sellers pull property from market. Market get tighter. Interest rates down. Smart people out buying houses right now. Fall market get even tighter. Prices will go up with no choice for buyers. And bear get sadder that fantasy not come true. Don't worry Bear, keep hope alive! Always big chance Friday with Lottomax!
Dumb Bear.
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August 31st, 2010 at 6:06 am 88
@Anonymous:
"Too many people not enough land."
Have you ever seen south east false creek? Acres and Acres of empty land right in the centre of town.
Ask the City why the OV is not selling. Here's why: way too much land, way too many condos, not enough buyers.
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August 31st, 2010 at 6:12 am 89
@McLovin:
"Are there are real bulls left out there? There must be because houses sell everyday. I would really like to hear their arguments why YVR realestate will go higher?"
Anybody who attempts to take up your offer will inevitably be accused of being a realtor. That's the way things roll around here, unfortunately.
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August 31st, 2010 at 6:18 am 90
@Anonymous:
Oh, I see, hasn't worked there, but will work here, because… wait for it… it's different here!
As far as no more land goes, somehow, year after year, we keep managing to find more land, even more waterfront. Yeah, Millennium Water, last waterfront property, until the next one that is. Just watch it, it'll happen.
You guys are getting funnier by the day, keep it up!
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August 31st, 2010 at 6:21 am 91
@Anoymous:
Not necessarily a realtor, but certainly a owner trying to talk up their property value.
If you're not an owner and you're don't make your living from real estate then you're extremely unlikely to be a cheerleader.
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August 31st, 2010 at 6:45 am 92
#69 POFN, I did catch that while stuck in the rain traffic on Cambie, what a freaking downpour. You'd think that people here would become accustomed to the rain by now, but no, they stop and stare like deer in the headlights.
The pimp did go on about why real estate will always go up…what a sad excuse for radio….perhaps if the host was just a bit more on the ball with the topic instead of pimping that asshole out as an 'expert'.
I had to laugh when he brought out the old saw about 'pent up demand' and not mentioning a thing about 'rock bottom rates'. He seems to think that savvy buyers were anticapating a rise in values and getting in while the getting was good.
I'm pretty sure that anyone listening in Kelowna was pumping the shotgun at the radio. Bwhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!! The FTBS that have gone underwater this month must be furious….I'm just wondering what the backlash will be against these pimps and the local media whores…..in UK markets the buyers have collectively decided to sue…when will the flunkeys here realize they've been duped and react?
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August 31st, 2010 at 6:51 am 93
@McLovin:
Maybe current buyers aren't speculating bulls, they are just people who want to buy because they don't want to rent or are upsizing or downsizing. They reject bear extreme claim of 70% crash or fantasy of 3x income. They accept possiblity of correction or stagnation and are willing to ride out any small correction because long term they believe Vancouver RE will become increasingly desirable for economic or geographic or climatic reasons. Maybe they don't see home as investment, where they have to get the best deal, they just want a home. Bear call this stupid, most people call it reality.
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August 31st, 2010 at 6:59 am 94
@Devore:
@Renting:
The "expert" you want helping you price your home. Lol!
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August 31st, 2010 at 7:05 am 95
Bears, friend of my cousin's took trip to Las Vegas, prices are way off. They were giving condos away at the airport car rental counter with upgrade to convertible Mustang. Bellagio fountain are stopped. Paris Paris is in foreclosure. Celine Dion is selling a twin. Life has stopped in Las Vegas bears. Also those Mexican guys handing out stripper cards have left. Prices over 95% off, down 65% in last month alone. There was only sale in July, and that was person who went insane from desert heat and thought he sign for free breakfast at Rio. Get ready bears, easy to see same coming to Vancouver RE.
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August 31st, 2010 at 7:39 am 96
China's 'Fed Chairman'…our BOC governor equivalent has 'gone missing' after losing 400 billion dollars on betting agianst the market. So you ask will the Chinese be taking over the world anytime soo….not with guys like this at the helm.
"1. Welcome to the Big Leagues. I keep telling the gold community that the Chinese people and Chinese corporations should not be confused with the Chinese Gman scumbag.
2. Stratfor, one of the most respected information services in the world, announced that the head of the Chinese central bank might be missing, and now it’s hitting the mainstream media, although the spin machines are in power mode downplaying the situation. Imagine Ben Bernanke running away! That’s the magnitude of the situation. I told you, repeatedly, that the Chinese central bank/Gman had massive losses on their US dollar and bond positions they bought in a crazed price chase, from the banksters. Almost nobody listened. Instead, they told me what a master investor the Chinese Gman was, while I called him a bustout. Let’s repeat the issue today, in a different way:
3. Knock, knock. Anybody home?
4. The horrific bottom line is that it appears that bank chief Zhou Xiaochua lost “only” $400 billion. Why would he buy bonds (in US dollars!) in that kind of size, after 30 years of a bond bull market, and at the end of the US dollar bull market? Sadly, I suspect only his personal tooth fairy knows the answer.
5. $400 billion of Chinese taxpayer money burned up in flames. If I was in Zhou’s place, I’d try to run away too. So much for him “dictating” to Helicopter Ben. "
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August 31st, 2010 at 7:45 am 97
Watch out Bear! I hear it is open season on the wild ones. Buying very strong right now with dropping listings. Prices set to go up over next month. Ha! You're bear market already over.
Dumb Bear
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August 31st, 2010 at 7:49 am 98
I love these bulls who still come on the site and rant. It was one thing last fall or even in the spring when the final group of greater fools were being led to the slaughter. However now it is getting silly and even sad.
Now I know where the Flat Earth Society finds its membership!
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August 31st, 2010 at 7:51 am 99
#95 SSB,
You said, "They accept possiblity of correction or stagnation and are willing to ride out any small correction because long term they believe Vancouver RE will become increasingly desirable for economic or geographic or climatic reasons."
I agree that they think this way. I think you are dead on.
They are wrong (of course) and things will be much worse than that. However that is a good analysis of how they think.
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August 31st, 2010 at 8:01 am 100
I have been noticing that the bull arguments and comments by the 'professionals' are getting progressively angrier and adamant as the weeks roll by. They insist that nothing has or will change, it can't by their interpretation of the rose coloured world.
Is it the reality of the correction that is starting to chew away at them when they sleep, is the daytime reality becoming a nightmare of calls from the collection agencies and there isn't a commission in sight. Is it because the realtards have loaded up on 'investment property' and now see the 'equity' being drained away like Japanese water torture? I'm sure many bulls hope for a 2008 whizbang recovery, but that cannot happen without the government rushing in and dropping rates to zero, because, they are at zero already and 'pent up demand' is no more.
Today on a radio call in program two of the callers were miffed because they couldn't qualify for a loan because they have no deposits, they are being asked for 25% downpayments. The banks are also keeping quiet about the death of the 5% down program but obviously the CHMC has called and said 'pack up the tents boys this town has been cleaned out, lets move along'. The scam is over, the party was yesterday, the still drunk realwhores haven't woken up from the effects of the stupor. The greater fools as it turns out, are the realtors and the industry that can't accept what has happened or why its over.
The callers who couldn't get mortgages will someday be happy that they were turned away. They will be happier every month as prices continue to fall. Sticky prices will be pushed aside by market forces, people will die, get divorced, have court ordered estate sales, go bankrupt, get ransferred etc. For all these reasons the 'realtor/owner' and 'industry pundit' will struggle and die, just like during all the other ten year corrections. It will happen because it has to, grass will not grow to the sky, nor does people ability to pay for real estate. I recommended a 50% drop in prices, I'm sticking with that, as this range will be in line with fundamental affordabiltiy. I suggest that the realtards should get behind a sharp drop in the market, if they continue to support the ten year scenario that McDonald suggested, they will all atrophy and die. If people understand that values will erode continuously year after year for ten years what could possibly motivate them to buy?
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August 31st, 2010 at 8:07 am 101
Realfool- if you are going to post something make sure it is the latest verion or you just add more detritus to this site. Stratfor retracted that story yesterday:
Stratfor, the global intelligence analysis group, reported Monday that Chinese-language blogs were reporting that Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of china, “may have left the country.”
But George Friedman, chief executive officer of Stratfor, said that the swirling rumors, which also accuse Zhou of overseeing a $430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, have little basis in fact and may instead signify a power struggle in advance of a leadership change in 2012.
“We don't believe it either,” Friedman told SpyTalk, referring to the alleged $430 billion investment loss. But he added, “I'm less concerned about the number and the specific charges than the politics of a senior banker clearly under attack without the government stepping in and backing him. We really don't know what it all means, if anything, but the numbers aren't important.”
According to Stratfor, the rumors were built on a foundation of intrigue.
“The rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately $430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish some individuals within the PBC, including Zhou," Stratfor reported.
"Although Ming Pao on Aug. 30 published a report on its website indicating that the prior report was fabricated by a mainland news site that had attributed the false information to Ming Pao, rumors of Zhou’s defection have spread around china intensively, and Zhou’s name has been blocked from Internet search engines in china.”
Two knowledgeable government officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they had no evidence of Zhou's defection and that he was not in U.S. custody.
"There's no indication at this point that he's defected,” said one. “It doesn't pay to give too much attention to rumors."
A nonpartisan congressional china expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the losses cited for the PBC were ridiculous.
“I’m not sure how exactly anyone could have ‘lost’ money on investing in U.S. Treasuries since they have been doing a lot better than U.S. stocks,” he said by e-mail.
“The dollar, relative to the RMB, is about the same as it has been since July 2008, so it can’t be a dollar/currency loss. In addition, it is Chinese policy to invest in Treasuries or U.S. corporate bonds or agency debt—as in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And a $430 billion loss? That’s a lot. But it hasn’t happened.”
“Did someone steal or misappropriate $430 billion?” he asked. “Hardly likely. That would be a big chunk of china’s $2.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves.”
Chinese embassy officials did not respond to e-mailed requests for comment.
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August 31st, 2010 at 8:09 am 102
@canook:
"The banks are also keeping quiet about the death of the 5% down program"
What are you on? You can still get 5% down mortgages.
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August 31st, 2010 at 8:17 am 103
BUY NOW!
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August 31st, 2010 at 8:26 am 104
@Anonymous:
I missed when I had access to the Realtor side of MLS. My friend who was a Realtor gave me their login credentials with the caveat that I don't stay logged in and only use it in the evenings when they are not using it however my friend went back to their old job mid 2008 as after 2 years of grinding they were still not making nearly as much as they were before making the leap into real estate. In hindsight, my friend is thankful that they left when they did before the job market gets flooded with realtors giving up!!!
I have another friend who is writing his real estate exam next month…I feel for him. I looked at the study guide and believe I could pass the exam with minimal preparation (my career requires me to understand a lot of what is covered in the guide) therefore when I think it is time to start looking to buy, I will get my license too and gain access to the MLS system again and get paid my commission for my one-and-only sale!
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:03 am 105
@BuyNow:
YARD WORK.
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:22 am 106
Six articles on housing today between the G&M, the Vancouver Sun and the Financial Post. Is that a new record?
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:22 am 107
Tony Danza Says: ….is there any way you can set up an ignore function for registered users of the site?"
Set up a 'Super Bonus Foreclosure' in honour of the red magnets. At some point, say -12, the post goes from Foreclosure to Demolished; the body disappears. It might encourage less RETish posts from the Supers.
/I know……dreaming.
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:30 am 108
New Listings 150
Price Changes 91
Sold Listings 129
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:33 am 109
Good piece on Canadian Housing Bubble at TAE today:
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:40 am 110
#103 F, the article states that there is an effort to sideline the truth, the head banker is still 'missing'…don't you comprehend well? Where did he go and what happened to the money…those are still at the heart of the story…why he is 'missing' is the rumour….the money has disappeared, trades are registered.
You're not the doozy drunk guy thats running over those flag people on the highway are you????….can't think….or pay attention????…. don't try to obfuscate the facts copying volumes of print….you're wasting our time. The copy function doesn't suggest your IQ .
If you want to satisfy us with the truth why not refer us over to the REMAX site….nothing to think about over there.
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:47 am 111
There have been a surprising number of negative articles about real estate and the mention of the term bubble lately. I wonder if the national papers have finally given up pumping and realizes that they need to write a few articles that mention that we *could* be in a bubble so that when it happens they can say that they were balanced?
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:53 am 112
Whew what a relief,
all the press about a housing bubble in Canada, but the Realtor lady, the bank economist, and the CMHC economist on TV, all agree, there is no need to panic.
Now all I need is to hear Bill Slut on the radio tomorrow to assure me it’s different here, and I can go out to shop for a condo this weekend.
I wonder when the staged interviews will begin on CKNW Realty-HomeEquity-Pump-Radio.
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:54 am 113
"There have been a surprising number of negative articles about real estate and the mention of the term bubble lately…"
I have noticed the same thing.
They are setting up the chumps for the fall.
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August 31st, 2010 at 10:25 am 114
@Junius: What part wrong?
Long term, even bear should be bullish on Van RE, it has great future.
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August 31st, 2010 at 10:33 am 115
global bubble story
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Housing+pric…
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August 31st, 2010 at 10:37 am 116
@Renting: The Real Estate association is a Monopoly. As such, it is acting in its own best interests and preventing competetion.
Like all monopolies, this must be broken up…
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August 31st, 2010 at 10:38 am 117
@SuperSmartBullis a re pumper planted here:
Don't forget to phone in during the Bill Slut show.
Remember the talking points….
Best place on earth
Running out of land
Everybody wants to live here
In the long run…………
Safe place for millionaires to raise the kids
China, India ………….
And don’t forget the miles of palm tree lined beaches, for the rich retirees.
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August 31st, 2010 at 10:47 am 118
All ya Americans,Chinese,Europeans,Britishers,and Indians
(¯`v´¯)
`•.¸.•´
¸.•´¸.•´¨) ¸.•*¨)
(¸.•´ (¸.•´ (¸.•´¯`•–> x o x o Vancouver Welcome The World x o x o ♥ ☼ ♥
North 5 Interstate Vancouver BC.
**♥☆**♥☆**♥☆**♥☆**
Get in right away!
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August 31st, 2010 at 10:55 am 119
@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps: Maybe less weed and your post make more sense.
Long Term Vancouver is well position, here are few reasons:
- Sea port and close proximity to Chinese economy
- BC rich in resources
- Stable, safe, well educated workforce
- Diverse economy
- Abundance of water and farmland
- Lots of cheap hydroelectric power
- Proximity to fossil fuel resources in AB
- Moderate climate
This put Vancouver in different category than favorite bear target like Phoenix or Daytona Beach. Forget about stagnation or minor correction, Vancouver RE has strong future. But of course bitter angry DougieDog bear can't see good anywhere.
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August 31st, 2010 at 11:07 am 120
Assignments from Craigslist below cost. These silly investors are selling too soon just before prices take off!
"Priced reduce by 28k, already made 10% down, can't complete on it, reason being cant get financing"
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/1927864…
"Way less than original purchase price"
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/1924851…
"REDUCED PRICE"
(I am pretty sure this is supersmartbull. I recognize the writing style. He has 3 for sale in this building. No wonder he is freaking out.)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/1918979…
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August 31st, 2010 at 11:10 am 121
@(¯`v´¯)
`•.¸.•´
¸.•´¸.•´¨) ¸.•*¨)
(¸.•´ (¸.•´ (¸.•´¯`•–> x o x oSuperSmartBull businessisslow:
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August 31st, 2010 at 11:14 am 122
@(¯`v´¯)
`•.¸.•´
¸.•´¸.•´¨) ¸.•*¨)
(¸.•´ (¸.•´ (¸.•´¯`•–> x o x oSuperSmartBull businessisslow:
Keep it up pimp,the more fools you drag into your nets, the more bargains ahead for me.
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August 31st, 2010 at 11:52 am 123
Despite the recent articles, sell lists have been consistently high for several days in a row now!
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August 31st, 2010 at 11:53 am 124
Garth's latest is a must read:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:08 pm 125
@Keeping an Eye on The Pimps: Sad.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:17 pm 126
Has anyone else heard anything about this? I find it hard to believe that banks are asking for 25% down if its not required by the rules (especially since CMHC will be on the hook for any default).
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:24 pm 127
Reports conflict on housing bubble possibility
'Home prices that continue to inflate even as sales and construction activity fall sparked conflicting views in two new reports Tuesday over whether the Canadian market is in a precarious housing bubble that could burst at any time.
In the view of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, prices in six of Canada's largest housing markets are in bubble territory for the first time in 30 years — and a U.S.-style correction is still not out of the question.' ….
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2010/08/31/con-h…
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:25 pm 128
SSB – You are a complete joke. For a while you were amusing but now your constant posts about nothing are just clutter. You are not a troll you are just a pathetic loser who can't even make people mad anymore. You should just go away or only post when you actually have something useful to write.
Seriously buddy just go away.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:26 pm 129
“Macdonald says a housing bubble burst has been a rare phenomenon in Canada. Since 1980, it has only happened three times — in Vancouver in 1981 and 1994 and in Toronto in 1989.”
That sounds pretty frequent to me, seeing as it is an event that can potentially destroy you financially.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:31 pm 130
@Canook You think you so so smart with crafty writing but the same could be said for dumb bears on this forum. You go on and on angrier and angrier, not because fantasy bubble pop but because fantasy bubble never exist and you are sad. Wah! Wah! Why don't prices come down? Wah! Wah! Mommy, need bottle.
Dumb Bear.
See stats today from PaulB(ear)? Must make all bears cry. Very high sales. What is that? 85% S/L? Ha!
Dumb Bear.
And Garth Turner? Puh-lease! That guy is nothing but bleeding headlines. He can't hold job so writes fear. Like Steven King he is best seller but sadly people think Garth is non-fiction. He is King Dumb Bear.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:31 pm 131
Johnny Horton killed realestatetalks.
SSB killed VCI.
The last one out, please turn off the lights. G'nite!
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:41 pm 132
@EveryBear on this site – You are a complete joke. For a while you were amusing but now your constant posts about nothing are just clutter. You are not a troll you are just a pathetic loser who can’t even make people mad anymore. You should just go away or only post when you actually have something useful to write.
Seriously buddy just go away.
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:44 pm 133
South Surrey’s South Point Exchange mall sold for $91 million
“When you talk about the shape of the recovery, [Metro Vancouver] continues to be a bit of a V [shape],” George Carras, RealNet’s president, said in an interview. “Most others, as I call it, turn into a square-root sign.”
rest here: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/South+Surrey…
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:46 pm 134
Vancouver real estate 'bubble' an 'accident waiting to happen': report
30-year-high brings warnings of potential correction
"The hottest six real-estate markets could be in for a correction at best or, at worst, a bubble burst," writes David Macdonald, author of the report. "Rate setters at the big banks are in the driver's seat now as mortgage rates inch up. They need to hit the breaks lightly."
http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Vancouver+…
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:51 pm 135
The people behind us are still DIY painting the exterior of their house at this time of night and in the rain (granted they are under an overhang, but they are getting wet). This isn't renos for the fun of it
RUSH TO MARKET
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:57 pm 136
@McLovin: I am sorry that you need to be coddled and re-assured with only views that match your own bitter bear view and need to resort to silly insult.
Fact is Vancouver is much better positioned than bears like to admit. Does that mean prices will continue to rise 10% YOY? No, of course not. Only crazy chicken bull say that. But there is difference between gleeful mindless cheering for complete 70% collapse to 3x price/income and a more likely outcome of stagnation or slow grind back to 'fundamental'. Bear say impossible, but look at early 1990's. Bear compare Vancouver to Phoenix, Las Vegas, Daytona Beach, Dubai and All of Europe (80% off). Reality is Vancouver experience will be different. Vancouver very well positioned for reasons listed below. It is a not a mirage built in the desert. Except for maybe DT condos, it was not as massively overbuilt as most of these markets. Bears who have never visited any of these places or taken time to do their own research just mindlessly repeat the weak anecdotes and 'analysis' that is spewed daily on this blog and others. Yesterday bear talk about about 60-80% off in Portugal which get +20 vote and a 5 minute Google search shows is garbage, Portugal prices down 10% at most and currently recovering. 3x Price to Income is a metric highly dependent on current interest rates, and is valid for rates in the 8-10%+ range. For the prolonged low rates expected, we will never dip to 3x price to income. But zombie repeat garbage over and over and over and wonder why no one take them serious except other mindless bears. Even smart bears like Patriotz and others have mostly given up on posting here, what's the point? All bear arguments have been made and there is no room for other opinion here. Now paranoid bear will say this is Realtor or CREA post as easy mental exercise so they can dismiss any uncomfortable facts that don't mesh with their worldview. Sad.
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:00 pm 137
@Anonymous: Maybe they have shitty credit or don't make enough money. If they only qualify for a 300K mortgage, they would have to put down 25% to buy a 400K place. A few years ago, the same place would cost 330K so they would have only needed a 10% dp
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:06 pm 138
Why do I have a feeling that if this was an image board we'd all be looking at engorged baboon asses about now?
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:09 pm 139
@SuperSmartBull:
Make all the excuses you want fool, the psychological shift has begun and this pig is taking on water like the Titanic. You can't change psychology with fundemental BS. The next downward phase will be faster and more painful than you can ever imagine. When the CHMC says it's game over you know it's all she wrote.
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:18 pm 140
I'm betting 75% of the bears here live on commercial drive… maybe clark. No wonder they are so bitter.
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:22 pm 141
@Junius: Bulls right, Junius wrong for so long it is not funny any more. Unstoppable trend. Scared to bet bear? Jizz on Junius' copy of "Greater Fool"
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:34 pm 142
@SuperSmartBull: "For the prolonged low rates expected, we will never dip to 3x price to income."
Depends on the property. I'll be watching condo prices with keen interest. 3x median income in Vancouver? $200K. Just saying.
We have a good look at what prices in Japan did in the face of low interest rates. They kept declining because low interest rates meant rents and incomes didn't go up.
I remember a story my grandfather told me about the Great Depression. Through most of the '30s nobody had money to spend. Rates were low but then in a very short amount of time near the end of the decade, money started flowing again. He said it was almost overnight — one day nobody was spending the next the retailers couldn't keep up with demand.
Will rates stay low forever? I highly doubt it. It's definitely not something I'd bet the farm on but many people are.
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:35 pm 143
@SuperSmartBull: Nice post SSB. You were on a roll until the part about interest rates and prices never dipping to 3x price to income. Perhaps you meant to say "as long as rates stay low, prices will not dip to 3x price to income". Surely you didn't mean that rates will stay low forever and therefore prices will never go to 3X price to income.
You cite the early 90's slow deflate/stagnation as an example of what can happen and that is certainly possible. It is also possible Vancouver gets what Toronto got in the early 90's which was a massive haircut. Either way, why buy a house under either scenario?
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:42 pm 144
@Patiently Waiting: Exterior painting in the rain? Hopefully it warms up tomorrow or that pig's lipstick will look like Paris Hilton's after fleet week!
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August 31st, 2010 at 1:52 pm 145
@rent-o-rama: "the early 90’s slow deflate/stagnation as an example of what can happen and that is certainly possible"
And what did the '90s have that this decade doesn't? And no it's not rich immigrants. Let's assume there's still lots of those around.
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:01 pm 146
Housing will be banks' next sore spot
http://www.financialpost.com/news/Housing+will+ba…
The good news for the banks is that their riskiest mortgages are insured by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. so even if there is a rise in default levels the federal government takes the loss.
But, at the same time, they are highly motivated to prevent that from happening because borrowers who stop paying their mortgage typically abandon other obligations as well, including everything from car payments to lines of credit. And any spike in home foreclosures would probably spark a broad decline in prices, which in turn would affect the value of bank collateral.
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August 31st, 2010 at 2:37 pm 147
@KopyrightKlepto: Couldn't agree more. Over half the comments I've scrolled through are the trolls are responses to the trolls.
Please stop feeding them people…
Just ignore!!
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:30 pm 148
#121 @Renting: “REDUCED PRICE”
Among the people spending $1.8M for 1300 sqft 2 bedroom apartments, who cares about a reduced price?
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August 31st, 2010 at 3:47 pm 149
@rp1:
"Among the people spending $1.8M for 1300 sqft 2 bedroom apartments, who cares about a reduced price?"
I am sure the seller will care when he finally sells the place for $600K after completion. I doubt he could get anymore than 50 cents on the dollar today even before prices really decline. I hope the developer got a hefty deposit.
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August 31st, 2010 at 4:43 pm 150
August sales down -36%
Aug
1994 = 2159
1995 = 2326
1996 = 2141
1997 = 2096
1998 = 1589
1999 = 2002
2000 = 1805
2001 = 2659
2002 = 2558
2003 = 3413
2004 = 2570
2005 = 3800
2006 = 3092
2007 = 3493
2008 = 1611
2009 = 3496
2010 = 2236 down 36% ***Aug 31
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August 31st, 2010 at 5:00 pm 151
Unit sales August
2009 = 2010 = %change = area
5 = 4 = -20% Bowen Island
38 = 40 = +5% Burnaby East
195 = 118 = -39%% Burnaby North
189 = 137 = -27% Burnaby South
290 = 130 = -55% Coquitlam
7 = 7 = 0% Islands-Van. & Gulf
36 = 22 = -38% Ladner
196 = 109 = -44% Maple Ridge
133 = 84 = -36% New Westminster
234 = 143 = -38% North Vancouver
41 = 23 = -43% Pitt Meadows
117 = 59 = -49%% Port Coquitlam
84 = 54 = -35% Port Moody
480 = 336 = -30% Richmond
37 = 31 = -16% Squamish
77 = 57 = -25% Sunshine Coast
39 = 36 = -7% Tsawwassen
388 = 229 = -40% Vancouver East
801 = 512 = -36% Vancouver West
80 = 61 = -23% West Vancouver
20 = 42 = +110% Whistler
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:39 pm 152
@rent-o-rama: Either way, why buy a house under either scenario?
So SSB can get a commission cheque and save the Bimmer from the repo man, or snort it up his nose.
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August 31st, 2010 at 10:24 pm 153
With all trolls lately, I though it would be worthwhile to share how to hide “foreclosed” posts.
For anyone who wants to automatically ignore these, I have posted instructions in the forums at http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/how-to-hide-forclosed-comments#post-811
I think this will help make the blog more usable for many, and likely help steer the trolls away.
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September 1st, 2010 at 12:08 am 154
@Anonymous: “This was from 2006:
Bernanke: Housing market is headed for a soft landing”
In fact, Bernanke co-authored a paper in which he said FED should not care about house prices.
read more -
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff
reviewed by Dr Winfried Fruehauf:
“The book “This time is different” is well-researched, so well that it could be viewed as a scholarly entertaining, educational textbook. It is not easily read cover-to-cover in one or even a few sittings. Indeed, it is very demanding on the reader.
The book identifies excessive use of debt as the root cause of some of the most severe economic and financial ills of governments, societies and the business-world over many centuries. Lack of spending discipline, caused by ignorance, greed, lack of foresight, massive governmental intervention and/or acts of Dutch courage, is the driver of excesssive indebtedness. On the flip side of borrowers’ inability to repay debt in full and on time is the damage visited upon lenders from the fall-out of insolvency. It could be argued that some or most of the causes of the excessive use of debt are, mutatis mutandis, identical with or similar to the causes of excessive lending. In other words, lack of due diligence is leading both borrowers and lenders into financial quagmires.
There is nothing inherently wrong with the use of debt; however, wrong is excessive use of debt.
The book’s title is probably chosen to be facetious. It could, perhaps equally well, have read “same old – same old” and it would have hit the nail on the head, and, as such, would have reaffirmed Ecclesiastes 1:2-11: there is nothing new under the sun.”
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