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August 31st, 2010 at 11:41 am
@Patiently Waiting:
Yes, I suppose it’s just fine for an entire two generations of young families to get screwed on housing, just so existing house owners can retain positive equity.
August 31st, 2010 at 11:38 am
“Also find cheap used Chinese bike listing, but don’t expect girlfriend.”
Gold, Jerry! Pure gold!
August 31st, 2010 at 11:37 am
@Bad Bad Man, regarding “A disjointed mess where you will have to visit numerous sites to get your public info” …
That’s OK, I know how to use the Internet. (Isn’t it remarkable how the Internet is changing everything about how we do business now?)
And regarding, “You’ll end up with a system much like they have in the rest of the world; an absolute disaster for the consumer.”
An absolute disaster for who?
August 31st, 2010 at 11:33 am
Now bears want free MLS? Always want money for nothing eh bear, and your chicks for free. Who care what MLS cost, bear not buying anyways, and Craigslist free for rental listing. Also find cheap used Chinese bike listing, but don’t expect girlfriend.
August 31st, 2010 at 11:32 am
@superduperbulltime:
“If mls goes down where will bear get stat from?”
Monitoring the suicide rate should be adequate.
August 31st, 2010 at 11:28 am
If mls goes down where will bear get stat from? Usual place I guess straight from ass but serious market watcher may have problem.
August 31st, 2010 at 11:27 am
@Bad Bad Man:
Thanks for stopping by Mr. Chipman.
August 31st, 2010 at 11:20 am
So you all want the MLS broken up? You are cheering for its break-up?
Here’s the deal: Remax, C21, and RLP are seeing that their agents’ value is being diminished by the Competition Bureau. They don’t fear Zoocasa (what a POS site that lacks the vast majority of listings and is opt-in by realtors who could care less… ooooooh, it’s now on Yahoo… BFD… who the hell goes to Y! anymore?).
They see that the MLS has come under fire from multiple sources and are looking to extricate themselves from that mess. See, if they have their own website that they can push with their huge coffers then they can cease being a part of the mls.ca site. Then they can enforce their own rules on listings by their agents. They can say that an agent must charge X% and must provide X services. The competition bureau cannot come down on them for that because no specific agent is forced to work under the RLP/C21Remax banner. The brokerages can say that they are enforcing their values and defending their hard-earned reputations.
The end result? A disjointed mess where you will have to visit numerous sites to get your public info. This won’t affect the back-end with a realtor as they will still have their MLS and every member must be a member of a board. You’ll still have your discount options (1%, Property Guys, FSBO, whatever) and you’ll still have boutique brokerages (Rennie, TAC, etc.)… but without the Remax/RLP/C21 listings on MLS.ca you effectively kill MLS.ca and destroy its value. You’ll end up with a system much like they have in the rest of the world; an absolute disaster for the consumer.
Congratulations! You don’t know what you got till it’s gone.
August 31st, 2010 at 11:12 am
@canook, regarding “I have an alternative suggestion that may be more realistic”,
It looks very good to me, reasonable and well thought out. I think we should go further and adopt the equivalent of Trudeau’s (actually Stanfield’s) “price and wage controls” and call it the “Home Ownership Stability Plan” (HOSP). We will legislate the price drops into reality, according to the schedule that you have proposed. I nominate Pope to be an MP in the next federal riding that comes vacant, preferably a riding where there a lot of patiently waiting bears. His slogan would be “HOSPITAL” (Home Ownership Stablity Plan Is The Answer, Lads/Lassies”. Once elected, Pope can introduce HOSP as a private member’s bill. Well, it’s a thought.
August 31st, 2010 at 11:06 am
Buying land: a good way to obtain information without the help of a Realtor is to use the maps provided at:
https://www.mtonline.gov.bc.ca/mtov/home.do
then click on MINERAL MAP
You will know if there is swamp, marsh, flood, creek etc. You can also see the topography and precise satellite images. Finally, you can see the precise map of the lot and the mineral rights.
Excellent tool!
August 31st, 2010 at 10:59 am
Found equivalent in English:
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/sto.....ubble.html
August 31st, 2010 at 10:57 am
Regarding the McDonald idea of inflating away current prices over a ten year period, I have an alternative suggestion that may be more realistic. Prices drop 25% immediately, another 15% in the second, an adittional ten % in the third year and then dropping 5% annually for the remaining seven years . This would bring houses back to the mean average price where a 25% downpayment would support a mortgage based on fundamental income and give us the added benefit of wiping out any notion of speculation in the housing market. And how about a radical inclusion to this, we disallow all foriegn buyers the opportunity to purchase residential housing stock.
August 31st, 2010 at 10:56 am
Sorry, it is in French:
http://finances.ca.msn.com/act.....d=25405886
Immobilier – Une bulle menace le Canada
August 31st, 2010 at 10:45 am
Anybody want to buy a Property Guys franchise?
http://mypgu.com/
August 31st, 2010 at 10:37 am
@Renting: The Real Estate association is a Monopoly. As such, it is acting in its own best interests and preventing competetion.
Like all monopolies, this must be broken up…
August 31st, 2010 at 10:33 am
@Boombust:
I would have liked to have seen lower volume for the 2009 head and lower volume on the right shoulder than the left however “free money” is probably the cause. Do you expect volume to increase on the breakout?
August 31st, 2010 at 10:32 am
For people who are unaware, there is a way to know the sale prices in a particular area. You only get to know the sale prices of places that are already in your search criteria though. If you signed up today you only get to see sale prices of properties that sold after today.
http://www.mikestewart.ca/clientcreate.html
August 31st, 2010 at 10:26 am
After glancing through the headlines I am convinced that the articles are related to one source. The pimps and whores have decided that an attempt to frighten and threaten will be effective on swaying public opinion away from intervention on the MLS issue and they hope they hope to turn the public apathy against a rise in rates. The fact that all these articles have turned up is no coincidence. They are scared and running ‘last ditch’ strategies at what they see as serious trouble ahead for their industry should the MLS monopoly get busted. The false insistence that real estate inflation is good for the economy is of course self serving and they are obviously spending money on lobbying the BOC not to increase rates. I don’t think that the BOC can listen because of the inflation that exists in the consumer price index……not to mention that personal debt increases have had the effect of choking of future spending and a very real potential of prolonging the recession without major stimulus ( debt). Of course it makes sense that the NDP has a hand in this, they are the greatest proponents of public spending and increased taxes.
August 31st, 2010 at 10:19 am
@Inventory: Well it is raining today so I suppose there will be a huge increase in sales. After all, the sunny weather was keeping everyone from buying, right?
August 31st, 2010 at 10:16 am
@jesse: the previous sell price can be important during price negotiation.
August 31st, 2010 at 10:15 am
Super Stagnation Segment:
One of the area’s I’ve been tracking for a few years now is townhouses in Coal Harbour and False Creek North (essentially waterfront townhouses). The thing that sets my data apart from MLS data is that I don’t reset my “days listed” counter each time a property is re-listed with a new agent or MLS #. As a result, the average number of days listed of all townhouses in this area is…
358!!! Talk about stagnant listings!!!!
Of the current 28 units in this segment only 9 are under a hundred days with the worst offender at 927 days (v829368). Check out the history of this unit that has never been lived in since being completed at the end of 2007:
Initially listed: February 11 2008: $989000
Price reduced March 4 2009: $969000
Price reduced April 17 2008: $899000
Re-listed July 31 2008: $799000
Re-listed July 21 2009: $699000
Re-listed June 10 2010: $759000 (I guess the owner figured the market recovered enough to warrant an increase)
Price reduced June 24 2010: $749000
This guy has already paid $20K in maintenance fees alone with no rent! I think this place is worth no more than $400K (maybe someone should offer $444,444 and really scare the guy).
August 31st, 2010 at 10:12 am
@Mike: you have identified the only real downside that I see in decentralizing the MLS. The US system is a bit of a mish mash of sites that each seem to have their own listings. The realtor.ca system has its limitations, but at least you can see all the listings on one site.
August 31st, 2010 at 10:09 am
Re MLS
The MLS is the worst POS website I have ever used.
I hate government getting involved in anything but they should set up a site/database (or allow a private company set one up) where anyone can access and get any real estate transaction information. This should include assessed values, taxes, all past sale prices, listing activity, etc. All the info the realtors have. Maybe you pay $20 per year to access it.
Who set this system up where realtors are the only ones who can access this information? Maybe it will take a crash and a public backlash for the government to realize how much realtors skim from the system hurting home owners while providing little value, especially for the buyer. What other other industry do you need two sales people to complete a transaction?
August 31st, 2010 at 10:07 am
I just spent a few minutes on Zoocasa. I’m fairly impressed although it appears as only a fraction of the listings appear in a given neighborhood.
I think the site will really catch on if they can ensure it captures all listings. Also, I’d like to see recent comparable sales like Zillow provides.
In any event, this is a much needed development and will greatly benefit consumers.
August 31st, 2010 at 10:06 am
The report from the Center for Policy Alternatives group is a joke…..the NDP warning the banks not to raise intrest rates…’or else’?????? The bigger question is why the NDP wants to keep the bubble inflating and who they’ve just received a cheque from??????
Maybe ….or just maybe….. the pimps got a hold of the study and decided to run it as it has the pimps best intrests at heart…..pyramid scams make strange bed fellows eh?
August 31st, 2010 at 10:01 am
@Renting: I’d like to hear how the CCPA proposes to keep long rates low. Maybe they should talk to Japanese policymakers for advice
I disagree that a slow decline, if possible at all, is the “best case scenario.” When capital is mis-allocated it is a hindrance to growth. Until price-income ratios drop the economy will suffer in net.
August 31st, 2010 at 10:01 am
@Patiently Waiting: That’s the problem with this country, we’re different then everyplace else. First we didn’t have a bubble, now maybe we do and if we do, well, we’re so much smarter and more conservative then every other country whose bubble burst we’re pretty sure it will still work out for the best.
Narcissism at it’s finest.
August 31st, 2010 at 9:55 am
@Best place on meth:
This was from 2006:
Bernanke: Housing market is headed for a soft landing
August 31st, 2010 at 9:51 am
@“A-Sharp” Accountant: “That is the “value” that agents currently provide”
If you’re an FTB or investor looking to buy, previous sales prices shouldn’t matter at all IMO: it should be about the value, not what some other schmuck was willing and able to pay.
For sellers and those who are “moving up” or “moving down,” there is some value in knowing the market price but that’s because they’re on the sell side, at least in part.
For those “versed” in buying and selling, I agree there is little value a Realtor offers and after the competitors destroy the previous sales data “monopoly”, there is precisely zero value left. For those who are NOT “versed” in buying and selling, a GOOD Realtor fills the bill.
August 31st, 2010 at 9:48 am
Regarding the CCPA report.
1. “smart mortgage rate setting is needed” In other words the banks should keep rates lower than the bond rates dictate and cut into or eliminate any profits on mortgages. Sorry never going to happen.
2. To “prevent the bubbles hanging over” you need them to pop quickly. What they are suggesting will keep the bubble hanging longer.
3. “The best scenario would be to have housing prices stagnate over the next five to 10 years” Nice to see some more realistic “best case” scenarios. Lets hope people read this stuff and there are more reports like this to come. Even taking their best case scenario it makes no sense to buy for at least 5 years. Overall it is good to see stuff like this out there.
August 31st, 2010 at 9:24 am
@Purp:
I like the additional info, but would love to see on each listing:
-that house’s previous sales prices
-A list of comparable sales in area for the prev. 6 months (I know this would not be exact, but the consumer can determine what is and is not truly comparable)
That is the “value” that agents currently provide for someone who is reasonably versed in buying and selling.
Imagine trading on the stock market and not being able to get a quote without calling a broker for a “hot sheet”. INFO transparency will help buyers become more confident in buying.
August 31st, 2010 at 8:57 am
Inventory Says:
August 31st, 2010 at 1:50 am
Its a record breaking month!
Hmmm, interesting “head and shoulders patterns” in each case, for our chartist friends.
August 31st, 2010 at 8:57 am
“I’ve never seen a soft-landing in 53 years”
~Angelo Mozilo – CEO of Countrywide~
August 31st, 2010 at 8:55 am
Pete Says:
“Macdonald says the best scenario would be to have housing prices stagnate over the next five to 10 years while inflation slowly eats away at their value.”
best scenario for what?
Call it what it is, corporate welfare for the real estate industry. An entire generation should not just put off their life plans, but be taxed to support speculators and let realtors keep up their Beemer payments. That’s seriously fucked up.
August 31st, 2010 at 8:31 am
@Patiently Waiting:
“The left-wing CCPA asks the banks to try to maintain high real estate prices.”
I say…YA RIGHT! We all know what happens to bubbles-they pop. You’re right, there is NO SUCH THING AS SLOW DEFLATION! Too bad the Centre for Policy Alternatives seems to have missed the mark on this one (though identifying a bubble is a good step, I suppose). It doesn’t matter WHAT the banks do in relation to interest rates, when the party’s over, it’s over. Take a look at the US-low interest rates and yet no one’s buying. We will soon learn this sad lesson here in Canada. The stampede for the exits will soon start (or has it already)…
August 31st, 2010 at 8:29 am
Nice to see some serious challenges to the current MLS model. I like the detailed neighborhood information in Zoocasa (Incomes, demographics etc.). Makes it easy to see that price to income is well over 10 in almost every Vancouver neighborhood.
August 31st, 2010 at 8:28 am
CBC is also carrying the CCPA story:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....ubble.html
August 31st, 2010 at 8:15 am
The end of the MLS monopoly cannot come to soon. If I remember correctly a bearish blog closed down (cannot remember who it was, but he/she was giving us up-dates from the MLS data) after the got a warning from the MLS.
The days of hoarding and controlling information for the benefit of a few are gone.
BTW- how many times have you been given an MLS number and tried typing it into their site and it doesn’t register, even with the correct V pre-fix.
August 31st, 2010 at 8:13 am
“Macdonald says the best scenario would be to have housing prices stagnate over the next five to 10 years while inflation slowly eats away at their value.”
best scenario for what? Speculators emotional health? The longer that house prices slowly drop the worse the drag on the overall economy. Rip the bandaid off, let prices fall where they should and then we can go about building a real economy.
Whats better, the post 81 crash and recovery in north america or the 15 years of falling prices on Japans “lost decade”? People who bought homes to live in long term and decided the premium was worth it shouldn’t care if it’s their home and not a speculative gamble. Just because you’ve got to have that limited edition Beany baby at any price doesn’t mean everyone else feels the same.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:41 am
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1690581/
CCPA studies in graphs. I love graphs.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:03 am
@Inventory: It’s not like new unit sales cost much more for FTBs under the HST regime. Unless FTBs weren’t the ones who were buying condos, or maybe there aren’t that many FTBs left.
I just can’t see how developers can keep building apace if these conditions persist.
August 31st, 2010 at 4:55 am
MLS competition? Rob Chipman must have blood dripping out of his ear.
August 31st, 2010 at 3:12 am
Correction to last post: have to give Garth Turner credit as the first national commentator to acknowledge the national bubble. Macdonald is the second.
August 31st, 2010 at 3:08 am
Yet another article on the CCPA report:
http://www.canadianbusiness.co.....amp;page=1
BTW I just noticed Jimmy has more links about the report at the end of the previous thread.
Macdonald does break ground in being the first national commentator to talk about our housing bubble as a national concern, not just in Toronto and Vancouver. But I find it baffling that he doesn’t get it that bubbles burst; they can’t be slowly and safely deflated. The damage is done, and he should be talking about how to deal with at the after-affects of the burst. He should be asking about can we learn from other countries that are in the later stages of the burst?
August 31st, 2010 at 2:49 am
In the end, the elite all sing from the same hymnbook.
The left-wing CCPA asks the banks to try to maintain high real estate prices.
“OTTAWA — Steep housing price increases in six of Canada’s hottest real estate markets since 2002 have all the hallmarks of an “accident waiting to happen” if mortgage rates rise too sharply, warns a new report.
The report by the Centre for Policy Alternatives says smart mortgage rate setting is needed to prevent the bubbles hanging over the housing markets in Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal from bursting.
“The hottest six real-estate markets could be in for a correction at best or, at worst, a bubble burst,” writes David Macdonald, author of the report. “Rate setters at the big banks are in the driver’s seat now as mortgage rates inch up. They need to hit the breaks lightly.”
The chief concern is the price increases in those markets are outside the “historic comfort level,” which makes them much more susceptible to mortgage rate changes, the report said.
The average, inflation-adjusted house price in the cities has historically held stable at between $150,000 and $220,00 in today’s dollars. But the current average price in all six major markets now is over $300,000, it said.
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....z0yAtn1Nqa
The article finishes with:
“Macdonald says the best scenario would be to have housing prices stagnate over the next five to 10 years while inflation slowly eats away at their value.
The goal should be to get prices back to the “comfort zone” where house prices are in line with inflation, he said, and where owners will neither gain nor lose a lot of money when they sell.”
Sigh…
You can watch Macdonald defend this stupidity on CTV this morning at Noon ET, which is 9am our time.
http://www.ctv.ca/generic/gene.....90435.html
August 31st, 2010 at 1:56 am
Only one more week until the post-Labour Day fall season arrives!
Will listings pick up? Or will we continue to see total inventory drop?
We will know soon.
But man, those sales numbers are anemic!
August 31st, 2010 at 1:50 am
Its a record breaking month!
Aug Unit sales Port Coquitlam
1994 = 104
1995 = 103
1996 = 85
1997 = 88
1998 = 67
1999 = 86
2000 = 66
2001 = 86
2002 = 85
2003 = 111
2004 = 80
2005 = 116
2006 = 106
2007 = 139
2008 = 64
2009 = 117
2010 = 52 ***Aug 30
Aug Unit sales Maple Ridge
1994 = 104
1995 = 196
1996 = 141
1997 = 157
1998 = 146
1999 = 128
2000 = 121
2001 = 206
2002 = 186
2003 = 268
2004 = 158
2005 = 222
2006 = 211
2007 = 169
2008 = 108
2009 = 196
2010 = 99 ***Aug 30
August 31st, 2010 at 1:43 am
There were only 4 new houses sold at Van. West this month. Last year, 19 was sold.
August Van. West – NEW units sales (home, townhouse, condo)
1994 = 53
1995 = 72
1996 = 148
1997 = 220
1998 = 72
1999 = 144
2000 = 57
2001 = 90
2002 = 56
2003 = 89
2004 = 85
2005 = 138
2006 = 99
2007 = 96
2008 = 30
2009 = 94
2010 = 22 ***Aug 30
August 31st, 2010 at 1:40 am
All time low! The market for new condo’s have crashed.
August Van. West – New Condo sales
1994 = 32
1995 = 40
1996 = 120
1997 = 198
1998 = 59
1999 =123
2000 = 49
2001 = 77
2002 = 49
2003 = 71
2004 = 73
2005 = 105
2006 = 87
2007 = 74
2008 = 24
2009 = 60
2010 = 16 ***Aug 30
August 31st, 2010 at 1:38 am
One more day to go, month end sales will be down 38%
Aug
1994 = 2159
1995 = 2326
1996 = 2141
1997 = 2096
1998 = 1589
1999 = 2002
2000 = 1805
2001 = 2659
2002 = 2558
2003 = 3413
2004 = 2570
2005 = 3800
2006 = 3092
2007 = 3493
2008 = 1611
2009 = 3496
2010 = 2108 ***Aug 30