US condos for less than a new car
Last month we showed you what kind of car you could get for the monthly drop in benchmark house prices in some Vancouver neighborhoods. Along a similar theme, reader Avatar points out this round up of 8 condos in the US that cost less than a new car. This one bedroom 770 sq foot condo in Florida is going for $25k:
The condo is spacious and has a half bath, a screened porch, wood floors and is in move-in condition, according to agent Jana Brittenum of Keyes Real Estate. The corner location in the complex gives it nice garden views.
The condo community has good recreational facilities with a swimming pool, clubhouse and exercise area, but maintenance charges are a modest $180 a month.
The last time the unit sold was in 2005 when it went for $115,000. Why so inexpensive now? For one thing, it’s a short sale, which the lender will have to approve. Also, the condo association’s bylaws prohibit renters, so any buyers would have to want to live there.
See the Full article at CNN.com
August 3rd, 2010 at 7:19 pm 1
pretty sad that us little guys are waiting for 1mil westside approval – sorry price is dropping – everything by 30% – hello Dunbar!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 3rd, 2010 at 10:20 pm 2
Why on earth would I get 12-15 Florida condos when I can get one super dodgy east side condo for a little more?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 3rd, 2010 at 10:28 pm 3
Regarding McLovin's friend's predicament, from the last thread:
@Confused_among_rich_asians: "how would this decision be considered inferior to selling or losing money (except for opportunity cost)"
——–
Without factoring in the opportunity cost of the 25% downpayment over 10 years, all the math doesn't mean much. Only ignorant investors will avoid doing the real math, and try to stick with these properties.
Smart investors would take the 100K loss now and move on.
Not doing that would expose them to (a) unexpected downside (assessments; tenants; deflation) and (b) the psychological weight of the chronic losing investment. The latter could cripple their ability to take better opportunities over the next ten years and perhaps for longer.
The clue to how McLovin's friend should have acted comes in the first line of the anecdote:
"A friend of mine bought at the Waterscapes Skye development in 2008 (pre-construction) hoping to flip the property."
If the premise for an investment disappears, get out.
The premise here was a quick flip. That failed; Get out; Take the loss; Move on.
One of the very biggest mistakes in investing is to change the premise of the trade after the fact, when the trade goes bad.
What McLovin's friend has done is tell himself that a day-trade is part of his long-term core portfolio.
That way madness lies.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 3rd, 2010 at 11:38 pm 4
Here is the latest what Vancouver Sun had to say about RE in their business section:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/…
The title of the story is: "Canucks eyeing new practice rink in False Creek area"
Well, if that is not RE news, I don't know what is!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 3rd, 2010 at 11:52 pm 5
It looks like comments are getting deleted if they get voted down too much. Can't say I'm a fan of this. While many of them are pure dross and deserve to be panned, there have been some decent contrarian arguments that get treated the same way. Delete them and you end up with an echo chamber and that doesn't make for a very lively comment section.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 3rd, 2010 at 11:57 pm 6
@chip:
Really?
Not that I'm for the reckless deleting of comments, but when was the last time you saw an honest bull argument that was in "foreclosure"?
Good Bull arguments don't get thumbed way up, but they don't usually make it into the bottom either.
To prove it, I'll post a reasonable honest bull argument anonymously and lets see if it gets deleted. (not today…but later)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 3rd, 2010 at 11:59 pm 7
Here is a condo on the north (desirable) side of Atlanta that sold for less than $18/ft! Didn't they have some sort of sporting competition there in the 90's?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:05 am 8
Hey guys,
Stop dreaming of price drops. Soon the inflation is going to raise the cost of everything, including housing.
Instead of these rootless arguments look at the condo tracker, which is sharply declining. As of now it is 419. It used to be above 600. That's more than 33% drop in inventory.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:14 am 9
@Alum:
The cost of borrowing money is the interest rate. What would double digit interest rates do to house prices? Hint: 1980's.
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/ResidentialRea…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:16 am 10
Bear did you look at picture of condo? Are you property expert bear? Do you know where Deerfield FL is bear? It's long drive from Deerfield to Miami bear. Too many waitress in that area already too. The real question you ask when looking at condo ad bear is would 24 year old murse live there? Answer is no to this one.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:16 am 11
So if the Canucks get a new practice rink for $20+million (yikes!) will they play better? Probably not… Why don't they invest that money in better coaching and management? The reason why I comment on this is because it sort of parallels Vancouver R/E where decisions are made that make no sense and don't follow any logic, plus no real value is derived from it. The ironic thing is people will pay big bucks to watch the Canucks lose, so it's a Win for the team anyways!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:19 am 12
@chip: We've never deleted a comment for being bullish. Rather than restore those 5 comments, I'll post their contents here so you can decide if it's unreasonable censorship or just garbage clean up. These were all posted by the same IP between 3:04 and 3:21 am:
Thats the entirety of the deleted comments. Those take up a lot less space like that than they do as the first five comments on the thread. Still unhappy with the deletions? Because we can restore those comments if you'd like.
Generally we leave 'first post' type comments to the moderation system, but if the first five comments are a flood of senseless ramblings I see no reason not to remove them, just as we would for LOSE WEIGHT NOW spam comments.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:27 am 13
@“A-Sharp” Accountant: See two comment up. (Comment #8). Classic group think bear.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:34 am 14
@superduperbulltime:
Is that the best that you got?
Deerfield is 1/2 hour north of Fort Lauderdale. That's not too far unless you're overleveraged on your mortgage payments and don't have enough even for public transportation.
Using your argument about the distance from the big city, I guess that's why Kelowna RE is tanking.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:39 am 15
@patriotz:
"The cost of borrowing money is the interest rate. What would double digit interest rates do to house prices? Hint: 1980’s."
This time around the government owns such a large portion of the mortgage market, that they might just freeze the mortgage rates. Look what is going on in the US: they are talking about automatically refinancing all federally insured mortgages out with a lower interest rate.
The unfortunate truth is with almost 70% of voters being homeowners, the housing market is too important to fail. So the most likely scenario is that money confiscated from savers through inflation will be given to indebted homeowners.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:42 am 16
I'm with VREAA.
@ McLovin: Ask you friend what proportion of his investment portfolio this property represents.
Considering that no single investment should exceed around 5% (this is an investment property, not a principal residence), I'm guessing he's a little over weighted.
It's a tough choice to make, but when you ballpark the odds on potential losses and compare them to the odds on potential gains, it really does seem a little asinine to hold onto it. This is the entire fundamental premise of investing. Risk/Reward. It's the reason people buy GICs; your money is safe and you get a small return. It's the reason people buy start ups; your money is heavily at risk, and you might make a killer return.
And, it's the reason that it's a bad time to invest in Vancouver RE; your money is heavily at risk, and the likely hood of a big return is very small.
To think that having an asset that comprises over 5% of your portfolio with that sort of risk/reward profile is a good idea, is foolish. To think that having an asset that comprises over 50% of your portfolio with that sort of risk/reward profile is a good idea, is completely asinine.
So, is your friend a fool or an ass?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:44 am 17
@superduperbulltime:
Bear did you look at picture of condo? Are you property expert bear? Do you know where Deerfield FL is bear? It’s long drive from Deerfield to Miami bear. Too many waitress in that area already too. The real question you ask when looking at condo ad bear is would 24 year old murse live there? Answer is no to this one.
—————————-
What an argument! LOL When it was sold for $115k in 2005, then it was completely different geographical area, right? And the neighbors – all doctors, lawyers and engineers… absolutely no riffraff
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:56 am 18
"This time around the government owns such a large portion of the mortgage market, that they might just freeze the mortgage rates."
They can't.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:05 am 19
Chip has a point, more tuning would be valuable. Commonly mod points are detracted not for what you say but who you contradict. Moderation for registered users only, and publicly displayed?
Back on topic, a good thread to bust this classic out:
http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/3606/saleincen…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:17 am 20
@“A-Sharp” Accountant:
I'm not a bull and wasn't referring just to bullish comments. But I have seen some posts that, while I don't particularly agree with them, get voted down pretty quickly because they make a point that perhaps five people in a row don't like.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:19 am 21
@The Pope:
That makes sense. There was a discussion a while back to automatically delete posts that reached a certain number of negative votes, and I thought it was being implemented.
I'm glad it's not. Thanks.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:21 am 22
I think The Pope is doing us all a great service and we're here at his sufferance. This is his blog – he can delete anything he'd like, but generally only deletes nonsense and leaves us to react to the rest.
The moderation of blogs is a contentious and long-running internet issue, and there is simply no way for The Pope to make everyone happy. If you don't feed trolls, they don't wreck a place – we can each help create the blog we want with our own behaviour.
And thanks to the Pope for creating this space for us all.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:22 am 23
Uh oh. Even the Chinese are getting "skittish". Here is a recent Bloomberg article.
Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) — China’s banking regulator told lenders last month to conduct a new round of stress tests to gauge the impact of residential property prices falling as much as 60 percent in the hardest-hit markets, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
Banks were instructed to include worst-case scenarios of prices dropping 50 percent to 60 percent in cities where they have risen excessively, the person said, declining to be identified because the regulator’s requirement hasn’t been publicly announced. Previous stress tests carried out in the past year assumed home-price declines of as much as 30 percent.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:31 am 24
@flip_this:
The Soviet Union was too important to fail, but it did.
The US RE market was too important to fail, but it did.
The Irish RE market was too important to fail, but it did.
The Spanish RE market was too important to fail, but it did.
Governments cannot beat economic fundamentals long run.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:48 am 25
@FlipFlop: "Considering that no single investment should exceed around 5%…"
why?
This is a little too "heuristic" for me. I agree with the bulk of your post, but there are many cases in which this "rule of thumb" breaks down.
People always talk about Hedging and diversification.
If you want to avoid risk completely…then do not invest.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:16 am 26
"If you want to avoid risk completely"
Fortunately, taking risks is not an all or nothing position. At least, some of us understand that.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:19 am 27
Home sales activity in Greater Vancouver was quieter last month than most Julys over the past decade, with residential sales, prices, and the number of homes listed for sale trending downward in recent months.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that the number of residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,255 in July 2010. This represents a 45.2 per cent decline from the 4,114 sales in July 2009, the highest selling July ever recorded, and a 24.1 per cent decline compared to June 2010.
http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports/homebuyers-a…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:23 am 28
@Teddy Bear:
Wow, the city can add 7000 residents just like that?
I though we were running out of land?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:26 am 29
@chip: No problem. I'm not in favor of automatically deleting posts because of the problem mentioned: they get voted down for opinion.
I vote up comments I disagree with if they are honestly presented. It seems like the ideal scenario would be to have two scores. One for agree/disagree and one for spam/troll/garbage.
We don't give comment rating to registered users only because the majority of registered users here are of the same opinion: Vancouver real estate is overpriced. Registered users do get double the voting power of unregistered though, because they tend to add more to the discussion and community.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:32 am 30
Direct link to July stats here.
Why in the hell REBGV doesn't provide the direct link in their press release or ANYWHERE on their website is beyond me. Makes me feel dirty going to realtor websites looking for the link . . .
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:32 am 31
@ Pope. Thx for the explanation.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:33 am 32
@patriotz: I've disagreed with you on the past regarding what the government is capable of.
The government controls the supply of money and can therefore considerably influence prices. However, government interference in pricing disrupts markets and impairs long term productivity.
Government intrusion is generally limited to the will of its citizenry. If a government's policy actions are unpopular, they will not be voted in the next time around. Therefore, governments generally act to satisfy the will of its citizens. They need to get re-elected.
I agree 100% that government will ultimately take the position that the housing market is too big to fail. Households have way too much debt and most of their wealth in housing. Most baby boomers plan to rely on the equity in their homes to finance their retirement.
Read this article re. future Quantitative Easing south of the border:
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/stabilizi…
One example of future simulus is discussed as follows: "The bigger inflation event (QE3?) would use newly created base money for the immediate benefit of debtors. Sending checks to indebted homeowners made out to their creditors would be an example of quantitative easing that would be popular among the masses and economically stimulative. It would allow a new credit bubble to expand and prices of goods, services and assets to increase. We think this form of QE — broad debt socialization – is inevitable."
Once you see house prices fall 20% nationally and our economy tank as a result, watch the public cry for stimulus…and the government will respond.
Deflation should be embraced. Unfortunately, it won't. Too many people are too comfortable in jobs only supported by credit expansion.
One thing is for certain – no asset will go up in relation to gold and agricultural commodities over the next decade…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:50 am 33
@ Anonymous
Hedging and diversification are really 2 different beasts entirely.
Hedging is meant to counter balance the risk of a specific position, and really shouldn't be of much concern for your average investor.
Diversification, on the other hand, should be of PRIMARY concern for your average investor. With the exception of cash, holding more than 5% of your portfolio in a single asset is just bad investing (hence the popularity of Mutual Funds).
An exception to this rule might be starting your own business, where the luxury of diversification cannot necessarily be afforded. But, if you're holding an asset strictly for performance (especially a leveraged asset like RE), the 5% rule is generous, if anything. You could probably say 2%.
You have to understand that an educated investor (something every investor should strive to be) will have a general understanding of the risk premium of his/her portfolio. The more risk he/she takes, the more potential for significant returns the portfolio should have. The market is full of investments that trade risk for reward; why would you hold an investment in Van RE when you've already admitted to yourself that the potential risk far outweighs the potential reward? You might as well cash out and put the leftover equity on red or black (ie. it's probably a better risk/reward trade off than your current Van RE investment).
Holding 20 separate companies across 10 different market segments isn't going to get you rich over night, but it's also not going to land you in the poor house.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:50 am 34
"watch the public cry for stimulus…and the government will respond."
Yes, they will respond. With very expensive window dressing. Did you notice how that worked out in the US? Did they throw a lot of money and resources at the problem? Yes. Did they arrest the price decline? No.
Enjoy your pork bellies!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:52 am 35
FRASER VALLEY HOME BUYERS TAKE HOLIDAY IN JULY
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) processed 1,101 sales on its Multiple
Listing Service (MLS®) in July, a decrease of 47 per cent compared to the 2,089 sales during the same
month last year and down 39 per cent compared to June.
Read more here
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:53 am 36
@ Mike. That's the banana republic 'solution'. Printing money and sending cheques to citizens is an even worse distortion of the market that will destroy the economy faster than any housing crash. The piper always gets paid.
If prosperity could be generated by vote no one would need to work. It doesn't matter how many home owners want it.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:58 am 37
July stats package released. Here are the total % benchmark price changes from April to July:
Residential (GVRD)
Greater Vancouver: -3%
DETACHED
Greater Vancouver: -3%
Burnaby: -2%
Coquitlam: -5%
Maple Ridge: -3%
New Westminster: 3%
North Vancouver: -3%
Pitt Meadows: -7%
Port Coquitlam: -7%
Port Moody: -3%
Richmond: -3%
South Delta: -5%
Vancouver East: -3%
Vancouver West: -4%
West Vancouver: -3%
ATTACHED
Greater Vancouver: -2%
Burnaby: 0%
Coquitlam: -5%
Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows: -2%
North Vancouver: -4%
Port Coquitlam: 0%
Port Moody: -6%
Richmond: 1%
South Delta: -1%
Vancouver East: -8%
Vancouver West: -4%
APARTMENT
Greater Vancouver: -2%
Burnaby: -2%
Coquitlam: 0%
Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows: -2%
New Westminster: -3%
North Vancouver: -2%
Port Coquitlam: -1%
Port Moody: 0%
Richmond: 0%
South Delta: -2%
Vancouver East: -5%
Vancouver West: -3%
West Vancouver: -12%
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:10 am 38
@crashcow:
Finally, the stats are out. Anyone with a link to them yet?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:10 am 39
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
Where have all the buyers gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the buyers gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the buyers gone?
Gone to foreclosure every one
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:12 am 40
“watch the public cry for stimulus…and the government will respond.”
Simulus for what? Average Canadian RE prices will not decline significantly enough for it to be called a "crisis" requiring stimulus.
Only Vancouver will be a bloodbath but that is not a Federal problem. The federal government will not spend taxpayer money for a bunch of idiots in electorally insignificant Vancouver.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:15 am 41
@crashcow: Whoah those are bullish numbers! No wait. They're not.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:25 am 42
@Mike:
Agree with whom? You may see some window dressing such as a buyer's tax credit or reduction in PTT, but that's it. Which will only serve to pull a bit of demand forward as it has elsewhere. The last rabbit was pulled out of the hat with the interest rate drop in late 2008 and there are no more left.
No federal or provincial government is going to take the position that they can keep the housing market from falling because it can't be done and they know it. If it could be done it would already have been done in the US, Ireland, etc.
In addition, your phrasing "housing market is too big to fail" is wrong. The housing market is failing RIGHT NOW because prices are out of proportion to fundamentals. A bust is not a market failure, but a market success – a return to fundamentals.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:26 am 43
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/61991476/
So this guy is says there is a "pool of global buyers, folks like me who are sitting in Chicago" waiting to buy.
Does that mean rich Chinese are buying in North America, and rich North Americans are buying china? I wonder if there is a bizarro Chinese real estate blog where bulls argue about the rich North Americans are buying up everything.
Kind of reminds me of when I see two lumber transport trucks passing each other in opposite directions on the highway.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:27 am 44
Here they are…
http://hudsonhometeam.com/_media/Documents/Statis…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:27 am 45
Here is a link to the stats.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:33 am 46
Vancouver West benchmark detached down only $15,000 on the month. That's a smidge under 1%.
Disappointing.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:34 am 47
We are currently in the third month of falling average prices and the second month of falling benchmark prices.
The collapse is here and we are still at the beginning.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:34 am 48
@Mike: You are refuting your own point by using US as an example. The US FED threw trillions of dollars at the economy, and they stimulated nothing except stock market speculation. No jobs, no growth, and real estate prices and loans, residential and commercial, still on the floor bleeding. Deflation of all sorts as far as the eye can see.
Rates are zero. Money is cheap. There's nothing left. Giving money away is clearly not working. You can't prop up a bubble indefinitely. You can only postpone with exponentially growing debt. One way or another it will pop. No bubble in history has leveled off, don't look for a soft landing based on any government action, although they will "do something about it" and then claim it would have been much worse without their intervention.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:45 am 49
"Home sales activity in Greater Vancouver was quieter last month…"
Certainly not as "spinmeisterish" as I thought it would be.
Hmm, what's up?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:47 am 50
@Mike: The government has already interfered in the housing market, see what prices did in the last year and a half. In the US prices leveled off with a massive stimulus package but only after falling significantly from peak prices. In Canada prices increased 10-15%.
It's worth doing the exercise to understand how much money is required to perpetually prop up the housing market. In Canada, with, say, 3% housing turnover from a stock of 12.5MM households is about 375K transactions. To keep prices at 10% above fundamentals at an average price of $300K requires $11 billion per year of direct stimulus, or 1% of GDP. Not out of the realm of possibility.
But if other areas of the economy need help it's going to be a tough call propping up an unproductive asset class with no potential for future growth compared to diverting it to other areas that show more potential. I agree the endgame looks like a slow bleed but the system may be over constrained. I think we're talking the difference between 1% and 2% monthly declines. Either way the direction is down.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:47 am 51
@patriotzed:
"The last rabbit was pulled out of the hat with the interest rate drop in late 2008 and there are no more left."
Except by raising rates in the last couple of months they've given themselves room to lower them again.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:54 am 52
@VRENGD: We're in the third month of falling benchmarks
Greater Vancouver Residential Benchmark
April $593,419
May $590,662
June $580,237
July $577,074
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:56 am 53
@crashcow:
Interesting comparison between April and July. For someone that bought in Apr with a minimal downpayment, it almost got wiped out in 4 months. (depending on which part of town of course). Ouch!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 3:59 am 54
Haha, I like how they use the word "quieter." Makes one think of calm, peace. Nothing to see here folks, move along, move along, things are just "quiet". Shhhh……
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 4:13 am 55
Hey Metal…
Check out the 5% MOM benchmark detached decline in Abbotsford.
I've been watching price declines in my FAV neighborhoods but had not yet seen it dramatically in the stats…well here it is.
I'm curious to see what the prices are doing on eagle (hurricane) mountain.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 4:23 am 56
@anonymous:
"Quieter". Well, it's the calm during the storm. Remember, it's different here.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 4:31 am 57
Here is blog instruction for newbie bitter renter bears:
1) Read stupid blog post at top
2) Vote down all bull argument if any found
3) Make up "anecdote" about sister/brother/friend who bought and has no money
4) Feel better about being waitress instead of being 24 year old murse
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 4:33 am 58
Can someone post the REB package? That link posted earlier keeps shutting down my internet.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 4:34 am 59
@ A #
Yeah, FVREB stats were very interesting and not very surprising to me, as you probably know by following my posts on RET lately.
I think those sellers on Eagle Mountain asking over a mil. for their homes are going to be in for a rough ride this next year.
http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&…
Funny thread. liesthebye has mentioned how many times how much his/her house has gone up this last year.
"We didn't anticipate this level of change" Deanna Horn, FVREB President.
hoocouldanode?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 4:35 am 60
The magnitude of price declines was lower this month and significantly more volatile from region to region (with some actually positive). The increased volatility could be because of lower sales figures in general, but who knows.
I posted the monthly price declines by percentage by region and also the price declines relative to peak, and then annualized.
The real question now is how the lower sales figures will translate into changes in sale prices.
http://pissmeoffvancouver.blogspot.com/2010/08/mo…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 4:37 am 61
Here is blog instruction for newbie nervous marginal condo flippers:
1) Read stupid blog post at top
2) Look for good bull argument, if/when not found, make stupid troll argument
3) List the holy trinity of RE in the LM, "Running out of land, Chinese are coming, RE only goes up" – repeat three times
4) Wash, rinse, repeat
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 4:54 am 62
Globe and Mail healine:
Vancouver homes market goes cold
City now a ‘buyer’s market’ as July sales drop 45 per cent from last year
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 4:57 am 63
Global TV News had Sarah Daniels (Now a realtor/former broadcaster) on at noon today.
She was reasonbly candid about the latest stats…however, she later said she expects "…September to be VERY busy".
They just don't give it up, do they?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 5:15 am 64
@jesse:
Infinitely much. As long as prices remain above fundamentals more housing will be built than people need to live in. With manufactured goods or commodities you can dump them at lower prices outside the country. With houses you can't. The excess supply will result in falling rents which cause further deterioration of fundamentals.
Also, unless prices keep rising, speculators will bail. Keeping prices at a high flat line isn't good enough.
Exponential real price growth is required to keep a bubble going, and that cannot continue indefinitely.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 5:23 am 65
BTW today I drove past my old luxury condo rental in downtown Calgary…..it is still empty, you could see right thru the open windows into the suite…..so, for 2 months in a row now, it has generated ZERO in revenue…..ZERO……
By not giving us a mere $100 a month decrease on our rent back in June when you our lease was due for renewal, the landlord has now lost $3,000 of income upfront due to the vacancy ($250 a month x 12, and that’s not counting the parking stall we also rented from them)…….
Seems like a good business decision for them…..no ? Lose $3,000 in 60 days to maintain $1,200 a year if you can rent it back out ? But you can’t…..for 2 months now you’ve been trying and month 3 will soon be here….
I will report back in the first week of September…..landlords are such retards.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 5:23 am 66
@Boombust: "September to be VERY busy"
For listings maybe
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 5:27 am 67
@Boombust:
I also expect September to be very busy, with a flurry of new listings from people who were asleep during the summer.
When they wake up they're going to be pissed.
As for this months meager 0.5% overall decline in prices, it doesn't concern me at all.
The rollercoaster has only just cleared the summit, it picks up speed on the way down.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 5:27 am 68
@VHB: "Yes, they will respond. With very expensive window dressing. Did you notice how that worked out in the US? Did they throw a lot of money and resources at the problem? Yes. Did they arrest the price decline? No."
They have only started. Read that link. Markets are up 10% in the past couple weeks because Bernanke and Ballard promised to act when needed. The markets are beginning to price in more and more stimulus. This ain't over by a long shot.
I argue against investing in housing at these prices. That said, don't ingore the macroeconomics. This is a balance sheet recession and the rule book is out the window!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 5:30 am 69
@fixie guy: Completely agree. Please don't get the impression that I recommend the Banana Republic response. I'm not speaking in favour of it.
I'm merely stating that my analysis and my understanding of our society leads me to believe that this is the path the government will follow.
Like it or not. It is what's coming. Protect and profit.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 5:35 am 70
@VRENGD: Have you been to Toronto lately, my friend?
I have. If you think they don't have a bubble of Vancouver's magnitude, you should check it out first hand. Take a drive down Lakeshore and marvel at all the new condos.
The bubble is the worst in Vancouver, which is why I think nominal prices here fall more than anywhere else. That said, the bubble is very much alive in Edmonton, Calgary and Toronto. The bubble is by no means exclusive to Vancouver.
All I'm saying is to expect more distortions and more interference and the consequence in inflation, which will manifest itself in higher gold prices and agriculture commodities.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 5:39 am 71
WHY would September be "very busy", I wonder? Just because the summer is dead, somehow people are going to be encouraged to run out and buy in September instead? With interest rate hikes coming? And no real panic to buy because prices aren't rising quickly anymore, thus eliminating the worry of being "priced out forever." I guess she had to say something to appease the sheeple. What will they be saying when the REAL price reductions come…oh I know, just like in the US, there will be talk of a "recovery" in real estate ie "next spring, next summer, next fall" Right. Well, we know how that recovery is going in the US, don't we?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 5:40 am 72
@patriotzed: "Exponential real price growth is required to keep a bubble going"
Yes, the, say, 1% of GDP actually compounds year over year, not to mention the secondary effects you mention. Governments realize this which is why any stimulus is temporary.
I think the best question to ask is what will, not what should, be done.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:03 am 73
@jesse: You again completely misunderstand economics. This is a counterpoint to what you're saying: http://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2010/07/money-and-…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:04 am 74
"WHY would September be “very busy”, I wonder?"
That's what I would like to know, too. I e-mailed her and asked her that question.
When/if she gets back to me, I'll let you know her answer.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:05 am 75
@Mike:
Inflation would inevitably result in much higher interest rates, which would bring about a fast and massive RE collapse.
That's the paradox. The RE decline of 2008 was reversed because the prospect of deflation brought about lower interest rates. But deflation means falling incomes and rents. Which means falling RE prices even at near-zero interest rates. Maybe a slow decline, but inevitably a decline, like in Japan.
The RE market cannot be saved by inducing inflation, and the PTB cannot and will not induce inflation to this end. If they induce inflation it will be because they have decided to write off the RE market to achieve other goals.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:13 am 76
@vreaa: Not quite. Opportunity costs for the downpayment is irrelevant here because that money is already spent, it's a sunk cost. Opportunity cost might be used when deciding if the condo should be bought in the first place or not. Since the condo is already bought, there is no point in including opportunity cost anymore. The only thing that matters right now is what's the best option going forward.
His friend has basically two choices, sell now and take $100K loss right up front, or sell later. If his friend believes that the price will go back to $600K then selling later is the right decision. Now I know people will say there is no way the condo will sell for $600K after 10 years but that's your believe, not a certainty. We can only be certain of a future outcome after it has happened in the future. Until then we are just working with likely probability of something happening. To say otherwise means you have the ability to predict the future.
If his friend does not believe he can sell for $600K then it becomes a question of what he thinks will the loss if he holds for 10 years versus what he can get for seling it now and the amount he will get if he invested the proceeds of sales for the next 10 years. Which ever outcome his friends predicts give the bigger termainal value after 10 years would be the correct action to take.
So if his friend believes he can get $600K for the condo after 10 years then the right action is to hold.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:21 am 77
@Dear Jesse: I couldn't figure out what that post was trying to say. Sounded like a lot of guys trying to debunk the financial diaspora. Or something.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:21 am 78
@Boombust: Maybe all the rich asians toke the summer off and went to the Shanghai worlds fair. Oh wait, there are 50 of them coming from China in August!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:31 am 79
@Dear Jesse: Actually my last post wasn't fair. The post was interesting but I still don't see how it has much to do with the notion that propping up asset bubbles requires geometrically increasing money.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:35 am 80
@ space889
There is opportunity cost to be factored into existing equity still in the property (after the $100k loss is realized). Plus the tax write-off on the loss.
It still stands that having more than 5% of your portfolio wrapped up in an investment like this is crazy IMHO.
Let's not forget that the odds of him making the $100k back in 10 years are just as likely as him losing another $100k in value on the property before that happens. Lose your job, get sick or be forced to move in the coming years and you may find yourself up shit's crick without a paddle.
Compare the scenario to realizing the loss, taking advantage of the tax implications, and investing the remainder in a growth based mutual fund (plus the $700 annuity that hasn't taken into account special assessments, bad tenants and increased interest rates) and even if it does come back to $600K, you're not going to be too worse off with A LOT less risk.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:36 am 81
@space889: Sell now…
Bleeding $700/mth for the first five years (assuming 100% rental, no damage, no increase in property tax, no increase in strata, no special assessment..etc) will result in a loss of $42k.
Then assume the same, plus that interest rates do not rise at time of renewal, will result in a further loss of $42k for a total loss of $84k just from being cash flow negative.
Sell now with a loss of $100k and invest the $700/mth that he was bleeding monthly. At 3% return, that would result in interest income of about $14k for a net loss of $86k.
I'd sell now. Too many variables going forward 10 years.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:40 am 82
1) First 10 planeloads expected to arrive in August.
2) In the past years, Taiwanese-Canadians have returned to the LM to enroll their children in schools and bought properties to settle down for good. You hear this only from ethnic media and the number is considerable even though Statscan's new arrival does not show a big jump.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:42 am 83
@patriotzed: You are right. Inflation ought to lead to higher interest rates…
Which is why I made reference to QE where the government would bailout debtors by making housing payment on their behalf.
You need to understand the dynamics of a balance sheet restructuring, which is the first we've seen since the great depression. The powers that be studied the great depression and concluded that it could have been avoided with inflation and stimulus. Bernanke even wrote a paper about it where he referenced dropping money out of helicopters. Carney is from the same school.
I do not agree with the conclusions reached and side with the Austrians who suggest that a sever recession was inevitable given the run-up in credit and it was government, who prevented the liquidation of bad debts, meddled, established price controls and imposed misguided regulation, who created the depression.
In any event, I agree with you on what ought to happen given the current environment. That said, I expect the government will impose itself in more ways than you can imagine, which at some point will put a floor under house prices.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 6:56 am 84
@Mike: What about optics for the cons? They've been touting that there is no bubble. Would there not be political fall-out? Either way, it appears that it's a no-win situation. I guess a bailout could be the lesser of two evils.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 7:03 am 85
They either print money or fund it from taxes, each disastrous. "Elect us, we'll tax the piss out of you to prop Vancouver and Toronto speculation." Should play well in Quebec.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 7:08 am 86
Why do people insist on calling it a "buyers market" when prices are falling? How exactly does a buyer benefit if the house he buys today is going to be worth much less in the future?
We're a mere 3 months past the peak of the largest housing bubble of all time, in the most bubbly city in the world. This is going to take years to bottom out. Only then will it be a "buyers market".
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 7:09 am 87
@Anonymous: I don't things look great for the Conservatives. They'll probably blame the housing bust on Europe or the United States or a crash in China. They'll blame any downturn on global economic woes and hope that works.
It doesn't really matter. The Liberals and Conservatives represent the same thing but at different ends of the spectrum.
When I refer to the government, I don't necessarily refer to it as one party. It is our society who refuses to take responsibility and our reliance on the nanny state. We won't see real change and productivity until we embrace liberty and self dependence.
All the stuff in between – Conservatives – Liberals – etc. is just noise in a secular decline.
The only thing I can do is protect the wealth I've accumulated.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 7:12 am 88
@Mike:
Do you have a link, or even a reference to this paper? I know that in a talk he gave, Bernanke referred to a quip by Milton Friedman about dropping money from helicopters, but was unsware that he had referenced it in one of his papers.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 7:16 am 89
@fixie guy: Those are the options – print money or fund it from taxes – I suspect we'll see a combination of the two.
However, at the moment there is no political appetite for budget deficits or higher taxes. We'll have to see a leg down before the masses cry uncle.
Prices will fall from here in nominal terms. 20% at a minimum. This is when the public will start to panic. Remember…all the stuff we've witnessed since the credit crunch was never dreamed of in 2004. We're writing a new book. Expect future chapters to be more and more absurd.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 7:17 am 90
@Mike:
That is utter fantasy. If the government even floated a trial balloon on such a thing we'd be paying Greek-level interest rates by the end of the day.
You have to understand that governments cannot enact crazy fiscal policies without consequences. The inflation and deficits of the late 60's and 70's resulted in high interest rates that persisted until the late 90's.
And no matter what, the bust will go on anyway. So what's the point of the government trashing the whole economy for a lost cause?
The least damaging course both economically and politically for the Cons will be to do nothing. The Cons completely ignored the Alberta bust of 2007 where prices dropped 20%, and suffered no political consequences. Why should they do anything differently in the future? Do you think the good voters of Calgary would be happy to see the Cons bailing out BC after they got nothing?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 7:30 am 91
@patriotz: Desperate times call for desperate measures. We have two choices here, 1) inflate or 2) default.
Which road do you think we'll follow. Expect the unexpected. A housing bust is the least of our future problems.
And NO – I do not expect future QE to come without future consequences.
We'll meet in 2015 and I bet I'm right!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 7:43 am 92
@Mike:
I don't think we are in desperate times. Challenging times, but not tough. Tough was WWI, the Great Depression and WWII.
High inflation rates are not in the cards because there is too much extra manufacturing and labour capacity.
Money will remain cheap as a stimulus and will enable consumers to rebuild their balance sheets. Some will default in the short term, which will slow growth going forward. Those with skills and the ability to earn will do well. It's a good time to be in debt.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 7:43 am 93
@ Mike
A third option to consider is abusing immigration quotas to keep demand inflated. I still can't piece together why Harper is trashing the 2011 Census, the 'kinder-gentler' gambit is the worst kind of cynical joke and 100% unjustified. Who complained?
Still, it's no longer the Eighties and with a global investment community scouring nations for exactly the sort of behaviour you suggest it's not going to fly. Don't discount voter irrationality either, they may want to see taxes bail them out but no one wants to pay the taxes to do it.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 8:11 am 94
I went through Mayor Moonbeams Kits stronghold today . The for sale signs have sprouted like mushrooms on a steaming pile of shit…….ubiquitous. I said to myself "Hmmmmmmmmmm, the sheep are feeling antsy". Naturally I laughed because I could smell the scent of the wolf in the air now that Rennies perfumed farts have been blown off the bloom of 'never never land'.
I had to meet a client in a Chinese joint on 4th…the food mediocre as it turns out…nothing like the Richmond standard. It seemes Kitsolanianians don't know shit about decent food and get ripped off while happily lowing in the cradle of grace provided by an inheritance from grandma.
My client, a mid level movie personality, wanted to talk about RE….I began to explain reality to him and the chop shop went as silent as those EF Hutton commercials years ago. I realized I had a captive audience of middle aged douchebags and a few thirty somethings with lots to lose….so I raised my melodic voice and started telling my client about what he wasn't hearing on the TV or reading in the local propaganda papers……and why.
I could hear the sphincters tightening around the room….right through the ridiculous Lululemon spandex and de rigeur Capri mens 'sports pants'. I must say…if you're a guy, wearing Capri pants in public and aren't out of the closet…..well……you should consider it…..it looks gay and you look like a first rate douchebag. The puckering assholes sounded like a twisted balloon animal. I could smell the denial wafting through the room.
I got the impression that the Kits pseudo humans are neck deep in the kool aid and can't imagine the horror of a static…let alone falling market as I was outlining with charts and graphs on my mobile. I have a NOKIA NSeries, it makes the Black berry and IPhone look like childrens rattles by comparison of tech tricks, speed and scope.
By the time I downloaded the most recent Bloomberg article on the stress test on banks in China and the information about how the shit is hitting the fan around the world the room had gone dead silent. It was as if these douchebags had no idea what was going on outside the stinky little shithole aka Vancouver. Just my observances…but there are a huge number of people here who haven't a clue whats coming. The conflagration should be spectacular.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 8:19 am 95
@Mike: "Which is why I made reference to QE where the government would bailout debtors by making housing payment on their behalf. "
Please note this is not QE. Quantitative easing is about targeting segments of the yield curve and making longer term dept cheaper for the borrower. Through arbitrage it drops the yield of all other debt denoted in that currency.
What you are referring to is a bailout of debtors; They aren’t purchasing any assets. This would have to be enacted by the Treasury not the Fed. However, I will agree this is one possible solution to the problem in the US but I don't agree with you that this policy will be enacted due to political feasibility. Similarly QE is only inflationary if it works.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 8:25 am 96
@realpaul: I voted this comment up for three reasons:
It was anecdotal without being disingenuous and preachy
It contained useful information
It contained just the right amount of fecal-related content
The mind boggles when one thinks about how little the average person knows or is aware of what is going on in the world. As the master himself would say, there's going to be a lot of pant-crapping when the feces hits the fan.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 8:46 am 97
@Dave:
Well if that's that's the standard for tough, I don't think people in BC are even finding things challenging – yet. In the 80's we had double digit interest rates right through the decade and double digit unemployment for most of it. That was challenging.
By 1982 the people of this province knew we were in trouble and the government was soon to acknowledge it. People in BC today think we've already gotten over the recession when we've just borrowed time with interest. And Gordo at least talks as though he thinks the same.
By 2012, I think we'll be able to call things challenging.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 8:50 am 98
Sad how police let a squabble over who got to be chief and who got a promotion to inspector get in the way of arresting Willy over the strong evidence on file that he was continuing to kill while the cops dithered and fretted over bringing two outsiders in to the force. How many women could have been saved if not for the childish antics of the 'drop out squad'.
So now the Chief is an insider making 300 grand and the inspector ladder is stacked with insiders and all is well because they say they're sorry????? These assholes are a joke and the inquiry is needed to clear the air.
The reason that real expertise was brought in was that the local boobs had proven themselves incompetant…..just goes to show why unions are not conducive to good public policy decisions…don't think so?????? ask the families of the murdered women who died while the petulant policemen were fighting over who got what job and they used the murders as leverage.
It turns out the real expert 'Rosmo'was right all along and the cops wouldn't listen or investigate because he was 'an outsider'. The assholes who took the promotions should ask themselves how they can live with themselves ( you know who you are) ….but psycho's don't care about those issues…they only think of themselves.
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Calls+grow+Pickt…
BTW I think the bedbug forum has pushed someones buttons…..the Big Slut on 98 is doing a spread on the Vanc issue. Maybe the Big Slut and the Christie Cheerleader read VCI?????? Otherwise its quite a coincidence….no?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 8:56 am 99
@buff_butler: QE can come in many forms – it is a form of monetary policy used to increase the money supply when rates are already zero.
The current round of QE was "about targeting segments of the yield curve and making longer term dept cheaper for the borrower. Through arbitrage it drops the yield of all other debt denoted in that currency."
If the federal government writes cheques to debtors financed by Treasuries which are bought by the Federal Reserve by crediting its own account with money is QE….
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 9:03 am 100
@space889:
Not quite. He still would have to pay realtor fees of 5% out of the final sales price, close out a mortgage, and service the debt in the mean time, pay property taxes, not to mention inflation. Even if he breaks even on the price, he is still losing money.
Remember, this is supposed to be an income producing asset. Today, it is producing negative cash flow. To only get back your equity and principle after sinking in the carrying costs is not a good investment. It's like paying someone a fee to give you back the money you lent them. Take the loss now, remove the risk, and do something useful with the money.
Finally, on what basis does he believe he will get $600k in 10 years? In 10 years, his condo will be old and busted. If he's saying HIS property will sell for $600k in 10 years, what he is really saying is that units comparable to what he has today, ie, brand new, will cost even more than $600k, ie, the market has not only recovered from the biggest price run up in history, but will exceed today's peak.
That is merely wishful thinking. A more analytical approach would consider today's deflationary environment, where debt is destroyed and credit tightens. This is not an inflationary environment condusive to real estate appreciation.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 9:04 am 101
New Listings 252
Price Changes 115
Sold Listings 128
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 9:11 am 102
Pimps fight back with bogus claims and 'lower rates'.
Sales off 45% in Vancouver in July they admit but don't tell you that this is another bogus 'fluff stat' because the drop is 70++ % in West Van etc etc….
As I noticed today, there has to be a 5 year inventory of listings in Kits alone.
meanwhile the banks come in an 'lower rates'…. .01% of the 5 year fixed. bwahahhahahahahahahah !!!!!!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 9:12 am 103
@realpaul: NOKIA NSeries, it makes the Black berry and IPhone look like childrens rattles by comparison of tech tricks, speed and scope.
Dude? Seriously? Which planet are you from, again?
How about the rest of the claims?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 9:13 am 104
@realpaul#94.
LOL, that was hilarious.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 9:23 am 105
@patriotz:
What you say about inventory??
It is dropping free fall.
Chances are soon there is no apartment to buy downtown like in between 2004-2007
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 9:38 am 106
@Alum:
why don't you tell us about sales and prices while you're at it?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 9:39 am 107
@paulb.: Looks like listings are starting to escalate again…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 10:06 am 108
At least CBC is brutally honest about the housing market stats: "People don't seem to be in a buying mood….sales volumes last month are the worst in ten years" oh and apparently, "Asian investors are now holding onto their money, rather than buying real estate" WTF? Just two months ago it was all about Hot Asian Money!!!
Ho ya baby, bring it on! Bring it on!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 10:11 am 109
patriotz says: You have to understand that governments cannot enact crazy fiscal policies without consequences. The inflation and deficits of the late 60’s and 70’s resulted in high interest rates that persisted until the late 90’s
you may have to consider new assumptions. prevailing thought out there is that the next round of quantitative easing will bring lower real interest rates. mike is correct, that is what government is going to be looking for. u.s. and canadian bond markets do not operate with the same parameters as greece. researching and understanding these macroeconomic issues is essential.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 10:25 am 110
#88 – oneangryslav2:
Here is Bernanke's 2002 paper wherein he mentioned a "helicopter drop" to battle deflation. It's an interesting read and gives insight into his thinking regarding the ZIRP boundary and the Fed's various tools to fight deflation in the USA.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 11:02 am 111
@realpaul: #94
Brilliant realpaul, I was howling reading your anecdote.
You're absolutely right, the latte sippers of Kits have no idea what's going on in the world. They probably have no idea what's going on beyond Granville street.
No good Chinese food there? What a surprise, those people are whiter than rice. If they were any whiter they'd have dwarfs dancing around them. They make Mr. Rogers look ethnic. Ever wonder why there are so few drinking establishments there that have dancing? That's why.
Men in Capris? If they ever made a movie about Kits life, that's what it should be called.
And I concur with slav, the amount of fecal matter in your post was like a perfectly seasoned dish. Mmmm…
My compliments to the chef.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 11:04 am 112
@Anonymous:
#111 was moi.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 11:07 am 113
@The Pope: Cheers, Pope. The housing bust we're witnessing is in part a tribute to this blog.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 11:07 am 114
Kablooma: everyone in economics knows the helicoptor analogy is an old Milton Friedman one. It is a totally benign example used to illustrate the dangers of excess money.
Bernanke did indeed mention it in that speech, but why goldbugs pin it on Bernanke as a sign of his evilness is way beyond me.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 11:17 am 115
Just for public record – the housing bust in Vancouver is happening before the inevitable stock market plunge that is being signalled by the ECRI WLI Growth Index, Baltic Dry Index, Consumer Metrics Institute Growth Index, ISM PMI Manufacturing Index, US Case-Shiller Housing Index, Per Capita Auto Sales, S&P Volatility Index (VIX), Unemployment Rate, Option Arm & Alt-A Mortgage Reset Schedule, Depletion of fiscal policy ammo, and on and on…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 11:50 am 116
@Kid Fynnland: Thanks for the link kabloona.
I absolutely agree with Kid Fynnland: it seems the goldbugs doth protest too much. It's ironic, and revealing of the lack of seriousness with which goldbugs have analyzed Bernanke's comments (and by the way, it wasn't a "paper" but prepared remarks), that the "helicopter" remark was both i) a reference to Friedman, and ii) in the section of his speech titled "Fiscal policy". Since when is using the printing press considered a fiscal policy?
Here's the quote, for those of you who haven't read Bernanke's remarks:
Nowhere in this quote does Bernanke talk about printing money. He claims that combining a tax cut with open market purchases by the Fed (and, thereby, artificially supressing interest rates) would combine to produce an outcome "equivalent" to Friedman's 'helicopter-drop' example.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:10 pm 117
"Just for public record – the housing bust in Vancouver is happening…"
Just after the mega-dance marathon in Pyongyang?
"The East is Red" and all that.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:15 pm 118
One thing that makes me cautious is the memory of 2008. We all rejoyced at the starting crash only to see it reversed a few months later. There is no indication that what we are seeing now is not just a temporary thing. I've been burned before so I don't want to dance my happy dance yet.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:18 pm 119
August 4th, 2010 at 5:39 pm
@paulb.: Looks like listings are starting to escalate again…
I would agree. I am getting a LOT of new daily listings for the Tri-Cities area in my VOW auto-updates.
I sure as hell wouldn't want to be in a "MUST sell" position right now.
Some of the listings I receive feature EMPTY houses…probably instances where the owner has already purchased and is trying to unload.
Ugh.(for them, that is)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:28 pm 120
B.C. Lower Mainland real estate sales plummet in July
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Lower+Mainla…
VANCOUVER — Lower Mainland real estate markets saw their slowest or near slowest July in a decade, the region's real estate boards reported Wednesday, with sales down by almost half from July 2009's red-hot markets and prices slipping from the previous month's levels.
In Metro Vancouver, excluding Surrey, realtors saw 2,255 sales registered through the Multiple Listing Service, a 45-per-cent decline from July 2009, the third slowest July in the last 10 years.
In the Fraser Valley, July MLS sales were off 47 per cent with 1,101 transactions, the slowest in a decade..
The benchmark price for detached homes in , an average for typical homes sold, dipped a negligible 0.2 per cent to $793,193 in the area of Metro Vancouver covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
Fraser Valley Real Estate Board realtors saw its detached-home benchmark hit $510,470 in July, down 1.5 per cent from June, and the board reported that its benchmarks in all three categories fell from the previous month for the first time since January 2009.
“With the pace of home sales and listings easing off in our market, we've begun to see a leveling of home prices from the record highs seen in the spring, creating greater affordability,” Jake Moldowan, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said in a news release.
The board added that since the spring, home prices have come down 2.8 per cent from record highs reached in April.
Deanna Horn, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board said that while real estate sales typically slow in the summer, “we didn't anticipate this level of change.”
Both boards noticed that new listings of homes for sale are also waning.
In Metro Vancouver, new listings were off almost 18 per cent from a year ago. In the Fraser Valley, new listings were down 27 per cent.
Both markets, however, still have higher levels of total inventory. In Metro Vancouver, the inventory of 16,431 homes is 33 per cent higher than July 2009. In the Fraser Valley, the inventory of 10,852 listings is 14 per cent more than in the same month a year ago.
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Lower+Mainla…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:40 pm 121
@Joeblow
I hear you with the concern BUT…
there is no room to adjust the interest rates downward this time. Kicking it back from .75 will have negligible effect and I think we've seen that last of that. This amp don't go up to 11 no more.
This does not preclude other measures but, as has been discussed here before, it is much more difficult for fed gov't meddling in the fall (autumn) of 2010 because of this and to me, it makes all the difference in the world.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:55 pm 122
@specuskeptic:
You are right that the rates can't be manipulated again, but they can go back to 0% down, 40 year amt, etc. There are still tricks in the hat.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 12:59 pm 123
Enjoyable excerpt from Garth's blog tonight:
"Cameron Muir, chief comedian for the BC Real Estate Association said, “we have seen consumer demand come off,” and blamed higher mortgage rates, tighter borrowing rules for first-time buyers and “fragile” consumer confidence brought about by the HST.
He did not mention the fact houses cost $615,000 in a town where the average household income is $76,650.
Mr. Muir finished his routine by forecasting that BC housing prices will increase this year by 6%."
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:12 pm 124
I'd be VERY surprised to see the 0-40 again. Even if we did, that would simply mean a delay of the inevitable. As others were discussing previously, the cost of sustaining this rube-goldberg bubble gets exponentially expensive – both in budgetary terms and politically.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:13 pm 125
The Baltic Dry Index is up, Dude.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:16 pm 126
@Joeblow:
They can throw a nuclear bomb too, no?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:29 pm 127
Update on the $388K house in Collingwood with the right of way.
It sold for $420K.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:33 pm 128
#103 A
I am neither living in 'cartoon land' of advertising nor am I a malcontent who has given up my brain to the advertisers in trade for a few minutes peace from the worms crawling around in my skull as you seem to be suffering from. Are they telling you to hate realpaul no matter what the topic????????
Heres a general question…"When psycho's start hearing voices…from dogs and such ( like Berkowitz for ex)…why do the voices always command the nutbag to kill? Why don't the voices ever direct the nutjobs to go have a picnic or bake a cake? Why is it always hatred and deadly venom….like this 'Anonoymous' character. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, I straightened him out on the BCTF issue and now he's a tight little sphincter of hate….so sad. Woof.
I currently have an E71 and a N97, I have owned a CrackBerry and reviewed the IPhone before it was made public. I bought one of the very first NEC phones back when they first came out, it was the size of a brick and cost $3800 bucks. It wouldn't work in over half the city but really pulled intrest from people down on Howe St…. sci fi at the time. My partner trumped me and bought the first flip phone Motorola and paid $5800 for it. That was in the early eighties or so….both useless museum pieces now. I will also admit to having bought the first Commodore 64 in Vancouver…….thats right….64K …a really powerful supercomputer in the day. Junk…but it did have PONG !!!!!!
For depth of engineering, function and features I will stand on the position that the North American products don't hold a candle to the Nokia. Of course, Nokia isn't given away free with a three year contract, thats probably why you haven't aquainted yourself with one.
Feel free to hate me….but what did the Finns ever do to you?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:46 pm 129
@Best place on meth: Dude! 420!
Is that a subtle grow-op indicator?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 1:51 pm 130
@Newcomer:
Really?
04 August 2010
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -7 1957
That's one awful looking chart:
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:00 pm 131
@Anonymous:
That's just down on the day. Look at this one:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:I…
Now set the time frame to 5 years. You will see it is pretty unremarkable and on an upswing.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:05 pm 132
I do believe nokia still sells more phone than any other handset mfgr (a proud e71 user myself). I just got saddled with a blackberry by work and can't stand the damn thing.
POLL: An estate sale of a detached just off Arbutus, close to Stong's. Old place that has been inhabited by 96 year old lady until just recently. they tell me its a tear down (I think that's used a little frivolously in this city); I've never seen the inside, but it looks ok from the outside.
33' frontage. I expect that they'll push the sale.
What will they get? closest to the actual selling value get's nothing whatsoever. Any guesses?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:06 pm 133
@patriotz:
I agree. These aren't tough times. I still have to wait in line to spend $5 for a coffee.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 4th, 2010 at 2:06 pm 134
@realpaul:
realpaul, thats wonderful that you bought all that crap over the years.. I really liked how you compare C64 with nokia phones…
NSeries = N97 is the top model , approx 2, 3 years old software. Not so much of a competitor actually.. E71 is NOT NSeries dude.
I have blackberry, and I really dislike it. Not so much fun of iPhone, but I am getting really excited with android platform. In spite all this, I don't think that the cell phone would make me superior to anyone out there.
p.s there where earlier computers then commodore C64 dude. and I have owned some of those.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
August 15th, 2010 at 11:55 pm 135
My good friend who is an accountant has a condo in the states but it has two full baths. How can it only have a "half bath"? Just a toilet and a sink? Shower in the pool? – Oh, and Nokia is still the biggest manufacturer by a fair margin. We'll see how long that lasts but it wouldn't surprise me if it do for a long time.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0