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September 2nd, 2010 at 7:17 pm
@Best place on meth: what a clown. Nice fro too.
September 2nd, 2010 at 7:08 pm
Silly me. It’s 489K.
September 2nd, 2010 at 7:06 pm
This in today…
“Awesome 3 bedroom rancher w/walkout daylight basement in a quiet C-D-S location. Upstairs feats 3 bdrm, incl large master bdrm w/3 pc ensuite, cozy wood fireplace, large deck overlooking fully fenced yard which backs onto Poco trail & mini-greenbelt. Downstairs you will love the self-contained 1 bedroom basement suite, w/separate entry, shared laundry & lots of recent upgrades. Also included in the asking price is a $20,000 decorating allowance to cover cost of some needed upgrades, contact your realtor for more info.”
Hmm…a suite in the basement AND 20K kicked in for paint and what-not.
This would have had an initial list price FAR HIGHER a few short months ago.
SSB? Comments?
September 2nd, 2010 at 7:03 pm
Not a bad start.
14 new listings today alone from my VOW auto-update.
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:54 pm
“Naturally, nobody at Global asked him why neither of these events happened 4 years ago in the U.S.”
And, naturally, they trotted out that a-hole, Michael Campbell, with pursed lip and furrowed brow, talking to Deb Hope on Global’s early News about what terrific shape this province is in.
HOWEVER, according to some who listened to Bill Good’s show yesterday re: local RE, most call-ins were decidedly downbeat about RE prospects here depite a “talker-upper” guest.
So, I suppose Campbell and his a-hole friends can try all they like, but they’re not going to reverse a trend in motion.
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:27 pm
More discussion on the news tonight about a “possible bubble” and who do they trot out again to correct that silly notion?
That’s right, Dch. Sommerville.
According to him there is no chance of real estate collapsing unless one of these events takes place:
1. A massive rise in interest rates.
2. A collapse of Western economies.
Naturally, nobody at Global asked him why neither of these events happened 4 years ago in the U.S. or 20 years ago in Japan.
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:26 pm
@ts562rs:
Ignore the unfriendly posters here. While I’m not sure about your reasoning regarding San Fran prices and property tax, you provide a fresh perspective.
I have thought about moving to both San Fran and Austin. I decided against the latter because it’s too isolated from my social networks and will put off the former until the state works through their fiscal problems. Though this might never happen.
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:14 pm
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaa…..Little Lord Puff & Stuff wooing the Chinese to build factories in Vancouver…..thats too funny…oh my sides hurt. A competative factory wage in Beijing that builds that crap that we find in a Wallmart is a shade under $300 CDN per month. Oh and might I add…..we ran out of land in Vancouver decades ago according to the most recent expert analysis from our friend Tsur Somerville.
Commom sense talk about why this can never happen in Canada goes something like this:
http://fullcomment.nationalpos.....in-unions/
The truth is the Miss Moonbeam and the Vision Weasels are going on a slop bucket junket. The Chinese secret service will have him measured before he lands and the bum boys will be a knockin’ on the hotel room door for little Lord G-Man Mayor of Never never land. We know who’s going to get greased up on this trip and they ain’t talking factory business here……juicy juicy backtory business more like it eh G-Man.
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:13 pm
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaa…..Little Lord Puff & Stuff wooing the Chinese to build factories in Vancouver…..thats too funny…oh my sides hurt. A competative factory wage in Beijing that builds that crap that we find in a Wallmart is a shade under $300 CDN per month. Oh and might I add…..we ran out of land in Vancouver decades ago according to the most recent expert analysis from our friend Tsur Somerville.
Commom sense talk about why this can never happen in Canada goes something like this:
http://fullcomment.nationalpos.....in-unions/
The truth is the Miss Moonbeam and the Vision Weasels are going on a slo bucket junket. The Chinese secret service will have him measured before he lands and the bum boys will be a knockin’ on the hotel room door for little Lord G-Man Mayor of Never never land. We know who’s going to get greased up on this trip and they ain’t talking factory business here……juicy juicy backtory business more like it eh G-Man.
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:10 pm
Days elapsed so far 2
Days remaining 19
Average Sales this month 100
Average Listings this month 190
Projected Sales 2100
Projected New Listings 3980
Projected sell/list 52.8%
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:00 pm
I like ts562rs’s posts because he’s like a time traveler.
But of course, we can all “time travel” if we want to by visiting some of the US housing bubble blog archives on the net.
Oh, oops, sorry, I forgot we are different here!
September 2nd, 2010 at 5:49 pm
brainsail,
Yes, our income tax is extremely high here. But I guess the point I’m making is that compared to other similarly priced states in that region, TX has really high property taxes. The average income in Austin is also a lot less than that in the Bay Area, thus if you make say- 50k per year and yet live in an Austin house you paid maybe $75,000 for a few years back yet now have to cough up the taxable amount for its current value of $200,000, you see the problem: Your taxes go UP over time versus your income, which as seen nationally has stayed the same for 20 years. Therein lies the problem that you could potentially be priced out of your home if it went up enough in value, which they don’t tend to do there for that exact same reason: There’s only so much people will pay for a house if they know of this property tax. Personally I think it works well to keep prices under control. Even though Austin is a semi-desirable, cool little city, its still well within reason for many people, especially younger folks like me.
That said… we’re moving there exactly because you can in fact get a really nice, decent, and maybe even historically interesting home for $150,000-$200,000. That would get you zilch out where we live now. I can’t wait to get out of here
Boombust, TN schools were ranked around #13 last time I checked. California’s was 47th. CA has way, way way more rich people and a huge economy. They used to have the best schools in the country. Now they have the worst.
As far as an American being on here, well all I can say is that the news stories I see coming out of Canada, the chatter on here between people denying the bubble, and so on all smells like a bubble pop like anyday. Its not a question of WILL it happen. Its GOING to happen. We down here lived through it and are still living through it.
I find it interesting reading this blog because it is just like reading the tons of California bubble blogs “back in the day”. So take it from someone who’s lived through the tell-tale signs. The market in Vancouver is going to pop and condos will tank first- just like those here in San Francisco. In fact, many are still sitting empty. Some never got finished. yet during the boom people were on waiting lists to get in, happy to shell out $800,000 for a tiny 1 bedroom loft. Now they might sell for $350k or less.
September 2nd, 2010 at 5:31 pm
@Vansanity:
Don’t assume.
I respect PaulB for his integrity and honesty. And I’m grateful to xxx and Inventory for their useful stats and info.
September 2nd, 2010 at 5:27 pm
@Anonymous: “They hardly ever print any bad news about Vancouver RE! And even if they did, we would not know it, because papers that actually do count are all in mandarin and cantonese!!!”
You’re the only idiot who reads papers in “cantonese”.
Are you missing this junket that Gregor Robertson plus >50 delegates leave this Saturday for Beijing, Shejiachua, Baoding, Shanghai, Tianjin, Quangzhou and HK. His mission is to woo Chinese investors to set up business and build factories in Metro Vancouver.
2010-09-02
http://news.singtao.ca/vancouv.....04690.html
September 2nd, 2010 at 5:27 pm
Interesting how people on this site are geting suckered into discussing RE and taxes in the US…
Why? Because this newcomer doesn’t know squat about the market here. Therefore, it is INCUMBENT upon us to talk about what he knows, which is US real estate.
This is a Vancouver site, Bub.
If you want to talk about California, etc. go to “The Housing Bubble”.
September 2nd, 2010 at 5:27 pm
New Listings 190
Price Changes 83
Sold Listings 106
September 2nd, 2010 at 5:13 pm
@brainsail:
I was thinking the same thing. California’s state income tax kicks in on income of $7100 and hits 9.55% for income over $46,000. There’s also the wonderfully named Metal Health Services Tax that takes another 1% on income over $1 million.
California also has the highest state sales tax in the US, topping out at 10.75% with local taxes included, while in Texas it tops out at just over 8% with local included.
California’s corporate income tax is over 8% while it is zero in Texas.
And what does all this tax get you? Despite spending half of its budget on education, California’s school test scores are lower than those in Texas.
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:39 pm
@BadNewsBears:
I totally agree. Where’s that “CRASH” that the bears have been chanting for the past 3 years? The prices have recently stalled waiting for the next big load of cash from China to pile right in. September’s going to become rosy as they come over to do some real estate shopping right before their National Day.
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:34 pm
“…and pay less than $1,000 a year in property taxes. In fact, most other Southeastern states have low property taxes.”
I guess that’s why they have such a rotten school system.
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:17 pm
ts562rs
Doesn’t CA have a state income tax of 9 % for incomes over $50K$. If we lived there and had to pay 9% on a $90K income plus property taxes equates to alot more than we have to pay here. I think that because we only pay a total of $8.4K is a bargin. TX is one of 7 states that doesn’t have a state income tax. I hope I am not missing something here.
http://swz.salary.com/salarywi.....te_ca.html
Challenging the county’s appraisal to recent comps is stupid game you have to play here every couple years. I have had ours reduced everytime. Most people do not bother. Google TCAD for Travis Count Appraisal District and you will arrive at a site that you can compare your neighbors’ tax rates.
$200K will buy you alot of house here. We paid $180K (2600SF finished and 800SF unfinished)in 1994 and it’s worth about $400K now. House prices did not bubble here and just followed basic inflation so it is a safe place these days to own a house. Good luck!
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:16 pm
August turned out to be a pretty steady month. I think this bodes well for a stable Fall market.
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:12 pm
Bears depressed today. Crash not happen.
Dumb Bears. At this rate it will take you 20 years to buy house but by then you not get financing for being too old.
Dumb Bears.
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:06 pm
@oneangryslav2:
Very well explained.
Can you teach the REBGV how to compile stats?
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:46 pm
@ts561rs: In Vancouver, property taxes are calculated differently and are a function not of the absolute, but the relative value of one’s property. If property values double, property taxes do not, as a rule, double. I tried to explain this to my brother but he didn’t understand, so I’ll try to set out a hypothetical example here and copy and paste this to him in an e-mail. Oh, and please let me know if I’ve made any mistakes.
Assume that a city has only two residences–Wong and Chan (we are in Vancouver).
Wong’s 1BR shack is valued at 500K.
Chan’s 3BR tear-down is valued at 1500K. (this is Vancouver)
The philosopher-kings at City Hall need $10K to run this hypothetical city. So there is 10K of revenue needed for 2000K of assessed value, meaning that the city will set a levy rate of $5 per 1K of assessed value. Thus, Wong pays $2500 in property taxes that year and Chan pays $7500.
The next year, the real estate bubble continues to inflate and the assessed value of the two homes are:
Wong–$600K
Chan–$1900K
Let’s assume that the city wants to show it is fiscally responsible and decides not to increase spending. Thus, it needs $10K this year to finance its business.
Now, they have to raise $10K in property tax from a total assessed value of 2500K. As a result, they’ll set the new levy rate at $4 per $1000 of assessed property value.
So, the two homeowners pay the following property tax:
Wong: 600*4=$2400
Chan: 1900*4=$7600
Thus, Chan’s tax has gone up and Wong’s has gone down due to the change in the respective values of their properties, even though the assessed value of each property was higher than the year before. Of course, that’s because the city decided to forestall any spending increases. If you look at the city website, you’ll notice that for much of the 2000s, the levy rate did decrease in Vancouver.
For residences a total levy (per $1000 of assessed value):
http://vancouver.ca/fs/budgetS.....s_2010.htm
2000–6.28192
2001–6.40384
2002–6.62104
2003–6.61411
2004–6.33573
2005–5.98922
2006–5.63853
2007–4.98817
2008–4.31141
2009–4.22573
2010–4.21377
Now, what happens if the City of Vancouver bears the brunt (to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars) of the financial fiasco that is the Olympic Village? Well see increases mill rates (and property taxes) even as property values decline. People will wonder why they have to pay more property tax when “my house is worth 15% leas this year than last.”
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:39 pm
come on bears, relax, there are no chemtrails.
Bears always complaining that the media is only pumping RE. Well today’s article in Sun quotes the drop from the peak in Apr 2.8%, not the month to month which is flat. They will print whatever sounds the most exciting either up or down. They want to sell papers bears. Either way, not much to talk about bears, this market is clearly not ‘crashing’. Just because bears want crash doesn’t mean it’s coming.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:11 pm
@ Devore
A lot of sellers are sitting on the fence waiting (or hoping) for another surge in RE. There is no volume because there are no buyers right now. Three of my neighbors simply pulled their listings last month. Although this supply appears to have vanished off the market, I know these people are lurking behind the scenes, bags packed and ready to go with their fingers cocked and ready to hit sell button at the drop of a hat. # listings will start to trend back up once it becomes more apparent that the market has indeed shifted. You’re right, listings won’t just sit there in a “vacuum” and pricing will inevitably succumb to the forces of gravity. Ditto these comments for the equity markets, which are in just as dicey a predicament…everyone that wants out of that crap hasn’t gotten out yet.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:55 pm
brainsail,
Yes- Taxes in Austin are dependent on the district. So I suppose I should have been more specific. That still seems like a high rate. May parents own a pretty decent place in Tennessee and pay less than $1,000 a year in property taxes. In fact, most other Southeastern states have low property taxes. TX is pretty high. Your $400,000 house might as well be a $700,000 place in San Francisco. We plan on moving there and there is no way I plan on buying anything remotely close to that price. $150,000-$200,000 is more like it. I simply can’t imagine being on the hook for $8,000-$10,000 every single year.
But my point was that with such high property taxes, it puts a brake on how high prices will go simply because there is a recognition of that consequence. Many people we talked to in Austin when we visited actually mentioned wanting to have their property values DOWNGRADED for taxes alone.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:48 pm
@bullwhip29:
Is that all you see? Listing don’t exist in a vacuum. If listings start going up, but you don’t see sales going up with them, what do you see happening to ask and bid prices?
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:39 pm
Only the FORECLOSURES on this blog are worth reading !
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:32 pm
I for one don’t ‘hate’ any of the people you mentioned…I do however depise liars, cheats, pimps, double dealers, self serving parasites and several other varieties of varmint. It is obvious that the public has been sold a bill of goods for which there is no historical precedent to the pre planned screwing that many trusting members of the public will pay early for the rest of their lives. The pimps chose exactly thae wrong course for the economy by choosing to pump real estate like there was no tomorrow…we all agree now that the economy is in far worse shape had they chosen to do anything else other than what they’ve done. In the course of this government induced fiasco we had the parasites pile in ( banks, agents, brokers etc) and disregard any moral or ethical standing in the pursuit of unmitigated greed. If the public is reacting with ‘hatred’ it is well deserved.
Even the freaking Rusky’s are up on the game….don’t expect any ‘rich dumb foriegners’ to flock in and save the day. The turkey can’t fly….and all the lies and flowery prognostications in the world from the cast of fucking pimps (well known locally and nationally after banding together on a week long circle jerk in the media) cab save Canada from whats coming.
http://english.pravda.ru/busin.....s_sales-0/
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:32 pm
“I know everyone here hates realtors, mortgage brokers, banks, politicians, developers, contractors, anyone associated with real estate sales, development or marketing BUT I’m here to just say they’re salesmen.”
Realtors aren’t hated, liars are.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:30 pm
@Pete:
They hardly ever print any bad news about Vancouver RE! And even if they did, we would not know it, because papers that actually do count are all in mandarin and cantonese!!!
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Here’s a realtor pretty much lying regarding the townhouse at 1439 Howe Street:
I replied to the craigslist rental ad and asked if they had any plans to sell the unit as I am looking for stability. Here it the response:
“Hi XXXX,
We want to rent the townhouse on a 1 year lease. However, we are planning to sell it longer term.
Are you interested in renting or purchasing?
Regards,
Pauline & Doug Jones
604-228-XXXX”
I added the “XXXX” for privacy. I expect amateur landlords to bend the truth but when a Realtor tells you they are planning on selling it longer term after they have had it on and off the market 2 years with it currently ON THE MARKET, and listed in her name, well, pretty unscrupulous….I wonder if the real estate board would be interested? I know I wouldn’t trust her to sell my dogs house!!!
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:27 pm
Aside from the median price/cut&paste error (anyone know if this was corrected?), there appear to be other issues with how some of the data has been reported and/or presented. No wonder everyone finds this confusing.
* CBC and Vanc Sun unnecessarily(?) emphasize drops of 2.8% and “almost” 3% respectively from the April high, however, the month over month drop is less than 1/10th of 1%. Aug was a repeat of July and therefore not newsworthy. Folks, you did not get a better deal in Aug than you would have gotten in July.
* the MLS Housing Price Index chart/data and the REBGV Ave Price graph do not seem to tell the same story. The latter seems to indicate detached home prices have almost rebounded to April highs while MLS HPI data says prices are down 2.8% from high (and up slightly from July), which is consistent with everything else I’ve read.
What’s known is that sales have been declining for 4 consecutive months while prices have dipped only slightly. Unless “something” gives (ie. we start to see significant price drops or some new, idiotic home buyer stimulus is rolled out), the only thing I see changing is the # of listings, which should start to trend back up.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:26 pm
@Vansanity: I completely agree. What are salespeople supposed to do if not sell stuff?
I blame the sucker buyers who believe the get rich quick dreams for getting into financial trouble. It’s their own fault, no sympathy from me.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:23 pm
@Meat Robot: It’s the word ‘roll’ with a : symbol at start and end:
The chemtrail conspiracy must be pretty busy- the papers tend to only print bad news since that’s what sells.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:20 pm
I know everyone here hates realtors, mortgage brokers, banks, politicians, developers, contractors, anyone associated with real estate sales, development or marketing BUT I’m here to just say they’re salesmen. Plain and simple, if you’ve ever worked in sales you know that its your job to put that rosey spin on everything, within reason of course, you stretch the truth, use stats in your favor and away you go. Don’t blame them for being good at sales, blame the people that fall for their bullshit. If someone takes a salesmen’s word on something than it serves them right when things go wrong. It’s called due dilligence and its something no one seems to practice anymore, at least not when it comes to buying real estate… tv’s on the other hand, hell ya, they do all their research but real estate… naahhh… what’s the point, it’ll never go down.
Don’t hate me.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:18 pm
@crashcow: Are you sure that’s correct? West van apartment benchmark price is down almost $120k in four months?!?
How can that be?
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:17 pm
@specialfx3000:
Yeah well, if they put as much effort into checking their stats as they do figuring out what kind of spin to put on the release they might not look like such a bunch of amateurs.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:51 pm
All the talk about what “type” of listings and how they’re real or not looks for naught. Prices are the same as 6 months ago and the MOI is still highly negatively correlated.
3 month moving average of MOI has passed 6, which means price drops are probable in the fall. All this with historically low rates.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:50 pm
ts562rs
I trust you read my late post (#148) on yesterday’s topic concerning property taxes in Austin TX.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:50 pm
@Best place on meth:
The monkeys are incapable of multi-tasking. They are currently too busy bashing Bears on internet forums like VCI.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:45 pm
The idiots at the real estate board still haven’t fixed their numbers.
It must be like a thousand monkeys at a thousand typewriters over there.
These are the “professionals” that we can’t live without?
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:35 pm
CBC’s also carrying the 3% down since April story…
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....rices.html
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:34 pm
** Fixed a calc error. Please ignore my last post **
Here is a summary of the total dollar and percent benchmark price changes from the April peak to August:
Greater Vancouver Overall: ($16,822), -3%
Detached
Greater Vancouver: ($23,327), -3%
Burnaby: $18,911, 2%
Coquitlam: ($47,742), -7%
Maple Ridge: ($24,453), -5%
New Westminster: ($23,720), -4%
North Vancouver: ($58,907), -6%
Pitt Meadows: $21,900, 4%
Port Coquitlam: ($41,726), -7%
Port Moody: $18,380, 2%
Richmond: ($15,633), -2%
South Delta: $9,650, 1%
Vancouver East: ($18,031), -2%
Vancouver West: ($34,089), -2%
West Vancouver: ($10,365), -1%
Attached
Greater Vancouver: ($12,888), -3%
Burnaby: ($4,987), -1%
Coquitlam: ($13,843), -3%
Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows: ($16,232), -5%
North Vancouver: ($38,698), -6%
Port Coquitlam: ($118), 0%
Port Moody: ($18,921), -5%
Richmond: ($2,343), 0%
South Delta: ($14,337), -3%
Vancouver East: ($10,389), -2%
Vancouver West: ($26,917), -3%
Apartment
Greater Vancouver: ($11,811), -3%
Burnaby: ($3,802), -1%
Coquitlam: ($6,510), -2%
Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows: ($9,368), -4%
New Westminster: ($3,264), -1%
North Vancouver: ($8,123), -2%
Port Coquitlam: ($2,331), -1%
Port Moody: ($12,688), -4%
Richmond: ($535), 0%
South Delta: ($8,469), -2%
Vancouver East: ($13,569), -4%
Vancouver West: ($20,882), -4%
West Vancouver: ($117,571), -16%
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:21 pm
@realpaul:
I wonder if realtors have an excuse calendar?
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:20 pm
August stats are out! Here is a summary of the total dollar and percent benchmark price changes since the April peak:
Greater Vancouver Overall: ($16,345), -3%
Detached
Greater Vancouver: ($25,210), -3%
Burnaby: ($12,349), 2%
Coquitlam: ($35,903), -7%
Maple Ridge: ($16,265), -5%
New Westminster: $15,787, -4%
North Vancouver: ($25,144), -6%
Pitt Meadows: ($35,701), 4%
Port Coquitlam: ($41,644), -7%
Port Moody: ($22,623), 2%
Richmond: ($30,681), -2%
South Delta: ($33,313), 1%
Vancouver East: ($24,106), -2%
Vancouver West: ($65,455), -2%
West Vancouver: ($47,714), -1%
Attached
Greater Vancouver: ($11,404), -3%
Burnaby: $1,600, -1%
Coquitlam: ($20,671), -3%
Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows: ($5,622), -5%
North Vancouver: ($24,280), -6%
Port Coquitlam: ($840), 0%
Port Moody: ($23,999), -5%
Richmond: $2,606, 0%
South Delta: ($2,982), -3%
Vancouver East: ($44,540), -2%
Vancouver West: ($32,473), -3%
Apartment
Greater Vancouver: ($9,900), -3%
Burnaby: ($5,891), -1%
Coquitlam: $1,374 -2%
Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows: ($4,851), -4%
New Westminster: ($9,850), -1%
North Vancouver: ($7,810), -2%
Port Coquitlam: ($2,088), -1%
Port Moody: ($1,096), -4%
Richmond: $513, 0%
South Delta: ($7,476), -2%
Vancouver East: ($15,962), -4%
Vancouver West: ($15,766), -4%
West Vancouver: ($86,844), -16%
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:12 pm
Antidepressant chem trails? Where? I need to find one and breathe in deeply!
Where’s the eye roll button on this thing?
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:00 pm
@ giggling “Bet you a dollar most sellers are in the wait-and-see mode…”
That’s basically what I said. I’ll bet you two dollars most buyers are in wait-and-see mode…
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:56 pm
Hey Bears, don’t get too excited by faulty stats. Someone at GVREB is already mentally on vacation. Median prices are identical for July 2010 and Aug 2010 in all cases. Ctrl+C and Ctrl+V error.
Besides look like ‘crash’ has stalled. Prices very flat over summer, maybe bitter bear not take vacation because can’t get shifts covered at McDonald’s but most people not thinking about buying/selling in Summer. Let’s see what Fall brings.