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Friday Free-for-all!

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248 Comments

It’s the end of the week and that means its time for our regular news round-up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Sugar Living, brand new condo already leaking (video)
–Rough patch ahead for housing market
–YLTNBoomerang on Olympic Village strata fees
–Strataman on Leed certification
–BC home starts rise
–Rising debts cancel low-rate savings
–RBC lets you lock in 25 year mortgage at 8.25%
–Phoenix: BMW or a House?

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend.

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VRENGD

@SuperSmartBull:

Look at post 113 on this thread. Real sale price data from 2001. We all know what those houses would list for today. It is even more extreme than the example I gave from close friends that have sold at 300% gains in 5-6 years.

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SuperSmartBull

@VRENGD:

SSB, you saw the data posted over the weekend that prove that Vancouver RE prices have risen by 400% in nine years.

Where do you get 400% from, other than anecdotal? None of the stats show this, Teranet home price index or REBGV benchmark or even average prices.

Shiller was wright when he called Vancouver the bubbliest city in the world.

That quote was 5 years ago.

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Anonymous

@SuperSmartBull: "price crashes although satisfying impatient bears are not good for anyone."

…except for impatient bears. Give your head a shake mate.

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VRENGD

@SuperSmartBull:

Price crashes are good for 100% of those who buy post crash.

If that is more than the people that bought at bubble prices, a crash is a net benefit to the population.

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VRENGD

@SuperSmartBull:

SSB, you saw the data posted over the weekend that prove that Vancouver RE prices have risen by 400% in nine years. Can you find a bigger bubble than that anywhere in the world?

Shiller was wright when he called Vancouver the bubbliest city in the world.

All bubbles burst.

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SuperSmartBull

@patriotz:

WHY would they be suffering? They would still have the same house and would be making the same payments, right?

Right, because places where the market crashed like US, Ireland, Spain, etc. the economic damage was limited to those who were speculating on overpriced condos? Tell that to the millions who are out of work amid economies that are gutted.

If people would suffer financial distress if they couldn’t sell their house or condo for what they paid for it they shouldn’t be buying in the first place.

So people should anticipate a 70% drop when buying a home? By that standard, no one should have bought in the past 20 years for fear of being underwater when they sell. The reality is price crashes although satisfying impatient bears are not good for anyone.

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SuperSmartBull

@fixie guy:

“Like I said, I challenge anyone to make a RATIONAL argument why the market will fall by 70%”

Historical levels pre-government stimulation? Rents? Wages? The rest of the world? These forums are full of rational reasoning, perhaps incorrect but certainly based in reason. You swing into town like judge and jury without bothering to address the thousands of pages already written, demanding and explanation? Fuck yourself and go back to RET, industry clown. If you spent less time on forums and more out there moving product you’ld be rich, good market or bad.

Well, it should be an easy question to answer for a bear, but instead you just spout out a bunch of gibberish and hate. Not a good way to convince people.

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fixie guy

Attack of the RET morons: "Anonymous Says: You sound like a real doomsday theorist and by the number of posts you make with anti RE rhetoric you seem to have vested interest in the collapse of the market." Question begging, ludicrous accusations (patriotz owns Holiday Inn?), the arrogant 'public voice or common sense' language: the stench is unmistakable. These jackasses chased any adult discussion out of RET but you can exercise the down arrow here. "Like I said, I challenge anyone to make a RATIONAL argument why the market will fall by 70%" Historical levels pre-government stimulation? Rents? Wages? The rest of the world? These forums are full of rational reasoning, perhaps incorrect but certainly based in reason. You swing into town like judge and jury without bothering to address the thousands of pages already written, demanding and explanation? Fuck… Read more »

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Anonymous

I used to love to follow this forum as there were good discussions and information presented, now all the seeming regulars purport doomsday drivel and rejecting anyone's opinion which seems to contravene your absurd and YET unsupported theories. I'm not trying to be a d&$k but do you guys REALLY believe in your own positions?

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metalhead

Anon. here travels all over Canada and doesn't see a problem.

Bwahahaaaaa, I travel all over Europe and the U.S. and I see a big problem for Van/Lower Mainland.

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Anonymous

: 235

You sound like a real doomsday theorist and by the number of posts you make with anti RE rhetoric you seem to have vested interest in the collapse of the market.

Got bad news for you pal! It is not going to happen to the levels you think. This forum is full of fan boy material criticizing the OV and some way overpriced DT condos, but the reality of Vancouver/Lower Mainland is the burbs since that's where 95% of the people live now and will live in the future and prices are not all that bad! I agree we are overvalued but I travel all over Canada for work and always check out the local real estate. Considering livability areas such as Langley/Surrey/Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows/Cloverdale are not at all overvalued vs other much less desirable Western Canadian cities.

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House

@patriotz: And people are perplexed why the BoC is raising rates. How else do they curtail rising debt levels?

Carney's no idiot. He reads the same articles we do.

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patriotz

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…

The rebound in the housing market has been key to Canada's recovery from the recession. But it has left some facing a toxic combination of hefty debts and rising interest rates as the Bank of Canada pulls back from the emergency low rates used to juice the economy back to life.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warned in an annual review of the Canadian economy that record high debt levels have left many vulnerable “to any future adverse shocks.”

In the report being released today, the OECD said more measures could be taken by the federal government to keep marginal buyers out, suggesting an “overpriced” housing market needs to cool off before allowing more people to plunge in.

We have a world-class RE bubble!

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patriotz

@Anonymous: "Like I said, I challenge anyone to make a RATIONAL argument why the market will fall by 70%." I am not bullish on real estate and have even recently sold my place, however making such absurd claims and probably worst of all wishing for them to occur is so short sighted, childish and irresponsible it kinda’ sickens me. At such levels most people I know would be suffering and I am sure most people everyone on this forum knows would be in dire straits so why hope for it? WHY would they be suffering? They would still have the same house and would be making the same payments, right? I'm not suffering because I can't sell my car or computer for half of what they paid for them. If people would suffer financial distress if they couldn't sell their… Read more »

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patriotz

@fixie guy:

Using million dollar condos for affordable housing on the taxpayer’s dime while a generation is shut out of the market is more ‘actionable’ than ‘brilliant’. If I agree the city might try, it’s only out the belief they’re cynical enough to leverage the disadvantaged in a ploy to pull their own asses out of the fire.

The social housing component is part of the plan for the OV implemented by Sullivan's NPA council. They are the people to blame for it. It's embedded in the zoning and cannot be changed without major legal problems. It appears that the current council is trying to minimize the losses to CoV taxpayers on this component. What would you have them do?

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VHB

Why the OV social housing is still empty–the city is making ridiculous demands on the potential social housing operators. link. They have to make these demands or the city's loss gets bigger. And that can't happen, politically, so they're trying to find some sucker social agency to take the hit. I hope our social agencies are smarter than that. "“The societies aren’t getting anything out of this. The city needs to think through this a bit more because these wouldn’t be reasonable terms ordinarily,” said Bob Nicklin, the executive director of Affordable Housing Societies. Barbara Bacon, the long-time director at the Housing Foundation of B.C., also expressed concern. “If you make money, you have to give it up to the city. If you lose money, you’re on the hook for it.” She is also perplexed by an arrangement that provides… Read more »

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eric jackson

Doesn't the 8.25% interest rate for a 25 year-fixed mortgage just fly in the face that Canadian home buying is a good investment? Doesn't this indicate that over the long term, Canadian homeowners have a higher risk of default over a US homeowner, since the interest rate is over double the American rate? Right now, you can get a 30-year fixed rate mortgage for 4% in the US.

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Newcomer

"At current rates and those prices ALL of Canada would move here."

And what would they do when they got here. Even Vancouver doesn't need that many barristas.

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Anonymous

@logic

Like I said, I challenge anyone to make a RATIONAL argument why the market will fall by 70%.

I am not bullish on real estate and have even recently sold my place, however making such absurd claims and probably worst of all wishing for them to occur is so short sighted, childish and irresponsible it kinda' sickens me.

At such levels most people I know would be suffering and I am sure most people everyone on this forum knows would be in dire straits so why hope for it? The only reason would be to benefit at the mercy of others which would put you in the same category of speculators most of you on here hate.

Think bout' it! Its "logic"

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logic

"I know you might disagree and try to make bearish rational arguments against me."

{fixed that for you}

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Anonymous

Gents, sorry to be ignorant here but if you actually believe that there will be a 70% price adjustment in the lower mainland you are smokin' the good stuff. As much as some of the bears on here would love to see this happen to satisfy their ego's, rationally this is an impossibility unless interest rates sky rocket. At current rates and those prices ALL of Canada would move here.

I know you might disagree and try to make bearish irrational arguments against me, but you are WRONG and you just know it. 15-20% correction max….and only in some markets.

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Anonymous

"When did the board decide to allow children to sell real estate?"

right about when they realized they needed a distraction so parents wouldn't realize they would have to sell their children to buy real estate.

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Devore

@doug r: It's purportedly cost some $800k for each one of those suites, how is that exactly "affordable" housing? They could have taken that money, and built 1000s of real affordable housing instead, or any number of other projects.

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Prices

@VRENGD: You're welcome. These are the sorts of numbers Vancouver folks need to see again and again because I think many have no clue what prices looked like 10 short years ago (when the city had a better economy, the same mountains and beaches, and, yes, even immigrants). I blame the stranglehold that the real estate industry now has on the media and also on municipal and provincial politicians, because of the demise of most other industries in BC (forestry, anyone?) and the revenue/donations that came with them.

If you really want to see who the politicians are beholden to, this link is revealing – http://www.citycaucus.com/2010/07/visions-big-deb…

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fixie guy

@ doug "Social housing-well, mixed affordable housing would be a brilliant use of the OV."

Using million dollar condos for affordable housing on the taxpayer's dime while a generation is shut out of the market is more 'actionable' than 'brilliant'. Actionable in the tar and feathers sense. If I agree the city might try, it's only out the belief they're cynical enough to leverage the disadvantaged in a ploy to pull their own asses out of the fire.

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