They’re making more land.

..or at least one crazy guy off the coast of Cancun is:

Richart Sowa lives on an island THAT HE MADE. From plastic bottles.

144 Responses to “They’re making more land.”

- ♦ ↓ ↓ ↓ Click here to leap to comment form ↓ ↓ ↓ ♦ -

    now all the binners in Vancouver can become
    real estate moguls
    it's all good!!

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    That's kid stuff, ever heard if battery park city in New York? 92 acres of prime waterfront real estate in manhattan built from the earth dug up to make the world trade center towers. If Vancouver real estate bulls weren't up to their eye balls in debt they could afford to visit a true world class city like manhattan and they'd know that it is possible to make more land.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_Park_City

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    Tokyo reclaimed a huge tract in its harbour. Vancouver doesn't need new land because the region is full of undeveloped land. Only a matter of time before its zoning changes.

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    Patiently Waiting Says:
    4

    LOL the BEST PLACE ON EARTH is not even in this study. I wonder where it would rank if it was.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Toronto+Mont

    http://www.ubs.com/1/e/media_overview/media_emea/

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    You can make more land, but it is far from being cheap. All the easy filling was done over a century ago. We are already built out, so it just isn't going to happen.

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    The made all the land that is now the coal harbour neighbourhood. Much to the disgust of all the people in buildings who thought that they had a waterfront view forever.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anyway, more land or not, Vancouver RE prices are going down. Even the MSM is preducting a further 8% drop.

    Have you noticed that the "official" predictions from the banks that are reported in the MSM have increased their price drops forecasts? Just a couple of months ago, the prediction was for something like a 1.5% drop.

    Where have I seen this before? Oh, yes: the USA in 2007.

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    Front Street, Toronto:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_Street_(Toront

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    specialfx3000 Says:
    9

    @Patiently Waiting:

    I think it speaks volume that Vancouver did not make the UBS list.

    More proof that our housing prices are way out of whack when we don't have the rental yield and household income to support the madness.

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    A little off topic, but can those who know recommend a decent discount brokerage for buying and selling NA securities?

    I'm a TD customer, so I'm considering Waterhouse, but I'm guessing there are cheaper options out there.

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    10 Reasons To Buy a Home

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-reasons-to-bu

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    12

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/fp/Home+sale

    Look bears, even the hardcore bulls CREA are admitting a softer market through the fall and into next year. Those shameless pumpers.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    13

    @Dave: But we don't even have to resort to making more land, I am always amazed at how much undeveloped land there is in Van, especially for a city that has supposedly 'run out'. Head to SE Van around Boundary and Marine and along Marine though Burnaby and you can see vast tracts of empty land. In the past year I've seen one new Townhouse development MacGregor start to pop up and I hear there are plans for Van waterfront east of Kent where the Olympic busses were parked. Rest is still green field.

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    specialfx3000 Says:
    14

    @Alum:

    Hmm, #1 explains getting a bargain because we're four to five years into the biggest housing bust in modern history. #2 shows that you can get a 30-year loan for around 4.3%. #3 mentions that you can deduct the mortgage interest. I'll stop describing the rest of the top 10 reasons.

    Alum, you just explained that now is not the right time to buy a home in Vancouver.

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    @SuperSmartBull: That Marine Drive area is nice except when the wind blows north, then it smells of cow manure from the Richmond farms. There's a reason it is the last area in Vancouver to be developed.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Question on the sales stats: Are sales posted by MLS upon subject removal or closing? Trying to get a better sense of timing. Obviously there is a much longer lag time between signing the contract and closing than between signing and subject removal. Thanks

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    Flipflop says:

    > A little off topic, but can those who know recommend a decent discount brokerage for buying and selling NA securities?

    I'm a fan of Questrade – that is where my condo went when I sold in November. Every day a feel better about selling it.

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    @SuperSmartBull:

    The Marine Drive and Boundary property is in the process of being developed right now. It's tied up and plans are already in place to develop on it.

    The Big Bend area on the Burnaby side is now almost fully built out. And that was in the span of about 8 years.

    What's left?

    There is hardly any undeveloped land left. It's all gentrification and densification from here on out.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    19

    @Dave:

    The Big Bend area on the Burnaby side is now almost fully built out.

    Disagree, take a drive around there. Marine Way and Glenlyon, Marine Drive and Patterson, the whole Southpoint area which is only partly developed. This whole area is pretty much rural. The only thing that's been built up lately is the Market Crossing mall and a couple other small commercial buildings. If people were worried about the manure smell, why are subdivisions popping up all around Langley and Abbotsford?

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    @FlipFlop:

    I use scotia Itrade.

    If you have over 100k in the accounts then the trades are reasonable.

    Go look it up.

    Questrade is cheaper per trade, but It has mixed reviews…some love it though, so don't let that stop you if it has what you are looking for.

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    @Alum:

    10 Reasons To Buy a Home

    "After all, at the peak of the bubble five years ago…"

    Sure baby, come over in 5 years to remind us again.

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    @Kaspar H.:

    If you ever want to make money, buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys.

    Now, everyone is selling, you cannot deny that.

    Therefore, it is a good time to buy

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    @SuperSmartBull:

    Go look at the ALR map and come back to me.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    24

    @Dave: Sure, it're right here:

    http://www.alc.gov.bc.ca/mapping/alr_maps/Metro_V

    None of those areas I mentioned are in the ALR. There is still lots of room to build here, and this is only one area of several around Metro Van.

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    @Alum:

    If you ever want to make money, buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys.

    Now, everyone is selling, you cannot deny that.

    Therefore, it is a good time to buy

    Last I checked this was the Vancouver Condo blog.

    So maybe come back to us in 5 years to talk about a good time to buy.

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    This "nut" of the island sounds a lot more intelligent than the bulls on this board, thats for sure!

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    @FlipFlop: I use Scotia iTrade myself as it has a much lower commission than TD Waterhouse ($9.99 vs $19.99 for me). However I think there are even cheaper ones like QuestTrade or QTrade that charges $6.99. However read all the fine print as some brokerages will charge account inactivity fees or have minimum number of trades per quarter.

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    one doesn;t even have to go out to Burnaby or SE Van to see developable land. Just look east of the DTES at all that light industrial zoned land – all of which can be rezoned and turned into neighbourhoods close to the DT. And then there are the port lands – valuable for commerce now, but with the new super ports going in the north and south of the province, they do will eventually be freed up for devlopment.

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    /dev/null Says:
    29

    @Burpy: The made all the land that is now the coal harbour neighbourhood. Much to the disgust of all the people in buildings who thought that they had a waterfront view forever.

    Imagine what everyone in Yaletown is going to think when they fill in False Creek…

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    Not much of a name.. Says:
    30

    @Dave: "What’s left?

    There is hardly any undeveloped land left. It’s all gentrification and densification from here on out."

    But can't the same be said for the vast majority of city centres? Does Toronto have large tracts of land downtown to develop?

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    /dev/null Says:
    31

    @“A-sharp” Accountant: I use scotia Itrade.

    If you have over 100k in the accounts then the trades are reasonable.

    TD Waterhouse does this too (not that I have 100k to get the deal). You can combine totals across all your accounts (so e.g. your spouse's RRSP counts too) if that helps.

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    @Not much of a name…: Exactly so.

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    @Anonymous:

    "If Vancouver real estate bulls weren’t up to their eye balls in debt they could afford to visit a true world class city like manhattan and they’d know that it is possible to make more land."

    It's incredibly childish to assume that people owning a home can't afford to travel. Why should we take any notice of the rest of your points when you're unable to express yourself without making dumb generalizations?

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    Not much of a name.. Says:
    34

    @Absinthe: I'm just trying to understand how "we don't have any land to develop" works. In my travels, I haven't seen many cities that are different from Vancouver in that their central cores and immediate surrounding areas are all developed. Like Dave said, it's all about gentrification and densification. But, why is Vancouver different when all other cities face the same "challenge"?

    This argument used can be applied to any city. If you want to build large numbers of SFH, developers move further away from the central core, just like Vancouver is doing. Coquitlam (Burke Mountain), Langley, Surrey, Maple Ridge, etc. It is no different here with respect to land availabilty than any other city. Some may have to get rezoned (ALR), but never say never.

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    @Patiently Waiting:

    "LOL the BEST PLACE ON EARTH is not even in this study. "

    LOL, you should go live in Bucharest then. It's a dream-come-true paradise city, which doesn't at all look like a 1960s concrete nightmare.

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    5 Vancouver BC Says:
    36

    *^*

    //\

    van

    IIIII

    re

    IIIII(¯`v´¯)

    `•.¸.•´

    ¸.•´¸.•´¨) ¸.•*¨)

    (¸.•´ (¸.•´ (¸.•´¯`•–> Ready to rock ♥ ☼ ♥

    DD recession fear disappeared and consumer confidence is on the rise.

    IN RESULTS: Vancouver Real estate is set to rock within few hours.

    North 5 Vancouver BC

    **♥☆**♥☆**♥☆**♥☆**

    RIGHT OF WAY

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    @Alum:

    If you ever want to make money, buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys.

    Now, everyone is selling, you cannot deny that.

    Therefore, it is a good time to buy

    I believe you're referring to one of Warren Buffet's famous quotes;

    ….attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful

    I think there's still a little too much greed in this market to consider it 'fearful'.

    He has a couple other doosies as well;

    When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.

    You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong.

    Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

    The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth.

    All of which apply to today's RE market in Vancouver

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    @Not much of a name…:

    It's unique. Vancouver has an ocean to the west, mountains to the north, a border to the south and ALR land to the east.

    Cities like Calgary or Edmonton can keep growing at the periphery.

    Vancouver is almost completely built out. We aren't there yet and there is still land in South Surrey, Abbotsford, Chilliwack, Mission and Maple Ridge. It might take a few more decades before we are truly built out, but it sure isn't far off.

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    fixie guy Says:
    39

    Anoymous Says: "It’s incredibly childish to assume that people owning a home can’t afford to travel. Why should we take any notice of the rest of your points when you’re unable to express yourself without making dumb generalizations?"

    As opposed to 'bitter', 'priced out', 'basement dweller'? There's no hypocrisy in calling you a hypocrite.

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    WiseInvestor70 Says:
    40

    Real estate freefall

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    Best place on meth Says:
    41

    Land making is easy, kids.

    They do it in Dubai

    http://environmentalgeography.files.wordpress.com

    They do it in Japan

    http://www.virginmedia.com/images/kansai-airport2

    They do it in Miami

    http://www.kafka-franz.com/images/Di-Lid4.jpg

    They can do it here too, but they don't need to. There's plenty of land in Greater Vancouver so this is the dumbest argument of all from desperate cheerleaders trying to justify outrageous prices.

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    @Dave: Hey Dave, San Diego has an ocean to the west, border to the south, Orange County to the North, and the desert to the east.

    And look what happened to RE prices there.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    43

    @Dave: I wouldn't say Vancouver is unique, but agree that it has more geographical challenges than say Calgary or Phoenix. That might explain some of the premium over 3x 'fundamentals', people are willing to pay more to avoid a 1.5 hour commute from Abbotsford. As the city continues to grow I wonder if that will be mitigated as more commercial activity and jobs move out to the valley, with Surrey as a second 'city center'.

    But to say that Vancouver is pretty much 'built out' except for parts of South Surrey, Abby, Mission and Chilliwack is a stretch to say the least.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    44

    @Girlbear: And yet, San Diego is still way more expensive than 3x 'fundamentals' bears say it should be. And prices have been rising again for more than a year.

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    @Not much of a name…:

    Some may have to get rezoned (ALR), but never say never.

    If there's ever a real squeeze for land (not for decades), ALR tracts will get rezoned in a jiffy.

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    raggedyrenter Says:
    46

    We're not built out yet. Ports can be moved to less populous and cheaper lands. Light industrial parts of the town can be rezoned. Old warehouses, unused buildings can always be repurposed.

    Granted there is probably no huge tract of wilderness. However a lot of things in Lower Mainland can be repurposed to living space.

    Take a drive around your neighbourhood. Those languishing small businesses squeezed by economy and Walmart? Small townhouses/duplexes. Those decrepit warehouses? Condo towers.

    Struggling manufacturer competing with Chinese imports? small SFH complex.

    HK, Singapore looks stiffled, Lower Mainland in comparison looks wide open.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    47

    @SuperSmartBull: LOL, voting down inconvenient facts again?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @raggedyrenter:

    Built out doesn't mean you still can't densify. It means unused land, which is where this discussion started. Somebody said there was lots of unused land in Vancouver. That isn't the case. Industrial land is expensive here for that reason.

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    @SuperSmartBull: supernolifebull – you must be an incredible loser and a sad site to see. You post here on a bear site all day every day rain or shine and argue with anyone that will show you any attention. Do you have a family, any friends, a hobby, a job, a life? do you live in your mom's basement? what a sad fellow you must be. I feel sorry for you.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    SuperSmartBull Says:
    50

    @Hmmmm…: This is your first post, and this is best you can come up with? Now I feel sorry for you.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @SuperSmartBull: Not only that but you spend all day glued to this site and are the first to view and respond to every post. What a pityfull existence. You pay a gigantic premium to live in Vancouver and you spend all your time doing this?

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    @Best place on meth:

    Any idea of what that land goes for? You think you could create it in Vancouver for under $1million per acre?

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    "A-sharp" Says:
    53

    @WiseInvestor70:

    When will people get it!?

    HIGH interest rates that are about to go lower is a M-U-C-H better time to buy a home than low interest rates that are about to go higher.

    In the USA, Low interest rates are a great reason to buy, and the "if you dont buy now, you'll have to pay a higher rate later even if the price is lower" argument actually holds financial weight.

    I am so sick of misinformation. This IS one reason that our mortgage markets are a LOT riskier than the US markets…our whole system is one HUGE A.R.M. The only reason we have not suffered the consequences of this in the last 30 years is because interest rates have been steadily dropping.

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    @Dave: "Built out doesn’t mean you still can’t densify."

    So how much of a premium should we add to land if we assume no more land to develop? By my measure the "premium" is at absolute best is about 30% assuming 2% population growth rate. It must be less because Vancouver CMA is nowhere near being "built out" and building costs increase with density increases, meaning effective NOI is reduced below this measure.

    In addition many properties like the Vancouver "SFH" a.k.a. townhouse are already partially densified already, meaning their density premium is already reduced. For highrise condos there is close to no density premium at all.

    As for premiums for gentrification, well if you think the highly desirable west end with 40 year old highrises is due for gentrification any time soon, get comfortable. Same goes for many of those early '90s highrises that are approaching 20 years. Not too much longer before they're purpose built rental fodder.

    But you have good points. Gentrification and densification are reasonable arguments for Vancouver carrying a premium. I think we will disagree on how much a premium they produce.

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    blueskies Says:
    55

    now all the binners in Vancouver can become
    real estate moguls
    it’s all good!!

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    Farts In My Pants Says:
    56

    This argument is stupid. There's plenty of free land to build on around here, you can easily house MILLIONS of people in addition to the existing population in GVRD and it's not going to be anywhere close to true urban density, as observed around the world in any metropolitan centre – Europe, Asia or either of Americas. The "there's no more land" theory could have worked ions ago when people could only see as far as the horizon – that's how they insisted the Earth was flat too… all you need now is Google Maps with satellite view and you can see hectares of undeveloped or re-developable land and that's not even including re-zoning and densification opportunities.

    "The Moon is made of Cheese!

    -No it's not!

    -Yes, it is too!!

    -No it isn't!!!

    -It is too!!!

    Sounds familiar?

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    @jesse:

    I don't know. I don't think that's something that can be generalized because there are so many factors.

    The bigger point is that our city can't keep growing outwards. We can only grow inwards. We also have limitations on our transportation infrastructure and some areas of the Lower Mainland will always demand a premium.

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    @Dave:

    Who cares if it takes more than 1 million per acre to create land? Land sells for 15 million per acre in Vancouver.

    Again Dave with the false comparisons. You never even try to debate honestly.

    Tell me where in Greater Vancouver you can buy residential land for 1 million per acre, ESPECIALLY waterfront.

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    @Farts In My Pants:

    Stinky, developing new land isn't as simple as looking at Google. Did you ever think that those vacant lots or green space is that way for a reason?

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    @Farts In My Pants:

    You want to talk nothern beauty, isolation and no more land to build???

    How about Iceland?

    Here's what you can get there for $800K:
    http://www.viviun.com/AD-100245/

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    @Drachen:

    I am just talking about ballpark Industrial Land costs. $1million per acre is about right for Surrey or Coquitlam. It's more towards Vancouver.

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    @Dave:

    But… We're not talking about industrial land in Surrey or Coquitlam.

    Just for reference, a 3.5 acre artificial island in Dubai was slated to sell for $5 million US. Which would mean that, if you could produce something similar for a similar price in Vancouver you could turn a profit margin about ten times larger than the Dubai development. The CHEAPEST residential land I could find in Surrey goes for about three million an acre, so even there you could turn a profit (never mind that the cheapest land is no where near the water, and certainly not waterFRONT).

    So obviously cost is NOT the issue.

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    @Drachen:

    Cost isn't the only issue, there are many more including transportation, environmental, neighbours, geotechnical, etc…

    Money can overcome a lot of those things, but it comes at a price. Big projects take big money. It costs hundreds of millions to build a fabric roof on BC Place. Does that not intuitively seem easier to do than creating 5 acres of land over Burrard Inlet?

    It's a stupid discussion, because we all know it won't happen. The only new land that will be created is another port or two in Delta.

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    @Dave: "We also have limitations on our transportation infrastructure and some areas of the Lower Mainland will always demand a premium."

    That is nothing that can't be solved with better infrastructure. In fact better transportation may actually increase prices in the city centre.

    I don't buy the argument that there are "too many factors" to estimate price. Price to rent and price to income ratios, accounting for future rent and income growth through gentrification and density increases, is a great place to start. Using nebulous abstractions is fine but don't be surprised if the price wrought from such a set of abstractions isn't that accurate.

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    Not sure if this was posted before or not, but here's agreat "RE Agent vs. Home Inspector" article from the Georgia Straight:

    http://straight.com/article-346109/vancouver/real

    The once 'easy' life of a realtor is now turning quite sour!!!

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    Tony Danza Says:
    66

    @jesse: Jesse I think you're forgetting the "It" factor, Vancouver's got it in spades and it's the only fundamental savvy investors like Dave need to understand.

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    The other Garth Says:
    67

    @Ha! Ha!: When I buy a house I am going to hire that Ed Witzke guy to do the home inspection. Sounds like a no bull straight talker.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Dave: "Does that not intuitively seem easier to do than creating 5 acres of land over Burrard Inlet?"

    Why use intuition when you can get the actual numbers? Is that your problem, why all your arguments are so deeply flawed? You'd rather spend ten seconds blathering about something you know nothing about rather than taking one minute to get informed.

    3.5 Acres in Dubai costs $5 million US. Use that as a base, even if you assume it's double, triple, hell even eight times as expensive here you STILL would make a profit.

    "It’s a stupid discussion, because we all know it won’t happen."

    Then why are you pursuing it if it's a stupid discussion….Oh right, nevermind.

    The real reason it won't happen is because there's no DEMAND. There's no DEMAND because there's no real lack of land in Vancouver, there's no pressure to build outwards into the sea.

    The whole population density argument is complete and utter BS. In Singapore you can buy a 5 bedroom 2,200 square foot detached house for 1.35 million (Canadian).

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    @The other Garth: No kidding … it'd be worth getting him over from Victoria just for the brutal honesty alone!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    BadNewsBears Says:
    70

    First comment is best comment! Now you silly bears sitting on site moaning all day should be inspired to go get bottles! Go build island and have free electricity! And bug! Beautiful bug! And it create air you breathe! And all that fashionable furniture look like it thrown away by commercial drive hippie! It's all free!

    Go now, Bear! Go before binner take all your bottles! Maybe try to get job at return depot (gold mine for new land?)

    How many listings added today? I bet today is BIG day for sales! How about you? I bet listings rush is over. It was only two days. So sorry Bear. You missed out again.

    Ha ha! Dumb Bear

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    @Drachen:

    I can guarantee I know more about it than you do. Just a hunch though.

    This isn't Dubai and it's too complicated to generalize a per acre cost. Way too many variables. It's not only expensive, but near impossible to do in Vancouver. A little easier in Delta, but expensive nonetheless.

    If you think it is so easy, you should try to build a new SFH neighbourhood in the middle of Burrard Inlet. Let me know how that goes for ya.

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    @Anon:

    Aren’t alot of the remaining land in the province leasehold aboriginal land? West Marine Dr., Squamish, UBC?

    No.

    The aboriginal bands are claiming the whole province but that's just a negotiating position. They are not going to get it. Also privately owned land is not on the table.

    The only leasehold aboriginal land in BC is within recognized reserves. Like Musqueam on SW Marine.

    Note that aboriginal land claims have not stopped UBC from proceeding with its massive RE development. Or any other public or private sector landowner, including of course the CoV.

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    73

    How many know that there used to be a creek running between False Creek and Burrard Inlet, and that much of the False creek waterfront is old landfill.

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    BadNewsBears Says:
    74

    Who care about First Nations and land? No way they get any more land. They can't use what they have. They would only store more busted up appliances and wrecked cars on their front lawn. Before first nations get land they need to learn to garden and mow lawn.

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    75

    IMHO…..the agenda is high density, wether there is a land shortage or not.

    High density is the biggest cash cow for Local Gov'ts. The poli-whores can grab DCC's, impose their latest envir-whims,etc. etc.

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    Tony Danza Says:
    76

    @NO-LYMPICS: Old landfill made up of endhaul from the construction of railroads and highways leading out of Vancouver to be exact.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Tony Danza Says:
    77

    @BadNewsBears: Wow Rob Chipman's a racist now?

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    78

    Re Ed Witzke:

    The realtor's complaint will backfire and make the realtor look like a desperate commisssion grabber. While Witzke isn't cheap, the realtor makes probably 20 X's in commission than Witzke's fee. If I were Witzke, I'd file a complaint with the Real Estate board…tit for tat.

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    79

    77 Tony Danza

    That and a lot more.

    In the early 80's while Expo was being built, it became known that all sorts of artifacts were popping up. Old bottles. old shoes etc attracted a lot of treasure hunters. GM Place apparently exposed a mother lode of old Coke bottles, and drove the collectible price down.

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    /dev/null Says:
    80

    @Anon: You’re serious about combining Waterhouse accounts to contribute to the $100,000 limit?

    Yes: http://www.tdwaterhouse.ca/trading/asff.jsp

    It's $10/trade with >$100K in household accounts ("Household accounts are defined as those TD Waterhouse Discount Brokerage accounts for clients living in the same household, with the same address. You must advise TD Waterhouse Discount Brokerage of these multiple account relationships.")

    Maybe I'm mis-reading though so check before you move over. I'm not trading much of anything at the moment (my aversion to risk keeps me out of equities as well as Vancouver real estate, we'll see if that is a mistake) but the online interface is simple enough to use. For a couple, 2 RRSPs, 2TFSAs and an RESP can help edge you over 100k. Below that you're paying $29 so keep that in mind too.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    yikes

    New Listings 152

    Price Changes 87

    Sold Listings 151

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    82

    @paulb.: Maybe the board knows people are watching the daily numbers closely (obsessively?) and they're messing with them to create drama. :P

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    anyone know what the inventory levels are?

    thanks paulb…well, this is going to be a long process, i'm hearing its actually picking up out there….at least a bit. at least for now.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    specialfx3000 Says:
    84

    @BadNewsBears:

    "I bet today is BIG day for sales! How about you?"

    Very convenient for you to post this challenge around 2pm today BadNewsBears. My bet is that you're a realtor and you already knew that today is a big sales day. Did you cash in on one of the 151 sales?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    manna from heaven Says:
    85

    In respect to today's sales: does this city have an unlimited supply of dimwits?

    "I feel like I'm taking crazy pills"

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    It seems reports of the real estate markets death have been greatly exaggerated

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Patiently Waiting:

    I think the point to take away from this is to not read to much into daily numbers. Don't get too excited about a good or bad day.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @NO-LYMPICS: Witzke is known as the "dealbreaker" amongst Realtors. With good reason. He goes the extra mile during inspections and works solely for the buyer.

    If you're going to use someone like Witzke, think about how likely the seller is to move on price. If they won't budge when the inspection report comes in, it's probably not worth your time making an offer in the first place. I'd make the expectation of price drops due to unreported deficiencies crystal clear upfront. Also mention Witzke is your inspector. That should go some ways to weed out a frivolous accepted offer and the 1-2K Witzke will cost you — if they know your inspection is for real and they're trying to hide something, they'll probably not bother accepting an offer from you in the first place.

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    Kim Jong-il buy 3 Says:
    89

    Well chalk these sales up to cheap interest rates. Even Coast Capital Savings is advertising a 3.45% Five year fixed rate….I think this silliness is going to continue for a few more months 

    https://www.coastcapitalsavings.com/Personal/

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    one day's sales are one day's sales…remember yesterday!

    its the trend my friend.

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    Anonymous Says:
    91

    Looks like the "Sales Entry Clerk" left at noon yesterday. Heh.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Dumberbull Says:
    92

    It's Garth! Must be Garth and his show in Vancouver. He talked locals yesterday into buying RE now;)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Tony Danza Says:
    93

    @paulb.: Well that's the end of the bear market, everyone re-list the coast is clear!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Dev/Null

    Thanks, that clarifies things. I was going to open a tsfa for my wife with an online trader, but I'll give TD a call to confirm things first might come in handy one day.

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    95

    jesse:

    I took a course from Witzke at BCIT. at the time, he subcontracted work to various trades.

    I also met him near his home, which at the time was a 1950s bungalow home in east Van.

    IMHO, home inspection is a risky career and one is only one pissed off client with a good lawyer away from bankruptcy or needing a new career.

    A home inspector can only give you good edcuated guesses.

    In essence, the key is sufficient errors and ommissions insurance.

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    pricedoutfornow Says:
    96

    Been seeing a lot of sold signs around Vancouver this week. Interesting.

    Then today on the CBC business news, reports are that Canadians have the second highest household debt within the G-7 (who's number 1, I didn't hear). And then the economist says something along the lines of "economy not doing spectacular, blahblahblah" and then says key words which mean a crash is imminent…SOFT LANDING!!!! Here it is guys! As soon as they start talking "soft landing" you know the S is about to HTF. In the real world of bubbles (not the fantasy world economists live in), there is no such thing as soft landing. (cue Americans rolling on the floor, laughing at us, pointing fingers-suckers!!!)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    97

    I've got to hand it to Cancun Guy, he's clearly thinking way outside the box. He may not even know of the existence of a box.

    If he built that place in Vancouver it would sell for $1.7 million.

    I do hope he's aware of those 2 hurricanes coming in from the east but I'm sure he's got a barometer on that thing somewhere.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    151 SOLDS does not mean that 151 houses were sold yesterday/today. These houses were sold in the last 2-3 weeks, and could have cleared yesterday or tomorrow instead of today. When paperwork is submitted, it is unknown when the actual sale date will be. 10 houses could all submit paperwork on the same day and yet have 10 different sale dates.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Got an email today about Wall Center False Creek (W 1st / Columbia) announcing price cuts. Their previous ad said "99 homes for under $400K", now it says "120 homes for under $350K"

    So they've either reduced prices, or brought forward some lower-priced units into the first "phase".

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @G: Allz I know is the market is HOT HOT HOT again. To the 150+ people who closed on a home deal today, welcome to the good life

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Vanrod: Do you mean 35 years of kiss ur freedom goodbye.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    New Listings 208

    Price Changes 108

    Sold Listings 161

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Tony Danza Says:
    103

    @Vanrod: Just keep telling yourself that your KD diet and collection agencies stalking you night and day is the good life.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    We are starting to see some September sales reported now. As I mentioned last week, expect to see some high sales days. Of course, I was voted down by the pathetic confirmation-seeking reality-denying silent majority that visit this blog!

    Go ahead sheep – vote me down. BEAR in mind, I was a bull until 2007 and I'm a bear now.

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    asdfsdfbvv Says:
    105

    Anyone going to the Garth Turner event @ four seasons tonight? I do not have tickets but was thinking of walking by and seeing if I can get in?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    106

    More bubble talk

    ' When Canadian housing sector stakeholders hear the word "bubble," they typically think of the United States. There, during the past decade, house prices skyrocketed to record highs, fed by cheap interest rates and no-questions-asked loans, and then came crashing back down. Many U.S. homes lost more than half their value from peak levels. '

    http://money.ca.msn.com/banking/bankrate/article….

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    Best place on meth Says:
    107

    @Vanrod:

    Oh, that's rich!

    The worthless cheerleaders have 2 good days and 9 shitty ones this month and they think they're winning. I'd love to own a casino and have lots of happy customers like you.

    Hey Vanrod, do you have a mangina per chance?

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    van coffee Says:
    108

    Live bloggin for the garth turner event.

    Place is jammed.

    Should be a good show.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    109

    Larry's having quite the tirade against a fellow realtor over on his site.

    http://www.yattermatters.com/2010/09/in-downtown-

    I love realtor fights, I just wish more of them involved pistols.

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    @van coffee: Can you ask him why he is always wrong about everything?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    SuperSmartBull Says:
    111

    @Vanrod: Remember, as long as he's a bear he only has to right once. Someday. In the future. Until then he can just be entertaining and sell generators and books.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    van coffee Says:
    112

    Van rod -

    Will do.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Vanrod:

    It's actually a good question. I suspect Garth will provide a Patriotz like answer where you can hide under the guise of the unpredictability of Greater Fools. Can't ever be wrong using that rationale.

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    “RE Agent vs. Home Inspector”

    95% of "home inspections" are a scam. The home inspector is working with the realtor to give the house a pass. If they pass the house they get more jobs. They may find a leaky flapper valve on the toilet or a door handle that is sticky but that is it.

    Most people would be better off without a "home inspection" as they may actually look over the house themselves properly. It gives a false sense of security. The inspection agreement maximizes damages at the cost of the inspection so suing is a waste of time if the inspector misses things.

    It is unbelievable a realtor can even put in a complaint against a home inspector NOT working for them. It shows how screwed up the system is. Who gives a fck what the realtor thinks.

    There are a few good home inspectors around. They call themselves independent home inspectors. They charge more and do not work with realtors.

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    van coffee Says:
    115

    For anyone wishng they went to see gart turner tonight, be glad you missed it.

    His presentation is totally retarded. I may never read his blog again.

    Total waste of time and I used to enjoy reading his blog.

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    van coffee Says:
    116

    I am leaving. This is fcking retarded. Someone else can take over if they wish.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    117

    @van coffee

    Specifics?

    Talking points?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    "You see, Cameron Muir is to BC what David Lereah was to the American housing business, as chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. When the US housing bubble started to pop in early 2006 there was a quick decline of less than 10%. On September 25, 2006, Mr. Lereah told the media (who reported it): “We’ve been anticipating a price correction and now it’s here. The price drop has stopped the bleeding for housing sales. We think the housing market has now hit bottom.”

    Yeah bit of a cheap post'. Got it from Greater fool

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    Best place on meth Says:
    119

    @Dave:

    It's actually an extremely poor question due to its vagueness.

    I prefer specific questions, not the kindergarten variety.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    120

    @Patiently Waiting: "LOL the BEST PLACE ON EARTH is not even in this study. I wonder where it would rank if it was."

    Vancouver does not have any real economy other than Olympics and rich Asians. :))))))

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    121

    @FlipFlop:

    I agreed with Space889 about reading all the fine prints as some cheaper "brokerages will charge account inactivity fees or have minimum number of trades per quarter". Scortia iTrade and TD Waterhouse are quite competitive @$10 per trade. Used to be $30.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Check it…

    http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/

    Also good stuff. Housing is poooooooooched….

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Here's an interesting little article on a Stats Can release today, listing the ten Canadian cities with the highest median household income based on 2008 personal income tax returns. Surprise surprise, Vancouver doesn't even make the list! Calgary tops it, and Victoria comes in a #7. Now tell me again, why do we have the highest real estate prices in Canada?

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/thewest/Calgary+

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    Suzanne researched t Says:
    124

    @Van Coffee

    His presentation is totally retarded. I may never read his blog again.

    Have you every actually read Garth's blog? His talk might as well have been cut and pasted word for word from his last 100 posts.

    I personally thought it was entertaining, if redundant.

    Interestingly, the crowd was about 80% white. Yet whenever I go to an open house or wander through a pre-sale showroom, the crowd is about 80% Chinese. Just an observation.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Garth's talk was what you'd expect – similar themes and style to what he writes on his his blog. I disagree with at least 25% of what he says, but like him or not he is the best known housing bear in Canada – and your friends/coworkers are probably comparing you to him behind your back. :)

    Pretty high turnout, somewhere between 300 and 500.

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    Correct me for my ignorance:

    Aren’t alot of the remaining land in the province leasehold aboriginal land? West Marine Dr., Squamish, UBC?

    Wouldn’t this also be a detriment to zoning, densification, and appeal?

    PS. You’re serious about combining Waterhouse accounts to contribute to the $100,000 limit?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Raincouver Says:
    127

    Thanks, Pope, for the wonderful vid of the "land making" guy.

    Some people are just amazing and inspirational. It's hard to think out-of-the-box but this guy is doing it. Thanks again.

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    @acefupn:

    Was he selling anything besides the usual dose of fear?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Best place on meth: Actually its a very good question simple, yet to the point. He is always wrong, and not just about real estate. He makes calls and then claims later he never made them. Nobody is perfect, but do some google searches on his past calls – all wrong

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    @Dave – He actually seemed upbeat on every type of asset except Canadian housing, especially Vancouver.

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    This entire thread is DOUCHY.

    Douchy WITH excessive backwash.

    Move on.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Dave:

    Was he selling anything besides the usual dose of fear?

    Well, he wasn't blowing sunshine up people's behinds.

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    ulsterman Says:
    133

    I was at the GT show tonight and it was OK. Exactly what you'd expect from reading his blog. Many of the slides were rushed, but you can get the fine details yourself.

    To his credit he did not try to sell his books or services as a fee-only financial advisor. He gave away 4 copies by raffle.

    What was most entertaining thought was the couple from Canaccord – the Gordon group, who arranged the show. After hearing them speak (introducing GT and their comment on gold) I would NEVER even consider letting them manage my money. They were awful!

    If you went tonight and were disppointed, you clearly do not read GT's blog carefully enough. It was his blog points encapsulated in a 45min powerpoint presentation. I went because a) it was free, b) i wanted to see the man in person, and c) I wanted to see the deomographic of Vancouver real-estate bears. Pretty much what i expected – late 20's to 40's and mainly white.

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    Ian Watt Says:
    134

    Hello Best Place on Meth,

    I think we had an email exchange recently regarding my filthy foreclosure. Ha! Great pics, yes. Anyways, in regards to your comment, #110, that would indeed be me that Larry is having issues with. I don't usually comment on any other sites but this guy has taken it just a step too far (and if you watch my videos you know that I have no problems swinging back or naming names).

    Why he rants on and on about me I don't know. That is one of my condogo listings and I don't take calls for any of them. I can be reached by any realtor via text or email. These then get forwarded to my property concierges (other licensed realtors who assist me). In exchange for my not having to run all over town, find parking, do a showing, but still have it shown by a licensed assistant my commission rate is 40% less to the seller (and none off the buyers side). Is that hard to understand? It says "Don't Call. Email or Text". Not "Don't call, email or test".

    I hope that clears the air a bit and we can all go back to our business. Larry, I forgive your misunderstanding but I do not forgive your ranting and raving. Take a pill.

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    crashcow Says:
    135

    @ulsterman: Totally agree re: Gordon Group. What kind of advisor allows a portfolio to be 90% in one asset…let alone an asset as emotional and incomeless as Gold? They obviously skipped the part in the textbook about how 90% of a portfolio’s variance is attributed to differences in asset allocation.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Ian Watt: "but I do not forgive your ranting and raving. Take a pill."

    That's funny, especially considering the source–someone who rants and raves on his v-logs all the time!! (I mean that with love not vitriol, IW. I find your commentaries amusing and straightforward. I enjoy watching them.)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    The next Vancouver investment bubble: Realtor cage fighting!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    I saw Garth — if anyone left, they weren't missed. Place was packed, and the laughter and applause suggested most enjoyed it immensely. van coffee sounds like a realtor sock puppet.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    realpaul Says:
    139

    After reading about the aftermath of Garths show in Van koo koo I was struck by the similarity between the current disparity of 'home buyers' in Vancouvers real estate 'reality' to Stilltoes 1970's novel…'Travels in Nihilon'. People in the fiction built their homes at the foot of a dam that had purposely built with a flaw ensuring that any moment the dam would explode and innundate the town killing everyone. The photo of Garths crowd exposed a zany eagerness to experiance the oblivion that the obvious crash will entail.

    Look at picture @ greaterfool.com …..scary….the eyes……like serial killers….no connection to reality….proto evolutionary…..bi-cameral….mass hypnosis. Way to convinced that the RE market will only go up. From what I read in Garths blog they were asking questions regarding the make of the locmotive but refusing to see it barreling down on them. Were these people frightened to the point of total denial?????

    I'll bet if the Hari Krisna's the Scientolgists or Moonies were looking for fresh meat to induce into their cults this would have been the place to harvest. Those eager frightening eyes………………….yikes.

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    Anonymous Says:
    140

    Just a thought regarding paul's stats. I have no idea how much the Chinese buyers contribute to overall buyers as a percentage, but assuming it is a significant percentage, is it possible the high sales number today compared to the past few days correlates to the end of the "ghost month"? Chinese will not make a house purchase during the ghost month and may have held off till that period ended. That would explain the low numbers previously and the sudden spike.

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    Anonymous Says:
    141

    @Ian Watt:

    “Don’t Call. Email or Text”. Not “Don’t call, email or test”.

    Try

    Don’t Call, Please Email or Text Only

    I had to read it several times to figure it out.

    Nice to see realtors undercutting each other on commissions. How much for email only? 80% off? Snail mail free?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @realpaul: WTF are you going on about now? Those people are there because they suspect the dam is faulty, and want to know how to get out of the way. You have no clue what people were asking (although there was only time for a few questions) because you were not there, so maybe you should keep your mouth shut.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    tongue-in-cheek Says:
    143

    @Anonymous: The commies are atheists or agnostics, at least they are not superstitious.

    The next batch to arrive is between September 22nd (lunar August moon festival) and October 1st-7th (National Days).

    Serously, I heard "their" realtors are busy. Most purchases are around $500k.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Garth's presentation was intentionally entertaining. The husband and wife team were unintentionally entertaining. 90% gold is their diversified portfolio.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

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