WSJ on Canada debt levels
ReadyToPop pointed out this article in the Wall Street Journal:
TORONTO (Dow Jones)–Canadians are justifiably worried about their rising debt loads.
According to Statistics Canada, household liabilities rose by C$31 billion in the second quarter to stand at a record C$1.48 trillion at the end of June. Meanwhile, household net worth fell for the first time since early 2009, declining by C$34 billion to C$5.9 trillion.
Those changes pushed the household debt-to-asset ratio up to 19.9% and the debt-to-net worth ratio up to 24.9%, each matching all-time highs, RBC Capital Markets noted.
Meanwhile, Scotia Capital has estimated that Canadian households have more debt as a share of total household assets than any other G7 country excepting the U.S. And the trends augur poorly: the U.S. Federal Reserve reported Friday that U.S. household debt tumbled by 2.3% as Americans continue to tighten their pursestrings. Within six months, Scotia Capital says, Canadians will be more heavily indebted than Americans.
Additionally, The Boeckh Investment Report notes the U.S. savings rate has risen to 6.5% while the Canadian savings rate has fallen to 2 1/2%.
September 29th, 2010 at 11:19 am
"On the backs of the taxpayer we will prosper" is the mantra of the civil service.
EI Premiums..in spite of running of surplus…are being increased as a hidden new income tax. Rates will rise One Thousand Percent more than the stated official rate of inflation.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Feds+expecte…
Gouge gouge gouge until the citizen is entirely beholden to the government for handouts as he is unable to support himself on his wage. The march to 100% tax is well underway as we are far in excess of 85% now according to numbers that are already years out of date.
What about saving money by cutting the fat as is being done in every other modern economy?????? Is Harper so desperate for his majority that he won't he won't cut the civil service until he has it? Does pandering to every special intrest and parasite make Canada a stronger nation?
September 29th, 2010 at 4:23 am
Maybe, but I just got back from driving a big loop around southern BC to the Rockies and back, and the countryside is covered with those "Canada's Action Plan" billboards. The feds are pumping huge money into highways & bridges. It looks like quite a few of them are over half done or finishing up, so I don't know how much longer those construction workers will be busy.
Another thing I noticed was how "poor" the Kooteney & Yoho National Parks seemed on the BC side as opposed to the "rich" Alberta side facilities in Banff and Lake Louise. I suppose it's a matter of geography, but funny to think about how so many here don't think about anything in BC outside of Van/Victoria, while to the Calgarians, all they see is the backwater and more bust-than-boom eastern edge of the province with dots of half-dead resource towns.
The Field/Yoho visitor center had a huge "Visit Alberta" section and nothing about BC, you would never have known you were still in BC other than the license plates with that ridiculous slogan.
These are some of the best comments on this blog in quite a while thanks for the laughs everyone =)
September 29th, 2010 at 2:06 am
@copacabna
Anoymous Says: So perhaps it’s you or your attitude."
Lol, there you go copacabna, 'your attitude' causes people to behave this way. They're justified going out of their way to push you aside because of your shitty attitude.
Some people here are so fucked in the head they believe any of that makes sense. I agree, if the local culture has this Stepford undercurrent in the best years of Vancouver's history, imagine the full Picton when it goes sour.
September 29th, 2010 at 1:58 am
@copacabna:
"I live downtown, so I literally walk everywhere, so I see it alot."
Well I live downtown too, so like you I literally walk everywhere. And I don't see it at all. So perhaps it's you or your attitude.
September 29th, 2010 at 12:18 am
I meant walk under the awning when it rains. Damn, need coffee.
September 29th, 2010 at 12:17 am
"@copacabna: I guess I live too far out in the burbs to understand exactly what you mean. You mean they go way out of their way to make you get out of their way?"
I live downtown, so I literally walk everywhere, so I see it alot. Like I said, at first I thought it was like Manhattan, where everyone is just in a rush. But it happens for no reason. You will walk on the far right, and people will veer towards you. You can get forced into the street, or out of a crosswalk. Its a territorial thing, a passive agressive way of trying to establish social status. These are the same people that use an umbrella and wslk under the crosswalk. People will bump into you and not say anything.
I read one journalist describe Vancouver as the only city where they had seen sidewalk rage, like road rage.
Vancouver is the type of city where if we were all on the Titanic sinking, you would see men crawling over women and children to get onto the lifeboats. Thats pretty much all you need to know about Vancouver. If you don't believe me, ask the pregnant lady standing next to the seated guy "pretending" to be asleep on the skytrain.
I served in the military (not the Canadian Forces though) and I was thinking yesterday that the culture here was pretty much completely the opposite of that, and not in a good way.
Housing fundamentals aside, it's why the housing crash is happening here, and why it could be the biggest one on record. You literally couldnt find a bigger group of a**holes in the world. And God is not without a sense of humor.
September 28th, 2010 at 11:53 pm
I love how people rant about the quality of construction today and then invariably compare it to some century old or more home they lived in at some point. Of course those old remaining homes are solid, that's why they lasted so long! You don't think there's lots of old shacks that didn't stand the test of time? It's like pointing to a restored model T cruising down the street and saying, "See they don't make cars like that anymore, today's cars are such poor quality!"
September 28th, 2010 at 11:09 pm
@say what?:
"Outside walls are required to be 2×6 for greater insulation"
Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. All the new construction I see around where I live, including big projects done by major developers are built ENTIRELY out of 2×4 lumber. The only exception being the main floor of some four story buildings (I didn't think this was even allowed)
September 28th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
@say what?:
"needlessly complex in design"
I'm curious what you mean by that. I do agree that brick, unfortunately, isn't practical in an earthquake-zone. I'm just amazed at how our wood houses have gone from pretty to bland to fugly over the generations. We are so lucky to have the raw materials right here in this province, yet we can't build simple attractive housing anymore. Who trains the idiots who design these houses?
"causing rampant unemployment amongst the hated dependent industries"
Well good. This city's culture and economy totally revolves around ugly residential construction. Whether it be tear-down and rebuild, or endless renovations. Maybe we'll have a more diverse economy and sophisticated culture in the future. Wouldn't count on it though.
September 28th, 2010 at 7:15 pm
@Not much of a name…: I heard that they are waiting for people to close on units in OV prior to offering the incentives. I can’t remember where I read it, or how much truth there is to it.
I doubt any. The latest figure reported in the news was 257 sales. As of a week ago, 256 have closed.
September 28th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
yea whats the inventory at right now!?
September 28th, 2010 at 6:55 pm
Dot Gibson, of the National Pensioners Convention, said: “For years we’ve been told to put money aside for our retirement only to find that interest rates have sunk and now we have to use our savings just to pay the bills.”
Jason Riddle, of Save Our Savers, said: “The Bank was aware that there was a lack of saving before the financial crisis, but those who were prudently saving while others spent, are being heavily punished.”
Savers told to stop moaning and start spending
This is a British story but applies here too…it’s why we’re up the tainted creek without a paddle. These twisted people are now turning against pensioners and the prudent in our society….RTP
September 28th, 2010 at 6:48 pm
@Drachen:
The Con strategy has been not so much to rely on deficit spending per se, but to encourage increased consumer debt as an "off the books" stimulus. And we can see the results in spades.
Note also that CMHC borrowing to purchase mortgages does not show up in the deficit numbers. Until the mortgages that they have bought default.
September 28th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
@say what?:
"say what?" that was very interesting – can you please provide some references or links to read more?
September 28th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
#68 WTF , C'mon…is that even conversation? One Looney Liberal law professor defending the 'appointment' and 'opinion' of a Looney liberals interpretation of looney liberal justice? Is a like minded basket of loons swamping the country with a Trudeau inspired fuck fest for thirty years going to produce a cohort of loons? One two three…times up.
My law professor ( who was also a white bastard – damn us all for saving the world) was also a very political ( seated) Liberal Party Douchebag( the asshole) and afterwards I wrote public relations strategies for those cunts.. ( gun for hire and cynical as hell…never a believer).I'm pretty sure I understand how sleazy the Looney Liberal Political Machine is generally…. and…..how political appointments work in the ethnic ghetto's created ( the Liberal Party carved up territory and flooded small newly created immigrant rich constituencies) to misinterpret the will of the nation by stuffing Parliament with the newest seats in Spadina etc etc.
Did Wall Eyed Wally ever say 'boo' to the injustice perpetrated on the public during the outrageous conduct of the police forces in the past? Do's anyone expect anything else from his 'appointment' during the Picton hearing…Do I hear WHITEWASH ??????????????????????
Lets get real here…we ( under the Liberal Loon Show) have a policy of admitting 'visible minorities into the public service based on race.( note the recent illuminations by The Feds that 'whites need not apply for Fed jobs) This results in a public service that is politically correct ( according to the Liberal Loons) but not entirely competant.
See Singapore if you want to observe a ethnically diverse meritocracy….Canada is a pandering toilet of short term political values. We get dipshits like Waldo while Singapore sees its GDP rise by 35% this past quarter…..meritocracy vs dumbo-ocracy…rather apparent….eh?
September 28th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
Those of you making comments on construction quality have no clue what you are talking about. None. Start reading, please, even the most basic information. I can appreciate the sentiment if you are talking about builders "cutting corners" etc, but concerning the building code and quality thereof… briefly… Brick comes down in an earthquake, and as a structural component is not allowed. In fact, look around your area for the old brick chimneys on the outside of houses, and don't stand near them when the ground starts to shake. Brick as described previously would not be properly vented either. Plywood, OSB, wood in general is structural and has nothing at all to do with building envelope. First step toward eliminating leaky walls: overhangs and sloped roofs! Second step: proper installation of building envelope, especially around windows. Flimsy construction? That plywood provides shear strength primarily, and there are many interior sheeted shear walls, required here by engineers, that you would never seen in a non-earthquake zone. The walls themselves are bolted down to foundation and the successive floors are tied down to foundation using metal straps or rods, all of which was not the case in the past. Softwood lumber is not treated with anything, it is just dried in a kiln. Wet lumber and plywood dries out once under cover, and takes on moisture content proportional to air humidity, and at that moisture content does not deteriorate. Outside walls are required to be 2×6 for greater insulation… the list of things I read that are just wrong or clueless goes on and on.
I know a lot of you will be experiencing a knee-jerk reaction right now, so before you denounce this post as the rantings of a rabid housing bull whose livelihood depends on the Vancouver real estate ponzi, just take a breath and read the next sentence.
Houses here are needlessly complex in design, and drastically overpriced. The market here will eventually fail in dramatic fashion, causing rampant unemployment amongst the hated dependent industries, and a great many luxury cars will go unpurchased or unleased in many a sales lot.
September 28th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
@scullboy:
"More then once I’ve been impressed with how drivers stop and wave you across if you look like you’re even thinking about crossing the street… literally. A couple of times I had to give the “no, no, you go ahead, I’m not going to cross” gesture."
That happens to me in Vancouver at least once a week. People here hit the brake instead of the horn. If you're somehow implying that Vancouver drivers are aggressive maniacs then I suggest you spend a couple of hours in Rome.
September 28th, 2010 at 2:30 pm
@fixieguy:
Dude, I know what you mean, I really do… especially about the penny ante scam artists. Look, if you're going to pull a scam, pull a BIG one!
I was in Toronto on business myself a couple of months ago, and I was surprised at how relatively friendly people were. I was also impressed with the quality of service you get in Toronto.
Mind you the "relatively" part is important because relative to either Halifax beats 'em hands down. We don't have a lot of bike lanes but then again we don't seem to need 'em. I bike to and from work every day and every single day I'm astonished by how well mannered both cyclists and motorists are. You don't see cyclists acting like the signs and traffic lights apply only to cars. you also don't see cars acting like they're trying to run down cyclists. People don't act like psychos when they get behind the wheel here. People drive at sane speeds and obey the signs. More then once I've been impressed with how drivers stop and wave you across if you look like you're even thinking about crossing the street… literally. A couple of times I had to give the "no, no, you go ahead, I'm not going to cross" gesture.
I've been rollerblading and cycling in Canadian cities for 10 years now and I can safely say I have never felt safer biking then I do here. Seeing all the enraged comments about public transit and bike lanes from Torontonians and Vancouverites makes me smile. Elsewhere people get worked up into a fury about who is entitled to what. Meanwhile in this forgotten part of Canada, people quietly share and make the best of what they have.
Another thing that's awesome is the sheer volume of bike shops and used book stores. I just dropped my bike off for a tuneup and noticed there are 4 large used bookstores in a 2 block radius.
This part of the country is kind of the opposite of Van. There's very little pretentiousness. People are also extremely practical with resources and money. I suppose it's a product of being a "have – not" province for so long, but I really appreciate it. It's easy to find farmer's markets and local food here, which as a chef I appreciate a LOT.
None of this is meant as a slam on TO or Van, nor am I trying to claim Halifax is the best place in Canada, let alone the best place on earth. Frankly I'd prefer this part of Canada stay either forgotten or looked upon with patronizing contempt by Canadians west of Quebec. It's so easy to get worked up about all that bullshit.
Ulsterman I know what you mean about housing. I grew up in Cole Harbour (same little area as Sydney Crosby BTW) and in my family's subdivision the mandate was that the houses were 60% brick minimum. I drove through there a few months ago and what took my breath away was the it all looked… exactly the same. Every house stood exactly where it had when I was living there; there were no teardowns. The greenery and trees had grown but that was it.
The fact is, developers could build homes and buildings like that in BC. They choose not to, and I believe it's because of the penny ante ripoff vibe that goes through the city. I'm sure the vibe's been part of Van since the gold rush at least. It's really too bad.
September 28th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
@Best place on meth: Whoaaa! Hadn't noticed that.
September 28th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
@Drachen:
Look at Japan, they blow everyone away.
September 28th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
@Anonymous:
My position has been consistent throughout, feel free to look at any one of my earlier posts to confirm.
September 28th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
@copacabna: I guess I live too far out in the burbs to understand exactly what you mean. You mean they go way out of their way to make you get out of their way?
September 28th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
@vreaa:
By my standards Iceland, Italy and Greece have us beat. Those were the only ones I could find. That's public debt vs GDP, which is really the only measure that matters as GDP is the best way to measure how we could repay the debt.
Good job Conservatives. Don't bother paying down the debt, just use deficit spending to try to buy yourselves a majority!
I guess the 'Conservative' moniker refers to social values, 'cause financially they're the worst we've had in decades.
September 28th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
Re public debt levels per capita by country:
http://buttonwood.economist.com/content/gdc
Looks like we're right up there.
September 28th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
@SuperSmartBull: Funny… I remember way back when SSB first started posting here. He argued that Van RE would only ever go up. Then a few months later he argued that it would not fall. Then that became would not fall much. Now he is arguing that it will fall ONLY 10-20% over a few years. Holy shit we won! SuperSmartBull is now Average Intelligence Recently Reformed Bear. Dude, for all those idiots out there that bought with 5% down or less on a 600K mortgage or more anything over a 5% drop is a devastating crash. Put this into perspective. We are dealing with a generation of spoon fed morons who thinks the entire world owes them a mansion with granite everything and a 5 car garage. They are stone dead convinced that real estate only ever goes up, every year without fail because that is what the CMHC keeps telling them every night on Global as they fall asleep on their Ikea mattress full from a feast of Kraft Dinner. We are dealing with a market that is running on ether, totally supported only by rising prices until prices stop rising and then the whole deck of cards shifts then falls. When that last stupid asshole gets a 2×4 across the back of the head and thinks "holy crap, I can't afford that!", then the last stupid over leveraged asshole that bought before him is forced to sell, then the herd suddenly stops, turns about face and starts walking the opposite direction. The fact is that no one on this board or anywhere else has any idea how far this will fall because no one can claim in 2001 they knew that it would rise this high. Simple as that. I don't want the market to crash because it will devastate hundreds if not thousands of unassuming albeit incredibly stupid families. I did'nt want the bubble in the first place either because bubbles are bad for economies. Every bafoon in my neighborhood walking around spouting about how much his house has gone up – asshole wake up! 1) all it means is that the gov has cleverly figured out how to dramatically raise your taxes and make you happy about it and 2) 75% of income goes to housing which means there is a hell of a lot less money to support your local economy. It's really astonishing how short sighted and selfish so many people are.
September 28th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
WRT Scullboy's building quality anecdote. I believe this to be one of the most galling aspects of the insane housing prices on the LM. Not only are they insane to anyone in the world beyond the bubble of the "Playground of the Gods", but the quality is so pathetically poor.
When my civil/structural engineering dad came to visit me in 2005, he was shocked by the flimsiness of the houses built and being built. I have a distinct memory of helping him cut a hole in the wall of our modest little Irish home – we had a lot of fun (not) drilling through the two layers of brick separated by insulating foam. Our little house – two layers of red brick – solid as a rock 60 years after construction, and yours today for about C$200k in Belfast. And yes, the median income there is the same as the income here. Shocking concept i know.
September 28th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
Canada debt to gdp has exploded in the past couple of years since the US estimated it at 75%. Extrapolate 2010 to 08-09 growth and it is easily pushing 100 plus 2010-100 with the tsunami of additional 'stimulus' and zero growth.
http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/canada/canada_…
Bullish on Canada ……. why more than any other country when in fact Canada has surpassed US and UK, Euro, Aus etc in personal debt and negative affordability. Another bone to pick is the lack of transparency and availabilty with real time data as is the case in most other G20 economies.
Being bullish on Canada would mean that information is available for examination….this is not the case…the 'economist' is guessing at best…or he has some super access to information that no one else has…so which is it?
September 28th, 2010 at 12:41 pm
????????
Nassim Taleb, bullish on Canada
Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries and will keep that distinction until at least 2014, the country’s finance department said in March. Canada’s ratio, 24 percent in 2007, will rise to about 30 percent by 2014. The U.S. ratio, now above 40 percent, will top 80 percent in four years, the department said, citing IMF data.
“I am bullish on Canada,” he told the audience. “I prefer Canada to the U.S. or even Europe.”
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-25/obama…
September 28th, 2010 at 12:19 pm
@Burpy:
Oh come on, I've made my views pretty clear, small % of a price increase, small % of crash, most likely outcome is stagnation or 10-20% nominal drop spread over a few years. It's pretty clear that you are banking on a crash. So I'm not sure why you're dancing around your position now. But your example yesterday about the guy who 'lost' because he paid $350/month for a condo he owned for the past four years with sketchy interest numbers shows you're not really worth debating because you've got some more learning to do.
September 28th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
@I See Debt People: I stand corrected on the San Fran data, I was referring to different charts which show a much more garden variety correction, but failed to take a look at Case-Shiller which is pretty solid data:
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-San-Francisco…
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/San_Francisco-C…
But prices are still up in San Fran more than 11.2% YOY. So at least the second part of my statement is correct LOL.
September 28th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
@Junius:
Wow. I didn't think you were that uninformed. You and the dozen people who voted you up need to read up a little on real estate fundamentals, cause interest rates are not one. Or just read a Patriotz post or two. Because you can't seriously be proposing that as interest rates drop the fundamental value of a house increases? You need to think that through again.
September 28th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
@copacabna: "I will literally cross onto the other side, only to have people cross and play chicken."
I didn't realize this was a thing people did. It happened to me and I just ran into them.
September 28th, 2010 at 11:55 am
‘Under’ Construction – The Mouldy Shoe-Box Knockdowns of 2050-2060
With photos, and anecdotes from VCI posters (thanks!).
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1o1
September 28th, 2010 at 10:59 am
What's the current inventory, sorry if this is already posted.
September 28th, 2010 at 10:23 am
@sluggo: Never heard that before. Turns out the greater fool is you…sorry son
September 28th, 2010 at 9:58 am
September Projections for month totals
Days elapsed so far 19
Days remaining 2
Average Sales this month 104
Average Listings this month 229
Projected sell/list 45.3%
SALES
Projected month end total 2180 +/- 27
95% Conf Interval lower bound 2153
95% Conf Interval upper bound 2206
NEW LISTINGS
Projected month end total 4815 +/- 32
95% Conf Interval lower bound 4783
95% Conf Interval upper bound 4846
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of August 31st 15962
MoI at this sales pace 7.32
Note: This is a simple linear projection of month end totals.
This provides the answer to the question
"What will month end totals be, if things continue
on the same pace we've seen so far this month?"
September 28th, 2010 at 9:55 am
Thanks paulb.
130 more suckers….must be running out of idiots prety soon.
September 28th, 2010 at 9:54 am
"intentionally crossing sidewalks trying to make you move aside for them or their dog"
Coming from the prairies, at first I thought I was just being paranoid. I catch people doing it all the time! I will literally cross onto the other side, only to have people cross and play chicken.
Does anyone else notice this too? I have never seen it any other place I have lived.
September 28th, 2010 at 9:47 am
New Listings 193
Price Changes 105
Sold Listings 130