The bank said with household debt so high, it expects Canadians will spend less on consumer goods and on homes, meaning the housing market is in for a protracted cooling-off period.
Full article over at Yahoo
This post was submitted by wreckonomics.
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on Big banks facing home credit risk@RE Lurker: Nope. Your deposits in a credit union in BC are actually better insured than in a bank. Each on Big banks facing home credit riskUS ratings agencies are pretty credible. Not. That said, it's startling how many groups in the past few months are
on Big banks facing home credit risk--- #5 @rp1: #1 @jesse: “Banks, on a relative basis, are well protected.” And credit unions, at least where I
on Big banks facing home credit risk"The six banks have a combined $730-billion in mortgage exposure and an additional $182-billion in home equity loan exposure" Well
on Big banks facing home credit risk@Anonymous: "On a relative basis crack cocaine is safe compared to heroin" Actually the opposite, but this is simply not
October 20th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
@if this is wrong, i dont ever want to be right:
"AND even though we can find no recorded instance of a person living in a neighbourhood in Southern California or Vancouver where their neighbours all paid cash for their new cars, nor has anyone, including you, heard of such a thing,"
I never once claimed that was the case. If you want to use statistics to back up your case, at least try and apply them correctly. Frankly it's not my fault that you just want to pull numbers out of your ass to try and fit the picture that's in your head.
October 19th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
@Renting:
That is simply not true. Vision and Cope ran a joint slate in 2005, five candidates each.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vancouver_municipal_…
The historical fact is that the NPA has dominated Vancouver civic politics since the 1930's and has only been out of power when they've botched up and/or an attractive mayoral candidate has led their opposition – Art Phillips in the 70's, Mike Harcourt in the 80's, and Larry Campbell and Gregor Robertson more recently. That's only 18 years out of the last 75 or so.
October 19th, 2010 at 4:15 pm
@space889: Exactly, not like those bums who build a bike lane in a week.
October 19th, 2010 at 2:46 pm
@if this is wrong, i dont ever want to be right: Ouch. That should be the last we hear of that Anonymous character.
October 19th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
@anonymous
"The poster doesn’t even life in Canada. Try and get your facts right before puffing your chest up and hurling ill-thought insults."
Yes, I caught that, and based on the zip code in his handle, I could tell he lives near Oceanside/San Diego, my previous place of residence, which is why I specifically mentioned North America in my post. I now reside in Vancouver. San Diego was formerly known in real estate agent parlance as "the best place on earth" which has been clearly overtaken by Vancouver, due in no small part to geniuses, I mean intro to statistics class attenders such as yourself.
I wrote: "The false assumption would be that the majority of people in a given city in North America pay ALL CASH for a house or car."
I am also going to assume that you meant "lives in Canada" rather than "life in Canada"?
"The average of a sample set X1, X2, X3, … Xn is (X1 + X2 + X3 +… + Xn)/n
What you’re implying is that for any subset Y1..Ym of X, ( Y1 + .. + Ym ) / m = (X1 + X2 + X3 +… + Xn) / n, which is easily falsifiable."
And as someone else posted here, they had an equation that showed that the increased inclusion of a diverse enough set of sub prime mortgages, properly bundled and tranched, reduced the risk of default on any given mortgage backed security to zero. Clearly it did not.
So what does one do when real life meets academia? Is one wary, as Mr. Buffett warns us to be, of geeks bearing equations? Or does one cling to a notion based on a formula that clearly has no bearing on the discussion? Steadfastly insist that Mr. 90210 (j/k san diego) must live in a area where he is surrounded by all cash buyers?
Going back to what SD92129 said:
"And just like in the US, you can see it in neighborhoods where certain families are hunkering down and trying to reduce spending while others are still feeding wildly at the credit trough."
Which has been THE experience in North America in the last few years, since the great credit contraction of 2007. But that wasn't enough for you. You had to be a dick. So you wrote:
"Yes. I’d like to see how you know the credit histories and debt-loads of everybody in your neighborhood. Do you just assume that if you see a new car then they must be “feeding at the credit trough?"
When I pointed out that it was unlikely the poster lived in a neighbourhood where everybody paid all cash for their car, you insisted it was statistically possible, even though 89% of people do use credit to purchase or lease a car. AND even though we can find no recorded instance of a person living in a neighbourhood in Southern California or Vancouver where their neighbours all paid cash for their new cars, nor has anyone, including you, heard of such a thing, the original poster must be wrong because he did not personally check the credit report of each and every new car owner, and once again, given that 11 percent of the buyers of north american vehicles pay cash for their new cars, you go to great lengths, great lengths! to insist it is technically possible that this person lives in a neighbourhood which has a concentration of all cash buyers, and you think that person is a complete jackwad for making that VERY CORRECT assumption that he does not. You don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Your obstinance boggle the mind.
We all know that every neighbourhood in N. America contains people overextended on credit. Unless you have been living in a cave, the secret is out. You just felt like attacking him for, apparently being CORRECT.
Then you tried to come back with bullshit intro to statistics equations.
When you have solved the Goldbach Conjecture, come back, and we will talk. (the implication being um, never)
I'm angry because you are an asshole and tried to intellectually bully someone on the internet because he stated the TRUTH. Americans and Canadians are still feeding at the credit trough.
Now please, in the name of all that is holy, stop being an assclown. I know its statistically possible that you are not, but I am starting to think that (X_1 + X_2 + X_3+X_n)/n = db, where db is douchebag.
This is the second real estate bubble I've lived though in less than a decade, different country, but same song, second verse- and I don't need jackalopes behind keyboards telling me I don't see what I really do see. Are we going to believe you or our own eyes?
But admit it, you get off on trying to make other people feel dumb. You don't have to answer, the city of Vancouver is replete with people JUST LIKE YOU. I feel like I have met everyone of you since I moved here from America. (and you all seem to be homeowners!) So get up from your keyboard, go look in the mirror and repeat the following: I have used my god given brain power and partial university education to try and make strangers feel bad on the internet. I could've been somebody. I could've been a renter.
One prediction I did make about this housing bubble that has come true: I said the real fun begins, when you will know it is on like donkey kong, is when people start turning on each other like jackals when this whole Vancouver real estate scam goes bad.
And yes, you have proven once again, that you are THAT GUY. dont be that guy. life is too short.
Subteranean Homesick Blues indeed.
October 19th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
@Anonymous: You should be like Buffet, and buy a bunch of Goldman Sachs shares.
October 19th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
Some words of advice from Buffet:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buff…
October 19th, 2010 at 12:44 pm
@Anonymous: I think what he's saying is that without more information, you're better off going with the average of the whole sample (X_1 + … + X_n)/n than to ASSUME that MAYBE he lives in an area where the average of a subet (Y_1 + … + Y_m)/m better describes his neighborhood. I agree with this actually. I agree with the possibility but unless there is more info why not stick to averages of the whole sample?
October 19th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
Vancouver East & West*
New Listings – 65
Back On Market Listings – 1
Price Changes – 34
Sold Listings – 58/p>
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 206
Back On Market Listings – 5
Price Changes – 106
Sold Listings – 162
*Attached & Detached – Date: 10/19/2010 Time:17:37 Pacific YatterMatters.com:Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.
October 19th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Luongo is like RE
Overpriced and sucks
October 19th, 2010 at 11:31 am
@fixie guy:
I recommend Scullboy's salty balls. If you are lucky he might give you the tip. If you dont get your money back at least you get some bearback.
October 19th, 2010 at 11:10 am
what do you have against civil servants rp ?
I know a gal works long hours as a lawyer. makes way less than she could privately yet likes the work, feels she is making a difference, and doesn't have to work each and every weekend.
I think she's doing the country a good service.
(admittedly there is way too many managers, red tape and useless assistants in gov – is that who you are railing against? or do you just hate them all?)
October 19th, 2010 at 11:04 am
80 Master-Bear-Tor Says:
October 19th, 2010 at 6:58 pm
@fixie guy:
I recommend Scullboy’s salty meatballs
=========================
Oh yummy -kins;
Count me in (and out )
October 19th, 2010 at 10:58 am
@fixie guy:
I recommend Scullboy's salty meatballs
October 19th, 2010 at 10:43 am
@fixie guy:
And Watt a tip it is. Once you go black (bear), you never go back (there).
October 19th, 2010 at 10:32 am
Master-Bear-Tor Says: It’s too high end.
Lol! "Try the veal and don't forget to tip your server."
October 19th, 2010 at 10:23 am
@NO – LYMPICS:
I don't want that guy living next to me.
October 19th, 2010 at 10:16 am
@NO – LYMPICS:
If Ian can get us a three for one deal, we are in.
October 19th, 2010 at 10:11 am
Dear Ian Watt:
I have a client for you;
His name is Master Bear Tor, which is Asian for Masturbator
October 19th, 2010 at 10:05 am
@NO – LYMPICS:
Yes, if he can get me 40% off at OV.
October 19th, 2010 at 9:57 am
Yes Burnaby and New West favor unions more but Vancouver is still a union town IMO. Vancouver votes to the left of center at most levels. The only reason the NPA got in last time was Vision and Cope split the left vote.
The poor success rate of union backed politicians is based on their anti business policies. Business' provide jobs not unions and people figure that out once they lose their jobs after voting in the union backed politician.
Based on the recent low polling for the Provincial Liberals, it looks like the NDP will get another crack at things. Then people will realize having a job and paying the HST is better than not having a job and still paying the HST or some other tax.
October 19th, 2010 at 9:57 am
Good news,Van RE will be up at least 10% annually year after year;Van bears will swallow another humiliation yr after yr.
October 19th, 2010 at 9:54 am
Re OV:
So Ian Twitt is saying they are 20 % overpriced,but to sell them they should get a 40 % haircut ?
Would you want this guy drawing up your contract with his poor editing and shitty grammar ?
October 19th, 2010 at 9:53 am
@NO – LYMPICS:
Ian is dead on correct. The public already knows about the development. The price and product are out of alignment with demand. It's too high end. More marketing and free Canucks tickets won't sell units. It's all about the price and the sooner the City understands this, the quicker they will sell.
October 19th, 2010 at 9:47 am
@Basi – Virk:
The Dutch don't have mountains to deal with.
October 19th, 2010 at 9:41 am
Ian Twiit's quote:
Ian Watt: Hi, Good afternoon! It's Ian Watt in Downtown Vancouver. Obviously Millennium Water is back in the news again. This fail project from the city has a caught the attention of everyone again because they're going to re-market the properties and sell them off. It seems is though that there's about 70% still remaining from their launch before the Olympics. Obviously the Olympics athletes stayed there during the Olympics and now they're trying to sell them again. The problem is they don't need to redo their marketing. They need to change the pricing that's everything this and product up and coming neighborhood looks great. However, they're 20% more than what you've find it a comparable unit in Yaletown. But they should be 20% last. So I'm gonna save the city a whole lot of money and come up with a new marketing project and yet one big banner put it across the all glass windows and put 40% off or existing prices. Only when they're gonna sell it. Decent product, decent location, a complete re-puff when it comes to pricing. It has to be adjusted 40%. That's the only way the cities can get out of this problem it's not the marketing. My name is Ian Watt and if you have any questions. You can always email me at ianwatt@ianwatt.ca. Thank you very much and have a great day!
======
What a moron
October 19th, 2010 at 9:40 am
@NO – LYMPICS:
The Olympic Village.
October 19th, 2010 at 9:37 am
You only allow companies with union contracts in place past the duration of the city garbage contract to bid. That way there is zero chance of a strike. It is done that way in many Ontario jurisdictions.
October 19th, 2010 at 9:36 am
In todays lesson to get our realtor's license, we were told they are not making any more land?
Is this true?
What about the Dutch people?
October 19th, 2010 at 9:35 am
59 Best place on meth Says:
October 19th, 2010 at 4:22 pm
All hail Ian Watt, the new Condo King!
*snort*
=============================
Who killed Bob ?
October 19th, 2010 at 9:17 am
@Anonymous:
"Looks like someone has a decent plan for the OV: http://www.ianwatt.ca/Blog.php/2912"
Good grief, I hope that transcription beneath the video was machine-generated. It barely makes sense.
October 19th, 2010 at 9:02 am
@if this is wrong, i dont ever want to be right:
"Referencing a statistics and probability theory, that, lets be honest, you don’t really understand?"
I seem to have a better understanding than you. Is that why you're so upset? But if you want to get technical….
The average of a sample set X1, X2, X3, … Xn is (X1 + X2 + X3 +… + Xn)/n
What you're implying is that for any subset Y1..Ym of X, ( Y1 + .. + Ym ) / m = (X1 + X2 + X3 +… + Xn) / n, which is easily falsifiable.
Better?
October 19th, 2010 at 8:43 am
@if this is wrong, i dont ever want to be right:
"So in your world, where Canadians have the highest debt to income ratios in their recorded history, lowest interest rates on record, and where the overwhelming majority of the wealthy use leverage (financing) to amplify their gains, you think there exists an enclave of all cash buyers, and that poster just happens to live in it?"
The poster doesn't even life in Canada. Try and get your facts right before puffing your chest up and hurling ill-thought insults.
October 19th, 2010 at 8:22 am
All hail Ian Watt, the new Condo King!
*snort*
October 19th, 2010 at 7:59 am
Looks like someone has a decent plan for the OV: http://www.ianwatt.ca/Blog.php/2912
October 19th, 2010 at 7:49 am
@anonymous
"It depends on his neighborhood. Yes a random sample of people would show an 89% ratio, but the people he lives nearby isn’t anywhere close to being a random sample."
It doesn't depend on his neighborhood, unless you are jerking yourself off with some academic thought exercise.
So in your world, where Canadians have the highest debt to income ratios in their recorded history, lowest interest rates on record, and where the overwhelming majority of the wealthy use leverage (financing) to amplify their gains, you think there exists an enclave of all cash buyers, and that poster just happens to live in it? That is your mealy mouth contention, jackwagon? That is what you are seriously trying to tell us, by referencing a statistics and probability theory, that, lets be honest, you don't really understand?
Maybe if we had all taken our collective heads out of our collective asses, we wouldnt be in this housing bubble that 70% of us (70% homeownership in Canada) are pretending doesn't exist.
There is a reason nobody likes you. BECAUSE YOU ARE THAT GUY.
October 19th, 2010 at 7:46 am
51 patriotz :
Agreed, but almost all civic gov'ts were pussy-whipped into buying peace during the Olympics. By UNION town, I refer to their aversion to contract out certain services that other local gov'ts have.
The civic elections are in NOV. 2011. Like a death grip, Vision will likley do a lot of pay back before then and make sure their supporters are well taken care of.
October 19th, 2010 at 7:40 am
52 dumpbunny
Always roo for one more..
How's law school studies going ?
Wanna buy a railroad?
October 19th, 2010 at 7:40 am
@FlipFlop:
@Devore:
Residential garbage pickup in Vancouver is a user pay service. It does not come out of property taxes. The annual fee varies depending on the size of the bin, with the largest bins costing over twice as much as the smallest.
The COV portion of water and sewer is also user pay. Commercial properties, apartment buildings and large residential lots are metered. Other residential properties pay flat rates depending on the number of units (vacant lot, house with suite and/or laneway house, duplex).
October 19th, 2010 at 7:18 am
wow
dumpbunny
great argument there
way to go
October 19th, 2010 at 7:16 am
One things for sure is this blog is filled with social rejects. Do you really want to be part of that ideology?
October 19th, 2010 at 6:48 am
@NO – LYMPICS:
All of the current COV union contracts were negotiated by the NPA-controlled council in 2007 and expire in 2011 (no mystery why that end date).
I'll make a prediction right now that they will get smaller raises from the current council which will still be around to negotiate the new contracts starting in 2011.
http://vancouver.ca/humanresources/collectiveagre…
I would hardly call CoV a union town given the success rate of union-backed politicians at the municipal, provincial, or federal level. Burnaby or New West, yes.