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Friday Free-for-all!

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It’s Friday! Let’s do our end o’ the week news roundup!

–Canadian property prices expected to fall in 2011
–CREA predicts BC home prices will drop
–Most BC housing starts are in Vancouver
–Olympic Village sales could get halted until February
–Walls falling harder than condo prices
–Have the Vancouver New York lifestyle in Nanaimo
–Want a zero down mortgage?
–Flaherty no fan of ‘too-big-to-fail’ label
–Homes under $100k
–Rate of US price declines parallels great depression
–Ben Bernanke will fix things
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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whyrent?

@chilled:

Yes I've been to Trail. That's why I said "theoretically" the rent would cover the mortgage-if you could find decent tenants, that is! Ones who actually pay the rent and won't destroy the place.

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Simpatico

@realpaul: Just got back from a lovely vacation in Puerto Vallarta. Met lots of other nice Canadians, Americans and Mexicans. You sound like Chicken Little — maybe you ought to get out more.

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Craig

@: #108 GSP

Good video. Thanks for the link.

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Ulsterman

This is the stunning sentence from the Ireland article posted here earlier: "Put at its starkest, for the next six to seven years, every cent of income tax paid by Irish citizens will go to cover the banks' losses."

Wow.

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oneangryslav2

Interesting stuff, this IP address business. Where are the gold and silver bugs lately? Of course, this could just be a short-term correction and they'll be back with a vengeance once things have turned around.

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chilled

@whyrent?:

Never been to Trail, have we? "property vacant and rent will cover the mortgage" about covers the problem better than I can explain.

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jesse

@McLovin: "Do you really want to vote for the NDP?"

It seems disenfranchisement is as ingrained as the desire to own property 🙂

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McLovin

Nobody wants to captain the RMS Titanic.

Do you really want to vote for the NDP?

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fixie guy

@ 165 patriotz Says: "Those numbers are out of whack with the data I’ve seen from Sauder or other sources.."

The variances between indexes and other sources would make for an interesting topic. I based those numbers on the Teranet HPI:

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/

Do you have alternate sources for Sauder data? The page I've always used provides nothing more recent than 2009 Q1, for me yet another indicator of that school's objectivity and detachment from their source of funding.

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off-the-radar

@paul: good article, great context

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jesse

Watts: Running for Liberal leader too much of a "stretch"

Nobody wants to captain the RMS Titanic.

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jesse

@Dan in Calgary: "is the “wish to own” a freely-made and rational wish? I think not." Agree mostly however comparing Canada to countries with high rental populations like Germany shows a different "culture" of renting. Long-term tenancy is normal and renters demand such. Until recently, though I don't know about the past few years, the tenure for landlords is long, meaning there is not much danger of long-term tenants being evicted. In Canada? In the larger cities, except for some specific properties, for the most part renting is a shorter term prospect in many areas. Turnover of properties is higher and with higher turnover comes lower desire to rent for those who want stable accommodations. Not saying that there aren't myths of fiction surrounding home ownership but there is a large component of a population's desire to own that's wrought… Read more »

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Junius

#168 Painted Turtle,

Of course False Creek is going to fall. Another paper wealth pumper who is counting his gains before he sells. Probably just took some more money from his HELOC to buy something he doesn't need.

So what? Another day in delusionville. Business as usual……..for another day before the fall.

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whyrent?

Hm. Maybe the only place in BC where it is (theoretically at least) possible to buy an investment property and come out cash positive.

Trail, BC

MLS K195811

Triplex (3 suites I presume?)

$99,500

Many more with similar asking prices. I guess rent would be about $600/month for a house/suite? These prices seem to have dropped, I looked last year and there was nothing for sale in Trail for less than $125k. Still a lot more than the $25k-50k houses I saw for sale there in 2005 though!

(of course I'm not serious. Just sayin')

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painted turtle

Saturday night conversation…

This guy bought a house in November 2009 (False Creek) and was bragging about a 14% increase in 12 month, 120 000$ appreciation, blablabla…

I was frowning, trying to remember all the charts I have seen in the past 12 months…

Is False Creek an epiphenomenon or was he completely delusional?

Does anybody know the stats for False Creek? Thanks.

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realpaul

#159 DIC…there is one absolute benefit to ownership…I mean ownership as in clear title. In many times over a persons lifetime you can be subjected to many kinds of financial stress…losing a job…business etc. A mortgage or a rental payment can be a huge problem hanging over your head. If you own the roof over your head ( and you haven't been stupid enough to condo with massive extra strat pmts) then you have a lot of breathing room when the bad time hits if you have no rent or mortgage to pay….at times like this a clear title home can be like a $50,000 a year extra line of revenue. Clear title ownership is nirvana in that case. You think a lot clearer and make better decisions when you don't have a gun to your head.

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realpaul

Food Banks now have 'snack attack' program for hungry suburban kids who are now showing up in greater numbers without breakfast or lunches. Looks like the myth of 'home ownership' as being the end all be all of financial well being is coming apart eh? The fuck ups that put the mortgage payment and the car lease ahead of feeding the children should be whipped with chains. Langley , Cloverdale , Delta etc Food Banks are struggling to renew stocks of specialized food stuffs that are divied out at school when a child complains of hunger….the ones that swallow their pride and last vestige of self esteem that is. East side schools in Vanc already have food programs for the kids whose parents live in inflated real estate and lord along the 'Drive' on the weekends in new cars and… Read more »

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patriotz

@fixie guy:

Halifax (185%) and Montreal (230%) have seen massive real value increases in ~10 years.

Those numbers are out of whack with the data I've seen from Sauder or other sources. Looks more like 50-80% real or so.

I agree that both cities look overpriced, but consider that prices are less than a third of those in Vancouver with somewhat lower rents and comparable incomes. I think the "soft landing" scenario is credible for these markets – look at 1989-2001 for Montreal, for example. And look at this chart:

http://www.chpc.biz/Major_Cities_Chart.htm

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Neil

Here is a chart worth a boo. Especially concerning when you consider how many second and third homes most Boomers have sitting vacant.
https://sites.google.com/site/canadianhousingdemo…

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Anonymous

Hey No- LYMPICS, Hey, I don't always agree nor disagree with things being posted on this blog, but nonetheless I still enjoy reading the comments of all sides of the real estate issue until I come up to your bigoted, homophobic, ignorant and asswipe comments such as the one below. You are a total fuck face asshole!!!!! I wish this blog would ban your IP forever. I mean what does your sick homophobia have to do with real estate anyways? What a douche. NO – LYMPICS Says: November 12th, 2010 at 12:12 pm # 26 YLTNboomerang " PS He forgot to mark his “out of the closet” fudgepacker awareness day. Rennie’s got to remember the bigger they are the harder they fall..and he is prime for a big fall. He got lucky at the right time, and mostly with the… Read more »

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YLTNboomerang

@realpaul:

Do you have the link for the "Cross-Currents"? The link you provided just went to the CBC page for the Mexican explosion.

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fixie guy

@ 158 patriotz

Halifax (185%) and Montreal (230%) have seen massive real value increases in ~10 years. A better division might be urban vs. rural, we're screwed either way.

The entire country is popping construction development blue pills. If I heard it correctly provincial officials were on the radio just today trumpeting BC's 'action plan' to spend $22B on transportation infrastructure. No mention of how we're paying for it.

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Keeping An Eye On Th

Life’s mysteries:

How do they get the caramel in the chocolate bar?

How do the POS like Rennie, and Bill Slut maintain credibility?

Why aren’t the super Rich Asians putting upward pressure on commercial RE?

Why are the millions of new arrivals not registering children in schools and prevent enrollment from shrinking?

If everyone wants to live here, how come the population of the entire province of BC is about the same as a large city in US or Europe?

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Dan in Calgary

@NO-LYMPICS, "Most people wish to own…one is master of one’s domain" … and … "a tide of landlords that may wish to cash in if the bubble bursts" 1. "Most people wish to own." Probably true, but why? What are the forces that induced them to think in this way? For example: (a) social forces (friends do it, parents' influence; but is it what they want)? (b) market forces (financial costs of renting vs owning — have they analyzed correctly)? (c) psychological forces (merciless manipulation by banks, realtors or other people of dishonourable vocation who want to make money by inducing people to buy a house)? In other words, is the "wish to own" a freely-made and rational wish? I think not. 2. "One is master of one's domain." This is a huge area for discussion, for one wonders which… Read more »

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patriotz

@rp: The bubble is national. Housing is 20% of GDP and 100% of the “recovery”. When it sinks the economy will suck everywhere without exception. I don't agree. The RE bust started in Alberta in 2007 and although prices have rebounded somewhat, they are still well below peak. That's enough to have taken the bubble factor out of the economy. Going forward it will be all about oil and gas as usual. Likewise Sask and Manitoba are not likely to see significant impact. No bubble in Quebec, and none on the East Coast except maybe St. John's. Nor in Ontario except Toronto and to some extent Ottawa. BC is going down the tubes without a doubt though, and Toronto will fall, the question being how much and how fast. A major bust in Toronto would have national effects simply due… Read more »

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