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Friday Free-for-all!

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It’s the end of the week and that means it’s time for another news roundup and economic open topic discussion thread!  Here are a few stories to kick off the weekend:

–Olympic Village will cost taxpayers millions monthly just in interest
–Rennie Urges Patience now that entire risk is transferred to city
–Bankruptcy may make a tough sell tougher
–Housing bubble a danger
–Canada Home Price should be ringing alarms
–Campbell cancels planned BC tax cut
–Quebec moves to tighten credit to debt burdened citzens
–Global concerns push Canadian mortgage rates higher
–Australian variable rates now over 7.6%
–

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Simpatico

@fixie guy: Fixie guy, thanks for response. Are you referring the first commentator, or the second (with additional comments from the 3rd)? I agree re: circular thinking. Though it was a fairly good exposition of the various points of view, accurate or not. I'm an American living in Vancouver, but left the US just prior to the housing meltdown. Saw the writing on the wall in 2006, sold the primary residence at the peak (not, unfortunately the lots or beach place)and have just about got all the retirement savings and investments transferred into CAD. The big blind spot I see in all the discussion is…what percentage of homeowners are at risk on the basis not only of buying too high, but borrowing against the home for all manner of things. We know Canadians are into debt up to their necks…how… Read more »

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patriotz

@stagnate:

you’ve gone on record saying the crash will be bigger than the 82 crash

I have never claimed that we will necessarily see a bigger % decline from peak, either real or nominal, than in the 80's. If you're claiming I have, let's see the "record" that you're talking about.

If you mean I have said that the macro impact will be a lot bigger, you bet it will.

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fixie guy

@ #226 Simpatico

Some questionable points in there:

– The rise of American foreclosures lagged the market peak by at least a year

– Much (most?) of Canadian worth is in their homes, so claiming Canadian housing can't collapse because of our worth is circular (see: 2006 Schiff interviews railing against 'false worth')

– American unemployment rates are a symptom of the collapse, not the initial cause. Consequence of basing an economy on real estate (hint hint BC.)

Pretty shoddy reasoning for any academic not named Tsur. The guy has serious problems with the whole 'time' concept.

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Anonymous

"I will continue to be right until I am proven wrong."

and for you vci newbies out there that is davespeak for "never".

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Simpatico

To the question, are we in a bubble? and what impact on the market, see
http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/ post of 11/21/10. I found it a reasonable discussion of differing points of view, minus the embarrassingly adolescent behaviour and pejoratives being slung around here. (May this blog return soon to prior level of quality discussion.)

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I detect a realtor t

Dave, I'm not NO-lympics.

And no I am not Romeo Jordan, you have made a complete fool of yourself,everybody knows who you are.

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NO-LYMPICS

216 Dave Says:

November 21st, 2010 at 7:21 pm

@I detect a realtor troll with too much idle time:

NO-LYMPICS, I have yet to inherit a penny. Every penny is my pocket was self earned. I have made it on my own. True story. Book to come.

======

A little paranoid Dave…now you are imagining connections versus just making them up ?

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NO-LYMPICS

223 Dave Says:

November 21st, 2010 at 8:22 pm

@Best place on meth:

Sounds like you answered your own question. I will continue to be right until I am proven wrong.

======================

ROTFLMao

You are too much Dave …

Is that a threat ?

Are the 4 Horsemen on their way?

Can Michael Vick sit your dog ?

How much of your inheritance is bet on games with Luongo in net?

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Dave

@Best place on meth:

Sounds like you answered your own question. I will continue to be right until I am proven wrong.

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realpaul

What some posters want it seems, is to feminize the debate on real estate economics to the point of it being a general whine-fest where staggeringly inane opinions gleaned from the MSM mix with the whining weepy pity seeking bleatings of a wanna be short order fry cook who by his own admissions 'couldn't make it in this town' and fled but still wants to somehow think hes a part of a picture he failed in…. to perhaps deny his own failure and then blend into a homogenous sloppy circle jerk. The bleating , the crying and the pity party self loathings of the Daves, the Dans and pseudonyms they post under should hasten themselves to the closet…perhaps to listen to how psychotic and self possessed they have begun sounding. This feminized politically correct circle jerk where agreement has to… Read more »

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Best place on meth

@Dave:

How long does your theory of a "flat market" need to be waited out before you admit you're wrong?

Because as soon as it breaks one way or the other, you're done.

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Aaron

Dave is a turd

Please don't degrade turds.

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Dave

@Dave is a turd:

Like the time you read a book?

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stagnate

patriotz says: I’ll admit I’ve been wrong when and if rents and incomes rise to bring price/rent and price/income back to normal values without a drop in nominal prices.

you've gone on record saying the crash will be bigger than the 82 crash, and you've also gone on record saying the olympic village fiasco is proof that the crash is underway. so if the crash is on now then prices aren't going to stagnate over the winter, what's your call for nominal prices six months from now?

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Dave is a turd

Yes, I agree with some of the other posters.

Dave's hair splitting, play on words, syllogism type of verbal contortion sure seems familiar.

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Dave

@I detect a realtor troll with too much idle time:

NO-LYMPICS, I have yet to inherit a penny. Every penny is my pocket was self earned. I have made it on my own. True story. Book to come.

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Dave

@Best place on meth:

Context. Have a look at the original post made by Arit. He is honest about his observations of an active market, but still holds on to the crash theory. I am seriously asking the question or how long this theory needs to be waited out. Maybe his theory is incorrect. It's a valid question to ask. Nothing smug about it.

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Seka

"Good thing I don’t think the asshole would have ever made it on his own."

I don’t know about that, he is quite a prolific political science writer.

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Dave

@oneangryslav2:

I am not attaching values or judgement to this. I am referring to mediocrity in strictly a finance sense. Avoiding risk means you avoid upside. That's all. I am not attacking your self worth at all.

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I detect a realtor t

Dave sure has a lot of time on his hands. Probably because he inherited the family business, and doesn’t have to earn a living.

Good thing I don’t think the asshole would have ever made it on his own.

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Best place on meth

@Dave:

Oh, ok Dave.

From now on I'll respond to everything you say with "maybe your theory is incorrect, at what point will you admit you're wrong?

Then we'll see if you think that's douchy or not.

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oneangryslav2

@Dave:

Well, not buying could beget mediocrity.

Ahh…therein the mindset of the bull. Dave, I currently rent and if prices don't decrease, I'll never (even want to) buy in Vancouver. I fail to see how that makes me mediocre. You see, it's because my self-worth is not tied to whether I am currently paying off a home mortgage or not.

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Dave

@Best place on meth:

What's smug about asking a question? If you want smug, I could have easily obliged. Let's face it, I have been far from smug on this site.

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Dave

@patriotz:

Fair enough and I could agree to that. I think the invested difference from rent will be more or less offset by equity building under the ownership scenario. So, I think using nominal prices is reasonable for this exercise.

Since you bring up 2005, I am guessing that is when you believed we entered this 'bubble'. I have a hard time seeing prices drop below Fall 2006 levels. That's my 'nuclear scenario'.

The last problem I have with your theories is that there is no time attached to them. It's hard for me to ever say 'na na na na, I was right'. But. if prices drop below the 2009 low, you can say it to me.

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Dave

@fixie guy:

Sure, it depends on lots of variables. I am trying to keep it simple by sticking with nominal values because that is what we all follow on a day to day and year to year basis.

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