Carney on Interest Rates – Let it be.

Citing ‘threats to global rebound’ the Bank of Canada has announced that they will leave the benchmark interest rate at 1%.

In explaining its decision to stand pat, which was expected by investors and economists, the central bank said private demand in the United States is “picking up slowly,” growth in emerging markets has started to cool to a more sustainable pace, and sovereign debt problems in several European countries “could trigger renewed strains” in global markets.

While the central bank anticipated a slow and grinding U.S. rebound, and though growth in developing nations such as China remains “robust,” policy makers noted that Canadian exports, which are needed to drive the recovery as debt-burdened consumers pull back and government stimulus spending runs out, have been disappointing in recent months.

Indeed, third-quarter growth data released last week indicated that the sales abroad that will be so crucial in the months ahead remain a weak spot, holding the economy to its worst performance in a year.

Read the full article in the Globe and Mail. Will you buy now with rock bottom interest rates or wait for those global economic risks that inspire them to have an effect on local house prices? The ‘how much a month’ crowd can get some pretty decent deals as long as they don’t look at the big number, but that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for future interest rate increases or negative equity refinancing.

66 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
fixie guy
fixie guy
9 years ago

63 scullboy Says: "Bear in mind I didn’t say ALL American cities are awesome, and I’d argue Detriot *was* awesome at one time."

It was, and once phenomenally affluent. In their prime some of the most dire Detroit crack houses would be national heritage structures in Point Grey. It too is a valuable lesson in civics for anyone who wants to look.

ifyoudontknow,nowyou
ifyoudontknow,nowyou
9 years ago

@scullboy "What’s sad is that this is a woman who obviously has a good grasp on finances. You have to give her credit, it looks like she makes informed judgement in her other investments.' I am going to go ahead and call shenanigans. This girl is a financial disaster waiting to happen. (well, over leveraging on a mortgage she cannot afford has set that disaster ball in motion) Vancouver has some of the most financially illiterate people I have ever met, and the worst are the ones who think they know more than they do. The hubris of writing a blog and offering almost next to no information about the capital markets that you could not find in a sales brochure or a myriad of other amateur sites is typical of our generation. This person clearly has no idea what… Read more »

ulsterman
9 years ago

Wow, i just read one of RealPaul's posts over on Greater Fool. Boy has he toned down the frothing and raving! Nicest man i ever met now.

scullboy
9 years ago

@boombust and Patriotz: Bear in mind I didn't say ALL American cities are awesome, and I'd argue Detriot *was* awesome at one time. I don't bear Y&T any ill will but I don't see how getting a giant mortgage is being "thrifty" to be frank. I learned a lot of lessons the hard way, and the hardest lesson I learned was that we're all a death, divorce, or disease away from disaster. The problem with basing a mortgage on 2 incomes rather then one is that the couple is actually taking on TWICE as much risk, as BOTH people (rather then one or the other) must stay employed to keep paying the bills. If either member of the couple can not make the payments then the couple is in financial trouble. I don't know that much and frankly I'm not… Read more »

Drachen
Drachen
9 years ago

@McLovin:

As the saying goes, "There's a sucker born every minute, and most of them will probably move to Vancouver and buy real estate."

ReadyToPop
ReadyToPop
9 years ago

"(Cooling prices) will require an increase in real interest rates….

China, HK should rein in property prices: IMF

I wonder if the IMF should get a memo from struggling families in Vancouver and Toronto?

Serf
Serf
9 years ago

@TakeFive

They are probably doing pretty good, given their age and focus on savings.

However, if they make a combined $120K as assumed, why take on a mortgage that's 5X income.

They are probably good savers, better off waiting rather than overpaying as it has a huge impact:

1) Lower monthly payments, leads to

2) More monthly savings left to pay down mortgage, leads to

3) Faster payment of the mortgage

Unfortunately, higher payments lead to the reverse…

Take Five
Take Five
9 years ago

Serf,

They do not make 250k a year.

Given her age and employment and pension contribution, she and her boyfriend each make around 60k at most. Combined 120 – as she posted previously that her boyfriend makes the same as her.

120k income and 600k debt is not bad for Vancouver, as Vancouverites have paid a premium for 25 years, with five times income.

She is actually doing pretty good. Just bought at the wrong time.

McLovin
McLovin
9 years ago

I was looking at rentals on Cl and came across this: http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2020235… $5,800 for a 5 br 4000 sq/ft on Angus Dr. (The good area the Chinese are buying LOL) There is no picture but we can assume it isn't a tear down and at that size in that area I would imagine it would be $2.5 mil -$3.0 mil give or take. This shows the absolute absurdity of the price to rent ratio in Vancouver. Seriously, why would someone buy when they can rent for 30% of the cost? Mortgage on 2.75 mil 5 yr. 3.65% = $14K Taxes (no idea) but assuming $1K per month Upkeep 2K per month (this is low but lets assume it doesn't need a new roof or driveway) = approx. $17K per month Or rent it for $5.8K per month and walk away… Read more »

Serf
Serf
9 years ago

Young&Thrifty is probably more responsible than 99% of the people her age. However, taking on $600K of mortgage debt sounds a bit crazy, considering her down payment was in the range of $200K.

Unless they make a combined $250K a year I think it's stupid.

And if they did make that much, why not save 10K a month for another year and have a bigger down payment.

But as long as they can stomach the risk (and stomach a lot of Kraft Dinner and instant noodles as that's all they'll be eating for a while)…it's ok

Carioca Canuck
Carioca Canuck
9 years ago

Citing threats to the "global rebound"……???

Errrrrr…….just exactly what "global rebound" are they talking about anyways ? Can some one tell me where it is ?

All I see everywhere I look is the MSM printing blatant lies whilst governments panic and print as much funny money as they can, in an effort to keep their stock markets, bond markets and currencies propped up in the vain hope that consumers will begin to spend wildly again. Well, as many of these said consumers are already mired in collosal mortgage debt, line of credit debt, car loan debt, credit card debt and student loan debt I don't see this "global rebound" happening anytime soon, since most folks are worried about losing their jobs if they haven't already done so.

VerbalDiarrhea
VerbalDiarrhea
9 years ago

Paul,

What do you make of things?

Low rates keepin' em coming?

I'm surprised, but everwhere I look I see pressure on prices.

Hope Westside starts to show some cracks. Perhaps China will need a period of meltdown/retrenchment first, time will tell.

I suspect big price drops will not happen until BoC raises rates OR the bond market forces the banks to increase prime (could happen).

VD

VHB
VHB
9 years ago

December Projections for month totals

Days elapsed so far 5

Days remaining 16

Average Sales this month 107

Average Listings this month 125

Projected sell/list 85.6%

SALES

Projected month end total 2239 +/- 467

95% Conf Interval lower bound 1772

95% Conf Interval upper bound 2705

NEW LISTINGS

Projected month end total 2617 +/- 424

95% Conf Interval lower bound 2193

95% Conf Interval upper bound 3041

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Inventory as of November 30th 12384

MoI at this sales pace 5.53

Note: This is a simple linear projection of month end totals.

This provides the answer to the question

"What will month end totals be, if things continue

on the same pace we've seen so far this month?"

paulb.
paulb.
9 years ago

New Listings 136

Price Changes 37

Sold Listings 124

Take Five
Take Five
9 years ago

I think @youngandthrifty sounds more responsible than 90% of current first time home buyers.

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Tend to agree. If you can get gen Y to move beyond their current focus on instant gratification, and get them to understand the value of a dollar, this country might weather future economic storms a little better.

Don't agree with her decisions, but at least she is trying to educate others.

unfapce
unfapce
9 years ago

I think @youngandthrifty sounds more responsible than 90% of current first time home buyers. Still not a decision I would have made, but whatever, thanks for sharing, it is always interesting to see case studies of how others manage their money.

patriotz
9 years ago

@scullboy:

People may like to rip on Americans and God knows their country has flaws but damn, they do build incredible cities.

I think you mean "did".

For that matter, are there any new cities/suburbs being built anywhere in the world today that aren't crap (be they cheap or expensive)?

kansai92
kansai92
9 years ago

Big woop, everyone and their dog has a blog.

Tweet any?

Boombust
Boombust
9 years ago

"…but damn, they do build incredible cities…" -Scullboy

Been to Detroit or Baltimore lately? I have. I ain't pretty.

scullboy
9 years ago

Greetings from San Francisco! I'm posting this while relaxing in a beanbag chair in the middle of the Moscone Convention Center. I'm at Dreamforce, the Salesforce.com convention. It's *amazing*. I'll get to hear Clinton speak in a couple of hours, then it's off to a Stevie Wonder concert and a gala DJ'ed by Wil.I.am. San Francisco is an incredible city. It's like nothing I've ever seen. The architecture is so beautiful here, and the restaurants are to die for. Best of all, vendors have been wining and dining me for 3 days straight. Grampy may have enjoyed calling me a Newfie fry cook but in reality I'm doing pretty well for myself. 🙂 Whenever I travel I compare the place I am to the places I've been. I have to tell you, Vancouver's got NOTHING on San Francisco! It just… Read more »

Joshua
Joshua
9 years ago

@youngandthrifty: you post your net worth on a blog on the internet, which is all fine and dandy – power to you. But then you say its none of our business? Too bad lady – can't have it both ways. You made it our business.

loveitorleaveit
loveitorleaveit
9 years ago

edit: I meant NEGATIVE 30 thousand. Sorry, everyone.

loveitorleaveit
loveitorleaveit
9 years ago

@young and thrifty "I know that there is “freedom of speech” but whoever posed as “me” youngandthrifty should not be slandering me on this website. I guess some of you guys on this website have nothing better to do than to criticize others on the internet…. For your information, I did not put off my housing search, I was searching all along. I did get slammed by bears, mainly bears from your website. Anyways, it’s really none of your business whether I do a cohabitation agreement or not, we have the same amount of liquid assets, and make the same amount of money, and we have agreed that we split the house 50/50." I think the bad part is when your house drops in value from 800k to 500k. I predict your net worth at this time in 2012 will… Read more »

fixie guy
fixie guy
9 years ago

@ 17 low interest rates forever Says: "and please..signs popping up? what delusional bear world do you live in – record low inventory and strong sales for nov and mostly likely dec (yes, yes, the verdict is still out)"

No, really. In the last couple weeks it's looking like 2008 along some areas either side of Oak south. 100% small sample anecdotal for sure but that's what I'm seeing out there and it surprised the hell out of me.

Strong sales? Sure, 'only' 18% down for Nov YOY.

YLTNboomerang
9 years ago

@Young and Thrifty:

Wow, I can't believe people actually read "Y&T's" blog, pure horse manure and arrogance.