Farewell 2010 Free-for-all!
Well it’s not only the end of the week, it’s the end of the year. Any major changes in the plan for 2011? Here’s our regular open topic economic discussion thread and news round up:
-Three towers proposed by Olympic Village
-Builders seek input on impact of ‘leaky condo’ court ruling
-Canada’s housing punch bowl still serving
-Taxman targets workers in 2011
-Canadian housing not in bubble, just ‘overpriced’
-Washington Times 2005: No Bubble Trouble
-Australia market booms, Canada simmers
-Melbourne luxury prices down more than 10%
-Irelands prices plunge further
-Buy US real estate, but don’t get ripped off
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent New Year!
January 3rd, 2011 at 11:43 am
@patriotz:
Yes bubble burst part #2 is around the corner, even with free financing.
January 3rd, 2011 at 11:13 am
@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps quotes:
And of course they talk about everything except the real reason:
RE prices in almost all US markets are still well above historical norms.
<a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/case-shiller-home-prices-weaken-further.html” target=”_blank”>http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/case-shiller-home-prices-weaken-further.html
January 3rd, 2011 at 11:01 am
@domus:
That chart says that BC gets over 50% of investor immigrants, not that over 50% of immigrants to BC are investors.
Right in the paragraph above, it says (direct quote):
Investor immigrants and their dependents have in fact always ranked a poor third behind skilled workers and family class.
January 3rd, 2011 at 9:12 am
I just noticed the typo in my previous post. It was meant to be 'large chunk'. Definitely no racist intent on my side, and I am sorry anyway if it was interpreted that way. I should really pay more attention when I type!
The substance of the post, however, remains unchanged. Roughly 20,000 new immigrants to BC every year fall under the 'investor' category. That sounds like a lot of people to me, but maybe someone can help me put that figure into context.
For example, does anybody know whether this includes their families as well, or whether those would be classified under the 'family' category?
January 3rd, 2011 at 8:26 am
@domus:
"Scroll to the end of page 2: did you know that over 50% of new immigrants to BC came under the ‘investor’ category?"
Most of these super rich tycoons end up buying "everything under a dollar stores" and the super rich tycoons buy bottle recycling depots They create a lot of employment, for their grandmas, grandpas, their university student children, oh yes enough tax write offs so no taxes are paid, but everyone who works at these green enterprises gets a GST rebate, medical, student loans, etc.
Well at least we get resourceful investor types who are environmentally friendly, unlike some of not so smart countries who get investment types who might create pollution in the manufacturing processes.
January 3rd, 2011 at 8:23 am
large chunk = lrge chink? no, not racist, typo only. right domus? are you still waiting for the 80% off with all the stats and graphs btw?
January 3rd, 2011 at 8:01 am
chink? chink?
racist?
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:28 am
I was half expecting this, but it was still shocking to see it in print.
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/pop/pop103h.pdf
Scroll to the end of page 2: did you know that over 50% of new immigrants to BC came under the 'investor' category?
And this is what the GoC has to say about the investment category of immigration:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/business/i…
So my question for you is: could I set up a front company which, through the Province, 'invests' into an apartment or two ($800k)? Does it happen?
The numbers are frankly staggering and the government (especially the Province) must have some good reason to support such a racket. Could it simply be that they reckon this will support the RE circus and by reflex the whole economy? Or do you think there are other motives?
This is such a lrge chink of the total immigration that i wonder when it will become a major talking point for politicians.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:26 am
@Anonymous: "what are the chances that will set off a stampede to buy before april?"
Who cares? If they buy sooner they won't be around to buy after April.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:15 am
if the rules change in feb and is effective in april, what are the chances that will set off a stampede to buy before april?
January 3rd, 2011 at 4:53 am
@vreaa:
How about:
The weather has been too (cold/rainy/hot/sunny/etc. take you pick) and potential buyers weren't interested in buying houses
Flights from Asia are up xx% over last year and that can only mean more buyers are coming, just be patient
Interest rates will be rising soon, that will send a flood of buyers in to take advantage while they still can
New mortgage rules will make it harder to buy a home so buyers better get in now before they are priced out forever
And my personal favorite,
There's never been a better time to buy
January 3rd, 2011 at 3:46 am
@Anonymous: I'm doing fine, thanks for asking.
January 3rd, 2011 at 3:45 am
they can hope for with what they have. how about you?
January 3rd, 2011 at 3:37 am
"We aren’t selling yet but when I think we can clear $3.5M (after fees) we likely will. 10% to go …"
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1HK
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Pretty classic. Prices treble or more over ten years, and the players are still holding out for the last 10% of gains.
How many other (thus far invisible) sellers are in this situation?
Many are sitting on large, life-changing paper gains and feeling sure that they'll be able to realize them.
What will their response be when prices instead stagnate, or begin to drop?
January 3rd, 2011 at 3:34 am
New Bear Prediction for 2011!
This is the year my friends!
This is when the crash will happen!
Forget what we said for the past couple of years!
Forget that 2010 was to be the year of the crash!
So what if we have been wrong for so long it hurts.
All of our arm chair analyses should have paid off by now. Our decisions to sell at the "peak" in 2008 and rent was clearly the right choice as prices plummeted right?
And good thing that the market collapsed after the Olympics; after the ever so slowly inching interest rates; after the new April mortgage rules; after the surge in inventory…
Here is to a successful string of predictions and constantly revised predictions and explanations of why the RE market is still hot, and why the market will collapse!
Oh wait, haven't we been saying this for four year now…I mean now five years?
Oh well, we will surely get it right one of these years.
Here is to the crash of 2020!! It is just around the corner!
Lol, silly little bears…