Farewell 2010 Free-for-all!

Well it’s not only the end of the week, it’s the end of the year.  Any major changes in the plan for 2011?  Here’s our regular open topic economic discussion thread and news round up:

Three towers proposed by Olympic Village
Builders seek input on impact of ‘leaky condo’ court ruling
Canada’s housing punch bowl still serving
Taxman targets workers in 2011
Canadian housing not in bubble, just ‘overpriced’
Washington Times 2005: No Bubble Trouble
Australia market booms, Canada simmers
Melbourne luxury prices down more than 10%
Irelands prices plunge further
Buy US real estate, but don’t get ripped off

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent New Year!

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Keeping An Eye On Th
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Keeping An Eye On Th

@patriotz:

Yes bubble burst part #2 is around the corner, even with free financing.

patriotz
Member

@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps quotes:

“(US) housing prices are sliding again, and there’s plenty of blame to go around. Factors include blah blah blah…"

And of course they talk about everything except the real reason:

RE prices in almost all US markets are still well above historical norms.

<a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/case-shiller-home-prices-weaken-further.html” target=”_blank”>http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/case-shiller-home-prices-weaken-further.html

patriotz
Member

@domus: Scroll to the end of page 2: did you know that over 50% of new immigrants to BC came under the ‘investor’ category? That chart says that BC gets over 50% of investor immigrants, not that over 50% of immigrants to BC are investors. Right in the paragraph above, it says (direct quote): Immigrants categorized in the Skilled Worker class accounted for the largest share of landings in B.C. during the third quarter of 2010, closely followed by the Family class. During the third quarter, 4,592 immigrants landed in the province as Skilled Work class immigrants. Compared with landings in the third quarter of 2009, the number of immigrants in the Skilled Worker class was significantly higher (+23.4%). However, B.C. received fewer Family class immigrants (-17.8%) compared to last year. Investor immigrants and their dependents have in fact always… Read more »

domus
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domus

I just noticed the typo in my previous post. It was meant to be 'large chunk'. Definitely no racist intent on my side, and I am sorry anyway if it was interpreted that way. I should really pay more attention when I type!

The substance of the post, however, remains unchanged. Roughly 20,000 new immigrants to BC every year fall under the 'investor' category. That sounds like a lot of people to me, but maybe someone can help me put that figure into context.

For example, does anybody know whether this includes their families as well, or whether those would be classified under the 'family' category?

Keeping An Eye On Th
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Keeping An Eye On Th

@domus:

"Scroll to the end of page 2: did you know that over 50% of new immigrants to BC came under the ‘investor’ category?"

Most of these super rich tycoons end up buying "everything under a dollar stores" and the super rich tycoons buy bottle recycling depots They create a lot of employment, for their grandmas, grandpas, their university student children, oh yes enough tax write offs so no taxes are paid, but everyone who works at these green enterprises gets a GST rebate, medical, student loans, etc.

Well at least we get resourceful investor types who are environmentally friendly, unlike some of not so smart countries who get investment types who might create pollution in the manufacturing processes.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

large chunk = lrge chink? no, not racist, typo only. right domus? are you still waiting for the 80% off with all the stats and graphs btw?

logic
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logic

chink? chink?

racist?

domus
Guest
domus

I was half expecting this, but it was still shocking to see it in print. http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/pop/pop103h.pdf Scroll to the end of page 2: did you know that over 50% of new immigrants to BC came under the 'investor' category? And this is what the GoC has to say about the investment category of immigration: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/business/i… So my question for you is: could I set up a front company which, through the Province, 'invests' into an apartment or two ($800k)? Does it happen? The numbers are frankly staggering and the government (especially the Province) must have some good reason to support such a racket. Could it simply be that they reckon this will support the RE circus and by reflex the whole economy? Or do you think there are other motives? This is such a lrge chink of the total immigration… Read more »

jesse
Member

@Anonymous: "what are the chances that will set off a stampede to buy before april?"

Who cares? If they buy sooner they won't be around to buy after April.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

if the rules change in feb and is effective in april, what are the chances that will set off a stampede to buy before april?

joycer
Member
joycer

@vreaa:

What will their response be when prices instead stagnate, or begin to drop?

How about:

The weather has been too (cold/rainy/hot/sunny/etc. take you pick) and potential buyers weren't interested in buying houses

Flights from Asia are up xx% over last year and that can only mean more buyers are coming, just be patient

Interest rates will be rising soon, that will send a flood of buyers in to take advantage while they still can

New mortgage rules will make it harder to buy a home so buyers better get in now before they are priced out forever

And my personal favorite,

There's never been a better time to buy

vreaa
Member

@Anonymous: I'm doing fine, thanks for asking.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

they can hope for with what they have. how about you?

vreaa
Member

"We aren’t selling yet but when I think we can clear $3.5M (after fees) we likely will. 10% to go …"

http://wp.me/pcq1o-1HK

Pretty classic. Prices treble or more over ten years, and the players are still holding out for the last 10% of gains.

How many other (thus far invisible) sellers are in this situation?

Many are sitting on large, life-changing paper gains and feeling sure that they'll be able to realize them.

What will their response be when prices instead stagnate, or begin to drop?

Original Bear
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Original Bear

New Bear Prediction for 2011! This is the year my friends! This is when the crash will happen! Forget what we said for the past couple of years! Forget that 2010 was to be the year of the crash! So what if we have been wrong for so long it hurts. All of our arm chair analyses should have paid off by now. Our decisions to sell at the "peak" in 2008 and rent was clearly the right choice as prices plummeted right? And good thing that the market collapsed after the Olympics; after the ever so slowly inching interest rates; after the new April mortgage rules; after the surge in inventory… Here is to a successful string of predictions and constantly revised predictions and explanations of why the RE market is still hot, and why the market will collapse!… Read more »

McLovin
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McLovin

Oh Supraboy,

JP Morgan is up 3% today. They must have heard you are short.

Stupid Child.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

Wow Supraboy big trader!

Who isn't making a ton a money in this market? BAC, I have been selling out of the money puts and buying calls on this name and making a ton. Just because one doesn't brag about his winnings doesn't mean he is making them. You are foul mouthed little child trading out of his mom's basement with his allowance. What is 15% of $100?

I still say that JP Morgan and I am smarter than you.

Go away and pump some more Vancouver RE Jackass!

jesse
Member

@penguin: "Is the writer suggesting the Canada gov’t spend more?" The writer is voicing opinions of some analysts who think the economy could grow faster if the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight lending rate, which it probably would in the short term. Canada has a problem where household debt is high. Replacing it with government debt means Canadian households must save in lieu. I think Carney realises that's not going to happen. As I've stated before here, the BoC wants to reduce household debt but simultaneously increase private investment. As it stands now that's an impossible task so he and the government have resorted to shouting dire warnings to reduce household debt even with low interest rates. Sure… I doubt stern warnings are going to work and we know tighter mortgage/HELOC lending criteria are in the works as the… Read more »

Anonymous
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Anonymous

entire city of van has less than 600 sfh listings. where is the "explore of listing" bear party?

Supraboy
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Supraboy

Where is this faggot McLovin today? Show your sorry ass. http://vancouvercondo.info/2010/12/wheres-your-mo… "McLovin Says: December 30th, 2010 at 6:01 pm "FYI, that SHORT position on silver is done by JP Morgan. They have to eventually cover. If Silver pushes anywhere near $35, there will be a massive short squeeze in the makings driving prices above $40." I love it Supraboy, you are smarter than JP Morgan! They didn’t get to be an investment house earning BILLIONS every year because they telegraph their positions so that a Vancouver Real Estate Bull like you can see it. Why don’t you keep doing what you are good at and that’s pumping Vancouver Real Estate?" Supraboy Says: December 30th, 2010 at 6:53 pm @McLovin: Silver is not the only investment out there. Having said that, it will continue to go higher. Diversify with agriculture and… Read more »

Keeping An Eye On Th
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Keeping An Eye On Th

"Housing prices are sliding again, and there's plenty of blame to go around. Factors include the sluggish recovery, ineffective private and public efforts to prevent foreclosures, suddenly risk-averse lenders and temporary tax credits that generated a short-lived and artificial rally in home sales."

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la

But of course it can't happen in Canada, we are different, maybe:

"Special investigation: How high-risk mortgages crept north"

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business

patriotz
Member

@chip:

I think it’s pretty obvious that Canada’s unique policy position of having no restrictions on foreign RE purchases is serving as a magnet for burgeoning new wealth out of China.

What's so unique about it? Apart from farmland in some Midwestern states, the world's biggest RE market, the US, has no restrictions on foreign ownership either. Nor does the UK and I'd bet nor does Ireland.

Anyway the whole "foreign ownership" issue is a red herring to distract people from the real causes of RE bubbles everywhere, namely speculation, loose lending, and government policies promoting home ownership.

jesse
Member

@Supraboy: High oil is not good for world economic output. $110 is double dip territory.

itwillneverpop
Guest
itwillneverpop

vancouver real estate is overpriced but not in bubble. deal with it.

penguin
Member
penguin

The article seems to say Canada's growth rate lags the G7 it also refers that the Canadian gov't has put the brakes on stimulus unlike most of the G7

Also according to the article the working population in Canada is still growing unlike Germany so Canada needs to create more jobs just to keep the unemployment rate steady

Is the writer suggesting the Canada gov't spend more?

Penguin