2011: Please tell us the future

Chopper suggested we do a 2011 prediction discussion thread.  So what do you think 2011 will bring Vancouver and the rest of the world economy?

-Changes to CMHC mortgage rules?
-Increased foreclosures?
-Higher prices?
-Higher Interest Rates?
-Increases migration?
-The resurgence of the Euro?
-A US housing market hits bottom?

Post your thoughts and predictions here.  Most accurate forecast gets a cookie!

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[…] other weekend and let me say, the raise for moving to Cowtown is much more than $25K!” and January 11th, 2011 at 1:43 pm- “My moving to Calgary wouldn’t be acceptance that the market will continue up, it would be […]

AG Sage
9 years ago

DaMann Says: January 11th, 2011 at 12:50 pm @Dave: >Your not specifying time lines Dave. You said a crash is anything more than 30% anything under is a correction ( and I agree) but over what time? 11% a year for three years for a total of 33% would be crash territory for me, closer to a good hefty correction, but because it’s over 3 years it doesn’t count? What about 12% a year for four years for a total of 48%, that’s not a crash? It most certainly is. Absolute numbers matter a bit too. A 20% decline from a million will buy you a decent whole house in the States just on the difference. But a 50% decline in a neighborhood of Detroit where the average is $20,000 would only be a $10,000 drop. Would that still be… Read more »

AG Sage
9 years ago

My 2011 predictions:

March, detached house price (0% year on year): 800k (essentially flat from the last few months)

September, detached house price (-12% year on year): $699k

From my rough graph here:
http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2011/01/va

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

@VanRant: ……he does not pop the bubble soon or they (The Conservative Party) will get slaughter at the polls………..

By who? A couple thousand moron buyers in Vancouver and Toronto (mostly liberal ridings anyway)? Most people will go on living in their homes and paying their mortgage – just as they did when prices went up to crazy levels – so shall they do when prices go down to normal levels.

They may think they'd have a problem at the polls, but I think most people won't be impacted so they won't give a rats ass. But, prices will still collapse!

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
9 years ago

@Drachen:

It's flat.

Drachen
Drachen
9 years ago

@Dave:

"No worries. It was subtle. Drachen said my logic was like this Loughner lunatic. My response mirrored the type of logical inference used by Loughner in his videos."

And…sadly, you failed to produce something which was even internally logical in two attempts. Loughner managed that in spite of a severe case of schizophrenia, which leaves me wondering. Just exactly what is wrong with Dave's brain?

DaMann
DaMann
9 years ago

@metalhead:

That would be perfect, but it will never happen.

VanRant
VanRant
9 years ago

The housing bubble in Canada is so huge (Mr Flaherty knows that) and he does not want it pop it before the next election. I will be surprise if he will change the CMHC rule too much this time so he does not pop the bubble soon or they (The Conservative Party) will get slaughter at the polls.

metalhead
metalhead
9 years ago

#129

Flats doesn't need to play dumb.

All he has to do is go to 10% dp/25yr. amort. and restrict CMHC insurance to 1st time buyers only.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
9 years ago

Damn, I missed the 10K party last night.

I'll be sure to attend the 11K party next week.

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

article at the financial post with a remark by flaherty on banks asking for tighther regulation. rest of the article says basically what people here are saying, the banks don't have any risk, it's the taxpayers who bear the risk.

rp1
rp1
9 years ago

Flaherty will require CMHC insured buyers to *qualify* for a 30 year amortization. Interest rates will be raised 0.5% in late spring. Listings equal to 2010 with sales trending lower. Average days on market climbs steadily throughout the year. Sellers wait it out.

Unemployment will fluctuate between 7-8%. Nominal economic growth will fall below the rate of inflation by the second half as consumer credit growth tips negative. Thoughts of impending doom will appear in late 2011 and the media will insist there isn't/won't be/can't be a recession. TSX peaks in the Fall, up 12%. Richmond detached house prices pass $2 million dollars.

Devore
Devore
9 years ago

If we have buyers who can't even get 5% down, how will they get 10?

Devore
Devore
9 years ago

@Superfly:

10% downpayment won’t change anything. We already have 5% and it is easy to get around (cashback mortgages etc.).

Is it? 10% is double the downpayment. Most banks have 5% cashback mortgages. They're clamoring to tighten lending rules, because they cannot do so themselves (due to competition, who pulls the trigger first?) no matter how much they're itching to. So I do not think we can count on those for much longer. An RRSP loan makes for a comfortable 5% down, but again, that money has to be saved up first.

It's a lot of money. Right now you can get basically get a mortgage with no money of your own to put down. Do you think this will continue to be the case when the DP is 10%?

Superfly
Superfly
9 years ago

Jesse – I will get my asbestos suit ready, just in case.

Dave
9 years ago

@Royce McCutcheon:

No worries. It was subtle. Drachen said my logic was like this Loughner lunatic. My response mirrored the type of logical inference used by Loughner in his videos.

If A, then B

A

Therefore, B

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

@BoomBust, "Is the 10K party referring to the 10K or so property listings that were lost from October to January? Is this what the hubbub is about?"

The real 10K party will be in the Fall, when there will be 10K REO properties for sale at realistic prices, in addition to a similar number of non-REO listings. Can't wait for the Fall!

jesse
9 years ago

@Superfly: "For price drops this spring, even at inventory levels of 18,000, we would need sales of less than 3000 per month (MOI 6) for a balanced market."

The "heavy lifting" of price drops, if they are going to happen, will occur in the second half of the year. Expect the benchmark to increase in value until May, regardless of how many listings come online.

If it doesn't, put on your asbestos suit.

Boombust
Boombust
9 years ago

Is the 10K party referring to the 10K or so property listings that were lost from October to January?

Is this what the hubbub is about?

buffates
buffates
9 years ago

@paulb.: Love those N/W Van stats. Keep em comin!! yeehaww!

Superfly
Superfly
9 years ago

VHB, Jesse, Devore:

10% downpayment won't change anything. We already have 5% and it is easy to get around (cashback mortgages etc.).

For price drops this spring, even at inventory levels of 18,000, we would need sales of less than 3000 per month (MOI 6) for a balanced market. Judging by Fall sales, we'll be comfortably above that unless there is a major global shock. Something needs to happen to choke sales off significantly to get prices to fall IMO.

GSP
GSP
9 years ago

Interesting set of predictions covering housing and the economy…
http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2011/01/01

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

…my dad just got his property price tax assessment… nice house on salt spring island with great view – tax assessed price down 12% over last year. I know thats not a real estate price but its certainly a perceived swift move down

Troll
Troll
9 years ago

@Drachen: Did Dave kill your cat or something? Or are you still bitter about being wrong 2 years ago?

Dave
9 years ago

@Drachen:

I notice that you don't have a sense of humor.