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Friday Free-for-all!

January 28, 2011 admin

Well you made it to the end of the week and the end of the month. We’ve been blessed with a break in the rain for several days now and the weekend is here! It’s time to do our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic economic discussion. Here are a few things going on in Vancouver BC and around the world:

–Home ownership isn’t for all
–Top 10 effects of new mortgage rules
–Mortgage broker says new rules could leave some homeless
–BC house prices too high by National and Global standards
–NHLers burnt on Bear Mountain, RCMP investigates
–BC child poverty results in deaths?
–US housing has room to fall
–Housing double-dip accelerating
–US foreclosures spread to formerly safe areas
–UK home values fall on demand drop
–Australia braces for rising interest rates
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post you news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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blueskies

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you just gotta love it when
overpaid sports figures get
taken to the cleaners

shadenfreud redux…….

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The One

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Credit demand appears to be decelerating. An early warning sign of deflationary pressure? Hard to sustain Van house prices without a continuous expansion in credit and a new stream of willing fools.

http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2011/01/27…

Member

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Poor sad bear… Mountain.

The creep is starting to spread.

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pricedoutfornow

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When CBC's business guy this week spoke of our declining credit demand, he seemed quite optimistic (Yay! Canadians are getting the message about debt!), however he didn't seem to realize that when people stop using credit in our consumer-driven economy, the economy as a whole will take a hit. Duh. Why are some things to obvious to most of us, yet the "experts" get it wrong time and time again?

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Renting

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you just gotta love it when overpaid sports figures get taken to the cleaners

There are a lot of current and former NHL players involved in property development these days. Trevor Linden is another one who is knee deep. Kind of reminds me of 1999 when all the celebrities where investing in tech stocks making millions.

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Runawayscreaming

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One aspect of the boneheaded hockey player story is the sheer boneheadedness. The more important aspect of the story is how the Bear Mountain development underlines the complete absence of urban planning on Vancouver Island, The urban sprawl between Campbell River and Victoria makes Calgary look like a model sustainable community. If the scenery on Vancouver Island was removed Victoria would resemble any vanilla-pie suburban blight in North America, complete with Big Box Hell and growing traffic jams but with a real-estate apartheid that keeps the working class of Victoria in abject poverty while hockey players and retired oil executives from Calgary live it up in fabulous Victoria sprawl homes.

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Renting

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Very good aticle on financial insights. A must read.

I like this quote:

Bob Farrel’s 4th rule of investing as it applies to any monetary phenomena: Exponential rapidly rising or falling (trends) usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.

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registered

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From the FP article:

…says Phil Soper, president of Royal LePage Real Estate Services…. "A home in urban Canada is a “limited commodity” in a finite pool of land."

Holy mother of god, how stupid do have to be to believe everyone is that stupid? Canada is running out of room? No space left around our urban centres? The industry has reached a point where they've lived with lies for so long the fine line of credibility isn't blurred, it's gone.

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same message

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How many years does it take to realize you bears you are wrong about Vancouver RE? Christ, 10 years of gains and counting. And if Vancouver corrects to where you think it will, it will take another 10 years, just look to your blessed US model. That is 20 years of living that you missed.

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gonzonista

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Let's not forget the ten years previous to this bubble where housing prices were flat, or the ten years before that where the crash of '82 resulted in price declines for that decade in Vancouver. Just because there has been ten years of increases is no indication we are due for another ten years. Markets fluctuate.

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bubbly

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Re:"Mortgage rules leave some homeless"

I love it how for the RE cartel it's either home "ownership" (debt until death) or homelessness. Renting is not an option (or is it worse than homelessness?).

Aren't the new rules still much looser than the traditional rules that have existed for decades?

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LOL

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In the past 10 years I have, in no particular order, travelled extensively, gone to graduate school, changed careers, gotten married, bought a dream sailboat, saved tons of $$ for my retirement and old age, given to charity, and enjoyed my family and friends…I fall down on my knees and praise God for this miracle of miracles…I've got a life and I'm a *gasp* RENTER!

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Bubble Lad

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More good news from the US housing market

(yesterday's New York Times):
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/business/econom…

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pricedoutfornow

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"That is 20 years of living that you missed."

Darn! Apparently because I'm a renter I have no life. Guess that's why I have money in the bank, can take vacations every year, have a decent job, spouse, nice family etc etc. I guess a life is only a life when you're drowning in debt. Who cares if I'm wrong about Vancouver real estate? Fact is, I much prefer living in my rented condo than being able to say I "own" a butt-ugly house that cost a million bucks on Knight Street. Heck, even if someone offered me that house for FREE I probably wouldn't live there!

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@same message: "That is 20 years of living that you missed."

—

tell that to the US house-poor retirees

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Best place on meth

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Nobody cares what you cheerleaders have to say.

Nobody.

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Troll

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In the past 10 years I have, in no particular order, travelled extensively, gone to graduate school, changed careers, gotten married, bought a dream sailboat, saved tons of $$ for my retirement and old age, given to charity, and enjoyed my family and friends…

Well, if you'd bought 10 years ago you'd have lower mortgage payments then your current rent, be sitting on an asset worth more than double what you paid for it, and STILL have been able to do all those fabulous things you mentioned. Oh well.

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Krazy Kanuk

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@fixie guy: I love that. Canada with less than 4 people per square km is…..running out of land! Australia is close to that as well, and the stupidity is strong with them as well. I think my favorite thing about the news posts are the comments. It really shows the level of delusion. Seems about 10% to 20% believe that there is a huge bubble. The rest talk about rich Asians, How we threw a party (the Olympics) and now everyone wants to live here, and the occasional sop story about how they can't afford to live here because a house is a million $'s (can't rent….what would my friends think!?!?). it's going to be painful, but I can't see how staying sideways would be any good. It would keep us uncompetitive, and still strangle our only industry (Real Estate).… Read more »

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Anonymouse

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@pricedoutfornow:

". I guess a life is only a life when you’re drowning in debt. "

Ah, the old "renters are rich, owners are poor" argument. Don't you guys ever get tired of wheeling that falsehood out?

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CelicaMan

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Whatever happened to Geoff Courtnall and Pam Anderson's plans for that complex in Ladysmith? **fizzle pop**

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BigJohnJim

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Quattro development – Whalley

Anyone know anything about the Quattro 3 development in Surrey (other than the fact that the first one got burnt down!).

They have 1 bedroom units starting at $149,000, which at first seems reasonable, however they are literally shoeboxes.

Strata fees run at .33cents a squarefoot – Over $230/month for a 700 squarefoot apartment..seems awefully pricey.

I wonder how sales for these units are doing.

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Krazy Kanuk

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@Troll: True…and If he bought all kinds of tech stock in 1995 and sold it in 1999 maybe he could retire today. So what? 20-20 Hindsight is a pretty easy game to play. What if he bought that house in Detroit? Would that have been a good buy?

KK

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same message

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Nobody cares what you cheerleaders have to say.

Nobody.

*******

You seem to be mistaken.

With a 70% homeownership rate, and tons of lust driven potential buyers, everyone cares what us cheerleaders have to say….

Its just the dozen or so permabear posters here that "apparently" don't care what us cheerleaders have to say.

Even then, you really do care, since you spend countless hours analyzing our messaging and tactics.

Guess we have you coming and going TA.

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Anonymouse

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"Strata fees run at .33cents a squarefoot – Over $230/month for a 700 squarefoot apartment..seems awefully pricey."

$230 for 700sqft seems about average.

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Anonymouse

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"Its just the dozen or so permabear posters here that “apparently” don’t care what us cheerleaders have to say. "

They'd rather shut down any dissenting opinion than address it without resorting to insults.

I made a true statement yesterday that the CULT index had been on a downward trajectory since its introduction (when it sat at over 600) until the beginning of the new year. The comment got foreclosed, then I got called a "prick". Pleasant bunch.

Bubble? What Bubble?