Friday Free-for-all!
Well you made it to the end of the week and the end of the month. We’ve been blessed with a break in the rain for several days now and the weekend is here! It’s time to do our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic economic discussion. Here are a few things going on in Vancouver BC and around the world:
-Home ownership isn’t for all
-Top 10 effects of new mortgage rules
-Mortgage broker says new rules could leave some homeless
-BC house prices too high by National and Global standards
-NHLers burnt on Bear Mountain, RCMP investigates
-BC child poverty results in deaths?
-US housing has room to fall
-Housing double-dip accelerating
-US foreclosures spread to formerly safe areas
-UK home values fall on demand drop
-Australia braces for rising interest rates
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So what are you seeing out there? Post you news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
February 5th, 2011 at 12:02 am
http://www.thestar.com/business/personalfinance/a…
"Toronto housing economist Will Dunning. “There was a large element of speculation in the U.S. that has not been present in Canada."
Yeah, ok Will no problem: Did Will mention his connection with:
Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, which represents brokers and others in the industry.
Downside Of Renting – A Forced Move: “So now me, wife and two kids (one whom is 4 months) have two months to find a home.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
January 31st, 2011 at 5:35 am
[...] at vancouvercondo.info January 29th, 2011 at 1:45 pm – “The intangible benefits to owning brought into sharp focus: This morning I got the [...]
January 31st, 2011 at 1:01 am
@ulsterman:
I said sign a 3 year or 5 year lease and renew prior to it expiring.
Then why are you whining about it. You had flexibility as that was the agreement you made with the landlord from day 1 with the one year lease reverting to month to month thereafter. You signed the agreement and could have asked for a different agreement or sought a different place to rent with terms you want.
It doesn't phone it just starts leaking. A phone call would be much nicer. I assume you have never owned.
It is a risk for those who don't do any research on a landlord before renting and or don't understand you have a say in drafting the terms of the agreement. Most ads on craigslist say "minimum 1 year lease". That means longer leases are available.
What you should do is talk to a realtor and I am sure they can put you in the same situation as your owning friends. We will check back in a few years to see how your move in 2011 was a non event compared to what you have gone through owning over the coming years. Trust me on this.
January 31st, 2011 at 12:30 am
@Best place on meth: @patriotz: The latest Planet Money Podcast on NPR has an interesting analysis of the post bubble by two different economists. There are some good ideas in the US on how to slowly get rid of Fannie and Freddie (aka CMHC South) – like gradually changing the amount that they can insure until there is no advantage anymore to using the govt
January 30th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
@ulsterman: You could have signed another lease when the first one expired. If you desire a stable housing situation, you have to make it happen. If the landlord doesn't want to give you another lease, then you have lots of time to prepare for the change. Moving is stressful and disruptive, but so are financial difficulties resulting from high cost of housing, such as are known to break up marriages and make people do other unexplainable things. And by all indications, renting for middle class households is affordable in the city.
January 30th, 2011 at 3:30 pm
@Renting:
Renting: Sorry to blow a hole in your theory, but in fact i DID sign a one year lease. Thereafter it reverted to a one-to-month and there wasn't a ton i could do cos it was the landlord's right – sure i could have threatened to move and maybe i should have. I lived there another 18 months before the recent notice. So, i guess i wasn't trying to have it both ways as you so thoughtfully put it.
WRT a new roof. You need to be pretty unobservant to be a homeowner and not have an understanding that your old roof will need replaced in XXXX years. You can plan. Rarely does your roof phone up on a Saturday morning and say that it will need to be completely replaced within 8 weeks.
The point is that being evicted is an all-too real risk of renting a house. It is a major trauma is you are not footloose and fancy free. None of my owning friends are going anywhere in the next few years. Trust me on that one.
January 30th, 2011 at 1:19 pm
@Best place on meth:
highlarious…Mclister brokers McMortgages with his McWife. How sweet. They better have a Mcbackup plan for income.
January 30th, 2011 at 12:57 pm
@VHB:
"So, for the month the gain will be around 2K units. That is a fairly steep accumulation of inventory. That is not 'normal'. It is far beyond the regular seasonal January gain."
Yes, this makes sense since I cast the curse.
4444
January 30th, 2011 at 11:36 am
@AG Sage: "The number I usually see tossed around by professional landlords to compute cash flow is to assume 70% occupancy"
Where, in Detroit? I've talked to a few local pros (well, they've been around the business a few decades, anyways) and they state Vancouver vacancy rates are about 5-7% or so. I don't know why anyone would assume 30% vacancy rate. Budget for 30% to ensure adequate reserve fund maybe, but assume…?
January 30th, 2011 at 10:56 am
@Girlbear: The pathetic furniture shown in many expensive listings (unless they're staged) is the surest sign of both the speculative component of most house purchases and the resulting lack of disposable income available to purchasers.
It's bizarre to see "$2 million" houses with huge unfurnished spaces, furniture from Ikea (or, worse, The Brick), mattresses without frames or boxsprings, etc. People are buying houses way bigger and more expensive than they need or can afford because they figure they'll be worth way more next year.
January 30th, 2011 at 10:35 am
Inventory gains in January
2006: +448
2007: +537
2008: +2008
2009: +1406
2010: +2456
2011: > +1800
Figuring out the near-term direction of the market is as easy as comparing current sales to current inventory. If there are >6 months of inventory, prices will fall a bit. If there are <6 MoI, prices will rise a bit.
January and Feburary typically have big upward price pressure. That's because there are buyers out there, but not all the inventory taken off the market at the end of the previous year has found its way back.
(I've seen them–these are guys in such a rush to get in, they leap at whatever crap inventory is posted in January. The right time to buy is summer or late fall when you can find someone with a languishing listing who is desperate. But I digress . . .)
In strong years (like 2006, 2007), inventory gains in January are piddly–500 or so.
Between January 4th and January 28th, we gained about 1800 units. So, for the month the gain will be around 2K units. That is a fairly steep accumulation of inventory. That is not 'normal'. It is far beyond the regular seasonal January gain.
That doesn't mean that prices are going to crash on February 1st. However, if we are going to see price decreases in 2011, we first have to see inventory grow A LOT from current levels. We aren't going to get to those precarious kinds of inventory levels in one month alone. But if we are to get there, a January like this one is right on track to get the job done.
January 30th, 2011 at 10:17 am
@Anonymouse: “I don’t mean to be repetitive here, but downtown condo inventory has increased by 30% since the start of this month. What’s the hell is going on”
I didn’t notice you asking when it dropped almost 70% last year. I don’t mean to be repetitive here.
__________
psst – he's being sarcastic, dummy.
January 30th, 2011 at 9:50 am
@Anonymouse:
Well, first of all that's a lie as the drop was 55%, not 70%.
Secondly, and much more importantly, it took 6 months to drop that amount while it only took a little over 3 weeks to increase by 30% and that's probably why I didn't ask – because it was moving so slowly then.
As a cheerleader I expect you distort the truth as much as possible and even flat out lie from time to time, and that probably explains why you were called a prick by another poster here.
January 30th, 2011 at 9:43 am
@Best place on meth:
"I don’t mean to be repetitive here, but downtown condo inventory has increased by 30% since the start of this month. What’s the hell is going on"
I didn't notice you asking when it dropped almost 70% last year. I don't mean to be repetitive here.
January 30th, 2011 at 9:22 am
@Renting: The number I usually see tossed around by professional landlords to compute cash flow is to assume 70% occupancy. Since you will be providing 100% occupancy, there should be some room there for bargaining.