July 2010 tax assesments are up
Up, as in up in value and up as in now available online. Most of the assessed prices are current as of July 2010, and up 12% in Vancouver and a dramatic 17.4% in Richmond. Many lower mainland areas saw higher prices, although Whistler is down just over 2%. You can find the assessed value for your house and your neighbors house online here. Thanks to Jesse for the link.
And just because this always comes up when we talk about property tax: Taxes here are not calculated like they are in California. Property tax in Vancouver is based on your properties value in comparison to your neighbors. This means big jumps in value do not mean higher taxes, and drops in value don’t mean lower taxes. The only thing that will make your property tax bill go higher is if the government decides they want more tax money, or your property goes up in value compared to all your neighbors. The only thing that will make your tax bill go lower is if your property value drops in comparison to your neighbors or the government decides it doesn’t want so much money.
January 4th, 2011 at 4:23 pm
@Supraboy:
>>Prices in Vancouver have gone up well over 100% in the last 10 years, with many neighbourhoods seeing values triple in the last 10 years.
In the last two years alone, we have see 30% increases in prices.<<
The incredible thing is that this guys seriously believes that this constitutes a bullish argument.
January 4th, 2011 at 3:50 pm
@Original Bear:
Why was this comment foreclosed? Must be voted by all the bears.
Original Bear Says:
January 4th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
Since we are talking about bears being objective, and listening to all sides, I must note that the post below was submitted to the greatest bear of all, Garth Turner.
Unfortunately, the post was deleted by him on the Greaterfool. I suppose the truth hurts, whether it is told straight up or in a mocking format. I guess people listening to his one sided rants are really the “greaterfools.”
**************************
Wow! Unbelievable! Fantastic!
Vancouver assessed values, not imaginary pull it out of thin air realtor values, are up 12% in one year.
Richmond values are up 17% in one year!
Good thing that we all sold at the so-called “peak” in 2008 and rented; good thing that we waited for the Olympic crash; waited for the new “devastating” April mortgage rules in come in; for inventory to swell to new highs putting downward pressure on prices.
Good thing that our armchair economic analyses paid off. Good to see that joe public listened to those economic fundamental thingies and doom and gloom reports and waited on the sidelines
So let’s recap…
Prices in Vancouver have gone up well over 100% in the last 10 years, with many neighbourhoods seeing values triple in the last 10 years.
In the last two years alone, we have see 30% increases in prices.
So that big crash, I mean now revised for 2011 mild decline, in prices will not even eat away two years of gains.
Gee, I am glad that I was the smart renter that went against that greaterfool herd. Not like there is strength in numbers or anything.
Be sure to keep renting for a few more years boys and girls. Maybe you will see those 2008 prices again. Of course you will have wasted tens of thousands waiting for prices to drop to a level where you could have bought years ago. Lol – super smart decision.
January 4th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps: No mention from Wen that China might delay the property tax implementation due to local government pushback, which is what was rumored yesterday.
January 4th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/908…
"Premier Wen Jiabao last month voiced the government's determination to pull prices back to a reasonable level"
First they engineer a housing bubble, now they want to burst it.
January 4th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Yalie, cheers!
January 4th, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Original Bear.
Buy a tulip bulb?
January 4th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
@crashcow: That's what I think too, and if a busy spring market fails to materialize, then it's gonna get real ugly, real fast.
January 4th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
@paulb.: Great numbers paulb!
Little surprised how after such a slow 2010, current inventory still managed to clear to the same level it was at after a very heated 2006 and also 2009 (http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv). Perhaps a lot of sellers pulling their properties off in anticipation of an '09-like rally?
January 4th, 2011 at 12:32 pm
Sorry folks, but now Garth has immortalized me. My post #50 is now part of his post today. Lol. I guess the truth got under his skin.
#67 anonymous
Take lessons – that is how you get under someone's skin. But keep trying little boy.
January 4th, 2011 at 12:32 pm
Phil – Agent Will keeps a running tally of listings.
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
Scroll down to the second graph for total listings per year going back to 2008. I think he uses uses a different regional mix than PaulB, so the numbers will not match up with his, but you can still see the trends.
January 4th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
Just returned from two weeks in Northern Ireland – formerly the 2nd most expensive market in the UK. The market has fallen 40-60% in the past 3 years, with low interest rates and steady employment.
It was heaven. No one talked about flipping properties, granite, stainless steel, investment properties, renters vs owners. There were just hundreds of "for let" (rent) signs outside houses that owners could not sell at prices they wanted.
As i looked around at affordable houses in pleasant areas, i felt like i'd found a long-lost friend.
January 4th, 2011 at 11:57 am
Does anyone have a link to the graph showing the listings per year?
January 4th, 2011 at 11:05 am
@Original bear, "Wow! Such wit and insight!"
No, not wit. Not insight. I'm just needling you, and it seems to be working. I got you to write a six-paragraph rebuttal.
January 4th, 2011 at 10:20 am
Remember, too, that Edwards' forecasts were generally rubbished at the time. His dismissing of the supposed Asian Miracle in the mid-1990s as "Noddynomics" was resented – until the Asian currency crisis of 1998.
Albert Edwards, SocGen bear, takes a bite out of China
January 4th, 2011 at 10:04 am
Other bubble markets have blown up with low interest rates and low inventory.
The supply sky rocketed after the crash.
I think the same thing will happen here, the net result will be low prices, and low finance costs for those who qualify.
But no need to rush, enjoy the care free rental, prices won't be going up for a long long time.
January 4th, 2011 at 9:50 am
@paulb.:
Already? On the very first day of the year?
I thought the mass listings wouldn't start until the 2nd week.
January 4th, 2011 at 9:43 am
Its started…
New Listings 267
Price Changes 63
Sold Listings 88
9,435 listings; should be a great year of inventory parties.
January 4th, 2011 at 9:33 am
@Original Bear:
We bears told you this was to happen on the way to the crash.
Just when everybody is convinced it's different here this time…
And as far as the Chinese moving the market in Richmond, it maybe so, but it's not the rich smart ones.
January 4th, 2011 at 9:29 am
@Absinthe: (Absinthe referred to the ‘renter’s poll’. This was an initiative of poster ‘ams’, and can be found here, for those of you interested:
Renter Poll – “Where do you rent, how many bedrooms, and how much do you pay?”
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1GY
January 4th, 2011 at 9:14 am
Even if someone buys a property and says "no mortgage" doesn't necessarily mean they have a whole pile of cash sitting around. I know a guy who bought a place with "no mortgage". He's 30 years old. Where did he get the money? His parents' line of credit! That's right, $300k on his parents' LOC! And why not if rates are so low? Lots of people have home equity lines of credit they use to buy second (or third) properties. Not saying that this is the case, but just pointing this out.
January 4th, 2011 at 9:11 am
@ReadyToPop:
My understanding is that the Chinese will impose some kind of capital controls to prevent any large influx of money but we'll see how that goes.
The yuan will only rise as much as their govt lets it which will be no more than about 5-6% this year.
January 4th, 2011 at 9:00 am
Well, it’s nice to be back to inventory-climb season! Autumn is boring that way. At least we can put the idiot ‘gee bears inventory is falling!’ trolls behind us now . . .
Here is the (approx) gain in total REBGV inventory in the past 5 Januaries.
2006: +448
2007: +537
2008: +2012
2009: +1406
2010: +2456
So, to the extent we want to read what the January tea leaves are telling us, I would say that if we are gaining inventory at a pace for x>2000, we will be looking at price drops. If 1K<x<2K, then fairly steady prices. If x<1K, then it is time to surrender to our 'rich asian overlords'.
So, watch that pace of inventory growth. Listings do gather strength as January flows on, but we should still get a pretty good indication over the first half of the month. We need to gain about 100 net listings a day to make it to 2K net for the month.
January 4th, 2011 at 8:46 am
Since we are talking about bears being objective, and listening to all sides, I must note that the post below was submitted to the greatest bear of all, Garth Turner.
Unfortunately, the post was deleted by him on the Greaterfool. I suppose the truth hurts, whether it is told straight up or in a mocking format. I guess people listening to his one sided rants are really the "greaterfools."
**************************
Wow! Unbelievable! Fantastic!
Vancouver assessed values, not imaginary pull it out of thin air realtor values, are up 12% in one year.
Richmond values are up 17% in one year!
Good thing that we all sold at the so-called “peak” in 2008 and rented; good thing that we waited for the Olympic crash; waited for the new “devastating” April mortgage rules in come in; for inventory to swell to new highs putting downward pressure on prices.
Good thing that our armchair economic analyses paid off. Good to see that joe public listened to those economic fundamental thingies and doom and gloom reports and waited on the sidelines
So let’s recap…
Prices in Vancouver have gone up well over 100% in the last 10 years, with many neighbourhoods seeing values triple in the last 10 years.
In the last two years alone, we have see 30% increases in prices.
So that big crash, I mean now revised for 2011 mild decline, in prices will not even eat away two years of gains.
Gee, I am glad that I was the smart renter that went against that greaterfool herd. Not like there is strength in numbers or anything.
Be sure to keep renting for a few more years boys and girls. Maybe you will see those 2008 prices again. Of course you will have wasted tens of thousands waiting for prices to drop to a level where you could have bought years ago. Lol – super smart decision.
January 4th, 2011 at 8:40 am
Guys, the anecdote is true. Sorry, I cant publish the details.
I am an owner and my house has more than doubled in price when i bought it in 1999. But I dont care, I live in it. I dont see the point of higher prices, if I sell, I would still have to live somewhere so selling for 1 million to buy another place for 1 million does not make a difference, even if I paid only 400k when I bought it.
All those higher prices have done, is priced out of the RE the young generation. My kids have good jobs both but cant afford a place in the city they are born.
I am no racist, just saying how my neighbourhood has eveolved this past decade.
I can understand the bear view and fully endorse it but being in denial and calling everyone with some bullish news a liar, it is no way of being objective.
There is a lot of asian money and probably as much grow op money in burnaby and might last much longer than any of us think.
Our immigration laws are geared toward asia and the drug laws are softer than in amsterdam. Cant you see the eruption of gang fights at the heart of the city for christ'sake? Why our goverment does not do anything about it?
January 4th, 2011 at 8:36 am
@Best place on meth
How about higher interest Chinese returns? Will money be moving away from
Canada to places like Australia and China in search of better returns?
On the flip side will RE holdings here drop in value if The Yuan rises?
Will be interesting to watch…..RTP
January 4th, 2011 at 8:27 am
@ReadyToPop, “Original Bear = TROLL”
Whomever he (she) is, he has way too much time on his/her hands. Thus not profitably employed, and no prospects in view. Can you guess what his vocation is? (Starts with R, ends with R, and also contains the letters A, E, L, O and T … but in a different order).
******
Wow! Such wit and insight! Going by your logic, pretty much every regular poster on here is unemployed or underemployed
Do we really need to review who posts on here and how many times? There are just under a dozen posters on this site at the best of times.
Hmmmm….lets recap and show you how your regular bear posters, who reinforce your own view that RE will crash, post more times than any "troll."
Go through any post and see how many times the underemployed psuedo intellectual wannabe Patriotz posts. One hint, just look for the comments which refute previous comments, as opposed to any original comment or anecdotes.
Or there was Drachen, which posted every minute a while back, due to the luxury of being a low income earning teaching assistant.
The list could go one little one.
January 4th, 2011 at 8:14 am
@ReadyToPop, "Original Bear = TROLL"
Whomever he (she) is, he has way too much time on his/her hands. Thus not profitably employed, and no prospects in view. Can you guess what his vocation is? (Starts with R, ends with R, and also contains the letters A, E, L, O and T … but in a different order).
January 4th, 2011 at 8:11 am
China's inflation may be getting out of control.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/World-red-alert-…
January 4th, 2011 at 8:06 am
Original Bear = TROLL