A Tale of Two Cities

Average Vancouver detached prices to the moon! Check out Larry Yatkowsky’s graph.

Alas all is not well in BC. The Vancouver Sun shows a few Okanagan MLS listings, highlighting what a cool 550,000 smackeroonies gets you, compared to the EastVan McGill Speedway placeholder (pictured below). Kelowna has been experiencing a significant inventory glut over the past year and prices are starting to fall:

While Metro Vancouver’s home prices continue to rise, prices in the Okanagans have experienced a significant slide, local realtors said Monday.

One local agent says vacation properties are “feeling the pinch,” as buyers focus on their home markets during the economic turmoil in the past few years.

So the euphemism du jour is “pinch”. Not exactly the best of times up there. Let’s look at a couple of these “vacation” properties. What’s the difference between a vacation property and a principal residence exactly?

2919 MCGILL ST Vancouver

545 San Cabrio Court, Kelowna area

965 Monashee Place, Kelowna

Ah but location is everything you say. Meh, I’ll use these props as a baseline and revisit what $550K buys in our Two Cities later on this year.

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[…] turtle at vancouvercondo.info February 2nd, 2011 at 6:34 pm- “My friend Stan sat down today, with an anxiety attack: he is about to buy a 1 bdrm condo […]

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[…] Crash at vancouvercondo.info 2 Feb 2011 4:19pm – “Here’s an attempted flip: 4842 Victory Street Burnaby MLS #V861597 Sold Sep22/2010 for $655,000 now listed for $888,000. House is a teardown or in need of major renovation. Was an estate sale originally in 2010 I think.” […]

patriotz
9 years ago

@vreaa:

“Since I bought my home my ‘income’ has been 40% from my job and 60% from housing appreciation.”

Of course the housing appreciation is not 'income' but unrealized (and collectively unrealizable) capital gains.

Such is the material that this house of cards has been built from.

N
N
9 years ago

@Lilypad:

No, it is not a free market, which is a shame, but restricting the fees that can be charged by businesses represents more state intervention, not less. I know it makes it easier if you consider every instance of reduced choice to be communist and every short lived burst of individual satisfaction as capitalist, but it's not that simple. (See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_in_One_Les

VHB
VHB
9 years ago

@Anonymouse: If we continue on pace for inventory accrual we will be at 13K or so by the end of the month. That would put MoI at 4.6 with 2800 sales.

This is indeed lower than 6, so you have to expect prices up a few notches.

A precondition of price drops is a big inventory stock. We aren't there yet, so no price drops yet.

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

@blueskies:

All your losing bears are pinning the hope on China hei ?

I am surely to tell that even China raise its int to moon level,no one could stop the rolling tank which carries tons of cash enough flooding the whole world.When you guys can face the raality and admit defeat ? Vancouver is unique market cos it is dominated by Chinese buyers either from local or abroad.This century belongs to China.

oneangryslav2
oneangryslav2
9 years ago

@Anonymouse: If the Chinese money thing is a myth – and I’ve no idea whether or not it is – why are the marketeers chasing after it? "A musician drove his statistician friend to a symphony concert one evening in his brand new mid-sized Chevy. When they arrived at the hall, all the parking spots were taken except one in a remote, dark corner of the lot. The musician quickly maneuvered his mid-sized Chevy into the space and they jumped out and walked toward the hall. They had only taken about ten steps when the musician suddenly realized he had lost his car key. The statistician was unconcerned because he knew the key had to be within one standard deviation of the car. They both retraced their steps and began searching the shadowed ground close to the driver's door. After… Read more »

Brown Cow
Brown Cow
9 years ago

@Renting:

Finally someone with a brain. Don't forget the brown dudes are buying too. We are not rich, but we have many. With so many of us, there is got to be some dumb ones buying now.

fixie guy
fixie guy
9 years ago

#175 Best place on meth Says: "One last vid from a concerned citizen who fears Vancouver is already lost."

Sympathetic, but way too many factual errors for my taste. Bailed early. If I had a Youtube account I'd reply to his rhetorical 'where is anyone talking about this problem' question. 😉

Anonymouse
Anonymouse
9 years ago

@VHB:

"MoI at this sales pace 3.94"

Wow.

paulb
9 years ago

@1:

I am in school fulltime so I don't really have a "from the trenches" perspective, however if I had to guess, I would expect a busy next couple months with unusually high sales and listing numbers; followed by a huge drop in demand this summer and significant price declines. I expect at least a 30% drop within a couple years.

Lilypad
Lilypad
9 years ago

@N: N, to be quite honest, I think you are the misinformed one here on the internet fee debate (newsbreak: internet providing is not a free market in Canada)

See here for a debate on the issue: (go to 35:35)

http://tinyurl.com/648yhr9

Go George Burger!!!

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

Interest rate rise could trigger house price collapse, report says

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/interest-rate-rise-could

' A new report predicts that Canada's housing market is poised for a collapse and is only waiting for the trigger of rising interest rates expected for later this year — a view that flies in the face of many other forecasts. '

but but it's different here!!!!

Renting
Renting
9 years ago

The fact a guy like Ozzie Jurock is still around shows how stupid people are in Vancouver. People actually pay him to take a course that teaches you how to buy real estate FROM him. Ozzie Jurock is the biggest real estate flipper in all of BC. He makes Tom Vu look like a well respected financial advisor.

http://classactionozzie.com/

Ozzie Jurock is best known as a Canadian Real Estate guru that teaches people to buy investment property. He also sells property to those same people that he sells advice to through a company called AMG Investments Ltd

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
9 years ago

One last vid from a concerned citizen who fears Vancouver is already lost.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVH8yVX3E1A

paradox
paradox
9 years ago

How can people listen to that corrosive teutonic accent of Ozzie is beyond me. especially when he is speaking his book so blatantly. yeah, new york, paris , london and vancouver. What a pice of shit motherfucker.

N
N
9 years ago

@paradox: "We already pay the highest internet fees on the developped world already. Now they want to put everyone on interent rationing, fxxking comunist country we are becoming!" You are mixed up on this one. The market players like Bell want to charge more. In a free market, they would get to do that. The ruling that people are mad about says that people can sell what they want for the price they want. The Harper government is coming in and saying, No, we the government will decided who pays how much for what, and we will not allow Bell to charge smaller companies on a pay-per-use basis. So yes, we are becoming pinkified here, but the pinko side is the side that wants to keep prices lower (in the short term for a specific group — see Economics in… Read more »

Junius
Junius
9 years ago

#170 IT_Pro,

I agree. BP on Meth is on fire today.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
9 years ago

Thanks to that lawsuit against him, Jurock now lays low and does his shit from home.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7dVD4TICvg

You can't hide forever, Ozzie!

IT__Pro
IT__Pro
9 years ago

@Best place on meth:
You're crackin' me up today

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
9 years ago

What I thought was going to be a market update on the Fraser Valley turned out to be another fear-mongering piece from yet another low life realtor complete with scary camera angles.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ0XouOE4TQ

Seriously, I fucking hate these people. I have more respect for the local gangsters.

4444
4444
9 years ago

mike stew, today is Chinese new year, you picked one fvck of a day to provoke me with your cheap attempt at some free exposure.

I have placed a curse on you…..

Real estate will be your vehicle to poverty.

444444444444444444444444444444444444444

VHB
VHB
9 years ago

I don't doubt MS's anecdotes. The market in WV VW, VE, Richmond, and BU is hot.

But outside of that it is not. Kelowna and VI are already toast, all would agree. Now the suburbs are cold. It is getting closer to the core.

knock knock

Mike Stew got run ou
Mike Stew got run ou
9 years ago

Seriously Mike Stewart how come you don't work in film anymore?

VHB
VHB
9 years ago

February 2011 month-end projections

Days elapsed so far 3

Days remaining 17

5 Day Moving Average: Sales 142

5 Day Moving Average: Listings 285

SALES

Sales so far 461

Projection for rest of month 2421

Projected month end total 2882 +/- 659

NEW LISTINGS

Listings so far 884

Projection for rest of month 4852

Projected month end total 5736 +/- 576

Sell-list so far 52.1%

Projected month-end sell-list 50.2%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Inventory as of February 3, 2011 11342

MoI at this sales pace 3.94

Inventory is growing quickly. We have a shot at a 2-party month!