But, it’s different here!
Why did Canada’s housing market not suffer (yet) as much as the US? The media will tell you it’s our top-notch banks, prudent lending system and strong fundamentals. But take a close look at the graph below:
The US and Canada both had an uninterrupted housing boom that lasted 7 years, with US starting and ending roughly 2 years before Canada. After US banks began failing and world stock markets collapsed in Oct 2008, unprecedented stimulus measures were taken simultaneously by Canada and US.
The key point the above graph illustrates is that by the time stimulus was started, US home prices had already been falling for 3 years while Canada had just started their decline 1 year prior. As a result of the shorter stimulus response time in Canada, our housing prices and banks took a smaller hit.
Notice how similar the effects of this stimulus have been to home prices in both countries. By slamming interest rates to the floor, injecting $110 billion into Canadian banks ($65B from the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program and $45B from Bank of Canada) and creating home buyer incentives (US), housing demand was dragged forward and created a temporary rally in home prices. Even more interesting is how the stimulus effects have started to wear off at the same time in both countries.
And are our banks really more prudent than those in the US? As Ben Rabidoux noted on his blog, take a look at the bank leverage ratios (courtesy of Eric Sprott):
The media is right – it’s different here. It’s worse.
submitted by: crashcow
February 14th, 2011 at 4:21 pm 1
BOMBSHELL……..GET THIS….IT CHANGES EVERYTHING
Judge Finds MERS Has No Right To Transfer Mortgages, Finds Entire MERS Process Illegal
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/judge-finds-mers…
Complete Memorandum Decision By Judge Grossman Finding MERS Transfers Illegal
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/complete-memoran…
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February 14th, 2011 at 4:24 pm 2
"…And with MERS now found to be a fraud, we expect MERS Commercial authority to be likewise eliminated. Which means that the entire US mortgage market, both residential and commercial, is a lie, and built on fraudulent foundations, and that every single MERS-mediated transaction will likely have to be unwound…."
SEE POST ABOVE
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February 14th, 2011 at 4:32 pm 3
So does that mean as both America and Canada fall back down… Canada will just keep falling while America levels off?
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February 14th, 2011 at 4:38 pm 4
Data and graphs, nothing makes bulls scatter faster. Here's another view of the same effect, CS and Teranet for three cities in each country, referenced to the earliest date that data is complete for all six: Feb 1999.
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/9392/bullkrypton…
The American cities include data from Feb 1997. Since Van was still riding high on the wave of mid-Nineties HK appreciation in my opinion this picture significantly understates the magnitude of its peak.
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February 14th, 2011 at 9:43 pm 5
@fixie guy:
Can't apply Yankee's plight here because Vancouver RE market is dictated by wealthy Chinese not Caucasian buyers who already been priced out yrs ago and renting for the rest of their life.
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February 14th, 2011 at 9:45 pm 6
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/seat…
It's different here, does this sound familiar?
"Two local economists were quoted all but guaranteeing that Seattle was immune “if history is any indication.” A market-risk index from PMI Mortgage Insurance gave the odds of Seattle prices dropping at a negligible 11 percent."
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February 14th, 2011 at 11:30 pm 7
Housing Crash Is Hitting Cities Once Thought to Be Stable
The rolling real estate crash that ravaged Florida and the Southwest is delivering a new wave of distress to communities once thought to be immune — economically diversified cities where the boom was relatively restrained.
In the last year, home prices in Seattle had a bigger decline than in Las Vegas. Minneapolis dropped more than Miami, and Atlanta fared worse than Phoenix.
The bubble markets, where builders, buyers and banks ran wild, began falling first, economists say, so they are close to the end of the cycle and in some cases on their way back up. Nearly everyone else still has another season of pain.
“When I go out and talk to people around town, they say, ‘Wow, I thought we were going to have a 12 percent correction and call it a day,’ ” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the housing site Zillow, which is based in Seattle. “But this thing just keeps on going.”
Seattle is down about 31 percent from its mid-2007 peak and, according to Zillow’s calculations, still has as much as 10 percent to fall.
Mr. Humphries estimates the rest of the country will drop a further 5 and 7 percent as last year’s tax credits for home buyers continue to wear off.
“We went into 2010 feeling gangbusters, thanks to Uncle Sam,” Mr. Humphries said. “We ended it feeling penniless, with home values tanking.”
The fact that even a fairly prosperous area like Seattle was ensnared in the downturn shows just how much of a national phenomenon the crash has been.
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February 14th, 2011 at 11:31 pm 8
There are many Chinese on this board and likely many Chinese realtors. I'm sick of people saying it isn't the Chinese that are causing the strength in our house prices. It simply isn't true. Every other place in Canada and BC are suffering price declines.
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February 14th, 2011 at 11:51 pm 9
Sorry but they have little to do with it. You are being sucked in by Realtor spin. It is the same as every other real estate bubble from Iceland to the US. It is caused by locals of every race.
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February 15th, 2011 at 12:43 am 10
@CRASH JPMorgan-Chase – Buy Silver:
In general I agree with the bears on this blog. However what I do not agree with is the bears perspective on the asian effect. Asian buyers are MOST DEFINATELY driving up prices here. Especially on the west-side and Richmond. However, I know a number of cases of underused houses purchased by asian buyers:
1) My friends apartment was just purchased by foreign buyers and he was kicked out for "renovations"
2) I know a 20 year old university student who's rich aunt from Asia just bought him a house in North Burnaby. He manages the tennants and when he can afford to pay the 70% mortgage, he gets the house. Oh, and I should mention they own two more houses in Burnaby, one of them a $1 million dollar house occupied only by the Aunts 18 year old kid.
3) Huge house in Fraser Heights in Surray occupied by a 90 year old Grandma. The 18 year old daughter used to live there, but she wanted to live close to UBC so they bought her a condo out there.
So these are examples of rich asian businespeople buying MULTIPLE houses in the lower mainland. Cash is no object, they are rolling in it. I know some of the families and a few years ago they were lower middle class. Now they are filthy rich.
So vote me down into obvlivion bears, but these types of scenarios are all around us in Vancouver. Get your head out of the sand. As the other poster mentioned, why is housing dropping all around us except for here. It is primarily driven by the rich asians and that is pretty much irrefuteable
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:01 am 11
San Diego is approaching affordable again:
Shambling Towards Affordability: Year-End 2010 Edition
Hooray for everything!
You know what San Diego's problem is? No rich Asians
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:06 am 12
Stunning graph. Scary table. Truck sucks.
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:07 am 13
Dang, I must be sleep-deprived. I'll stop posting for a week now. Meant to write, "Stunning graph. Scary table. Truth sucks."
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:19 am 14
Looks like a staff writer at the Vancouver Sun has been reading your blog: <a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+rest+show+sharp+differences+housing+price+changes/4278542/story.html#ixzz1E34zxczG" rel="nofollow">Metro Vancouver, rest of B.C. show sharp differences in housing price changes".
The story shows that, contrary to the BCREA headline discussed here earlier, prices have fallen significantly in much of B.C.
Note the side panel link to a story on Seattle prices.
Seems a good article. fwiw, the rich Chinese don't feature in the article at all; wots up with that eh?.
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:39 am 15
@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps:
"It’s different here, does this sound familiar?"
How is "it's different here" a significantly different argument to "it's the same here"?
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:56 am 16
@International slum village – with regard to your post about Europa having high strata fees due to flooding, shouldn't the strata place a lien on the unit that caused the flooding to recover the repair costs? I thought in cases like you cited the strata even has the power to force the sell of the unit and collect its money which is also ranked higher than a mortgage??
Anyone know the answer to this?
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:58 am 17
@Renting:
Suckered in by realtor spin? So you are saying that all of the realtors are lying when they say that their current clientel on the westside and in richmond are primarily offshore asian buyers?
Please, come up with at least some annecdotal evidence that what you are saying is correct before opening your mouth. If offshore asian buyers aren't driving up prices, then prove it! Because the evidence shows that they ARE the primary driver of the current waive of price increases.
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:00 am 18
@jesse
San diego is not cheap, I check prices for houses and multiapartments regularly. Cap rates are at 6% and below. Of course, compaired to the best place on earth it is cheaper, but then, they dont get our rain.
San diego is only cheap if you take a 0 down 30year morgage and stay in the house for very long time. Morgage payments are very affordable with the low interest rates we have. It is definitly not cheap for a cash buyer.
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:07 am 19
Lots of discussion regarding US/Vancouver comparisons on all the blogs.
Here's a great story:
“I put on my Vancouver real-estate price calculator and made a guess… I had guessed over 10 times too much.”
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1QD
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:10 am 20
My anedotal evidence suggests that chinese indeed are driving the vancouver market.
I dont know if they are offshore or local but there is a lot of activity driven primarly by them.
Builders I know tell me that now the chinese are selling houses mainly to each other in vancouver. What happens is that they are buying old houses, tearign down and building new houses for the chinese buyers and tastes.
Since you can only avoid HST on the first house only as a first time buyer, there are lots of schemes going on to avoid paying HST, hence a biger involvment of people and higher activity.
I find it regretable that the city does not have a betetr say on the preservation of the exterior aspect of some of the old architecture we have left, as I have seen some really beautiful old houses torn down and replaced with huge ugly manisons.
I also hope that some smart people will finally start looking on the HST scam that is going on with the new constructions and the so called first time buyers.
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:25 am 21
@Anonymouse:
Why are all of your posts phrased as smarmy, contrarian questions that contribute nothing to the discussion?
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:32 am 22
@Dan in Calgary:
"Seems a good article. fwiw, the rich Chinese don’t feature in the article at all; wots up with that eh?."
Actually, they are indirectly referenced:
"Muir said Vancouver is doing better because its economy is more diversified that the rest of B.C. and also has the advantage of significantly more immigrants, many of whom are in the investor class and typically buy a house upon arrival."
This is why the Landcor etc. data shows few true offshore owners: getting Canadian citizenship is a normal part of investing here, as it is easy and provides security in case things go sideways back home.
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:35 am 23
@900kCrackHouse:
It is not possible to prove the negative, moron.
Why has there been not even one rich asian offshore house buyer shown on TV? NOt even one! All you had was the media stunt witht he local chinese realtors. Where are their clients? Lets have just one photo and interview of an offshore chinese buyer. If I saw that, I may believe the hype. Until then, there is no evidence.
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:51 am 24
@WFT?: What you just said makes no sense. There have been lots of articles about offshore asian people buying houses in Vancouver. There have been lots of talk from realtors about this. Why do you think realtors are not suffering right now? Asian buyers. Who is buying all of the houses in West Van – Asian buyers. My wife's prof in West-side Van gets weekly offers to buy out his old house because they want to tear it down. Its crazy over there.
Open your eyes. I'm not saying tonnes of houses in Surrey are being purchased by asian buyers, but the prices cascade out from the epicenter of the asian buying. Look at Austrailia, they are dealing with the same problem and have had to bring in restrictions on foreign buyers.
I guess in your mind a buyer isn't foreign if he sends his wife or kids over and under the "investment class" of immigration where all they have to do is buy a house, and then they can use the health care and good education systems and they have an insurance policy in case things go wrong in China. This isn't a foreign buyer in your mind because they are landed immigrants? Come on man, get out and talk to people so you can figure out what is really going on.
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:52 am 25
@WFT?: And whats with the Moron comment? People of little intelligence resort to calling people Morons when they don't have a real argument to justify their case.
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:53 am 26
Rich Asian buyers purchasing luxury homes doesn't drive the market, which is still 94% local residents.
However, the story of rich Asian buyers purchasing luxury homes provides more evidence to local greater fools that trees can grow to the sky and Van RE will go up forever, so they all rush out and bid up RE even more.
The impact of Asian buyers is primarily psychological, and locals at the end of a seven-year bubble don't need much convincing to run out and load up on more RE.
Very soon we'll hit another affordability wall at which only the rich could possibly buy in, and then everyone will see how little real impact rich Asians have on the overall market.
Sales will drop precipitously, then another price correction will begin. This time, however, rates are already low and there won't be more room for another rate drop to goose the credit bubble one more time.
Instead of trolling here, pumpers should be out making as much money as they can, while they can. The gravy train is going to come to an abrupt end, and other high-paying, no-talent jobs are hard to come by.
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:54 am 27
Speaking of stimulus, how do you think the Olympic Village Sydney Crosby suite got the cum stains in first place?
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:56 am 28
@900kCrackHouse:
It is not possible to prove the negative. Look it up. Or take a course of logic.
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:57 am 29
@betamax: What is your definition of a local resident? I assume investor class immigrants still fit this profile?
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:57 am 30
@kuboo:
The cum stains are worth at leaset a $100,000 price premium.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:01 am 31
@WFT?: Then turn it into a positive. "Local buyers (excluding recent immigrants that have their PR card) are the main source of the current price increases, building activity, and sales going on in Vancouver and Richmond"
Now prove it, or at least provide some annecdotal evidence.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:01 am 32
@paradox: "My anedotal evidence suggests that chinese indeed are driving the vancouver market."
Problem is, the market is not being driven at all right now…it's been on life support for 9 months in terms of sales. Also, Metro Vancouver Jan YoY BENCHMARK price increase is only 2%…in a couple months we'll be in red numbers.
Pass the toe tags.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:01 am 33
@WFT?:
"It is not possible to prove the negative. "
Of course it's possible, especially in the particular case of proving offshore buyers aren't driving up the market.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:06 am 34
@900kCrackHouse:
Ok, and? And again, I ask, so what? So they drive up some prices in some areas more than others? Do you believe they will continue to drive up prices, even as they fall elsewhere in Canada and Vancouver, like they did in 2008?
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:06 am 35
Anecdote? I have one.
A couple of weeks ago I was surprised to hear that my uncle and aunt sold their house at $680K. Sold in 2 days. Yup, by that price it was most certainly a dump. My aunt was complaining that she should've asked $720K, and it sold too quickly (meaning the buyer must've gotten a steal)! The new owners had no intention of living there so my uncle and aunt were living there for $600 a month. Wow. Who got the steal here? Live in the same place for $600 and pockets $680K. They bought their house a long time ago for $180K and it's paid for.
I chimed in saying they were very smart to sell at this time. Then they were talking to my parents about wanting to buy back in. I said that would be extremely stupid. They started going off on the standard fool's logic of how the new house they were looking at has a rental suite on the main floor that current has a tenant, putting money in the bank doesn't get much interest, and some others. My parents tried to tell them it's a bad idea, but that only made them that much more certain they need to buy back in.
Days later they bought a smaller (but newer) home, NOT closer to work as they originally planned, and it was missing some other requirements that they talked about earlier. And this for $800K! Now they have to deal with a tenant.
They are already IN retirement age (~65 years old), and are Chinese. After living here for 25+ years, their English is still heavily accented (I have trouble understanding it) and would probably be perceived as an "offshore rich Chinese buyer who paid all cash". No, they are certainly not offshore, nor rich, nor paid all cash (still needs a small mortgage).
It's well known the Chinese have an affinity to real estate, but my feeling is that it's just a bunch of foolish ones trading houses with each other right now, and since they have equity from purchasing their homes earlier (due to the same affinity for RE), they are able to "bid up" a little. Outsiders think they are offshore because their English sucks. They think they need to buy or else be priced out forever by those new offshore Chinese!!
Yes, there are offshore rich Chinese who buys million dollar homes, but the stories ABOUT the minority spreads a LOT faster than the majority of locals who buy so it makes it seem like they are a majority. You have 1 buyer who overpays, and the 1 realtor tells 10 of his buddies, and each of his buddies tells 10 of their clients, and each of their client tells 10 of their friends. And the story is affirmed when some of those friends get together and they all heard about some guy from China paid $x over asking. This is not even counting all those local Chinese who are mistaken as rich offshore Chinese! Stories of a local Caucasian buying a home at 5% off asking is not news. So suddenly only the Chinese are buying. And then you see the staged helicopter Chinese overlords who pay to buy the whole White Rock!
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:09 am 36
#33 Anonymouse Says:"Of course it’s possible, especially in the particular case of proving offshore buyers aren’t driving up the market."
It's impossible to prove invisible robots aren't trying to steal my luggage, so they must be. How many angels can dance on a bull's head?
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:09 am 37
@Anonymouse:
"It's the same here" is premised on "here" being subject to the same laws of economics as everywhere else. "It's different here" is premised on "here" being exempt from the laws of economics.
Do you need me to draw you a picture?
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:11 am 38
@WFT?: I am going to float the concept of a "Bear Pimp" (opposite of a "Realtor Pimp"). This is a type of bear who irrationally pumps the notion that it is only local buyers that are driving up the cost of housing in Vancouver. Real-pimps and bear pimps are pretty similar, they occupy different ends of the spectrum.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:12 am 39
@paradox: "Cap rates are at 6% and below."
Yes it's approaching affordable again. In terms of price to income ratios, it's not looking horrible. Toscano thinks rents have been under some downwards pressure which is temporarily suppressing cap rates.
I wouldn't be surprised to see prices come 15-20% down in real terms on SD detached over the next 3-4 years, but at this point it's only maybe $100K being thrown in the toilet instead of $300-400K. For some people, while it's not necessarily a good investment, they are willing to fork over the premium anyways.
And as you stated, if they don't mind staying put they can get decent mortgage rates these days. As long as they stay put.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:14 am 40
@900kCrackHouse, "If offshore asian buyers aren’t driving up prices, then prove it!"
When I was a kid we had a lot of elephant jokes. One was where you would be snapping your fingers repeatedly and someone would say, "hey, why are you snapping your fingers?" and you would answer "to keep the elephants jumping out of the trees". After a pause, you would ask "do you see any elephants jumping out of the trees?". After another pause, you would ask rhetorically " … just goes to show that snapping my fingers works, doesn't it?".
The "snapping fingers to keep elephants out of trees" anecdotal-evidence based thought train is pretty much on par with yours.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:16 am 41
@alx: Holy crap we must know the same people! I know of at least 4 cases that are verbatim what you're describing. I posted about my friend's specific case here last month.
They don't have mortgage marketing pamphlets translated into Asian languages for nothing.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:17 am 42
@Devore: I agree that at some point things are going to hit a breaking point, and it could get pretty ugly in Vancouver.
However, I have no predictions as to when. This could go on for a few more years depending on the flow of offshore money, immigration, and inflation due to the printing of large amounts of money. Money is getting really debased. It would be foolish of me to not have my money in hard assets right now. This is why I invest in things like gold, precious metals, and am looking at property in the US.
So the day of reckoning is coming, but it may be farther out than most bears on this blog expect.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:28 am 43
Of course 900Kcrackhouse is 100% correct.
I used to live near Oakridge. Well this house nearby at 196 W.44th just sold in 8 days over asking at 1.778 million on Feb 8, 2011. It is a 62 year old no update house on a 49 X 123 ft lot, looks like tear down.
Can anyone tell me who would buy this house for this kind of money? 1.778 million is a lot of money, for locals this is after tax money needed to buy this plus paying interest to the banks. Is it locals wanting a decent neighborhood because interest rates are still low? Or is this house going be torn down and an ugly mansion going to be build and or who is the market for these types of houses?
Do you bears have any answers?
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:28 am 44
@WFT?: "Until then, there is no evidence."
Just because there is no objective evidence doesn't mean the supposition is false. Remain skeptical but, dude, there are locals who have derived their incomes and savings offshore and have bought property with it. You don't have to believe me but I see it first-hand.
What should be up for debate is how much foreign capital is affecting current prices, and (more importantly) how much of it is required to keep prices high. I don't think either of these estimates are difficult to make.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:31 am 45
@Oakridge renter: "Can anyone tell me who would buy this house for this kind of money?"
I'd wager those prices are being driven by spec builders/flippers who are accepting bargain basement margins and attempting to sell to the "endless stream" of rich Chinese immigrants.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:33 am 46
@Devore:
What exactly are the 'laws' of economics? It's not really a science now is it. So trying to prove "It's the same here" is futile, because it'll never be the same. This is where bears like you lose the plot, since you base your unyielding analysis on these supposed 'laws' and faulty comparisons. A little less hubris would serve you well, things are never as certain as you think.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:35 am 47
Rennie farts: "You can only open a third time once"
Cue laughter.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Olympic+Vill…
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:37 am 48
Caught this on Kiro news last night:
Mason County Residents Fight Rising Property Taxes
http://www.kirotv.com/money/26862359/detail.html
My headline is "You're poorer than you think"
Couple a housing bubble popping, and state/county governments needing money bad, and you have the perfect storm of being completely house poor.
A great read.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:38 am 49
@Troll: "things are never as certain as you think"
Less FUD, more data please. Your statements are falling into the same set of platitudes as the comments you criticize. You're better than that!
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:38 am 50
@jesse: What should be up for debate is how much foreign capital is affecting current prices, and (more importantly) how much of it is required to keep prices high. I don’t think either of these estimates are difficult to make. Agree with the first point, both in terms of actual foreign capital and the psychological effect on locals of that capital. It's not 100% as some realtors claim, but it's also not 0% as bear pimps keep claiming. Disagree with the final point, if you're holding out on some data, please share. Seems to me that good public data is scarce.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:45 am 51
@Troll:
"It’s not really a science now is it."
Umm, actually it is, but thanks for coming out to play anyhow. I'm glad your fact-checking is as accurate as ever.
From Dictionary.com
sci·ence
/ˈsaɪəns/ Show Spelled[sahy-uhns]
–noun
1.
a branch of knowledge or study dealing with a body of facts or truths systematically arranged and showing the operation of general laws: the mathematical sciences.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:49 am 52
@jesse:
I wish I had more data to share, I look at the same stuff everybody else does. I think today's post and the recent graph showing %overlist with price changes is outstanding stuff. We know the market is overvalued and looks to be at risk of a correction, I think almost anyone who seriously looks at the numbers should be coming to the same conclusion. Continually ranting at home salespeople does nothing to further that insight. But beyond that things get very murky, very fast. How much of a correction is likely? When is it likely to begin and how long would it take? Are we looking at a sharp drop or years of stagnation? Anyone who tries to answer these questions invariably ends up comparing our market to some other market which fits their bias. That's fine, but recognize it for what it is, an imperfect guesstimate at best. There's just too many unknowns.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:49 am 53
@alx: It’s well known the Chinese have an affinity to real estate, but my feeling is that it’s just a bunch of foolish ones trading houses with each other right now,
Interesting… only problem here is that there are too many Chinese in this city and they can run with it for a while due to their believes and habits.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:56 am 54
@Troll: "If you’re holding out on some data, please share."
The way I've tackled the problem in the past is to look at income derived from known sources, i.e. tax receipts and StatsCan data, look at current prices, and determine how much additional aggregate income, from foreign sources or otherwise undeclared, is required to facilitate new buyers financing property purchases.
I don't have the data in front of me, but looking at the whole region with over 2MM residents, the majority of whom don't have significant ties to other countries or organized crime for income, I calculated it to be a significant amount of cash flows on an ongoing basis. That debt levels in BC have increased substantially in the past few years is evidence capital is being supplied through lending, not through foreign direct investment.
It's entirely possible the enclaves of Van West and Richmond will remain with high prices, as immigrant capital buys exclusively in these areas at any cost. I'm looking at the entire region for a better picture, for benefit of the rest of us mortals.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:58 am 55
@mflat:
>>>Marketer Bob Rennie, who has been given the task of trying to sell the remaining 480 units in the village, said the small group of buyers is being used to test-market the new pricing structure to make sure it’s not too high.
“We’ve been doing market testing with focus groups and consumers and now that we are getting close to the finish line we are testing with real people,” he said.
“I need real specimens so I can assure the receiver … that my promise of selling 60 units in 60 days will come true. This is real market testing and it would be irresponsible to the taxpayer for me not to do this.”<<<
That's great Bob, you can put the crash test dummies back in the closet now, or on the helijet or where ever they're kept.
And from what I've heard, there are "real specimens" in the units already.
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:01 am 56
@alx: Great anecdote. The key is that you now have a near retired couple who now have a mortgage on a property. Great move??? Some would say yes. After all, they now have income from a tenant. ***insert eye roll here***
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:04 am 57
@900kCrackHouse:
"…inflation due to the printing of large amounts of money…"
Inflation drives up interest rates, which drives down real estate prices. In the short to medium term, RE prices move in the opposite direction to inflation, with a lag.
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:05 am 58
@anonymouse, "How is “it’s different here” a significantly different argument to “it’s the same here”?"
Sir William Osler, famous Canadian physician, and the first Professor of Medicine at Johns Hopkins Hospital, called the "father of modern medicine". He even has a society named after him. One of this famous sayings to young medical students, still often quoted in the profession is:
"Common things occur most commonly."
Applies to just about everything, not just medical diagnoses. Applies to your question too. We can expect "it's the same here" with great confidence. "It's different here" needs considerable justification.
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:14 am 59
@Oakridge renter: If your story were from CA or FL in 2005-6 I'd say that, some group, probably including a realtor and a loan broker, arranged for a straw buyer who got a kick back to sign the falsified loan docs, the house was already owned by someone in the group, so the group took the money and split it among themselves, then moved onto the house in their holdings that had sold the longest time ago. (Some of these groups are finally going to jail, btw.)
I don't know about Vancouver on this, but in the U.S. if there is a mortgage, it's a public document. Maybe someone else can help on how or if you can (in a few weeks) go look up who and for how much the house was mortgaged for. If you are lucky the buyer's name will be a bit distinctive and you can social media them, see if they are for real. It's a bit of legwork, but it might answer your question.
Or you can call it a blow-off top and go back to your life.
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:16 am 60
@Oakridge renter: Regarding who buys those 1.778M house, I would wager that it's the family from 2 blocks away who just sold their 1.688M, 80-year-old house.
@Stradivarius: Yes, they can most certainly go at it for quite some time. But I revel in the fact that my rent does not change much by their behaviour. I can wait. Forever if I have to, as long as renting is cheaper than owning.
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:23 am 61
Realtors are being wickedly mischievious. Check out this 50X125 lot near C&W Hospital.
I reckon this is listed at 50% under comps in order to generate a bidding frenzy. Bloody hell.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:27 am 62
@Troll:
50% real near certainty. Nominal, depends.
These questions are unanswerable, just as similar questions about the stock market are unanswerable. What is answerable is that it just isn't possible for prices to remain as far out of proportion to rents as they are here today. And the likelihood of rents rising to close that gap is just about nil.
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:27 am 63
@900kCrackHouse:
You are in need of logic 101. Here is a lesson for you.
"In some circumstances it can be safely assumed that if a certain event had occurred, evidence of it could be discovered by qualified investigators. In such circumstances it is perfectly reasonable to take the absence of proof of its occurrence as positive proof of its non-occurrence." – Introduction to Logic, Copi, 1953, Page 95
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:27 am 64
@N: I'm talking about invisible inflation – most of it doesn't show up in the stats, so then it doesn't drive up prices that much.
We somehow seem to always have 2% inflation every year even though over the last 10 years commodities including food have more than doubled, houses have more than doubled, etc. Interest rates are way under the true rate of inflation, and I'm not sure that this is going to change any time soon.
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:48 am 65
@900kCrackHouse:
House prices (more exactly land prices because that's most of the variation in house prices) don't count in consumer price inflation because they are not consumables. It's rent that's the consumable.
Oil was about 40 USD 10 years ago and is now about 80 USD, i.e. it's doubled. But the CAD has gone from USD .65 to USD 1.00 today. So oil has gone from 60 CAD to 80 CAD over 10 years, which is just over 2% per year. I think you will find other commodities to be similar. Since the CAD is strongly tied to commodity prices, there is much less variation in commodities in CAD than in USD.
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:53 am 66
@Drachen: Thanks for the insight grad boy, nice to know you can read a dictionary son.
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February 15th, 2011 at 4:53 am 67
@patriotz: "And the likelihood of rents rising to close that gap is just about nil."
Let's not forget that rents dominate the core CPI weighting, so any drastic increase in rents would surely be paired with a spike in interest rates…and we all know what that would do to RE prices.
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:04 am 68
@Troll:
That is an excellent retort, about as useful and accurate as anything you have to say.
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:11 am 69
@Troll:
The hubris is all on your side, believing it's different here.
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:12 am 70
@Drachen: Just go back into hiding and keep studying the difference between real and nominal. I'm sure Dave will be around soon so you can rant at him.
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:18 am 71
@Troll:
Then compare it to some market than favours YOUR bias? All you're ever said is "we don't know for sure, therefore we should stop talking", throw your hands up, and criticize anyone who says, "hey, Vancouver isn't really that different from any other city on the planet, or country, or continent".
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:37 am 72
@Devore:
Do you want to stop be disingenous anytime soon? Don't put words in my mouth. Considering the uncertainty and volatility in the economy in general and our market in particular, I don't think it's very controversial to claim that ascertaining truth and making predictions is difficult if not impossible. But if you got it all figured out based on your 'laws of economics', more power to ya. I don't think you know the meaning of hubris if you don't think your attitude exemplifies it. And I do take issue with the position that Vancouver is exactly the same as any other real estate market in the world. Should be self evident no? Every market has differences in terms of politics, the economy, timing, geography, culture….you name it. Are there similarities? Sure. But mindlessly saying, "Well Detroit is a shithole and well it's not different here and anyone who says otherwise must be a realtor, so we can expect Vancouver to look like Detroit after a RE correction" is a bear pimp. Deal with it.
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:38 am 73
That leverage is crazy. The Bush Admin's exemption to increase from 15:1 to 30:1 is what destroyed Lehman, Morgan Stanley, et al.
But on a sunnier note, I found this:
From: http://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=6781…
Although, these numbers from 2007 don't jib with the numbers above, even considering that we have one more bank in the mix. Is that a holdings weighted average or just a flat out average? Maybe that's part of the discrepancy. A quick google search confirms that no one seems to agree on the actual numbers.
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:44 am 74
#71 Devore Says:"Then compare it to some market than favours YOUR bias?"
Sorry, far too concrete and open to examination. The name of the game when sowing uncertainty is never detail. 'If somewhere a market can be said to have stagnated, then no projections can be drawn from today's data on BC.' See? Easy.
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:47 am 75
Bill Gross, founder of the giant investment firm Pimco, has an intense rant in his latest monthly note to investors. Though he defends the work of his own firm, he attacks the broader finance industry:
"… A low or negative real interest rate for an "extended period of time" is the most devilish of all policy tools. And the asset class holder that it affects, or better yet, "infects," is the small saver and institutions such as insurance companies and pension funds that hold long-term fixed income assets."
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/02/15/1337799…
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:55 am 76
@fixie guy: Well, not surprisingly you got the motivation wrong, so your conclusions are wrong. Why don't you just pick one name to post under, make it easier to follow the conversation.
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:59 am 77
@WFT?: You need to get get out of school and get a grip on reality. What makes no logical sense is why you are quoting your logic 101 textbook on a real estate bear-board.
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February 15th, 2011 at 5:59 am 78
@Troll:
Wow! Talk about a straw-man argument (I'd provide a link to the definition, but I'm aware of your aversion to book learnin'). Read closely, Troll (by the way, you're sure living up to your name recently, aren't you?): Those of us in the bear camp are arguing that RE prices in Vancouver will fall dramatically over the next few years because similar conditions have produced precipitous drops, if not outright crashes, in every single market throughout all of recorded history. I defy you to find me just one historical example where price/rent and price/income multiples reached the current Canadian and Australian levels and did not subsequently fall at least 25%.
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:06 am 79
@patriotz: Other commodities? Like gold? silver? wheat? Oil averaged $21/barrel USD in 2001. Wheat was $126/tonne in 2001, and now is $359/tonne. Where are you getting your numbers from? Perhaps it would be better if you checked your facts before posting?
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:11 am 80
Way off topic here, but could someone fill me in on this talk about the Sidney Crosby suite?
I keep reading about how "well-used" it is, but couldn't google any references to Crosby and the olympic village that relate to all this babble.
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:15 am 81
@oneangryslav2: Well, first of all, not sure why you are including yourself in a camp with Fixie, BPOM, Drachen and the other dum dums? From what I've seen you seem a little smarter than that, but hey what do I know? Second, it's kind of humourous that you talk about precipitous drops and outright crashes and then in the next sentence mention a 25% decline? Really? 25%? That would still leave us with pretty high prices and if spread over 5 years would be a pretty mild correction. That would look totally different than a Florida style 50% crash. So how are those the same again?
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:24 am 82
@Troll: I asked you to read carefully, did I not? I wrote "at least 25%" giving you, thereby, a greater chance of refuting our claim.
You are correct, though, that a 25% drop in prices should not be considered precipitous, which is why my prediction for Vancouver is at least (there are those two words again!) a 50% drop (real) and close to that nominally.
Now, what about addressing the major point of my previous post?
P.S. I'm having t-shirts printed with "We are all fixie guy" written on the front.
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:27 am 83
@SourLemon:
I think that all this talk about the Crosby suite is just us kidding around and poking fun at the OV. And also satirising the fact that Rennie has made comments about the world class DNA from atheletes as a selling point, when actually that idea is quite gross.
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:29 am 84
#76 Troll Says: "Well, not surprisingly you got the motivation wrong, so your conclusions are wrong. Why don’t you just pick one name to post under, make it easier to follow the conversation."
Posted in reply to an accusation of content-less and unsupported supposition, that's either staggering unintended irony or brilliant dry wit. Let's decide that with more data, shall we?
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:29 am 85
@Troll:
Guys like you also believed that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction because some on TV told you that they did.
Show me the rich asians! Until then, I prefer to live in the real world of evidence based conculsions not the world of realtor fantasy and delusion.
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:31 am 86
@paradox:
How can you avoid paying the HST just because you are a first-time buyer? I am not aware of this at all?
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:31 am 87
@900kCrackHouse:
You're right, I was looking at a graph of oil prices and got it wrong.
Gold and silver mean nothing for consumer prices.
The real point is that CPI is based on a basket defined by StatsCan, the greatest component by far of which is rents, which we all know haven't even kept up with CPI over the last decade. Interest rates, which are also in CPI, have declined significantly. So that means that yes the other components in CPI together have necessarily outpaced CPI. Including I'm sure food.
What I have a problem with is people who claim, or imply, that there's some plot to miscalculate CPI. It may not match your consumption profile, but it can't.
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:31 am 88
@900kCrackHouse:
My last post was directed at 900kCrackHouse who badly needs a lesson in logic but does not see how critical thinking can help him understand the world.
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:49 am 89
@oneangryslav2:
OK, so what is it? 25% or 50%? or something in between? or something more? I can't address your 'main' point, because it's incongruous. You say every similar market in RECORDED HISTORY has suffered a price crash and then follow it up with a prediction of at least 25% drop here. Well a 25% or even 30% drop does not constitute a crash, especially if stretched over multiple years. That's a '90s style Vancouver correction. And to boot we're already 5-10% down in real terms from the peak, so we're already a third of the way there. So how does that even remotely resemble what's happened in Phoenix or Detroit or Florida or Ireland or UK or Spain or Cali? So basically what you're saying is you're not sure if we'll have a crash or not, but we will likely have a correction. Can't argue with that position, why didn't you say that in the first place?
They already exist. http://www.buycoolshirts.com/imwithstupid.html
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:53 am 90
@Troll: Are you being willfully ignorant or just a dick? I'm not being incongruous at all; you're just being difficult.
Let's start with this (and I'll end with it, since you won't be able to make good): I defy you to find me just one historical example where price/rent and price/income multiples reached the current Canadian and Australian levels and did not subsequently fall at least 25%.
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:56 am 91
#89 Troll Says: "And to boot we’re already 5-10% down in real terms from the peak, so we’re already a third of the way there."
You can't even get things in your favour right? Crawl back into your basement, jackass:
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx
Quit feeding this asshole's illness.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:01 am 92
The "Asian" argument is driving me crazy.
We all agree that people of Asian ancestry, both born in Canada and born elsewhere, are a massive demographic in Vancouver. Of course they're affecting the market.
But Rich and Asian doesn't actually say anything new or interesting. In my neighbourhood (Marpole), there is a developer of Asian ancestry who is 1) Rich, 2) Buying many houses and 3) local. His income is local, and driven by the housing bubble. His business will be hurt in a correction.
My Asian landlord is an offshore investor. This doesn't make him immune in the pocketbook to the fact that rents are pathetic vs. real estate; he stopped buying new investments in Vancouver some years ago.
Yes. Rich people who speak Mandarin are in the market and the market is expensive. But correlation does not show causation, and it *certainly* doesn't prove sustainability. No persons or economic systems are capable of indefinitely inflating real estate so grossly over rental income, forever and ever, amen.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:04 am 93
@oneangryslav2: Well I'm not ignorant, so I guess I'm a dick.
To answer your question, I don't know of any. So what, how does that refute my point or validate yours? I said that a correction is likely because the market is overvalued. Maybe the problem is that you define a crash as starting at 25%. I don't. If we only see a 25% correction there are going to be a lot of disappointed bears and we won't be like Florida at all. If you are so sure of yourself that we are in for an epic crash, then why hedge your bets with 'at least 25%', just come out and say it's going to be scorched earth 50%+? That's why you're incongruous. I think that outcome is unlikely, unless there are some drastic changes in the economy and/or interest rates.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:10 am 94
@Troll: If we see a 25% correction there will be a lot of disappointed bulls too. That is a big hit to many homeowners.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:13 am 95
@fixie guy: Hey dipshit, what stats are you pointing to? Canada wide, Vancouver, SFH, apartment what? You just post a random link and that makes your point? Teranet is good but those stats are also a couple months behind. Whether you like it or not, GVREB benchmarks in many areas and segments are down up to 5% over the past year which in real terms is about 7%. Oh shit, never mind you don't know the difference between nominal and real. Or how to interpret stats.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:18 am 96
@patriotz: Yes, agreed that CPI looks at monthly costs to service an asset rather than what the price of that asset is. Gold and silver are assets, they have nothing to do with CPI, but they do provide some insight into how the value of money has been debased. Debasement of money doesn't necessarily show up in the CPI. There are a lot of good arguments made by well regarded economists that many of the CPI indexes in the world are undercalling the true rate of inflation. Gold doesn't lie.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:19 am 97
@Anonymous:
"Disappointed" is a pretty polite way of saying "wiped out".
Just look back to when markets like California and Florida had declined 25% in the current bust. Blood was flowing, big time.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:23 am 98
@Absinthe: The argument is not that asians are effecting the market. The argument is that offshore money that is coming from new immigrants or immigrant investors is effecting the marketplace. During a business transaction or when talking to ones acquaintences one can usually get a pretty good idea whether the person is an "asian local" or a recent immigrant. We're all aware that people can live here for 20 years and still not speak english or drive a car properly. We're not talking today about the rich asian that has lived here for 20 years so I venture to say your point is somewhat irrelevant.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:28 am 99
#95 Troll Says: "@fixie guy: Hey dipshit, what stats are you pointing to? Canada wide, Vancouver, SFH, apartment what?"
Do you guys need any more proof this guy's a useless jackass? No stat on Teranet supports his argument, it's a 'couple months behind' because it's a rolling multi-month metric, and it's the best for house pricing in Canada. FFS, for post 95 to be make any sense requires the market dropped 15% in two months, which is exactly the opposite of the anti-crash argument he was trying to establish.
Even Troll isn't stupid enough to miss this, which means he's only here to stir shit. Mod him over to the kid's section so the adults can talk.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:35 am 100
@fixie guy: Do you guys need any more proof [Troll is] a useless jackass?
No, we don't. Neither should you. Just vote him down and move on…
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:41 am 101
@900kCrackHouse:
Yes they are lying
I have friends on the Westside and they are not seeing it. A friend builds on the Westside and he isn't seeing it. I am frequestly on the Westside and I am not seeing it.
There is your anecdotal evidence.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:46 am 102
@fixie guy:
What the hell are you talking about? It's not even English. What's your contention, that the market has gone up since the peak in April and you are using Teranet to try and prove that? Seriously, I know you like to argue, but this is really too much. Fact is, most local market segments are down about 5% since April. Deal with it. If you want to find one that went up or only went down 3% to try and discredit me, good for you. Doesn't change the truth which you can't seem to handle dum dum.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:47 am 103
@fixie guy: It's funny that you're arguing against the fact that the market is down. You don't even know which side you're on anymore!
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:48 am 104
Looks like a lot of listings rolling in today.
Looking forward to Paul's numbers.
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February 15th, 2011 at 7:51 am 105
@Oakridge renter:
Yes you are a lying realtor like your alter ego Crackhouse.
Real estate is slow again. I guess the memo went out to spin. You can tell with all the first time posters/pumpers showing up to talk about rich chinese.
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:06 am 106
@Renting: If I am a lieing realtor I guess that makes you a flying goat?
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:14 am 107
@patriotz: "What I have a problem with is people who claim, or imply, that there’s some plot to miscalculate CPI."
Inflation is running at 2%. YMMV. I see no conspiracy, only an ongoing and painful redistribution of capital due to an ongoing housing bubble.
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:20 am 108
@Drachen:
Who cares if economics is a science or not? You don't understand it either way.
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:22 am 109
Just got off the phone with a university friend of mine. Hs is a surgeon at Children's Hospital. He took just took a job in Bellevue, Washington. Said he couldn't have the life he wanted in Vancouver (private schools for kids, nice house with a yard in a good neighbourhood, vacations) because of the insane real estate prices here.
The pay is about the same as here but the real estate is way cheaper. He said that after all his hard work, he can "finally enjoy the good life".
I asked him if he feels guilty about the government subsidizing his education only for him to leave the country. He said "a little but I'm not sacrificing my children's future for it".
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:23 am 110
@Troll:
That's what happens when people get overly paranoid. They disagree with the source of information and vote it down without even taking it in.
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:23 am 111
@900kCrackHouse:
Gold is up $10 today, what does that say? What it says to me is that it's a volatile speculative commodity. Our metals bull quietly went away for a couple of weeks when his "savings" lost 10% of their value in 3 days. Or did the dollar become 10% more valuable? I don't know, I guess I am not smart enough to figure this out.
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:23 am 112
@WFT?:
BTW, I tried to convince him to just rent, but he said that he did not "want to throw money away".
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:29 am 113
$24 000 rebate on HST:
http://www.rev.gov.on.ca/en/refund/newhome/index….
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:31 am 114
OOps… The last link was for Ontario.
Here is one for BC:
http://www.mikeshafie.com/hst
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:48 am 115
"I asked him if he feels guilty about the government subsidizing his education only for him to leave the country. He said “a little but I’m not sacrificing my children’s future for it”.
He should be slapped with an exit tax.
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:50 am 116
Everything is sunshine & lollipops as long as home prices keep rising.
You will see how strong (or weak) Canadian banks are when prices
start pulling back again. This time, no more public bailouts!
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:56 am 117
@Devore: You have to ignore the daily volatility and look at the overall trend. If you want to know the contribution of the falling US dollar to the price of gold, take a look at kitco.com. Yes, gold is a speculative hard asset similar to Vancouver housing, and as Soros says, the ultimate asset bubble that like Vancouver housing is starting to become one of the things that rich asian investors are starting to collect.
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February 15th, 2011 at 9:41 am 118
New Listings 311
Price Changes 77
Sold Listings 153
12203
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February 15th, 2011 at 10:05 am 119
I asked him if he feels guilty about the government subsidizing his education only for him to leave the country. He said “a little but I’m not sacrificing my children’s future for it”.
He should be slapped with an exit tax.
*******
Let's try slapping all new entrants with an entrance tax. We know they will be using the services.
Oh wait, I guess that sounded too much like a "head tax."
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February 15th, 2011 at 10:11 am 120
Another net 150. Keep em coming!
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February 15th, 2011 at 10:27 am 121
Not sure if CREA's plea to stop any futher mortgage rules has been posted yet. The comments are great :http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/crea-urges-caution-over-more-mortgage-rule-changes/article1907692/
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February 15th, 2011 at 10:28 am 122
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
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February 15th, 2011 at 10:43 am 123
@Paulb
Some of the comments on that link is priceless.
4sdfgrt and a few are on there heavily defending the industry it seems.
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February 15th, 2011 at 10:51 am 124
@WFT?:
I don't doubt it. I've had two doctors move away on me in the last few years. And no wonder, how would you feel if you were a doctor, after years of studying, and all you can afford is some ugly 60 year old crack shack in East Van? YES!!! All those years of hard work REALLY paid off!
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February 15th, 2011 at 11:21 am 125
#123 SourLemon Says: "Some of the comments on that link is priceless."
The degree of animosity is surprising and encouraging. The message is getting out in spite of the MSM firewall.
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February 15th, 2011 at 11:42 am 126
Someone posted this 220K house in Florida on Garth's blog… This would go for 5 mil in Vancouver (except for the sunshine and palm trees).
Check out the pool and backyard. And one hour to Disneyworld!
http://tinyurl.com/4qlefog
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February 15th, 2011 at 11:49 am 127
A quick heads up.
The "ascent of money" documentary series is on Knowledge Network @ 8 (Feb15).
The episode is entitled "safe as house" and should be interesting.
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February 15th, 2011 at 11:54 am 128
Regarding Rich Asians.
I am white.
Married Asian (Hotty).
Her Parents Love real estate (apparently at any price…). Parents live in Richmond.
They just bought house #3 (2 in richmond) and this final one is one the west side.
It is a shit hole.
One speaks mandarin and cantonese and the other just cantonese.
They are not rich, but they have saved for a long time and have done ok.
They are not offshore (in fact, I the whitey have been to the PRC more in the last 30 years or 2 years than either of them).
Mom in law has never even been there, but she is convinced all the rich asians are coming here. LOL.
I like my in laws but they are soooo delusional.
The rationale for buying the place……get this……saving on taxes because now they wont have all that interest income.
I f*cking love vancouver.
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February 15th, 2011 at 11:56 am 129
@paulb: yup, thanks for the link paulb.
I agree with the previous poster who said that the comments are the best bit: people are getting it! One guy said it all: the CREA is asking the government to stay out of the mortgage market, which should mean we should scrap the CMHC!
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February 15th, 2011 at 12:20 pm 130
even an old bear now understands!
"I've been in a 3200 sq. ft. house for 19 years.
Like I said before, anybody who has lived in a place for a long time knows how you accumulate stuff over the years.
I've also got 6 motorcycles and 4 cars.
It will be a huge pain in the ass when I do eventually move.
I'm not going to move all that stuff into a rental for a couple of years, even if my house may drop a hundred grand in the next few years."
http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&…
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February 15th, 2011 at 12:37 pm 131
@van coffee:
Nuff said. Now back to the Remax crew to think up some more new rich chinese stories to post.
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:03 pm 132
February 2011 month-end projections
Days elapsed so far 11
Days remaining 9
5 Day Moving Average: Sales 154
5 Day Moving Average: Listings 304
SALES
Sales so far 1609
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1384
Projected month end total 2993 +/- 405
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 3162
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 2740
Projected month end total 5902 +/- 182
Sell-list so far 50.9%
Projected month-end sell-list 50.7%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of February 15, 2011 12203
MoI at this sales pace 4.08
Will we hit 6K new listings in February?? Highest in last 10 years was 2008, with 5260.
Median sales over last ten years is 2859. Might be close to that, but my guess is the March 18th effect will bring sales up.
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:11 pm 133
Nuff said. Now back to the Remax crew to think up some more new rich chinese stories to post.
Here is one:
http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/115999809.html
The guy was screwed by realtors, but it is not their fault: it is all thanks to the Rich Asians (properties are now going from $750 000 to 1 million $ in 3 months).
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:38 pm 134
The rich Asian myth is laughable.
Lunch today with my usually smart colleague:
HIM: An old-timer on my block just sold for $2.6 million. That's $400,000 over the asking price!
ME: Wow, that's crazy.
HIM: The mainland Chinese are buying up everything.
ME: What makes you say that?
HIM: They like the neighborhood. It has the best public schools.
ME: Oh. I would have thought someone paying nearly $3 million for an old-timer would have the money to pay for private school. Do you know who bought the house on your block?
HIM: Yeah, our neighbor says it's a couple with teenage kids who just sold their place a few blocks away.
ME: Are they from China?
HIM: No.
ME: Are they even Asian?
HIM: I don't think so.
ME: Ah.
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:40 pm 135
@Anonymous: So, buy big house because you have too much stuff? I've managed to downsize with every move I've made. Haven't used something in 8 months… can probably do without it. Haven't LOOKED at it in a year, get rid of post haste. WTF does a person do with 10 vehicles?
Like George Carlin said: we buy houses, so we can store our stuff. If we get a bigger house, that means we can get more stuff!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgN5gCuLac
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February 15th, 2011 at 1:44 pm 136
@Renting: Keep those anecdotes coming! Locals posing as Rich Asians™!
It's like going to a crazy party with sexy girls only to find out it's almost all guys and all the chicks have boyfriends… Bear Patrol is sad again.
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February 15th, 2011 at 3:02 pm 137
Ok, this does it. I am starting a blog. You won't believe some of the stuff out here:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…
Look where it is:
http://maps.google.ca/maps?f=q&source=s_q&…
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February 15th, 2011 at 6:49 pm 138
@Absinthe:
In China miracle happen;It only takes 20 yrs to make China from a third-world entity into the number one economy.So Van RE will going up as long as wealthy Chinese government keeps supportting Canada.
Thanks Chinese government and its subjects.China is number.Beijing Model is superior.
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February 15th, 2011 at 10:24 pm 139
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Charles, Kalim Kassam. Kalim Kassam said: RT @reiver: (Part of?) Why the Canadian real estate market didn't crash as bad as the U.S. http://ow.ly/3Xhxk [...]
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February 15th, 2011 at 10:40 pm 140
@900kCrackHouse:
Of course not, it's just a piece of metal.
The price of gold simply reflects the attitudes of gold speculators, and if you think they can't get it wrong, you weren't around in 1980.
BTW how much of a rise in interest rates would it take for short term rates to double, like they did back then?
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February 16th, 2011 at 6:21 am 141
[...] Can the Canadian housing market avoid a US style crash … [...]
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:00 am 142
@AG Sage: I understand that CA bank capital ratios are looking better in order to meet Basel requirements, only because they are busy with mergers and acquisitions…e.g. Scotia got Dundee Bank. I'm just educating myself so no expert, but doesn't that mean the big banks are still not really meeting the capital ratio requirements, only fiddling with the denominator?
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