Buying a flip? Budget for taxes.
As you’re probably aware, flipping real estate is a business and the Canada Revenue Agency is going to want their cut whether you’re a Canadian citizen or not. But what if they can’t track down the foreign seller? Then they’ll get it from the buyer. That’s right, if you’re buying property from a foreign seller there’s a small but important detail you should be aware of:
Under section 116 of the Income Tax Act, when a non-resident disposes of taxable Canadian property, the purchaser “is required to withhold 25 per cent of the purchase price…until such time as a certificate of compliance is obtained by the non-resident vendor.”
The non-resident vendor is required to notify Canada Revenue of the disposition either prior to the sale or 10 days after the disposition date.
February 23rd, 2011 at 12:43 pm 1
Hey Best place on meth, do you get the feeling we know "Dave"?
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February 23rd, 2011 at 12:48 pm 2
The realtor twitter chat session was mentioned here yesterday.
We have archived an account of it.
For those of you who haven't yet seen it:
"Twitter Vancouver RE Chat ['YVRREChat'] –
Three Realtors, Four Mortgage Brokers, One Home-Stager, and Three Civilians Discuss The Market"
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Tb
Watch as professionals swap Vancouver RE memes.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 12:59 pm 3
Seriously, what is a realtor good for?????!!!
All this proves to show that if you're going to buy from a realtor, may as well get a realtor for yourself and force the realtor to split the comission.
——————————————————
Alban Wang, a realtor for Amex Sunrich Realty, said it’s not his responsibility to tell the final buyer that he or she could be on the hook for paying the capital gains tax should the middle-man default.
“It’s nothing with me,” Wang said. “I cannot say something to you. I’m only a realtor. I cannot tell you much.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 1:00 pm 4
@vreaa:
Jason Krist: Renting may be cheaper but it doesn’t mean it’ll get them further ahead
Conrad De Jong: That’s why homeowners are rich and renters are poor; FACT.
—————————————————————
Echh, I feel dirty after reading this crap.
It's like listening to the 11 stooges.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 1:54 pm 5
@Best place on meth:
Me too, it sounds like a mental gang rape done buy impotent minds. Bloody scary…
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February 23rd, 2011 at 2:03 pm 6
The 25% withholding applies if the property is capital property of the vendor, i.e. held for the purpose of producing income. If it is inventory (the vendor buys and sells properties for profit) then the withholding rate is 50%.
If the vendor's mortgage balance is more than 50% of the value of the property, this makes closing a bit of a challenge. The purchaser withholds 50% of the purchase price as he is required to pending receipt of the clearance certificate, which can take months to receive. In the meantime, the vendor has to come up with the cash required to pay out the mortgage.
Also consider that it's not uncommon for a Canadian resident to be registered on title when the property is beneficially owned by a non-resident. If as purchaser you didn't ask, and didn't require the vendor to provide a statutory declaration as to ownership and residency, you could be on the hook.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 2:06 pm 7
Did anyone else notice that the Twitter RE chat is a regular event?
http://twebevent.com/YVRREChat
..As they say "It’s important to have a wide range of opinions…otherwise, there is no discussion."
So hopefully they get more than 1 non-salesperson to show up for the next one..
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February 23rd, 2011 at 2:39 pm 8
@Ed: These "full service" professionals have long been providing very little service. They're just gatekeepers to MLS data the public cannot see to make informed decisions. This is fake scarcity. Zillow (and others) in the US seem to be doing just fine.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 2:40 pm 9
"Nearly 20 per cent of Canadians don't know if they'll be able to make their mortgage payments if interest rates increase, according to a poll released Thursday by Bank of Montreal"
Stress test your mortgage for peace of mind
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Stress+test+…
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February 23rd, 2011 at 2:54 pm 10
Condo buyers beware
A lawyer warns that it is unclear who would be on the hook for any problems at the former Olympic Village, the CBC's Eric Rankin reports
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/video/canews-22424922/co…
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February 23rd, 2011 at 3:10 pm 11
@vreaa, Thanks for that. I kept expecting Rod Serling to step in and tell me I was listening to another episode of The Twilight Zone.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 3:53 pm 12
Looks like Rennie is going for the kill … one final emotion push to sell off the rest of the village??
' Ad hoc Olympic party on Granville Street planned for Saturday draws city's ire '
http://www.theprovince.com/Olympic+party+Granvill…
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February 23rd, 2011 at 3:55 pm 13
Stress test your mortgage for peace of mind
Nearly 20 per cent of Canadians don't know if they'll be able to make their mortgage payments if interest rates increase, according to a poll released Thursday by Bank of Montreal — disturbing findings given that BMO expects the Bank of Canada to raise its benchmark rate by at least one per cent by the end of the year
Rest of story:
http://www.theprovince.com/business/Stress+test+y…
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February 23rd, 2011 at 4:13 pm 14
@Anonymous:
"Canadians who are worried about impending interest rate hikes should look for ways to reduce their overall housing costs, including shorter amortization periods, which can reduce the amount of interest paid over the life of the mortgage, says Archdekin."
Pardon?
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February 23rd, 2011 at 5:15 pm 15
@N: Why, yes. Don't you see it? You reduce your housing costs… by increasing them. Makes perfect sense to me, in the world where up is down, black is white, and cashflow negative assets are great investments, because it always goes up.
God forbid someone ACTUALLY reduce their housing costs, either by downsizing or renting.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 7:54 pm 16
"Buyers are rich, renters are poor; FACT"
And there you have it. That's the big reason I finally left Vancouver. I got tired of this kind of insulting attitude. It's insulting because (1) It's breathtakingly arrogant and yet ubiquitous in Van and (2) It's ass backwards. In any other industry in any other part of the world sellers realize they have to treat buyers (otherwise known as customers) with respect. Sellers work to earn the business of buyers. Most sellers in Vancouver use any dirty trick in the book to wring every last red cent from a buyer.
When I look back at all the places I've ever lived and all the transactions I ever entered, it's only in Vancouver and the real estate industry that I've ever seen that kind of pure, naked greed. It's nauseating.
Also, I love how there was one person whose designation was "non-owner" which sounds so insulting to me. I also note she was the only one who said "I hope I didn't step on anyone's toes."
I have to say that exchange just reminded me that I don't miss Vancouver life *at* *all*, "most liveable city" or not.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 9:41 pm 17
"Watch as professionals swap Vancouver RE memes."
Not one of them explained how it got so far out of hand in the first place. (or the second and thrid place!)
CHEAP money, honey.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 10:49 pm 18
@scullboy:
"I have to say that exchange just reminded me that I don’t miss Vancouver life *at* *all*, “most liveable city” or not."
And yes, whose Vancouver:
The one the rich lawyer who lives across the street from Locarno Beach, and practices law from his home, which he inherited?
Or the working stiff couple who commute from Abbotsford to Clark and Venables for $18.00/hr who has maxed out the credit cards?
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February 23rd, 2011 at 11:06 pm 19
Average Canadian wages up 4.5% year over year. WOW! That goes a long ways to improving affordability.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 11:15 pm 20
I am enjoying life in Toronto and don't miss super expensive Vancouver a bit too. I don't have to pay 114 dollars monthly for family medicare which we never use. The dreaded winter isn't that bad at all so far. Only a few weeks left and it's spring.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 11:19 pm 21
@Dave: What'd the median do? What's the distribution look like?
If bill gates moved north of the border and shifted the average, how would that help anyone's housing affordability?
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February 23rd, 2011 at 11:36 pm 22
@AG Sage:
If everybody stopped building tomorrow, what would that do to housing prices? Both this and your hypothetical are silly.
Medians and averages are definitely important. The calculation for affordability is based on average, not median. The divergence between the two has grown over the last decade and some suggest that medians are better. Fair enough. But, I bet the income of buyers is closer to the average than the median because a large chunk of the people who don't buy are low income, present company excluded of course.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 11:39 pm 23
@Dave: The median multiple is not based on the average. That's the one markets have a nasty habit of reverting to. And you didn't answer the question, so good day.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 11:44 pm 24
How many times have I been a part of or overheard this conversation? Pretty funny stuff, when cartoons are involved in the vancouver bubble it makes it seem even more ridiculous.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bSb-V-tCqY
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February 23rd, 2011 at 11:48 pm 25
@AG Sage:
I thought it was clear why I didn't answer the hypothetical. Do you really think an extreme hypothetical invalidates the rapid YOY growth in wages?
As to your hypothetical, it would have far less impact than you are assuming. BIll Gates has massive wealth because of his ownership position in MSFT. His income is less spectacular because he doesn't actually need that much to get buy in a relative sense. Let's say he pulls out $30M for income. Divide that by 30M Canadians, and our average only goes up by $1.
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February 23rd, 2011 at 11:53 pm 26
Rosenberg on Oil spike; today:
"The bond market is telling you something very important here that
rather than being a permanent source of inflation, what we are witnessing is a global exogenous deflationary shock (the impact on discretionary spending in America will be considerable — consumers use 140 billion gallons of gasoline annually and prices are already up 30 cents so far this year and the run-up is far
from over). The price of copper is telling you the exact same thing as it rolls over to a four-week low, though security of supply and hoarding of raw materials in general should help establish a firm floor for all non-oil commodities. The surge
in wheat, corn, and soybean prices is also being unwound.
It would seem that the stock market is echoing that sentiment."
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:16 am 27
Some maroon last post wrote "Alberta oil money will flow into BC."
Clueless.. BC'ers will obviously flow into Alberta for jobs. Albertans have no money, their houses have fallen 15%.. that's why they have to start selling all their BC 2nd homes.
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:28 am 28
@Bob Loblaw:
Alberta has more oil than Saudi Arabia. BC and Alberta have 1/3 the population of Saudi Arabia with a far more diverse and educated economy sitting next to the World's largest economy. Think about that for a minute and then tell me that oil prices do not benefit BC.
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:30 am 29
Dave said, "Only 2%? That is huge for oil supply because oil is a relatively inelastic good. There isn’t much surplus production available to make up for it in the short term. I bet we see $120/barrel before the summer."
- 2% is significant if demand stays constant or keeps rising, but oil rising above $120 is going to put a serious crimp in demand as economies slow down and the risk of another recession rises. I think it's likely that the world can't handle oil at much above $125/barrel. Expect lots of volatility going forward, testing both 3 year highs and lows. Unless we see a serious supply side shock, rates are going to stay low for quite a while.
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:32 am 30
@Dave:
True, but more important than reserves is flow rates and EROEI. In both cases Alberta oil can't hold a candle to the Saudi oil.
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:36 am 31
@Dave:
Check your facts Dave.
Saudi Arabia is 1st in the world for reserves, Canada on the whole 3rd so Alberta could not have more than Saudi Arabia.
Though I agree that BC does benefit from oil, but then again so would Saskachewan (Bakken) and by extension Manitoba. A bubble is a bubble, oil is just being used to try to justify high housing prices. I believe it's called grasping at straws.
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:39 am 32
@Troll:
I agree. Oil can't hold above $120 without a serious economic hit. If it holds above $100 for a number of weeks, then I think the interest situation will start to play out because the Central banks will be scared to raise rates until it is clear what the impact of the oil shock was on the economy. In the meantime, I think we are well insulated from that shock and probably stand to benefit.
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:43 am 33
@19 Dave Says: "Average Canadian wages up 4.5% year over year. WOW! That goes a long ways to improving affordability."
At current local levels, not really, but from what dark orifice did that 4.5% figure come from? It wasn't Statcan:
http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/labr69a-eng….
The Bank of Canada number for inflation last year is 2.35%, so buying power (since nominal/real confuses you) was essentially flat.
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:45 am 34
@Anonymous:
Oil sands. Google it. They dwarf Saudi Reserves. Not all of them are currently added to our official reserves. But they are there. Our oil sands > Saudi conventional oil. Trust me on this.
I'm not using oil prices to justify real estate prices. What I am suggesting is that oil prices are a net positive on our real estate market for a couple reasons. The first is employee and oil revenue. The second is lower interest rates in North America due to a slower economy caused by high oil.
In an ideal World, Western Canada would have its own dollar and monetary system. If we had our own dollar and central bank, our interest rates could go up to balance the economy out. But that's not how it works, so a slower Ontario and Quebec economy will ironically benefit our real estate market.
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:47 am 35
@fixie guy:
LOL. Wages grew at twice the rate of inflation. That is absolutely HUGE, especially in the shadow of a deep and prolonged recession. Thank you Stephen Harper. Thank you Jim Flaherty.
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:03 am 36
For starters, it's tar.. not oil. It's all-in cost to produce is around $60/bbl. Which is about where oil will settle next year after all these commodity bubbles burst. Last commodity bubble peaks were 1920, 1951, 1980, (next in sequence?). There's never been more oil available, especially with all the new extraction technologies lately. Oil-money Albertans are trying to sell there BC shacks and buy winter homes in Arizona, Nevada for a tenth the amount. Albertans on average aren't as dumb as British Columbians, nor do they smoke as much pot, Dave.
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:04 am 37
Big momma's in da house!!!!!
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:10 am 38
@Dave: Was is just wages that grew or incomes? There's a huge distinction between the two. I can make $20/hr and work 40 hours per week, therefore my income is $800 per week. But I could get a raise to $22/hr but get cut to 35 hours per week so I make only $770 per week.
Great, a 10% increase in my wage, but my income goes down 3.75%.
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:10 am 39
@35 Dave Says: "LOL. Wages grew at twice the rate of inflation."
Call Statcan, they say you're lying. They peg the average Jan 2010 to Jan 2011 increase for all workers age 15 and over at 2.6%, permanent jobs at 2.3%. Once again:
http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/labr69a-eng….
lol
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:22 am 40
The longer Vancouver RE market goes up, the bigger the crash. I can't believe people (especially first time home buyers)with average incomes are still foolishly buying!
My wife makes the average income of about $52,000 a year and I own a machine shop in Richmond, my take home is about $110,000.
In 2008 we thought the market was going to tank, so we sold ("Big mistake") our paid-off condo in Richmond, banked some of the money and invested the rest. For a 1-1/2 years we rented a top floor of a Vancouver "shit" house in the neighborhood of 20th and Fraser(bigger mistake). It also had a "basement" which was rented out.
LIVING IN VANCOUVER IS NOT GREAT! : Traffic and commuting back to Richmond. Expensive rent for really old and shitty place! Assholes in basement suite…No parking everywhere… and the list goes on and on.
So, as of January, we moved to Queensburogh New West and are renting a nice 2 bdr top floor 1300 sqft condo for about the same price as the home in Vancouver. Evan better, my Brother in-law is staying with us and pays us a-little rent. We can enjoy our money instead of throw it into high mortgage payments, taxes and ("strata" – cause even with our combined wage and money saved, to buy a "detached house" for 800k + is retarded!).
I've calculated it vary carefully. It will be well worth the wait (even if it takes 5 years) when I buy that nearly new foreclosed detached home for cash.
Keep bidding the prices up you retarded, non-calculating "first time home buyers and flippers! Your gonna get stung!
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:23 am 41
@fixie guy:
I did:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Average+week…
Check it. It's great news. You should be happy but I doubt it because you don't seem to like good news.
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:23 am 42
@Dave: I dunno, using your definition of a flat market, looks pretty flat to me.
Hey, speaking of affordability, Teranet says Vancouver house prices were up 4.1% YoY in 2010, while interest rates went up, what, .5%? Say, that affordability does look flat after all.
But wait, that's using the national wage average. Wasn't there some news recently about BC bleeding jobs? And BC being the only province with negative savings rate?
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:24 am 43
@mattymatt:
Serious question… Who's the speculator in this story?
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:27 am 44
@Devore:
BC is doing just fine. Not to worry.
I find the data interesting because it backs up my statement that prices can be stable or go up while interest rates slowly rise. Affordability can stay flat or even improve under these conditions.
Now extend this a few years out and you start to understand the case for stagnant or slightly rising prices.
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:31 am 45
Attn. Dave #43
In finance, speculation is a financial action that does "Not Promise" safety of the initial investment along with the return on the principal sum.[1] Speculation typically involves the lending of money or the "purchase of assets", equity or debt but in a manner that has "not been given thorough analysis" or is deemed to have low margin of safety or a significant RISK of the LOSS of the principal investment. The term, "speculation," which is formally defined as above in Graham and Dodd's 1934 text, Security Analysis, contrasts with the term "investment," which is a financial operation that, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return.[1]
The speculator is the idiot buying homes at these prices.
I am the wise investor!
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:43 am 46
nothing to say eh?
cause you know I'm right!
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:43 am 47
@mattymatt:
No, you are the speculator in your own story.
You sold based on speculation of a price crash and a future low entry point.
Speculation cuts both ways.
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:44 am 48
Oh, and Dave, it's not a story… its real life!
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:47 am 49
@Dave:
There's a BIG difference between measuarable reserves and recoverable reserves, trust me on this. I really hate fact checking for you but even Alberta's own oil sands page states: "Alberta has proven oil reserves of 171.3 billion barrels, consisting of bitumen (169.9 billion barrels) and conventional oil (1.4 billion barrels). These reserves make up the third-largest proven crude oil reserve in the world, next to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. "
http://www.oilsands.alberta.ca/resource.html
All I'm saying is you should stop stating it as fact without having anything to back it up. Now where have I heard that before on this real estate forum?
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:48 am 50
Did I not say… "big mistake."
I'm not speculating anymore… The crash is coming, it's a reality and I'll be there to pic up the pieces of my mistaken speculation.
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:49 am 51
oh, and my wife reminds me of that mistake often!
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:58 am 52
@Anonymous:
There are 17 trillion barrels of oil in the oil sands. The official reserves are only 1% of the actual volume. You don't think that's a conservative estimate of reserves? The Saudis are assuming far greater than 1%. It only takes 4% recovery for our oil sands to exceed their reserves.
The reality here is that our oil sands dwarf their conventional reserves.
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:04 am 53
@Dave:
BS again Dave, there are an estimated 1.7 trillion barrels, the recovery rate is 10%. So you're only off by a factor of 10.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands
You're still not stating facts and that's my point, again.
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:09 am 54
@Dave: "BC is doing just fine"
Funny then that the government would see need to run a deficit. Some parts aren't doing so well. Just ask Kelowna Realtors.
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:37 am 55
@Anonymous:
"All I’m saying is you should stop stating it as fact without having anything to back it up."
I believe Dave's stats come from Wikipedia :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_oil_sands
"With modern unconventional oil production technology, at least 10% of these deposits, or about 170 billion barrels (27×10^9 m3) were considered to be economically recoverable at 2006 prices, making Canada's total oil reserves the second largest in the world, after Saudi Arabia's."
So the economically recoverable reserves increase with oil prices, out of a total reserve of 1.7trillion barrels of bitumen.
So you're both right, in a way.
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:39 am 56
@Dave:
Proven oil reserves – 171 billion.
http://oilsands.alberta.ca/FactSheets/The_Facts_v…
Dave's imaginary reserves – 100 times that amount.
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:46 am 57
You know who didn't withhold? Sydney Crosby in the his Olympic Village suite.
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:48 am 58
I am noticing a lot of price changes in my VOW. Up. People are raising their prices. Anyone else noticing that?
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:50 am 59
Just got off the phone with a buddy who is a Mortgage Broker in Kelowna and he said he is extremely busy right now getting deals done before the March deadline.
I asked him in % terms how many buyers in the past 12 months have bought with the minimum downpayment and the max amort. available?
He replied after thinking for a few seconds…
97%
This is going to end far worse than even bears believe.
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:56 am 60
@VHB:
I've noticed that for the past 2 or 3 weeks.
It's a good move for sellers because dumb, panicky buyers are grabbing anything they can get their hands on before March 18th.
Fleece 'em.
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February 24th, 2011 at 3:01 am 61
Bob Loblaw Says: "For starters, it’s tar.. not oil. It’s all-in cost to produce is around $60/bbl.”
So what is the problem if it is tar? What is important is that in the conventional “peak oil” environment oil extracted from tar is profitable. In 2010 average price of oil was $80.22. In 2011 it will be even higher.
Of topic,
Sold this morning oil at 100 that bought yesterday at $96. 3 k profit, overnight. waiting for a dip. Happy, happy.
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February 24th, 2011 at 3:02 am 62
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_sDCKFPKKvO0/SaiFk0fUx1I…
is there anywhere I can find up-dated versions of Paul B's fabulous charts?
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February 24th, 2011 at 3:03 am 63
I don't get the Chinese mentality, it seems they are all about easy money and cutting corners. Gambling, RE speculation, questionable manufacturing practices, questionable human rights practices etc.
Well, this one really made me laugh, RE laws changed in China so the rich needed something else to gamble on:
<a href="http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/My+Money/Story/A1Story20100921-238283.html" rel="nofollow">Rich Chinese speculating on wine appreciation!
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February 24th, 2011 at 3:20 am 64
@YLTNboomerang:
Well then this will really make you laugh.
Those idiots are cutting corners on their high speed rail network too.
http://topics.scmp.com/news/china-news-watch/arti…
China is a disaster in the making.
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February 24th, 2011 at 3:36 am 65
@YLTNboomerang: That brings to mind my favourite cartoon: link.
People in Vancouver have lost sight of the right-hand panel of the cartoon. So sad.
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February 24th, 2011 at 3:40 am 66
"Almost one-fifth of Canadians aren't sure they'll be able to make their mortgage payments if interest rates go up.
The Bank of Canada is expected to raise its benchmark rate by one per cent this year. That's not a huge strain, but research from BMO says homeowners should be ready for when rates return to historic norms.
The bank is urging people to "stress-test" their mortgages using a payment based on a higher rate to make sure they can continue to pay.
It adds total expenses should not be more than one third of total household income."
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February 24th, 2011 at 3:48 am 67
This renter just made a small fortune shorting oil futures in the last 4 days. Money I probably wouldn't have had if I had bought in this incredibly over-inflated housing market.
Even though I just made enough to put about 25% down on an overpriced piece of shit on the west side I think I will just stand down until prices come in line with reality. And if it never happens that's fine I'll be the guy with the bulging bank account traveling whenever and wherever I want..
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February 24th, 2011 at 3:53 am 68
VREA – Rosenburg ?!?!
April 2 2009, Business Insider
Merrill's Rosenburg : A New Bull Market? Are You Out OF Your Mind?
quote "Based on the outlook for corporate profits and the typical trough P/E multiple that characterized recession bear markets, it would not surprise us to see the S&P 500 gravitate in a 475 – 650 range for an extended period of time".
He was more bearish in person!!!!
S&P was 850 at the time it's 1303 now – the guy's a joke – he's been SO WRONG for SO lONG. What do they say about a broken watch … It's right twice a day!!!!!
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:04 am 69
Dire Straits
Since we seem to be spouting off how ‘smart’ we are, I bought oil at $85 a week ago. Peak oilers are dumber than gold bugs. Peak oil is so far off… well, let’s just say you and your peak oil buddies are about to get as big a lesson this year as recent Vancouver homebuyers.
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:12 am 70
@YLTNboomerang: "it seems they are all about easy money and cutting corners"
I'm sure that happens but, in many circumstances, Chinese manufacturers produce significant value and have a solid work ethic. Some of the money being generated there is deserved, as it has been in all previous economies emerging from poverty. It's not fair to paint all of China, and the capital being spent on local real estate, with a single brush.
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:15 am 71
@VHB: "a lot of price changes in my VOW."
With an MOI of below 4 projected for February, is that really a surprise?
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:24 am 72
In most circumstances they do. That is why so much is made in China. Everything from the iphone to this Sony laptop I am typing on. Bot recognised as high quality for their American and Japanese branding but made in China. The reason they are made in China?
1. Cheap labour
2. Infrastructure for manufacturing
The vast majority of Chinese are poor hard workers. What we see here is not the average Chinese person.
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:25 am 73
New to the sight but you might want to change the coaster video. as much as it hurts, it needs a new up leg.
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:30 am 74
@mattymatt: That's something many of us bears have struggled with. I've also learned not to accept sub-standard accomodations while I avoid the RE market. There are also NEW purpose-built apartments in Queensborough if the condo doesn't work out. If I were making more money
I'd be checking those out myself.
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:30 am 75
I got a reply from the CRTC regarding my complaint about Global and the condo lineup story and the Helicopter story. It was then referred to the Canadian Broadcast Standards Council (CBSC). They are now asking me for time and date details. Does anyone recall the exact date of the condo lineup story? I know it was Global, I think Feb 16th, but was it 6pm news? As well, anyone recall the helicopter story? Was it Global as well or was that one CTV? I need a date and time of the broadcast. If anyone knows off hand it would be handy.
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:39 am 76
If you can own such an expensive condo, is it so hard to use proof-reading software (it comes with MS Word)?
Confusing OV rental ad
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2232521…
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:39 am 77
I find all this talk about oil saving Canada to be interesting. I've worked in the oil patch, but I consider myself kind of neutral on the oil sands.
It seems like Canadians think that we are sitting on this proverbial gold mine that will save our house prices (especially Calgary….my home town).
We are a net exporter of energy, but still we produce something like 3 million bpd, and consume 2 million bpd. Even at $100, the net represents a few % of our GDP. Yet, everytime oil goes up, our stock market (disporportionately in my opinion) shoots up.
It's starting to feel like oil is the next dot com. It's taken as fact that in just a few years, oil will be at $200. I'm not too sure myself. All we need is another crash to bring it down to $30.
A little off topic. Have any of you seen the Chevy Volt? I'm really impressed by it. Yeah, it's still too expensive, and a little small, but when I compare it to the EV1 of just 15 years ago it's about 1/2 the price, seats 4, can use gas (so range is not a problem), and by some estimates the average driver would use 80% less gas (not including electricity of course). In the 2nd or 3rd iteration, cars like this could be the first nail in the coffin for high oil prices.
KK
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:42 am 78
@DaMann: Helicopter scam was on the 10th according to this blog:
http://www.thekey.com/Blog.php
Also use this as evidence for your complaint.
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:48 am 79
@DaMann:
You can look for it here http://www.globaltvbc.com/video/index.html
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:50 am 80
@DaMann:
This one?
http://www.globaltvbc.com/video/index.html?releas…
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February 24th, 2011 at 5:20 am 81
@Epica: Agreed! We need some updated charts – would love to see how the inventory growth stacks up against 2008 and 2009…
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February 24th, 2011 at 6:02 am 82
@Drachen:
Thanks for your help Drachen
That one you linked to has a brief thing about the OV price cuts but nothing about the helicopter or the lineup story. I can't seem to find anything in the global library archive. The search is pretty bad
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February 24th, 2011 at 6:12 am 83
@REIC is watching us:
"If you can own such an expensive condo, is it so hard to use proof-reading software (it comes with MS Word)?"
Well, as the bulls keep reminding us, RE owners are not graduate students. Maybe they are not even highschool graduates. That may explain why they pay such rediculous prices.
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February 24th, 2011 at 6:24 am 84
@Anonymous:
Doesn't explain your spelling now does it?
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February 24th, 2011 at 6:28 am 85
Garth linked the global stories via youtube if that helps:
Condo line: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/02/16/2020-2/
Helicopter: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/02/09/what-to-fear…
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February 24th, 2011 at 6:30 am 86
Yes – I admit – I am addicted to garth's blog (but taken with a grain of salt)
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February 24th, 2011 at 6:42 am 87
Price change alert!
MLS® V870220 at 6815 SHERBROOKE ST has been reduced from $969K to $968K.
That ought to do the trick.
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February 24th, 2011 at 6:55 am 88
@jesse:
>>>in many circumstances, Chinese manufacturers produce significant value and have a solid work ethic.<<<
I suppose, if you overlook the lead in toys, melamine tainted baby formula, toxic drywall and pretty much everything they make falling apart after 3 weeks then yeah, their shit's pretty solid.
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February 24th, 2011 at 6:57 am 89
@reasonfirst:
Thanks for the links
I was under the impression the helicopter piece said they were Chinese buyers in the Helicopter, the Global piece said right from the start that they were RE agents representing Chinese buyers.
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February 24th, 2011 at 7:07 am 90
@DaMann: The coup de grace in the whole helicopter piece is near the end when the reporter informs us "today's helicopter ride seemed to work, netting the marketing group about a half-dozen sales."
If one of the RE agents in the plane was my buying agent, I'd fire him right away. What kind of a moron agrees to purchase a piece of residential real estate while viewing it from a few thousand feet in the air?
10 February 2011–The day Vancouver's real estate market "flew the chopper!"
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February 24th, 2011 at 7:13 am 91
@oneangryslav2:
Fair points for sure.
Just getting all my facts straight for the CRTC.
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February 24th, 2011 at 7:17 am 92
@Best place on meth:
Silly amateurs, they should have reduced it to 888k and then a bidding war could easily get them $1million.
Those of you looking for updated stats should try here:
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
It's not the same area that Paul B reports on but it still gives you MOM/YOY comparisons.
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February 24th, 2011 at 7:32 am 93
@jesse:
OK, I'll use multiple brushes many times and come out with the same picture. If they are emerging out of poverty, there shouldn't be large clumps of nouveau uber riche while the majority of the population remains close to poverty. I gotta say that it is the most messed up communist state in existence! I'm surprised we don't see revolutions over there!
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February 24th, 2011 at 7:42 am 94
@YLTNboomerang:
…yet…not yet!
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February 24th, 2011 at 7:47 am 95
@Best place on meth: Have it occurred to you that maybe, just maybe, part of the big reason why the quality sucks is because the foreign companies mandate it? I mean if you are a big US company setting up factory in China or anywhere in the world, wouldn't that factory include things like quality assurance and testing to ensure that the product is up to the official company quality standard? Maybe all these quality issues are happening is precisely because the actual companies themselves don't want the high quality to begin with? So all these blame on made in China quality issues are really just a deflection of attention from the actual culprits – namely corporate America, not the actual factory workers who are order to make low quality products via direct or indirect means?
Granted I'm not saying everything is perfect in China, but such problems are part of rapid economic growth and advancements at this stage in economic development. Same thing happened in Western economies too, just 100 years ago so nobody alive remembered those periods and take the current standards as how things always are. Actually come to think of it, even in modern Canada and US manufacturing, there are lots of quality issues – just take a look at the agriculture/food processing industry for example. It's not really a China thing as much as a corporate greed and lax enforcement and punishment thing.
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February 24th, 2011 at 7:50 am 96
Best part of that wine article:
"With more than four years of wine investment experience, Xu said investors should first master good knowledge of wine culture and collection as well as wine investment skills, and then enter the business cautiously."
There's no mention of how to actually *enjoy* the product, which is the point (or should be the point) of purchasing the damn thing in the first place.
GLad to hear the French are making money off these people though, not that long ago all you heard about was how ancient vineyards were being plowed under.
That mentality certainly goes a long way to explaining behaviour in the Van condo market though.
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February 24th, 2011 at 7:55 am 97
DaMann:
Helicopters:
'Chinese Buyers Flock To White Rock',
Global BC TV, aired 9 Feb 2011
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Px
Burnaby Line-up:
Global TV, aired 16 Feb 2011
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Rm
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February 24th, 2011 at 7:57 am 98
@oneangryslav2: Don't hold your breath because while average Chinese have issues with the current government, the memories of what happens to China when there is a weak central government or power vacumm at the top is fresh in most people's minds. That and the rapid economic rise in Chinese economy and living standards are reason enough to prevent any mass revolutions. The fact that you compared China to Middle East dictatorships show just how little you know about China.
If you want to know what's going on in China? I would recommend you go watch the Chinese channels like Phoenix TV (ch 520 on Shaw) that broadcast various programs from mainland China. I think you will be surprised at just how much actual debate there is in China about various issues of the day. Frankly these issues are much more informative and useful than the 10 seconds soundbites policy debates we get here. Also while you can't go around shouting down with government, free elections for central government on the street, and that might be like the most important thing to you, to most Chinese, that's probably not even in their top 10 priority list. China has changed so much in the last 30 years. Most people remembers and can compare what China was like 20 to 30 years ago to what it is like now and frankly they think on balance they are much better off because of government policies despite all the issues the country faces. You are just not going to get a revolution from a population with that kind of view.
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:07 am 99
@space889:
>>>Have it occurred to you that maybe, just maybe, part of the big reason why the quality sucks is because the foreign companies mandate it?<<<
No, it hasn't. Not for a second.
Your weak defense of China fails and your attempt to blame western corporations is a farce.
How do you then explain the poor standards in their own products for domestic consumption?
How many Chinese babies were killed from tainted formula, how many schools collapsed on their kids in minor earthquakes due to shoddy construction where some people made big bucks cutting corners?
I mentioned earlier the high speed train system they're trying to get built as fast as possible, quality be damned.
And how the hell do you explain this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pktM__i-8IQ&fe…
China is trying to catch up to the west at the highest possible speed and the lowest possible cost because all they care about is making money and projecting to the world how great they are.
They're a joke.
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:13 am 100
Granted China's growth has been accelerated and perceived to be unsustainable, but per capita wise, they still have a lot of room to catch up to that of their western counterparts.
All this China bashing and cheering mostly neglects the fact that china is basically a large collective of provinces, provinces that out populate Canada.
Even if China's per Capita does not exceed 50% of ours, they will have exceeded the US. Will there be another technological revolution that that brings the West above their current plateau?
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:14 am 101
@scullboy: Errr….I don't think the wine would still be an investment after you drink it! If you can't drink the investment then why would you need to learn to enjoy drinking wine? I can see how enjoying wine would help with picking the right investment in this case but it's not really necessary.
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:15 am 102
Oh yeah, anyone noticed that TSX was down a lucky 88.88 points!!! OMG how luck is that!?! Tomorrow will probably see some heavy buying in TSX by the Chinese!
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:16 am 103
@space889:
Where did I do this? Go back and read what I wrote; nowhere did I compare China to the dictatorships of the Middle East.
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:26 am 104
#95 space889 Says: "Have it occurred to you that maybe, just maybe, part of the big reason why the quality sucks is because the foreign companies mandate it?"
Or maybe not. The only two people I know who rolled out Mainland manufacturing initiatives both described the travails of avoiding being fucked, like paying foreign private school tuition for a plant manager's daughter or preferring to hire foreign managers when possible because they're outside the local bribe syndicate. Certainly not all plants are the same but blaming the clients is as laughable as it is ludicrous. Entire third party quality assurance industries have sprung up to assist outsiders get what they order. Nice try.
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:31 am 105
@Best place on meth: "They're a joke."
Canada has its warts too: first nations reserves have significant economic, social, and health problems. While the extent of the problem is not the same as in China, the same principle applies.
I've done business with firms in China and working conditions vary significantly. In one specific case, the parts we had manufactured there required specific skills to build so turnover was kept to a minimum and as a result conditions weren't that bad.
It's a mistake to paint the entire country with on brush, as your comment, on its surface, is doing. The owners and workers of the factory we used deserved every penny we gave them. Is it wrong for some of them to turn around and buy a Dunbar house close to St. Georges?
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:38 am 106
"Canada has its warts too: first nations reserves have significant economic, social, and health problems…"
Hmmm…and most of those things are looked after.
Wish I didn't have to pay taxes, got free university…
So, vote me down. Go ahead.
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:40 am 107
@YLTNboomerang: "I gotta say that it is the most messed up communist state in existence!"
Do you really think China is a communist state like, say, Cuba? Come off it.
Significant income disparity can occur during fast economic growth spurts. Not saying it's unavoidable but the US, UK, and other countries experienced (and arguably are currently experiencing) similar disparities.
Bouts of inflation are worrying for the Chinese politburo because they can lead to significant capital misallocations and popular unrest. The politburo should know: income disparity was a large reason they came to power 60 years ago!
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:44 am 108
@scullboy: The point of investing, such as in commodities, is not to consume it, but to hold it speculatively and resell it. When you invest in oil futures, you don't want 10 barrels of crude on your doorstep, you just want to roll the contract over to the next month. There is no expectation of delivery.
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:45 am 109
@vreaa:
Thank you very much!
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February 24th, 2011 at 8:51 am 110
@space889: I agree with some of what you say, but you're simply wrong about the causes/triggers of revolution. Why in the Middle East right now? If you're a staunch supporter of Bush and Blair you're arguing (incorrectly) that it was their decision to bomb the crap out of Iraq about eight years ago that produced the current moment in Middle Eastern politics. Did the Tunisians and Egyptians wake up en masse one morning a month ago and decide for the first time that they wanted democracy?
I'm not going to get into the history of political revolutions, but these events usually happen when general economic levels are rising and demands from the people, which are also rising, become increasingly likely to be unmet.
In addition, the (potential causal) role of democracy in revolutions is also not nearly as apparent as it may seem. Egyptians weren't necessarily clamouring for democracy. Had the Mubarak regime been able to allow Egyptians to at least maintain, let alone increase, their standard of living, there would have been no protests. Young, disaffected populations with rising demands (that are being unmet) can be the triggering agents of revolutionary change. Look for young, increasingly frustrated–economically and sexually (in light of China's one-child policy) –men to act as the agents of change in China.
The reason that revolutions don't occur in democratic systems is because democratic regimes are generally good at fulfilling individuals' needs, not because people are more generally inclined towards democracy. Democratic regimes are also more responsive to grievances and they have more efficient mechanisms and institutions in this regard.
I don't understand this quote:
The last time there was a lack strong central government was during the protracted civil war (1927-1949). So since 1949, there has been a strong central government for more than 60 years now. I doubt that the vast majority of Chinese have experienced anything like a power vacuum in their lifetime. Moreover, it was this strong central government whose policies unwittingly caused the deaths of tens of millions during the Cultural Revolution.
Finally, the number of riots in China has been increasing rapidly over the last few years and the inflationary pressures are not going to help. I'll leave you with this:
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers38%5Cpa…
P.S. Sorry for high-jacking the thread. Back to chopper-flying Chinese real estate agents now.
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February 24th, 2011 at 10:23 am 111
Test
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February 24th, 2011 at 12:16 pm 112
Haven't seen Mr. B. so here are Larry's dailies.
Dailies – List | Sold
Vancouver East & West*
New Listings – 73
Back On Market Listings -1
Price Changes -20
Sold Listings – 49
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 280
Back On Market Listings – 3
Price Changes – 67
Sold Listings – 137
*Attached & Detached – Date: 02/24/2011 Time:19:35 Pacific YatterMatters.com:Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:17 pm 113
Hospice News !!! Don't miss them
Residents Receive UNA Support In Quest to Revise Hospice Location
President Predicts Hospice Site Debate Likely Meet in April
Also an interesting article about a Chinese developer building the next mixed residential complex on campus.
http://www.myuna.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Ca…
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:19 pm 114
Also on page 3:
"Residents Request same Fair Treatment as UBC Students"
http://www.myuna.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Ca…
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February 24th, 2011 at 1:20 pm 115
Here is the update using Larry's numbers.
February 2011 month-end projections
Days elapsed so far 18
Days remaining 2
5 Day Moving Average: Sales 162
5 Day Moving Average: Listings 278
SALES
Sales so far 2806
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 325
Projected month end total 3131 +/- 68
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 5121
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 557
Projected month end total 5678 +/- 31
Sell-list so far 54.8%
Projected month-end sell-list 55.1%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of February 23, 2011 12621
MoI at this sales pace 4.03
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:14 pm 116
@painted turtle: What a sickening display of empty-headed political correctness.
Did you see that pandering piece about the fathers working back in China "to earn income sufficient to support the family and the purchased property"?
Poor depressed immigrants suffering so much in their million dollar condos. Give me a freakin break. They are rich enough to choose to live the way they do. If they don't like it, GO HOME. Or don't live somewhere so expensive.
You want to see real suffering, go to the Downtown Eastside.
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February 24th, 2011 at 2:18 pm 117
My favorites are:
the poor lonely wife relocated by her Feng Shui master
the kid who refuses open windows
the toddler who wants to sleep with Mum
It tells you how much the kids got scared by the hysteria of the mothers over the prospect of declining property value.
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February 24th, 2011 at 3:20 pm 118
let me share with you the blood sucking real estate vampire, very funny and a window into the future in BC.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2IjktYtwwo&NR…
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:25 pm 119
@painted turtle:
http://www.myuna.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Ca…
page 6
Holy Gaddafi, those wackos are for real and live in the neighborhood? I'd think it can be only in the movies. Let's import some Talibans too to mix it up.
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February 24th, 2011 at 4:26 pm 120
@painted turtle:
ARE THEY FUCKING SERIOUS?
That article outlines point by point why those people from Asia should immediately be given maps to the airport where they can get on a plane and GO HOME. I'm so fucking sick and tired of the assholes on this thread who try to deny that it's Asians that are ruining our community and driving prices up. IT IS ASIANS. People, do not be afraid to speak your minds, it's still a free country and if you don't like our immigration policies and the practice of Asian (with the help of their white real estate sluts) realtors you have a RIGHT to express your opinion. FUCK those who call it racism to speak out. WE are the victims of racism but most Canadians are too FUCKING STUPID to do anything about it. In Australia they tell new would be immigrants: FUCK OFF, WE'RE FULL
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February 24th, 2011 at 5:08 pm 121
@painted turtle: That paper needs to study the Charter. It is not valid to deny a hospice a permit based on endogenous harm of nearby residents.
I'll be blunt: if this were a home for blacks and residents believed black people bring bad luck do you think they would stand a chance? Under the Charter, there is little to no difference between being old and sick and being black.
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February 28th, 2011 at 12:27 am 122
[...] mattymatt at vancouvercondo.info February 24th, 2011 at 9:22 am – “My wife makes the average income of about $52,000 a year and I own a machine shop in Richmond, my take home is about $110,000. In 2008 we thought the market was going to tank, so we sold (“Big mistake”) our paid-off condo in Richmond, banked some of the money and invested the rest. For a 1-1/2 years we rented a top floor of a Vancouver “shit” house in the neighborhood of 20th and Fraser (bigger mistake). It also had a “basement” which was rented out. LIVING IN VANCOUVER IS NOT GREAT! : Traffic and commuting back to Richmond. Expensive rent for really old and shitty place! Assholes in basement suite…No parking everywhere… and the list goes on and on. So, as of January, we moved to Queensborough New West and are renting a nice 2 bdr top floor 1300 sqft condo for about the same price as the home in Vancouver. Even better, my Brother in-law is staying with us and pays us a-little rent. We can enjoy our money instead of throw it into high mortgage payments, taxes and (“strata” – cause even with our combined wage and money saved, to buy a “detached house” for 800k + is retarded!). I’ve calculated it very carefully. It will be well worth the wait (even if it takes 5 years) when I buy that nearly new foreclosed detached home for cash. The longer Vancouver RE market goes up, the bigger the crash. I can’t believe people (especially first time home buyers) with average incomes are still foolishly buying!” [...]
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