Canadian Mortgage Rates in 2011

Last weekend during the free-for-all discussion two readers – Best Place on Meth and Troll predicted that mortgage rates would be going up this week, and lo and behold Monday saw an announcement from both TD and CIBC that they were raising their rates. How did they pull off this prediction?

Does it have anything to do with those mysterious 5 year bond yields?

Thanks goes to VHB for the graphs!

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patriotz
9 years ago

@REIC is watching us:

From what I’ve seen elsewhere, prices are normally 97-99% of ask.

What do you mean by that? If average price is 97-99% of average ask, that is something completely different from selling price being below ask for 97-99% of properties.

For example consider 10 properties all asking 500K, 9 sell for 490K and one sells for 525K. Average sale price is 493.5K, i.e. 98.7% of ask, but 90% of properties sold below ask and 10% above.

REIC is watching us
REIC is watching us
9 years ago

@Joshua: OK so anonymous/Vanrod (same person?) are just trolling by throwing around a bogus stat. Typical slimeball realwhores, I guess.

Joshua
Joshua
9 years ago

@REIC is watching us: if 96-99% below ask is normal, and 26% of todays sales went AT or above ask, while 75% went below ask, it seems logical that this would leave an overall average below ask. But we can't know without the specific data. Which is why this stat is meaningless.

REIC is watching us
REIC is watching us
9 years ago

From what I've seen elsewhere, prices are normally 97-99% of ask. So yeah, if this 26% figure were true (and I don't know if it is), it would be extremely unusual.

Why would such a strange percent happen on one particular day (if it did happen)? One possibility is some sort of data error.

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

100% sold below asking would be normal. 26% sold above ask and 74% sold below ask is indeed a hot market. Be smarter!

oneangryslav2
oneangryslav2
9 years ago

@gregor: I honestly don't know whether 26% over asking is high or low as I don't have a baseline against which to compare. Anonymous, would you mind providing this number on a daily basis? Why don't you give yourself the name "overasking" and post that stat daily. I (and I am sure others) would appreciate it.

Thanks,

OAS

VHB
VHB
9 years ago

February 2011 month-end projections Days elapsed so far 6 Days remaining 14 5 Day Moving Average: Sales 126 5 Day Moving Average: Listings 258 SALES Sales so far 840 Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1764 Projected month end total 2604 +/- 492 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 1640 Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 3612 Projected month end total 5252 +/- 285 Sell-list so far 51.2% Projected month-end sell-list 49.6% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of February 8, 2011 11628 MoI at this sales pace 4.47 Projected sales still fell even with the big sales day–because today's 182 replaced Feb 1st's 210 sales in the moving average. Good sales day. I think we ought to expect a few more of those–at least until March 18th. Anon, your posts were voted down only because people thought… Read more »

gregor
gregor
9 years ago

@Anonymous: 26% sold at or above asking price. I guess that would mean then that 74% were sold BELOW asking price. Now that is a headline. Who do you work for? Global?

Vanrod
Vanrod
9 years ago

@Anonymous: Thanks for the data on over ask sales. That is an huge %. Confirms my analysis: we are still in a balanced market, slightly tilted towards sellers.

Bear Vancouverite
Bear Vancouverite
9 years ago

: I thought your post was interesting, especially the comment about selling above asking. You seem like a bull, which is fine by me. We should all (bears and bulls) care about data like selling prices being above asking.

Devore
Devore
9 years ago

@Anonymous: People are interested, but need to have some certainty they're not bogus, as has happened in the past. Get am avatar, register it, and have at it. Even better if you can provide specific regional numbers.

CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
9 years ago

Americans Will Flock Into $5,000 Gold and $500 Silver

February 8th, 2011 by maxkeiser

Respond
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qi8fV8n_UBM&fe

CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
9 years ago

“I’m taking out $33 motherfuckers.”

CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
9 years ago
CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
9 years ago

Correction Fully Bought….up we go
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/silver-closes-we
Max Keiser for those who think things are going to go on as usual
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embed

Keeping an eye on th
Keeping an eye on th
9 years ago

http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Canada+purely+

If the historical statistics serve as a guide, Canada looks to be headed for a big drop in home prices, although any decline probably won’t be as pronounced as the U.S. housing bust, he said.

Of course you have to take Shiller with a grain of salt, he is not a highly trained realtor like Dave

Devore
Devore
9 years ago

@Patiently Waiting:

Is this poll manipulated or are people in Vancouver that delusional? A little from Column A and a little from Column B.

<a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/sp…..story.html

” target=”_blank”>http://www.vancouversun.com/sp…..story.html

In other words: people partying: rock on! people paying the tab: meh.

Eddie
Eddie
9 years ago

181 more lives ruined in 5 years. 181 more auctions on the courthouse steps in 2016. See you guys there!

Four four four four
Four four four four
9 years ago

@paulb:

"Anon’s numbers are right, but the position for REBGV number posting is already filled"

And we are very happy with paulb;

The anon guy who posted today's numbers had a chance, but when paulb left us for a while, the anon guy made an ass of himself.

4444

4444
4444
9 years ago

@paulb:

"Anon’s numbers are right, but the position for REBGV number posting is already filled"

And we are very happy with paulb;

The anon guy who posted today's numbers had a chance, but when paulb left us for a while, the anon guy made an ass of himself.

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

No worries Paul – my original post is at -7 so nobody is interested anyways. I only posted because I thought it was worth mentioning that so many solds were at or above list. Was 30% earlier but now sits at 26% for the day.

john
john
9 years ago

@short-houses #9

" I’m actually fairly curious about everyone’s thoughts about the end-game."

I will buy when the costs are about the same or not much more than renting a similar place or when I see somewhere I can afford to buy and could live in for 10 years if necessary. Rents are likely to also decline as house prices get cheaper and savings will increase as interest rates go up, further reducing the need to rush into buying.

Notorious P.U.G.
Notorious P.U.G.
9 years ago

New Listings 210

Price Changes 67

Sold Listings 181

Where do these numbers come from? Can someone post a source?

Boombust
Boombust
9 years ago

"….and then the inevitable disappoint to follow. hehe"

Skew you.

Vanrod
Vanrod
9 years ago

@paulb: LOL, someone probably called in sick at the board yesterday and so they caught up today. So funny seeing everyone go nuts….and then the inevitable disappoint to follow. hehe