CREA wants federal government out of mortgage market
..Ok, that’s not actually true, the Canadian Real Estate Association is actually just urging the federal government to leave everything as status quo so they can sell lots of houses, but it’s fun to imagine the first paragraph of this Globe and Mail article is meant to be taken literally:
The Canadian Real Estate Association has cautioned the federal government to stay out of the mortgage market until the effects of recent changes can be gauged, as it suggested buyers are racing to secure 35-year mortgages before they are banned in late March.
Imagine the mayhem that would be unleashed upon the Canadian housing market if the government via the CMHC ‘stayed out of the mortgage market’. The end of that sentence is also completely inaccurate, as 35-year mortgages obviously aren’t going to be ‘banned’ in late March, they simply won’t be eligible for tax-payer backed mortgage insurance anymore.
As Paulb points out, the remarkable thing about that article is the comments. Twelve hours after being published there are close to 300 comments, most of them unhappy with the CREA and the CMHC.
February 15th, 2011 at 7:54 pm 1
China government would have a interest in taking over the business.A tiny fraction of its 2000 billions reserve can jack up tiny Canada RE into perpetual upswing for at least a century.
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February 15th, 2011 at 11:52 pm 2
CBC: Home-sale finder's fee leads to real deal
Well isn't that magnanimous of Ross, only accepting a commission when the finder's fee was on the table too. We certainly wouldn't want fixed value finder's fees to become the norm, would we!
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February 15th, 2011 at 11:55 pm 3
CBC:Visas for skilled workers set to drop
Provincial nominees? Where oh where could that end up being?!?
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:08 am 4
"The Canadian Real Estate Association has cautioned the federal government to stay out of the mortgage market…"
I fully agree with CREA. Get rid of CMHC.
cheers!
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:28 am 5
Five-year is over 2.80. Not sure it will stick today though. link
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:34 am 6
I was driving around in my jag in the West End yesterday and I can't believe the number of for sale signs. I went in to Whole Foods too and it was dead and so was Starbucks. It's like the whole West End is in dire straights.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:40 am 7
Posted by anon yesterday, here is a link that confirms the recent run in Richmond may just be completely fueled by speculation and flipping.
http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/115999809.html
That is 10 properties recently bought by one person/company just to flip. They are all still for sale. How many others are out there like that?
This house of cards could come down a lot faster than we think. Possibly led by a Richmond and Westside collapse as speculators exit once they realize there are no rich chinese buying.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:48 am 8
Was wondering if anyone has info on what CMHC's forecast for prices for 2011 are.
I got an email from an agent that said prices are going up 4% and to buy now or pay 30-40 k more later. I think she just pulled that number out of nowhere, I cannot find any info on that.
I wanted to tell her fxck off but I want mls access.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:56 am 9
@jesse: Very interesting.
Some information on BC provincial nominees
http://www.welcomebc.ca/wbc/immigration/come/work…
Seems to cover skilled workers and investors. Is it the case that, even if the Feds decrease their skilled worker visas, the provinces can increase their skilled workers? Or do the provinces have control of the ratio of skilled workers to investors?
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:01 am 10
@Renting: Here is a comment from "unicas" on Realestatetalks on the "Richmond Job":
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:05 am 11
I'll try to scan one of the free Chinese papers with these ads and post it on the blog at some point.
BTW these flip schemes are nothing new. There seems to be a rush to get in on the action right now.
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:22 am 12
@UnagiDon: Provinces have no control over immigration quotas, that's a Federal thing. They can have input into the system's criteria, but not its quantity.
Think of it this way: if PEI decided they wanted to let in 500,000 immigrants next year, it's the feds on the hook for almost all of the social benefits that come with that, and once you're into Canada via PEI, you could easily move to Quebec and piss that provincial government off something royal. So, the quotas come from the top.
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:26 am 13
"CBC:Visas for skilled workers set to drop"
"The 2011 targets dramatically show the substantial reduction in federal skilled workers and a slight increase in provincial selection," Kurland says. "We really should be targeting more skilled workers to make up for Canadians' inability to demographically reproduce. We need the young workers to pay the taxes to support the pensions for Canada's aging population."
The whole pension and health system in Canada is one big ponzie scheme. same like a RE.
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:28 am 14
More "angry" Asians pissed off at the immigration cuts to parents and grandparents.
http://www.theprovince.com/Cuts+family+reunificat…
Boo hoo.
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:44 am 15
@jesse:
From Unicas:
Sure there are. That is why the guy is holding 10 of them. If there were ready buyers they would be sold.
And why do they need investors? With buyers waiting you flip the property before completion. You only need a small amount of cash as a deposit.
Crash and burn coming.
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:46 am 16
@Best place on meth:
"More “angry” Asians pissed off at the immigration cuts to parents and grandparents."
The "angry" Asians are complaining that, while more visas will be given to rich folks (who might drive up RE prices) less visas are being given to ordinary people, who are unlikely to drive up RE prices. But you don't like these "Asians" because …. Sorry, what was the reason? Is it perhaps just because they are "Asian?"
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:56 am 17
@Bebe: "The whole pension and health system in Canada is one big ponzie scheme"
It used to be the case that residents wishing dependent family members to immigrate needed to show adequate financial means to support them for a period of 10 years. This of course only includes MSP premiums and other costs of living but the government is at least cognizant that there is a potential for freeloading.
I'm not defending freeloading but I can see the dilemma facing many immigrant families who are faced with caring for their parents abroad. They want to, and are, contributing to Canada — as are their children — and facilitating having their parents immigrate helps them be more productive. That's the intent of the provision anyways.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:01 am 18
@N:
Or perhaps that bringing your aging and dying Ma and Pa over to Canada is crippling the country. We are not a charity, bringing in old people because their kids live here is suicide on our system. They will and have paid no tax and will almost immediately start draining the system on health care and who knows what else. Asian has nothing to do with it. There is no valid reason for bringing immigrants family over "just because".
My Grandparents stayed back home in their country when my parents came over and so can every other white, asian or whoever.
The PC garbage is over the top. Canada has immigration for one reason and one reason only, to benefit Canada. We need to get back to steering immigration back to benefiting Canada and away from vote buying.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:09 am 19
@Best place on meth:
They can just move back home to be with their relatives.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:12 am 20
@N:
>>>But you don’t like these “Asians” because …. Sorry, what was the reason? Is it perhaps just because they are “Asian?”<<<
I really don't care where they're from, I just think it's a good idea to cut back on people bringing their elderly parents and grandparents over.
Sick and dying people are bad luck.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:13 am 21
Makes sense to me. When tinkering with a market that responds verrrrry slowly it seems prudent to wait and see if your previous actions had the desired effect before initiating new ones. I think everybody would agree with that, but the only issue here seems to be with who is actually saying it (the CREA).
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:14 am 22
@jesse:
Let me guess – guaranteed by 88888888 Ltd.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:18 am 23
@Anonymouse:
Why did the CREA even bother saying that?
Nobody in government has suggested further changes.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:24 am 24
Cole's Notes version of 22 Anonymouse:
- Personal Appeal for Agreement
- False Premise
- Appeal to the Crowd
- Veiled Ad Hominem
Everything here seems in order, carry on.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:26 am 25
>>>But you don’t like these “Asians” because …. Sorry, what was the reason? Is it perhaps just because they are “Asian?”<<<
I really don't care where they're from, I just think it's a good idea to cut back on people bringing their elderly parents and grandparents over.
Sick and dying people are bad luck.
******
LMAO..priceless…
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:30 am 26
@Renting: There have been plenty of rich Chinese buying. The question is when will they stop?
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:32 am 27
Isn't it ironic that the government justifies massive immigration flows on the basis of needing young immigrant workers to support the economy and "Canadian" social services.
But almost half of the 280k immigrants coming in are family reunification class immigrants, aka parents and grandparents, that generally add little if any economic value.
But they do "cost" they system, everything from using a strained health care system to accessing to OAS after 10 years here (or 3 years if the good old MP from Brampton gets her private members bill through).
So were are bringing in almost equal funders of the social welfare system and equal users of the social welfare system.
Brilliant government policy! Cue welcome mat, put "Sucker" on your forward, and bend over Canada.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:32 am 28
@fixie guy:
"Cole’s Notes version of 22 Anonymouse"
I see you're unable to provide any sort of sensible counter argument.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:34 am 29
@data junkie:
Thanks for your info. But it's still unclear to me. The CBC article says that the (presumably federally mandated) quota for Provincial Nominees is 40k. (Presumably a total across all provinces, not per-province.)
The WelcomeBC site (http://www.welcomebc.ca/wbc/immigration/come/work/about/index.page?WT.svl=LeftNav) says there are two pools of Provincial Nominees: the Strategic Occupations (i.e., skilled workers) and Business Immigration. It sounds to me that both of these pools fall inside the 40k quota.
I am wondering:
– Whether BC has control over what fraction of its nominees are stategic and what fraction are business.
– What the historical numbers are for BC provincial nominees, broken down into strategic and business numbers.
The reason I'm wondering is: the federal government has shrunk the number of Federal Skilled Workers but *increased* the number of Provincial Nominees. But in BC, the Provincial Nominees also contains a pool of Skilled Workers. So the net change in the number of immigrant skilled workers could actually be zero, it's just shifting some from the Federal Skilled Workers pool to the Provincial Nominees / Strategic Occupations pool. Who knows.
In any case, more data would be useful.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:36 am 30
@DaMann:
"Canada has immigration for one reason and one reason only, to benefit Canada. We need to get back to steering immigration back to benefiting Canada and away from vote buying."
There are plenty of Canadians, including the quoted angry Asians, who see happily living together with their family members in Canada as a benefit. That's probably why Canada has continuously voted for governments that promise to implement/increase such programs. You may call suiting policy to the demands of the electorate in order to get elected "vote buying" but the dictionary calls that democracy. You seem to be suffering under the misconception that your own views and preferences are somehow more Canadian than the views and preferences of the majority of the Canadian electorate.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:37 am 31
@Best place on meth:
"Why did the CREA even bother saying that? Nobody in government has suggested further changes."
The last change was in April 2010. Obviously the CREA feel that two changes to the rules in 11 months is too frequent. I'm not sure I'd agree with that, but I imagine that's where they're coming from.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:38 am 32
@Anonymouse:
I take no issue with who is saying it, but rather why they are saying it. There has been no benefit to the general public since 2006 when the Conservatives first extended ammortizations to 40 years and removed the need for a down payment altogether. In fact in many ways we're worse off, but real estate prices are higher and ownership rates have increased. That means more transactions and more commission for their members. That's what's it's really all about, don't be so naive.
Affordability has deteriorated since the rules were first changed, debt to income ratios have hit all time highs, Canada has the worst debt to asset ratio of all 20 OECD countries and personal lines of credit (via. HELOCs) have just about doubled. If anything this should provide all the evidence to support reverting back to the old rules, unless you have a vested interest in higher housing prices and more transactions.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:39 am 33
@Best place on meth: Yeah, no kidding. Bring the grandparents over so they can stick them in a taxpayer financed hospice as far from their residence as possible.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:41 am 34
@joycer:
"If anything this should provide all the evidence to support reverting back to the old rules, unless you have a vested interest in higher housing prices and more transactions."
… or getting re-elected?
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:44 am 35
29 Anonymouse Says: "I see you’re unable to provide any sort of sensible counter argument"
True enough, but in fairness you provided no substance meriting a serious reply. Markets have reacted dramatically to changes in available liquidity for real estate. 'Verrrrry slowly' is self-evidently false to the point of idiocy or bald faced lie. Your second premise, that the feds don't know if these moves will meet the desired effect and therefore should move 'verrrrry slowly', or even have that option, is also unsupported.
But this is already way more exposition than such a sloppy post as 22 deserves, which was the point.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:50 am 36
@fixie guy:
"‘Verrrrry slowly’ is self-evidently false to the point of idiocy or bald faced lie."
Of course the housing market responds slowly to changes. There's the immediate impact of removing a pool of buyers – which is obviously instantaneous. After that you'd have to wait 3-4 months to actually observe any resultant price trends.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:50 am 37
@Anonymouse:
Oh I'm sure the rules couldn't change too frequently for them, as long as the changes were increasing amortization or reducing qualifications.
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:00 am 38
@Anonymouse:
Ok, let me pose the question differently.
What further changes has the government suggested post March 18 to cause the CREA to start bleating?
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:20 am 39
I bet Canada's population would continue rise, even if the govt. let fewer people in, if the govt. put in place policies that encouraged citizens to have more children. See France, Singapore and Quebec.
I wonder how many people in this town have put off having kids because they can't afford to or because they fear they’ll be unable to provide for their offspring.
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:27 am 40
@N:
"There are plenty of Canadians, including the quoted angry Asians, who see happily living together with their family members in Canada as a benefit. That’s probably why Canada has continuously voted for governments that promise to implement/increase such programs. You may call suiting policy to the demands of the electorate in order to get elected “vote buying” but the dictionary calls that democracy. You seem to be suffering under the misconception that your own views and preferences are somehow more Canadian than the views and preferences of the majority of the Canadian electorate."
Well maybe you are right, it's democracy, I guess that's why the Cons are pulling the plug on the "free healthcare for all old people world wide" plan. I guess the people have spoken and have had enough of being taken for a ride.
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:28 am 41
@N:
But you don’t like these "Asians"…
Not really as long as they abuse the system but I certainly do like this Asian:
http://picanese.com/index.php?i=422
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:29 am 42
@Manna from heaven:
None of which work to any great extent, and which in the case of France and Quebec are taken advantage of mainly by non-ethnic French. In Singapore the benefits are targeted to educated (i.e. Chinese) women, as the true goal is to keep the non-Chinese from becoming the majority.
George Orwell said it over 60 years ago:
People have small families for lifestyle, not economic, reasons.
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:34 am 43
@Best place on meth:
"What further changes has the government suggested post March 18 to cause the CREA to start bleating?"
I'm not aware of any other proposed changes.
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:35 am 44
@Manna from heaven:
That's certainly true if you want to buy a house in the GVRD, but not to live here. I provide better for my family by renting, yet I still get those odd looks/comments from people who think I'm not providing for my family unless I own a house. They would think I'm more responsible if we ate Kraft Dinner every night, stopped taking vacations, paying for soccer/dance/hockey/etc., contributing to our RRSP/TFSA and the kid's RESP but purchased the house instead. We still live in a house, just don't own it.
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:46 am 45
@Anonymouse:
>>>I’m not aware of any other proposed changes.<<<
Exactly.
The CREA is complaining about something that doesn't exist.
A hot steaming cup of STFU would serve them well.
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:47 am 46
A RELATED FOLLOW-UP TO THE CRAIGSLIST LINE UP AD YESTERDAY (NEW SKYSCRAPER HOTEL/CONDO AT WILLINGDON AND KINGSWAY). APPARENTLY DEMAND HAS BEEN SO HIGH THAT LINEUPS OF OVER 125 PEOPLE BEGAN YESTERDAY INSTEAD OF TOMORROW (SALES OFFICE OPENS SAT). A NEW SYSTEM IS NOW IN PLACE SO CLIENTS CAN JUST LEAVE THEIR INFORMATION AS IF THEY WERE WAITING IN LINE. FUNNY, MORE THAN ONE REALTOR FRIEND HAS TOLD ME THEY'VE BEEN GIVEN NICE INCENTIVES TO BRING CLIENTS TO THAT "LINE". I'M SURE IT'LL SELL, BUT TALK ABOUT THE MARKETING HYPE MACHINE REELING THEM IN IN EVERY WHICH WAY POSSIBLE. HOT OFF THE PRESS BELOW – THOUGHTS?
An Important Notice about Sovereign by Bosa Properties
Bosa Properties would like to take this opportunity to express our appreciation to you and your fellow realtors for your dedicated interest and attention as we approach our insider sales launch this Saturday.
While we knew that the interest in Sovereign was very healthy, we were surprised to find last night that over 125 clients had elected to begin lining up for our sales event this Saturday. While we anticipated that there would likely be a line-up, we could not have anticipated that it would begin forming so soon, and as a result have elected to modify our plans for the coming days.
While we assembled tents to provide cover for the evening, we at Bosa Properties do not wish to have potential homeowners living outside in the elements (especially during winter conditions). As a result, we will begin this morning assembling a sequential list of interested parties by recording names and their respective place in line, and will open our sales office doors on Saturday at 10am in accordance with this list. Further, we wish to provide you also with the opportunity to avoid an exhaustive line-up, by reserving for you a space in line for Saturday’s opening. Our sales office will be open today (Wednesday), Thursday and Friday from 12 – 3pm to assist you in reserving your place. At that time we will record a copy of your identification, and provide you with your specific number.
While interest is extremely high, we encourage you to remember that there are 202 homes in Sovereign and we have a wide variety of home designs, prices and views to choose from. We hope that you’re not discouraged by the large number of people interested in owning here, and we will work to try and find a home for you.
We would also ask that you remain aware of the following details:
We will have a large covered staging area at the rear of the Sales Office in an effort to make any waits as comfortable as possible. Inside the staging area we will have well defined and specific seating for each client who has been recorded on our list.
Once your name has been recorded on our list, we will not be in a position to allow substitutions/stand-ins within the staging area.Clients will be asked to present identification to gain access to the staging area. Please accept our thanks in advance for your cooperation and understanding as we work to accommodate ownership at Sovereign for all of our interested clients.
We look forward to meeting with you soon.
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:51 am 47
joycer Says: "That’s certainly true if you want to buy a house in the GVRD, but not to live here."
Well let's be honest it is not just owning a house versus renting. Everything is becoming expensive.
Have you checked the costs of day cares lately? At least $1000 buck per kid.
Have you checked piano lessons? I can tell you $23 for 1/2 hour!!!! I mean it is like you getting a lesson from Mozart for christ sake.
Vacations? What vacations? Just to step on the plane and fly to Toronto is $2500 for family of 4. it is ridiculous.
having a kids in today's society is just luxury for rich folks
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February 16th, 2011 at 4:06 am 48
I was laid off at the end of 2009 and soon joined a career workshop. It was mostly recent immigrant Asians, most of whom spoke passable English. They were mostly young and living in the family house while figuring out what they wanted to do with their lives. Lots of talent and lots of lost looks on their faces.
But not all spoke decent English. The middle-aged guy next to me had been a white-collar worker in South Korea. I ended up being his partner for a couple of exercises. We were unable to communicate. He was paired up with various other participants with no success. No one could understand him, and that included the young Asians (really Chinese).
He eventually stopped coming to the workshop. For his sake, I hope he either went back home or signed up for intensive English lessons. How the hell did this guy get into Canada? All I could think was the system is broken.
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February 16th, 2011 at 4:27 am 49
@N:
Well said N.
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February 16th, 2011 at 4:43 am 50
@Patiently Waiting:
"He eventually stopped coming to the workshop. For his sake, I hope he either went back home or signed up for intensive English lessons. How the hell did this guy get into Canada? All I could think was the system is broken."
Did you try speaking French to him?
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February 16th, 2011 at 5:04 am 51
@Anonymus:
What do you think the cost was for the same trip back in the 50's, adjusted to today's dollars?
Most people didn't even think about flying for vacations back then. And they had more kids.
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February 16th, 2011 at 5:08 am 52
@4slices, "I think she just pulled that number out of nowhere,"
My old boss used to accuse people of pulling numbers out of nowhere, but "nowhere" wasn't exactly the word he used. Look here (UrbanDictionary.com) for how he used to describe this.
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February 16th, 2011 at 5:11 am 53
@BPOM, "A hot steaming cup of STFU would serve them well."
"Scalding" would be better than "hot steaming".
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February 16th, 2011 at 5:28 am 54
@900kCrackHouse:
When prices start falling? Or maybe they like to cost average down on multiple properties.
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February 16th, 2011 at 5:37 am 55
patriotz Says: "Most people didn’t even think about flying for vacations back then. And they had more kids."
But shouldn’t majority of population utilize technological improvements (and affordability)in aviation in the last 40 years or your propagandized soul think that is only reserved for the elite (and rich Chinese).
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February 16th, 2011 at 5:42 am 56
@jesse:
There's no such thing as a guaranteed 20%.
Watch this ponzi scheme collapse like a deck of cards in a few years.
It's Earl Jones all over again.
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February 16th, 2011 at 5:43 am 57
@Anonymus:
"But shouldn’t majority of population utilize technological improvements (and affordability)in aviation in the last 40 years or your propagandized soul think that is only reserved for the elite (and rich Chinese)."
You are missing the point, which is that airfare is not a disincentive to domestic population growth.
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February 16th, 2011 at 5:45 am 58
@patriotz:
Ineffective and expensive. Mana from Heaven indeed, a very apt name. Natural growth due to birth rates across Europe are nearly universally negative, certainly in the western nations. It's really bad in Germany, and, maybe surprisingly, Greece, which is part of why they are having such problems. Their ponzie has simply run out of future Greeks to pay for everything.
Where there's a will, there's a way.
Saw on the way to work some article about charities being in great need of diapers. My first reaction was the reusable cloth ones, that cost pennies. But I guess being seen washing those isn't quite as glamorous and conducive to the hip urban lifestyle people are used to.
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February 16th, 2011 at 5:45 am 59
@Best place on meth: Sick and dying people are bad luck.
I just spit up my coffee. LOLS!
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February 16th, 2011 at 6:19 am 60
@900kCrackHouse:
They won't stop, any more than they stopped in 2008. The real question is when everyone else will stop.
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February 16th, 2011 at 6:20 am 61
[...] What if the CMHC stayed out of the mortgage market? | Vancouver … [...]
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February 16th, 2011 at 6:22 am 62
@Devore:
"Saw on the way to work some article about charities being in great need of diapers. My first reaction was the reusable cloth ones, that cost pennies."
I know people who use cloth diapers. They are definitely cheaper from the second kid onwards,but the initial outlay in sealed diaper buckets, the diapers themselves (which don't cost pennies when you buy them), plastic pants, pins, etc., and then the bleach, washing and drying costs make them much less attractive than they appear at first glance. I also wonder if you would be allowed to wash them in the laundromats and shared washers that many poor people use.
It's one of these things that requires some research, otherwise one jumps to the wrong conclusions, kind of like looking at the cost of buying a house without including maintenance and taxes.
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February 16th, 2011 at 6:33 am 63
Kinda funny, young immigrant workers are forced to pay into the ponzi scheme known as CPP and health care, but are not allowed to be reunited with their family because their parents might just burden the system? How about the immigrants be allowed to opt out of cpp and healthcare then?
We all know there won't be much left for the sub 35 generation once the boomers are done passing through cpp and health care. So why are the immigrants forced to pay into the ponzi scheme?
———–
So let's say we don't allow reunification of family members into Canada. Of course the family member here will still be supporting his family members overseas. We now have said individual wiring money overseas to support housing, medical, and living expenses for their parents.
This means that we are taking money away from the local economy and injecting it elsewhere. No more cycles of revenue, taxation, spending, etc.
I'd rather keep our money in Canada. The poor sap that has to support his parents will just have less disposable income to outbid me on the big ticket items.
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February 16th, 2011 at 6:48 am 64
#63 SourLemon: These people still pay their fair contribution into the social safety net so secondary loss of revenue in retail (most of it import anyway) is easily well below carrying the medical for the aged and infirm who never did or will contribute a dime. You, me and everyone else here aren't free hospitals for the world.
If new immigrants don't like the safety net they picked the wrong country, plenty of others handle it differently and they're welcome to give them a try. No hard feelings.
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February 16th, 2011 at 6:51 am 65
@SourLemon: Is there any other country on Earth that encourages the immigration of the elderly?
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February 16th, 2011 at 6:57 am 66
Patiently Waiting Says "Is there any other country on Earth that encourages the immigration of the elderly?"
States have the same program. Germany as well. I believe Australia.
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February 16th, 2011 at 7:10 am 67
@Anonymus: …
……..
having a kids in today’s society is just luxury for rich folks
……
Trust me, not having them is the luxury.
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February 16th, 2011 at 7:17 am 68
@Anonymus:
……..
But shouldn’t majority of population utilize technological improvements (and affordability)in aviation in the last 40 years……….
Let’s call a spade a spade: The real reason behind the recent rise in airfares is the demand from Realtors chartering planes to fly over Whiterock. I know it’s true; I heard it from my cousin who knows a girl who’s divorced from a guy that used to pump gas for the mechanic of a landlord of a guy who used to check baggage for WardAir in highschool.
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February 16th, 2011 at 7:17 am 69
@Bebe:
And France.
Actually, Canada has more restrictions than other countries on health grounds, precisely to avoid burdening the system. It's not easy, and often impossible, to get an immigrant visa for a relative who is likely to require extensive medical care in Canada, while in the States it's no problem.
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February 16th, 2011 at 7:35 am 70
@N:
"It’s not easy, and often impossible, to get an immigrant visa for a relative who is likely to require extensive medical care in Canada, while in the States it’s no problem."
I find that very hard to believe. Not saying your wrong but I find that very hard to believe that the US just let's them all in.
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February 16th, 2011 at 7:46 am 71
#69 N Says: "….often impossible, to get an immigrant visa for a relative who is likely to require extensive medical care in Canada, while in the States it’s no problem."
They can move to the US, but bring bags of cash because they won't get health insurance. That's the cost/benefit trade off against a country with strong social safety net.
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February 16th, 2011 at 7:47 am 72
@N: "It’s not easy, and often impossible, to get an immigrant visa"
That's been my experience. Additionally drugs can be more expensive without adequate coverage and waiting times can be longer than in other countries. I don't think it's as free a lunch as people think.
My major lobby to government is ensuring immigrants bring something lasting and positive to the country, just what I would expect of anyone born on Canadian soil.
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February 16th, 2011 at 7:50 am 73
@DaMann: "the US just let’s them all in"
The last years of life are a major profit centre for privatized health care. Why wouldn't a government want to support cash injections (pardon the pun) into what makes a significant part of their GDP?
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February 16th, 2011 at 7:56 am 74
@Patiently Waiting:
Surprisingly, various countries have retirement visas, also known as independent means visas, which are exactly what they sound like. These are the equivalent of Canada's family class, but limited to the elderly. What's interesting about them is that they expect the visa holder to pay for their own medical care – they get no state coverage.
If Canada implemented such a program, I doubt anyone would complain much.
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February 16th, 2011 at 7:59 am 75
Although it is true that the 4444 curse has been set in motion, and there will be 44 years of bad luck for assholes like "Dave", the bubble was not created by the Asians, it was pumped by them , but not anymore than the Anglo mind set that places so much importance on being a "homeowner"
In fact most modern languages do not even have a direct translation to "homeowner"
Vancouver will always be boom and bust, it is a hotbed of greater fools.
Vancouverites actually believe this is the best place on earth, most have only seen the village where they come from, and Vancouver-given the lack of reference points it's no surprise they can be manipulated by Rennie et al
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February 16th, 2011 at 8:09 am 76
N says: "And France.
Actually, Canada has more restrictions than other countries on health grounds, precisely to avoid burdening the system. It’s not easy, and often impossible, to get an immigrant visa for a relative who is likely to require extensive medical care in Canada, while in the States it’s no problem."
be carefull what are you saying, bears will vote your post down because does not fit their delusional view of the world. scarsam off
they voted my post down just because i stated the facts.
Bears you are bunch of uneducated morons.
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February 16th, 2011 at 8:10 am 77
#74 cgh Says: "If Canada implemented such a program, I doubt anyone would complain much."
Of course not, that's the point. Once someone gains citizenship they're entitled to all the rights and benefits it bestows. In Canada that (ideally) means universal, pooled health care based on mutual contributions. You can't create a second citizen class with limited access to health care so the very nature of our system requires careful control and selection of non-residents who need but can't contribute back. Anything less is social suicide.
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February 16th, 2011 at 8:13 am 78
#76 Bebe: Or perhaps it's because you were too lazy to cite sources?
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February 16th, 2011 at 8:18 am 79
U.S. Banks Push Home Buyers to Put Down More Cash
"The median down payment hovered around 20% in the late 1990s and began to creep downward in 2001 in the nine cities Zillow analyzed: Chicago; Stockton, Calif.; Las Vegas; Los Angeles; Miami-Fort Lauderdale; Phoenix; San Diego; San Francisco; and Tampa, Fla.
It fell as low as 4% in the fourth quarter of 2006, and in some markets came close to zero. Economists say it is no coincidence that those are the same markets sinking deeper underwater, meaning the value of homes is less than the debt owed on them."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703…
Coming soon to a Best Place on Earth near you.
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February 16th, 2011 at 8:34 am 80
@900kCrackHouse:
Thanks Remax for the input.
In a related story I heard from a friend a lot of rich chinese today at Costco buying toilet paper and jumbo laundry detergent. They were lined up waiting to buy.
These guys are so freaking rich they are buying whole buggies full of the stuff. No wonder the prices of groceries have been going up. Damn rich chinese buying them all.
I am sure within a few years we will be using news paper in the washroom and just rinsing our clothes without laundry detergent. The rich chinese will own it all.
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February 16th, 2011 at 8:45 am 81
Sovereign @ Burnaby Metrotown by Bosa
Got all sold out to wealthy Chinesein a day!!!!!!!
Congradulation Bosa.Who said,apartments don't sell hah
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February 16th, 2011 at 8:51 am 82
NIce to see top notch investigative journalism from Global TV News once again…
…just minutes ago, Deborah Hope was all jiggy talking about how real estate doesn;t appear to be slowing down.
A certain condo development in Burnaby had MANY pre-sale buyers lined up today, you see…
More "News" at 5.
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February 16th, 2011 at 8:59 am 83
@Best place on meth:
As the article notes, the banks are getting pickier about mortgages that they hold on their own books. They are more than happy to meet minimal standards for mortgages they hand off to the taxpayer (Fannie/Freddie/FHA), just like their counterparts here.
But you gotta love this quote:
"Absolutely crush" a market that is only 1/2 as expensive on average as Canada's. Can you imagine what a 20% DP requirement would do up here?
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:07 am 84
Global T.V just showed that line-up for that new condo building in Burnaby. They never mentioned that the people lining up were probably getting paid to do so.
best quote from one of the guys lined up “this is probably the best location in the whole of Vancouver, it’s right in the very middle”
classic!
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:08 am 85
Here is an interesting article on how rising inflation might effect real estate. Not too bullish.
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/02/inflation…
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:08 am 86
@patriotz:
Chinese don't mortgage so no matter how high the int it would put a dent on Van RE which is unique.When bears will admitt defeat?
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:10 am 87
@Renting:
Take look the project on Bosa on Kingsway,which slap your bear face right on.oooooutche
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:13 am 88
"Global T.V just showed that line-up for that new condo building in Burnaby. They never mentioned that the people lining up were probably getting paid to do so."
That station is on par with the old VSE (Vancouver Stock Exchange). Absolutely disgusting.
If you can, get a copy of "Fleecing the Lamb", all about the VSE and their antics.
Where are they now? Well, the shitheads at the VSE were so woefully corrupt that even the governments of the day had to shut it down.
The same goes for Global. Shut it down.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:19 am 89
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
Guess you missed the discussions over the last few days about how people are getting paid $$$ to stand in the lineups outside of the Bosa development in Bby.. $100 for day shifts and $125 for evenings. Sorry bud… I don't think those are wealthy asians standing in the rain. Glad to see you are about as guilable as Global is for reporting this tripe…. Greater fool defined to a tee.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:19 am 90
@Extremely rich Van house owner.: Is that you Kite (in the sky)?????
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:22 am 91
#86 Extremely rich Van house owner. Says: "Chinese don’t mortgage so no matter how high …."
I hope you're right. The taxpayer won't have to cover for them when the market tanks. Thanks ErVho!
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:28 am 92
I am highly skeptical of these people standing out in the rain to buy condos. Why would anybody do that when there is a multitude of condos available to buy right now, without HST? Why wait? Oh right…because if you buy today, that condo will surely be worth several times more when you go to sell, when the thing is finally built in two years.
I'll just go tell that to my friends who bought the Olympic condo presale (to flip). Though I think I'll get the door slammed in my face.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:29 am 93
"Take look the project on Bosa on Kingsway,which slap your bear face right on.oooooutche"
You're an idiot. Why don't you just buggar off?
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:30 am 94
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
Looks good. More supply coming!
Being so wealthy and smart you must have bought several units. Or were you just standing in line for the $100 trying to scrape together your next mortgage payment?
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:34 am 95
My financial advice to Extremely Rich Van House Owner… put your money where your mouth is!
Go to your bank tomorrow morning and take out the max HELOC on your home…. no doubt a very large sum of money…
Head over to the Bosa development with your cash in hand… No need to wait in line as there are plenty of paid waiters who will hold your spot. Be sure to keep your head down as the wealthy asians swoop in on their helicopters…
Come Sat morning, buy as many units as you can using a 5/35 mortgage. Don't worry if you're a bit levraged because this baby is only going to go up… trust me…
Come February of 2015, you will astounded at how much wealth you have generated. No need to thank me for this free advice, you seem like a super guy and I'm happy to help.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:34 am 96
New Listings 287
Price Changes 64
Sold Listings 219
12195
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:35 am 97
@Extremely rich Van house owner.: Enjoy that house by your lonesome loser self too bad you have no real friends and will never kiss a remotely attractive girl. When you get back from your shift in line on Kingsway tell us how many losers just like you met just like you.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:38 am 98
@paulb.:
mmmmm…. frothy!!!!
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:41 am 99
@Irrational Exuberance:
2015 ???? way too long man,isn't that you guys always predict soon gonna be what what whatever………………why take 14 yrs to realize your fantazy man. With our wealthy Chinese keep buying,I ain't see any slow down on Van RE in this century.If the sussess of Bosa project,makes you awaken during the nite,take a couple of sleeping bill.China is number one and Beijing Model is the best economic and political system.Canada should copy to enrich the Nation.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:42 am 100
@paulb.: Boom Baby!!…thats what I am talking about.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:43 am 101
@geeger:
no friend ? Come on man friends and girls always follow the one with swallowen wallet,not you house-non poor renter.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:44 am 102
@Extremely rich Van house owner.: You want us to become communist? isnt that why you left?
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:49 am 103
@DaMann:
Oh, believe me, I've done my homework. I have a family member with a disability. In the States, other than communicable diseases, the only restriction is if the person is, through their health problem, likely to be dangerous or become a public charge. By public charge, they mean fully institutionalized, and by likely, they mean almost certain.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:50 am 104
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
You got me man… I simply have no counter for that well laid out argument…. I concede.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:51 am 105
@geeger:
China is no more a Communist country man,brush your rusty social sciense.China nowaday is a National Socialist society,just like any western capitalist regimes,indeed,Canada is a semi-communist society which keeps sustaining the life of those social failure who are always complaining being priced out of Vancouver and the rest of the world.Stop whinning and work hard for your down payment or you will be priced from Mars
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:55 am 106
@Vanrod:
>>>Boom Baby!!…thats what I am talking about.<<<
You hide like a fucking rat until there's a decent sales day when you suddenly scurry out into the open.
So typical of worthless cheerleaders.
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February 16th, 2011 at 10:00 am 107
@Irrational Exuberance:
I was there,and aint whatever shadow you make up of;85% of them are wealthy mainland Chinese buying flats like lego for their concubines,and children for vacation purpose.Also, I saw few clever anglo customs are riding the boat with our Chinese friends.The project is well located and finely build by Bosa.Once the project has been completed in two yrs,its sticking price will at least be doublt.
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February 16th, 2011 at 10:05 am 108
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
Like I said… get in while the getting is good! So are you going to take my adivce and buy as many as you can? C'mon… it's free money!! Based on your analysis, a 2 bed/ 2bath at 860sf should be worth approx. $1.6 billion by 2029. If you guy enough units you will be worth more than Bill Gates!
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February 16th, 2011 at 10:13 am 109
A house in Chilliwack was robbed of 750,000 in silver bullion…
http://www.vancouversun.com/mobile/iphone/story.h…
Hope that wasn't you Crash JP Morgan Chase
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February 16th, 2011 at 10:14 am 110
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
Were you the one wearing the $10 coat?
Oh wait, that was everyone. Most of those people looked like refugees.
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February 16th, 2011 at 10:21 am 111
@Best place on meth:
Those people are standing in line for $100 cash money and hot bevvies…. What did you think they would be wearing, Georgio Armani??? lol!
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February 16th, 2011 at 10:31 am 112
@Best place on meth:
That is a allegation by bears,there ain't no paid individual as those stupid bears claimed.Indeed,many of them are driving BMW,Benz and Posche.retarded bear are hiding their nuts in the sand and hope for 100% correction.Go to mars and there will be free land for you guys.
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February 16th, 2011 at 10:40 am 113
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
Hey, no need to get so defensive buddy – I don't begrudge these folks a good days pay.
I'm happy to see them getting some work now that all the phone books have been delivered.
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February 16th, 2011 at 10:43 am 114
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
Don't they teach you cheer leaders how to write in that 4 week course? You must be the one in charge of writing all those great mls.ca listings.
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:01 am 115
The Conservatives have messed up our housing market so much that it risks bankrupting the CMHC which could put the Canadian taxpayer on the hook for over 400 billion dollars. Rumour has it that Harper will mandate minimum sentences for possession of marijuana if he gets a majority in the next election so one can't even light up in the event of bankruptcy after the housing bubble bursts!
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:01 am 116
@Vanrod:
Enjoy it…your Van Rod is only going to stay up for another 4wks, then you'll need Viagra for the rest of your life
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:09 am 117
"Rumour has it that Harper will mandate minimum sentences for possession of marijuana ". Great, 5% of BC's GDP will go down the sink!
On the news today:
1 – Cyber attack on the Canadian government from China.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/chin…
2 – Retention rate of economic immigrants in BC: 92%, in Quebec: 10%
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:16 am 118
@JIm:
Harper himself should be in jail for advocating war on Iraq.
That pig will never get a majority.
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:20 am 119
More about the line up at Garth's.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:22 am 120
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
…friends and girls always follow the one with swallowen wallet
Is that from your personal experience while chasing customers down on Hastings St?
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:11 pm 121
Between today's BOSA event or the White Rock-Bottom story last week, CTV or CBC should do a story about Global being duped twice or playing a whore role in this ponzi scheme.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:11 pm 122
Extremely dumb Van house own: "finely built by Bosa"
Thanks for the belly laugh, paid pumper. Bosa's built their share of leaky condo disasters over the last decade.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:19 pm 123
@specialfx3000:
I've e-mailed Global registering my disgust with them about tonight's bit as well as the helijet piece, and let them know I'll be switching to CBC for real news.
I also let them know they are nothing more than pathetic real estate pumpers.
You all should do the same.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:36 pm 124
@Best place on meth:
Good idea but those scumbags will likely just ignore us. Again, if only one of the other networks would step up with a story about Global. I will email CBC and CTV.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:38 pm 125
Listen hypnotic bears-
Another success story to dispel your delusional dream.
33 and main pre-sale is 90% sold to not so rich Chinese but hard working citizens who save up enough down payment to be part of Vancouver.Give up your Honky life style and be prudent on your finance;drug and booze ain't any good in your life.Repent now or you will be priced out to Mars.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:40 pm 126
@IT__Pro: All the same characters were saying the exact same thing about my Van Rod last spring. Yet it is still rock hard and excited about yet another strong spring market.
Bears:
you fooled me once when 40 year mortgages were outlawed: Shame on me!
you tried again when the qualification rate was implemented: Shame on you!
now your trying again with some minor change in mortgages: Double shame on you!
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:43 pm 127
@Prca:
House owners no need finding hookers on hasting which is reserved for house-non renters,if they still few pennies left after paying high rent,poor souls,meanwhile,house owners have enough equity pick one up in Crazy Ranch in Las Vegas.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:47 pm 128
@Best place on meth:
Global is just doing their jop,reporting the truth,no need to submit to bears' threat.RE sold to whoever can afford and pay the highest premium.Bears can move to Rocky Mountain before it is too late.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:51 pm 129
Where are those salemen from Bosa?
come on guys have the gut to tell them the truth and what was going on this morning .There ain't no staged pre-sale,all of those ppls lining for a slot are real ppls with cash and equity .Come on guys don't just count your commission while let those bear spreading disinformation.All sold out in the first few hours to 200 lucky beasts.
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:54 pm 130
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
Are you the jop that Global is doing?
According to the Urban Dictionary:
A Jop is:
"Person who is an extremely faggish ass-fuck with no life."
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=jo…
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February 16th, 2011 at 12:55 pm 131
They also said it stands for Jack Off Pain.
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:02 pm 132
@Patiently Waiting:
I feel sorry for those house-non retards whose future are as bleak
as those social failure walking like zombies along Hasting.Repent now or u will be left on street if you didn't your rent on time.The successful pre-sale are sprouting all over Vancover.God bless Vancover.Chinese purchasing power is invincible and can't be denied.
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:06 pm 133
@Extremely rich Van house owner.: Oh jeez, put down the crackpipe. I mean, literally, I think you are holding a crackpipe.
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:11 pm 134
@Patiently Waiting:
Ha ha who f,ing cares,I am delighted seeing you guy are being bashed time and time again by success story of Vancouver RE which has overcome numberous obstacles in the past decades and keep dashing like a bull.Whoever follows the Van RE bull are now handsomely rewarded.
Uneducated bears are angrily sticking up their dead feet from the boiling pot in defiance.However,each pre-sale will bash those ignorant and pathetic bears with a thunder strike .
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February 16th, 2011 at 1:31 pm 135
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
That is like 25 posts from one pumper. The market must be slow. No open houses to do?
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:01 pm 136
why are bulls here posting when they could be out buying condos.
if the market is so great, be happy and spend your time buying more.
the reason you're here is because you're scared, because you know, like I know, that this will end. And it won't end well, and for maybe a short time you feel relieved, and need to gloat.
But then, in the near future, when the interest rates creep up and you realize how much you owe…wow, that's going to feel really scary….waking up in the middle of the night with debt fears. yeah, that's got to be the worst thing to go through. re-financing in a few years at 8 or 9 percent, or maybe even more. that kind of fear would just seize your chest right up.
so, yeah, go ahead, enjoy the day
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:08 pm 137
@BPoM
I don't think writing to global alone does any good. In my past experience in dealing with corporations (Rogers), they bend over backwards when you involve the CRTC.
We all should lobby the CRTC about broadcasting standards, and the level of professionalism that CTV and Global has projected during the whiterock and Bosa developments.
—-
Yes, the CRTC are a problem themselves with the UBB rulings; but, they are the department responsible for broadcasting standards, censorship and licensing. Maybe designate a day where we post a letter to the CRTC like we've done for the MP's? This time make it concerning the MSM.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:19 pm 138
@SourLemon:
Let me get this straight. You are proposing writing to the government and asking them to censor the content of the news released by non-government broadcasters. That is to say, you want the state to enforce the telling of the truth. You might want to think twice before sending that letter.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:33 pm 139
@Anonymous:
That would make it well over 500 kilograms, even if the bullion was in the form of 100oz bars (cheaper than coins). Guess someone got to bragging to the wrong people.
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:37 pm 140
@BPOM, "I also let them know they are nothing more than pathetic real estate pumpers. You all should do the same."
Sadly, I believe they will reply with, "Yeah, OK. What's your point?"
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:50 pm 141
I wonder what the average in Vancouver is.
"Canadian families' average debt has hit six figures for the first time — and what they owe now amounts to 1.5 times what they make, according to the latest family finance checkup from the Vanier Institute of the Family."
Read more: http://www.canada.com/travel/Average+Canadian+fam…
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:54 pm 142
I call bollox on the $750K of silver story…at $30/oz, that would equate to around 25000 troy oz, which is around 750 kg. How are they going to take away that much mass in a passenger vehicle? Or am I getting the math wrong?
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February 16th, 2011 at 2:59 pm 143
@N
No, I'm suggesting that we write write to the government and ask them to enforce the difference between news and informercials.
Just like how radio 1130 always mentions owned by rogers when mentioning rogers and their subsidieries.
News paper articles have small little text that say advertisement when they look to much like journalism. I'm not asking for censorship, just journalistic professionalism. After all, aren't they entitled to access more events and venues than regular Joe?
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:25 pm 144
No motion of condo line-ups on the Global late night news.
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February 16th, 2011 at 3:26 pm 145
@Patiently Waiting: I meant no "mention". I wonder if they got spooked by the CRTC.
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February 16th, 2011 at 4:17 pm 146
I am utterly disgusted with the two most recent
marketing ploys (this fake lineup and the helicopter fly-by).
Many times in the past, I have encouraged people
to read between the lines and don’t just take
media and journalism for what it’s worth.
People! You are a free thinking human being.
Don’t digest this garbage on Global and CTV.
God gave you a brain… use it.
We’re not drones from Orwell’s 1984.
When you see “news”, ask yourself, who stands
to gain from this story. Who is the source, who
is the “expert”? Why are they telling me this.
Question everything. Don’t just blindly swallow
the blue pill! Pull away the curtains and follow
that rabbit hole.
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February 16th, 2011 at 4:37 pm 147
Chinese hackers try to access Canadian gov't data
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110216/chi…
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February 16th, 2011 at 4:42 pm 148
@CelicaMan:
Yes 25,000 ounces. Someone is lying here maybe for insurance purposes but I doubt that anyone would itemize bullion. First of all NOBODY in their right mind stores anything but maybe small amounts in their home. Anyone with 750,000 of anything can certainly afford the yearly rent on a private vault. Yes you're right, I think this is a bogus tale.
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February 16th, 2011 at 9:57 pm 149
"So is there a bubble? Is the Pope a Catholic?"
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Articl…
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:27 pm 150
If 140% wasn't bad enough, Canadian debt to income ratios have just been reported at 150%, a new record… way to go Mark all that tough talking really worked! Time to start raising rates before we hit 160%
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2011/02/17/vanier-i…
Did I mention the article also stated that: "Mortgage delinquencies up 50%"
If this sounds troubling now, just imagine what happens when rates start rising. Good thing it's different here.
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:37 pm 151
@SourLemon:
But nobody was paying Global. They just did it because they are lazy and that kind of story is popular. It’s not an infomercial because an infomercial is paid advertising. If the government supresses it, what basis will they use to adjudicate it, other that “that doesn’t look like news to me?”
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:50 pm 152
@N: How do you know they weren’t paid? We all know they get advertising revenue from real estate companies. Maybe they took it one step further.
CRTC may weaken regulations on “false news”, but they are still in place for now.
http://www.pacificfreepress.com/news/1-/8078-canadian-journalisms-last-48-hours.html
I’m seriously considering a formal complaint against Global TV.
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February 16th, 2011 at 11:56 pm 153
Not sure what the legal definition of journalism is. Couldn’t they have their news license revolked if they are lazy? Wouldn’t news without facts and information be known as commentaries and pundits? I didn’t turn on the news to watch glen beck.
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:19 am 154
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/edit…
Already, about 60 per cent of Canada’s overall newcomers are either family-class, or spouses and dependants of economic immigrants. The government began capping the number of parents and grandparents in 2004, once policy-makers realized they are unlikely to work, and more likely to draw on social support programs. “As Canada faces a growing aging population crunch, adding more elderly individuals to an already overtaxed system puts more pressure on it,” notes Sergio Karas, an immigration lawyer
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/natio…
The government quota has reportedly been increased for sponsorship applications filed at the Beijing visa office.
The Conservatives say spouses and children are a top priority for reunification visas. Parents and grandparents can visit loved ones on multiple-entry visas until the applications are processed.
Business Immigrant:
Business immigrants include three classes of immigrants–investors, entrepreneurs and self-employed people. Business immigrants become permanent residents on the basis of their ability to become economically established in Canada. The spouse and children of the business immigrant are also included in this category.
Includes farmers (grow op?) and artists. I am wondering if Immigration Canada check their status on regular basis after they crossed the border.
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:21 am 155
@painted turtle:
Please. As if any prospective buyer gives a hoot about what the mayor thinks. You think the place would have sold if Sullivan (who was and remains as positive on the OV as one could possibly be) were still mayor?
The OV didn't sell because it was priced too high (which is the same reason why anything doesn't sell) and that is precisely the reason Rennie why has dropped the prices. He knows that nothing else will work.
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:34 am 156
Got this from a Chinese Newspaper link.
http://www.mingpaotor.com/htm/News/20110216/tbh2….
Article was in Chinese so I used the translation option… grammar is very Chinglish. (translation resulted yuan but I'm sure that meant dollar)
3 days employed earn thousands queuing
Greater Vancouver rush to buy pre-heat conditions, providing "alternative extra money" opportunities. Reporters from China's Guo immediately confess that he is paying real estate brokers to line up, so "re cold, then wet, then boring," "I must survive."
Mr Kwok said that not long ago he was helping people lined up to 3 days earns 1,000 yuan, he said, as Chinese buyers willing to grab the floor, flower, real estate agents to achieve their goals and are willing to pay someone to do, but he stressed that the 3 Days earned 1,000 yuan feel good make, but it was not him alone, but with another line up with his friends take turns occupying equally.
Mr Kwok said that he is only because of the time and just meet people, so his friends that asked him to stub, but he wanted off the record, after all, what kind of work is not considered professional work, and he was in China over the past boss, a lot of people know him, which they see him earn this extra money, do not feel good.
Although often help people to different pre-sales center line, but Mr Kwok said that, like yesterday, the town of Bosa uncompleted railway line on-site confusion, it is quite rare.
Guo said that, in fact, to take the extra money, he had checked the weather forecast, know that tomorrow or the day there is snow chance, but "have been promised to friends, has been unable to go back."
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:41 am 157
One more: http://www.mingpaotor.com/htm/News/20110216/tbh1….
again, Chinglish translation:
"In addition, he said, the developer launched the first 80 buyers a 1.9% loan rate, quickly attracted more than 2,000 people registered to see "pre-show."
"District Wai Keung, said he actually hired people to help line up, just had an appointment only ranked 17 and 18, two days, did not think he took yesterday after a sales center building has been waiting for, he came to see per hour to see more and more people line up and had to add themselves to line up. He said that the major is to help guests line up a 80-year-old, after all, is 80 years old, not tired him to line up."
Gotta give credit to these buggers. Pay a handful of actors and the lemmings join the line. The greed is alive and well.
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:14 am 158
It was good to hear CBC radio this morning report about the line-up forming at the Olympic Village.
They made it absolutely clear that the people in the line-up WERE BEING PAID to be there by real estate agents.
At least one news organization reports all the facts.
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:37 am 159
@Best place on meth:
Hopefully it gets reported in the 6 o'clock news as well.
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:41 am 160
CBC Radio interviewed a lawyer from Harper Grey last evening with regards to the Olympic Village. He stated that the City of Vancouver is making any prospective buyer sign a waiver stating they won't be able to sue the City of Vancouver for any deficiencies in the buildings, units or site in general. He also mentioned that the entity that "owns" the Village is a shell company with no assets so that route would be out for compensation if need be. He also said the warranties run out in September 2011 – all these facts point to a "run don't walk" if anyone is actually thinking of buying into the hype.
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:44 am 161
Someone posted on Greater fool a link for the submission of a complaint to the CRTC.
http://www.crtc.gc.ca/rapidsccm/register.asp?lang…
My complaint submitted this morning in regard to that bullshit pre-sale condo line up in Metrotown last night with the people paid to line up.
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:54 am 162
February 2011 month-end projections
Days elapsed so far 12
Days remaining 8
5 Day Moving Average: Sales 157
5 Day Moving Average: Listings 297
SALES
Sales so far 1828
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1254
Projected month end total 3082 +/- 391
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 3449
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 2373
Projected month end total 5822 +/- 140
Sell-list so far 53.0%
Projected month-end sell-list 52.9%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of February 16, 2011 12195
MoI at this sales pace 3.96
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:58 am 163
@patriotz: "The OV didn’t sell because it was priced too high (which is the same reason why anything doesn’t sell) and that is precisely the reason Rennie why has dropped the prices."
If someone has a link/info on exact pricing on the OV when it comes out, post it here and we'll throw it up as a new post.
If Rennie does get this one away he's worth his weight.
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:01 am 164
@patriotz:
That's exactly it. The product mix at the Olympic Village was wrong. There isn't enough high end demand in a gentrifying neighbourhood. In ten years, that type of product might be in demand, but not yet. The neighbourhood needs to get built out first. So yes, it's all about prices and they need to come down to meet the real demand for this area.
But you can't take this as being a negative indicator for the overall real estate market in Vancouver. I actually look at it and come away with a positive view. What it shows is that consumers are more intelligent than they are given credit for. The consumer can clearly see that this development was overpriced.
Another thing to be aware of is the amount of development about to occur in this area. Take a picture today and compare it to one five years from now. It will blow your mind. Trust me on this.
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:13 am 165
@vancouverite: re lawyer from Harper Grey: This is good for COV as nobody can come back to the media saying they weren't aware. Its on the public record.
Even though I'm not a Vancouver resident or taxpayer, I wish Rennie all the best on this. We will all be affected in some way by a financially burdened COV. For instance, people from all over go to places like Stanley Park.
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:16 am 166
@Dave: "Take a picture today and compare it to one five years from now. It will blow your mind."
I think we can all agree on that!
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:17 am 167
@N: @N:
:Oh, believe me, I’ve done my homework. I have a family member with a disability. In the States, other than communicable diseases, the only restriction is if the person is, through their health problem, likely to be dangerous or become a public charge. By public charge, they mean fully institutionalized, and by likely, they mean almost certain."
So they will let you in a and grant you full healthcare coverage for free by the state? Not a chance, that's the point. In Canada the tax payer picks up the tab, in the US they may let you in but you better have private insurance or else you are on your own. BIG DIFFERENCE.
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:18 am 168
170 jesse Says: "I think we can all agree on that!"
You think wrong.
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:24 am 169
@Dave, "I bury my gold and silver in the backyard for this reason."
Where do you live?
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:30 am 170
Hey bears, just wondering if you've started working on some new reasons why the market's not crashing? The new mortgage rule deadline is in March, so not much time left.
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:34 am 171
Discussion at coffee break today – topic: real estate…
People bragging about their house / condo and how rich they feel.
Then somebody mentioned the OV. Nothing wrong with the local market! The OV is all about marketing incompetency. It will sell now that it is priced right. Everything is for the best.
Then somebody who just bought a place asked: "has anybody since the price roller coaster @ vancouver condo info?" Silence. Blank faces. Hmmmmmm. We must go back to work.
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:40 am 172
@Troll:
You answered your own question:
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:41 am 173
@vancouverite:
"He also said the warranties run out in September 2011"
They don't have a standard 2-5-10 warranty? I thought they were required by law on new constructions?
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:50 am 174
So according to the Vancouver Sun, a 566sqft STUDIO at the OV, after price reduction is $420,000. Yikes.
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:53 am 175
@Troll: "some new reasons why the market’s not crashing?"
It is crashing, just not in certain cities!
"Vancouver is different" was just recently added to the official Buddhist Theravada discourse. Consider adopting it.
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February 17th, 2011 at 3:23 am 176
@Anonymous:
By backyard, I meant in Stanley Park.
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February 17th, 2011 at 3:25 am 177
OV
Would someone actually drop 1mm on a condo b/c their was a line up. WTF if people are that stupid they deserve to be separated from their money!
On another note as much as I appreciate the rational bear argument – and I do – I held my nose and bought a peice of land in Dunbar (I say that because there's not much to the house) early last year. A place around the corner on a arguably less attractive lot just sold for 35% above what I paid. There were eleven bidders! As I don't want too move it's just good RE porn but how long can this go on and at what point do the bears admit rational or not as a speculative investment they've been wrong?
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February 17th, 2011 at 3:27 am 178
@Troll:
RE is crashing all over the province and the cracks are heading straight for Vancouver.
In Greater Van, benchmark prices are down over the past 9 months and sales have been very weak.
When sales were dead in Summer the pumpers were saying "wait for fall"….when sales were dead in the fall, the pumpers were saying, "wait for January"…but sales were dead in January. Just now we're seeing a minor surge because of a few morons trying to beat the new rules and somehow you think it's party time again??
Once we get to April and sales completely die off, nobody will take the pumpers seriously when they say, "wait for fall"…you'll be all out of mulligans, and the panic selling will commence.
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February 17th, 2011 at 3:37 am 179
@IT__Pro: 2008 called, they want their post back.
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February 17th, 2011 at 3:40 am 180
@jesse:
Right, I forgot, it's crashing in Florida and well Vancouver is Florida so by extension it's crashing here.
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February 17th, 2011 at 3:53 am 181
@XXX:
When rents rise so that historical price/rent is restored without a drop in nominal prices.
Nobody ever has to buy, so the bears never have to be right about prices. We only have to be right about rents.
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:00 am 182
For the record -
The whole Burnaby Line-up/Global TV story archived with a collection of relevant images, quotes, posts and letters; from GlobalBCTV, VCI, greaterfool, VREAA:
"Burnaby Condo Presale Lineup – More Shameless RE Promotion Presented As 'News' By Global TV"
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Rm
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:05 am 183
My friend reports the lineups are back at Sovereign.
Also heard it was hailing haha
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:17 am 184
@Troll: "it’s crashing in Florida and well Vancouver is Florida so by extension it’s crashing here"
Oops not so fast. I'll pick some closer locales: Whistler, Kelowna, Nanaimo, and Seattle. Vancouver can do whatever it wants. I'm concentrating on where the sirens are going off, and these days it ain't Vancouver.
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:19 am 185
@XXX, "A place around the corner on a arguably less attractive lot just sold for 35% above what I paid." and "how long can this go on"
"How long can this go on" is certainly the $64 question. Many of us (myself included) have been suckered in to buying those cheap Chinese-made crystal balls, instead of the exorbitantly-priced hand-polished Zeiss ones that are increasingly difficult to source, so we've made some bad predictions as a result. Still, one never knows ….
Possibly you will do well on this. Location, location, location? Land appreciates, buildings depreciate?
It's possible we'll all still be here when you sell, even if it's a few years from now. So when that happens, please do let us know how much your gain/loss is, after considering expenses and opportunity costs (even at paltry CSB rates).
The "proof of the pudding is in the eating"?
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:20 am 186
@patriotz:
That's a silly expectation because price to rent doesn't drive the market. Affordability and cap rates drive the market.
Your metric will require a return to historic interest rates and a return to historic cap rates. Over the coming decades, we will eventually get back there. But, is a normalization 5 years out? 10 years? 20 or even 30 years? If normalization happens quickly, then prices will fall quickly. If it happens gradually, then prices will hold or keep increasing.
So basically, your bet is that interest rates will rise quickly killing affordability, which in turn drives prices down. But what does the bond market tell us? Normalization is a long ways out. 20 year bonds are LOW. Very low.
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:28 am 187
@Dave: "20 year bonds are LOW"
The yield curve convexity indicates they won't be low for the next 20 years though.
Not that the markets are comparable, but San Diego has affordability at historic lows (price-payment ratio) yet prices are still falling, even with all the incentives given to owners and 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Not exactly lining up with your conjecture that "affordability … drives the market". If you think cap rates drive the market, the Olympic Village, even after 30% price drops, is at a 3.5% cap rate. Not exactly the best investment unless you're betting on appreciation.
Let us know how many you pick up.
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:29 am 188
@Troll, "just wondering if you’ve started working on some new reasons why the market’s not crashing?"
Sorry, we haven't and won't; there's still a great deal of life left in the reasons we've been postulating. Here's a rhyme for you. I'd sing it for you if it were possible, but I trust you understand I can't because it's a blog. Sorry; just imagine I'm singing it to a pleasant melody intended for a child's mind:
Be patient, be patient;
Don't be in such a hurry …
'Cuz when you get impatient,
You only start to worry!
Are you worried? I'm not. Time is on my side. Patience is on my side. Patience is a virtue. Do you have any virtues you'd like to tell us about?
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:31 am 189
@Troll:
………@IT__Pro: 2008 called, they want their post back.
……
Even if you don't agree with what he's saying, it was still a good line. LOL!
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:36 am 190
Just saw Bob Dugan of CMHC on BNN.
CMHC believes real estate will match inflation for the next several years. Why?
Labour market is positive — we've regained all of the jobs lost during the recession — and low inflation rates.
OK brainiac, if our economy is doing so well, and it is, and unemployment continues to drop don't you think BOC will be raise rates?
Our rates are going to be a lot higher than these geniuses predict due to inflation. Its already rearing its ugly head and it's only just begun.
How will the housing market fare when the rate is at 5%, 7% or 9%?
Household debt at 100K and debt-to-income at 150%.
Good luck people!
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:37 am 191
I just read the province article about the OV and loved the descriptions they used:
<a href="http://www.theprovince.com/news/fraser-valley/Mixed+reviews+sale+viewers+check+discounted+suites+Olympic+Village/4298226/story.html" rel="nofollow">Province OV article
Highlights include:
it feels spacious, unlike many others in the claustrophobic cluster
…a tiny 473-sq.ft. studio apartment
For me as a person, the neighbours are too close for my comfort
…only glass separates most balconies from their neighbours, making cigarette smoke, barbecues and parties a compulsory sharing experience
…master bedroom was too small to fit in a queen-sized bed or even a bureau
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:43 am 192
190 Dave Says: "Affordability and cap rates drive the market."
Both of which are at historically low levels.
/Queue Dave's SOP angry and dismissive you-know-nothin' retort.
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:55 am 193
@jesse:
If you think interest rates are going up 4 to 5 percent in the next five to ten years, would you buy a 20 year bond that yields only 5%?
The bond market is huge. Do you think that volume of money would chase such a 'low' return if there was a significant risk of higher rates?
Like it or not, 3.5 to 4% is the cap rate for downtown Vancouver condos. I'm not buying any myself because it doesn't meet my strategy. If I was sitting on millions and could wait it out ten years, I would buy some. I do believe that there is long term value in the Olympic Village. In ten years, that's going to be a cool place to be. There will definitely be a good market for high end units around that time. 30% off is a good deal for some people, but not me.
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February 17th, 2011 at 4:56 am 194
@Anonymous:
@Troll:
………@IT__Pro: 2008 called, they want their post back.
"Even if you don’t agree with what he’s saying, it was still a good line. LOL!"
You're joking right? Since that joke broke on SNL 15yrs ago, it's been one of the most over-used/over-played jokes ever since…yawn.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:00 am 195
@Manna from heaven:
It must be fun playing chess with RE bulls considering their inability to think beyond one move ahead.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:07 am 196
@Manna from heaven:
I debunked the household debt myth a few weeks ago. If Pope would change this silly voting system, or give me an exemption, I could send you a link to read up on it. If you are truly interested in reality, rather than picking a 'side' or a 'team', it's worth considering.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:07 am 197
@Anonymous:
>>>Even if you don’t agree with what he’s saying, it was still a good line. LOL!<<<
Yeah, right up there with Rob Schneider's photocopy guy.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:13 am 198
I don't want to live in Canada if Harper makes it automatic jail sentence to be in simple possession of marijuana. I am selling up all my properties and moving to Costa Rica or South America where I can be more free.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:13 am 199
@Best place on meth: Or what about that timeless standard "[your choice of insulting noun] says 'what'?"
Dave, provide the link to the debt analysis. I'll post another comment with the link so that it (presumably) doesn't get voted down into (since we're on a 1990s kick, let's give Mike Tyson some props] "Bolivian."
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:14 am 200
@Anonymous: That was me…
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:15 am 201
Coming soon to Vancouver… Mike Fotiou just put this up on his blog, here are a bunch of sales in Calgary this month and what they previously sold for:
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2011/02/17/ove…
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:16 am 202
200 Dave Says: "I debunked the household debt myth a few weeks ago."
Why waste your time with VCI votes when you could be out courting Nobel?
"If Pope would change this silly voting system, or give me an exemption…"
FFS.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:18 am 203
@Anonymous:
Sorry but it all got voted into nothing.
The quick story is that the debt isn't all consumer debt. Rather, the growth in debt is more reflective of corporate and investment debt. It shows up as consumer debt because it's easier for small businesses to access consumer financial products (e.g. HELOC's) in comparison to a corporate loan.
The debt financing ratio should also be looked at and it is still quite low from a historic perspective. In the early 90's this ratio was much higher, yet our economy continued to grow. In other words, the amount of debt financing was not a drag on economic growth.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:19 am 204
@202 Tom Says: "I don’t want to live in Canada if Harper makes it automatic jail sentence to be in simple possession of marijuana."
I think it's awesome. Voters might finally pull their heads out and realize what a slimy, incompetent, bank-fellating despot they elected.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:25 am 205
@Dave:
Is that the one where you said Canadian households carefully take on manageable debt to wisely invest for higher return and growth, unlike those lousy Americans who pissed it away on bling, vacations and granite?
I guess Vancouver is not the only thing that wants to be "different".
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:29 am 206
@Tom: you and me both amigo
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:32 am 207
@CanuckDownUnder:
Ha ha ha, Calgary down up to 35%.
And that's a city with head offices and real money.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:41 am 208
@209 Devore: No, nothing that believable. As I recall, Dave claims without attribution or data that the bulk of consumer debt stems from HELOCs used for business development purposes and therefore doesn't constitute 'real' personal debt, no matter what the lender might believe.
The mental image I get reading his posts is always of little false rationalizations paid to line up in front of pre-determined conclusions.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:42 am 209
Thanks for the link!
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2011/02/17/ove…
I really like that comment:
"I sold the townhouse in June of this year for 305K.
After detailed calculations of all costs, i concluded I made $1400 over the course of the 4 year investment."
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:52 am 210
@fixie guy: Ah! I was right!
Now, what do we suppose those wise Canadian debtors are investing in… stocks are out, because everyone knows that's just a casino where fat cats go to stick it to the little guy. No no… must be banks! No, we know those "hi interest" accounts don't pay enough for lunch money. And then the taxman takes half. Bonds? Not enough return to cover the loan.
Oh, I know! It's real estate investment! It's all those income properties that are cashflow positive and pay for themselves that I keep hearing about. Yup, borrowing money backed by real estate to invest leveraged 20:1 into real estate. I mean, what could possibly go wrong? If by some chance interest rates go up another 1-2%, and prices drop 10-15% by the end of the year, you can just tell the bank not to worry, it's still well within your "flat range".
Wait, did I just describe a Ponzi scheme?
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:57 am 211
At this very moment there are 444 west side houses for sale.
Cue the curse guy.
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:59 am 212
Dave, what happens to the housing market when BOC raises rates to 5%, 7% or 9% over the next several years?
Pick a number any number but one significantly higher than today's rate.
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:12 am 213
Hiring is picking back up. Google is hiring again, and trying to make a big push in Canada.
EXCEPT VANCOUVER ISN'T ON THE LIST. Only Montreal, Waterloo, & Toronto. Even Google knows where the bargain prices for employees are. Cost of living in Vancouver makes for a less competitive employment market.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/te…
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:13 am 214
Negative marketing for OV
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Local_News/BC/1317…
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:14 am 215
@Dave:
"If Pope would change this silly voting system, or give me an exemption…"
1) I think you are half the reason people want Pope to keep the system as is.
2) Holding data hostage to try to get Pope to change the system? Smells to me like you don't have anything worthwhile to show.
3) You are a proven liar and cheat, so I highly doubt anyone here will take what you say at face value unless you can back it up with an actual source.
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:16 am 216
@XXX:
Let me get this straight. You bought last year at peak. You live in a land value (ugly, rat infested, moldy) house paying how much per month? Maybe $8000 plus maintenance plus your down payment?
You ask when the bears will admit being wrong? It doesn't matter what house prices do, they have got more right than you, and most bears are living in a nicer place at a fraction of the cost. You could probably rent your house for under $2500 per month. I wouldn't even consider living in such as shxt hole even if it was free.
I can't understand people who buy these tear downs to live in on the Westside. You pay a million plus for a house that is about as nice as a poverty level house in any other city. Only a person living in Vancouver could be proud of living in such shxt hole. Tulip mania all over again.
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:19 am 217
@Manna from heaven:
"Dave, what happens to the housing market when BOC raises rates to 5%, 7% or 9% over the next several years?"
Dave doesn't believe in rate hikes. He does believe in the Real Estate Fairy though.
Dave is like most Vancouverites, he lives in a land of magical thinking where the money will keep flowing indefinitely. He also believes that our local economy has become detached from economic fundamentals. He has yet to come up with a single explanation that is both true and unique to Vancouver.
But he keeps lying… Oh I meant trying! Damn those Freudian slips.
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:26 am 218
@painted turtle: This lawyer, Wesley McMillan, should be added to the "good guys" list.
Finally, someone coming out with some truth.
http://www.harpergrey.com/professionals-mcmillan….
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:30 am 219
@mflat:
>>>Hiring is picking back up. Google is hiring again, and trying to make a big push in Canada.
EXCEPT VANCOUVER ISN’T ON THE LIST.<<<
It's no surprise that business doesn't want to come here.
Even the royal newlyweds will be visiting various parts of Canada for their honeymoon but not BC, Alberta is as far as they go.
Don't they realize that this is the Best Place on Earth and everyone wants to be here?
You GOTTA be here!
Stupid royals.
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:47 am 220
Renting,
I've been in the market since 94 in T.O.. I was lucky with my timing there … I could pay all cash for my place but will decide what to do in 5 years when my taxpayer subsidized mortgage comes due (patriotz understands what I mean by subsidy but if you don't I'm not explaining it. I've looked at rentals in the westside and to get the equivelent place would be @5k per month which equals my mortgate + taxes + 1k a month for incidentals. I've put in two new bathrooms and a new kitchen + a new roof + its been painted (some by me) + electrical (some by me). Place looks great!
I've been reading this blog for many years and ONCE AGAIN I identify with the rationality of your arguments but at what price will you admit you fucked up. If you couldn't pull the trigger when the market went no bid a couple of years ago my guess is you never will. Renting is great if you can handle the uncertainty. I have a young family and I'm willing to pay for community and I don't want a landlord telling me I can't put in a new garage or a pool or a retractable roof for that matter.
Don't be so bitter – you made the right choice for you and I made it for me. So far it's worked in my favour but it's a long game.
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:48 am 221
@Renting:
"You live in a land value (ugly, rat infested, moldy) house paying how much per month? "
Did XXX say it was rat infested or moldy? No, you just made that up.
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:55 am 222
Sorry about all the errors in my last post. I didn't proof read it b/c I was pissed about "rentings" post.
4028 west 34th accepting bids on Monday. My guess is 2.35mm
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February 17th, 2011 at 6:56 am 223
And Dave, you keeping up with the news?
http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/c50-increas…
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:01 am 224
@BPOM, "Ha ha ha, Calgary down up to 35%."
I checked Mike Fotiou's overall stats and I don't see "down up to 35%." If I look at the prices (avg, medium, $/sqft) both SFH and condos, over the past 12 months, I wouldn't want to make any predictions about the market. I know what I wish, but I wouldn't want to predict it's going down.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:02 am 225
@Manna from heaven:
In my opinion, interest rates are not going to go up substantially over the next few years. If they were to go up substantially, then it will take a chunk out of current pricing. It's easy to predict and calculate by looking at affordability. I am glad to see that many bear analysts have come around to doing such calculations. For example, VHB is now crunching such numbers. He showed that recent mortgage changes could take 10% off prices. Hard to argue with that.
The bond market has already accounted for moderate increases in the overnight rate. This is demonstrated by the big spread between the current overnight and 5 year rates.
Looking past the rate increases already accounted for (i.e. next year and beyond), I don't see a significant rise in rates because the long bond market doesn't. If you feel differently, and if you want to short Vancouver real estate, then go ahead and short the long bond. Bet against the market and the billions in smart money.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:03 am 226
@IT__Pro: ……
You’re joking right? Since that joke broke on SNL 15yrs ago, it’s been one of the most over-used/over-played jokes ever since…yawn.
……
What part of 'was still a good line' did you miss?
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:03 am 227
@XXX:
Congrats on your purchase, I love the area and would live in a tear down in that area over a mansion anywhere else, even not so far out as the East side. However, I have one issue with your post. You said market rent equivalent for your place would be $5k a month. Well from previous posts I thought you said you bought a modest house on the westside?? Even if you gave it a 100% total reno job you would not get $5k a month. $5k a month would be one HELL of a house, not a modest house.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:04 am 228
@Devore:
How does this conflict with anything I have said?
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:10 am 229
@Drachen:
1. I don't post spam. I keep it clean. I don't accuse people of being shills, liars or cheats. I stay on message and I contribute an insider view. Too bad some of you dummies don't see value when you see it. I have a proven track record with my predictions. I deserve an exemption. I should be given moderator status.
2. I have lots to contribute. I provide a very coherent explanation a few weeks ago regarding debt levels and debt service ratios. I can't replicate the back and fourth discussion. So it's silly to have my content deleted.
3. Liar and Cheat? Hardly.
How's this for a source:
Drachen, October 2, 2008… "IF the market regains and holds over half it's losses (I'd insist on real dollars but because these events will transpire in the next couple of years it's not likely to be a big factor) before dipping below 20% then I will admit [that Dave is] right."
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:12 am 230
I also object to having the same colour doily as Drachen. I want a better colour or my own avatar.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:16 am 231
233 Dave Says: "2. I have lots to contribute. I provide a very coherent explanation a few weeks ago regarding debt levels and debt service ratios. I can’t replicate the back and fourth discussion. So it’s silly to have my content deleted."
Its fatal flaw was a complete lack of foundation in reality. That's why it was voted to oblivion.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:16 am 232
Dave,
I'm betting on higher inflation and have positioned myself accordingly. However, I like to take long positions as I've never been comfortable with shorting. Trade has been working my way.
What's your bet and how are you going to take advantage of it?
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:18 am 233
@Dave:
A few posts back you also said you "debunked" the household debt theory. Total crock of shite. In your own mind you think you did, but you did nothing of the sort. I remember that day well. Just a tip, bantering on about what you think is a rationalization is not the same as debunking something. You made up a theory about HELOCs and business loans and now you say you debunked it?
As well I think that's about the 5th or 6th time I have seen you quote that post from Drachen a few years ago. Is it permanently on your clip board?
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:19 am 234
@Dave: "If you think interest rates are going up 4 to 5 percent in the next five to ten years, would you buy a 20 year bond that yields only 5%?"
Think of the long bond as a snake digesting a deflationary rabbit. Long rates account for near term and long term inflation. As the snake digests the near-term deflation through its system, long rates slowly increase.
That may be what's happening recently, as long rates have been slowly moving up.
You're betting on a very specific outcome if you believe rates are staying low for 20 years.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:23 am 235
@DaMann: +1
I'm still waiting for the debunking.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:28 am 236
@XXX:
Tear downs don't go for 5K per month. If you bought last year you are paying about triple to own. I have done the math.
You mean like a pig with lipstick?
When rents rise enough to equal the cost of owning. Which means they have to triple in your case. Isn't going to happen
Bad guess. I actually owned in 2008. I have owned several places over the past 20 years. All sold now as it makes no sense to not have cashed out.
There is less uncertainty with renting and much more with owning. All you need to do with renting is sign a lease for the terms that meet your needs. With owning there are countless risks.
You get to live in the same community renting. Just in a nicer house at a lower cost.
If you want any of that stuff as a renter you either rent a place with it in the first place or move to a place that has it. It is easier and cheaper than doing yourself.
I am not bitter. I live in a nice place, with no debt and money in the bank. You on the other hand…
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:33 am 237
@CelicaMan:
Haven’t you seen the Italian Job? Get a Mini and do up the suspension.
I think it’s borderline whether a car could function carrying 1,500 pounds. I think an SUV or truck would do it though.
I bury my gold and silver in the backyard for this reason.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:36 am 238
Strong demand for Olympic village condos stuns realtor
More than a third of buyers willing to spend upwards of $1 million
By Jeff Lee, Vancouver Sun
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Strong+demand+Olympic+village+condos+stuns+realtor/4298461/story.html#ixzz1EEMeixsE
I guess the marketing machine is starting up again. I don’t know what the current pricing per square foot is, but I remember at over 1000/sq ft construction costs, it was really expensive.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:36 am 239
Well bears, I was at the provincial budget lock-up yesterday, and once again the Finance Minister
mentioned housing starts as a key indicator of economic strength, along with a recovering employment rate, consumer spending above pre-recession levels( retail sales of $4.95 billion in Nov 2010 versus $4.92 in June 2008), improved exports since mid-2009 ($2.4 billion in November 2010 versus $1.9 billion in May 2009 and $3 billion in October 2008).
They had a nice little graph showing how “housing starts are closer to historical levels,” as in September 2008 they were 40,500; 11, 200 in March 2009; and now 30,000 in December 2010, for a whopping 167% increase from their lows of March 2009.
To the Province’s credit, they acknowledged that one of the top five risks to recovery for BC was the “unexpected moderation in Canadian housing prices.” Now someone has either identified that things are a little frothy in RE, or else they are acknowledging that they are pinning their hopes on the onward and upward appreciation of homes and the steady demands for new ones (via lumber sales, but the industry has really shifted to Asian markets now). Either way, quite interesting.
As an aside, I was in line behind Helmut Pastrick, Chief Economist for Central Credit Union, to use the washroom. They made us wait because you cannot mix media, with stakeholders, even in the washroom, before the Minister’s speech (new SOP for some reason). I was literally going to ask him how he can view himself as credible given his flip flop predictions on the direction of the market. Alas, my bodily needs won out over giving him a hard question, and I simply joked about how long we had been in line for. Maybe at next year’s lock-down.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:50 am 240
@DaMann:
No, I have a bunch of wildlife mounted in my office. One of my collection is a black bear. For fun, I named the bear Drachen and put a plaque with his name beneath it. Just below that is a piece of paper that has that quote printed on it. Whenever I need a laugh, I look up a Drachen and he just stares back at me with this empty look.
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:54 am 241
No, I have a bunch of wildlife mounted in my office. One of my collection is a black bear. For fun, I named the bear Drachen and put a plaque with his name beneath it. Just below that is a piece of paper that has that quote printed on it. Whenever I need a laugh, I look up a Drachen and he just stares back at me with this empty look.
****
Okay…this was actually pretty funny
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:54 am 242
@Government Relations Guy:
Oh, and Government Relations Guy adds, "It's different here."
HA HA HA HA
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:00 am 243
This morning on the French CBC news:
1 – “Actors” are paid to line up at the OV !
2 – The OV did not sell because of negative marketing (i.e. the mayor was not positive enough about the project).
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:01 am 244
"In my opinion, interest rates are not going to go up substantially over the next few years. If they were to go up substantially, then it will take a chunk out of current pricing"
Low rates didn't help the cities that popped. Or ZERO rates in a place like Japan, either.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:06 am 245
@AG Sage
Oh, and Government Relations Guy adds, “It’s different here.”
HA HA HA HA
****
Hey Dumbass, try reading the post a little more closely.
Government Relations guy is not saying its different here, he is saying THE PROVINCE is "hoping that its different here."
And He was going to call out Helmut Pastrick for being a dumbass RE pumper that has no credibility
I honestly don't know how you think he was giving a bullish sentiment.
Thanks for the Province's view GR – nice to see they are spinning the numbers and relying on a strong housing market to keep the ship afloat!
_____
…they acknowledged that one of the top five risks to recovery for BC was the “unexpected moderation in Canadian housing prices.” Now someone has either identified that things are a little frothy in RE, or else they are acknowledging that they are pinning their hopes on the onward and upward appreciation of homes and the steady demands for new ones…
______
…I was literally going to ask him how he can view himself as credible given his flip flop predictions on the direction of the market….
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:09 am 246
@CRASH JPMorgan-Chase – Buy Silver:
Yes but you have to remember people buying bars of silver are paranoid. They think the government will take it from them. Gold would have been a lot easier to hide.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:10 am 247
>Maddock Says:
February 17th, 2011 at 4:06 pm
>Hey Dumbass, try reading the post a little more closely.
Really? I read it twice. I think it was the intro, "well bears," that tilted it from the outset.
I guess I blame the wine.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:11 am 248
Here is what 3K gets you in Dunbar. Looks like a notch up from land value. And 3K is asking rent. Rent is always negotiable.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2208473…
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:12 am 249
craigslist says your wrong I just went through it.
triple to own ?!? so your saying I could have the equivalent for 1700 a month – WTF?
Lipstick on a pig – When I grew up in the west side that was called a reno.
ask any west side realtor almost everything over 10 yrs old is priced at land value.
If you owned in 2008 the metrics weren't much different – You can't have it both ways you were either dumb then or dumb now.
think "COMMUNITY" in a broader context – it doesn't just mean location. You obviously don't value kids walking to school with there friends, walking to the local, borrowing your neighbours tools etc.
Just moving costs a lot of money and is terribly disruptive.
I have no net debt either.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:18 am 250
renting
That's like calling just west of Main street the westside. Find me one between Crown and Dunbar, 34th to 38th with a view and 4 bedrooms up.
That place looks like student housing.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:22 am 251
@Government Relations Guy:
"retail sales of $4.95 billion in Nov 2010 versus $4.92 in June 2008"
Wow, it kinda scares me that to find "growth" in retail sales, the government will go as far to compare the summer shopping lull of 2008 (June) to peak X-mas shopping season of 2010…. and even then, it's pretty close.
Personally, I would count that as a loss due to the fact that inflation would probably make up the bulk of that "increase." Consumer confidence my ass.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:27 am 252
Your interpretation is correct Maddock.
My reference to bears meant "fellow bears," hence why I pointed out that Helmut's crappy pumper messaging and the Province's reliance on strong housing starts continued market appreciation.
I tried to give some background info on the purported economic underpinnings of the Province.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:28 am 253
Vancity Guy
“retail sales of $4.95 billion in Nov 2010 versus $4.92 in June 2008″
Wow, it kinda scares me that to find “growth” in retail sales, the government will go as far to compare the summer shopping lull of 2008 (June) to peak X-mas shopping season of 2010…. and even then, it’s pretty close.
yes – lots of cherry picking from the data to paint a picture coupled with some choice words
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:32 am 254
@Dave: I contribute an insider view
Could you expand on that statement? Haven't you repeatedly claimed you're not an insider?
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:33 am 255
@Dave:
Smart money? You make it sound like these guys are never wrong and never lose any money. If they are so prescient, tell me, what was the 20 year rate 10 years ago? 5 years ago? What was the 20 year rate in 1980? What will be the 20 year rate in 10 years?
Fact is the 20 year rate changes all the time, as do all rates, in response to all kinds of short term and long term factors, some of them having nothing to do with interest rates or inflation expectations. If it was perfect (or even remotely close to perfect) for predicting future interest rates, there would be no risk in the markets whatsoever.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:34 am 256
@/dev/null:
No, I never claimed not having an interest in real estate. I do. I denied being a realtor or a shill.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:37 am 257
@xxx:
I agree with you full well on living on the westside, I love it there and really wouldn't want to live anywhere else. I sold my place so I could move back to the westside and rent.
Anyways having said that, two things. Craigslist prices are wishing prices, they are routinely 20-30% over reality. Second, I side with renter on the $5k a month.
You claimed " I bought a piece of land" cause the house wasn't worth much. No way a "land value" house on the westside goes for $5k a month, not a chance. Either you bought a huge place that is old and a tear down, or you bought a really nice place and our version of land value is miles appart. I could rent many a nice house on the westside for $2500 a month that I would love to own, although they would be old and rough. $3k I could easily and I mean easily rent a "today's market price" $2 million dollar home. I have lived on the westside for 20 years with the exception of my 3 years of owning, I know the rental market very well.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:41 am 258
245 Boombust Says:"Low rates didn’t help the cities that popped. Or ZERO rates in a place like Japan, either."
Dave will keep playing that old tune, ignoring all the other components that factor into his prize metric of monthly payments like minimum down payment, maximum terms and availability of government backed mortgage insurance.
Then of course there's the extent to which rapid and unsustainable appreciation drives demand, on which we'll remain silent even while arguing HELOCs are going back into the real estate market, and as you point out the minimal effect of rates in other crashing markets.
And still, after all that, he gets unfairly voted down. Hard to fathom.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:42 am 259
@Devore:
Markets are wrong all the time. That said, money brings honesty like nothing else. There are billions upon billions of dollars in long bonds that are saying inflation and interest rates are going to stay low for at least the next decade. Don't shoot the messenger. Just look at the numbers yourself.
The interest rate curve is sloped for the very reason you state… risk. The longer you tie your money up, the greater the risk you are taking. And what are those risks? Inflation and rising interest rates (i.e. opportunity cost). And how is the market pricing that risk? Low. That means the market thinks interest rates and inflation are going to be low.
It's also worth noting that the bond market is viewed as being the most accurate for predictive ability.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:44 am 260
@Dave: I contribute an insider view
@/dev/null: Could you expand on that statement?
It's the view from inside the orifice where his head is perpetually lodged.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:46 am 261
Dave, how well did the bond market in 1981 predict the yields for 1982/3?
Huh? What dat?
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:47 am 262
Dave,
Can you please address why low interest rates did not save Japan, the US, Ireland, etc… and the list goes on?
Can you please explain why low interest rates don't mean anything when it comes to a speculative investment?
Or at least can you acknowledge that you are completely avoiding addressing this issue?
Patriotz' No. 1 fan
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:53 am 263
Da Mann
see mls listing 4028 west 34th. There basement is a little nicer than mine but 30k would put us equal. My house has more square footage and a much better layout (I have a second fireplace in my main floor office. This house is priced for its land and I'll let you know what it sells for on Tuesday. Look at the pictures on the and tell me what you honestly think it would rent for? That place that Renting posted is not even close. You would have people parking in front of your place to go to the liquor store or grabbing some timbits. Hell the new halfway house multiplex is a couple blocks away if you need a fix. I actually advocated renting to my wife but everything we looked at was either a dump, small or very expensive. Tell me what you think.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:55 am 264
@xxx:
Add up all your housing expenses over the past year divide by 12 and yes you could easily rent at 1/3 I bet. Don't forget opportunity cost on the down payment.
Yes a reno on a worthless POS
I don't think so. BTW I would never ask a realtor anything if I wanted the correct answer.
I didn't buy in 2008 and didn't advocate buying then. I just hadn't sold yet.
Your grasping. You can do all of those things while renting and have money left over to give your kids a better education, take nicer vacations, etc.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:59 am 265
@261 1 Says: "Dave, how well did the bond market in 1981 predict the yields for 1982/3?"
Simple. "Markets are wrong all the time", bond markets are always right. The sound of one market clapping…
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:01 am 266
@xxx:
The asking is 2.1 Mil. Mortgage payments with 5% down would be $10000 per month plus $500 per month property taxes, plus maintenance.
You can get a place like that for 3.5K rent easily. That is less than 1/3. And when interest rates go up it gets worse.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:05 am 267
@patriotz’ No. 1 fan:
Big questions. I don't claim to have all the answers. I'm not an expert on Japan, the US or Ireland. But, I'll give it a try anyways.
1. RE: Japan, US, Ireland… Speculation in Japan and Ireland was very, very high. Ireland and the US were way overbuilt and the high inventory prevent a price recovery despite low interest rates. Japan had less of an overbuilding issues, but their price levels were extremely high and they reacted too slowly to the crisis. Their shrinking population and demographics don't help either. Here in BC, we don't have rampant speculation. We don't have high inventory and construction levels. And we don't have a demographic or shrinking population.
2. RE: Interest rates and speculative investment… I don't understand what you are asking here.
3. RE: Avoiding issues… Ask away.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:08 am 268
@1:
Extremely well. Imagine buying a 10 or 20 year bond in 1981.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:10 am 269
Extremely well. Imagine buying a 10 or 20 year bond in 1981.
****
Its true. My parents bought a crap load of bonds at those rates, and the returns pretty much deterred them from investing in anything else for many many years. They rode those returns for over a decade.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:23 am 270
@Dave:
"There are billions upon billions of dollars in long bonds that are saying inflation and interest rates are going to stay low for at least the next decade. Don’t shoot the messenger. Just look at the numbers yourself."
Ha-ha, too funny there you go again, a little knowledge is dangerous.
Stick to pumping RE. You have made a fool of yourself so many times with your silly inflation/interest rate musings, “Dave” inflation has been creeping into inputs for some time already!
Check out the prices of basic metals etc.
You were probably too busy selling junk in East Van to notice the parabolic price movements, and missed the boat, especially with metals.
But that said, your target clients aren’t the bears on this blog, so we will likely still make a good living, for a while yet.
But as they say you can fool some of the people all of the time, some of the people…….
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:23 am 271
@Dave: I denied being a realtor or a shill.
Specifically, you denied that a significant portion of your income is derived from real estate. So you volunteer your time as an insider?
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:30 am 272
@Dave
Are you sure "we don't have a demographic or shrinking population"?
https://sites.google.com/site/bchousingmarketshif…
Not only that, the word on the street lately is everyone's going back to alberta for work, since BC's losing jobs again.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:36 am 273
New Listings 280
Price Changes 72
Sold Listings 166
12289
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:39 am 274
@xxx: "almost everything over 10 yrs old is priced at land value."
You mean the people setting the marginal price are the builders? The market will pay the same for a 20 year old house as a 60 year old knockdown. I only know one species that does that…
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:40 am 275
269 Sage Adice Says: "Its true. My parents bought a crap load of bonds at those rates, and the returns pretty much deterred them from investing in anything else for many many years. They rode those returns for over a decade."
Kind of misses the point. Your parents making out like bandits at the expense of the bond market proves it did a poor job of predicting future interest rate movements.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:43 am 276
@4444:
I started buying silver at $14/ounce, gold at $675/ounce and palladium at $400/ounce. I didn't miss the boat. The only thing I missed was not going big.
These metals aren't going up because of inflation or the expectation of inflation. Gold is just an alternate dollar to the greenback (the correlation to the US dollar is very high). Silver is getting pulled along for the ride and platinum and palladium are tied to auto production, but also have weird supply constraints.
I maintain that the smart money says inflation and interest rate remain low in the US. For every dollar in gold, you have thousands in bonds. Follow the money.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:44 am 277
Saw that shithead Michael Campbell on Global's 5 o'clock News…
With furrowed brow and a faux-concerned look on his face, he was moaning about the high debt load average Canadians are now faced with.
He even went so far as to explain the increased cost of servicing a mortgage when rates climb.
Such an about-face from a two-face…looks more and more like assholes like him (and F, et al) are covering their asses.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:46 am 278
@fixie guy:
That wasn't the point. A better question would have been how did the 1972 ten year bond do? Or how did the 1962 twenty year bond do? Not good. Markets aren't infallible.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:47 am 279
Hmmm, could Michael Levy be far behind? Bill Good? Helmut? Somerville? Klump? Muir?
He he…
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:56 am 280
@/dev/null:
I am anonymous for a reason. I won't answer little details about what I do or who I am. Here are the facts… I am not a realtor or shill. I am involved in real estate. Take it or leave it. Either way, it doesn't matter because you should just consider what I have to say. It shouldn't matter if I was a janitor or Bob Rennie.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:58 am 281
Renting
My son and daughter go to great schools. We go on great vacations and summer in the same spot. My place at Whistler is old and has that old whistler smell but I wouldn't trade it for the world. I guess you and I come from a different place … I wake up in the morning happy with the world, with a smile on my face and a positive outlook on life. More importantly I've been able to pass that along to my kids. Good luck
jesse
if you can find a place like that for 3500 a month jump on it. Good luck.
over and out
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:03 am 282
"I am involved in real estate. Take it or leave it. Either way, it doesn’t matter because you should just consider what I have to say. It shouldn’t matter if I was a janitor or Bob Rennie"
-Dave.
I'd trust most janitors most of the time over you. A lot of them probably don't have the, shall we say, "vested interests" that you and your friend Bob have.
Now, buggar off.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:03 am 283
@Dave:
Bond yields remain low because of QE1/2. Without QE money flowing in yields would be much higher.
In other words the markets money isn't flowing into bonds like it seems. The Fed is pumping it in there. We will see how long the Fed can artificially keep the bond rates down. My guess is less than a year. It certainly won't be forever as you predict.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:04 am 284
I agree with Dave, he SHOULD get an exemption from the down arrow.
Could we please get a "fucking idiot with delusions of grandeur" 3rd button that registers a minus 5 with each click?
If it can be made to look like a small puckered brown circle that would be ideal.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:05 am 285
@Dave:
It doesn’t matter why prices of primary materials have gone up.
What matters is that primary materials have gone up in price, and it shows up in the price of finished products.
Food inflation is already a global problem.
Interest rates will go up.
The purchasing power of especially Canadians has been eroding that is partially the reason for high debt levels.
The basic economics ½ hr lesson during your realtor course would have not given you enough knowledge to realize the seeds of stagflation have been planted.
“Dave” this is out of your league; you can’t have in depth knowledge by listening nw98.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:05 am 286
@Dave:
"Take it or leave it. Either way, it doesn’t matter because you should just consider what I have to say. It shouldn’t matter if I was a janitor or Bob Rennie."
Dave listens to janitor advice with the same respect as he would any other person. Regardless of the topic or person's education/specialty/line of work. Wow, you must be a fool.
haha. Dave and his delusions of grandeur.
He believes he should be a moderator and should be immune from the downvotes.
You're quite the character Dave. You seem to think you 'rule' this blog. It's sad that you are so far detached from reality. But I'm listening to you Dave.
Don't get too mad Dave. If you must you can downvote me, but please, only once. your 'friends' need not participate. (It's childish and immature)
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:18 am 287
Agent Will is surprised with the SFH market strength: This has NEVER happened before
Good questions. One possibility is that builders and flippers are becoming more active in the market. Note how westside inventory is still rising (or at least it was last week!), indicating while things are "crazy" there is still more inventory piling on. It could also be same properties are turning over fast while some are more stagnant.
I have not seen confirmation who's actually buying detached properties these days, not even anecdotes beyond builders and flippers. I'm going to look at for-sale properties that are "lingering" in more detail to understand why they may not have sold yet.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:19 am 288
I must be KONFUZED…tonight on Global's 6 o'clock NEWZ, they profiled the "discounts" at the OV…Rennie and pals were in full regalia.
Chris Gailus, in that Seattle-sounding accent of his said there was competition in the 'hood. "A glut of condos" on the market.
Damage control from yesterday's nonsense re: the Sovereign?
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:23 am 289
@xxx:
Sounds like money is no object with as you have millions in net worth paying cash for your places in Dunbar and Whistler. Then you come on VCI and ask the bears when they will admit they were wrong. You are tracking sales down the street in Dunbar frothing at the asking prices and bidding wars.
Don't you have somehting better to do? This is what you teach your kids. Sorry, I am not sure you describe your outlook on life very well and I don't think you are setting a good example for your kids.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:24 am 290
@Boombust:
My jaw dropped when they said "there's a glut of condos in Vancouver".
There must have been a lot of pissed off e-mails sent to Global last night about their blatant real estate pumping.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:31 am 291
@xxx:
Another cheerleader wearing a bear suit.
You don't fool anyone.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:37 am 292
"@Boombust:
My jaw dropped when they said “there’s a glut of condos in Vancouver”.
There must have been a lot of pissed off e-mails sent to Global last night about their blatant real estate pumping."
As we know, they ARE about as shameless as Marilyn Chambers. Do you really think the e-mails "did it"?
Or, could it be that there was a HUGE "Battaile Royale" in the NEWZ Room, with fisticuffs and fingerpointing, to present the "situation" as it really is?
Dave? Over to you.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:41 am 293
@4444:
Food inflation isn't a Canada or US problem, nor will it be. Core inflation in Canada is where the banks want it to be. Call me when inflation gets above 3%. Until then, interest rates are doing SFA.
Gold, silver, palladium and platinum are not primary materials.
Don't assume that those with different opinions know less than you. Gold bugs and bears definitely share a holier than thou pseudo-intellectual chip on their shoulder.
I'm selling my gold at $2,100, silver at $45 and palladium at $1,000. You will hold them until well after the crash. Trust me on this.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:42 am 294
xxx said:
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:42 am 295
xxx said:
I hear you, brother. I had been borrowing tools from my agreeable neighbours for a few months up until the day…[cue ominous music] they found out I was renting my place. Since that day, they refuse to rent their tools to me, I'm no longer invited to local potluck dinners, etc.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:46 am 296
@Renting:
Is that why Canadian bonds are low? Has Ben been buying our bonds up too?
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:47 am 297
@Dave:
I don't think the RE cheerleaders know less than me.
I just think they're lying.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:49 am 298
@patriotz:
Paranoid much? I don't think you are lying.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:49 am 299
Dave "I’m selling my gold at $2,100, silver at $45 and palladium at $1,000."
Could you elaborate on these numbers? How did you conclude that these are the tops? what is the time frame?
any web sources re PM that you recommend?
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:50 am 300
@oneangryslav2: Oh, and after my sister's family sold their house in Coquitlam in August, my sister had to start driving her children to school, even though the place they're renting is about 500 metres closer. I'm going to pass on your message to her, xxx, so that she'll understand that once she signs on the dotted line of a residential mortgage again, her kids will once again be able to walk to school.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:51 am 301
All of you are sad … Have a good life obsessing about RE and the stupid people who own it.
Deleting this website from my bookmark so you can circle jerk in peace!
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:56 am 302
@Dire Straits:
For gold, the same inflation adjusted value from the early 80's, or just under. For silver, a 50:1 gold to silver ratio and using the early 80's inflation adjusted gold value.
For palladium, just a guess. It broke a $1000 in the early 90's. I think the other metals will pull it up a bit more.
Web sites: Kitco, Gold Eagle, Prudent Bear, Gold is Money
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:56 am 303
"I’m no longer invited to local potluck dinners, etc."
Not even the one at the corner of Burrard and Davie?
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:57 am 304
@xxx:
Sigh… don't go. Now it's just me and Troll.
Enjoyed it while it lasted.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:57 am 305
@xxx:
Fuck you too.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:00 am 306
@Dave:
>>>I’m selling my gold at $2,100, silver at $45 and palladium at $1,000. You will hold them until well after the crash. Trust me on this.<<<
How much are you asking for your Nobel Prizes in Economics?
I'll take 4.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:03 am 307
@Best place on meth:
The difference between you and me is that I actually contribute something. You are just one step above realpaul.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:03 am 308
SEATTLE — Few believed the housing market here would ever collapse. Now they wonder if it will ever stop slumping.
Housing Market Looks Sickest in Cities That Once Seemed Immune
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:04 am 309
@Dave:
Yes Dave, you contribute comedy.
Thanks.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:06 am 310
@xxx:
You're right, xxx; I am sad…ever since my neighbours stopped lending me tools on account of their finding out that I am a renter. "But, but, but…you look so normal" one of my neighbours was heard to splutter, upon learning the tragic news.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:08 am 311
@Dave:
Dave you are a fake
“Gold, silver, palladium and platinum are not primary materials”
“Dave” there you go flaunting your ignorance and superficial knowledge.
Again “Dave” you fabricated and argument to fit your answer.
I did not mention the precious metals did I?
Those are more susceptible to mere speculation –just like Vancouver RE.
Check out the price of Moly, Nickel, and Copper to name a few.
These have industrial applications.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:12 am 312
@xxx:
Who is obsessing about real estate?
You, who drops 3 Mill on a tear down in Dunbar and a shack in Whistler or a bunch of people who refuse to pay such ridiculous prices for it.
I think you got it wrong on who has the obsession.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:13 am 313
A hamfisted attempt to analyze Van West data in the forum:
West side detached — what's the deal with that?
I did a quick analysis of Van West listings data, looking for any trends that may indicate who is buying, and what types of properties are not selling.
This is an attempt to answer a question posed by VHB a few days' back, trying to resolve the "hottiness" of the market on one hand, with the increase in listings on the other, coupled with listings that are "stagnant" and not selling.
Please chime in if you have anything decent to contribute.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:15 am 314
Pope, I think this webpage is at a crossroad. A handful of dummies are polluting your blog with negativity and hate. You can either clean it up, or let it further degrade into a stew of vitriol.
IMO… You need to remove the arrows or get a sheriff. I would be happy to volunteer for the position and remove this criminal element.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:18 am 315
@Dave:
Are you writing from a mental facility?
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:22 am 316
thanks Dave.
any time frame to reach these prices? or depends on circumstances.
are you physical or etf guy? (don't worry not looking for your backyard info
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:24 am 317
@xxx, "All of you are sad … Have a good life obsessing about RE and the stupid people who own it. Deleting this website from my bookmark so you can circle jerk in peace!"
Is XXX and xxx the same person? Are there multiple xxx posters? In any case, I'm sorry you feel so greatly offended. We don't circle jerk (not that I'm aware of), but we can certainly be jerks. Anonymity makes it easy.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:29 am 318
@4444:
I just assumed you were a dummy and started to confuse your terms. I assumed that we were both discussing precious metals. In reading through the posts, I can see that you were consistent with your terms. I wasn't building a strawman, so chill out.
With that out of the way… let's follow through your logic.
You are basically saying that high commodity prices will carry over and cause inflation. That's funny because commodities have been in a bull market for a decade now and only just 2.5 years ago we were experiencing deflation. For the last two years, we have been fighting deflation.
If your theory is correct, where is all that inflation that should have built up over 10 years?
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:31 am 319
@jesse:
I think we are seeing speculation back in the market. In 2008 most of the speculators were flushed out. Now the rich chinese myth has the speculators back in the Westside and Richmond.
If a speculator buys a property it posts a sale but then shortly after the property is back on the market increasing listings again. Many may be holding vacant houses for sale at unrealistic prices just waiting for the market to come to their price.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:32 am 320
@Dave:
"IMO… You need to remove the arrows or get a sheriff. I would be happy to volunteer for the position and remove this criminal element."
"Dave" your sense of humor is giving you away.
Will you have the time to run your pathetic blog, will holding the position of sheriff, and who would be your deputy?
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:38 am 321
@Dire Straits:
I haven't actually plotted out the timeline. Gold has gone exponential, so it will increase in value faster and faster. A quick look at the chart and I would say 2 to 3 years. Most people think that silver lags gold, so maybe 6 months to a year after. I think palladium will hit $1,000 before gold or silver hit their targets.
Only physical. My position is actually quite small. Like I said, I caught a small boat and didn't go heavy. Hindsight…
As far as those weblinks go, I probably only believe about 10% of what I read. But, that 10% can be pretty interesting.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:40 am 322
@4444:
I think it would be only fair to have a deputy from the other side. I would vote Patriotz. He usually keeps on topic like me and I would trust that he would be an honest enforcer.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:44 am 323
Dave can you shut the hell up and go away?
Everyone else can we get back on topic?
Does anyone have today's numbers?
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:46 am 324
@Dave:
"I think it would be only fair to have a deputy from the other side. I would vote Patriotz. He usually keeps on topic like me and I would trust that he would be an honest enforcer."
I doubt Patriotz would want to be associated with you; I think Vomitingdog would be a more willing candidate.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:50 am 325
Dave,
China was guilty of exporting deflation.
The U.S. is guilty exporting inflation.
Nuff said.
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:00 pm 326
thanks Dave.
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:01 pm 327
@Anonymous:
Agreed. Exactly my thoughts.
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:03 pm 328
@McLovin:
Paul posted them a couple pages back. Strong day. 60% ratio.
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:07 pm 329
@McLovin:
Watch your mouth, son. There is a new sheriff in town and I am going to set a few of you straight. Yes, that includes Scullboy. Vomitingdog could be a useful Deputy to that end. No, not that end Scullboy.
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:21 pm 330
Great Barney Fife impression, Dave.
Do it again!
What, that wasn't an impression?
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:36 pm 331
@xxx: ……
All of you are sad … Have a good life obsessing about RE and the stupid people who own it.
Deleting this website from my bookmark so you can circle jerk in peace!
……….
This from the guy who only few posts ago said: "I wake up in the morning happy with the world, with a smile on my face and a positive outlook on life. " What a wanker!
On this blog, we've tended to split ourselves into two camps: those who own, and who pump, and those that think owning is trouble (at least at this point in time) and deflate. I think there's actually a third group lurking: those that desperately want to own because they've convinced themselves that the market never goes down, but they don't have any $'s. They're kind of owner ‘eunuchs’. They lurk here trying to pump the market because they see it as their destiny. Any guesses on which camp the above wanker falls in?
Hey wanker; how happy are you about your Whistler dump already tanking by 30~40% with more to come, and your Vancouver dump on the precipice of tanking by 70%? I’ll tell you, I’m very happy and looking forward to seeing you smile every day. And, hang on to that positive attitude; you’re going to draw heavily on it.
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February 17th, 2011 at 12:42 pm 332
". Strong day. 60% ratio."
Still its net 100 new listings.
Listings are growing nicely.
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:22 pm 333
PUMP GLOBAL PUMP ….
' Strong demand for Olympic village condos stuns realtor'
More than a third of buyers willing to spend upwards of $1 million
http://www.vancouversun.com/Strong+demand+Olympic…
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:35 pm 334
February 2011 month-end projections
Days elapsed so far 13
Days remaining 7
5 Day Moving Average: Sales 171
5 Day Moving Average: Listings 296
SALES
Sales so far 1994
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1200
Projected month end total 3194 +/- 251
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 3729
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 2073
Projected month end total 5802 +/- 125
Sell-list so far 53.5%
Projected month-end sell-list 55.0%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of February 17, 2011 12289
MoI at this sales pace 3.85
Sell-list Feb week 1 : 50.0
Sell-list Feb week 2: 49.5
Sell-list Feb week 3 (4 days in): 61.3
Feel the surge.
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:36 pm 335
@McLovin: The *median* Feb sell-list is 68.6%. 60% is not 'strong'. It ain't the end of the world, but it ain't strong.
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:53 pm 336
Four weeks until March 18th. Things are shaping up like last April when we had big sales and huge listings.
Here's what paulb's numbers looked like last April. April 7th was cool!
6-Apr-10 181 392 46.20%
7-Apr-10 364 537 67.80%
8-Apr-10 161 520 31.00%
9-Apr-10 75 300 25.00%
week total 781 1749 44.7%
12-Apr-10 211 341 61.90%
13-Apr-10 169 379 44.60%
14-Apr-10 233 463 50.30%
15-Apr-10 187 292 64.00%
16-Apr-10 152 345 44.10%
week total 952 1820 52.3%
19-Apr-10 89 327 27.20%
20-Apr-10 194 477 40.70%
21-Apr-10 329 481 68.40%
22-Apr-10 241 391 61.60%
23-Apr-10 97 260 37.30%
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February 17th, 2011 at 1:59 pm 337
Warning..Don't Eat Chinese Slave Fish
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.d91e3…
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February 17th, 2011 at 2:16 pm 338
@Dave: "Gold has gone exponential, so it will increase in value faster and faster"
I think it's gone plaid. Thanks for the math lesson on precious metals, real estate expert.
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February 17th, 2011 at 3:18 pm 339
Example of groupthink from the Urban Dictionary: Dave (not our Dave) said to the group 'McDonalds makes the best burgers'. Within a day every other member of Dave's group had repeated the same opinion as if it was fact and started taking their dates to eat Big Macs.
Also from the Urban Dictionary: "Groupthink is a flaccid substitute for actual thought".
There are indeed many thoughtful posters here, but …
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February 17th, 2011 at 3:26 pm 340
@Dave:
Sure Dave,
I also rented a time machine so I could buy a LottoMax ticket with the winning numbers.
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February 18th, 2011 at 12:28 am 341
@XYY: Bears lecturing Dave on groupthink…priceless.
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February 18th, 2011 at 9:05 am 342
[...] Supersogs, at vancouvercondo.info 16 Feb 2011 11:47 am, reprinted a note from Bosa regarding the line-up.. they have changed to a system of “a sequential list of interested parties”: “While we knew that the interest in Sovereign was very healthy, we were surprised to find last night that over 125 clients had elected to begin lining up for our sales event this Saturday. While we anticipated that there would likely be a line-up, we could not have anticipated that it would begin forming so soon, and as a result have elected to modify our plans for the coming days.” [Where did the tents come from? -ed.] [...]
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February 20th, 2011 at 9:22 am 343
[...] at vancouvercondo.info February 17th, 2011 at 4:37 pm – “I agree with you full well on living on the westside, I love it here and really [...]
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