Friday Free-for-all!
The end o’ the week is here and that means it’s time for our regular weekend news round up and discussion thread. Here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:
-A 25% drop in Canadian house prices?
-local realtor bets lunch on higher prices
-Market balanced, signs of ‘strong sellers market’
-Vancouver house price change chart
-City council considers 5 new towers downtown
-Average Victoria house price tumbles
-“Wealth experts” may make you poor
-CIBC’s Tal: Don’t look at your debt to income ratio
-UN warns on food inflation
-When Irish eyes are crying
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
“I was at a Superbowl party yesterday in Burnaby. There was a traffic jam on their street because of an open house on the block.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
February 8th, 2011 at 6:15 am
[...] at vancouvercondo.info February 7th, 2011 at 7:05 am- “I was at a Superbowl party yesterday in Burnaby. There was a traffic jam on their street [...]
February 7th, 2011 at 3:25 pm
More importantly, the same psychology that makes people want to buy when prices are rising, makes people want to wait to buy or not buy at all when prices a falling.
February 7th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
@Dave: "affordability drives the market"
Only at this stage in the cycle. Once the bubble starts to deflate, affordability will take a back seat to fundamentals.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Sitting at home tonight battling, or should I say getting beaten by what I suspect is the Norwalk virus. Anyways now for the good news. Rates go up tomo.
http://www.680news.com/business/article/180401–b…
February 7th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
@space889:
At last, someone who make some sense. We have corruption everywhere. We have it here. Why do you think we have the new Anti Money Laundry law in Canada? At least they have the death sentence and they are not kidding.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:02 pm
@patriotz:
You have shit up your ass. You have no idea what you are saying. Why don't you just shut the F*&K up. Commenting on something that you have no idea about. Are you a Yankee??
February 7th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
@Anonymus:
US
State intervention in Fredie and Fenie, AIG, 4 biggest banks – checked
State intervention in 2 out of 3 car manufacturer – checked
Non existent Regulation of banking, – checked
Foreclosure Gate, non existent rule of law– Checked
Corrupt officials e.g Maddoff former NASDAQ chief – checked
Fed’s debasement of currency – checked
You need more?
I can't agree with you more. The US just tries to sell the idea they are superior when they are not. They have the same problems just like other countries.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:41 pm
@Vanrod: "The majority of buyers in Vancouver are NOT in this position."
Yeah VHB's argument was a marginal one.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
@Vanrod: "but your analysis is amateurish and flawed yet again."
I see you let the daily numbers affect your mood . . .
February 7th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
First time buyers are what drives the market. Without the first time buyer paying inflated prices the move up buyer can't move up as much. I would venture to guess the vast majority of first time buyers are in this position. It will ripple all they up to those trade up buyers who are not maxed out.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:50 am
@VHB:
At least you have come around to acknowledge that affordability drives the market.
The real effect is somewhere between your math and Vanrod's expectation. Split the difference and you won't be far off. Let's call it 5%.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:45 am
@VHB:
"Total drop in max mortgage=9.15%.
Ok, there’s your first 9 % off prices."
Nope sorry wrong again. That is 9 percent off what a buyer using a non-conventional mortgage can afford, and only if they decided to max out.
The majority of buyers in Vancouver are NOT in this position. The affect on prices is arguable, but your analysis is amateurish and flawed yet again.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:35 am
Some math:
1.
100K income
40% TDSR
5-yr posted rate 5.19%
35 yr amm
total max mortgage = 650,221
2. Now pump up the posted rate to 5.44%
total max mortgage = 630,841
3. Now move to 30 yr amm
total max mortgage = 595,735
Total drop in max mortgage=9.15%.
Ok, there's your first 9 % off prices. People have pre-approvals etc, so that won't be visible for a month or two. But it will happen.
February 7th, 2011 at 10:57 am
N says:"bla, bla, bla"
brought to us by propagandized subject of mainstream media.
Just for you N:
http://www.tvo.org/TVO/WebObjects/TVO.woa?videoid…
Empire of Illusion
http://www.tvo.org/TVO/WebObjects/TVO.woa?videoid…
February 7th, 2011 at 10:22 am
@Anonymus:
"You need more?"
Yeah. Go and actually run a business outside of North America sometime. I've never run a business in China, but even in dirigiste France, it is a totally different experience. I've run businesses in Japan (quite free), France (much less so), Italy (even less so, and also very corrupt), the US (nothing could be easier) and Canada (not noticeably different from the US), and I can assure that you have no idea how free and transparent North America is until you try running a business somewhere else. Any comparison of the US and China is just plain silly.
February 7th, 2011 at 10:11 am
CRASH JPMorgan-Chase – Buy Silver Says: "Eric Sprott today"
smart guy.
PM are going to explode.
February 7th, 2011 at 10:08 am
patriotz Says: “China has massive state intervention at all levels of the private sector, a non-convertible currency, next to no transparency in banking, taxation, regulation, etc, little rule of law, etc, etc.”
US
State intervention in Fredie and Fenie, AIG, 4 biggest banks – checked
State intervention in 2 out of 3 car manufacturer – checked
Non existent Regulation of banking, – checked
Foreclosure Gate, non existent rule of law– Checked
Corrupt officials e.g Maddoff former NASDAQ chief – checked
Fed’s debasement of currency – checked
You need more?
February 7th, 2011 at 9:52 am
Eric Sprott today
Ignoring real estate, most people invest their hard earned money in paper things. Stocks, bonds, annuities, insurance – it’s all paper, and it sits nicely in our bank accounts and shows up on our computer screens. Halfway across the world, investors in China and India have never trusted paper investments as a store of value – and they’re converting their hard earned paper money into gold and silver bullion. Not that this is anything new. It isn’t. But the scale and speed with which they are accumulating precious metals IS new, and it’s driving the fundamentals that we believe will lead to higher prices in 2011.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-gold…
February 7th, 2011 at 9:48 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/roubini-…
Roubini Says China, Emerging Markets Face ‘Hard Landing’ Risk
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business…
Hedge funds bet China is a bubble close to bursting
February 7th, 2011 at 9:45 am
@Anonymus:
Hardly. In addition to a very large part of production still coming from state-owned enterprises, China has massive state intervention at all levels of the private sector, a non-convertible currency, next to no transparency in banking, taxation, regulation, etc, little rule of law, etc, etc.
Check out China's manipulation of the rare earth market (particularly with regard to its recent dispute with Japan) for an example.
Don't confuse a callous disregard for the well-being of ordinary people with capitalism. China has had the former in spades from Imperial to Republican to Maoist to the present times.
February 7th, 2011 at 9:45 am
February 2011 month-end projections
Days elapsed so far 5
Days remaining 15
5 Day Moving Average: Sales 132
5 Day Moving Average: Listings 283
SALES
Sales so far 658
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1974
Projected month end total 2632 +/- 681
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 1413
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 4239
Projected month end total 5652 +/- 560
Sell-list so far 46.6%
Projected month-end sell-list 46.6%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of February 7, 2011 11616
MoI at this sales pace 4.41
February 7th, 2011 at 9:42 am
@crashcow: Kidding aside, I do hope the steep decline in sales do continue.
February 7th, 2011 at 9:38 am
http://www.bivinteractive.com/index.php?option=co…
After three years of higher than average volatility, Canada’s housing market is forecast to stabilize over the next couple of years, but faces downward pressures as the economy improves.
February 7th, 2011 at 9:36 am
@jjbink: lots and lots of yardwork.
February 7th, 2011 at 9:33 am
@Patiently Waiting: Didn't you get the memo? It was first weekend after Chinese New Year, the Chinese were spending time with their family.
February 7th, 2011 at 9:23 am
@paulb: Not even us hardcore bears expected a declining sales trend at this time. I'd like to hear some honest market anecdotes.
February 7th, 2011 at 9:18 am
New Listings 283
Price Changes 72
Sold Listings 93
11616
February 7th, 2011 at 9:11 am
N: "No communist country has every had a truly successful economy, and I don’t think that is a matter of coincidence."
another poor soul that is struggling with "ISM" labels. China is more capitalist then US as of today. How's that Government Motors working working for you?
February 7th, 2011 at 9:04 am
"Does no one think that a party would run on a platform of capping immigration levels from various places in order to allow the situation to normalize?"
No party would run on such a platform. The B.C. dream is to sell for huge money to a rich asian or other foriegner and never work again. All home owners want to sell to a rich asian. They want their money like everyone else. When you make a $2,000,000 tax free gain on your house, who cares if the city goes to hell?
February 7th, 2011 at 9:03 am
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
and so…it begins.
thoughts?