Friday Free-for-all!

The end o’ the week is here and that means it’s time for our regular weekend news round up and discussion thread. Here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:

A 25% drop in Canadian house prices?
local realtor bets lunch on higher prices
Market balanced, signs of ‘strong sellers market’
Vancouver house price change chart
City council considers 5 new towers downtown
Average Victoria house price tumbles
“Wealth experts” may make you poor
CIBC’s Tal: Don’t look at your debt to income ratio
UN warns on food inflation
When Irish eyes are crying

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] at vancouvercondo.info February 7th, 2011 at 7:05 am- “I was at a Superbowl party yesterday in Burnaby. There was a traffic jam on their street […]

Renting
Renting
9 years ago

Once the bubble starts to deflate, affordability will take a back seat to fundamentals.

More importantly, the same psychology that makes people want to buy when prices are rising, makes people want to wait to buy or not buy at all when prices a falling.

IT__Pro
IT__Pro
9 years ago

@Dave: "affordability drives the market"

Only at this stage in the cycle. Once the bubble starts to deflate, affordability will take a back seat to fundamentals.

Paulb.
Paulb.
9 years ago

Sitting at home tonight battling, or should I say getting beaten by what I suspect is the Norwalk virus. Anyways now for the good news. Rates go up tomo.

http://www.680news.com/business/article/180401–b

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

@space889:

At last, someone who make some sense. We have corruption everywhere. We have it here. Why do you think we have the new Anti Money Laundry law in Canada? At least they have the death sentence and they are not kidding.

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

@patriotz:

You have shit up your ass. You have no idea what you are saying. Why don't you just shut the F*&K up. Commenting on something that you have no idea about. Are you a Yankee??

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

@Anonymus:

US

State intervention in Fredie and Fenie, AIG, 4 biggest banks – checked

State intervention in 2 out of 3 car manufacturer – checked

Non existent Regulation of banking, – checked

Foreclosure Gate, non existent rule of law– Checked

Corrupt officials e.g Maddoff former NASDAQ chief – checked

Fed’s debasement of currency – checked

You need more?

I can't agree with you more. The US just tries to sell the idea they are superior when they are not. They have the same problems just like other countries.

jesse
9 years ago

@Vanrod: "The majority of buyers in Vancouver are NOT in this position."

Yeah VHB's argument was a marginal one.

VHB
VHB
9 years ago

@Vanrod: "but your analysis is amateurish and flawed yet again."

I see you let the daily numbers affect your mood . . .

Renting
Renting
9 years ago

The majority of buyers in Vancouver are NOT in this position.

First time buyers are what drives the market. Without the first time buyer paying inflated prices the move up buyer can't move up as much. I would venture to guess the vast majority of first time buyers are in this position. It will ripple all they up to those trade up buyers who are not maxed out.

Dave
9 years ago

@VHB:

At least you have come around to acknowledge that affordability drives the market.

The real effect is somewhere between your math and Vanrod's expectation. Split the difference and you won't be far off. Let's call it 5%.

Vanrod
Vanrod
9 years ago

@VHB:

"Total drop in max mortgage=9.15%.

Ok, there’s your first 9 % off prices."

Nope sorry wrong again. That is 9 percent off what a buyer using a non-conventional mortgage can afford, and only if they decided to max out.

The majority of buyers in Vancouver are NOT in this position. The affect on prices is arguable, but your analysis is amateurish and flawed yet again.

VHB
VHB
9 years ago

Some math:

1.

100K income

40% TDSR

5-yr posted rate 5.19%

35 yr amm

total max mortgage = 650,221

2. Now pump up the posted rate to 5.44%

total max mortgage = 630,841

3. Now move to 30 yr amm

total max mortgage = 595,735

Total drop in max mortgage=9.15%.

Ok, there's your first 9 % off prices. People have pre-approvals etc, so that won't be visible for a month or two. But it will happen.

Anonymus
Anonymus
9 years ago

N says:"bla, bla, bla"

brought to us by propagandized subject of mainstream media.

Just for you N:
http://www.tvo.org/TVO/WebObjects/TVO.woa?videoid

Empire of Illusion
http://www.tvo.org/TVO/WebObjects/TVO.woa?videoid

N
N
9 years ago

@Anonymus:

"You need more?"

Yeah. Go and actually run a business outside of North America sometime. I've never run a business in China, but even in dirigiste France, it is a totally different experience. I've run businesses in Japan (quite free), France (much less so), Italy (even less so, and also very corrupt), the US (nothing could be easier) and Canada (not noticeably different from the US), and I can assure that you have no idea how free and transparent North America is until you try running a business somewhere else. Any comparison of the US and China is just plain silly.

Peperoni
Peperoni
9 years ago

CRASH JPMorgan-Chase – Buy Silver Says: "Eric Sprott today"

smart guy.

PM are going to explode.

Anonymus
Anonymus
9 years ago

patriotz Says: “China has massive state intervention at all levels of the private sector, a non-convertible currency, next to no transparency in banking, taxation, regulation, etc, little rule of law, etc, etc.”

US

State intervention in Fredie and Fenie, AIG, 4 biggest banks – checked

State intervention in 2 out of 3 car manufacturer – checked

Non existent Regulation of banking, – checked

Foreclosure Gate, non existent rule of law– Checked

Corrupt officials e.g Maddoff former NASDAQ chief – checked

Fed’s debasement of currency – checked

You need more?

CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
CRASH JPMorgan-Chase
9 years ago

Eric Sprott today

Ignoring real estate, most people invest their hard earned money in paper things. Stocks, bonds, annuities, insurance – it’s all paper, and it sits nicely in our bank accounts and shows up on our computer screens. Halfway across the world, investors in China and India have never trusted paper investments as a store of value – and they’re converting their hard earned paper money into gold and silver bullion. Not that this is anything new. It isn’t. But the scale and speed with which they are accumulating precious metals IS new, and it’s driving the fundamentals that we believe will lead to higher prices in 2011.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-gold

painted turtle
painted turtle
9 years ago

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/roubini-
Roubini Says China, Emerging Markets Face ‘Hard Landing’ Risk

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business
Hedge funds bet China is a bubble close to bursting

patriotz
9 years ago

@Anonymus:

China is more capitalist then US as of today.

Hardly. In addition to a very large part of production still coming from state-owned enterprises, China has massive state intervention at all levels of the private sector, a non-convertible currency, next to no transparency in banking, taxation, regulation, etc, little rule of law, etc, etc.

Check out China's manipulation of the rare earth market (particularly with regard to its recent dispute with Japan) for an example.

Don't confuse a callous disregard for the well-being of ordinary people with capitalism. China has had the former in spades from Imperial to Republican to Maoist to the present times.

VHB
VHB
9 years ago

February 2011 month-end projections

Days elapsed so far 5

Days remaining 15

5 Day Moving Average: Sales 132

5 Day Moving Average: Listings 283

SALES

Sales so far 658

Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1974

Projected month end total 2632 +/- 681

NEW LISTINGS

Listings so far 1413

Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 4239

Projected month end total 5652 +/- 560

Sell-list so far 46.6%

Projected month-end sell-list 46.6%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Inventory as of February 7, 2011 11616

MoI at this sales pace 4.41

jjbink
jjbink
9 years ago

: Kidding aside, I do hope the steep decline in sales do continue.

painted turtle
painted turtle
9 years ago

http://www.bivinteractive.com/index.php?option=co

After three years of higher than average volatility, Canada’s housing market is forecast to stabilize over the next couple of years, but faces downward pressures as the economy improves.

crashcow
9 years ago

@jjbink: lots and lots of yardwork.

jjbink
jjbink
9 years ago

@Patiently Waiting: Didn't you get the memo? It was first weekend after Chinese New Year, the Chinese were spending time with their family.