Friday Free-for-all!

The end o’ the week is here and that means it’s time for our regular weekend news round up and discussion thread. Here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:

A 25% drop in Canadian house prices?
local realtor bets lunch on higher prices
Market balanced, signs of ‘strong sellers market’
Vancouver house price change chart
City council considers 5 new towers downtown
Average Victoria house price tumbles
“Wealth experts” may make you poor
CIBC’s Tal: Don’t look at your debt to income ratio
UN warns on food inflation
When Irish eyes are crying

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

25% drop? not a chance.U better worry your future while so much chance hopping in the market. Buy a house now to secure your retirement.

Iliterate Trolls
Guest
Iliterate Trolls

@Anonymous: What the hell are you saying? Wipe the snow off your nose and write it again.

asia man
Guest
asia man

@anonymous. got any left? friday free for all yaahh hooo LOL

blueskies
Guest
blueskies

just love the "you are not in debt as much as you think meme……..

OK so you owe a sh*load of money
we will re define "sh*t" and "load"
now don't you feel better?

Dan in Calgary
Guest
Dan in Calgary

@Dave in previous thread, regarding Santa Claus and regarding The Star headline, "Housing prices to drop 25%, forecaster predicts". I was wrong about Santa. He actually is coming back, with lumps of coal for the bulls and price drops for the bears.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

"Another flaw in the debt-to-income ratio is that it lumps together people who have no debt with those who are heavily indebted. So you get seniors who have paid off their mortgages combined with Vancouver and Toronto residents and their mega-mortgages."

I sometimes wonder how Tal got through university. If anything, what he says actually makes the case for sounding the alarm on how badly off Canadians are, How bad? Worse than the Americans.

Take away from the equation the inflated asset values of the old folks who paid 1/10th of today's appraised values in the bubble markets, and Canadians are in a heap of trouble.

Tal, you are not as amateurish as some of our local pimps, but you are embarrassingly close.

I think Carney said recently that prices come down, but debt endures.

AG Sage
Member

@tpfkaa: Re:35% drop bet with inlaw in previous thread.

I would say, no, don't triple the bet. That's pretty close to the margin and what you are betting on is random chance. But that's my take, YMMV.

What generally happens as markets fall is the shoppers on the fence jump in when it goes down a few percent and their optimum style of home suddenly doesn't have a bidding war. They cause a glitch in the decline. So, while 35% over two years may be a reasonable drop, it's borderline in this situation that it will actually materialize. More decline than that is going to require time for the follow-on recessionary effects to take hold. That's 3-4 years.

VHB
Member
VHB

Five year has spiked over last week by quarter point. Mortgage rate hike soon?

VHB
Member
VHB

And remember: everyone has to qualify using the 5yr rate, even if you take a different one.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Big job gains across Canada except for BC where the unemployment rate jumped sharply again from 7.6 to 8.2

We now have the worst unemployment rate outside the Maritimes.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canada+gains

BOC rate hikes should resume shortly.

BoB
Guest
BoB

Hey all knowing bears have you seen this headline:

How much has the value of your Metro Vancouver home increased in five years?
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/business/422

Ahh 2006 the year the bears were CONVINCED Vancouver real estate was about to plunge! The bears comments, views, etc. sound much the same today as they did then (but with even MORE conviction…)

BoB
Guest
BoB

Hate to point it out bears but Muir and all the "vested interests" have a record that is 10x better than any of your predictions!

Dave
Member

@BoB:

Very true. You would think that might humble some people.

Dave
Member

@Dan in Calgary:

How many missed the once a decade BC real estate correction that happened two years ago?

In the unlikely event that prices drop 25%, I have a feeling that many will miss that opportunity as well.

Craig
Guest
Craig

@ BPOM – #10:

I was driving home from work this morning, and happened to catch Mr. Levy's report on the unemployment numbers.

I'm not sure if I was overly tired, but his message sounded a bit odd to me… Something along the line of: 'The increase in unemployment (+.06% in BC to 8.2%) supports the notion that our economy is improving.' Further: 'less discouraged people means more employment seekers re-joining the labour force.'

Can someone explain this rationale? (without me feeling as though I've stepped into a new reality, where down is up).

Not much of a name..
Guest
Not much of a name..

@Dave: So the next correction won't happen until 2018?

browntown
Guest
browntown

ooh yeah nutslaps! Mike Stuart realtor back a sign heralding next leg up! aussy market now underwater! browntown say markit could be flat like prairie market!

AG Sage
Member

@BoB: Oh, your sweet sweet tears will taste so delicious.

BoB
Guest
BoB

Hey AG Sage your tears HAVE been sweet – keep waiting for mine!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@BoB:

"How much has the value of your Metro Vancouver home increased in five years?
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu…..story.html&quo…

Those certainly are impressive numbers. Can't say I wouldn't want a piece of that action.

Can you look at any markets today and find me the same kind of opportunity today?

It doesn't have to be real-estate. I have a bunch of money that I would like to double in 5 years.

Your recommendations and analysis of the opportunity would be appreciated.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@Craig: It only makes sense if there is sufficient job creation to lure people back into the labour force. If someone is not actually looking for work, they apparently aren't considered apart of the unemployment stats.

Increased unemployment could also be because people are losing their jobs.

joycer
Member
joycer

@BoB: David Lerah had an awesome track record too…

Good thing it's different here.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@Patiently Waiting: Oh yeah, another cause of more people looking for work could be exhaustion of unemployment benefits, savings, severance etc.

BoB
Guest
BoB

I just throw my comments out for the newbies to consider. I've been reading these blogs for years and agree the market is out of whack however the bears record of trying to predict Vancouver real estate prices has been absolutely PATHETIC for YEARS. I think the bears "all knowing" predictions will come true eventually but what year that happens I'm not so sure. I'm also not convinced that when the time comes that renting for many years will have been the right choice.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

Found this deep down inside the Sun article:

Notable employment gains were seen in Ontario and Alberta, though there were declines in British Columbia and New Brunswick.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canada+gains

BC is seeing a higher unemployment rate alongside a DECLINE in employment. It appears Levy is full of BS (nothing new).

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