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Friday Free-for-all!

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The end o’ the week is here and that means it’s time for our regular weekend news round up and discussion thread. Here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:

–A 25% drop in Canadian house prices?
–local realtor bets lunch on higher prices
–Market balanced, signs of ‘strong sellers market’
–Vancouver house price change chart
–City council considers 5 new towers downtown
–Average Victoria house price tumbles
–“Wealth experts” may make you poor
–CIBC’s Tal: Don’t look at your debt to income ratio
–UN warns on food inflation
–When Irish eyes are crying
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Anonymous
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25% drop? not a chance.U better worry your future while so much chance hopping in the market. Buy a house now to secure your retirement.

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7 years 4 months ago
Iliterate Trolls
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@Anonymous: What the hell are you saying? Wipe the snow off your nose and write it again.

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7 years 4 months ago
asia man
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@anonymous. got any left? friday free for all yaahh hooo LOL

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7 years 4 months ago
blueskies
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just love the "you are not in debt as much as you think meme……..

OK so you owe a sh*load of money
we will re define "sh*t" and "load"
now don't you feel better?

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7 years 4 months ago
Dan in Calgary
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@Dave in previous thread, regarding Santa Claus and regarding The Star headline, "Housing prices to drop 25%, forecaster predicts". I was wrong about Santa. He actually is coming back, with lumps of coal for the bulls and price drops for the bears.

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7 years 4 months ago
Anonymous
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"Another flaw in the debt-to-income ratio is that it lumps together people who have no debt with those who are heavily indebted. So you get seniors who have paid off their mortgages combined with Vancouver and Toronto residents and their mega-mortgages."

I sometimes wonder how Tal got through university. If anything, what he says actually makes the case for sounding the alarm on how badly off Canadians are, How bad? Worse than the Americans.

Take away from the equation the inflated asset values of the old folks who paid 1/10th of today's appraised values in the bubble markets, and Canadians are in a heap of trouble.

Tal, you are not as amateurish as some of our local pimps, but you are embarrassingly close.

I think Carney said recently that prices come down, but debt endures.

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7 years 4 months ago
AG Sage
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@tpfkaa: Re:35% drop bet with inlaw in previous thread.

I would say, no, don't triple the bet. That's pretty close to the margin and what you are betting on is random chance. But that's my take, YMMV.

What generally happens as markets fall is the shoppers on the fence jump in when it goes down a few percent and their optimum style of home suddenly doesn't have a bidding war. They cause a glitch in the decline. So, while 35% over two years may be a reasonable drop, it's borderline in this situation that it will actually materialize. More decline than that is going to require time for the follow-on recessionary effects to take hold. That's 3-4 years.

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7 years 4 months ago
VHB
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Five year has spiked over last week by quarter point. Mortgage rate hike soon?

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7 years 4 months ago
VHB
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And remember: everyone has to qualify using the 5yr rate, even if you take a different one.

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7 years 4 months ago
Best place on meth
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Big job gains across Canada except for BC where the unemployment rate jumped sharply again from 7.6 to 8.2

We now have the worst unemployment rate outside the Maritimes.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canada+gains…

BOC rate hikes should resume shortly.

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7 years 4 months ago
BoB
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Hey all knowing bears have you seen this headline:

How much has the value of your Metro Vancouver home increased in five years?
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/business/422…

Ahh 2006 the year the bears were CONVINCED Vancouver real estate was about to plunge! The bears comments, views, etc. sound much the same today as they did then (but with even MORE conviction…)

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7 years 4 months ago
BoB
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Hate to point it out bears but Muir and all the "vested interests" have a record that is 10x better than any of your predictions!

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7 years 4 months ago
Dave
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@BoB:

Very true. You would think that might humble some people.

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7 years 4 months ago
Dave
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@Dan in Calgary:

How many missed the once a decade BC real estate correction that happened two years ago?

In the unlikely event that prices drop 25%, I have a feeling that many will miss that opportunity as well.

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7 years 4 months ago
Craig
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@ BPOM – #10:

I was driving home from work this morning, and happened to catch Mr. Levy's report on the unemployment numbers.

I'm not sure if I was overly tired, but his message sounded a bit odd to me… Something along the line of: 'The increase in unemployment (+.06% in BC to 8.2%) supports the notion that our economy is improving.' Further: 'less discouraged people means more employment seekers re-joining the labour force.'

Can someone explain this rationale? (without me feeling as though I've stepped into a new reality, where down is up).

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7 years 4 months ago
Not much of a name..
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@Dave: So the next correction won't happen until 2018?

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7 years 4 months ago
browntown
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ooh yeah nutslaps! Mike Stuart realtor back a sign heralding next leg up! aussy market now underwater! browntown say markit could be flat like prairie market!

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7 years 4 months ago
AG Sage
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@BoB: Oh, your sweet sweet tears will taste so delicious.

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7 years 4 months ago
BoB
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Hey AG Sage your tears HAVE been sweet – keep waiting for mine!

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7 years 4 months ago
Anonymous
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@BoB:

"How much has the value of your Metro Vancouver home increased in five years?
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu…..story.html&quo…

Those certainly are impressive numbers. Can't say I wouldn't want a piece of that action.

Can you look at any markets today and find me the same kind of opportunity today?

It doesn't have to be real-estate. I have a bunch of money that I would like to double in 5 years.

Your recommendations and analysis of the opportunity would be appreciated.

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7 years 4 months ago
Patiently Waiting
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@Craig: It only makes sense if there is sufficient job creation to lure people back into the labour force. If someone is not actually looking for work, they apparently aren't considered apart of the unemployment stats.

Increased unemployment could also be because people are losing their jobs.

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7 years 4 months ago
joycer
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@BoB: David Lerah had an awesome track record too…

Good thing it's different here.

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7 years 4 months ago
Patiently Waiting
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@Patiently Waiting: Oh yeah, another cause of more people looking for work could be exhaustion of unemployment benefits, savings, severance etc.

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7 years 4 months ago
BoB
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I just throw my comments out for the newbies to consider. I've been reading these blogs for years and agree the market is out of whack however the bears record of trying to predict Vancouver real estate prices has been absolutely PATHETIC for YEARS. I think the bears "all knowing" predictions will come true eventually but what year that happens I'm not so sure. I'm also not convinced that when the time comes that renting for many years will have been the right choice.

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7 years 4 months ago
Patiently Waiting
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Found this deep down inside the Sun article:

Notable employment gains were seen in Ontario and Alberta, though there were declines in British Columbia and New Brunswick.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canada+gains…

BC is seeing a higher unemployment rate alongside a DECLINE in employment. It appears Levy is full of BS (nothing new).

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7 years 4 months ago