Friday Free-for-all!
Hey! It’s weekend time and that means it’s time for our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion on all things economy and real estate. Here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:
-Olympic Village: Will you buy ‘em at 50% off?
-Olympic Village trapped in vicious hollow circle
-How will rising interest rates affect house prices?
-RBC predicts stronger economy will offset rate increases
-Race-baiting from the air: local realtors take a helicopter ride outnumbered by media
-In 2003 there were 35 China born White Rock residents, 1425 from UK
-Shiller “a little bit worried” about Canadian housing market
-TD: BC debt to income at 160%, “most vulnerable” province
-$10 Trillion destroyed so far in US bubble burst
-Dubai prays for housing market recovery
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
February 10th, 2011 at 7:20 pm 1
rich people aren't stupid
stupid people don't get rich
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February 10th, 2011 at 8:30 pm 2
Silly math for Australian renters:
I have no debt and a term deposit representing 1/3 of my net worth about to expire. Do I renew at 6.3% for 180 days or at 6.6% for one year?
P.S. Thanks for the new oven landlord. Love you! xxx
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February 10th, 2011 at 11:21 pm 3
I think the problem with the Olympic Village development is that mainland China buyers simply can't appreciate the cum stains when flying over the buildings by helicopter. Take the Sydney Crosby suite for example, the sights and smells of that gently used unit have to be appreciated first hand – boots on the ground.
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February 10th, 2011 at 11:30 pm 4
Interesting read and another preview for Canada?
Fannie, Freddie Phaseout Proposed
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052…
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:02 am 5
Jeez, another day and another real estate pump story on the front page of the Sun website… Those guys are relentless slaves to their realwhore masters!
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:07 am 6
@Eddie:
And what a lead:
"Despite Vancouver's high real estate price, there are still several neighbourhoods where detached homes can be found for well below the $1 million mark…"
Well goodness gracious me, under a million you say? Better act fast, heaven knows, such bargains will not last.
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:37 am 7
@BoB: Since Carney is an ex Goldman Sachs VP aka tentacle #48 on the squid, he will probably follow Geithner's lead and wipe out the CMHC as well. Soon after the banks will have to lend their own money, (God forbid, can you imagine such an atrocity?! their OWN damn money!) House prices would quickly correct to 3-5 times average incomes. Good luck re-financing all you 0/40 ers and 5/35 ers.
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:44 am 8
A couple of people commented yesterday that the % sold at or above list would be more useful by community. Here's a sample.
Detached House – Last 14 days
Van West – 41%
Richmond – 39%
Van East – 32%
N Van – 26%
W Van – 17%
Surrey – 10%
And since its all over the news;
S Surrey / White Rock – 13%
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:47 am 9
"Four of the city’s top Chinese realtors were flown from Richmond to White Rock on a HeliJet to observe what you can only see from the air – White Rock’s proximity to Richmond"
Yes, you can only see that proximity from the air.
Or by using Google Earth.
Or a regular map.
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:53 am 10
And for the condo lovers:
Residential Attached – Last 14 Days
Van West – 18%
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February 11th, 2011 at 1:01 am 11
@Seymour Data: Fascinating. Thank you.
Looks like we may have a real segmented market here for the moment. Can such a thing last? Or will those VW buyers suddenly realize that the same money gets them a much better place in WV?
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February 11th, 2011 at 1:20 am 12
But can one make a statement that the market is hot by just using the numbers of list/over list sales? Aren't sales for the month currently running at a below average pace and listings are mounting, rapidly?
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February 11th, 2011 at 1:22 am 13
#15 VHB Says: "Looks like we may have a real segmented market here for the moment."
I still don't see how we can conclude this without comparing original listed price to local comparable properties. Want to see 100% sold over ask? List all homes at $1. Does this data reveal an important market dynamic, a new marketing approach, or even the early stages of a market bolt for the door? Sellers pricing low to take profits in expectation of a correction fits this data just as well as oh-my-god-the-mainlanders-are-coming.
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February 11th, 2011 at 1:25 am 14
@VHB: I too am fascinated by the number of people willing to pay above asking for what is most likely the biggest purchase of their life. I think it really speaks to the psychology of the market.
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February 11th, 2011 at 1:29 am 15
@Not much of a name…: Good points. I just started looking at this data and don't have my head around it yet. But if you look at my post yesterday the % sold at or over lists correlates pretty well with rising or falling prices. My guess is it is a good indicator of what is happening right now but maybe not at good as MOI for what will happen in the coming months. However, the ratio does have one advantage in that it seems to not be affected by seasonality.
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February 11th, 2011 at 1:29 am 16
@VHB:
This data doesn't have much relevance in the bigger picture and the bigger picture is sales, listings and MOI.
A micro market in real estate can hold out for a short time but eventually follows the broader market.
The broader market is flashing a "SELL" sign.
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February 11th, 2011 at 1:32 am 17
@Seymour Data: I should have added that yes your data is fascinating. It's just another way of looking at the market. Keep up the good work.
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February 11th, 2011 at 1:32 am 18
Finally snapped and wrote my MP and MLA today. So pissed off about not being able to afford a home here to raise a family. My wife and myself have good incomes, but taking on a 600k mortgage would be sheer insanity. The White Rock article seriously pissed me off. Tired of reading about our properties being sold to wealthy Chinese buyers who don't live here or add any value to our communities. The people that work hard and add value get seriously screwed over by this… I'm seriously considering moving to somewhere like San Diego where I can get a higher paying job and a much nicer house.
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:03 am 19
@Best place on meth: "This data doesn’t have much relevance in the bigger picture and the bigger picture is sales, listings and MOI."
Not to put too fine a point on it, but over/under list turns out to be highly negatively correlated to MOI. The most fascinating part of these data is that it verifies how list prices are "upwards sticky" in a bear market. We knew this as "common knowledge" but this is the first time it's been put in analytical form.
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:14 am 20
selling over-list has a lot to do with marketing.
Friends sold a condo in the summer of 09. Their Realtor had them list 60k under comparables. His reasoning was that there were so many places on the market and people can only visit so many open houses. So, to get more interest, they listed lower and due to this, had a huge number of people show up for the open house and sold it the next week for higher than comparables.
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:21 am 21
@jesse: Interesting. What I'm hoping is that knowing the % sold at or above list will help explain those months where listings are increasing, sales are slowing and still the benchmark price goes up. Drives me nuts when I can't explain something.
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:26 am 22
Oh hey, offtopic, Pope and company, I noticed on my Blackberry the story pages (but not main page) have an automatic mobile theme now, something changed in the last week?
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:28 am 23
@808: So in your example, despite listing the property low, a sale above list actually raised the average price of the comparables.
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:38 am 24
@jesse:
Here's something else to consider:
I look at every single sale of West Side SFH's and the one thing that stands out the most is that the houses selling over list are the ones that have just hit the market.
The majority that sell within 10 days of being listed sell over ask, many way over.
Over 10 days on market, if they sell it's below ask in most cases.
Meanwhile the other 400+ west side houses are still languishing on the market.
Why is there no interest in these?
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:41 am 25
@CanuckDownUnder: Is there something you'll need the money for in 6 months or 1 year? What are the goals and purpose of this 1/3 allocation? If you need money, are the other 2/3 liquid enough to sell quickly?
This is not a yes/no question. If you can't figure it out, it may be time to consult a professional.
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:44 am 26
#27 Seymour Data Says: "So in your example, despite listing the property low, a sale above list actually raised the average price of the comparables."
Exactly. eBay regulars see this all the time in no-minimum auctions. Jesse is assuming constant market/marketing conditions across the entire time sequence, which I don't agree can be taken for granted in a turbulent market.
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:51 am 27
@fixie guy: But the result was the same. The sell price was higher than the comparables. Price went up.
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:01 am 28
@808: RE: "selling over-list has a lot to do with marketing…."
If/when this 'list well below comparables' strategy gains traction…watch out below. It's all sunshine and rainbows when only a small fraction of the market is trying it.
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:05 am 29
#31 Seymour Data Says: But the result was the same. The sell price was higher than the comparables. Price went up."
I must have missed it, where was it charted against comparables?
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:09 am 30
@Best place on meth: "Why is there no interest in these?"
Well I have no data on this but from my experience listings become "stale" after 2-3 weeks on the market. I expect if a property is going to sell overlist it will most likely happen within the first week or so. You can probably answer your own question but these properties are either not priced properly or have some other aspects that make them undesirable. Still, if these owners want them sold, the simply have to signal the market by dropping the prices.
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:10 am 31
Ontario police worried about Chinese immigrant luxury home realtor after he was apparently abducted by a dangerous criminal.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toro…
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:13 am 32
@fixie guy: Hardly scientific but 808 wrote "sold it the next week for higher than comparables." I'm not trying to defend the use of this ratio but it does correlate well and makes sense to me. Do I wish I had access to all the data you want in order to prove the theory – sure. But it's not going to happen. I'll just call it interesting for now.
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:22 am 33
@fixie guy: "Jesse is assuming constant market/marketing conditions across the entire time sequence"
I am pointing out that the overlist% is highly correlated to price changes, from January 2008 until now at least. The marketing techniques to elicit sales will obviously change depending upon prevailing conditions. The anecdotes I have observed suggest properties for sale will tend to be listed above market price in bear markets and that matches the data presented. It makes sense since a new listing will typically undercut its competition and existing listings are incapable of adjusting their prices with every new listing/sale.
Seymor's data are fascinating the same way I'm fascinated seeing experiments that verify the postulates of Einstein's general theory of relativity.
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:28 am 34
I love the headline "$10 Trillion destroyed so far in US bubble burst".
It should read "$10 Trillion fraudulently created during US credit bubble…now things back to normal"
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:42 am 35
@jesse:
"Well I have no data on this but from my experience listings become “stale” after 2-3 weeks on the market. I expect if a property is going to sell overlist it will most likely happen within the first week or so. You can probably answer your own question but these properties are either not priced properly or have some other aspects that make them undesirable. Still, if these owners want them sold, the simply have to signal the market by dropping the prices."
I know of somebody who recently sold second time around. They just relisted at the same price and all of a sudden there was a ton of interest. I wouldn't be surprised if most buyers focus on the newer listings. VOW sites facilitate this further.
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:48 am 36
@Anonymouse:
If all it takes to get people interested in a listing is to pull it, and then relist the same house at the same price then that does indeed confirm how stupid the buyers are in this city.
West side sellers, please take note.
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:07 am 37
They can take 50% and even 75% off the condos at the Olympic Village and I still wouldn't buy them. I don't thick other people either, now that London Drugs and co. have announced there will not be any stores in the vicinity.
The Olympic Village is in a slowly decaying area, destined to become a slum. It is already condemned as such to many. Why? Dedicating many condos for low income is only going to hurt this place. And a word about this "low income" thing, its only low income if people have jobs and are getting paid, and that pay is below the threshold to owning one of these condos. That means most Canadians are low income. But, these "low income" condos are not given to just "low income", they are given to ZERO income people (ZIPs). Giving condos to ZIPs means nobody but the State is going to pay for these condos and their maintenance (meaning us taxpayers). Considering that Vancouver City and BC Provincial Governments are broke, how on earth are they going to look after all these ZIP condos. They will not, and furthermore, that's exactly why also why companies like London Drugs see no point having a store there too. You reallying think ZIPs are going to be a great business for London Drugs! Is anyone in their sane mind really going to want to live in the Olympic Village, when the only prospect of these condos are for them to become part of a slum, one day to be referred to as …. The Vancouver Projects.
In fact, I think from now on we should not be referring to the Olympic Village as such, but instead as the Vancouver Projects.
These Vancouver Projects are already off onto a good start; can't be sold, unlivable living space (only a homeless person would find them spacious!), located smack bang in the middle Vancouver's gangster shooting gallery, can't buy a thing within 10 blocks (imagine having to walk along Broadway to a store or restaurant, and you walk into the middle of a fire-fight of automatic weapons, remember to pack your Uzi with you when you shop or go out to eat!), joke transit (if you live like a tourist then the Canada Line will take you downtown and the airport, but for the rest of you people who don't live like tourists and are interested in doing normal everyday things to survive, like grocery shopping, then enjoy the sardine packed Number 9 to Granville or Main St, with all your shopping bags).
Still think the Vancouver Projects is a good deal? The above are only the high lights, if you really want to know how bad its going to get, go to the projects in Detroit, Chicago and yeah…Toronto.
Nice going City of Vancouver and BC Provincial Government, you both have cemented a legacy that will be a testament to your gross stupidity and economic madness that will live on in the memory of those who pay taxes, for many decades.
I struggle to understand only one thing in all this, who are the bigger bunch of cuckoos, the brainless political leaders responsible for this Olympic Shamozzle, or those nincompoops who voted for them?
Ah yes, Vancouver. The best place in the world to live. Excuse me now folks while I go away and throw up.
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:26 am 38
The Obama administration has finally released its assessment regarding the winding down of Fannie and Freddie.
Check this piece on CR's blog:
"The Obama Administration released an outline this morning on winding down Fannie and Freddie, and for the future of government involvement in the housing finance market."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/options…
Notice: no similar discussion is taking place in thia country about the role of the CMHC. The huge market intervention of the Canadian government through this agency is being almost completely neglected in the public debate.
The CMHC is being taken for granted, as if its role was not debatable.
It should be abolished, and you should lobby your MPs about this.
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:29 am 39
@808: I agree that much of the over/under stat has to do with marketing, but you would think that marketing steps up when a bull market slows down, speculators are left with inventory that's not moving, and need to generate additional interest in order to sell.
There are other things to, such as special considerations that are not reflected in the list/sell price. When I sold my condo, it was under list, but the buyer agreed to pay the special assessment that was due, making the actual price over list. There could be other things too, like repairs and improvements that the buyer does not want to do himself, but stipulates as part of the conditions, and pays over asking.
Interesting metric for sure, but you have to look at it for what it is, and in context with other numbers and trends.
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:36 am 40
@Best place on meth:
Makes it easy for buyer agents to sell to their clients (they're commissioned sales people too). With the opaqueness of the MLS, an unscrupulous agent can "honestly" proclaim 'hey look! it's a new listing that just came on the market this morning!', even if they know full well it's just a relist. Psychologically, something new is more appealing than something that's been sitting on the shelf for a while.
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:38 am 41
@37 Jesse: You mean here?
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/price-chan…
Too charitable a definition of proven for my taste.
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:43 am 42
Hey, does anyone here know if there is a website which dates when new lower mainland condo developments are completing? .
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:46 am 43
paulb Says:
February 11th, 2011 at 12:43 pm
You mean like the one VHB used to publish many years back that showed the coming flood of condos? That one quietly went away when the results didn't match the predictions. Maybe he still maintains it?
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:49 am 44
"…when the results didn’t match the predictions."
You mean like the ghost towers around Coquitlam Centre?
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:52 am 45
Boombust Says:
February 11th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
VHB's list focused on downtown Vancouver condos, so no, no ghost towers from Coquitlam…
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:01 am 46
@Another Sorry Vancouverite:
Never mind who cares Van RE is not a cup of tea for the locals except for Chinese and hard working East Indians,those olympic will be snatch by mainland Chinese who is waiting their entry vista in China;to them buying those condo like buy lego toy.
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:02 am 47
@BoB: If the numbers for units being completed were accurate, then what "predictions" are you talking about? You can always talk to VHB to see where he got the info from, and do the work yourself to publish the numbers regularly.
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:02 am 48
@Another Sorry Vancouverite:
Almost the whole of Yaletown mixes low and high income people in the same neighbourhood. I guess you'd call that a slum, too.
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:07 am 49
I used to get the set of projects from the city of Vancouver development website. I then went to Twarog or the presale marketing website and gathered info on completion dates.
I documented a large number of condos coming to market in 2008-2011. I don't know that I made any explicit predictions, but if BoB is implying that I was 'wrong' that the presale market was in trouble, then I think that's odd.
Whatever is going on with SFH on the Westside or Richmond, I don't think any sane person could argue that the downtown condo presale or resale market is healthy like it was in 2004-2008. There is lots for sale.
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:07 am 50
If the realtors thought that OV was such a great deal, it would have been sold out on day one.
Tick Tock. Time is ticking. March 18th deadline is coming up.
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:08 am 51
Oh, and I didn't 'quietly' stop updating that page. I just stopped doing all of the blog, all of it at once.
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:15 am 52
@Another Sorry Vancouverite:
Blah blah blah.
Woodwards is in a worse location, also has social housing, etc. and it sold, didn't it? Who sold Woodwards?
There is only one reason why the OV hasn't sold (and only one reason why any property doesn't sell) and Bob Rennie knows full well what it is. If the City and receivers get the message it will sell. It's that simple.
Oh one thing I'd like to correct – the "gangster shooting gallery" seems to have relocated to the West Side.
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:16 am 53
@paulb: here's a map/list but no compoletion dates. http://www.gvrd.com/real_estate_new_housing/vanco…
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:18 am 54
@VHB: Vancouver Housing Blog: We missed your blog! Would you consider bringing it back as it will be a good companion to this one.
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:32 am 55
@patriotz:
"There is only one reason why the OV hasn’t sold"
Oh come on, the hospice at VGH has to be at least 20 blocks away.
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:32 am 56
@paulb:
There is a pretty good list of upcoming developments here but I don't know how complete it is.
http://www.vancouver-real-estate-direct.com/buzz/
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February 11th, 2011 at 5:55 am 57
Sorry if already posted
Vancouver condo-flipper hopefuls build award-winning blog
http://www.vancourier.com/Vancouver+condo+flipper…
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:11 am 58
@Anon:
Good on you. btw my tax bracket is lower with my San Diego job
and stupid me I didnt even realize I can now write off interest payments against my income. Anyway I am really blessed to be in a field that is still doing well and have my family's support for this move. We been to San Diego three times for holidays but not recently. Anyone familiar intimately with the breakdown of neighborhoods for good schools and that sort of things please give a shout out.
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:30 am 59
@paulb: There used to be a list of condo projects on the VancouverCondo Wiki pages. Whatever happened to those?
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:33 am 60
Anyone here remember that less than one year ago, the consensus was that the RE prices were rising "because of Olympics"? This has been the official reason for several years!
Now, out of nowhere, it's the "rich Chinese" driving up the prices. What will be the reason tomorrow? Magnetic pole shift sucking all the world's money into Vancouver RE?
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:43 am 61
@SDBound: A great site for anyone interested in SD real estate is http://www.sdlookup.com. I wish we had something similar in Vancouver.
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:47 am 62
Thanks very much for the links guys!
Heres a sneak peek of whats coming for 6pm.
New Listings 208
Price Changes 42
Sold Listings 70
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:49 am 63
@paulb:
Thanks Paul,
I see the yard work is back in full swing.
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:50 am 64
@blueskies: Stupid people get rich all the time. Few of them stay rich in the fullness of time.
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:53 am 65
Seems we aren’t the only ones who thought this was a staged media event..
Man that Garth has a way with words:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
“Too bad it was a ruse. The “Chinese realtors” that Key promoted to the media and on its web site were actually local Vancouver real estate agents and brokers. The two featured in Global’s report – Lu Wei and Chris Chan – work and live in Burnaby and downtown Vancouver, for Regent Park and Coldwell Banker. And the helicopter ride was not about showing Mainland Chinese investors other parts of the Lower Mainland to consume, but rather just to flog a single new 17-storey condo in White Rock which Key Marketing was hired to promote for presales”
Somebody must get in touch with Global and let them know they were bamboozled into a free infomercial.
It’s the only explanation I can think of. I’m sure Glabal wasn’t in on it.
They are professionals, who adhere to high journalistic standards, just like Angela and Mannie Buzunis.
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:03 am 66
#64 bubbly Says: "What will be the reason tomorrow?"
Forgot Americans and Albertans already? Or the recently suggested Filipinos?
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:06 am 67
@fixie guy: "Too charitable a definition of proven for my taste"
I have never stated "proven", only that the data align with what is viewed as common sense. Big difference.
Based on the amount of overlists in the current market, combined with decreasing months of inventory and a steady stream of sales, I'll take the over on detached benchmark prices increasing into the early spring.
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:16 am 68
@Devore:
We don't need the money for anything in the next year, Australian or Canadian real estate prices won't get to where we would buy for a few years at least.
It's just trying to predict where deposit rates will be in the short term. The RBA is dropping a lot of hints that rates won't be rising much more if at all.
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:17 am 69
@paulb: Thanks Paul. If I may request one thing, can you give a hint whether we should start getting ready for the 12K party, or should we wait until Monday to put the beer in the fridge?
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:29 am 70
oh oh…2 days of bear sightings…..what will we see on the MSM tomorrow?
Pimped out China daddies…cruising around downtown yelling out the window of an SUV limo:
"I buy that one too!" at every for sale sign they see.
Followed by a quick clip of Cameron saying "We just sold the whole city to China…isn't that great? But you still have one month until the papers are signed, so get in now…everyone who owns will retire rich, and, as for the rest…..you will die."
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:30 am 71
@bubbly:
For the record, it wasn't the bulls pushing this theory.
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:32 am 72
WTF?
“Blog by The Key
Air Realtor
The first ever helicopter tour specifically for Chinese realtors took off into the sunny skies above Vancouver airport yesterday afternoon.”
How on earth did they reach that conclusion? No Chinese realtors, ever or anywhere, have been given a site tour by helicopter before this? Amazing. The author forgets to expand on why anyone should care. It’s 100% a clumsy backtrack puff piece.
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:44 am 73
Wealthy Chinese put house hunting on Vancouver vacation itinerary
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Wealthy+Chin… http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Wealthy+Chin…
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:51 am 74
@Eric Jackson:
That article was from last June.
Since then sales have been weak so they failed in their attempt to panic people into buying.
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:11 am 75
@VHB:
!!!!12005!!!!!
OK beer run time, back before 6pm with the complete numbers and some cold ones for the party.
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:15 am 76
Well, this is what is happening on vancouver island (excluding Victoria):
Condos: 22 MOI
Townhouses: 34 MOI
SFH: 10 MOI
http://tinyurl.com/69dk9a5
What a bloodbath!
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:21 am 77
Well bear yes only 35 mainlander in White Rock 2003 how many from HK? Different number for sure since many friend live in White Rock not mainlander. Nice cherry pick bear.
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:37 am 78
@VHB:
What kind of man doesn't keep beer in the fridge? Your man status is revoked.
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:41 am 79
@Amomynouse: I drank it all at the 11,800 party last night. Ok, it wasn't really a party. It was just me drinking alone. Anyhoo, yes 12k!!!
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:45 am 80
Yes!
Another inventory party!
I always know that prices will go up once the bears start their inventory parties!
At least that has been the case for the past two plus years!
Remember the 20k inventory party in 2008 and last years 15k inventory party?! Those were quite the celebrations before the continued run up in prices!
Yup, time to celebrate a reverse schadenfrude!
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:46 am 81
@Best place on meth:
Regarding 400+ houses not selling on Van Westside…
easy explanation…. street address contains one or more "4"'s.
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:48 am 82
@Party Machine: "Remember the 20k inventory party in 2008"
Yeah, and I remember the 15% price drop that followed. Your point?
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:51 am 83
@fixie guy: Filipinos? Wow! The magnetic pole shift theory is starting to look more plausible.
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:55 am 84
@Amomynouse: "For the record, it wasn’t the bulls pushing this theory." Of course it was the bulls. Who else? Almost every realtor and RE pusher in this city was babbling about Olympics.
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February 11th, 2011 at 9:07 am 85
@bubbly:
Biggest strawman eva!
Let's see the proof.
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February 11th, 2011 at 9:08 am 86
@Irrational Exuberance: I guess the 8's in the price is no match for the 4's on the door.
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February 11th, 2011 at 9:09 am 87
@Eric Jackson: Apparently, the wealthy Chinese are desperate to buy – in Florida : http://tinyurl.com/4txmuq9
or is it Korea? http://tinyurl.com/46cfl5p
sorry, I mean London: http://tinyurl.com/4t3cchb
actually, they are buying up the whole European continent: http://tinyurl.com/68v4vfp
I could go on.
Vancouver is so special… NOT!
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February 11th, 2011 at 9:10 am 88
@Amomynouse: You either live in a cave or you are just a troll.
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February 11th, 2011 at 9:19 am 89
@bubbly:
Let's see some quotes from reputable experts. FYI bears live in caves.
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February 11th, 2011 at 9:22 am 90
@bubbly: Can't you read? I wrote that it was realtors and RE pushers (marketing people, "journalists") who came with the Olympic theory. I never said that any of them were reputable experts.
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February 11th, 2011 at 9:34 am 91
@bubbly:
Post up some quotes. Until then all I see is straw.
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February 11th, 2011 at 9:44 am 92
New Listings 281
Price Changes 86
Sold Listings 121
12004
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February 11th, 2011 at 9:48 am 93
12004 – evil omen
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February 11th, 2011 at 10:11 am 94
@Amomynouse:
I will post quotes without links to bypass moderation. You can put the quotes in google to find their sources:
Canadian Housing by Frank O’Brien, Distributed by Inman News, August 2003: "“The real estate community is preparing for what could prove to be the biggest real estate boom in British Columbia history as the province prepares to welcome the world.” [for the 2010 Olympics]
Bousse Ershadi (realtor): "IT'S A GREAT TIME TO BE IN THE MARKET! As we are all aware, the Vancouver 2010 Olympic games are driving the city’s (as well as the province’s) immediate economy on all fronts, not just real estate. If you’re a savvy investor who’s studied the trends of previous host cities after the Olympic Games, you will be aware the market stays hot long after the Olympics are over."
The Province Nov 29 2009: "“Mayur Arora, who told The Province he hoped to land a top-floor unit, and his realtor K.D. Dhaliwal, said location and scarcity make the site an attractive investment. “I’m here because they are selling Yaletown at today’s prices, but the speculation is [that] prices will go up after the Olympics,” Arora said"
Mike Shafie (realtor): "Its selection as the host for the 2010 Winter Olympics has only enhanced Vancouver as a top destination for investment, retirement, immigration and holiday homes."
Now fuck off…
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February 11th, 2011 at 10:16 am 95
@Eric Jackson: @Eric Jackson: Since my post with 4 links is in moderation I will post the links one by one.
1) Wealthy Chinese are desperate to buy – in Florida : http://tinyurl.com/4txmuq9
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February 11th, 2011 at 10:17 am 96
2) Wealthy Chinese are buying in Korea: http://tinyurl.com/46cfl5p
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February 11th, 2011 at 10:17 am 97
3) Wealthy Chinese are buying in London: http://tinyurl.com/4t3cchb
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February 11th, 2011 at 10:18 am 98
@bubbly: W00t!1!!1
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February 11th, 2011 at 10:19 am 99
4) Wealthy Chinese are buying "old world castles and chateaus with vineyards in France, and the sunny southern Spain costas": http://tinyurl.com/68v4vfp
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February 11th, 2011 at 10:21 am 100
This one is again in moderation:
1) Wealthy Chinese are desperate to buy – in Florida : http://tinyurl.com/4txmuq9
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February 11th, 2011 at 11:59 am 101
@bubbly:
Seems to be a bit of a disconnect here. Last night on the news we had a realtor telling us that Chinese find Vancouver real estate "cheap." Now we have an American realtor saying that Chinese find US real estate "cheap." (which I might actually agree with, given Vancouver prices). But last I checked there's a huge difference in price between real estate in Vancouver and real estate in the US. So….which is it? Or maybe it's all cheap! (Oh, except all those recreational properties in the Okanagan, which aren't selling. I guess to the Chinese, those aren't cheap and buyer-worthy.)
The US article was dated October 2010. I guess the Chinese aren't rushing to buy in Florida, because from what I've heard, things are still tanking there. It must be a realtor dream common around the world-Chinese investors come to save the day!
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:02 pm 102
Gee, do you think that salespeople worldwide employ the same tactics? THINGS, INCLUDING REAL ESTATE, SELL BETTER WHEN PEOPLE PERCEIVE SCARCITY AND COMPETITION.
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:10 pm 103
Here's the latest video from those honest people at Remax.
The main points are that a sellers market is right around the corner and you will be competing against developers and foreigners, the latter group is snapping up houses 2 at a time for cash.
Just for good measure they show how Vancouver real estate has gone up 7.8% a year for the last 10 years.
No doubt the implications are that it will continue to do so.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x1RYFWWl84
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:10 pm 104
Actually, considering the Chinese situation, I'm starting to wonder if the Chinese influence in everything isn't a bit overdone. I have connections in the mining industry in BC, and interestingly, I hear the same sort of stories from them as I do from the real estate pumpers. When asking who is going to fund their mines, who are they going to target selling their ore to, the answer is always the same: the Chinese. I do agree that the Chinese have a lot of cash, and have made terrific advances in their economy (I'm no expert, mind you), but it seems to me that EVERYONE has this idea that the Chinese have enough money to basically run the world. And it somehow reminds me of the time when everyone also thought the Japanese were going to the run the world too, years ago. And that didn't exactly pan out, did it?
Now I could be wrong, but I have my doubts that the Chinese are going to rush in and buy everything in sight, in the whole damn world.
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:15 pm 105
And remember kids, the only place "success" comes before "work" is in the dictionary.
Realtors are clever people.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xXqy_ngDlM
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:32 pm 106
Wealthy Chinese buying in Japan: http://tinyurl.com/6guvq47
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:33 pm 107
Wealthy Chinese buying in Singapore: http://tinyurl.com/4p3byue
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:33 pm 108
Wealthy Chinese buying in Dubai: http://tinyurl.com/4eequyv
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:33 pm 109
Wealthy Chinese buying in Thailand: http://tinyurl.com/4jvkm6z
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:35 pm 110
Wealthy Chinese buying in Australia: http://tinyurl.com/ndf5sm
But Vancouver is totally unique. RE here will go up forever. Maybe it really is because Vancouver has restaurants and stores, unlike any other city in the world.
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:39 pm 111
@bubbly:
This is impossible, the wealthy Chinese are buying in all those places?
I was told that they all want to come to Vancouver and buy OUR real estate.
I can't believe I fell for that old trick.
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:46 pm 112
San Diego is a great city and there are some very good deals, not cheap by american stds but sure affordable compaired to our wet city where is it rains 300 days per year.
I would leave this city tomorrow without any regret if I could go and settle in SD or any place in California for that matter. The problem is you need a green card to live there more than 6 months.
How do you get one?
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:46 pm 113
Here's NBC's Craig Ferguson once again with his latest market update.
He barely waited 14 seconds before he started talking about rich mainland Chinese with their pockets stuffed with cash.
He had virtually nothing to say about the condo or rental market before finishing up by mentioning the rich Chinese again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esCzWDyepOM
Very bullish and looking forward to a strong spring!
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February 11th, 2011 at 12:47 pm 114
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/22/business/global…
Wealthy Chinese AND soccer championship? Quick, buy your place in Ukraine before you are priced out forever!
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:15 pm 115
Chinese realtors with 8s tatooed on their foreheads are parachuting out of helicopters in groups of 8 all over the city and they are buying every house they land on and the eight houses on either side of it just for good luck(for triple the asking price all cash) for their rich chinese clients who no longer even care to make a decision on the house just as long as it is not near a hospice or other ghost generating establishment.
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February 11th, 2011 at 2:16 pm 116
The current Olympic Village owners apparently are pissed about the 30% plus price drop. Apparently a flyer is circulating to band together to seek damages. I guess nobody told them the developer went bankrupt.
What is the big deal anyway? If they bought a place for a million$ a year or two ago they are only going to pay an extra $1800 per month or so over the person buying the same place today. What is $1800 per month or $21,600 per year for 25 years? Pocket change for the average wealthy Vancouver real estate flipper.
I wonder how Larry Campbell feels with his 2 places? Depending on the values of the places he bought, he may as well have taken a 50% pay cut on that fat cat senator salary for the next 25 years. If he bought higher end places he could be working for free until he retires. Nice investment.
I wonder if the suckers who buy at the new prices today will be as pissed in a couple of years when the same place is selling at 50% off todays price?
Soon the Rich Chinese stories on Global will be trumped with stories of shocked real estate owners taking life changing hair cuts on their "assets".
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:30 pm 117
@Renting:
Campbell bought in during the presale in 2007 and thinks it's a great place to live, especially now that he's commuting to Ottawa for his job as a senator.
"I walk out my door. I go down to the Canada Line. I'm at the airport," he said.
He also likes how environmentally friendly the building is. The condos were built LEED Gold, which is the highest environmental standard.
"The heat in here is from sewage going through the ceiling. There's monitors that can tell me how much electricity I'm using," he said.
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/…
I'm laughing at you Larry, you paid $1000 per square foot to have sewage running through your ceiling.
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:33 pm 118
@Renting: If you read the "vicious circle" article, in the comments, someone named "H Halifax" (appears to be a lawyer) is making this case for a possible lawsuit against the COV:
"They could do that, but the 30% who bought in earlier would likely sue that their equity was diminished due to mismanagement and failures under BC's Real Estate Development Marketing Act.
The Act (REDMA) gives owners the right to retroactively challenge a sale if there were "material facts" about the development not disclosed at the time of purchase, including outstanding financial obligations of the developer. Since there was no sunshine on those "secret" contracts, and the hedge fund involvement etc., there is a very real case that the pre-sales were bogus, based on unsound developer fitness, all fudged in a hurry because of the pre-Olympic frenzy.
That could leave the current developer (the City) on the hook for that lost equity, or face contract rescission.
If there is evidence of malfeasance in the development contracts that was NOT disclosed to these buyers, but is disclosed to fire sale buyers, then the original buyers can rightly argue that they were deceived through lack of material disclosure. That is a very, very serious problem for the City and why they are bending over backwards to preserve the equity of those 30%.
All this public exposure is making their case."
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February 11th, 2011 at 3:52 pm 119
Days elapsed so far 9
Days remaining 11
5 Day Moving Average: Sales 139
5 Day Moving Average: Listings 280
SALES
Sales so far 1258
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1525
Projected month end total 2783 +/- 531
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 2529
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 3078
Projected month end total 5607 +/- 362
Sell-list so far 49.7%
Projected month-end sell-list 49.6%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of February 11, 2011 12004
MoI at this sales pace 4.31
Sales are coming in a bit below average for February. But, it's hard to say where we will be at the end of the month. We have 200+ sales one day, <100 the next. Bouncing around.
On the other hand, listings are continuing at an absolutely blistering pace. We will obliterate the previous Feb record. Since 2002, we have only been above 5K new listings once–in 2008. And in that year, we saw 5260. We are on pace for 5600 this year.
I think there are still herds of panicky buyers who believe RE goes up forever, gotta buy before the foreigners buy everything, etc. etc. However, those herds will slowly but surely be swamped by the unrelenting waves of inventory.
Let's put it this way–if there are below average sales now before March 18th, what the hell are sales going to look like in April? Yeah, that's right. You know. Even the bulls know if they were honest with themselves.
Bon weekend a tous.
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:00 pm 120
Here are the inventory gains in February over the past few years.
2006: +1168
2007: +368
2008: +1465
2009: +616
2010: +1216
So far in Feb 2011, we have gained +902. In 9 days out of 20 working days.
This is important. Prices don't drop until we accumulate lots of inventory. We're not there yet. But we don't get to 18 or 20K of inventory unless we first pass 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17K of inventory. So, my friends, tonight we celebrate 12K of inventory. One small stop on the path to where things will go.
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:20 pm 121
VHB- thanks for your work on the numbers. Wonder why the MOi has dropped from last 6 to 4 and change. It would suggest higher sales, despite the rising inventory. I don't think we get price changes until the MOi goes well over 6 again. Remember the chart from Mohican?
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:30 pm 122
@frank: All correct. Yes, increasing sales have lowered the MoI. Not unexpected. We won't be back above 6 until April at the earliest. I don't expect price drops until then. In fact, we may actually revisit the April 2010 price highs before retreating. But who knows for sure.
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February 11th, 2011 at 4:57 pm 123
@REIC is watching us:
The problem is their "equity" was never there in the first place. They paid more than the places were ever worth. Remember they bought a contract to purchase the real estate at a certain date at a certain price. When that time came the places were not worth what the contract price was. Nothing was diminished. The places were never worth $1000 per ft. They paid too much plain and simple. The City can't wave a magic wand to make the places worth more. God knows they tried.
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:49 pm 124
@REIC is watching us: On what grounds would they be able to sue? Shady financial dealings or minor (so far) building defects have not caused the 30% price drop. Even a 30% price drop is still above comparable market value (where I suppose the worth of LEED Gold is arguable). So in essence they have bet their units would be worth more at the time they have to complete their purchase than they have agreed to pay for them at pre-sale time. They gambled poorly.
The market is what the market is. Neither the developer nor the city have made any guarantees regarding future market value. They set the price, and buyers agreed the price was acceptable.
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February 11th, 2011 at 6:58 pm 125
@REIC is watching us: BTW I wasn't endorsing H Halifax's argument, just found it interesting.
This may result in some legal costs for the COV though.
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February 11th, 2011 at 7:44 pm 126
@REIC is watching us:
If there were any viable grounds for challenging the presales at the OV, you would have seen something happen last year, when those guys were walking around wearing sandwich boards.
Note also that the seller of the presales was Millennium, which is now in bankruptcy, which has no assets to pay a judgment even if a suit were to succeed. And to top it off such judgment would likely be junior to the debt to the City.
Not one legal action was launched AFAIK and I'd bet that's because no lawyer was willing to take on the case without cash up front from the owners.
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February 11th, 2011 at 8:05 pm 127
BCs savings rate has been negative for over 10 years meaning people are relying on home equity to pay bills. This alone seems to suggest a credit crisis and housing correction.
http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2011/02/11…
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February 12th, 2011 at 1:18 am 128
The OV is the first real public real estate slaughter of this bubble. Maybe this will kick things off as the media will give it lots of coverage. Should be plenty of tears from current home condo on the 6 PM news.
This is what it looked like in Florida when the housing crash was taking its first leg down almost 4 years ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10WoQZKZkNs&fe…
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February 12th, 2011 at 1:22 am 129
Anyone read the Vancouver Sun digital edition today ? Claims real estate is "goin crazy". Pretty sad when they hand pick one house on Main and 23rd that sold for $25K over list and the "bidding wars are breaking out" bullshit is coming out of the woodwork.
Looks like a concentrated effort by the RE bizz and media to shut down the 25% correction theories and any Shiller talk. Pathetic.
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February 12th, 2011 at 2:02 am 130
@Renting:
Wow, I love it when idiots get hit right in the face with reality. My favourite was the one who complained, "they promised us they wouldn't go for under market value". Er honey, market value IS what something sells for on the open market.
Stay tuned for "Canada's Got Whiners", coming next year.
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February 12th, 2011 at 2:06 am 131
"The current Olympic Village owners apparently are pissed about the 30% plus price drop. Apparently a flyer is circulating to band together to seek damages. I guess nobody told them the developer went bankrupt. "
They shouldn’t be pissed off; there will be an aerial tour soon.
The current owners, should buy a few more units, and cost average down.
Like Bill Slut and Rennie have said, this is the best place on earth, and the best piece of real estate in North America.
I'm sure the helicopter, and jet setting crowd, will eventually see the OV, and once they are done buying up White Rock; the bidding war for the OV will start.
Talk about the emperor not wearing clothes, and nobody dares to say so.
Had this fiasco been about any other government involved project, the taxpayers would be at city hall with pitch forks and torches, but this is about a real estate venture going bust, and nobody wants to advertise that prices can drop, yes even in Vancouver, even if Rennie, Cameron, and Ozzie say differently.
This is my tax dollar subsiding real estate pimps, and the opposition doesn’t have the balls to ask the pimps where have all those foreign tycoons gone?
I thought we paid a lot of money to leave our calling card to the world.
Could someone please ask for an actual accounting of all those businesses that have now set up shop here?
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February 12th, 2011 at 2:19 am 132
Any worried bears out there should check out Fish's latest numbers.
http://fishyre.blogspot.com/2011/02/sorry-folks.h…
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February 12th, 2011 at 2:35 am 133
@Best place on meth:
…..
I’m laughing at you Larry, you paid $1000 per square foot to have sewage running through your ceiling. .
……..
Not really a suprise since the entire development is a turd.
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February 12th, 2011 at 2:36 am 134
@frank:
I was never worried.
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February 12th, 2011 at 2:43 am 135
@Renting: In that video, the homoaners are freaking out because prices went from $300K to $145K. Check out this recent sale there, and compare the sell price to the Zestimate (nice graph too):
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4064-Cherrybroo…
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February 12th, 2011 at 2:51 am 136
@frank:
I Know the Bulls don't visit Fish often here is the vital info they need:
"However once you leave Vancouver you see a different picture. The periphery is weak.
In Victoria we are sitting at 10.4 MOI
In Whistler at the end of Jan, they were still well over 16 MOI. Anyone looking in Whistler should demand a good price reduction.
The Central OK ended Jan with over 4000 listings and 200 sales. 20 MOI! I would expect sales to pick up as we head into spring. The question is, how much and do we enter the fall with bloated inventory which would suggest some good price reductions coming in 2012 or sooner.
In the North OK we are looking at 80 sales and 2000 on the books, which gives us a MOI of 25!"
Tick Tock, Tick Tock
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February 12th, 2011 at 4:39 am 137
coastal #129
Re Vancouver Sun
No surprise at all that the VS failed to mention anything at all about Rbert Shillers recent suggestion that Canada's housing market is way overpriced, and that Calgary and Vancouver are the biggest possible bubbles in the country.
We're talking Shiller here, the biggest name in credible forecasting.
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February 12th, 2011 at 4:39 am 138
@VHB: Given the speedy inventory build-up and credit tightening next month, the best case scenario (for the bulls) is a repeat of last year – little if any price gain. And for that person that bought in late 2007, that would be four years of zero price appreciation while shelling out double the living costs compared to a renter of an equivalent unit. Once this sinks into the mind of joe average, the hype will end.
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February 12th, 2011 at 4:53 am 139
TED BUTLER SPECIAL
http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_come…
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February 12th, 2011 at 5:35 am 140
"Realtor Selina Jansen, who also had a client bidding on the house, says artificially low list prices are fuelling the bidding “frenzy.”
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Bidding+wars…
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February 12th, 2011 at 5:47 am 141
"Realtor Selina Jansen, who also had a client bidding on the house, says artificially low list prices are fuelling the bidding “frenzy.”
“Some people are notorious for it, and I think other people are now copying them because they’re having so much success with it,” she said."
Well look at that, whocoodanoen? She's already 10 notches up on the 'worth bookmarking' list for simple human honesty from a Vancouver realtor.
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February 12th, 2011 at 6:27 am 142
@VHB:
Hey VHB,
I myself am always reminded of what an idiot the average person is when it comes to their finances (especially GVRD housing). The media and realtor associations have largely ignored the upcoming rule changes (I remember one comment as being it would only change your monthly payment by 100/month so it's not a big deal).
Where I think the next big trend will be is interest rate increases. We all know they're coming so why not try to capitalize on it and instill some panic. This way, every time a rate increase happens they will be telling buyers, "See we told you rates are going up, better get your mortgage now before you miss out and have to pay more to the bank in interest". This would combat those (like us here) who would tell them to relax, sit back and watch interest rates sink the market. So instead of rate increases making people think twice about how they will afford their home when it is time to renew and tanking sales, they can use it to spur more sales.
Here's a poster that I corrected on greaterfool:
Clearly this is flawed logic, but I guarantee it's a great sales tactic by realtors and mortgage brokers telling people why prices are expensive now and may correct but you'll still pay more since you missed out on once in a lifetime interest rates.
Here is my correction (the proper math)
I think sales in this market are all about getting in before rates rise, and may (unfortunately) continue past March.
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February 12th, 2011 at 6:37 am 143
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Bidding+wars…
There ya go. What will happen when everyone is doing this? I don't think this strategy will work for very long.
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February 12th, 2011 at 6:47 am 144
@Renting: Those people in Florida were upset that their "$300k" townhomes were selling for $145k. One of those $145k "bargains" from 2007 is back on the market for $112k.
http://www.greaterftmyers.com/idx/residential/201…
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:02 am 145
@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps:
THIS IS THE BEST AND FUNNIEST POST I'VE READ HERE IN A LONG TIME
PLEASE GIVE PERMISSION TO OTHERS TO RE-POST ON OTHER MEDIA
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:07 am 146
@crabman:
Man is that ever cheap.
$112K plus the Florida weather included at no extra charge.
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:12 am 147
"There ya go. What will happen when everyone is doing this? I don’t think this strategy will work for very long."
This is actually good for the bears in the long run. The fools
will eventually get their now overdue comeuppance, and they will be so mired and so deep into debt, they won’t be in the market place for a long time on the demand side of the equation.
If anything they may be an accelerated source of demand for credit counseling services, divorce lawyers, insurance fraud investigators, ( as there will certainly be a lot more property fires) and as the debt load reaches the crescendo, I can see an uptick in personal injury claims against ICBC, even in minor fender benders.
I might offer my investigative services to ICBC on a commission basis: I think I will get rich.
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:53 am 148
Three thoughts:
1) Will every condo owner going under water in the next 24 months file for "damage" ?!? As often said on this blog, the typical speculator brags on the way up, and considers himself a victim on the way down. They just do not understand the concept of "risk."
2) I agree that people have a very poor understanding of finance. I have seen many top educated people buying houses based on crazy calculations, or no calculations at all, and this includes engineers and mathematicians. They were only driven by emotions.
3) My view of hot Asian money is that, like any other investor, most Chinese investors buy when the ROI is high, and sell when it is low. Conclusion: right now there should be more Chinese investors trying to sell than trying to buy. But we do not see them on TV… The fact that they have cash is irrelevant.
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:59 am 149
@ Coastal,
I went by that house on East 5th. A gorgeous massive character house in a perfect location. I even mentioned it to my realtor to see what was up thinking I would offer 600 000 max for it.
She said it was a total game. In this market, that house should have been listed at minimum 750 000, so the fact that they got an extra 50 000 shows that the game payed off.
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:59 am 150
wow, still sitting in the zoo doing all the calculation eh?
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February 12th, 2011 at 8:01 am 151
@ coastal,
I do wish they would report who actually buys these houses. They do a report on a couple that can't get in…..why don't they show who actually pays it out. Then we could see for ourselves if it's the IWC (insanely wealthy chinese) or some poor local yocal who's on the hook for the rest of his life and well into the life of his kids.
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February 12th, 2011 at 8:04 am 152
Quick, let the chinese know…good deals somewhere else:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/feb/11/house…
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February 12th, 2011 at 9:12 am 153
@patient renter:
Agreed, you never know if the deal even completes or the happy overbidder/buyer actually qualified. You also never see articles saying places that go below assesment which probably happens more often than these rigged bidding wars. Wouldn't want the masses to read that would they. More media hyping of a small segment of buyers out there,like the Chinese helicopter patrol.
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February 12th, 2011 at 9:22 am 154
The thing that strikes me the most lately is the similarity in sentiment right before the tech crash. Same time of year, they were still trying to milk the last of the fools that "valuations didn't matter". As well there were a few knowledgable business types coming out stating "this can't go on any longer,there has to be a correction" and they were scoffed at.
Looking at the media barrage the last week trying to deflect any notion of a correction only confirms my belief the edge of cliff is about one step away.
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February 12th, 2011 at 9:45 am 155
@patient renter: That's something that hasn't been dealt with too much: how much the market depends on first-time buyers.
Here's an interesting question: why did the percentage of sales to first-time-buyers decrease during the severe bear market of 2008? That is, I can understand sales dropping for everyone but why would the ratio of FTBs change, and who is buying in greater proportions instead?
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February 12th, 2011 at 9:49 am 156
@patient renter:
You answered the question yourself in the very next sentence.
BTW even if the realtor doesn't want to divulge the information, you can get everything (including name & status of purchaser, selling price, and financing) from BC Online for 20 bucks or so. Have to wait until closing of course.
BTW thank you to the Pope for fixing the preview.
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February 12th, 2011 at 10:08 am 157
Any way to include the Village on False Creek in the CULT index?
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February 12th, 2011 at 10:36 am 158
@patient renter: That’s something that hasn’t been dealt with too much: how much the market depends on first-time buyers.
This topic has been discussed extensively on this blog several times by our "experts." Search the archive.
My opinion: When the market is falling, people in the market who made a good gain in the previous years might upgrade/downgrade, but FTB have too much to lose to get in.
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February 12th, 2011 at 10:39 am 159
I start to enjoy the pumping! All those desperate realtors trying to convince us with wide smiles and anxious looks. Look at that one:
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/935373–h…
A proof that defies all statistics: she is holding a "sold" sign!
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February 12th, 2011 at 10:56 am 160
My rented condo is supposedly worth $460k (based on a current listing in the building.) And yet…SO and I can't believe that this piece of crap is worth any more than $150k. It's 6 years old, and every morning and night we have the privilege of listening to what we've dubbed "Niagara Falls"-water gushing down the pipes in the wall whenever the people upstairs flush the toilet/have a shower/wash their hands. We moved our bed so the water gushing isn't above our heads (heaven forbid a pipe bursts) and SO has taken to yelling "Quit peeing!" whenever the water starts to gush. As a bonus, we're beside a corridor which leads outside, we can hear people clomping down the stairs ALL THE WAY from the 4th floor! Starts at about 6am every morning as people rush out to get to work.
Dear God, I'm so glad I didn't buy this place, because I would be planting pipe bombs in the developer's mailbox right about now. This market has got to correct, if only because owners are pissed enough to realize they've bought into a garbage wood-frame building.
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February 12th, 2011 at 11:09 am 161
@VHB: Given the speedy inventory build-up and credit tightening next month, the best case scenario (for the bulls) is a repeat of last year – little if any price gain. And for that person that bought in late 2007, that would be four years of zero price appreciation while shelling out double the living costs compared to a renter of an equivalent unit. Once this sinks into the mind of joe average, the hype will end.
*************
Are you that delusional bears? Cannot you not read a REBGV price chart? Do you not constantly whine about every increasing prices that some of you are finally beginning to move?
You really must be delusional if you truly think that anyone that bought late 2007 has not seen any price appreciation. This post seals the deal – you are idiots!
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February 12th, 2011 at 11:09 am 162
The "survival rate" of Chinese investors in France is 10%, i.e. 90% go under.
http://french.peopledaily.com.cn/Economie/7020112…
So far, only 5 "chateaux" in the Bordeaux region have been bought by Chinese investors in several years. (Notice that the headline says "Chinese Investors are Attracted to Bordeaux Vineyards").
http://www.bordeaux-region.com/fr/+Les-investisse…
Are Rich Asians the chimera of modern times?
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February 12th, 2011 at 11:15 am 163
Spot The Speculators #27 –
Innocent RE Gamblers: Mid-Forties Couple; Income $163K; Two Properties $650K; Debt Load $603K; Net-Worth $66K
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Q4
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February 12th, 2011 at 1:13 pm 164
john Says:
February 12th, 2011 at 10:14 am
I have two observations about the whole Chinese people ensuring house prices in Vancouver stay high FOREVER:
1. Why haven’t they bought in the Olympic Village? Nice homes, new build, nice area… perhaps price IS important to them after all, meaning they will buy in San Diego, San Fran, Miami, etc instead.
2. I know a few Chinese people in their 20s whose parents moved here – they all dream of Australia as the place to be. I know a few more who moved to Hong Kong. Sorry to disappoint the cheerleaders but Vancouver is not the only pleasant place in the world to buy a house.
********
Are you really this stupid bears?
Anyone stop to notice that the Chinese have only being buying HOUSES, not condos, or townhouses.
The rich Chinese will not buy the Olympic village units because the Chinese need space for their own families and extended families. The Village does not afford them any opportunities – sorry bears.
The Village may go down but the Chinese are still buying all the houses – the houses that bears want.
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February 12th, 2011 at 1:38 pm 165
I had a look at the bullsite RET, and they seem to be living in a different universe. And the media is in a cloud of bovine farts. I hear anecdotes about rich Asians, desperate First Time Buyers squeezing in before rules changes, and bidding wars.
But the STATS. THE STATS. They don't show this. Record listings but mediocre-to-low sales. I mean, I fully expect a bull stampede by March, but everyday I look for it and don't see it.
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February 12th, 2011 at 2:32 pm 166
@pricedoutfornow: looks like renting isn't all sunshine and lollipops hey?
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February 12th, 2011 at 3:02 pm 167
@Vanrod: I don't say this too often but you, sir/madam, are a freaking moron. Do you think that the flushing and hallway stomping would somehow magically disappear had pricedout and the so "purchased" the unit rather than renting?
Now pay attention: there is absolutely no difference in terms of the lived experience, whether you are paying a mortgage or paying rent. There is a huge financial difference in that by having had the intelligence to rent this shithole from a landlord (instead of renting it from the bank) pricedout and the so can easily move to something quieter at a moment's notice. As a homeowner, it would have been a financial albatross around their necks.
I admit it, I've finally reached the breaking point and now want the market to collapse for purely selfish reasons, so that morons like vanrod finally understand that everyone is a genius during a bull market.
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February 12th, 2011 at 3:14 pm 168
wow, somebody is sure angry. must be having pms!
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February 12th, 2011 at 3:19 pm 169
@Vanrod: LOL yeah I would hate to be the landlord of pofn's place, having tenants either chronically moving out due to the unacceptable plumbing noise, or constantly complaining about it. That would suck.
Worse, imagine being your own landlord and feeling the pangs of buyer's remorse every time your upstairs neighbour takes a leak. That would suck x2.
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February 12th, 2011 at 3:33 pm 170
Wealthy Chinese buying on the Moon:
http://www.weirdasianews.com/2007/03/17/china-res…
Nuff said!
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February 12th, 2011 at 3:45 pm 171
Ok sorry to post this here, but I can't seem to log in. Can anyone here suggest a good property mangement company that I could reccommend to a young couple looking to rent a condo in Kits?
Thanks for any help you can give!
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February 12th, 2011 at 3:54 pm 172
@Check the Charts:
Two of the OV buildings start at about 2000 ft per unit. Many are over 3000 ft per unit. Both buildings sit vacant unsold. Plenty of room for extended families of any race. Why the Chinese arn't buying? Simple, they aren't buying anything in Vancouver to any extent – SFH or otherwise. The rich Chinese buyer is a real turd MYTH. Too bad you got sucked in.
Well we currently have them as rentals at 75% below the cost of buying. But yes we may buy them once prices drop 75%. We will wait until bankruptcy forces you to sell them to us at over 75% off. No hard feeling I hope.
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February 12th, 2011 at 4:04 pm 173
@Vanrod:
Nope, but it sure beats owning the shit hole, which someone does. Vanrod are you really that fucking dumb?
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:16 pm 174
@blueskies:
Right on man;Stupid Vancouver bears wait and wait and wait while their money can't even buy a chicken shack in 2011.Rich men like us bought houses yrs ago and now are being swallowed up by rich Chinese at price we dictate. Their doom predictions since 99 always fail them miserably.Beijing model is the best model Canada should adopt such succefull policy and ask China for economic and millitary assitance.
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:19 pm 175
@Renting:
U go to the Parks in any area to witness yourself;bears are hiding the fact to keep drum going.Should cousul a doctor.
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:24 pm 176
@Anonymous:
Bears are always angry coz the market fails them and now they got priced out forever while stuck with ever increasing rent.Plight retirement are ahead of them.Who and what they are blaming on?
They should only blame on their stupidity and wasteful honky like style;indead of saving money for a sizable down payment,they would rather squander their meager salary on drug,boost and women.
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:31 pm 177
@painted turtle:
Not much coz they got all priced out yrs ago,the market is only supported by Chinese from local and mainly by mainland Chinese.
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:33 pm 178
@jesse:
Chinese
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:40 pm 179
@coastal:
(Looking at the media barrage the last week trying to deflect any notion of a correction only confirms my belief the edge of cliff is about one step away.)
Same old statement from a frustrating bear;it is time totake your pycho med man now . the market fails u in the yrs ahead,u could be the one snapped and jump off from the edge of a cliff,and it's about one inch away;Van RE never fails its follower but Van bears destined to fail their audience time and time again for the next hundred yrs.
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February 12th, 2011 at 7:46 pm 180
Every week I love reading your comments, you guys give me hope that not everyone in BC is brain dead. I dont have anything insightful or profound to add this week that you havent all covered, but I found something really funny. This is a parody I found on you tube of adolf hitler lamenting his real estate purchase, I guarantee youll laugh your butt off.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM
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February 12th, 2011 at 10:48 pm 181
MAN do I ever love this blog! I don't know why but Vancouver really is ground zero for gullible fools, and it's pretty clear things are getting desperate. I mean some on, how can hard numbers possibly compete against MAGIC FLYING ASIANS!
You know, since I left I have come to see there are really 2 Vancouvers.
Fantasy Vancouver is the one where the winters are better then anywhere else, you can go golfing and skiing in the same day, everyone's living like a rock star, everyone's "spiritual" and rich Chinese literally fly over the city looking for ever more expensive real estate to purchase.
*Real* Vancouver is the one where "house" owners have to split their detached dwelling and play landlord to someone living in the basement or better yet, the owners live in the basement and the renters live on the ground floor. Minimum wage is the lowest in Canada while cost of living is the highest. Buildings are poorly constructed (just check the number of rainscreens over buildings less then 10 years old) because "the weather's different here" (Yeah, it never rains in the rest of Canada).
I'm sitting this while sitting in my new apartment. Well, it's not "new", the building is around 150 years old. There are 6 flats in the building and to date I haven't heard a damn thing from any of them. Not a flush, not an argument, not a barking dog (and pets are welcomed here). Me and the bf painted the whole place. I live on a busy street, yet we don't hear a damn thing.The paint job and move cost all of $550. The place is a good 2000 sq. ft. The ceilings are 15 feet. My friends all love the place, and when we get together, *nobody* talks about real estate.
I've decided to start looking for a new job. Within a week of making the decision, I had three solid leads so I have to say there's a lot more opportunity for me here then there was in Van. The next job should involve a substantial raise and an extra week's vacation.
I sincerely feel sorry for those of you who are stuck in Van and can't leave. The coming bloodbath isn't going to be pretty and many of you are going to find yourselves comforting friends and relatives who were affected. I'm not talking about the fools who bought in at wildly inflated prices. I'm talking about the people who will end up laid off because the collapse in RE brought about collapses in all kinds of other businesses as people are finally forced to stop living on credit.
It's a great show to watch…. from here.
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February 13th, 2011 at 12:57 am 182
If there are so many Mainland Chinese buying RE in Vancouver, why do the Landcor numbers not support this? Oh wait, I think I answered my own question.
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February 13th, 2011 at 1:32 am 183
ah, best of luck to you. one more empty seat for those who want to move here.
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:11 am 184
REIC is watching us #165
Ah, the Johnny Horton site!
I wonder if those clowns know that the suckers they are trying to convince are disguised realtors like themselves….except on rare occaisions when someone like Vanrod swallows the bait complete with hook, line, and sinker.
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:16 am 185
@Anonymous: "If there are so many Mainland Chinese buying RE in Vancouver, why do the Landcor numbers not support this?"
Because Landcor doesn't count landed immigrants and PRs as "foreigners".
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:32 am 186
@scullboy:
I find it easy to imagine that you have found a better housing situation somewhere else, and I am genuinely curious as why you would continue to care about what's going on with housing here. Is it perhaps because Vancouver is the Most Entertaining Housing Market on Earth?
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:42 am 187
World Class City!
So it looks like we continue to be the best place on earth and a truly world class city…with gunfights on Granville to celebrate the 1 year anniversary of the games!
<a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Bouncer+injured+after+gunfire+erupts+Granville+Street/4274417/story.html" rel="nofollow">Happy times on Granville
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February 13th, 2011 at 3:07 am 188
@scullboy: Where do you live now?
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February 13th, 2011 at 3:08 am 189
I must say as a long time reader of this blog I am enjoying it now more than ever. In fact, it is the first site I go to in the am. A few random things I am seeing:
1. Nice to see more and more contributors on this site.
2. I am seeing no drop off in the pubs and both high end or low end eating establishments. People obviously have money to spend.
3. I am hearing that business is generally slow for many small business owners. This is not a good sign.
4. The feeling continues to change out there with regards to RE. Most people are seeing the news and all the BS pumping but realize what is happening on the Vancouver Westside does not affect their condo in Poco. I think more and more people are starting to realize that things are at the tipping point. I am hearing more and more people taking about selling and getting out.
These last few months have been interesting and I think the next few will be even more so.
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February 13th, 2011 at 3:35 am 190
@scullboy: NM, I just remembered that you have mentioned NS in the past.
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February 13th, 2011 at 3:39 am 191
@jesse:
"Worse, imagine being your own landlord and feeling the pangs of buyer’s remorse every time your upstairs neighbour takes a leak. That would suck x2."
Been there, done that, SOLD the T-shirt… Thank god.
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February 13th, 2011 at 4:00 am 192
High levels of poverty among immigrant families with children in West Van?
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Sultan+finds…
Ummm, I think not. Why the hell would a genuinely poor family choose to settle in this expensive enclave. Someone needs to point out to Sultan that income is being hidden from the CRA. Income that's probably being earned in a slave-labour factory back in China.
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February 13th, 2011 at 4:03 am 193
I had to giggle a bit when I read the description for this over-priced, over-sized monstrosity in N.Van:
MLS: V868940
What made me laugh was:
1. They are asking $2,485,000 (down from $2,584,000)
2. They state For mortgage helper a self contained 2 bdrm legal suite downstairs
A mortgage helper? Really? If you are thinking of buying a place for over 2.5 million, you shouldn't need a mortgage helper, you need a smaller house
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February 13th, 2011 at 4:13 am 194
I smell a huge day of listings coming up tomorrow and it smells like……like realtors shitting themselves.
The herd is twitching.
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February 13th, 2011 at 4:54 am 195
@Patiently Waiting:
Something's rotten for sure.
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February 13th, 2011 at 5:04 am 196
@Anonymous:
Great blog post on foreign ownership (there are actually 2 previous posts he makes reference to as well)
http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2010/11/25…
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February 13th, 2011 at 5:11 am 197
I miss RealPaul.
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February 13th, 2011 at 5:27 am 198
#194
you enjoy smelling it? Gross! No wonder you are what you are!
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February 13th, 2011 at 7:27 am 199
jesse: "Because Landcor doesn’t count landed immigrants and PRs as “foreigners”.
Thanks for the information.I was just about to ask that question after reading the landcor report. So if non resident and investor/entrepreneur class constitute less than 10% of house sales in 2009, how many sales then belong to permanent residents?
I know of many PR who had bought within 1-3 years upon landing and other PR friends (in my former Richmond apartment in Gilbert Rd) looking to buy this spring. I just hope Vancouver house prices would start correcting after March 18 for my friends's sake. From the email of one my friends, overbidding is still prevalent in Richmond.
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February 13th, 2011 at 7:44 am 200
May just be an anecdote with no real significance but… I am clearing out a bunch of un-needed stuff, like small appliances and random household junk using craigslist; most stuff either free or low price. You would not believe how many people there are replying for this stuff who hail from a certain well known source country for wealthy Real Estate purchasing Cash-Ninjas. One would think that after rappelling down from a helicopter to throw 88 wads of cash and 8 more over asking at the happy natives, one wouldn't worry too much about dropping 30 bucks on an appliance when doing the weekly shop at costco.
Could mean nothing of course, but it seems to me that some are tightening their pocketbooks to keep up with the mortgage payments that eat a large proportion of their incomes.
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February 13th, 2011 at 7:58 am 201
@LY:
There is no distinction in property or tax law between a citizen and a permanent resident (unless the citizen is a non-resident). Land titles don't say which one an owner is, and remember a permanent resident might have arrived yesterday or lived here for decades.
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February 13th, 2011 at 8:07 am 202
#192 Patiently Waiting Says: "High levels of poverty among immigrant families with children in West Van?"
The city has lost its fucking mind. The displaced and outpriced should subsidize residents of the most expensive area in Canada? Here's s thought: move elsewhere. Put your kids above your real estate. Or perhaprs child services can fix this cheaper and quicker.
How do these imbeciles get elected? A Harvard degree apparently no longer is a quality assurance guarantee.
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February 13th, 2011 at 8:08 am 203
I've been thinking about the helicopter-flying foreigner buyers. After 5 years of observing this market, I can officially say that the Vancouver Real Estate market has jumped the shark.
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February 13th, 2011 at 8:18 am 204
http://tinyurl.com/4vyej9a
When I go out and talk to people around town, they say, ‘Wow, I thought we were going to have a 12 percent correction and call it a day,’ ” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the housing site Zillow, which is based in Seattle. “But this thing just keeps on going.”
Hmmm Seattle has mountains oceans and skiing……and an economy too!
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February 13th, 2011 at 8:36 am 205
@VHB:
The real estate cartel has sucked the local buyer's pool dry so they're desperate to bring in offshore buyers to fill the void, hence the increasingly ridiculous stunts.
It'll be a pleasure to see 90% of these filthy parasites unemployed.
"Aiyy, sit on it Cam Good!"
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February 13th, 2011 at 8:41 am 206
@Best place on meth:
Seems to be a lot of pumpers named "Cam"
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February 13th, 2011 at 9:14 am 207
This from the Wallstreet Journal
During the boom, lax lending and speculation pushed house-price inflation far beyond the modest rise in household income. Nationally, the ratio of home prices to annual household income reached a peak of 2.3 in late 2005. But by last September, it had fallen to 1.6, matching the lowest level in the 35 years the data have been collected and well below the historical average of 1.9 between 1989 and 2003.
"Based on incomes, this is as affordable as it gets," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "If you can get a loan, these are pretty good times to buy."
What is Vancouver's ratio 9+?
And we are different how?
This is going to end SO SO much worse than people can possibly dream!
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February 13th, 2011 at 9:21 am 208
@McLovin: Make certain you are looking at the Median Multiple, not average multiple . My personal computation for the median multiple whole of the U.S. in April 2006 (the peak) is 4.9x.
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February 13th, 2011 at 9:26 am 209
@McLovin:
I have no idea where they're getting those numbers, but they don't make any sense. The median household income for the US is about 50K and the median house price is about 175K. Those are 2009 figures. That's still above the historical norm for price/income which is a bit less than 3.
Maybe they're using average household income instead of median. There's a big difference in the US due to income inequality (and a good size difference here). But that's the wrong number to use.
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February 13th, 2011 at 9:53 am 210
@N:
Why do I follow Vancouver real estate? Well, what other juristiction in the country has Magic Flying Asians, plus a media and population gullible enough to swallow that lie hook line and sinker?
It's so funny because Vancouver likes to think of itself as this ultra sophisticated futuristic city, but the locals will believe *anything*, so long as you blow enough smoke up their asses.
Please note I don't count most of the regular reader of this blog as your typical Vancouverite. Supraboy's pretty handy for a yeardstick of Vancouver bull stupidity.
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February 13th, 2011 at 10:16 am 211
@Strataman, "Hmmm Seattle has mountains oceans and skiing……and an economy too!"
Ah, yes, indeed. Accessible mountains, alpine meadows, frolicking marmots, Carbon Glacier, backpack camping … I'd say what Seattle has is superior to what Vancouver has … Woodland Park Zoo, Museum of Flight, culture, food, ….
And oh yeah, I especially like the bit about having an actual economy.
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February 13th, 2011 at 10:27 am 212
@scullboy:
>>>It’s so funny because Vancouver likes to think of itself as this ultra sophisticated futuristic city<<<
Well, we didn't make the list for the worlds most visionary cities.
http://www.travelandleisure.com/articles/worlds-m…
Bike lanes, backyard chickens and selling condos isn't cutting edge enough, I guess.
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February 13th, 2011 at 10:30 am 213
@McLovin:
Some flattening. Of course the whole US has fallen by more than 20% since he said that, never mind California. But the WSJ has never been partial to the housing doomsayers, which I guess is why Mr. Zandi still gets quoted there.
This thread makes a good read. Special guest appearance by our own VHB:
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2005/11/mark-zand…
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February 13th, 2011 at 11:36 am 214
Here is a link to the article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703…
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February 13th, 2011 at 11:45 am 215
@Patiently Waiting:
"High levels of poverty among immigrant families with children in West Van?"
I used to live in West Van — this "poverty" is probably almost wholly derived from non-declaration of foreign income. Poor families, immigrant or otherwise, simply are not over-represented here.
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February 13th, 2011 at 12:37 pm 216
Those flying Chinese realtors should try a stunt like this:
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/entertain…
Or maybe they should hold open houses wearing G strings.
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February 13th, 2011 at 12:49 pm 217
How is it that the UBC campus population has turned Asian in just a few years ?!? I am wondering why the official numbers of Asian immigrants is pretty low, and the influx at UBC is gigantic. Well… I guess this is a case of symbiosis between UBC and foreign "students."
UBC loves international students, since they pay very high international fees. Also UBC was supposed to sell HALF of new developments to staff/students. However, those units are beyond the means of staff members. So foreign students who buy condos are a real bonus.
Now, if you are a "student", so far the appreciation of your condo has paid your tuition fees and you learned to speak good English. May be you could not get into a good university at home, but UBC should not give you any trouble getting in. You just need rich parents who want to invest in a place with a good ROI.
We now hear students complaining their TAs hardly speak English, or that a third of their class has language issues that water down the level of the teaching.
By the way, among some students, UBC stands for University of Beijing, China.
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February 13th, 2011 at 1:06 pm 218
Re: UBC
Post-secondary institutions in BC, including UBC are actively recruiting students from the People's Republic of China, for the differential fees and simply to keep classroom seats filled. There are fewer kids from BC that can afford the cost of higher education in BC, whether it's UBC or BCIT or the other schools.
Universities in BC are also recruiting faculty from China. That has led to some interesting situations, like faculty that are strangely incompetent at their supposed field of expertise but excellent at placing themselves in position for scientific and industrial espionage.
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February 13th, 2011 at 1:20 pm 219
How is it that the UBC campus population has turned Asian in just a few years ?!? I am wondering why the official numbers of Asian immigrants is pretty low, and the influx at UBC is gigantic. Well… I guess this is a case of symbiosis between UBC and foreign “students.”
UBC loves international students, since they pay very high international fees. Also UBC was supposed to sell HALF of new developments to staff/students. However, those units are beyond the means of staff members. So foreign students who buy condos are a real bonus.
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I worked with the senior administration at UBC for five years.
Since the 1990s, they have been steadily increasing the percentage of foreign students, because they are, in part, cash cows. This was particularly evident when the tuition freeze was in effect, as foreign students gave some much needed capital.
I left in 2005, and the percentage of foreign students went from something like 5% in the early 2000s to almost 12%. However, by then UBC was operating without the limits of the tuition freeze, and had already raised tuition quite significantly. The rationale for increasing the percentage of foreign students because they were cash cows no longer made as much sense.
As for the condo developments, trust me, the notion that they were designed for students was just smoke and mirrors. The University could have created more residences, which they needed, if they were trying to accommodate students. The condo developments was just part of turning UBC into a "University Town."
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February 13th, 2011 at 1:22 pm 220
Took a long walk today up Broadway and down 4th Ave in Kits and saw no less than 18 commercial lease signs. Was sorry to see Transylvania Breads was one of them but at $14 a loaf I guess it was inevitable.
It seems like the locals are cash strapped…
I will be anxiously awaiting a few things.
#1 – The grotesque scowls removed from the faces of the Kitsilano bitches
#2 – The local Craigslist server going down in flames from all of the shit for sale
#3 – No more lineups at Capers
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February 13th, 2011 at 1:28 pm 221
@Patiently Waiting:
“High levels of poverty among immigrant families with children in West Van?”
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Wow!
Now you actually have some "hard data" that supports all those anecdotes about rich Asians buying places, dropping the kids, wife, and grandparents in Vancouver, then then earning the big bucks back in China without declaring it here. As a result, the dependents become Canada's dependents, and we provide a whole host of "low income" services to these individuals that are not in need.
Canadians are truly suckers for thinking that recent arrivals will adhere to the "honour system" and the rule of law and order. We are so naive as we fail to realize that the majority of new arrivals come from insecurity, where economic advantages are bestowed to those that are the most corrupt and who abuse the system.
We can only blame our smart politicians, like Harvard boy, who pander to these group when they should have realized how parasitic some can be.
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February 13th, 2011 at 1:31 pm 222
I was at the "Olympic Village" today for a birthday party and I can say that it definitely wasn't a ghost town today. Hard to find parking, lots of people walking around. The Mom of the birthday girl had been by a few times the weeks before and she said this is the first time she says it's been a "ghost town" all of the other times.
It was by no means bustling, but I have to wonder if the recent press over 30% off has brought some tire-kickers out of the woodwork.
The kool-aid is still strong in this city, and the hype of massive price reductions might sadly be enough to bring in a few more suckers.
Oh yeah, no helicopters were spotted.
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February 13th, 2011 at 1:48 pm 223
"the hype of massive price reductions might sadly be enough to bring in a few more suckers."
If I were a Vancouver taxpayer, I wouldn't be sad at all.
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:09 pm 224
Housing Crash Is Hitting Cities Thought to Be Stable
http://tinyurl.com/5rwhej6
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:18 pm 225
Japan eclipsed by China as world's second economy
Japan's post-war "economic miracle" put it at number two behind the United States for more than four decades, but stagnation after the Japanese property bubble burst in the 1990s helped put booming China on course to supplant its neighbour.
[Sarcasm] I'm sure glad there's no property bubble here. [/Sarcasm].
In all seriousness, what a legacy to leave to our children. Greed, greed, greed. The bubble promoters that hang around here make me want to vomit.
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:20 pm 226
"The bubble promoters that hang around here …."
To clarify, this refers to people who've been working hard to keep the bubble inflated, the RE promoters, the cheerleaders, the KoolAid makers/servers, etc.
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:35 pm 227
@Patrick: I've had this argument for the last few years with people. And the evidence is now really starting to bear fruit.
If in fact, this town is really "bustling" as evidenced by high home prices (which many have assumed were bought by the wealthy), then why is discretionary spending so weak? I am willing to bet commercial vacancies took a nasty jump from 2010-11 and this year is not going to be any better.
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:54 pm 228
The March 18 deadline maybe already here, the Old Man at BMO was saying today that unless you take possesion on or before March 18. A 30 amort is all you can get. No preapprovals for 35 being done.
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February 13th, 2011 at 2:59 pm 229
@Patrick: Fret not Patrick, Transylvania has moved to near the SE corner of Alma and 4th, and they are now called Beyond Bread. I think that block they formerly occupied is disintegrating; Coco and Olive next door has seemingly had repeated leakage issues.
My anecdotal data point: A townhouse condo in my neighbourhood, listing now as V867264. It was listed in mid Oct to late Dec 2010 at $878K, there were a few open houses, but the listing disappeared after Xmas. Lo and behold, it is now listed with a new realtor, at the (not-at-all-pandering) price of $888K. What a piece of audacity to the observant of us.
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February 13th, 2011 at 7:10 pm 230
@painted turtle:
When I was going to UBC, back when Pierre and Margaret were an item, people were already calling it "University of a Billion Chinese". And students were complaining that the TA's couldn't speak English.
Foreigners have aways been over represented among grad students (especially in science). As the other poster noted, the % of foreign students overall has gone up, but the vast majority of "Asian" students are in fact citizens or permanent residents.
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February 13th, 2011 at 8:10 pm 231
@Dan in Calgary
Please dont misunderstand me I am not slamming your statement about Japan, but I live here and have for almost two decades. The situation here is very misunderstood by most outside Japan.
The Japanese "stagnation" is probably more to do with its retarded govt. and the aging population. However the bubble that burst here 20 years ago was like a third A bomb. Prices corrected. Some banks disappeared, and merged and repackaging defaulted loans were a hot product here until up to 2002. I actually worked in that area for a while. Prices dropped about 75% (regardless of the gunk you may have read) but Japan unlike Vancouver had alot of other things going for it. Also regardless of what you read housing here in central Tokyo is cheaper than Vancouver. Insane eh? The impending crash in Vancouver will likely have a much more severe effect on the life of BCers than what happend here. Also eventhough China has pulled ahead of Japan, there are only 120 million people in Japan. Per person, Japan kicks the yankees butts. Tokyo has the highest per capita wealth of any city state in the solar system. But unless Japan allows serious immigration, it will slowly fade. Having seen this bubble, the one in Vanocuver is deja vu and is freaking me out. Patiently waiting for the bargains to begin….
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February 13th, 2011 at 9:26 pm 232
@Disgusted Taxpayer: Something else that could be happening, even in West Van, is large houses being rented out to a few Chinese families each. Never mind the house with a single suite, this would be basically ghetto apartment buildings. Yes, even in West Van. They might be putting up with those living conditions to make sure their kids go to the elite schools. I have to wonder whether the concepts of living space are being permanently warped, even in our wealthiest suburbs.
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February 13th, 2011 at 11:50 pm 233
@asia man, Yours was a thoughtful post. Thanks.
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February 13th, 2011 at 11:52 pm 234
[...] vancouvercondo.info February 12th, 2011 at 6:56 pm- “My rented condo is supposedly worth $460k (based on a current listing in the building.) And [...]
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February 14th, 2011 at 12:34 am 235
#224 DonLogan Says:" Housing Crash Is Hitting Cities Thought to Be Stable"
MSM typing head who still doesn't get the bubble was a national phenomena: "Sure, the historically unprecedented home appreciation in those markets were obviously bubbles, but Seattle!?"
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