Friday Free-for-all!

Hey! It’s weekend time and that means it’s time for our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion on all things economy and real estate. Here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:

Olympic Village: Will you buy ’em at 50% off?
Olympic Village trapped in vicious hollow circle
How will rising interest rates affect house prices?
RBC predicts stronger economy will offset rate increases
Race-baiting from the air: local realtors take a helicopter ride outnumbered by media
In 2003 there were 35 China born White Rock residents, 1425 from UK
Shiller “a little bit worried” about Canadian housing market
TD: BC debt to income at 160%, “most vulnerable” province
$10 Trillion destroyed so far in US bubble burst
Dubai prays for housing market recovery

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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blueskies
Guest
blueskies

rich people aren't stupid
stupid people don't get rich

CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder

Silly math for Australian renters:

I have no debt and a term deposit representing 1/3 of my net worth about to expire. Do I renew at 6.3% for 180 days or at 6.6% for one year?

P.S. Thanks for the new oven landlord. Love you! xxx

Kuboo
Guest
Kuboo

I think the problem with the Olympic Village development is that mainland China buyers simply can't appreciate the cum stains when flying over the buildings by helicopter. Take the Sydney Crosby suite for example, the sights and smells of that gently used unit have to be appreciated first hand – boots on the ground.

BoB
Guest
BoB

Interesting read and another preview for Canada?

Fannie, Freddie Phaseout Proposed
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052

Eddie
Guest
Eddie

Jeez, another day and another real estate pump story on the front page of the Sun website… Those guys are relentless slaves to their realwhore masters!

N
Guest
N

@Eddie:

And what a lead:

"Despite Vancouver's high real estate price, there are still several neighbourhoods where detached homes can be found for well below the $1 million mark…"

Well goodness gracious me, under a million you say? Better act fast, heaven knows, such bargains will not last.

gregor
Guest
gregor

@BoB: Since Carney is an ex Goldman Sachs VP aka tentacle #48 on the squid, he will probably follow Geithner's lead and wipe out the CMHC as well. Soon after the banks will have to lend their own money, (God forbid, can you imagine such an atrocity?! their OWN damn money!) House prices would quickly correct to 3-5 times average incomes. Good luck re-financing all you 0/40 ers and 5/35 ers.

Seymour Data
Guest
Seymour Data

A couple of people commented yesterday that the % sold at or above list would be more useful by community. Here's a sample.

Detached House – Last 14 days

Van West – 41%

Richmond – 39%

Van East – 32%

N Van – 26%

W Van – 17%

Surrey – 10%

And since its all over the news;

S Surrey / White Rock – 13%

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

"Four of the city’s top Chinese realtors were flown from Richmond to White Rock on a HeliJet to observe what you can only see from the air – White Rock’s proximity to Richmond"

Yes, you can only see that proximity from the air.

Or by using Google Earth.

Or a regular map.

Seymour Data
Guest
Seymour Data

And for the condo lovers:

Residential Attached – Last 14 Days

Van West – 18%

VHB
Member
VHB

@Seymour Data: Fascinating. Thank you.

Looks like we may have a real segmented market here for the moment. Can such a thing last? Or will those VW buyers suddenly realize that the same money gets them a much better place in WV?

Not much of a name..
Guest
Not much of a name..

But can one make a statement that the market is hot by just using the numbers of list/over list sales? Aren't sales for the month currently running at a below average pace and listings are mounting, rapidly?

registered
Member
registered

#15 VHB Says: "Looks like we may have a real segmented market here for the moment."

I still don't see how we can conclude this without comparing original listed price to local comparable properties. Want to see 100% sold over ask? List all homes at $1. Does this data reveal an important market dynamic, a new marketing approach, or even the early stages of a market bolt for the door? Sellers pricing low to take profits in expectation of a correction fits this data just as well as oh-my-god-the-mainlanders-are-coming.

Seymour Data
Guest
Seymour Data

@VHB: I too am fascinated by the number of people willing to pay above asking for what is most likely the biggest purchase of their life. I think it really speaks to the psychology of the market.

Seymour Data
Guest
Seymour Data

@Not much of a name…: Good points. I just started looking at this data and don't have my head around it yet. But if you look at my post yesterday the % sold at or over lists correlates pretty well with rising or falling prices. My guess is it is a good indicator of what is happening right now but maybe not at good as MOI for what will happen in the coming months. However, the ratio does have one advantage in that it seems to not be affected by seasonality.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@VHB:

This data doesn't have much relevance in the bigger picture and the bigger picture is sales, listings and MOI.

A micro market in real estate can hold out for a short time but eventually follows the broader market.

The broader market is flashing a "SELL" sign.

Not much of a name..
Guest
Not much of a name..

@Seymour Data: I should have added that yes your data is fascinating. It's just another way of looking at the market. Keep up the good work.

Anon
Guest
Anon

Finally snapped and wrote my MP and MLA today. So pissed off about not being able to afford a home here to raise a family. My wife and myself have good incomes, but taking on a 600k mortgage would be sheer insanity. The White Rock article seriously pissed me off. Tired of reading about our properties being sold to wealthy Chinese buyers who don't live here or add any value to our communities. The people that work hard and add value get seriously screwed over by this… I'm seriously considering moving to somewhere like San Diego where I can get a higher paying job and a much nicer house.

jesse
Member

@Best place on meth: "This data doesn’t have much relevance in the bigger picture and the bigger picture is sales, listings and MOI."

Not to put too fine a point on it, but over/under list turns out to be highly negatively correlated to MOI. The most fascinating part of these data is that it verifies how list prices are "upwards sticky" in a bear market. We knew this as "common knowledge" but this is the first time it's been put in analytical form.

808
Guest
808

selling over-list has a lot to do with marketing.

Friends sold a condo in the summer of 09. Their Realtor had them list 60k under comparables. His reasoning was that there were so many places on the market and people can only visit so many open houses. So, to get more interest, they listed lower and due to this, had a huge number of people show up for the open house and sold it the next week for higher than comparables.

Seymour Data
Guest
Seymour Data

@jesse: Interesting. What I'm hoping is that knowing the % sold at or above list will help explain those months where listings are increasing, sales are slowing and still the benchmark price goes up. Drives me nuts when I can't explain something.

Devore
Member
Devore

Oh hey, offtopic, Pope and company, I noticed on my Blackberry the story pages (but not main page) have an automatic mobile theme now, something changed in the last week?

Seymour Data
Guest
Seymour Data

@808: So in your example, despite listing the property low, a sale above list actually raised the average price of the comparables.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@jesse:

Here's something else to consider:

I look at every single sale of West Side SFH's and the one thing that stands out the most is that the houses selling over list are the ones that have just hit the market.

The majority that sell within 10 days of being listed sell over ask, many way over.

Over 10 days on market, if they sell it's below ask in most cases.

Meanwhile the other 400+ west side houses are still languishing on the market.

Why is there no interest in these?

Devore
Member
Devore

@CanuckDownUnder: Is there something you'll need the money for in 6 months or 1 year? What are the goals and purpose of this 1/3 allocation? If you need money, are the other 2/3 liquid enough to sell quickly?

This is not a yes/no question. If you can't figure it out, it may be time to consult a professional.

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