Friday Free-for-all!
Hey everybody! It’s the end of yet another work week and that means it’s time for our weekend news round up and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
-OV condo bargains: 1 bdrm 790 square feet now only $590k! (video)
-OV suites so close “it will be like non-stop reality TV.”
-Ready to lose money taxpayers?
-Vancouver house shopping? Welcome to the money pit.
-Earn good money lining up for condos!
-Apparently only chinese language media interested in lineup story
-50% increase in mortgage delinquency
-What’s going on with Vancouvers west side?
-Household debt surpasses six figure mark
-Housing market implications of BCs age structure
-Olympic white elephants?
-34% of Seattle houses now worth less than their mortgages
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
February 17th, 2011 at 5:43 pm 1
Housing envy and the ‘Joneses’…How a realignment in consumer expectations will pull at aggregate Canadian house prices
http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2011/02/17…
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February 17th, 2011 at 7:30 pm 2
Beware the ides of March
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:07 pm 3
I was in Spain earlier this week, Barcelona in particular. A few years ago, Barcelona had a Vancouver-style housing bubble. Now everyone there is hurting and their system of regional savings banks is ready to go under. Spain is a beautiful country, but a property bubble will be their fiscal undoing.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:22 pm 4
@Dave:
Um, seriously? I've always been pretty scrupulous about *not* taking a strip off you. I don't agree with you but I at least respected your right to hold an opinion and left you alone.
None of you have seen me at my worst, not even Grampy. Getting him riled up was entertainment.
If you feel like mixing it up… bring it, son.
Just remember that you asked for it.
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February 17th, 2011 at 8:56 pm 5
http://www.courts.gov.bc.ca/jdb-txt/SC/11/01/2011…
The courts seized two grow-op houses that belonged to a housing developer. There was actually three houses involved, adjacent to each other on the 5000 block of Boundary Rd.
I'm not really clear why the developer got to keep one of the houses, as they seemed to be one operation spanning all three properties.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:08 pm 6
These are houses that first-timers who can't bear to leave the {city are investing in, to raise their families and build their futures. Houses like the 100-year-old Vancouver east-side fixer-upper that recently sold for $800,000, which was $151,000 over its list price after a bidding war.
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/life/Buying+house+Van…
BEAR LISTEN NOW AND REPEENT YOUR CRIME WHICH MISLEAD MANY FIRST-TIME BUYERS FEW YRS AGO AND THEY ARE NOW BE PRICED OUT FOREVER.
yOUR CRIME ARE UNIMAGINABLE DISGUSTING;WHERE IS THE FREAKING 50% CORRECTION? YOUR DEAD FEET STILL STICKING OUT FROM THE COOOKING POT IN DEFIANCE?
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:10 pm 7
@Patiently Waiting:
WHAT DOES IT RELEVANT TO THE RED HOT MARKET;WILL THIS PC OF SHIT UTTERING WILL DAMPEN THE SPIRIT OF CHINSE BUYERS. TAKE YOR MED NOW.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:11 pm 8
@Rocker guy:
WHAT DOES IT RELAVENT TO VANCOUVER?
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:20 pm 9
"OV condo bargains: 1 bdrm 790 square feet now only $590k!"
My question is for that price, whos cum stains do you get? They'd have to be at least silver medal cum stains.
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February 17th, 2011 at 9:26 pm 10
Extremely poor house owner:
Dampen Chinese spirits? Really? I thought the official line was that nothing could slow the purchasing power of Magic Flying Asians. Are you saying they read this blog and invest accordingly?
Honestly if they did I wouldn't be the least surprised. I mean who can predict what Magic Flying Asians are going to do next?
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:26 pm 11
@scullboy:
No, it wasn't srsly. Just a joke. Sorry if it wasn't taken as such.
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February 17th, 2011 at 10:31 pm 12
@Patiently Waiting:
That "developer" was a slum lord that allowed his houses to be used as grow-ops. So says: Kim Bolan: http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun/blogs/…
I wish it was a developer.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:21 pm 13
@Dave,
That's why I always ask "Are you *sure* you want to get into it? It avoids misunderstandings.
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February 17th, 2011 at 11:35 pm 14
Driving in to work this morning and CBC radio had a segment with some OV on-site interviews….
1. Existing owner: "Not concerned that others will purchase at lower price. Like buying a dress today and it goes on sale in a couple weeks. That's how it works around here".
Translation: Ya, I got duped but have no grounds to sue so I'll just suck it up.
2. Ontario visitor: "Heard about it and just wanted to see what the OV was all about. Sure, I'll consider a unit".
Translation: Just hunting for Sidney's stains and hell no, I will not buy here. Condo's in Toronto is hurting more… I'll buy it there instead.
3. Renter: "Love the place. It feels new… No way I will buy one. They slapped it together so quickly. Concerned about the quality."
Translation: Rent is good, unit is new. When it leaks or does not feel new anymore, I'll hand the keys back to the landlord and find another new unit somewhere else to rent.
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February 18th, 2011 at 12:41 am 15
can someone please explain what the heck that graph in 3rd link from the bottom means? I can't understand it. what is the x axis supposed to represent?
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February 18th, 2011 at 12:51 am 16
15 Anonymous Says: "what is the x axis supposed to represent?"
Percent of population.
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February 18th, 2011 at 12:58 am 17
Onni Pamphlet [thanks to VillageWhisperer]:
Developer Pamphlet – "3 Reasons To Buy In 30 Days" [before prices drop]
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1RM
Developers 'Onni' lay out why we should all rush to buy ASAP. If you pause for a moment, of course, you'll realize that tightening requirements will restrict you and everybody else after 18 March, and thus put downward pressure on prices, and thus you'll very likely save even more money by simply waiting. But, then, Vancouver buyers aren't well known for letting logic get in the way of a good speculative buying opportunity. Race you to the sales desk!
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:00 am 18
ooops… sorry, my html command seems to have bolded the whole thread… please undo if possible, Pope
[actually, this action can be traced to servers in China...]
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:08 am 19
@Squished by Squatchi: "3. He is also a property developer. He has built duplexes, townhouses, and a recently completed multiplex in Vancouver in April of 2009. He developed his first project in 1993, and estimates that he has developed between 25 and 30 duplexes, townhouses, or homes. In addition to his full-time work as a longshoreman, he works full-time as the general contractor and foreman of his development projects. Family members also help on the sites. When a project is underway, he does not sleep much, as he simultaneously maintains full-time work as a longshoreman."
Further down it mentions the houses were a land assembly and he planned to build apartments there.
"(d) The defendant was, and is, actually a developer. These three properties are side by side. This is completely consistent with them being acquired for development purposes, as the defendant testified."
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:26 am 20
Hong Kong curbing of house flipping coincides with local real estate boom
Ahhhh. Now THAT explains it LOL
A "joint investigation" now means reading Bloomberg and Reuters news headlines? Wow that's Woodward and Bernstein caliber stuff, that is.
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:34 am 21
I was talking to a friend last night and he mentioned they're trying to sell their coquitlam condo – they're out of room and want to have another kid. They bought 5 years ago and have tried selling it two times last year with no luck. The unit is up for sale once again, and yesterday they reduced it down to the same price they bought it for 5 years ago. They cannot afford to reduce it anymore, so if they cannot sell they've come to the realization that they're basically trapped – potentially for 5+ years depending on where the market goes.
This is precisely why I have refused to buy when I first started looking a few years ago.
Thanks to everyone here! (well… almost everyone.)
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:40 am 22
Anonymous Said: "tried selling it two times last year with no luck."
As Patriotz often points out, luck plays no role here – they were simply asking too much. From here on in they will get less and less for it. IE sell now or be priced in forever.
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:42 am 23
How much of a drop in price in Seattle did it take
to result in the 34%??
Probably not that much. Maybe just a correction of sorts.
Signs of things to come my friends.
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:53 am 24
@jesse:
I was talking to a friend of mine yesterday, he's local Chinese and sells real estate on the side mostly in Burnaby, Coquitlam and VE.
He told me that the lastest spike in sales in VW and Richmond is due to new regulations in China that bans the purchase of third homes in all major cities.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beijings-crackdo…
For what it's worth he absolutely hates these offshore Chinese, but then again he doesn't sell real estate in either of those 2 areas.
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:53 am 25
It is always interesting to see how many people who have bought over the past 5 years can't even break even. With all that spin coming from the cheer leaders you would think they could at least sell for what they paid.
I guess if they were going to buy a more expensive house then maybe not selling is a blessing in disguise. If they can't afford to take a small loss today it won't look better in 5 years. They may be trapped for more like 20 years.
All the pumpers who talk about the advantages of owing forgot the part when prices don't go up it sucks to own, especially when you pay more than rent on a monthly basis with a 35 year amort which pays almost nothing off for the first 10 years.
Best advice for them is to sell now for what the market will pay and then rent are larger place.
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:56 am 26
@Best place on meth:
YOU have a realtor friend?! Do you call him a worthless cheerleader to his face? I call bullshit on this anecdote.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:00 am 27
@vreaa: RE:“3 Reasons To Buy In 30 Days”
I'm a bit confused. One of the reasons given for buying before March 18th is to avoid paying a larger deposit. Where did this come from? There's no increase in the min DP in the new rules. The only thing I can think of is potentially a closing of the cash back loophole which allowed for 0 down. Thoughts?
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:01 am 28
@Anonymous:
"I was talking to a friend last night and he mentioned they’re trying to sell their coquitlam condo – they’re out of room and want to have another kid. They bought 5 years ago and have tried selling it two times last year with no luck. The unit is up for sale once again, and yesterday they reduced it down to the same price they bought it for 5 years ago. They cannot afford to reduce it anymore, so if they cannot sell they’ve come to the realization that they’re basically trapped – potentially for 5+ years depending on where the market goes."
This makes no sense. If they bought 5 years ago they should surely be able to sell for a profit. I think the real story is that they can't sell it and make a $100k or whatever they want. There is no way they bought in 2006 and can't sell at a profit. We aren't at that point yet. If it really is the case and they can't break even then all the numbers the RE industry put out are completely false.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:01 am 29
Meth quote-I was talking to a friend of mine yesterday, he’s local Chinese and sells real estate on the side mostly in Burnaby, Coquitlam and VE.
hey Meths! image of you shattered! you havve friend who is Realtard! Maybe he can get you job! Theres a test though nutslap! haha
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:05 am 30
25 Renting Says: "With all that spin coming from the cheer leaders you would think they could at least sell for what they paid."
A humorous exercise would be to track that spin. When I first entered these forums a few years back it was 'everyone wants to live in BC, BPoE.' Over the years that 'best place' first discarded the rest of the province, then the lower mainland, then anything west of Boundary, and now it's shedding specific housing components within that. Today's short cheerleader answer to the Coquitlam condo problem would no doubt be "obvious: should have bought a SFH west of Boundary."
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:09 am 31
@Troll:
Actually he's not a cheerleader, he sees the writing on the wall regarding debt levels and rising interest rates and believes the market is going to tank. I talk to him once in a while to get some perspective on the market.
Also, he just does this on the side so he's not dependent on screwing people over to get a commission.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:11 am 32
@Anonymous:
Something doesn't add up with this anecdote. Benchmark is up 30% in 5 years, they've paid down some principal over 5 years and they can't sell for what they paid? Impossible unless they made some very very bad decisions along the way.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:12 am 33
28 DaMann Says: "This makes no sense. If they bought 5 years ago they should surely be able to sell for a profit."
It would surprise me. Today's MLS listings show over 200 units for sale within a kilometer of Pinetree and Guilford.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:15 am 34
Huh. I recently heard that my American cousin in Washington DC bought a house. I emailed her to congratulate her, and mentioned something about a bubble here in Vancouver. She emailed back that yes, she bought a "house"-well this turns out to be a 676 square foot row house, for the sum of $355k. Yikes! I guess real estate prices haven't dropped in Washington, DC yet. Just goes to show that real estate really is local, though we hear stories of $50k houses in Arizona, this apparently doesn't apply to every single city in the US.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:16 am 35
Ooops, "wouldn't" surprise me.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:26 am 36
34 pricedoutfornow Says:"I guess real estate prices haven’t dropped in Washington, DC yet. Just goes to show that real estate really is local…"
Nice try, pumpboy. Have you heard of this new fangled 'Google' thing?
http://blog.redfin.com/washingtondc/2010/03/case-…
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:29 am 37
@Anonymous: "yesterday they reduced it down to the same price they bought it for 5 years ago."
There a real possibility the benchmark prices are not telling the whole story due to how they are calculated.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:29 am 38
@pricedoutfornow:
D.C. has high incomes, Vancouver does not.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:35 am 39
@pricedoutfornow: Depends on what area of DC but maybe that's a good price considering the rents and incomes.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:39 am 40
38 Best place on meth: Low tier Washington DC properties fell 50% between the springs of 2007 and 2009 and presumably are back to the same downward trajectory as the rest of the country. 'pricedoutfornow' is full of shit, and none too bright for believing that information couldn't be trivially uncovered.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:39 am 41
@Best place on meth: hey meth youre not helping vancouver income levels! ha haha
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:43 am 42
Mayor of Detroit offering homes to police officers for $1000/down.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/detroit-mayor-offers-cop…
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:54 am 43
I hate when negative comments are censored.
This blog is biased.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:55 am 44
@jesse: There are several new condo towers around Coquitlam Centre, many partly empty. I can see how this would both boost the benchmark and make it very difficult to sell used condos. I don't have this faith in the benchmark that some people do.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:57 am 45
@Troll:
It's certainly not impossible. Check out the listings in the area to see what they are competing against. Also it is possible they, like many owners who were feeling suddenly wealthy, took out lines of credit or refinanced against their paper gains.
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February 18th, 2011 at 2:59 am 46
"This makes no sense. If they bought 5 years ago they should surely be able to sell for a profit. I think the real story is that they can’t sell it and make a $100k or whatever they want."
—–
Or… they may mean that appreciation has been at a lower pace than their HELOC withdrawals, so they'll walk away with less/nothing.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:00 am 47
@Devore: Exactly, the only way this is possible is if they HELOC'ed the bejeezus of their property, hence made poor financial decisions. This type of situation shouldn't be used as an indicator of the market as a whole since you will always be able to find people who did dumb things with money.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:01 am 48
@Devore: you beat me to the HELOC point.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:02 am 49
@Patiently Waiting: Really bears, you are questioning benchmarks now too? Are you seriously implying that the market in Coquitlam has been flat for 5 years? Please provide some, any kind, of stats which could support such a proposterous bald faced lie.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:05 am 50
@Patiently Waiting: "don’t have this faith in the benchmark that some people do"
I would characterize the benchmark as offering a better idea of price changes than would the average or median, but is not as good as same-unit sales data, for which we have no breakdown for condos specifically without mining MLS or LTO data, and we all know the entire data set is not readily available to mere mortals.
If certain properties with high quality finishing are selling better than lower quality stock, then the benchmark will likely not track the reality on the street. Benchmark prices are also lagging data, which is why listings and sales (leading data) are so much more fun to track!
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:08 am 51
@jesse: At the end of the day, use any stat you want, there is no way you can prove that Coquitlam condos are the same price today as 5 years ago. I mean really?
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:08 am 52
@Alum: "This blog is biased"
It's a frickin' blog, not 'the truth'. Christ. If you don't like what you read here go elsewhere. It's a big internet. Go find your warm and fuzzy place.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:09 am 53
VW detached on public MLS dropped from 460 units on Wed to 445 today. Still up by a lot over the last few weeks, but maybe this is the first sign of the 'hot' VW market. Will have to see if inventory continues down/level/up.
On the other hand, VE detached up +26 from Wed to Friday.
Might just be daily noise, though.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:10 am 54
@Troll: "the market in Coquitlam has been flat for 5 years?"
That's not exactly what was stated. The supposition is that a specific condo is listed for the same price it was bought for 5 years ago, which would be 2006. If the unit is out of warranty and/or there is significant competition, this this may not be too far off. The depreciation schedule for condos will be faster due to a higher ratio building capital being part of the purchase price.
I believe M- indicated a property he once owned on the west side that was sold 2007ish was relisted recently for about the same price.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:12 am 55
@jesse:
@fixie guy:
I dunno, look at this graph, sure doesn't seem like prices have dropped much at all. "The city of Washington, DC has seen median home prices fall $65,000 (15%) since the peak, and they're still sliding down slowly.Washington, DC has been the most immune of the immunozones due to its ability to suck on the federal government's teat."
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2011/02/immunozon…
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:12 am 56
@Troll: It may be stupid, but not uncommon. How do you think Canadians got to 160% debt ratio?
When I came over here from Calgary, before real estate there boomed, I was amazed by the amount of new cars on the road, and believed Vancouverites were well off and wealthy. I still go back to Calgary at least twice a year, and I see the same thing. But now I know better. How people can afford new cars, exotic vacations, iPads, fancy threads, 50' TVs, home remodelling and redecorating, is no longer a mystery to me.
It is not a surprise for me that so many people are fooled. I used to be in the same place 3 years ago.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:14 am 57
@VHB:
>>>VW detached on public MLS dropped from 460 units on Wed to 445 today.<<<
I saw a lot of listings pulled the last 2 days.
Don't know why, but they'll be back.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:16 am 58
"here is no way you can prove that Coquitlam condos are the same price today as 5 years ago. I mean really?"
I think there will be a few examples of this. A relative of mine bought a DT unit on presale and sold it mid-2010 for the same price they paid after fees, with no depreciation (sold within 4 months of completion). The presale contract was signed in about 2007. Some specific Coq stuff, being more on the periphery, may now be 2006 break-even. Not sure if it's representative of the entire market but I'm not surprised some people are finding it challenging selling at a capital gain.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:30 am 59
@Troll:
Troll, you need to settle down. No one is saying or implying the market overall was flat.
Real estate depreciates. It's a fact. How much can you get for a 10 year old condo, psft, vs a comparable brand new unit?
The benchmark is supposed to reflect the "typical" property. If your area is experiencing a high rate of new construction, then the benchmark will reflect that. Individual properties, such as your busted old condo may not keep up, especially where there's a high number of listings of new units which closer match the benchmark specs.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:35 am 60
jesse Says:
Not sure if it’s representative of the entire market but I’m not surprised some people are finding it challenging selling at a capital gain.
Gives you a good idea of the amount of pain this market may have to bare, if there are cases like this surfacing already.
FYI, that link in the first post is a good little read about what happens when a significant proportion of the population lives beyond their means for an extended period of time. It's gonna get ugly. And fast.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:40 am 61
@jesse: Likely a leaky condo…
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:40 am 62
Sovereign in Burnaby by Bosa;
http://www.facebook.com/BosaProperties?v=wall
What? Fake condo line up? Funny they haven't taken that comment down.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:51 am 63
@jesse: People who NEED to sell (due to circumstances they cannot avoid), or are highly motivated to do so (such as planning a bigger family or wanting to take a promotion/relocation), don't care what the benchmark is doing, whether the average is the same as the median, or any of those things. All they care about is how the market is treating THEIR house. They will price it initially, and then keep cutting the price until it either sells, or until they cannot cut anymore.
It's easy to get caught up in the metrics and the upbeat headlines, and no doubt many people will apply how the market overall is purportedly doing to their own situation, and perhaps take out too much equity or leverage themselves too deeply.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:51 am 64
@vreaa:
I'm on on the Onni mailing list. I received that email a few minutes ago and thought it was such a joke, I sent the following response (sorry for the length):
==========================
To whom it may concern,
What an absolutely misleading and outrageous email. I am completely and utterly disgusted with this type of marketing. This email is an out and out lie. The government has recognized that the 0/40 and 5/35 CMHC insured mortgages were putting Canadians in a risky position in terms of debt and were not responsible. Gradually we will see a return to 10/25 in recognition that a debt-fuelled consumer society is not good for anyone long term.
"You will save up to $200 per month in mortgage payments". Really? Where is the calculation that shows how much more interest a person will pay with a 35 year amortization instead of a 30 year amortization? "Save" is incorrect and misleading. How about "you can pay less per month but substantially more over the full mortgage term". That is the truth.
"Buy with less money down". Absolutely irresponsible. As a company that relies on a stable, consistent real estate market long term, Onni should not be encouraging people to go further into debt to purchase a home, this will only hurt everyone in the long run. There was also NO change to the minimum down payment amount.
"You can afford more home". Absolutely incorrect. If you cannot "afford" a home at 30 years that you can "afford" at 35 years then you should not be purchasing that home. Maxing out your mortgage is irresponsible and leads to consumers being house poor.
"Increased cost of same home". Again, completely misleading. Where is the calculation showing the total cost including interest for this same home when comparing different amortization lengths?
I am absolutely disappointed to see this type of marketing intended to confuse those who are not financially literate. It simply shows that Onni is interested in only short term gain and short term dollars. This also shows that Onni is highly dependent on 35 year amortizations to complete sales and this is exactly why the government introduced these amendments in the first place. I'm sure Onni is dreading upcoming interest rate increases and how that will affect revenues.
I will be forwarding this email and my response to the Better Business Bureau.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:52 am 65
@900kCrackHouse: "Likely a leaky condo"
I disagree a significant special assessment is a requirement for flat condo prices since 2006. All it takes is a change in warranty coverage, lots of competition for sale, and general wear and tear.
I know of anecdotes from people who are in a similar situation and selling at break-even (based on sell price minus bought price). I'm neither stating it's the norm, nor that prices are generally flat over 5 years, only that it's plausible.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:54 am 66
@jesse: "I believe M- indicated a property he once owned on the west side that was sold 2007ish was relisted recently for about the same price."
—
Yes, M- did say that, 7 Jan 2011.
Here's the story:
"In spring 2007, I sold my Vancouver Westside condo for $435K. The new owner has put it up for sale. They’ll come out with a LOSS, after owning the property for 4 years."
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Ji
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:55 am 67
@Troll:
A property does not have a price except at the time it is sold. At all other times you can only estimate it. However if a property has been listed for over a month and has not sold, that's a very good indication that the owner is asking above market price.
No doubt there are some condos selling this month that also sold 5 years ago, and they either sold for more, less, or the same price. That's ALL that's provable.
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:59 am 68
@Devore: "It’s easy to get caught up in the metrics and the upbeat headlines"
Yeah for the individual I think you're right. Assessed value, nosing into what neighbours are selling (or trying to sell) for, and calculating how much they would get by a sale, provide more motivation for people to list than reading some article in the Sun. JMHO.
For a data nerd like me who is looking at general trends, the benchmark is good enough. Price per square foot might be better, actually.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:03 am 69
Troll,
I have no reason to make this up, and he has no reason to lie to me. You honestly think that every condo (in Coquitlam?) is up 30% from 2006? I just had a look at a building I was interested in in Burnaby (4132 Halifax), #1102 sold for $417,000 Nov 2007 – #1402 is currently for sale for $439,000, #1902 & 2302 for $459,000. If I bought #1102 and tried to sell now, how would I do?
So condo's in Coquitlam breaking even is not out of the realm of possibility – and in my friend's case, very much a shitty reality.
Also, Jesse's right, the warranty expired recently and there is a lot of competition.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:10 am 70
My coworker was talking about how he went to the Beasley in dt presale years ago and missed out and should have bought.
I went back to the office did a quick search of presale prices and then some assignment sale prices, not much difference and a few had reduced prices for the assignment price.
After showing him what I found, and explaining that person basically had their downpayment sitting there doing nothing for the past couple years. His response was that assignment sale looks like a good deal its gonna be worth more in a couple years..
So delusional.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:12 am 71
@jesse:
They're sort of complementary, no? The benchmark tells you what the typical house looks like, price per square foot tells you how good a deal buyers are getting, so even as average and median are moving up, if psft is falling, that effectively means price cuts; buyers are getting more for their money.
It's difficult to judge anything based on a single metric. There are too many moving parts.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:17 am 72
@Anonymous: you know your friend's address, why not look up the 2006 sale price, and the current list price, and report back.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:21 am 73
“This makes no sense. If they bought 5 years ago they should surely be able to sell for a profit. I think the real story is that they can’t sell it and make a $100k or whatever they want.”
If you recall the post yesterday about those Calgary condos that took a bath: http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2011/02/17/ove…
Compare the price drops of those individual units with the overal Calgary benchmark over the same period, and you'll see that the Coquitlam ancedote is possible.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:26 am 74
VancouverFiveOh Says:
February 18th, 2011 at 11:51 am
@vreaa:
I’m on on the Onni mailing list. I received that email a few minutes ago and thought it was such a joke, I sent the following response (sorry for the length):
*****
Great response!
I actually have an old ex-girlfriend that got hired on Onni's marketing team (swear to god).
She is as naive and clueless as they come, but has no qualms about lying. She actually outright lied about her educational credentials and experience to get the job (and past jobs), and continues to lie by omission (e.g. writes "attended SFU 2000-2004, Economics" rather than "SFU 2000-2004, BA Economics" because she never completed a BA).
So the glaring lie about around the "minimum down payment" does not shock me at all. If the rest of the marketing team is anything like her in terms of spinning things, lazily conducting due diligence and outright lying, then you can expect more misleading information from ONNI.
Glad to see that she works for a company with the same scruples!
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:27 am 75
I think you bears are missing the whole point about this Coquitlam condo post. The original posting used the anecdote to re-affirm his/her belief that not buying in 2006 was a good financial decision. How is that different from a bull who uses an anecdote of a neighbor who recently sold his teardown overlist to a rich Asian investor as affirmation of their recent purchase? Neither cases are really representative of the market as a whole, as shown by almost any metric or stat available. All this example shows is that this particular person either didn't do his due diligence at the time of purchase, made some bad financial decisions in the past 5 years, or suffered some bad bad luck. Remember in early 2006 we were right in the middle of the boom (we're not talking about late 2007 or 2008), any smart prudent bear buying at the time would almost certainly not be underwater today. Trying to argue otherwise just exposes affirmation bias.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:29 am 76
…or rather confirmation bias.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:35 am 77
@Troll: wow, you've exposed bear bias on this blog. shocking.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:42 am 78
Without getting into specific details, here's my anecdote on a Coquitlam condo. I no longer have it due to a myriad of personal reasons.
Bought in 1994 – 1 br – $120,000
Value today – according to similar units in the same building on MLS – $200,000
Increase of $80k over 17 years (3.9% per year on average)
Property tax/strata – about $3k per year – about $50k
Special assesment – $17k (not sure if there were more after I left)
Profit before closing costs on sale – $13k
And then there are interest costs….
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:43 am 79
@Joshua: I know, it's real groundbreaking insight. Maybe some bears will realize that their anecdotes and analysis suffer from the problems as those of the bulls. But probably not, since these posts will get voted down in less than 30 minutes. Pope, if Dave gets an exemption, I want one too.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:43 am 80
@Anonymous: Liar!! Real estate in Vancouver only ever goes up in price! Having come to this realisation much too late in the process I am now trying to sell off my St. Joseph statue marketing company.
In all seriousness, the Coquitlam condo story is entirely plausible and reminds me of a similar situation that I witnessed while living in the northeast US about 7 or 8 years ago. A friend of mine was going through a nasty divorce and she and her now-ex-husband put their relatively new (about 5 years old) house on the market thinking that they were going to make out like bandits (this would have been late summer/early fall 2004, when the market there was still about one year from its peak).
They ultimately ended up selling for a few thousand dollars more than their initial purchase price (I know the details because my friend ended up marrying a very good mate of mine). Of course, when calculating all costs, they ended up losing tens of thousands of dollars. The silver lining is that she found out about the ex's philandering ways as soon as she did, since trying to sell into the post-2005 market would not have been fun.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:44 am 81
Where is 'Sheriff' Dave when you need him.
All sorts of confusing things being posted today.
1. Condos depreciate. Apparently, this is not something well understood in the Lower Mainland. LM condos probably depreciate faster due to the terrible construction standards. (LEAKS) It's not bear bias to understand that depreciation occurs. It's completely understandable that a property purchased 5 years ago might sell for the same price today. With all the bull bias in the LM, people seem to be lacking this important bit of knowledge.
2. Onni has broadcast an email giving advice which on the face appears misleading, and predatory.
I'm sure "sheriff" Dave will be along any minute now riding on his high horse Bulls-eye, and we can pull the string in his (Dave's) back, and he'll shout out some wisdom for us all. "Someone's poisoned the water hole" or something; no doubt it will clear everything up for those of us that neglect to seek council from janitors. (As Dave claims to.)
Too bad his fascinating and keen commentary will be downvoted to oblivion. lol.
Enlighten us Dave, I await your posts with bated breath.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:48 am 82
@Anonymous:
So you use an example of a place that was bought at the last market top before a 6 year correction? LOL.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:52 am 83
@Troll: Well spotted. I guess this anecdote and the Coquitlam condo one serve to remind us that in the real estate game the two most important factors are i) when you purchase, ii) what you purchase.
Purchasing in Vancouver 1994 was financially stupid, as is purchasing in Vancouver now.
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February 18th, 2011 at 4:59 am 84
@Troll: Exactly why are you LOL? You can't just cherry pick dates and say RE is always a good investment even long term. I'm sure that this may be the case with recent purchases in Vancouver. Only time will tell.
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:00 am 85
I was just watching the ‘broadening top’ play out in silver, and it got me wondering if the same psychological pattern is playing out in Canadian real estate. First, if you are interested, here is a quick and sufficient Wikipedia explanation of the ‘broadening top’ (or megaphone).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadening_top
If you think of it as speaking into a megaphone ( < ), the mouthpiece for Vancouver starts mid 2007.
http://www.buyric.com/news/files/2011/02/Greater-…
Another variation of the bearish broadening top formation is Toronto.. more of an upward tilted flat-bottomed megaphone.
http://www.housepriceindex.ca
Van’s could be viewed as a tilted one too, if you consider the start mid 2006. The most wicked thing I find with broadening tops, are the nasty psychological ‘bull traps’ accompanying them. Bulls often buy in near ‘c’ and worse ‘e’, as they feel the all clear has been given as price clears the previous high.
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:04 am 86
@55 pricedoutfornow: Interesting graph, had to look up what Zillow's index represents. It's market median, which though better than average is still subject to influence from sales mix. As a matched sales pair the Case Shiller is a far more accurate measure of individual property values. Graph generated from the latest data below:
http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/1632/cshpi2010…
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:09 am 87
#78 Anonymous Says:
Bought in 1994 – 1 br – $120,000….
Value today – …$200,000…
Profit before closing costs on sale – $13k
$120K 1994 dollars = $164,181 2011 dollars. Subtract $44k from that $13K profit.
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:14 am 88
Actually thinking about it. The similarities are fairly similar to today. It shows what can happen today…
Add this up
5% down at market top + dropping values + pers financial issues
This all equals a world of hurt. There will be many people that will feel the same when they can't sell their RE unless they are able to write a large cheque. Most won't be able to and there aren't many options after that.
As a bear looking at things today. I've been torched once and I'm a little gunshy these days. I'm at the point that I can easily enter the market. I just shake my head at the people that are blowing their brains out with the idea of buying RE at any cost. Unfortunately, some people don't realize what that cost will be. I pity these people.
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:15 am 89
@fixie guy: I know. My example was as basic as I could put it. Most people don't look at real numbers, just the nominal.
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:31 am 90
@fixie guy:
Interesting, perhaps prices have come down quite a bit. It does seem to me though that $355k for a 2 bed, 1 bath townhouse is still too expensive. My cousin does not make a fortune, her salary is around $70k, but perhaps there are people in Washington, DC who do make enough to buy houses for a million dollars (a quick look at Zillow tells me that there are many SFHs which are pretty pricey). After hearing all about the housing bubble popping in the US, this news from my cousin really surprised me.
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:46 am 91
@Troll:
>>>Pope, if Dave gets an exemption, I want one too.<<<
Stop your fucking whining, both of you.
This is an adult discussion board.
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:48 am 92
@4SlicesofCheese:
"My coworker was talking about how he went to the Beasley in dt presale years ago and missed out and should have bought. I went back to the office did a quick search of presale prices and then some assignment sale prices, not much difference and a few had reduced prices for the assignment price. "
If memory serves the Beasley developers cut prices for Phase 2 of their presale and even applied the cuts retrospectively to those who bought in Phase 1, giving some sort of refund to previous buyers.
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:52 am 93
#90 Best place on meth Says: "Stop your fucking whining, both of you."
Wait, you mean it's two people?
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February 18th, 2011 at 5:52 am 94
Sheriff Dave is running a bit late today.
He'll be along when he finds the bullet from his shirt pocket that's gone missing.
http://drewfriedman.net/prints/barney-fife.html
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February 18th, 2011 at 6:10 am 95
@Devore: "They’re sort of complementary, no? "
The benchmark is a hedonic calculation based on various property traits, including age (I think). It will generally track the Teranet HPI, which looks at same property sales pairs. Price PSF also closely tracks same sales pairs, something Rich Toscano over at piggington.com figured out.
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February 18th, 2011 at 6:13 am 96
@fixie guy:
I also vote that we ban these two clowns, Lloyd "Fixie" Christmas and Harry "BPOM I have a realtor friend" Dunne. Nothing constructive, just bile.
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February 18th, 2011 at 6:25 am 97
@Troll:
Troll wants an exemption, troll wants people banned, troll demands that people immediately provide detailed reports with precise timelines and exact percentages for future price movements….
Fuck off you childish, worthless cheerleader.
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February 18th, 2011 at 6:49 am 98
A whiney guy named troll complaining others aren't constructive? Lol.
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February 18th, 2011 at 7:02 am 99
@ #92 that is true the developer slashed prices and gave partial refunds, or else most people would have walked from their deposits.
Take a look at vita and dolce buidlings, those were heavy spec buying buildings imagine competing with 37 other units in the same building, of course not are all the same but a few desperate sellers will set the benchmark prices.
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February 18th, 2011 at 7:10 am 100
@Anonymous:
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February 18th, 2011 at 7:13 am 101
@Best place on meth: Yeah, that's right dum dum, I DEMAND you provide something of value to the discussion….at least once in a while. DEAL WITH IT.
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February 18th, 2011 at 7:17 am 102
@fixie guy:
>>>Wait, you mean it’s two people?<<<
Yes, I'm pretty sure it's 2 people, but only Pope has access to IP's.
Dave calls us dummies and troll calls us dum-dums.
Same infantile crap, 2 different brats.
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February 18th, 2011 at 7:22 am 103
@Best place on meth: That's enough out of you, closet realtor lover.
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February 18th, 2011 at 7:32 am 104
Slow day for sales and listings in Vancouver.
For anyone still interested in the wild and crazy VW SHF's, the past 24 hours has seen 13 sales put on record.
4 over ask
2 at ask (within 0.5%)
7 below ask
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February 18th, 2011 at 7:45 am 105
@Troll:
Real prices at the market top in 1994 were about 2/3 of what they are today with higher real rents and similar real incomes. Can't draw a lesson from that?
DUH
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February 18th, 2011 at 7:49 am 106
@Best place on meth:
I would think "ask" means current list price. What would the numbers be with respect to the original list price? Not hard for the RE board to find out but a lot harder for the public.
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February 18th, 2011 at 7:57 am 107
@patriotz:
12 were at original price as they were pretty much all on the market less than 10 days.
The outlier was listed 149 days ago at 1.78, reduced to 1.69 then 1.63.
Sold for 1.60
1480 MATTHEWS AVE.
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February 18th, 2011 at 8:03 am 108
OV state of the art POS heating/cooling system….. i rent here the system has been down all winter, they finally came in replaced a pump now its way too hot in here even with the thermostat all the way down, not to mention my power bills are silly high and i don't leave the lights on or use much power. I have a construction background and all i know is that these were rushed for the Olympics and it shows in everyway inside and out, its brutal! The heating tech told me these sytems need to be serviced once a year, the costs to maintain these will be sickening. No way i would buy even at 50% off.
Happy Renter!
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February 18th, 2011 at 8:06 am 109
@Anonymous:
Only bears will listen to such fancy story from the moon;where is the unit tell me liar.
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February 18th, 2011 at 9:26 am 110
"I just had a look at a building I was interested in in Burnaby (4132 Halifax), #1102 sold for $417,000 Nov 2007 – #1402 is currently for sale for $439,000, #1902 & 2302 for $459,000. If I bought #1102 and tried to sell now, how would I do?"
I sold in December 2007 not far from Halifax in North Burnaby and I can tell you the prices in the same building are similar and even lower than at the time I sold.
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February 18th, 2011 at 9:50 am 111
Developer Denies Shady Hyping Project
http://www.cknw.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story….
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February 18th, 2011 at 9:54 am 112
Developer Denies Shady Hyping Project
http://www.cknw.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story….
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:02 am 113
New Listings 270
Price Changes 82
Sold Listings 116
12422
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:02 am 114
@Anonymous:
Developer denies shady hyping, then slips in a sales pitch.
"Simpson says there's huge appetite for condos in the Metrotown area, and more than 1000 buyers have already expressed interest in the 200 units."
I wonder if someone asking "so, uhh….how much are they?" counts as expressing interest.
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:09 am 115
@Anonymous: re Bosa presale interest.
Presales are popular because they are seen as a "call option" on real estate prices. If prices drop, simply walk away. If prices go up, you flip it. And, of course, prices never drop!
It's good to see the old marketing tricks, with Bosa, and the Village too, are alive and well. I think the developer is being honest that the lineup is not staged but there are all sorts of other tricks these guys pull:
1) Selling the prime units to "insiders"
2) Selling out before the first dozen people get in the door. Names go on a waiting list
3) People on the waiting list get calls a few days later as the units that were "sold" are back on the market, or are re-selling assignments at a markup.
4) Salesmen are "confidence men" — they will make it seem like they have an inside line on a prime unit, and you the potential buyer are their preferred customer. Often using some relationship, like you're both from the same city in China or whatever, is common to solidify the bond.
I know that racket is common in Toronto. Don't know too much about BC — I stay as far away from presales as possible — but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes on. When you hear press like 1000 interested parties for 200 units you know they have to figure out ways to maximize their profits.
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:13 am 116
@Troll:
This is exactly why only a 25% drop in Vancouver is highly unlikely. Buyers of real estate in Vancouver–the marginal buyer whose financial situation will determine the extent of the market decline–is extremely highly leveraged. Leverage is fun on the way up, but a real bitch on the way down. Just ask Lehman Brothers.
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:20 am 117
@curious lurker:
Sheriff Dave has been in transit most of the day, but I am back and ready for duty.
RE: Prices: It's easy to find anecdotes that support any case that you want. We can find examples of houses that have gone down in value over the last 3 to 4 years and others that have significantly appreciated. And that's why we look at averages and medians because those numbers don't lie. And the reality of those numbers is that prices have been relatively flat.
RE: Onni: If you don't like marketing, then don't bite the hook. I don't enjoy a clown in orange telling me to buy crappy food, so I don't buy it. To each their own.
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:28 am 118
@scullboy:
Maybe I was a little off-side, but that's just my style of humour.
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:34 am 119
@scullboy:
THAT'S WHAT HE SAID… Michael Scott
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:45 am 120
one stop shop for mortgage expertise http://www.mortgagedave.ca
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:46 am 121
February 2011 month-end projections
Days elapsed so far 14
Days remaining 6
5 Day Moving Average: Sales 170
5 Day Moving Average: Listings 294
SALES
Sales so far 2110
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1022
Projected month end total 3132 +/- 225
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 3999
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1764
Projected month end total 5763 +/- 122
Sell-list so far 52.8%
Projected month-end sell-list 54.4%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of February 18, 2011 12422
MoI at this sales pace 3.97
To get to 13K by the end of the month, we'll need just under +100 net a day over the last 6 days of the month.
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February 18th, 2011 at 11:15 am 122
@From another blog: A "broadening top" is ridiculous. It's more or less a straight rocket shot to the limits of affordability, followed by a panic. The realtors' claim that "everybody wants to live here" (meaning everyone wants to buy houses) was true. There is basically unlimited desire for real estate at any sticker price, the only issue is the monthly payments.
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February 18th, 2011 at 11:53 am 123
The week that was:
Listings – 1470
Sales – 852
Sell/List – 58%
Weeks left – 4
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February 18th, 2011 at 11:56 am 124
Net gain in listings – 418
Next inventory party – Feb 28
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:10 pm 125
I'm pretty sure Dave is getting voted down because his brown doily IP is TERRIBLE.
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February 18th, 2011 at 1:39 pm 126
Mortgage Fraud, why banks aren't prosecuted
Why Wall Street Is Not Being Prosecuted
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZjPCJfvV0M
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February 18th, 2011 at 3:52 pm 127
@jesse:
Here is the quote that stands out from the story.
"The incentive is that New Land claims to have connections with rich investors from China, and the goal is to drive up property prices and thereby sell at a higher price to the end buyer."
So the revenue model is to find someone who will pay a higher
price later on.
Why do people fall for this garbage? This is exactly what took down the US. Everyone assumes that property price only goes up.
Even if the property goes up 9%, doesn't that mean this company New Land is out-of-pocket 1% since they need to pay the investor 10%?
Unbelieveable.
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February 18th, 2011 at 6:51 pm 128
Ireland turns to bankruptcy tourism – Bankruptcy in Britain offers a way out for Irish entrepreneurs crushed by debt from heady property boom
Note how his price/rent and cash flow are much better than in Vancouver today. And he bought near the top in Ireland. How many Nialls are here? At least they won't have to leave the country to declare bankruptcy.
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February 18th, 2011 at 9:43 pm 129
A promient and prudent chinese newspaper Singdao said,OV are selling well to Chinese in mainland and expects it will be sold off to offshore,mainly Chinese in mainland, buyers in few wks.Bears open your bias eye and repent now;fact is as real as the rock mountain.Van RE doesn't care meager Anglo-white wage earners,it mainly rely on Chinese money alone.If it weren't Chinese goverment's generous help,we would definately end up like those criminal-minded Yanky crooks.Thanx China and the party;Beijing Model is number one.God bless China.
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:38 pm 130
#129 Extremely Arrogant,
Yes. Thank god for them for they shall be the greaterfools that get holding the bag when Vancouver's Real Estate crashes. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch and you along with them.
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February 18th, 2011 at 10:40 pm 131
Hitler listened to bull posters on Realestatetalks and lost everything
"I was suppose to make money!"
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February 18th, 2011 at 11:31 pm 132
Through my years of investing I've learned many things. For example: On this blog I see people here classifying themselves and one other as "bulls" or "bears". What I've found is that people will fixate on their view. They'll close their mind to other possibilities only to miss opportunities (both to buy and to sell).
If you're a "bull" you can poke the "bears" and not get out of the way of a correction just to prove you're "right" and vice versa.
I don't care about being a bull or bear, I just want to protect myself financially and make money. In order to do so I have to remain open-minded and listen to contrarian viewpoints that challenge my own opinions and analysis.
I really wish the childish banter would come to an end and a mutual respect would develop, regardless of where you stand on RE prices. We don't have to agree about anything except that there should be a level of respect afforded to one another.
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February 18th, 2011 at 11:45 pm 133
@Vansanity:
A bull is simply someone who thinks something is a good investment at the current market price and a bear is someone who thinks it is not.
One can be a bull or bear based on prejudice or rational analysis. I am bearish on Vancouver (and most big city Canadian RE) based on the latter.
I am not a "permabear", I have bought Vancouver RE in the past and although I don't aspire to own again in the city for lifestyle reasons, I would have no problem advocating buying again if the numbers were right.
I have heard no rational explanation of why Vancouver RE should be a good investment at current prices and I don't see why anyone holding such views deserves respect.
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:07 am 134
@patriotz:
"One can be a bull or bear based on prejudice or rational analysis. I am bearish on Vancouver (and most big city Canadian RE) based on the latter."
I think that is the difference, although some base their opinions on rational analysis only to form a prejudice later on. That is my concern, I've seen it happen many times on the stock market, which tends to catch close-minded folk with their pants down much quicker than real estate, of course. Regardless, a polarized viewpoint on any investment could cause one to lose money.
In regards to deserving respect, I disagree with you. That doesn't mean I don't respect you and your opinion.
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:10 am 135
@Vansanity: Don't fall into the trap thinking that since there are extreme viewpoints on both sides the truth must lie "somewhere" in the middle.
Objective evidence is biased towards the bear camp. Yes there is still a chance prices won't drop in nominal terms in the next 10 years but, based on the fullness of data and analysis I see, that would be a rare occurrence.
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:30 am 136
@patriotz:
Seriously? Not deserving of respect? Wow. That's a pretty extreme position. Replace what you said with non-Christian or non-Muslim and you will see how extreme your statement was.
I understand your position and I respect it. You have a rationale argument and can defend it. I believe I do as well. Do you really not understand my position? Can you not see the logic behind it?
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:37 am 137
@Vansanity:
I agree with your thoughts.
I don't consider myself as a bull or a bear. I just ride with whatever I think is going to happen. Many a bear has criticized me for changing my opinions or positions when fundamentals change. I take that as a compliment.
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:39 am 138
@Dave:
By equating the bulls with those holding religious beliefs you've just come out and said that the position of the bears is based on blind faith rather than rationality.
Thank you.
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:43 am 139
@Vansanity:
You're saying that it can be rational to be a bear at price X but a prejudice to be a bear at price X+10%? What sense does that make?
If someone is still a bear when and if prices come down 50%, by all means call that prejudice.
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:49 am 140
@patriotz:
LULZ
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:52 am 141
@patriotz, "… I don’t see why anyone holding such views deserves respect."
Somehow I can't believe that you meant this in a broad context. Perhaps you meant it in terms of "intellectual" or "academic" respect, or respect for ideas/arguments/rational thinking/rigor?
Surely you believe that all men (implying both genders) deserve respect at some fundamental level? I think at least one poster here is playing with the meaning of words and phrases here, and trying to stir up controversy. Correct me if I'm wrong about what you meant.
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:52 am 142
@Vansanity:
This does not make sense either, all investors must choose what to buy and what not to buy which means you have to be a bull or a bear for some assets.
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February 19th, 2011 at 1:03 am 143
@patriotz:
"I have heard no rational explanation of why Vancouver RE should be a good investment at current prices and I don’t see why anyone holding such views deserves respect."
We all hold wrong views. For example, I fully expected to see a real estate crash in 2008. Part of the reason that I was wrong was because of government intervention that I hadn't factored in, but another reason was that I had misunderstood the market. My theory was that, at the top of a bubble, when prices start to go down, there would be panic. But that was wrong. You too, must have held a wrong view at some point in your life.
That said, I agree that Vancouver RE is not a good investment at current prices and I think the bulls are wrong. So the bulls are people who, like me, are sometimes wrong in their understanding. I think it is reasonable if someone wants to say that, as we are all wrong at times, our positions are not deserving of respect. There is, however, another question of whether we, as people, are deserving of respect. It can be argued that no one is 'deserving' of respect, but rather respect is something that must be given voluntarily. So the question now becomes, is it to my advantage to respect people whose opinions are wrong. Arguments can be made on both sides, but I do notice that, when I argue with people who I do not respect, emotion takes the upper hand and the quality of my argument (and hence my thought) goes down.
Interestingly, I seem to notice that you actually treat everyone and all arguments with respect by providing clearly thought out counter arguments.
Perhaps when you spoke of respect, you were referring to the habit of entertaining wrong arguments as plausible simply because someone out there believes them (something we often see in journalism these days). If that is the case, I would agree with you. But I got the sense that the original poster meant, by respect, not launching attacks on the mental or sexual powers of other posters.
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February 19th, 2011 at 1:04 am 144
@jesse:
I hear you, I'm not suggesting that at all. My point was not to simply agree with a contrarian view or to find some sore of commonality to it, rather, to caution from avoiding opinions that differ from our own all together.
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February 19th, 2011 at 1:05 am 145
#128 @patriotz:
That story has to be one of the most depressing stories I've read for a long time. Ireland is well into their correction and people still don't get it.
At no point does this 31 year old man think he should shoulder any of the responsibility for the situation he is in. Sadly, I suspect there are many more people in the world who think the same way. It does not bode well for the future, even after any price corrections occur.
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February 19th, 2011 at 1:08 am 146
@Anonymous:
This is an economic forum and we are talking about views expressed on this forum, not anyone's religion, family life etc. It's certainly possible to be a decent human being and hold fallacious economic views, that could hardly be clearer from recent history.
But someone who is openly advocating that someone else buy Vancouver RE – for their own financial gain – in the face of all the evidence that has come to light is not only financially illiterate, but morally illiterate IMHO.
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February 19th, 2011 at 1:21 am 147
@Anne Ong:
The whole Irish nation is shouldering the responsibility for the situation. Or should I say except for the culprits at the top, most of whom are still living it up. Read "Ship of Fools".
Why should anyone expect him to shoulder more?
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February 19th, 2011 at 1:25 am 148
@patriotz, "… morally illiterate IMHO."
Thank you for your reply, and for articulating your views so thoughtfully. I particularly like your phrase "morally illiterate". I'll start using it from time to time in place of my usual phrase, which is "morally bankrupt".
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February 19th, 2011 at 1:50 am 149
@patriotz:
I'll try to clarify my point through the use of an example:
Last year I bought a stock expecting the price to go up (I was a bull). The share price did little in terms of going up or down over the next while however. What was interesting to me, upon some self-reflection, is I found myself seeking out other's opinions so long as they were like-minded. To put it another way – I was such a bull that I dismissed any bear's opinion/analysis whatsoever.
Long story short on that particular stock I lost some money and learned a lesson. From that point on I've tried hard to make sure that I don't simply dismiss a contrarian opinion all together.
In terms of being a bull or a bear, I know what you are saying. My This is a precautionary tale not to become so fixated on being a bull or a bear that you fail to challenge it.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:07 am 150
@132 Vansanity Says: " For example: On this blog I see people here classifying themselves and one other as “bulls” or “bears”. What I’ve found is that people will fixate on their view."
Bullshit. The extreme labeling was cultivated by the market shills at RET over years. No amount of objecting that it's a bearish position on Vancouver today meant anything, you became a 'permabear', never to buy on principle. It's marketing 101, label your opponent in the simplest possible term and keep hammering the message. Fortunately they've now moved on to new labels which, suggesting mental issues on the part of the utterer, does the industry no favours.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:11 am 151
@Vansanity:
The reason why I'm so "fixated" on being bearish on Vancouver RE is that never before in economic history has there been so much evidence to support a bearish position in any asset.
It's almost the equivalent of the old fable of having a copy of next year's WSJ.
What you're asking is, as Krugman put it, to consider that "opinions differ on the shape of the Earth". Some opinions simply are not worth considering.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:17 am 152
I for the most part agree with this when we are talking about the regular bulls who post on VCI. I fully believe they know a significant downturn is likely to happen but are here to spin their own interests in real estate.
The vast majority of the BC population doesn't understand this because they have not had the access to good information, or for the most part only heard real estate industry and media spin. I will give them respect, but not the cheer leaders who show up here making the silliest arguments that are barely worth acknowledging. Most of them are here to troll, stir up racism or to just insult people.
The regular bulls are fully aware we are in a bubble but likely their income or investments depend on keeping it going. They could care less about all the people that will be financially ruined. Sorry I can't give them respect.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:26 am 153
@Vansanity:
There are big differences to RE and stocks. We have a lot more information about real estate over a specific stock. The earnings (rent) from real estate is very predictable. Rents just don't change that much. Company (stock) earnings can go from boom to bust or visa versa in weeks.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:33 am 154
@fixie guy:
You're making an assumption which is almost proving my previous point.
I'm not making a bull case here. I'm a renter. My views are in line with the majority of those on this blog.
My point was a simple one and I've quickly reached my point of exhaustion in attempting to express it. I'll go back to lurking in the shadows, as it were.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:36 am 155
@Vansanity:
There are no bulls when it comes to Vancouver real estate, only cheerleaders.
They're not bulls because they're not buying, they've already bought at much lower prices and want everyone else to buy now so their asset can continue to inflate. They don't care how many people screw themselves over for a lifetime, it's all about talking up prices and scaring people into the market.
The other type of cheerleader, the far worse kind is the industry cheerleader who just wants to see sales volume continue so they can skim off their cut. They lie and cheat as much as necessary to keep sales moving. These are the agents, brokers, marketers, developers and the media they all tie into.
Neither of these two groups has ever produced a reasonable argument, only nonsensical slogans.
Real estate cheerleaders deserve the same amount of respect as pimps, drug dealers and BC premiers. Zero.
If you want to give them respect that's your perogative but don't ever tell me that I need to respect these lowlifes, it ain't gonna happen.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:38 am 156
patriotz says: I have heard no rational explanation of why Vancouver RE should be a good investment at current prices and I don’t see why anyone holding such views deserves respect.
you've said the same thing year in and year out on these blogs but every year people have made money on vancouver real estate. you can never admit when you're wrong which is why you don't get much respect, even on this blog.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:41 am 157
@154 Vansanity Says: "You’re making an assumption which is almost proving my previous point."
Which would be?
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:42 am 158
patriotz says: The reason why I’m so “fixated” on being bearish on Vancouver RE is that never before in economic history has there been so much evidence to support a bearish position in any asset.
really? vancouver real estate yields are currently comparable to bond yields, usually the yield would be lower.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:45 am 159
@Best place on meth:
"Real estate cheerleaders deserve the same amount of respect as pimps, drug dealers and BC premiers. Zero."
Best Place, I am usually in agreement with you, but this time I'm not.
To put Real estate cheerleaders in the same group as pimps is really offensive to pimps.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:45 am 160
renting says: I for the most part agree with this when we are talking about the regular bulls who post on VCI. I fully believe they know a significant downturn is likely to happen but are here to spin their own interests in real estate.
yeah maybe, but where were you in 2008 when the bear arguments were their strongest. looks like you were missing in action, i guess you read garths' book last year.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:48 am 161
#156 stagnate Says: "… but every year people have made money on vancouver real estate. …"
Or, expanding, people year after year made money on the real price appreciation of Vancouver real estate. Can you see the flaw in that reasoning?
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:57 am 162
@stagnate:
"Usually" the yield on RE is lower than on bonds? On what planet?
And Vancouver RE yields net of expenses are not even close to 30 year Canada yields today – which are currently 3.85%. You do understand why you have to compare with long yields?
Do try to dress up your attacks a bit better.
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:08 am 163
patriotz says: And Vancouver RE yields net of expenses are not even close to 30 year Canada yields today – which are currently 3.85%. You do understand why you have to compare with long yields?
how did the yields look back in 1981? hmm interesting.
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:18 am 164
Can somebody please explain what is going on at the O.V.? Looked like mayhem at the opening, not to be racist but mostly Chinese. Do these people know something I don't or are they just rich fools?
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:22 am 165
@Vansanity: "To put it another way – I was such a bull that I dismissed any bear’s opinion/analysis whatsoever"
This is called the "confirmation bias". We'd be a ship of fools to think it doesn't exist whether bull or bear.
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:25 am 166
@kaiser solce:
Neither I'll bet, just fools who think they can get rich.
It would be interesting if either the sellers or someone in the media (you can look at the titles for a nominal fee) would disclose the % of offshore buyers. But I have a feeling that's not going to happen.
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:30 am 167
@kaiser solce: Could the changes to mortgage rules have happened at a better time for the COV? Just think of the CMHC mortgages as an informal transfer payment to help bail-out the Owelypic Village.
On another note, back in China:
http://www.news1130.com/business/article/185800–…
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:35 am 168
@stagnate:
Vancouver real estate is over price,period. Patriotz deserves no respect because he is an idiot.
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:42 am 169
@CRASH JPMorgan-Chase – Buy Silver:
YOu make absolutely no sense. Keep your opinion to yourself you idiot. You deserve no respect. Did you even went to school?
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:46 am 170
@stagnate:
As usual the bull argument is some type of insult.
In 2008 I was just as bearish as now.
Being bearish means you think real estate is a poor investment/value when considering the risks and other things you can do with your money. It does not mean RE must correct immediately for you to be right.
In 2008 real estate was a poor investment factoring in the risks. Even though it has gone up since, almost every other investment class has gone up much more. Commodities, gold, stock indexes or bond indexes have all done much better since 2008 with lower risk with a lot less work to invest in.
I think you can make the argument those who invested in real estate got it wrong because there was so many better lower risk investments. But that is all history now. What we are really talking about is what will happen going forward. The bear argument is always based on the past.
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:57 am 171
@Vansanity: While I don't entirely agree with Patriotz that some opinions are simply flat out not worth considering at all, because even the most loony of them can bring new light to bear on a situation, or make you think of something you haven't thought of before. But extreme opinions that are unsupportable, or contradict decades and centuries of economic patterns and economic facts, require extraordinary proof. It is the incessant repetition and assertion of these opinions that tiring and wearing. "That's confidential", "trust me" and "it's different here" simply don't cut it.
If you're just dropping in here for the first time, our treatment of Dave et al must seem rather crude and dismissive. That is not because we're perma-bears and hate contrary views (wait, RE bullishness is contrary??). It's the assertion of facts not proven, theories counter to basic economics and accounting, and appeals to authority that's bringing on the dismissive stance.
@stagnate:
You're just talking market timing. First of all, 2008, wasn't that long ago. No one, even the most bullish of bulls were predicting massive government intervention to sustain the housing market. They all had their tails between their legs. You just got lucky. You can keep saying that prices were up last month, so they will be up next month, and you will be right, until you're not, and you won't see it coming. That's the lemming approach to investing.
As for people making money, I don't know how much money a typical buyer of the last 3-4 years has made in this market (assuming of course they sold recently, and aren't planning on buying again or a while), after interest, expenses, and realtor fees. I'm sure SOME have. Obviously if you bought 10 years ago, it's not hard to make money, although you will find a large number of people would not be very far ahead if they were to sell today, after having used their house as an ATM. If you're simply trading one house for another, it just doesn't matter how much your house has gone up, only how much it has gone down.
With the market fundamentals, economy, demographics, fiscal and monetary situation, and housing elsewhere in the world being the way it is, real estate in Vancouver seems like a very questionable investment at this time. I'm sure if you hold it long enough you will make money. In real terms. Eventually. In the meantime, that's more risk than I am willing to take on, there are much safer places to put my money to work today.
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February 19th, 2011 at 4:27 am 172
Chinese are coming,
http://roseman.sovereignsociety.com/2011/02/10/ch…
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February 19th, 2011 at 4:28 am 173
@VHB:
I know that there are lot of places on the internet to discuss housing.
However, in order to provide non-biased talks on this site, we must ensure opposing views are not censored.
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February 19th, 2011 at 4:38 am 174
@Alum:
I agree, the Pope needs to reign in this extremist element. First they came for the [fill in the blank] and I stayed silent. And then they came for me.
They may take our posts, but they will never take our freedom!
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February 19th, 2011 at 4:51 am 175
#174 Dave Says: "…the Pope needs to reign in this extremist element." #173 Alum Says:"… we must ensure opposing views are not censored."
First, they're filtered, not censored. Anyone who wants their fill of your empty tripe can click "UNFILTERED VCI comment stream available here" on the left.
Second, Pope was forced to implement voting because your ilk was spamming the site with hundreds of unrelated posts per topic to the point it became unreadable.
You two (?) really are repugnant. 'Win at any cost, integrity be damned.' 'Focus discussion on real estate talkers instead of real estate, because we have no rational argument.' You want this forum wide open again precisely so you can spam the shit out of it as in the past and censor a contrarian voice to your bullshit media marketing. Meth has it right, fuck off and get a social conscience you parasite.
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February 19th, 2011 at 5:13 am 176
why there is so much tension on this blog? why everybody takes the post so personally?
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February 19th, 2011 at 5:17 am 177
Posts are voted on for quality.
VCI is edited by the readers. When you are voted down it is because readers feel your post is of poor quality or not relevant. When you are voted up the readers agree it is relevant and makes a good point. I think it is a great system.
Maybe someone should start their own blog with different rules. Oh ya that was done and it failed miserably.
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February 19th, 2011 at 5:25 am 178
Interesting video:
Vancouver, Richmond Burnaby up. Rest of Metro down, down, down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3qK1AI5bmo
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February 19th, 2011 at 5:25 am 179
@Devore:
A large number of people would not be very far ahead if they were to sell today, period, because that in itself would bring on the bust.
That's something the cheerleaders always forget or ignore – only a few can sell at or near the top of any bubble.
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February 19th, 2011 at 5:28 am 180
Renting Says: "Posts are voted on for quality."
You mean on the quality of the faul language that some of the bears write in every other post? Shame on those parents that did not properly educate on how to have civil conversation.
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February 19th, 2011 at 6:17 am 181
@Renting:
"Posts are voted on for quality."
No, posts are voted on largely on an agree/disagree basis, and on the basis of whether the reader sees the poster as sharing their beliefs.
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February 19th, 2011 at 6:24 am 182
Real Estate Pimps will say anything to make a “it’s different here” especially the Asian thingy.
>>>>>>>>>But it’s not different here is it Pimp Dave?<<<<<<<<<
Is Seattle a Haven for Asian Americans?
“the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett area is only 11th largest in the size of its Asian American population (285,000, or about 11.4% of the area's 2.5 million), but it claims one of the oldest and richest slices of Asian American history”
http://www.goldsea.com/Air/Issues/Seattle/seattle…
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February 19th, 2011 at 6:30 am 183
Hey Pimp Dave, Seattle has Asians, pimping economists, (just like Tsur, Muir and Pastrick), low interest rates, ocean, mountains, and lots and lots of rain, but it's going bust, and talk about land constraints!
"Two local economists were quoted all but guaranteeing that Seattle was immune “if history is any indication.” A market-risk index from PMI Mortgage Insurance gave the odds of Seattle prices dropping at a negligible 11 percent.
These days, the mood here is chastened when not downright fatalistic. If a recovery depends on a belief in better times, that seems a long way off."
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/seat…
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February 19th, 2011 at 7:00 am 184
@Dave:
Drama queen. How bout some more martyr sauce….
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February 19th, 2011 at 7:58 am 185
this blog has too much tension because all the bears have missed the market big time, they take it on one anothers.
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February 19th, 2011 at 7:59 am 186
The crybabies who don't like the voting system or who are offended by foul language are welcome to fuck off and go elsewhere or start their own blog with their own rules.
Once again, fuck off.
You're making me sick.
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February 19th, 2011 at 8:06 am 187
January MOI calculations for each of BCREA's regions. As before, Vancouver is the only region in balanced territory (MOI 6.1), while the outlying areas are fittingly all in bear territory.
Listings and sales data are from BCREA's monthly report.
BC Northern
Listings 1,982
Sales 178
MOI 11.1
Chilliwack
Listings 1,309
Sales 111
MOI 11.8
Fraser Valley
Listings 6,387
Sales 773
MOI 8.3
Greater Vancouver
Listings 11,256
Sales 1,855
MOI 6.1
Kamloops
Listings 1,519
Sales 93
MOI 16.3
Kootenay
Listings 2,062
Sales 102
MOI 20.2
Okanagan Mainline
Listings 5,021
Sales 276
MOI 18.2
Powell River
Listings 193
Sales 18
MOI 10.7
South Okanagan
Listings 1,865
Sales 83
MOI 22.4
Vancouver Island
Listings 4,583
Sales 329
MOI 13.9
Victoria
Listings 2,569
Sales 319
MOI 8.1
Total
Listings 38,746
Sales 4,137
MOI 9.4
Not too surprisingly, the MOI leader is the South Okanagan – BC's vacation home hotspot. When you can barely pay your mortgage on your house in PoCo, the summer home by the lake is the first thing to go.
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February 19th, 2011 at 8:10 am 188
Best place on meth Says: "Once again, fuck off."
Do you talk to your Mom like that when she does not give you toys?
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February 19th, 2011 at 8:15 am 189
"this blog has too much tension because all the bears have missed the market big time, they take it on one anothers."
great point Anon. bears have a talent to miss the bull ride. that is why there are on the sideline of PM. they will keep screaming bubble until silver reach $250. well they will keep living from paycheque to paycheque in moldy basements.
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February 19th, 2011 at 8:19 am 190
@Dave: @Dave:
Dave say:
"@Alum:
I agree, the Pope needs to reign in this extremist element. First they came for the [fill in the blank] and I stayed silent. And then they came for me.
They may take our posts, but they will never take our freedom!"
My understanding is instead of open discussion here, site operators are trying to cool of cost of housing by deleting opposition comments.
such a childish thinking !
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February 19th, 2011 at 8:19 am 191
Bear posters: if your intent is to undermine the forum, keep feeding the trolls, otherwise take it elsewhere.
Concentrate on the important stuff, like that sky high MOI outside of Vancouver or the upcoming 13k inventory parties!
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February 19th, 2011 at 8:23 am 192
@fixie guy:
Unfiltered comments section is very hard to read. Has anyone tried it?
It is very disorganized and only a few comments are shown. The rest of comments are DELETED forever.
Nice job doing that ! and GOOD LUCK with hopes of another recession.
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February 19th, 2011 at 8:29 am 193
@stagnate: Bears were not "wrong" about the Okanagan. I suggest you take a trip up there to whistle past the graveyard.
Vancouver is different
Vancouver is different
Vancouver is different
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February 19th, 2011 at 8:31 am 194
Post on News 1130:
Sovereign' sales prove condos are still hot
Tower at Willingdon and Kingsway in Burnaby could sell out on first day.
Feel free to leave a comment, if it clears the "moderator".
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/186438…
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February 19th, 2011 at 9:33 am 195
@southseacompany:
"New" condos are still hot.
Old condos are not.
In a couple of years these hot new condos will be cast aside like all that came before them.
And they will cry.
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February 19th, 2011 at 10:04 am 196
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/18/ir…
The bankrupt rich Asians will simply go back to China…
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February 19th, 2011 at 10:33 am 197
Anyone….bear or bull….care to comment?
http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2011/02/19…
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February 19th, 2011 at 11:52 am 198
@BPOM, "The crybabies who … are offended by foul language are welcome to fuck off … Once again, fuck off. You’re making me sick."
Hope it's fatal.
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February 19th, 2011 at 12:19 pm 199
jesse says: Stagnate Bears were not “wrong” about the Okanagan
i haven't commented for years about the okanagan, but i have noted in the past that demand is more elastic in the okanagan than the lower mainland. i have also noted that demand here competes to a degree with demand in the okanagan. dropping prices in the okanagan will draw some demand away from the lower mainland. i do agree with you that what is happening there does have some relevance here.
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February 19th, 2011 at 1:43 pm 200
@stagnate:
I disagree. I go between the two cities quite often and don't see any relationship between them. While the Vancouver market recovered after a slump a few years ago, the Okanagan market is still down in the dumps. I rarely even hear about people moving to Vancouver from Kelowna, or vice versa. More often I hear of people moving between Alberta and Kelowna. It's almost like they're two different planets. While the Vancouverites are still RAH RAH RAH about real estate, whenever I go to Kelowna everyone just kind of sighs and looks a bit gloomy. Not too gloomy, mind you, prices are still higher than what they were in 2004 and prior, but still nothing like the highs achieved in spring/summer 2008. And no one expects the market to get back to previous highs, either. Why would it, the city's reported there is no net population growth. People have slowly figured out that not everyone wants to live there.
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February 19th, 2011 at 1:51 pm 201
@stagnate: "demand is more elastic in the okanagan than the lower mainland"
What does demand elasticity have to do with future prices? In the end, probably not much.
Vancouver is different…
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:05 pm 202
priced out for now says: I go between the two cities quite often and don’t see any relationship between them.
i primarily agree, not much of a relationship but i think the okanagan could siphon off a bit of demand from the eastern suburbs (ie maple ridge/langley). the okanagan doesn't seem to have much (if any) appeal to the ethnics though.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:22 pm 203
@stagnate: "the okanagan doesn’t seem to have much (if any) appeal to the ethnics though"
We don't have to go as far as Kelowna to see higher MOI. If prices in Maple Ridge dropped by 40% I am quite certain that will have significant effects on the entire region, including the "bastions of unspeakable glorious wealth".
The argument that rich Asians are driving the market, to be successful, would require building a great wall down Main St. and a steel reinforced berm surrounding Richmond, and only looking at prices in those areas. It would have to ignore the entire rest of the region where direct foreign capital injections plays a relatively minor role.
In all previous episodes of house price weakness, the province's major pop. centres have been surprisingly correlated, with some delays in higher priced locales. This was exactly the experience in markets south of the line, where the creep spread from the outskirts and eventually into the hoity-toity areas. I don't know for sure how "immune" parts of Vancouver will be but I don't see any area being unaffected. There are just too many plebs.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:38 pm 204
i tend to agree with what you're saying jesse. rich asians and weakness in the kelowna market are factors (bullish or bearish) in the lower mainland market, but relatively modest factors (overall) at this point.
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February 19th, 2011 at 2:49 pm 205
@stagnate: "but relatively modest factors (overall) at this point"
There's not much argument from me on that. We shall converse in 2013 and see how things have changed.
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February 19th, 2011 at 3:29 pm 206
@southseacompany:
It's easy to sell out a development. Count 75 people in line,
then tell staff to release only 50 units for Phase I.
How many of those contracts will pass the 7 day rescinding period?
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February 19th, 2011 at 4:02 pm 207
jesse says: We shall converse in 2013 and see how things have changed.
no need, as change occurs i will probably be here to advise you. no need to try to look back or figure anything out after the fact. if you weren't trying to be confrontational let me apologize now.
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February 19th, 2011 at 4:04 pm 208
@kansai92
Yes I know. I was drawing attention to the fake line up, fake hype. If you've ever seen the great CBC doc called Condo Hype, there are former marketers who admitted that, often, the majority of buyers are arranged before the sales centre even opens. The opening is usually just for hype.
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February 19th, 2011 at 6:55 pm 209
Unreal – already a flipping ad for the Soverign. This is going to end well.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/bnc/apa/2224133…
Any body who is interested in an assignment please contact me.
I have 3 units ready for signing
2 one bedrooms
1 studio
Adding $25k assignment to original pre open day price. (first 80 units)
If you are interested – you need to be quick cause these will be signed over on monday or tuesday (no assignment fees if done in the next few days)
SOLD OUT BUILDING ( in one day)
Basa http://www.bosaproperties.com/sovereign/
Email with phone number and cash needs to be ready.
Thanks
Location: Burnaby
it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
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February 19th, 2011 at 9:57 pm 210
The greatest fool is the one who pays HST for a cum-stained condo.
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February 19th, 2011 at 10:49 pm 211
@Best place on meth:
Thanks I shared on FB
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February 20th, 2011 at 12:37 am 212
@Supersogs:
They guy is trying to flip 3 condos in 3 days for a $75K total profit?
What a douche, I hope he gets stuck with them.
We'll see in 25 days where this market really stands.
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February 20th, 2011 at 12:51 am 213
@Best place on meth: In a couple of years these hot new condos will be cast aside like all that came before them.
>And they will cry.
No doubt.
Condos are a fully describable good that is constantly in production, which makes them more like cars than houses. Who would expect someone to buy their used Corolla for as much or more than they can go down the road and get a new one? The logic escapes me. (Unless the seller has seriously juiced the Corolla and/or the condo.)
Buying into a condo to live involves looking over the books to check the dates of major capital work and evaluating if there is projected to be enough $ for the next capital outlay, reading the board's bios, looking at the board's tenure, and talking to current residents. Buying on a presale is for flippers.
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February 20th, 2011 at 1:12 am 214
@Best place on meth:
He's already stuck with them. Completion date is 2014. Nobody who buys his assignments are going to be around to foot the bill when they see places selling at half the price. When they fail to pick up the bill Bosa will go after the one they wrote the contract with, not the ones he thought he passed the buck on to.
Same thing happened in 2008, in one case the assignment had passed through four other owners before bouncing back to the original sucker.
$25,000 per unit is not worth the risk he is taking.
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February 20th, 2011 at 1:59 am 215
@AG Sage: "Buying on a presale is for flippers"
That's a great point. Strata of presales are entirely unknown: you could end up with a dysfunctional council. At least with an already-built complex you can ask around and check the minutes. Not to mention the risks of deficiencies if the building isn't constructed properly.
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February 20th, 2011 at 2:14 am 216
@Best place on meth:
He is smart if he can get someone to pay him 25k more before the cooling off period. If not he can always cancel the contract and get back his 1000 dollars. Theres no risk for him.
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February 20th, 2011 at 2:33 am 217
@Best place on meth: "They guy is trying to flip 3 condos in 3 days for a $75K total profit? What a douche, I hope he gets stuck with them"
Nah I hope he gets his money. Or not. Heck I don't care. The faster guys like this destroy the balance sheets of the suckers the faster this thing will end.
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February 20th, 2011 at 3:21 am 218
@kansai92:
I hope someone calls him out, he has no intention of completing on the 3 units. It's like a free lotto ticket, he has one week to find a greater fool or walk away. He'd need to come up with $1million in financing 3 years from now (or get sued) if he doesn't back out.
Anyone who knows the first thing about negotiating would have all the say in this deal, 25k extra I don't think so the seller has no leverage. Maybe $200 would be fair since I didn't have to stand in line for 3 days to get one, take it or leave it.
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February 20th, 2011 at 3:30 am 219
Speaking of leverage I've noticed some of the homes in my neighborhood getting relisted at higher asking prices after not selling all fall/winter. I think advice that realtors are giving sellers is to list high and try to hold the March 18th deadline over would be buyers. We've all seen the Onni email that was circulating such nonsense.
Though I can't see the urgency that going from 30-35 years brings, I wonder if speculators have their last change to get in with a HELOC on an existing property since the CMHC will no longer insure them. For example if I own a home with 20% equity built up I'd qualify to use that equity as a downpayment to buy another house until March 18th. After which the bank would need to approve of such a loan without CMHC to back it… going to guess there is a snowball's chance in hell. So imagine this concept, I'd actually have to have the cash in my hand for a down payment.
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February 20th, 2011 at 5:07 am 220
@kansai92:
>>>If not he can always cancel the contract and get back his 1000 dollars. Theres no risk for him.<<<
Wait a minute. They only had to pony up $1000 AND they can back out?
So the complex didn't sell out after all.
These weren't sales, they were reservations. What a lie.
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February 20th, 2011 at 5:55 am 221
Condo pre-sales, hype, and how it's all done.
CBC Marketplace show from 2008.
About 1/2 hour long, but, hey, Wendy Mesley is hot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl6xs4e7mX0
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February 20th, 2011 at 6:49 am 222
Anyone know how many Olympic village condos have sold?
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February 20th, 2011 at 7:10 am 223
@paulb.:
Hey Paul,
"We will sell 60 in 60 days" – Rennie
http://www.theprovince.com/business/will+sell+day…
So I'd guess he's half way there by now with a bunch of offers still awaiting paperwork/financing.
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February 20th, 2011 at 7:17 am 224
@paulb.: "Anyone know how many Olympic village condos have sold?"
I don't know but apparently it's pretty busy down there…
Confusing, given how much stock is on the market right now. You figure if these units sell out that's a lot of robbed sales from everyone else…
I'm bearish on real estate but also cognizant that Vancouverites need the cash from selling this development. If Rennie pulls this off, he and his team deserve a hat tip for doing their assigned jobs well.
For the buyers: I wish you good luck. You're going to need it!
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February 20th, 2011 at 7:21 am 225
@jesse: I too hope they all sell in bidding wars for $500k over asking.
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February 20th, 2011 at 7:22 am 226
@Devore: Where are the wealthy Asians when you need them?
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February 20th, 2011 at 7:54 am 227
Good news ,From Ming Pao News ,for all Burnaby home or apt owners;wealthy Chinese are switching their focus form westside to burnaby SFH and apt.Soon Burnaby properties will double in less than two yrs.All pre-sale projects will be gulped up by Chinese investors within a day.Bears repent and join us or u be priced out to Mars;it is time to throw up the towel now,we will forgive u.
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February 20th, 2011 at 8:15 am 228
The surge in sales attributable to Chinese buyers in VW and Richmond will soon end for the year thanks to the passing of the new year holiday. Those new year sales obviously take several weeks to close and become stats. The regular run of the mill mainlanders will trickle through the balance of the year. I can tell you that spec builders in VW will be glad when it ends as the can't compete with the stupid money from the mainland for tear downs. The VW trend will not continue in the absence of the frenzied new years junket buyers.
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February 20th, 2011 at 8:28 am 229
CCPA: THE RISE OF CANADA’S
RICHEST 1%
Rising income inequality has taken place alongside high house price appreciation in affluent neighbourhoods. M- did a comparison 4 years ago between Van West and Richmond showing how VW outpaced inflation where Richmond merely tracked it:
House Prices Always Rise (over the long term)
It could very well be that the marked disconnect we have observed in Van West is part of a general trend towards higher income disparity. Does it justify high house prices region-wide? Nope. Does it justify some of the high house prices in certain locations? Possibly…
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February 20th, 2011 at 8:37 am 230
@jesse:
Prices cannot stay out of proportion to rents regardless of income trends. The landlord renting at less then 1/2 ownership costs does not lose less money simply because the income of the neighbourhood's homeowners is rising.
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February 20th, 2011 at 8:41 am 231
@Devore:
They should have added a helicopter pad to the OV before the 3rd release. I guess Rennie didn't watch the "news" that day.
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February 20th, 2011 at 8:41 am 232
@Stanislav: What kind of people go on an overseas house buying spree just because of time of year? Maybe it's got something to do with the newly imposed limits on lending and speculative purchases in China and HK? The Chinese who benefited from the unprecedented inflationary boom there are desperately trying to stuff their money anywhere but a bank or cash. This too will pass.
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February 20th, 2011 at 8:42 am 233
@Devore:
Don't worry they are waiting Money secretly channelled under the table;when the fund has arrived,it will crushed bears' nuts and smeared on the ground.
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February 20th, 2011 at 8:48 am 234
@jesse:
"For the buyers: I wish you good luck. You’re going to need it!"
Sorry no can do, curse already in motion, bad luck for 44 years.
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February 20th, 2011 at 9:14 am 235
The secret to west side demand revealed.
http://www.mls.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId…
It's all about the tree.
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February 20th, 2011 at 9:21 am 236
Follow up re Burnaby Sovereign:
1."sold out" (…really?)
2. craigslist flips (c/o VCI)
3. Follow up breathless infomercial from Global TV (c/o Greenhorn).
Includes great quotes:
"We are still remembering the two years ago, the economic crisis.. you know.. people don't have a lot of confidence.. those monetary products… but, as a real estate, you're buying something" – Sunny Lee, Royal Pacific Realty
"And a quick footnote to the story, if you were interested in buying a condo at The Sovereign… it is now Sold Out." – Announcer (with, arguably, 'told-you-so' delivery)
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Rm
(scroll down for updates)
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February 20th, 2011 at 9:25 am 237
The Sunny Lee "real estate, you’re buying something" quote urges us to retort…"Yeah, a toothbrush for a thousand bucks".
[paraphrasing older VHB example]
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February 20th, 2011 at 9:40 am 238
@Best place on meth:
Don't see anything – no photos in the listing… removed?
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February 20th, 2011 at 9:51 am 239
@specuskeptic:
Brand new listing, no photos yet. You can't expect realtors to be able to snap 4 pics and upload them in the space of 24 hours. That's hard work, and complicated.
No, it's all the the description – you just have to imagine the tree in all its leafy glory.
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February 20th, 2011 at 9:53 am 240
@patriotz: "Prices cannot stay out of proportion to rents regardless of income trends"
This point is valid however, based on some neighbourhoods I'm familiar with (some in Vancouver some in Toronto), there has been a marked change in the income levels of marginal buyers in the past 20 years. Even though rents in those areas for low quality housing remains low, the marginal owner-occupier is of a higher income bracket than the seller.
You may be right the whole effect could be illusory.
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February 20th, 2011 at 10:32 am 241
@Best place on meth:
ohh. Ma husba buy tree…
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February 20th, 2011 at 10:53 am 242
I'm a little confused by this video starring Mike Stewart, Realtor and Jessi Johnson, AM 730 official mortgage expert.
Normally I would find myself enamored by such star power, gulp down everything they say as gods word, and then beg for more – but I found something very odd about one statement in particular.
How much did he say the average person makes in Vancouver?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxYMwSHBLRg
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February 20th, 2011 at 11:05 am 243
Here's CREA chief economist Gregory Klump with a recap of January's real estate market.
I'm not sure why he's making that face, whether it's gas, difficulty seeing the monitor, or maybe a pantsless camera operator but the segment is highly insightful.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZshK-xkq3yU
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February 20th, 2011 at 11:55 am 244
$4300 a month for a reno'd place on the Westside.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2224831…
Any idea what this place would sell for?
Can you see a disconnect between price vs rent?
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February 20th, 2011 at 12:04 pm 245
this weekend sold out just ticked some more out of the bears.
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February 20th, 2011 at 12:08 pm 246
Ian Watt says "a lot of people don't trust realtors, and there are a lot of reasons why".
I just gained some respect for Mr. Watt.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1Y1w7awKSU&fe…
It's also the first time I've heard the word "suckholed" used since the 90's.
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February 20th, 2011 at 12:39 pm 247
@McLovin: They would prefer a long-term lease. $4300/month. That's $750,000 mortgage at 5.5%. Assessed at $1.2MM. This is not Shauuuughnessey. It's Kerrisdale. It's also a junkbox. Rent's about right. If that place was sold it would be ripped apart for Rish Asians. Don't know how easy it will be to find renters for $4300/month.
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February 20th, 2011 at 12:55 pm 248
Assessed at $1.2MM.
Its a 6900 sq ft lot. There is no way this is selling for anything close to $1.2 Mil even with it being on Granville. Shit box maybe but they are putting in a new kitchen, washrooms, windows. That type of reno is $250K easy. I bit this place would see in a bidding war at $2.5mil.
This is another example of a Vancouver house being rented for well less than 1/2 the cost of owning.
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February 20th, 2011 at 2:01 pm 249
@patriotz 230
Prices can stay out of proportion to rents as long as the prices do stay up and increase every year due to whatever (rich Asians ?) besides rental income. Obviously rental income is not what is used to determine Vancouver RE prices presently. If the landlords equity on paper keeps increasing, he feels richer and will tolerate low returns compared to ownership cost. This is what been happening in Vancouver. Landlords buy Vancouver RE not for rent income but capital appreciation. This will go on as long as buyers keep buying at higher prices expecting higher prices and nobody on this blog can say if it will ever end
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February 20th, 2011 at 2:20 pm 250
@McLovin:
The place would sell for 2.5 to 3.0M depending on street and renos. A mortgage on 2.5M with 5% down would be $11,250 at todays rates (soon to be higher). Property tax, insurance and very basic maintenance add another $1000 per month. Opportunity cost on the DP at $700 per month.
Roughly you can rent the place for 1/3 of ownership if they get full rent and the place is only worth 2.5M. If the place is worth more than 2.5M and you could negotiate the rent down by at least 10% your rent may only be 1/4 of ownership costs. The yield would be under 1.5%. The place has to appreciate at 2% per year with 100% occupancy and no major maintenance issues just to get the same return as a 5 year GIC of 3.5%.
Where can I buy one of these?
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February 20th, 2011 at 2:27 pm 251
@Kanada:
"Landlords buy Vancouver RE not for rent income but capital appreciation"
Speculation, by definition.
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February 20th, 2011 at 2:34 pm 252
@McLovin: I think that's the place a friend of mine studying English stayed at for 4 months a few years ago. One of the owners had some mental problems. Don't know if it's the same owners who are renting, or if the woman is involved but I'd stay away from that place. It's haunted.
And no I'm not making this up.
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February 20th, 2011 at 2:40 pm 253
#249 Kanada Says: "This will go on as long as buyers keep buying at higher prices expecting higher prices and nobody on this blog can say if it will ever end"
Ten minutes with Excel will prove that wrong, but thanks for illustrating clearly and honestly the magicthink driving the markets.
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February 20th, 2011 at 3:18 pm 254
Sold out means nothing.
When the BC Lions sell out at 33,000 or whatever the hell
the magic number is, guess what, it's not sold out.
They could easily open up the upper levels and add another
30,000 seats.
Now we know that Sovereign is NOT sold out.
There will be a Phase TWO, I guarantee it.
Don't even try to pretend that it's any near sold out.
At least 20 to 30% of those contracts will be cancelled
after the 7-day cooling off period due to cold feet or
specuvestors who can't get do the flip on Craigslist.
The remainder are probably naive suckers pulled in by
pretentious realtors and marketers.
This is no different than Ticketmaster presales for concert
tickets. Some people get a presale code earlier than others.
For that presale, a particular number of tickets is set aside.
You see it all the time. Some dumbass tries to flip Katy Perry
tickets after the first presale. I log in at the next presale
date and immediately find tickets.
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February 20th, 2011 at 3:57 pm 255
@kansai92: "Sold out means nothing."
This unit was making large waves in the Chinese investor community obsessed with presales. It's right beside one of the largest Chinese malls in the Lower Mainland and has stunning views. It shouldn't come as a surprise this development sold out, notwithstanding the above the chance for some quick bucks flipping assignments over the coming years will provide no end of entertainment and dim sum conversations.
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February 20th, 2011 at 4:04 pm 256
@Kanada:
Well you can do the math on it continuing for 10 or 20 years and then get back to us and see if you think if "never end" is possible.
10% per year increases puts that 2 Million westside tear down today at 16 million in just over 20 years. The mortgage payment at 6% would be $96,000 per month or 1.15 million per year. You would need to make 3.45 Million per year to qualify for a mortgage. A person making 200K per year today would only make 375K in 20 years at 3% compounded wage increases.
No one can say WHEN it will end, but we can sure say it WILL end. And unless you sell/exit the market at some point, you will eventually lose all your gains. Pretty much gambling at this point.
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February 25th, 2011 at 7:48 am 257
[...] at vancouvercondo.info February 18th, 2011 at 9:34 am – “I was talking to a friend last night and he mentioned they’re trying to sell their [...]
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