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Friday Free-for-all!

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Hey everybody! It’s the end of yet another work week and that means it’s time for our weekend news round up and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–OV condo bargains: 1 bdrm 790 square feet now only $590k! (video)
–OV suites so close “it will be like non-stop reality TV.”
–Ready to lose money taxpayers?
–Vancouver house shopping? Welcome to the money pit.
–Earn good money lining up for condos!
–Apparently only chinese language media interested in lineup story
–50% increase in mortgage delinquency
–What’s going on with Vancouvers west side?
–Household debt surpasses six figure mark
–Housing market implications of BCs age structure
–Olympic white elephants?
–34% of Seattle houses now worth less than their mortgages
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] at vancouvercondo.info February 18th, 2011 at 9:34 am – “I was talking to a friend last night and he mentioned they’re trying to sell their […]

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Renting

@Kanada: Landlords buy Vancouver RE not for rent income but capital appreciation. This will go on as long as buyers keep buying at higher prices expecting higher prices and nobody on this blog can say if it will ever end Well you can do the math on it continuing for 10 or 20 years and then get back to us and see if you think if "never end" is possible. 10% per year increases puts that 2 Million westside tear down today at 16 million in just over 20 years. The mortgage payment at 6% would be $96,000 per month or 1.15 million per year. You would need to make 3.45 Million per year to qualify for a mortgage. A person making 200K per year today would only make 375K in 20 years at 3% compounded wage increases. No one… Read more »

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jesse

@kansai92: "Sold out means nothing."

This unit was making large waves in the Chinese investor community obsessed with presales. It's right beside one of the largest Chinese malls in the Lower Mainland and has stunning views. It shouldn't come as a surprise this development sold out, notwithstanding the above the chance for some quick bucks flipping assignments over the coming years will provide no end of entertainment and dim sum conversations.

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kansai92

Sold out means nothing. When the BC Lions sell out at 33,000 or whatever the hell the magic number is, guess what, it's not sold out. They could easily open up the upper levels and add another 30,000 seats. Now we know that Sovereign is NOT sold out. There will be a Phase TWO, I guarantee it. Don't even try to pretend that it's any near sold out. At least 20 to 30% of those contracts will be cancelled after the 7-day cooling off period due to cold feet or specuvestors who can't get do the flip on Craigslist. The remainder are probably naive suckers pulled in by pretentious realtors and marketers. This is no different than Ticketmaster presales for concert tickets. Some people get a presale code earlier than others. For that presale, a particular number of tickets is… Read more »

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fixie guy

#249 Kanada Says: "This will go on as long as buyers keep buying at higher prices expecting higher prices and nobody on this blog can say if it will ever end"

Ten minutes with Excel will prove that wrong, but thanks for illustrating clearly and honestly the magicthink driving the markets.

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jesse

@McLovin: I think that's the place a friend of mine studying English stayed at for 4 months a few years ago. One of the owners had some mental problems. Don't know if it's the same owners who are renting, or if the woman is involved but I'd stay away from that place. It's haunted.

And no I'm not making this up.

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Spec

@Kanada:

"Landlords buy Vancouver RE not for rent income but capital appreciation"

Speculation, by definition.

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Renting

@McLovin: The place would sell for 2.5 to 3.0M depending on street and renos. A mortgage on 2.5M with 5% down would be $11,250 at todays rates (soon to be higher). Property tax, insurance and very basic maintenance add another $1000 per month. Opportunity cost on the DP at $700 per month. Roughly you can rent the place for 1/3 of ownership if they get full rent and the place is only worth 2.5M. If the place is worth more than 2.5M and you could negotiate the rent down by at least 10% your rent may only be 1/4 of ownership costs. The yield would be under 1.5%. The place has to appreciate at 2% per year with 100% occupancy and no major maintenance issues just to get the same return as a 5 year GIC of 3.5%. Where can… Read more »

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Kanada

230

Prices can stay out of proportion to rents as long as the prices do stay up and increase every year due to whatever (rich Asians ?) besides rental income. Obviously rental income is not what is used to determine Vancouver RE prices presently. If the landlords equity on paper keeps increasing, he feels richer and will tolerate low returns compared to ownership cost. This is what been happening in Vancouver. Landlords buy Vancouver RE not for rent income but capital appreciation. This will go on as long as buyers keep buying at higher prices expecting higher prices and nobody on this blog can say if it will ever end

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McLovin

Assessed at $1.2MM.

Its a 6900 sq ft lot. There is no way this is selling for anything close to $1.2 Mil even with it being on Granville. Shit box maybe but they are putting in a new kitchen, washrooms, windows. That type of reno is $250K easy. I bit this place would see in a bidding war at $2.5mil.

This is another example of a Vancouver house being rented for well less than 1/2 the cost of owning.

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Bear Patrol

@McLovin: They would prefer a long-term lease. $4300/month. That's $750,000 mortgage at 5.5%. Assessed at $1.2MM. This is not Shauuuughnessey. It's Kerrisdale. It's also a junkbox. Rent's about right. If that place was sold it would be ripped apart for Rish Asians. Don't know how easy it will be to find renters for $4300/month.

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Best place on meth

Ian Watt says "a lot of people don't trust realtors, and there are a lot of reasons why".

I just gained some respect for Mr. Watt.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1Y1w7awKSU&fe…

It's also the first time I've heard the word "suckholed" used since the 90's.

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Anonymous

this weekend sold out just ticked some more out of the bears.

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McLovin

$4300 a month for a reno'd place on the Westside.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2224831…

Any idea what this place would sell for?

Can you see a disconnect between price vs rent?

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Best place on meth

Here's CREA chief economist Gregory Klump with a recap of January's real estate market.

I'm not sure why he's making that face, whether it's gas, difficulty seeing the monitor, or maybe a pantsless camera operator but the segment is highly insightful.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZshK-xkq3yU

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Best place on meth

I'm a little confused by this video starring Mike Stewart, Realtor and Jessi Johnson, AM 730 official mortgage expert.

Normally I would find myself enamored by such star power, gulp down everything they say as gods word, and then beg for more – but I found something very odd about one statement in particular.

How much did he say the average person makes in Vancouver?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxYMwSHBLRg

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Spec

@Best place on meth:

ohh. Ma husba buy tree…

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jesse

@patriotz: "Prices cannot stay out of proportion to rents regardless of income trends"

This point is valid however, based on some neighbourhoods I'm familiar with (some in Vancouver some in Toronto), there has been a marked change in the income levels of marginal buyers in the past 20 years. Even though rents in those areas for low quality housing remains low, the marginal owner-occupier is of a higher income bracket than the seller.

You may be right the whole effect could be illusory.

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Best place on meth

@specuskeptic:

Brand new listing, no photos yet. You can't expect realtors to be able to snap 4 pics and upload them in the space of 24 hours. That's hard work, and complicated.

No, it's all the the description – you just have to imagine the tree in all its leafy glory.

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Spec

@Best place on meth:

Don't see anything – no photos in the listing… removed?

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vreaa

The Sunny Lee "real estate, you’re buying something" quote urges us to retort…"Yeah, a toothbrush for a thousand bucks".

[paraphrasing older VHB example]

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vreaa

Follow up re Burnaby Sovereign:

1."sold out" (…really?)

2. craigslist flips (c/o VCI)

3. Follow up breathless infomercial from Global TV (c/o Greenhorn).

Includes great quotes:

"We are still remembering the two years ago, the economic crisis.. you know.. people don't have a lot of confidence.. those monetary products… but, as a real estate, you're buying something" – Sunny Lee, Royal Pacific Realty

"And a quick footnote to the story, if you were interested in buying a condo at The Sovereign… it is now Sold Out." – Announcer (with, arguably, 'told-you-so' delivery)

http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Rm
(scroll down for updates)

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Best place on meth

The secret to west side demand revealed.

http://www.mls.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId…

It's all about the tree.

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4444

@jesse:

"For the buyers: I wish you good luck. You’re going to need it!"

Sorry no can do, curse already in motion, bad luck for 44 years.

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Extremely rich Van h

@Devore:

Don't worry they are waiting Money secretly channelled under the table;when the fund has arrived,it will crushed bears' nuts and smeared on the ground.

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