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Friday Free-for-all! March 18th Edition

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143 Comments

Hey! You made it to the end of another work week! The weekend is nigh and that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Confused ‘paycheck-to-paycheck’ buyers race to beat deadline
–Buyers unhappy with condos from shell company after developer goes bankrupt
–Olympic Village sales not slowed by allegations of shoddy construction
–Community groups protest Chinatown condos
–8000 Vancouver buildings vulnerable to earthquakes
–You’ll be able to buy more condos at $10.25 per hour!
–Victoria homebuilders blame politics for downturn
–Canada earns a ‘C’ for economic performance
–Where to invest next: Bamfield!
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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vreaa

Macleans article of note:

Macleans: 'The Canada Bubble' –

"Housing has gotten crazy, it’s a bubble. Prices are set to plunge at least 25 per cent."

Link, Excerpts and Comments:
http://wp.me/pcq1o-21n

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rp1

This is interesting:

https://advisor.rbcgam.com/public/assets/ppt/big-…

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History of Failure

Oh look, some anonymous douchebag has thrown down a gauntlet.

Why do I not give a shit?

*****

Everyone posting on this blog is anonymous retard…

And yes, you are included as one of the bears professing the coming collapse with the March 18th rules.

Lets check back in 3 months and see where things are at.

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Best place on meth

@History of Failure:

Oh look, some anonymous douchebag has thrown down a gauntlet.

Why do I not give a shit?

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Kosta

@Best place on meth:

That guy is great example that bad hair transplants are, unfortunately, not uncommon. I would never take his financial advice after seeing that fiasco at the top of his head.

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History of Failure

Well, March 18th is behind us now. It will take a week or so for the sales made before March 18th to filter through the system. Then what? They what? Well according to all the bears here, March 18th heralds the beginning of the crash. No walking away from it this time bears. Many of you here have repeatedly stated that the market will collapse after March 18th. No pussy footing around about the crash of 2012 if things don't look they are going your way in a few months. In the next few months, everyone better be seeing price declines or all of you will be utterly useless in your predictions – once again. First, you were wrong about what the recession would do to RE. Then you were wrong about rising interest rates. The you were wrong about… Read more »

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Best place on meth

@southseacompany:

That's a very old photo of Helmut from way back when he first joined the 17th Panzer division. He and Ozzie Jurock were a holy terror on the Soviet front.

Ah, good times….

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southseacompany

Helmut Patrick says, "Soaring jobless rate seen as sign of optimism"

http://www.bclocalnews.com/fraser_valley/missionc…

Now that's a spin!

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CRASH JPMorgan-Chase

@james:

MULTICULTURALISM HAS FAILED
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embed…

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Irish Guy

When I say Chinese, I mean the real Chinese…that is mainland Chinese. I’m fluent in Mandarin Chinese, so I can understand what they’re saying.

I was at 4 open houses today too. No Mainland Chinese but several lepricons. Since I speak Irish I know they were in fact lepricons. I over heard one talking about paying full price with a pot of gold.

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patriotz

@WFT?:

How many people have given up on the idea of ever owning a SFH in metro vancouver?

Well I've already been a homeowner so "ever" excludes me.

What I've given up on is living in Vancouver long term for other reasons (job opportunities & quality of life). If I were interested in staying, I would consider buying if price/rent (including suite income) went down to 150. I'm pretty sure we'll see this again, but it might take over 5 years.

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jjbinx

@Steve:

When I say Chinese, I mean the real Chinese…that is mainland Chinese. I'm fluent in Mandarin Chinese, so I can understand what they're saying. None of them were speaking English too. I don't know whether they're immigrants or just visiting. Some look pretty young, likely in their twenties.

I also overheard an agent say that his buyer doesn't have income, but will be able to put 50% down against a 570k townhome.

Anyway, I'm just reporting what I'm seeing. Don't shoot the messenger.

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WFT?

Lets do a poll. How many people have given up on the idea of ever owning a SFH in metro vancouver?

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jesse

So I went to my trusted old "TD Mortgage Calculator" looking to do some calculations and, all of a sudden, I can't fill in a 35 year amortization, only 30 years or less!!! WTF is going on? I have a hefty DP (well let's pretend I do…). Why is TD reducing their amortizations for ME? I don't need mortgage insurance. Aren't they adequately covered even if I take out a line of credit? Why should they force me into 30 years or less?!?

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Best place on meth

@VHB:

>>>Well, March 18th is behind us now. It will take a week or so for the sales made before March 18th to filter through the system. Then what?<<<

Most sales are counted within 3 days with some stragglers taking up to 3 weeks. We should have an accurate idea by Friday's numbers where we stand.

I expect sales to drop 30% by then.

Then, in another week and a half we move to the next level for listings, the serious numbers where 400 is a normal day and 500 is a good day. MOI should take off like last year.

Where it gets really interesting is will unsuccessful sellers pull their listings like they did last year or not?

No 2 years are the same so stay tuned for the latest unexpected curve ball to this crazy market.

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Extremely rich Van h

@Say what?:

Only Chinese from mainland China can afford living in Vancouver,Asians frm other countries are only poor migrants who are hardly be able afford anything in this expensive city.We should separate Chinese from those poor Asians.

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Say what?

"When you say ‘chinese’ do you mean Asians"

When you say "Asians" do you mean people from the continent of Asian? That includes, china, russia, india, japan, etc.

Chinese does not mean the same as "Asian" because "Asian" includes non-chinese.

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Devore

@jjbinx:

Didn’t help that the weather was nice too.

Huh, what is that supposed to mean?

Doesn't nice weather mean yardwork? Or was that rain keeping people away? I don't know, I misplaced my excuse calendar.

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Steve

@jjbinx: When you say 'chinese' do you mean Asians? Isn't the Vancouver population half asian, or do you mean they are mainland Chinese who came here just to buy property and they showed you their passports?

I found it particularly interesting that the OV buyers who are suing aren't mainland Chinese, they are local realtors and mortgage brokers who perhaps drank too much of their own koolaid. Funny how every salesperson is talking about Chinese buyers lately and yet we still have NO hard stats. Wonder why that is?

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Anonymous

@Patiently Waiting:

Don't forget that you won't be able to HELOC you're way into buying an investment property with CHMC insurance anymore (use equity meet down payment requirements). The banks will have to be willing to absorb all of the risk themselves since CMHC will no longer insure HELOCs. Leveraging your existing property into multiple properties is pretty much the definition of a pyramid scheme/house of cards, I'm going to bet the banks won't go for it anymore.

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jjbinx

Went to 4 open houses today for 3~4 bedroom townhomes. asking prices are 620k to 720k. Still a lot Chinese checking them out. I guess the CMHC rule changes dn't really affect them. Didn't help that the weather was nice too.

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Patiently Waiting

We also need to consider the HELOC changes which happen in April. That effect will be less immediate, IMHO, but it could be more profound than the amortization change.

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VHB

@Devore: sales above average; not record territory. Listings record territory.

But, how much of the new listings was just the sell-side 'rush to March 18th'? That is, people putting their house on the market to meet the rush to buy before March 18th? That's what will become clear the next few weeks.

The number I'll be watching is total new listings: 300+ a day and we are still in record territory. Under 300, and we are high, but not record territory.

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Devore

How do February and March (so far) sales and listing compare to previous years?

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VHB

Well, March 18th is behind us now. It will take a week or so for the sales made before March 18th to filter through the system. Then what?

As always, the key will be the accumulation of total inventory. If new listings remain high and sales dive down, accumulation will increase.

While there may will be an increase in 'want to sells', we won't likely see a quick crash unless a lot of 'have to sells' join them.

An uptick in 'have to sells' will happen through

– unemployment rising significantly. If it hits double digits in BC, then watch out.

– construction starts down leads to construction employment falling. Not really happening yet.

– Interest rates rising. Watch BoC on April 12th, May 31st.

Without this kind of 'have to sell' uptick, it will be slow.

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