No F#(*!n@ Bailouts!
Noticed some interesting discussion here the other day about personal responsibility and bailouts. This comment was from Frank Grimes:
I’ve been hoping for a while to see a blog post about preventing a bailout. We all have the general assumption that there will be a crash/burst/melt of the real estate market in Vancouver. Maybe an issue we should concern ourselves with is preventing governments at any level from spending money on flawed and doomed-to-fail subsidies and buyers grants in hopes of stabilizing the market. I see it as being a black hole of money (corroborated by the US experience), and feel that it would hinder the process of resource re-allocation back to parts of the economy that are more “productive”.
Here are a few of my thoughts, how about you guys?
Bulls: Prices are HIGH! If you bought years ago you can cash out and escape Vancouver with quite the bundle now. Congratulations! .. or you can let it ride and see if there’s even MORE money to be made! Exciting times indeed, but how about this: Whichever you choose how about you agree now (while prices are high) that in the event of a housing market crash it’s caveat emptor? Let’s not try the same failed bailouts and market meddling they’ve tried in the states, how about a real free-market eh? You win some, you lose some. No F#(*!n@ Bailouts!
Bears: Election coming, is this the right time to contact candidates and preemptively ask them to pledge to stand against housing market bailouts? In a way the Canadian market is pre-bailed out via the CMHC, maybe it’s time to ask candidates to look at limiting taxpayer exposure to a housing market crash?
Everyone: What is about housing that makes people believe there’s such thing as a free lunch? Grow some balls and take personal responsibility for your buying decisions. No one else is going to read your contract for you or protect your bank account, it’s all up to you. If it’s worth it to you, BUY IT! .. But FOR THE LOVE OF GOD don’t complain to anyone if it turns out you paid the highest price and nobody else thinks it’s worth that. It was worth it to you right? You wanted it, you got the loan, you bought it. Just shut up and pay for it now, I don’t want to have anything to do with your decision, and I doubt any other taxpayers do, so let’s just say it loudly now: NO F#(*n@ BAILOUTS!
March 29th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
Please dont feed the troll "Romeo."
It cannot be that prick from Chipman's blog. That turd would not be stupid enough to comment here after being a hypocritical blow hard for so many years.
No one wanted to hear that turd's boasting about his clients on east hasting corners, his imaginary smoothness with blow up dolls, or his apptitude for ripping old ladies off.
He was a little kid that thought he knew everything.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:33 pm
March 29th, 2011 at 10:45 pm
McLoser:
I bought cheap and sold dear. As Charlie Sheen would say – “Winning!”
Your just a loser.
Now I’ll wait for prices to fall by a third and scoop in with an extra $120k cash on hand. Slick move, I’d say.
************
Lol – what a crock of shit.
You bought a little bachelor pad on the North Shore. No 120k profit asswipe, even if you did sell. Nice try loser.
Conduct your storytelling elsewhere.
March 29th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
dear romeo
you got lucky
please do not confuse this with intelligence
but please do enjoy your gains. I take it you are now renting and safely out of the market?
March 29th, 2011 at 2:45 pm
McLoser:
I bought cheap and sold dear. As Charlie Sheen would say – "Winning!"
Your just a loser.
Now I'll wait for prices to fall by a third and scoop in with an extra $120k cash on hand. Slick move, I'd say.
Shove some apples up your crabhole, that should improve your mood.
This is Romeo Jordan your bitching at, watch your mouth fool.
March 29th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
McLoser,
Yes numbknutz. I know things are slowing in the valley and will slow to a crawl here in Vantown soon as well.
I bought during a mid-cycle low and sold pre-March 18th, make a nice six figure hit tax free. Beat that fucktart.
March 29th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Vancouver streets in a few years according to local press with respect to RE demand from China. More pressure on health care too.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/29/chinese-…
March 29th, 2011 at 1:49 pm
What's with the sock puppets? Somebody's bored.. and their name could possibly rhyme with morton. Just speculatin' (but not on real estate because that would be just plain whacky).
In other news, for those who declare the March 18th deadline to be safely tucked away, it's a bit early to come to that conclusion. If, after the the next few weeks we see sales and inventory in normal ranges, then you will have the evidence you need to toot your horns.
March 29th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
past performance may not be predicative of future returns dear bears… but hey keep your chin up, you savings sit at a stellar 50K after renting for 5+ years; i hear winnipeg is a great place to retire
March 29th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
@VHB: VHB how does this compare to past sale/list ratios for March?
March 29th, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Dave, please try to remember your past comments, see below.
One of your earlier posts implied that there were plenty of people earning 300K. You later stated that 200k wasn’t uncommon. Now presented with data showing just how uncommon it is to earn 200-300K you lower the bar to 150K.
Weak, very weak.
60 Dave Says:
March 25th, 2011 at 7:35 pm
@oneangryslav2:
Good point and nice thinking with applying stats. My point still stands though. $200k doesn’t seem to be that uncommon to me.
Dave Says:
March 25th, 2011 at 6:29 am
@slurker:
There simply isn’t a lot of SFH product available in Vancouver. Who can afford it? More people than you might think. Lots of people make significantly more than $80k household income per year. I guess it depends on what circles you are in.
I read an interesting thing about that recently. It has been suggested that most people have an income that is the average of their five closest friends. We tend to surround ourselves with a similar demographic and income level. That raises the potential of confirmation bias because somebody making say $50k, probably surrounds themselves with people that make around $50k. Such people probably don’t hang with the $300k crowd.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:36 pm
@44 space889 Says: I shouldn’t have to write anything so obvious but my post was about tax cheats, not domestic arrangements. Hopefully you understood that and #44 was just a cheap rhetorical ploy to the crowd. I don’t give a rat fuck where anyone’s from, those who hide income and drain social benefits are parasites. It should be an instant ‘get out of Canada free card’ for any landed immigrant.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:33 pm
@McLovin: it could be the market has slowed in the Valley but it could also be too many Realtors chasing too few buyers. Smaller pie or smaller slices of pie. For Realtors it's pretty much the same result.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
@fixie guy:
And where will yo be going?
March 29th, 2011 at 11:49 am
Where do I find strataman? I want to ask him some questions. Is he here? How can he be reached?
March 29th, 2011 at 11:47 am
Funny little story from the trenches…
I was chatting with a contact who's wife is a 20 yr. Realtard in the Valley. Basically she's "shitting" because she has a full time assistant and things are so slow that she is not even making enough commissions to cover he assistant. She is considering laying her off or retiring.
This is an experienced Realtard and not some newbie.
Interesting. Maybe things aren't what they seem in the press.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:44 am
Go away Romeo Jordan.
You had your 15 daily posts on Chipman’s Blog before you broke down and bought.
We don’t need you.
*****
Ya, screw off Romeo!
March 29th, 2011 at 11:42 am
Go away Romeo Jordan.
You had your 15 daily posts on Chipman's Blog before you broke down and bought.
We don't need you.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:19 am
March 2011 month-end projections
Days elapsed so far 15
Days missing 6
Days remaining 2
5 Day Moving Average: Sales 140
5 Day Moving Average: Listings 257
SALES
Sales so far 2527
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1118
Projected month end total 3645
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 4314
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 2056
Projected month end total 6370
Sell-list so far 58.6%
Projected month-end sell-list 57.2%
March 29th, 2011 at 11:08 am
@Nee-ne: Don't project your deceptive behaviour onto me. I think we all know who the sock puppet master is.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:05 am
Patiently Waiting Says:
March 29th, 2011 at 6:56 pm
@lackzadatle: If you’re going to be an ass about it, I don’t need your numbers. I never really needed daily numbers, though I understand others like tracking them. Anyhow, go fuck yourself realwhore scumbag
_____
I think you forgot to change your handle "Best Place on Meth." Your other persona doesn't hide your angst ridden youthful rage.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:03 am
March 29th, 2011 at 6:51 pm
Romeo Jordan
don’t worry, average sales will drift down below 130, and we’ll have some sub 100 sale days soon enough…realtors (well, let’s not forget the 80/20 rule, the better ones will do just fine) will start to bomb out in droves….they will push clients to reduce prices to attract a bid…don’t worry, its coming you MORON
____________
Lol, well here is a youngin' blast from the past!
Good ol' Romeo Jordan whose famous line was always "dont worry, the trend is your friend." Mister, 'I follow the inventory on the North Shore and the trend is prices are falling."
Of course, he kept repeating that mantra from 2008 on through 2009 as inventory shrunk and prices rose on Chipman's blog
Wow,your commentary here is as valuable as used toliet paper.
Go back to your little bachelor condo you purchased with your "great" negotiating skills, and leave this place to real bears!
March 29th, 2011 at 10:56 am
@lackzadatle: If you're going to be an ass about it, I don't need your numbers. I never really needed daily numbers, though I understand others like tracking them. Anyhow, go fuck yourself realwhore scumbag.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:51 am
don't worry, average sales will drift down below 130, and we'll have some sub 100 sale days soon enough…realtors (well, let's not forget the 80/20 rule, the better ones will do just fine) will start to bomb out in droves….they will push clients to reduce prices to attract a bid…don't worry, its coming you MORON.
just wait for it – no, actually go buy a condo or two, keep the sales numbers pumped up, this is a never ending appreciation machine, ain't it!?
Nah, fundamentals always rule the roost in the long run, and this run has been long enough.
Loser!:0
March 29th, 2011 at 10:50 am
@SourLemon:
"Stories of people getting tricked into sponsorship from a shedevil while on vacation are all too common in the news."
I can't even remember the last time I heard of one.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:47 am
New Listings – 78
Back On Market Listings – 0
Price Changes -23
Sold Listings – 60
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 243
Back On Market Listings – 5
Price Changes – 94
Sold Listings – 164
___________
Come on people! Vote up what is clearly a collapse in sales due to the March 18th rules! Yes, the collapse is here!
Oh wait, time to pick a new reason why prices will fall.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:33 am
@chip 105
Your link states that the government may, out of compassion, forgive a sponsorship debt. It doesn't mean that my friend can encourage his inlaws to apply for welfare without him having any recourse.
He would have to prove to the government that something needing compassion take place, be that a divorce, or him losing his job in order to get forgiveness of the sponsorship responsibility. Odds are that the sponsor and relationship is pretty darn stable to consistently post a high income for the 7+ years it takes for family class immigration.
Spousal immigration on the other hand is where most of the social assistance is coming from. Stories of people getting tricked into sponsorship from a shedevil while on vacation are all too common in the news.
So Joe, aged 22 falls for a diva while on cancun. Brings her over to find out she took an earlier flight and have signed on for social assistance. What's he to do? Is it his fault Hollywood set a standard for him and his peers (guys & gals)? Is it his fault prostitution is illegal? Is it his fault his ugly? This is why they fought for compassion.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:16 am
patriotz Says: "You were doing OK until you got to that sentence."
Dummy, the questions is not where immigrants settle down but where are they in significant numbers. Kapish? or you have reading comprehension problem?
March 29th, 2011 at 10:10 am
@WFT?:
Before this gets repeated too much, I think you mean non-residents. Do hospitals even keep statistics on citizenship of patients? They don't ask to see your passport.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:06 am
@cabby:
You were doing OK until you got to that sentence.
Greater Toronto gets 1/2 of all immigrants to Canada. Montreal gets about the same number as Vancouver, which is less per capita, but still very significant.
Throw in a fair number in Calgary and Ottawa and that pretty much covers it.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:01 am
@Anonymous:
I could not agree with you more Anon, where will they learn how to become serial killers like gold old Picton, or bugger young defenceless kids like our priests did, or become biker gangsters..??
Enough already there are jerks in every culture.
We cannot stop the trend wether we like it or not- and I was born in BC unlike most of those on the board who are the most vociferous, who I suspect are Brits- the trend is for Chinese settlement of North America. We are as likely to reverse it as the Aboriginals are of kicking the Brits out of Australia.
Our healthcare system was not sustainable before a few hundred thousand old immigrants came, because we already have about 6 million in the same category.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:00 am
@Anonymouse: "What’s that as a %-age of all revenues?
It is more relevant to ask, what is that as a total percentage of amounts billed to non citizens. Are 60% of them not paying their health bill? Or is it only 1%?
March 29th, 2011 at 9:55 am
I was told that in Canada the second generation immigrants are assimilated because of our great high school system where they learn the ways of Canada.
What about a school like UHill, where 80% of the population come from the same foreign background? Who becomes used to whose customs?
I witnessed in another country the ways immigration changed people's manners, from driving to lining up to cheating. There are developing countries where one needs to struggle for everything. Will immigrant change by coming to Canada if they stay in their own ethnic community?
March 29th, 2011 at 9:53 am
frank, thanks for very educated post.
Devore Says: "Which part of Canada does not have a large immigrant population?"
BC interior, whole AB, SK, MB, Nova Scotia, NB, whole Quebec outside Montreal, large part of Ontario.
Basicly Vancouver is the only city that has significant immigrant population.
Just ask, you can learn something new every day.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:52 am
@chip:
"BC hospitals are currently owed over $20 million for unpaid bills by non-citizens"
What's that as a %-age of all revenues?
March 29th, 2011 at 9:51 am
@Lister:
Still no sign of a March 18th downturn. Interesting.
My expectation was only a minor effect. So far, it’s basically no effect.
Give it another week though.
_____
We will see. According to the great one, only half of the sales are pre-March 18th.
But of course the douchebag has been going on about every potential catalyst for a collapse, from the Olympics to rising interest rates, and each time he has been DEAD WRONG.
No reason to think that the March 18th rules will just be another failed catalyst for an RE collapse – one in a long line…
March 29th, 2011 at 9:49 am
If anyone has any doubts that our medical system is about to go bust, here is the first graph to make them think otherwise.
Healthcare use and costs ramp up after 65
http://financialinsights.files.wordpress.com/2010…
We are just about to hit the bulge
March 29th, 2011 at 9:48 am
@Lister:
Still no sign of a March 18th downturn. Interesting.
My expectation was only a minor effect. So far, it's basically no effect.
Give it another week though.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:45 am
ew Listings – 78
Back On Market Listings – 0
Price Changes -23
Sold Listings – 60
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 243
Back On Market Listings – 5
Price Changes – 94
Sold Listings – 164
__________
Hey Best Place on Meth,
Are you feeling like a douchebag yet? How many sales did you say – 26?
Looks like list sell ratios just keep getting better!
As I said, when little grad school douches like BPOM squawk, you know that the market is getting better.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:40 am
Fine theory. In reality, many do not fulfill their requirements. According to this story in 2004 Ontario was paying $70 million annually in assistance to supposedly sponsored immigrants.
http://www.thecourt.ca/2010/09…..ship-debt/
_____
Great research Chip! Certainly blows away the myth of family sponsorship and shows the difference between official policy and actual practice.
Taking note Sour Lemon????
March 29th, 2011 at 9:38 am
@cabby: Which part of Canada does not have a large immigrant population?
March 29th, 2011 at 9:37 am
The problem with our health system is not the old immigrants. They make up a small chunk of the users. Sure if you took out all the old immigrants you would probably save some dough..maybe 4-5%.
I work in healthcare and I know that we are going to hit the crunch soon. No one wants to admit it though.
Healthcare costs are still growing at twice the rate of the economy, for nearly twenty years. It is the Tsunami (sorry for using that word but it does sum it up well) up baby-boomers entering the older years. They use expensive tests and pills (most of which do very little to extend life) and nursing home beds and home care and it all costs lots of money, even after the Liberals busted the healthcare unions.
Do i have an answer..no. But I know blaming one group isn't going to fix it. Maybe make sure that older immigrants buy a private insurance for the first ten years, that would help a little, but the main problem is so big that this is fiddling.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:34 am
@ Dave
"We can always just give out more temporary work visas and require that their employers pay health care insurance."
Good idea as always from Dave-"solution solver"
Employers should pick up the bill.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:33 am
"Family class migrants require a sponsor. Those sponsors are required in writing to guarantee full recourse in the event the sponsored asks for a single dime from social support. These contracts are 10 years for family and 3 years for spousal."
Fine theory. In reality, many do not fulfill their requirements. According to this story in 2004 Ontario was paying $70 million annually in assistance to supposedly sponsored immigrants.
http://www.thecourt.ca/2010/09/15/bankrupting-the…
Four years ago, BC was owed over $50 million in such social assistance.
These are just examples of outright violation of the sponsorship agreements. The cost of treating millions of sub-median income new arrivals is the real issue.
And a little OTT but indicative of the cost of healthcare that is 'free' at the point of use, BC hospitals are currently owed over $20 million for unpaid bills by non-citizens, particularly as the paper puts it, in areas of high immigration. One Richmond hospital alone is owed over $1 million.
http://www.canada.com/richmondnews/news/story.htm…
March 29th, 2011 at 9:27 am
@just saying:
We can always just give out more temporary work visas and require that their employers pay health care insurance.