Beijing Price Drop

The recent news that new house prices in Beijing dropped more than 25% in one month was very dramatic. Perhaps too dramatic.

It may be just manipulated statistics. Beijing has indicated their intent to drop house prices while other chinese cities intend to ‘control’ house prices rather than ‘lower’ them.

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blueskies
Guest
blueskies

when everybody wants in

it is time to get out

there are no rational bull

arguments to counter this statement……

CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder

Sydney had the biggest monthly fall ever recently! Well according to the market leading index which goes back about 5 years. Want to see a good housing index? Seek information about the Herengracht in Amsterdam.

And to follow up on a theme from yesterday, there is no need to discuss absolutes when percentages will do.

For example, we've spent 18% of our after-tax income on renting this year. 35% of it goes towards other expenses and we save 47%. I don't think we're typical.

Keeping An Eye On Th
Guest
Keeping An Eye On Th

"This is just the latest twist to a story that’s been running for some time. Gulf sheikhs. Russian oligarchs. Newly rich Indian and Chinese tycoons. London has become a magnate for the international super-rich: a millionaire’s playground. Russian money has been flooding in for at least a decade. One hedge-fund manager here told me London property was a “laundromat for Russian money.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-worlds-hotte

What don't these people know Vancouver is the best place on earth? The English are known to exaggerate, so I’m inclined to believe, they have heard stories of the richest people in the world wanting a piece of the best place on earth and the Londoners don’t want to be upstaged by Vancouverites.

But, all joking aside the urban myth seems to be a marketing tool world wide.

vreaa
Member

PostCardsFromTheBlastRadius #3 – The Okanagan Bust – "Life Revolves Around You!"

http://wp.me/pcq1o-2ay

Latest in series of photoessays by 'Nemesis', documenting and riffing-on the collapsing periphery.

Gurgly
Guest
Gurgly

Hey Best Place on Meth,

You seem to be pretty quiet nowadays. I guess you are straining to hear that collapse around you eh?

Look, its one month past the March 18th rules and sales haven't been affected. Still waiting for that inventory to pile on. I think that most bears here agreed that after one month you could confirm or dismiss the impact of March 18th.

After being wrong about the recession, the rise in interest rates, Olympics, the HST, the 2010 April mortgage rules, the inventory parties, you can now chuck the devasting "March 18th" changes into your list of utterly wrong predictions!

Dear god bears, how many times can you keep spouting off at the mouth only to be shut down by fact!

I love seeing arrogant, know it all types continuously get screwed by reality.

space889
Guest
space889

Damn, we are only the 3rd most expensive for office space leasing in North America, and 23rd in the world, obviously more work to do to get to #1!

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+of

Extremely rich Van h
Guest
Extremely rich Van h

Vancouver seems to be the only oasis on earth and millions of newly rich in Chinese will cash in their holding and invest here.Chinese money will move here soon and average house price will no doubt jump to 2 million mark in few yrs.Bears will be wrong again and again as ususal and alos, humiliated again and again.

space889
Guest
space889

@Gurgly: Unfortunately you are right that BPOM has been awefullly quite recently.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@space889:

Yet we're ranked 68th in the world by GDP, just behind Lisbon and Athens (who are both about to go broke) at 95Billion annually.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_GD

rosy
Guest
rosy

@Gurgly

I must say I've been occasionaly following this site for 4.5 years and you forgot "Mythical Chinese Buyer".

On the West side prices are up 30-40% in that time period. I probably wouldn't buy now but we'll need a helluva correction to put people under water where it will really hurt. Most of my neighbours have been here for 10-20 years and have small mortgages and potentially huge cap gains (100%+).

Bears can yell all day that they're right but at the end of the day the scoreboard says game, set and match, 4 game sweep of the series.

Bring on the rabid (wrong) dogs!

Gurgly
Guest
Gurgly

space889 Says:

April 20th, 2011 at 9:16 am

@Gurgly: Unfortunately you are right that BPOM has been awefullly quite recently.

_________________–

Don't worry – he will be back. Humility is a learned trait for some, and maybe this latest wrong prediction will temper his definitive commentary.

Then again, most grad students are pretty dogmatic in their views and supremely confident of their "rightness. It takes some real world experience to learn that how things should happen is not how they actually happen.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Gurgly:

Slow sales day?

Extremely rich Van h
Guest
Extremely rich Van h

@Anonymous:

No, fast and quick sale at highest bids from wealthy Chinese.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Gurgly:

>>>Look, its one month past the March 18th rules and sales haven’t been affected.<<<

Are you blind or just fucking stupid? Sales haven't been affected?

They're down by a big chunk since March 18th. Look at Larry's west side stats conveniently separated into the month prior to March 18th and the month after.

http://www.yattermatters.com/2011/04/only-the-sha

Down 46%. Affected enough for you?

I find it quite telling how you worthless cheerleading scumbags hang around here looking for me like pedophiles at a school yard, it speaks volumes about the kind of people you are.

RE cheerleaders = predators.

JRoss
Guest
JRoss

"Look, its one month past the March 18th rules and sales haven’t been affected."

I posted this two threads ago, but apparently it bears repeating.

From Agent Will stats,

Sales for 2 weeks before Mar 18 and first week after:

745 773 896 – average = 805

Sales for three weeks since:

697 676 726 – average = 700

I seem to recall from my university days that 700 is less than 805. No other year on his graph shows April sales less than March sales.

But it’s probably nothing.

JRoss
Guest
JRoss

Meth's response was better.

bubbly
Member
bubbly

@Best place on meth: Median sold ask price BEFORE March 18 = $1.888 million. Median sold ask price AFTER March 18 = $1.888 million. Looks like lucky numbers to me. They would be luckier if the one at the beginning disappeared.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@rosy: Who said buying 10 – 20 years ago was a bad move? The warning signs are for 1st timers entering the market now. Do you think the performance of the last 10-20 years will be repeated?

killjoy
Guest
killjoy

I seem to recall from my university days that 700 is less than 805. No other year on his graph shows April sales less than March sales.

But it’s probably nothing.

————-

Yup it is nothing especially as the prices have not moved!

Its called noise…

WFT?
Guest
WFT?

How long until the RE industry lobbys the city to change its name to "Eight".

JRoss
Guest
JRoss

@killjoy

"its called noise…"

Please explain how you define "noise"

I see a 15% step change in sales that a heaviside filter (look it up) would clearly detect. I see no other March to April period showing the same step change. I see a noticeable drop in westside average and median.

You see a nonspecific undefined example of "noise"

You are probably correct. It probably is noise.

Until it isn't.

VANCOUVER_RE_SUCKS
Guest
VANCOUVER_RE_SUCKS

so what? The house price in Beijing is dropping, but the house price in Vancouver is keep rising. If you want to say the the decline house price, look no further, just look south. Beijing is too far away.

rosy
Guest
rosy

You are right when you say that no one said buying 10-20 years ago was wrong BUT 4.5 years ago a majority of people on this blog were wanking on about the "stupid" RE marketsaying prices were had been out of whack for years (lets say a couple for arguments sake). You can't keep repeating the same drivel YOYOY unless you DON'T believe the broken clock analogy. Most of you have been wrong and are bitter about it. Just man up and admit it!

rosy
Guest
rosy

ps sales drop on the west side had a lot to do with spring break. Westside will surprise you in April.

Drachen
Member

@rosy:

"Most of you have been wrong and are bitter about it."

It's interesting that this argument seems to come up every time the market is showing signs of collapse.

The argument is completely false though. If I say at midnight that the sun will rise again, I am not wrong between midnight and 6:30. I am right the whole time. I am only PROVEN right when the sun does rise, but you cannot argue whether we've been right or not in the past without evidence of what will happen in the future.

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