Net International Migration Negative

Long-time reader/commenter painted turtle found this interesting tidbit on BC migration via greaterfool blog: By the Numbers: Quarterly International Migration

While  the  net  loss  of  727  people  from  BC  to  other  countries  in  Q4  2010  is,  in  and  of itself, a small number (see Figure 1), it is significant both in terms of its direction—being the  first  time  that  BC’s quarterly  net  international  migration  has  been  negative  in Statistics Canada’s database, which dates back to 1972 and in its magnitude of change from previous quarters. While a seasonal pattern is evident in BC’s quarterly migration data, the decline in Q4 net international migration was much more pronounced in 2010 than in previous years, falling from a net inflow of 16,371 international migrants in Q3 2010 (the second‐highest on record in the past 38 years, after only Q3 2008), to a net outflow of 727 international migrants in Q4 2010.

Why the significant shift from historical trends? As it turns out, the answer lies not in a significant change in immigration or emigration levels, but in changes in the number of non‐permanent  residents  living  in  both  Canada  and  in  BC.  For  the  most  part,  non- permanent  residents  are  people  residing  in  Canada  who  hold  a  work  or  study  permit, and  their  dependants,  as  well  as  those  holding  Minister’s  permits  or  claiming  refugee status.
The paper argues that the numbers do not indicate a significant drop in international permanent migration levels — by all accounts Canada is accepting immigrants at a decent clip — but there was nonetheless a sudden shift away from non-permanent residents remaining in Canada past the end of 2010.
The significant outflow of non‐permanent residents nationally was also reflected in most provinces.  Alberta  saw  the  number  of  non‐permanent  residents  decline  by 6,725, Saskatchewan by 414, Manitoba by 406, Ontario by 12,603, and Quebec by 5,900. The most  notable  changes  were,  however,  in  the  west.  In  only  two  provinces  (BC  and Alberta)  was  immigration  not  significant  enough  to  balance  the  outflow  of  non‐ permanent  residents,  thus  resulting  in  declines  in  total  net  international  migration  of 727 in BC and 2,092 in Alberta
I don’t think there is much to read into this report yet — it is only one quarter — but for Q1 2011 and potentially beyond there will be that many more dwellings looking for inhabitants, and perhaps this indicates a push by the government to get permanent residents, who are in sum suffering from elevated unemployment levels, back to work.
Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
The One
Guest
The One

Graphically presented over here…

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/unexpec

kansai92
Guest
kansai92

Bulls argue that rich Asians don't need to officially migrate here in order to buy properties and price all us local losers out of the market forevah!

In fact, even on their way to YVR to leave the country, they make sure to stop by a few open houses and drop off suitcases of gold bullion.

real_professional
Member

TSX vs. Housing Prices updated for FEB 2011 (Teranet housepriceindex.ca updated today)

http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/tsx-vs-rea

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Why are people leaving the Best Place on Earth?

This is an outrage. 🙁

Quick, slap together a new TV ad full of BC celebrities who haven't lived here in 15 years.

Crank up the hype machine to eleven, there's no time to lose!

Snowrunner
Guest
I think there is a simple explanation, or at least a partial one. Until late last year Immigration Canada had a "no Labour Market Opinion (LMO) required" job category, or rather categories. If you met certain requirements (e.g. university degree) then you could come and work in Canada for any employer without having to jump through the hoops of obtaining a LMO first. The LMO btw, in BC last I checked took nine months. So what does that mean? Many employers cannot retain people even if they want to. If you have to wait nine months to get a new LMO and they only issue it for 12 months a foreign worker becomes much less useful to the employer, hence they don't even try (not that most employers were eager to get LMOs when I was still needing one, but… Read more »
Extremely rich Van h
Guest
"CMHC annual report: This is why Real estate in Canada has no upside left. Not only has housing related spending increased rapidly over the last decade but as a percentage of GDP it has hit 20 year highs… I am sure that the 2010 numbers push beyond the top slightly." What a retarded analysis purely from white prospective;such white dominated report ignores chinese either from local or abroad are the main driving force of RE upsurge in Ton and Van.For whites it is true that they got no money long ago to sustain the upside but Chinese still have unlimited supply of Money to keep the market in motion for few decades.China is the main financial hub of the world. Canada should be wise and smart enought to be friendly with China or this resource-driven-only Nation will be dealt with… Read more »
logic
Guest
logic

weak trolling effort. next.

granite countertop
Member
granite countertop

We're a city of immigrants, most residents moved from a different country or province. That also means that we know what's required to move, have done it once, can do it again if things aren't working out for us here.

I get the impression that people really like it here, but aren't emotionally committed to living here for the rest of their lives. Of course, once it pops many will be financially committed to living here…

Reflect
Guest
Reflect
Snowrunner ….and in general a changed tone in Canada, from: “Welcome, please participate” to “How dare you come here to our country?”. ************** Bullshit. This country bends over fucking backwards to accommodate every economic, political, and social reject and parasite from other countries, primarily third world countries. Don't want to que in an immigration line for years? Just jump on a boat and land at our shores and we will give you legal aid, housing, and social assistance. Just be sure to use the "refugee" word. Want to hide your illgotten gains from embezzling from state corporations? No problem, we will fast track you on your way to a shiny passport through the investor immigrant program. And don't worry, we won't even bother to ask how a mid-level manager from a state owned corporation as a net worth of 1.6… Read more »
real_professional
Member

Seasonal Sales Pair Volume also updated: http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/tsx-vs-rea

Snowrunner
Guest
@Reflect Bullshit. This country bends over fucking backwards to accommodate every economic, political, and social reject and parasite from other countries, primarily third world countries. Ah yes, the one hasn't changed. I see. You have proven that quite well with your opening sentence. Don’t want to que in an immigration line for years? Just jump on a boat and land at our shores and we will give you legal aid, housing, and social assistance. Just be sure to use the “refugee” word. Please, continue to show us how the tone hasn't changed. You're doing a really good job there buddy. Want to hide your illgotten gains from embezzling from state corporations? No problem, we will fast track you on your way to a shiny passport through the investor immigrant program. And don’t worry, we won’t even bother to ask how… Read more »
Snowrunner
Guest

@jesse: Yes, you can expect this.

I know one guy who is in the midst of trying to get PR status right now. He got another WP extension at the last second but now he's waiting to see how quickly everything can be processed. Obtaining an LMO will most likely be a pretty painful job.

Worst case for him I guess is that he's going back to Europe and keeps working from there. Loss for the local economy and also of tax revenue.

Logit
Guest
Logit

Nowrunner

Oh, you’re almost done proving that nothing has change

&&&&&&&&&&&

The only thing that has changed is the attitude of recent immigrants, and the exponential increase in abuse of Canada's social welfare system. That's it. Canada still rolls out the welcome wagon.

Troll
Guest
Troll

Wow, even trusted bear data source Teranet is showing a continued rise in Van prices.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx

Probably best to just forget about predictions. Even Garth isn't calling for a crash anymore. From his posting today, "There won’t be a crash putting a quarter of all Canadian homeowners under water or dropping houses in some cities by 56% – as in the US. That’s extremist." Wow, what a turnaround in position. If even uber-bear Garth has called off the crash, why are bears here still so confident in 70% off prices coming soon?

Snowrunner
Guest

@Logit: Mind backing that up with some data from, say, Statscan? Or is it just your "gut feeling" that the system is being abused by new arrivals?

LY
Guest
LY

I left Vancouver for Toronto last year and became a registered Ontario resident on Oct 2010. I guess there many others who gave up on BC too because of high housing prices and lack of jobs.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Troll: Teranet is a couple months behind and uses a three month rolling average. This is the same as looking in the rear view mirror.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@Anonymous: That's what bears said 10 months ago.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@jesse: Poor Garth, he's going to be wrong all the way up and now on the way down too.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@jesse: No pain at all. People like troll that use Teranet to poke bears is laughable. I can predict what Teranet's numbers will look like monthly. No surprises there.

JRoss
Guest
JRoss

@Troll,

Thanks for the insightful report on the Teranet numbers for Vancouver.

By chance, did you happen to see what they had for Calgary?

wpDiscuz