Uncategorized

Few macro observations today

46
46 Comments

Quick roundup of tidbits I collected:

First, notice the striking correlation between the %YoY change in Canada and Australian home price indexes:
AUD vs. CAD home price indexes

Graph sources:
AUS Price Index (fig 1)
CAD Price Index (comminuques->april)

Second, look at the similarities between today and summer 2008:
– Both Aus & Canada %YoY home price trends are following the trend set in ’08.
– USD index came within a hair of its summer ’08 lows and has started to rally
– Commodities have started to tank and have registered their largest 1 week plunge since ’08

Third, QE2 comes to a close end of June. No more $4 billion of liquidity pumped into the markets daily to goose commodities and other risk assets. This also gives further fuel to the USD rally.

A crash this time around would be uglier as interest rate ammo worldwide is thin. So buckle up and let’s get the remaining world housing bubbles popping at warp speed scotty!

Submitted by crashcow

46 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
patriotz
patriotz
9 years ago

@chip:

“Our mission continues…The War on Terror continues, yet it is not endless. We do not know the day of final victory, but we have seen the turning of the tide.”

Note the part where it says Mission Continues. I’m no fan of Bush but it’s interesting how his mere name causes springs and cogs to burst from peoples’ heads.

That follopwing a direct quote from Bush fraudulently connecting the war on Iraq with Bin Laden and Al Quaeda.

Priceless.

0
0
jesse
jesse
9 years ago

@CanuckDownUnder: "political activists aren’t too excited about issues that might impact their pocketbook"

Right from an episode of "Yes, Prime Minister". Classic. Enjoy your trip to the bottom, Australia.

0
0
chip
chip
9 years ago

@patriotz:

Here's what the speech actually said:

""We have difficult work to do in Iraq. We are bringing order to parts of that country that remain dangerous."[10]

"Our mission continues…The War on Terror continues, yet it is not endless. We do not know the day of final victory, but we have seen the turning of the tide."

Note the part where it says Mission Continues. I'm no fan of Bush but it's interesting how his mere name causes springs and cogs to burst from peoples' heads.

0
0
patriotz
patriotz
9 years ago

29.4% of all US SFH with mortgages are underwater:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/zillow-…

Since about 1/3 of US houses don't have mortgages, that would be about 20% of all houses.

But of course there is tremendous variation by region.

In a number of MSAs, more than half of single-family homes with mortgages have negative equity: Phoneix, Tampa, Atlanta, Riverside (CA), and Sacramento.

What would the numbers be here if we saw a 30-40% nominal price drop?

0
0
paulb.
paulb.
9 years ago

New Listings 309

Price Changes 156

Sold Listings 143

0
0
lol cats
lol cats
9 years ago

to all my bear friends…to quote tony montana "this town is one big pussy waiting to get fu@ked" or the tv edit" this town is one big ice cream waiting to get licked."

0
0
CanuckDownUnder
CanuckDownUnder
9 years ago

And remember that idiotic (and unnecessary) buyers strike? Turns out the political activists aren't too excited about issues that might impact their pocketbook, or at least their paper equity:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/house-buyers-strik…

0
0
Romeo Jordan
Romeo Jordan
9 years ago

37

Great question – you get one gold star.

I'm here to prove that I have been right all along.

Now go back to your job, and remember to ask me if I want fries with my order!

Thank you McLosin.

xoxox

Romeo Jordan

0
0
CanuckDownUnder
CanuckDownUnder
9 years ago

It's budget day in Australia today.

The government is currently running a massive deficit and can't throw all sorts of money at the housing market like they did a few years ago.

While the mining sector is enjoying the biggest boom in Australia's history the rest of the economy is suffering. Inflation is currently running at 3.6% and the RBA is dropping lots of hints that more rate rises are on the way.

Should be an interesting few years ahead.

0
0
Anonymouse
Anonymouse
9 years ago

@Romeo Jordan:

Seriously, what's the point in your poor impersonations of a poster who used to reside on an entirely different blog?

0
0
DaMann
DaMann
9 years ago

@chip:

You're joking right? The Mission Accomplished was to signal the end of the Iraq War when in fact it was only the beginning. When a president speaks, regardless of location, it's pretty much all setup and scripted. That Banner was supposed to be there and the POTUS and his ilk, wanted it there. Sorry to step on your toes George, I will try to be a bit more accurate in the future.

0
0
McLovin
McLovin
9 years ago

Romeo Jordan, you got fired from a world class "capital management" company who's head office is not in New York, London or Toronto but,

Suite 213 5455 152nd St

Surrey, BC, Canada

Bhahahahahahaahah!

Wow you really are more pathetic than I thought.

0
0
patriotz
patriotz
9 years ago

@chip:

That Mission Accomplished banner was erected by the personnel of the ship to celebrate the fact that their particular mission was in fact accomplished.

You're talking as though it was a private pleasure boat rather than a USN ship whose every crew member was a subordinate of Bush.

0
0
Romeo Jordan
Romeo Jordan
9 years ago

http://www.pacificapartners.com/blog/2011/04/07/c…

one of the few times someone laid out the bear reality arguement better than I have – see link above (that means YOU McLosinIt).

0
0
Romeo Jordan
Romeo Jordan
9 years ago

Those chumps don't have nice rumps, the chicks leave them in clumps.

That's why it pays to be ME. And I'm ultra-bearish on Vancouver Real Estate, so heed my words and profit from them.

That means YOU McLosin.

xoxox

Romeo Jordan

0
0
real_professional
real_professional
9 years ago

My buddy sent me this, they don't believe in the China growth story either. Chinese market has been pathetic

http://www.pacificapartners.com/blog/wp-content/u…

0
0
chip
chip
9 years ago

@DaMann:

That Mission Accomplished banner was erected by the personnel of the ship to celebrate the fact that their particular mission was in fact accomplished. Bush's speech was actually quite different, with warnings that there was much work to do (you can google the speech, I did after seeing this meme trotted out so often).

There were a ton of idiocies to lampoon about the war without fabricating new ones, as was done with this.

0
0
patriotz
patriotz
9 years ago

@DaMann:

My favourite (apart from the infamous Time cover) from the US is this doozer courtesy Mish.

Note the perfect timing – to sell!

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2005/1…

0
0
DaMann
DaMann
9 years ago

@Eddie:

Ha ha. I love stuff like that. It's usually things like that precede an epic fail. Sorta like Bush and "mission accomplished" Or Nortel being on the cover of a business magazine as company of the year right before the dot bomb hammer fell.

0
0
Best place on meth
Best place on meth
9 years ago

Check it out, this realtor has a whole section on his website called "Chinese MONEY".

Apparently the horde of locusts has moved on from Richmond to Burnaby/Coquitlam where they are busily munching through the inventory there.

I do like his little charts though.

http://www.coughlinteam.com/index.php?fuseaction=…

0
0
Eddie
Eddie
9 years ago

Anyone see the cover story of Reader's Digest this month? Apparently Mark Carney is now the "Man Of The Year" for saving Canada from the global economic meltdown. There's even talk of this ex-Goldman becoming Prime Minister one day. No mention of nasty stuff like the CMHC and the built in bailout that we already have here. How convenient!

http://www.readersdigest.ca/home-garden/money/one…

0
0
jesse
jesse
9 years ago

@Flip Flop: I would email to the address located here, or register for an account on the site and send a private message in the forum.

0
0
Growl
Growl
9 years ago

@Troll:

"Wow, when bears aren’t railing against HAM, this blog is slow."

HAM is a cancer to this city.

0
0
Ravishing Rick
Ravishing Rick
9 years ago

Cut the music!

Next time my landlord comes around complaining, I'm just going to suplex his sorry butt through the floor of his bank's shoddy wood frame constructed condo.

Hit the Music!

0
0
Troll
Troll
9 years ago

Wow, when bears aren't railing against HAM, this blog is slow.

0
0