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Friday Free-for-all!

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It’s the end of another work week! Crack open a cold one and lets talk about housing and the economy, it’s time for our weekly end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–How bad could it get in the housing market?
–Flaherty says Canadas housing market is moderating
–Overvalued Vancouver Real Estate could see major drop
–BC sales drop, prices rise
–Real Estate Council of BC investigates $1 sale
–One Fifth of Vancouver sales are over $1 million
–The hockey housing riots meme
–Calgary prices to grow year over year
–Chinese ghost cites
–US home sales drop to lowest level of the year

So what are you seeing out there? Post you news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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sahibinden

thanks for the post nice ideas and tips for me, your blog is awesome

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jesse

New post.

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Devore

@WFT?: How long have they been at it now? About a year? Anyone have an estimate? I would say about 1 year, ever since the first set of mortgage changes. However, the recent comments from Carney, Flaherty, now even with Harper and Stats Canada getting in on the action, to mention nothing of main stream media, is markedly different from what was happening a year ago. No one would even utter "bubble" last year, now it's in the open. When Carney was in Vancouver, he managed to give us 3 different definitions of "bubble", without actually saying the word. The times, they are achanging. I still see 2nd half of 2010 as the year lower mainland started to turn over, from the periphery communities, with the core remaining selectively hot and lifting the regional average. (Richmond itself accounted for what,… Read more »

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Anonymous

@WFT?:

July 9th, 2008 – CMHC stops 100% financing and 40 year loans:

In a statement earlier today, the Department of Finance said, "Today’s announcement marks a responsible and measured approach by the Government to ensure Canada’s housing market remains strong and to reduce the risk of a U.S.-style housing bubble developing in Canada."

Here's another from December 2009, Carney: Don't be seduced by low interest rates

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2009/12/16/…

So we've now been talking about preventing a US style mortgage problem for 3 years now and all that talk has gotten us into even more debt and higher housing prices. The pain has to come sooner or later, you can't make an economic recovery on credit alone.

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VanRant

@oneangryslav2: Have an Extradition treaty with China to deport all corrupt ex-government officials back to China. This is crash the Vancouver estate market by 70% immediately!

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WFT?

@Manna from heaven:

I agree that they know it will be a mess. However, they need to jawbone for a reasonable about of time so that it can be accepted that the public was given fair and reasonable warning. This is necessary if they hope to adequately deflect blame from themselves for the comming carnage.

How much jawboning time is required to have that effect? I would say that 18-24 months of repeated warnings before blowing up debtors is enough time to prevent blame from going to the Gov.

How long have they been at it now? About a year? Anyone have an estimate?

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crabman

@space889: If you don't believe "Aussie Guy" or patriotz, how about Jim Chanos?

He starts talking about China RE at 6:25. He is short on Chinese developers. His research team just got back from China and says they "aren't bearish enough".

He also talks about the horrible quality of the construction there. No wonder the HAM rats are jumping ship!

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/70128022/

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Li Kai Shing

Missing posts? …are the ones that were bought by HAM.

Not to worry….soon much China Syndrome….nuclear reactors sabotaged by realtors so tunnel dug to china. Bring much Yuan.

Always have back up plan…not head up ass.

Canucks season over..see if Mike Gilligan trade Louserongo, or change NHL rules so beach balls replace pucks.

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Not much of a name..

@Manna from heaven: Exactly, it's all about CYA. If they do nothing, then it'll be a case of don't blame us…look we warned you about this.

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Manna from heaven

Oneangryslav2.

I hear ya. I'm tired of the endless jawboning as well. I think both Carney and Flaherty know that no matter what action they take, even if they do nothing, that this going to end messily.

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oneangryslav2

@Manna from heaven: I'm tired of all the hand-wringing on this. If the Canadian government wanted to end the real estate bubble in Canada, it could do so in one fell swoop without having to resort to changes in monetary policy. We all know what that is: change CMHC policy on mortgage insurance–20% down payment/25-year amortization period as a rule.

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space889

@patriotz: I'm just reporting what I saw and what are some the reasons/motivations people have to buy houses in China and leave them empty. Why those empty city talk might not be what it seems. What makes you think that Aussie guy did any more in-depth research than visiting some developments, look at Google Earth pics, and come up with his conclusions just from some observations? Did he ever bothered to talk to people actually on the ground? Does he live in a Chinese city (not HK) full time and actually live there like a local rather than just stay in the ex-pat's zone? As well, what makes you think I have any financial or emotional attachment to property prices in China? Oh wait, because I'm Chinese and went to vacation in China, that means I'm biased towards Chinese property… Read more »

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patriotz

Six signs it's time to buy a house

1. You're Ready to Commit

Right

2. Owning Costs Less than Renting

Right but see #4

3. Buyer's Market

Meaningless. What matters is what you pay, not whether prices are negotiable.

4. Low Interest Rates

WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. The best time to buy is when interest rates are high.

5. Adequate Funds for A Down Payment

Right. The more the better, especially when interest rates are high.

6. Seasonal

See #3

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Manna from heaven

Harper, provinces should peel back subsidies that lever the housing market

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney may have to raise interest rates on all Canadians to stop a potentially catastrophic housing bubble, even though higher interest rates could abort our still-shaky economic recovery. Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the provincial premiers should stop him, not by telling him how to do his job but by doing their own jobs and setting the distorted Canadian housing sector aright.

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/06/24/lawre…

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rp1

More ghost cities in china:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2008161/G…

woooOOOOooooOOOOoooo

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chip

"Estimates by China’s central bank that up to 18,000 corrupt officials have fled overseas with over $120 billion in stolen money in the last few years are undoubtedly well short of the truth."
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Opinion+Corr…

That's about $6.5 million each and Canada is said to be the second-most popular destination after the US. Since many if not most of these Canada-bound officials would be focusing on Vancouver, it's not improbably that several thousand corrupt officials have arrived in the city in the last few years.

I wonder if this is one reason the govt is restricting the investor immigrant program? If so, it doesn't go far enough. Deportations are more like it.

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ReadyToPop

Central banks need to start raising interest rates to control inflation and may have to act faster than in the past, the Bank for International Settlements said.

Central Banks Need to Raise Rates: BIS

It's been an interesting weekend in the news for sure…..RTP

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ralph t.

The latest (and shocking) Canadian total debt statistics

http://www.bloggingtories.ca/forums/viewtopic.php…

If the link does not work, enter the first sentence of my post into google to get to the information

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pricedoutfornow

@ReadyToPop:

Good find. We have clients who used to buy recreational property in the Okanagan. Why would they even bother now when you can buy a place in Phoenix or Miami for 75% less? So they have.

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Devore

@jesse: Jawboning is different from bored. He's not talking to hear himself talk. He can't raise rates at the moment. (Or maybe he knows something we don't?)

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Extremely rich Van h

@Romeo Jordan:

Wake dead stinky corpse,those houses will sold in a wks.

there were 12 houses in my area and they sold to Chinese within two wks.

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asia man

hi guys havent posted for a long time. this is at supersogs 28 and the pizza boy. thanks for posting, yes, if the pizza guy is telling you to sell you know the contagion has pretty much reached its zenith. it gets weird before it starts getting sour.

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Li Kai Shing

Saltspring?

Who cares.

Stuck up Blitish imperialists live there.

Still tink Queen Victoria in charge, not even know WW I and II happened.

HAM not go there…whole Island be foreclosed on..after West Van….still not pay rent..time to kick em out.

Plicks.

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CanuckDownUnder

@ReadyToPop:

Is this Phil Soper for real? I think they're planning to use the Florida or Arizona properties in winter Einstein.

"Royal Lepage president Phil Soper, for one, downplays the idea that Canadian recreational markets will be affected by the American slump, pointing out that people want to drive, not fly, to a summer place and, in any case, you don’t escape summer heat by going to Florida or Arizona."

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jesse

@ReadyToPop: " “extreme example” of potential problems"

Yeah funny he should mention housing. I for one think he's just bored, and his musings are no indication in any way of any policy adjustments in the pipeline.

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