Friday Free-for-all!
It’s the end of another work week! Crack open a cold one and lets talk about housing and the economy, it’s time for our weekly end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few links to kick off the chat:
-How bad could it get in the housing market?
-Flaherty says Canadas housing market is moderating
-Overvalued Vancouver Real Estate could see major drop
-BC sales drop, prices rise
-Real Estate Council of BC investigates $1 sale
-One Fifth of Vancouver sales are over $1 million
-The hockey housing riots meme
-Calgary prices to grow year over year
-Chinese ghost cites
-US home sales drop to lowest level of the year
So what are you seeing out there? Post you news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
June 28th, 2011 at 9:47 pm
thanks for the post nice ideas and tips for me, your blog is awesome
June 27th, 2011 at 5:26 am
New post.
June 27th, 2011 at 4:22 am
@WFT?:
I would say about 1 year, ever since the first set of mortgage changes. However, the recent comments from Carney, Flaherty, now even with Harper and Stats Canada getting in on the action, to mention nothing of main stream media, is markedly different from what was happening a year ago. No one would even utter "bubble" last year, now it's in the open. When Carney was in Vancouver, he managed to give us 3 different definitions of "bubble", without actually saying the word.
The times, they are achanging. I still see 2nd half of 2010 as the year lower mainland started to turn over, from the periphery communities, with the core remaining selectively hot and lifting the regional average. (Richmond itself accounted for what, more than half of the Q1 increase?)
June 27th, 2011 at 3:45 am
@WFT?:
July 9th, 2008 – CMHC stops 100% financing and 40 year loans:
Here's another from December 2009, Carney: Don't be seduced by low interest rates
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2009/12/16/…
So we've now been talking about preventing a US style mortgage problem for 3 years now and all that talk has gotten us into even more debt and higher housing prices. The pain has to come sooner or later, you can't make an economic recovery on credit alone.
June 27th, 2011 at 3:02 am
@oneangryslav2: Have an Extradition treaty with China to deport all corrupt ex-government officials back to China. This is crash the Vancouver estate market by 70% immediately!
June 27th, 2011 at 2:55 am
@Manna from heaven:
I agree that they know it will be a mess. However, they need to jawbone for a reasonable about of time so that it can be accepted that the public was given fair and reasonable warning. This is necessary if they hope to adequately deflect blame from themselves for the comming carnage.
How much jawboning time is required to have that effect? I would say that 18-24 months of repeated warnings before blowing up debtors is enough time to prevent blame from going to the Gov.
How long have they been at it now? About a year? Anyone have an estimate?
June 27th, 2011 at 2:38 am
@space889: If you don't believe "Aussie Guy" or patriotz, how about Jim Chanos?
He starts talking about China RE at 6:25. He is short on Chinese developers. His research team just got back from China and says they "aren't bearish enough".
He also talks about the horrible quality of the construction there. No wonder the HAM rats are jumping ship!
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/70128022/
June 27th, 2011 at 2:28 am
Missing posts? …are the ones that were bought by HAM.
Not to worry….soon much China Syndrome….nuclear reactors sabotaged by realtors so tunnel dug to china. Bring much Yuan.
Always have back up plan…not head up ass.
Canucks season over..see if Mike Gilligan trade Louserongo, or change NHL rules so beach balls replace pucks.
June 27th, 2011 at 2:16 am
@Manna from heaven: Exactly, it's all about CYA. If they do nothing, then it'll be a case of don't blame us…look we warned you about this.
June 27th, 2011 at 2:06 am
Oneangryslav2.
I hear ya. I'm tired of the endless jawboning as well. I think both Carney and Flaherty know that no matter what action they take, even if they do nothing, that this going to end messily.
June 27th, 2011 at 1:36 am
@Manna from heaven: I'm tired of all the hand-wringing on this. If the Canadian government wanted to end the real estate bubble in Canada, it could do so in one fell swoop without having to resort to changes in monetary policy. We all know what that is: change CMHC policy on mortgage insurance–20% down payment/25-year amortization period as a rule.
June 27th, 2011 at 1:02 am
@patriotz: I'm just reporting what I saw and what are some the reasons/motivations people have to buy houses in China and leave them empty. Why those empty city talk might not be what it seems. What makes you think that Aussie guy did any more in-depth research than visiting some developments, look at Google Earth pics, and come up with his conclusions just from some observations? Did he ever bothered to talk to people actually on the ground? Does he live in a Chinese city (not HK) full time and actually live there like a local rather than just stay in the ex-pat's zone?
As well, what makes you think I have any financial or emotional attachment to property prices in China? Oh wait, because I'm Chinese and went to vacation in China, that means I'm biased towards Chinese property market. Honestly you may think you know a lot but when it comes to China at least, you know squat. Western reporting is about as biased as they come and if you believe even 1/10 of it then you haven't got any clue what about what's really going on in China.
If you want to just believe people who just confirm your bias & views about China, fine. That's your prerogative and your loss.
PS. people in China are actually more bubble aware than people here in Vancouver and frankly there is a much more serious debate about high housing prices there than you can ever hope to get here.
June 27th, 2011 at 12:57 am
Six signs it's time to buy a house
1. You're Ready to Commit
Right
2. Owning Costs Less than Renting
Right but see #4
3. Buyer's Market
Meaningless. What matters is what you pay, not whether prices are negotiable.
4. Low Interest Rates
WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. The best time to buy is when interest rates are high.
5. Adequate Funds for A Down Payment
Right. The more the better, especially when interest rates are high.
6. Seasonal
See #3
June 27th, 2011 at 12:50 am
Harper, provinces should peel back subsidies that lever the housing market
Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney may have to raise interest rates on all Canadians to stop a potentially catastrophic housing bubble, even though higher interest rates could abort our still-shaky economic recovery. Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the provincial premiers should stop him, not by telling him how to do his job but by doing their own jobs and setting the distorted Canadian housing sector aright.
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/06/24/lawre…
June 26th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
More ghost cities in china:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2008161/G…
woooOOOOooooOOOOoooo
June 26th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
"Estimates by China’s central bank that up to 18,000 corrupt officials have fled overseas with over $120 billion in stolen money in the last few years are undoubtedly well short of the truth."
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Opinion+Corr…
That's about $6.5 million each and Canada is said to be the second-most popular destination after the US. Since many if not most of these Canada-bound officials would be focusing on Vancouver, it's not improbably that several thousand corrupt officials have arrived in the city in the last few years.
I wonder if this is one reason the govt is restricting the investor immigrant program? If so, it doesn't go far enough. Deportations are more like it.
June 26th, 2011 at 11:18 am
Central banks need to start raising interest rates to control inflation and may have to act faster than in the past, the Bank for International Settlements said.
Central Banks Need to Raise Rates: BIS
It's been an interesting weekend in the news for sure…..RTP
June 26th, 2011 at 8:25 am
The latest (and shocking) Canadian total debt statistics
http://www.bloggingtories.ca/forums/viewtopic.php…
If the link does not work, enter the first sentence of my post into google to get to the information
June 26th, 2011 at 8:07 am
@ReadyToPop:
Good find. We have clients who used to buy recreational property in the Okanagan. Why would they even bother now when you can buy a place in Phoenix or Miami for 75% less? So they have.
June 26th, 2011 at 2:46 am
@jesse: Jawboning is different from bored. He's not talking to hear himself talk. He can't raise rates at the moment. (Or maybe he knows something we don't?)
June 26th, 2011 at 12:27 am
@Romeo Jordan:
Wake dead stinky corpse,those houses will sold in a wks.
there were 12 houses in my area and they sold to Chinese within two wks.
June 25th, 2011 at 10:18 pm
hi guys havent posted for a long time. this is at supersogs 28 and the pizza boy. thanks for posting, yes, if the pizza guy is telling you to sell you know the contagion has pretty much reached its zenith. it gets weird before it starts getting sour.
June 25th, 2011 at 1:21 pm
Saltspring?
Who cares.
Stuck up Blitish imperialists live there.
Still tink Queen Victoria in charge, not even know WW I and II happened.
HAM not go there…whole Island be foreclosed on..after West Van….still not pay rent..time to kick em out.
Plicks.
June 25th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
@ReadyToPop:
Is this Phil Soper for real? I think they're planning to use the Florida or Arizona properties in winter Einstein.
"Royal Lepage president Phil Soper, for one, downplays the idea that Canadian recreational markets will be affected by the American slump, pointing out that people want to drive, not fly, to a summer place and, in any case, you don’t escape summer heat by going to Florida or Arizona."
June 25th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
@ReadyToPop: " “extreme example” of potential problems"
Yeah funny he should mention housing. I for one think he's just bored, and his musings are no indication in any way of any policy adjustments in the pipeline.
June 25th, 2011 at 11:54 am
But now that boom, too, is emphatically over. Between 2008 and 2010, the average selling price on Salt Spring dropped to $508,000 from $635,000. In May, there were more than 400 listings on an island where, on average, only 15 residences are sold a month. Ozzie Jurock, a prominent Vancouver real estate consultant, recently surveyed the moribund B.C. recreational market on his blog, citing area after area where prices had dropped as much as 50% from the 2007–2008 peak, yet sale activity still lagged. Today, when someone mutters that cottage country is going American, the fear isn’t that we’re losing prime cottages to foreigners but that we’re following the U.S. real estate market down the sinkhole.
The western slump
June 25th, 2011 at 11:36 am
Mr. Carney has been trying to draw attention to excesses building up in housing, a trend that has emerged in Canada just four years after a historic housing bust in the U.S. In a speech in Vancouver earlier this month, the central banker called the city an "extreme example" of potential problems building elsewhere in the country.
Canada's Housing-Boom War
June 25th, 2011 at 5:12 am
I caught this on YOUTUBE
I checked out some items at home….and several products do contain several of the symbols mentioned.
UNBELIEVABLE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe2ZxVvHR4g&fe…
June 25th, 2011 at 4:40 am
@Van MD:
Here is an English version of the new Immigration policy, this one is much easier to read:
http://www.cicnews.com/2011/06/breaking-news-anno…
June 25th, 2011 at 3:33 am
Re: Safeway
Interesting about the Safeway site in Burnaby. A bit of background to share about the company and real estate in Vancouver.
While the land and buildings of the Burnaby Warehouse were owned by Safeway, the operation of the warehouse was the responsibility of Summit Logistics, a third-party logistics and distribution company that Safeway hired to manage the warehouse and trucking function for their BC operations.
According to an article in the Province reported by Alfie Lau of the Burnaby Now dated August 11, 2010:
- While the warehouse has been in operation since the 1950s, Summit didn't take over the warehouse and trucking contract until 1996.
- The layoffs will affect 31 managers and 360 union members.
-According to Shawn Lakusta, assistant provincial representative for the Retail Wholesale Union Local 580, Safeway informed Summit they were moving their warehouse to Langley and using a company called Cold Logic Corp.
-Counsellor Paul McDonell, when informed of the closure, said part of the property has been earmarked for parkland.
——–
As well, someone earlier commented that Safeway seems to be more in the real estate business than in the grocery business. Good observation. Safeway is a major property owner, not just in the Lower Mainland, but across BC, Western Canada and the United States. They operate more than 1,700 stores across North America (including more than 50 stores from Chilliwack to West Vancouver, 220 locations across Western Canada and over 800 locations across California). Their practice and preference is to own the property where their operate their stores, which is why, during real estate boom times, they could possibly be wealthier as a property owner than as a grocery retailer.
In addition to the property they own for their operating stores, they also own property where they use to operate stores, and may one day want to operate stores. When they close a store, they vacant the building and then lease it to other non-competing business, with little regard for what might be best for the community. At the end of the day, it's about business.
Safeway owns some of the most expensive property in the Lower Mainland at key intersections. This all began in the 1940s when they had a very smart and forward-thinking Real Estate Manager for Western Canada. He foresaw how the city would grow and expand, and started buying property in key locations and holding on to it for the company's future development. I met this individual several years ago. It was an unforgettable conversation about the early days of the city/Lower Mainland and the role he played (humble as he was) in identifying where and how the population would grow. With this foresight, he started purchasing property which is where many of the current stores are located.
June 25th, 2011 at 2:25 am
@Best place on meth:
Entrepreneurial spirit and high-end tech business in China…
Components, such as resistors and capacitors, are also re-harvested or faked. Over the past ten years billions of counterfeit ICs, microprocessors, and other components have been sold to private industry throughout the world, including medical equipment manufacturers. They have also been sold to America's aerospace industry and the US military.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/chinas_cou…
June 25th, 2011 at 1:58 am
@space889:
Being in their respective countries 365 days a year didn't help the Americans, Irish, etc. get it right so what makes you think a 2 week visit means you got it right?
I'd say frankly that someone without financial or emotional connections is more likely to get it right than someone with them.
June 25th, 2011 at 1:40 am
@Best place on meth: Uhm….dude, I said right in my post that I was in China last month! I was there, not just looking at some pictures or watching some news reports. I was actually in China for 2 and half weeks.
June 24th, 2011 at 4:34 pm
#62 @Devore: What a dumbass Bernanke is. His great insight was that he can always print money and cause inflation. Of course, he can't control what kind of inflation it is. QE2 helped a bunch of commodities speculators damage the balance sheets of real businesses and households. Now we are seeing the effects: a disappointing quarter, less hiring, and a market swoon to undo the panic rally sparked by money printing.
And you're just left to wonder if the moron will do it again because it's the only thing he *can* do. Never mind that it is actually bad. A lot of people are still screaming for the Fed to "do more" about unemployment. I don't think there's much they can do unless it's for the torch and pitchfork industries.
June 24th, 2011 at 12:10 pm
Where is Lavishing Lick ?
He actually a HAM ster….fake passport and ID…abusing MSP while in hospital. Circumcision is only for M-A-L-E-S…he/she playing gender card.
I not understand how he can let round eye pussies like Linden and Luongo beat him up fighting for lululemon kevlar "unmentionables" .
Linden sissy gym go broke.
Steve sNatch kick his ass ….
Luongo has off season job as sieve for whaling boat, with GM Mike Gilligan puckering up saying:
" ooooo Roberto..its not your fault can't stop beach ball or fat chick at all -you- can -eat- buffet….ooooooo ….next year is our year oooooooo ".
Me?
I prepared like condom supply at #5 Orange …I got scalpers front row seats for next riot !!!
Now we find out Lavishing Lick running for office under " Free McMansions" party.
Amazing how pool cleaner can make so much on tips.
Must be due to attention to detail.
June 24th, 2011 at 10:56 am
@Keeping An Eye ON T:
http://www.financialsense.com/node/5700
Easy to rule from the ivory tower, where real world dare not intrude.
June 24th, 2011 at 10:53 am
@bubba:
I have worked outside Canada and have learned a bit about the rules but I'm not an expert. I have never terminated my legal Canadian residence.
My understanding is that you're either legally a Canadian resident for tax purposes, in which case you pay the same rates as anyone else, or you're not, in which case you are not taxable. I think there may be some sort of special case for people who are deemed resident in Canada but not in a province.
Anyway the CRA website has plenty of information for those interested.
June 24th, 2011 at 10:30 am
@space889:
>>>With regard to the “ghost city” satellite pictures, I’m actually not that impress by them as it doesn’t really prove anything. Most of the areas pictures if you pay attention are all newly constructed suburbs and the photo taken during the day.<<<
I agree, Google Earth won't tell you the whole story so take a 20 minute tour with an Australian reporter who will take you street level around China and give you some insight into their entirely fake economy.
http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/watch/id/601…
June 24th, 2011 at 10:11 am
@patriotz:
I have a family member that works overseas (Algeria ) ….my understanding is that they will only pay 20 % income tax to CRA..
Re evasion..are you serious…? you mean there are a lot of HAMsters working in homeland and not paying what they owe?
WTF is that cowardly gov't? You got a link to the apropos law on that ?
Thx
June 24th, 2011 at 10:08 am
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11164077/1/high-fr…
"Wednesday's Fed report showed Fed Chief Bernanke mystified over the lack of positive results from his policies. If he isn't confident, why should we be?"
Bernanke is mystified, what dumb prick- economics 101 you can't push with a string.
June 24th, 2011 at 10:05 am
New Listings 184
Price Changes 105
Sold Listings 72
TI:16102
More stats on my website here: http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
Follow my facebook page here:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Metro-Vancouver-Rea…
June 24th, 2011 at 8:48 am
@Anonymouse:
There are tax treaties between Canada and loads of countries to avoid double taxation. Including the US, UK etc, etc.
What that means is that if a Canadian resident (I mean deemed resident) works in country X, he will end up paying (net) whichever country taxes the most.
That's how things are supposed to work and it's not tax evasion in any sense.
But under such treaties the foreign country is responsible for reporting the income of expat Canadians to the CRA.
June 24th, 2011 at 8:42 am
@patriotz:
"Canada has always taxed residents on global income."
True, but I believe there's a tax treaty between Canada and China to prevent double taxation.
June 24th, 2011 at 8:32 am
@Van MD:
But don't the majority of investor immigrants to BC come through the provincial program rather than the federal one? Those changes seem specific to the federal program.
http://www.canadaimmigrationlaw.net/Immigration/P…
June 24th, 2011 at 8:29 am
@bubba:
Anyone who has a wife and/or dependent children in Canada is deemed a Canadian resident for tax purposes, no matter where they are actually living.
As I said, the problem is evasion.
June 24th, 2011 at 8:27 am
@patriotz:
What I meant was those HAM sters that clearly are established in BC with family registered in school, MSP etc…yet work offshore..their main contribution was buying RE and paying property taxes.
My understanding re the US is a Non Resident…whose total days in US totals over 200 days…. over say 3 years..is taxed on Global Income…….even if they didn't earn a penny in US.
Anyway..you know what I mean…time to fix the system NOW…start with ownership of RE….its a privelege not a right with priority for those who choose to live and WORK here.
June 24th, 2011 at 8:02 am
Changes in Immigration programs confirmed in MSM today:
"Changes to Economic Immigration Programs Will Help Further Reduce Backlogs and Improve Wait Times"
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/changes-e…
Breaking News: Changes Announced for Three Canadian Immigration Programs
http://www.cicnews.com/2011/06/breaking-news-anno…
Not sure how much the exact impact will be, as there has always been a sizeable backlog of applicants