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Luxury sales set to climb

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Here in Vancouver a ‘luxury home’ is one that costs more than 3 million and looks like a $300k house in Tampa. And that’s just the market segment that is set to soar this year.

The 2010 total has already been surpassed, with 384 homes over the $3-million price point sold so far in 2011, according to Macdonald Realty.

There have also been 66 homes over $5 million sold so far, and a predicted 132 over$5 million by the end of the year.

A total of 40 condos over $3 million have so far been sold, including seven over$5 million.

However, the trend partly reflects price increases that have pushed previously cheaper homes over the $3-million luxury home threshold.

The trend is your friend, get in now while prices are going up.

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rp1
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Money quote from Tsur of all people:

“It’s hard to imagine that we’ll have an ever-increasing number of people from China immigrating with an ever-increasing amount of wealth.”

Is he missing a not somewhere, because prior to this he was one of the imagineers.

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7 years 2 months ago
rp1
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Here's a blast from the past:

http://strategy.sauder.ubc.ca/lee/comm407s06/clas…

Also this:

http://www.td.com/economics/topic/housing_0705.pd…

From the date, this appears to be Canada's de-facto economic growth model. You can't really blame people for doing today what has worked continuously for over 10 years. If they go bankrupt I would find it very hard to blame them, especially because we bailed out the housing market in 2008.

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7 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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@rp1:

Take a look at that TD report and you'll see that in 2005 only Vancouver and Victoria were arguably overpriced. Now the rest of the country has moved up to those levels and Vancouver and Victoria have become simply insane.

In other words at the top of the US bubble Canada had a chance to avoid repeating history by adopting prudent policies toward mortgage financing. We all know what happened instead.

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7 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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Interesting listing from Zillow on that Tampa house:

Listing

This property has been for sale almost continuously since 2008 and current asking price is below mortgage balance (short sale). Last sale was in 2007 for $460K. Zillow estimates price/rent at 122 (they think it would rent for $2,393/mo).

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7 years 2 months ago
WFT?
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The globe has a story suggesting that Chinese buyers may be 29%. The source is a Chinese newspaper that used data from collides international. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…

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7 years 2 months ago
Anonymous
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Bob Lipply is full of real estate gems about Tampa Bay:
http://www.articlegeek.com/finance/real_estate_ar…

(late 2005)

The problem with renting a home is two-fold: you will never get back what you put into your rental property (equity and ownership), and secondly you will have restrictions imposed on you that you would not have while owning your own house.

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7 years 2 months ago
Anonymous
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If that's what 300k buys in Tampa Bay, this town is f**ked!

Some fun reading from Bob circa 2005 (No bubble in Florida, it's because everyone wants to live here, just look at the increase in tourism! We've got Disneyland! …):
http://www.articlegeek.com/finance/real_estate_ar…

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7 years 2 months ago
Devore
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Well, in case there is any question why average price in the region is going up.

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7 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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@Devore:

Average price can go up when in fact prices of all houses are going down.

Reason is the lower priced houses stop selling. This is what happened in California for the first 6 months or so of the bust. The Case-Shiller index and other data later showed that prices were actually going down.

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7 years 2 months ago
Dave
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@patriotz:

Go list a lower priced house and see what happens.

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7 years 2 months ago
paradox
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one picture is worth a thousand words…especially this one:

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/sites/default/f…

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7 years 2 months ago
Dave
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@Devore:

Stick with the HPI if you want to see where prices are at.

Funny how the tone changes when the data works against you. When averages were 'crashing' in 2008, the bears jumped all over it.

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7 years 2 months ago
Dave
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@paradox:

Except it doesn't tell the whole story.

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7 years 2 months ago
Not much of a name..
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@Dave: Oh that's right. The the other side of the story is all the booming business that people were financing with their LOC's.

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7 years 2 months ago
registered
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@12 Dave Says: "Funny how the tone changes when the data works against you. When averages were ‘crashing’ in 2008, the bears jumped all over it."

Sorry Bunky. Average, median, match-sale pairs all collapsed and inventory exploded. Love the scare quotes though. I'm not going to bother posting the 2008 graph, anyone here who wants to discuss the subject in a genuine manner knows the data, or where to find it, well by now.

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7 years 2 months ago
Devore
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@Dave: I was referring to lower mainland overall, where areas such as tri-cities and down the valley are not quite growing at 20% a year. Of course, we know it will be different in Vancouver.

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7 years 2 months ago
DaMann
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@paradox:

WOW, that's insane! Now you know where all those Porsche's and BMW's are coming from

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7 years 2 months ago
Anonymouse
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@paradox:

To where is exactly is that data related? Canada? US? Vancouver?

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7 years 2 months ago
paradox
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I thought a bit about that 154 million of electricity being stolen from BC hydro for grow ops. Going on the reverse, one lamp of 1000 watts running for 90days 12hours a day will allow to produce about 1.5 pounds of marijuana. This means the electricity cost to produce 1.5 pound will be 1kW x 1080 days x 12 cents /kWh = $129.6. Add to this 10% for ventilation then we are looking at $142.5 per 1.5 pounds of product. On a year basis that will be 142.5 x 4 = $570 for producing 6 pounds of marijuana that will retail for 2500 $/lb approx. Taking 154 million of stolen electricity on a given year, that will make for 1 621 052 pounds of marijuana production per year. Considering that each pound retails for $2 500, then the total proceeds… Read more »
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7 years 2 months ago
Patiently Waiting
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"everyone seems to be paying their bills without too much hardship"

That's impression you get when most people suffer in silence.

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7 years 2 months ago
Absinthe
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@Dave: Of course I'm going to react differently to bearish than bullish signs. We're in a bubble, for reasons that have been described to death and that are now being co-signed by the economists watching Canada. The numbers are in-flight entertainment and might eventually tell us something, but markets can remain irrational and bumber up and down for a long, long time.

I'm always going to hope that the end is near and see if it's possible in the numbers, because every day this bullshit goes on, more people and businesses leave, more of our city becomes a land bank or flipper paradise with resources going to housing, more Vancouverites live off their lines of credit, and more of the young families that do stay assume an alarming burden of debt that makes me ache for their futures.

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7 years 2 months ago
jesse
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Should we fail to aid Greece in this fateful hour, the effect will be far reaching to the west as well as the east. We must take immediate and resolute action.

Harry S. Truman, 1947

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7 years 2 months ago
vangrl
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I have to look at the only bright side in all of this; think how much more revenue our local casinos are going to bring in.

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7 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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@jesse:

The context of this remark was a civil war in Greece and the prospect of a Communist victory which would have resulted in a Soviet ally in the Mediterranean.

Greece has little strategic importance these days, except in terms of a stress point for the casino economy.

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7 years 2 months ago
Joe
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There are 3 new houses on the corner of my block in the Fraserview area. They had been on and off the market for the last year. So where are the HAM?

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7 years 2 months ago