Vancouver market data: SFH under $1 million

Love Data? Eric has been tracking a specific North Van market and shares the raw data with you here:

Dear Readers,

I have spent over a year diligently noting the numbers of listings on MLS for the lower mainland from certain price points under 1 million dollars. My initial reasoning for taking on this endeavor was to allow me to have better insight into this crazy marketplace that can be very difficult to understand. My goal is to live on the north shore with my wife in a single detached home so all of the information I have gathered refers specifically to single detached.

As you can see from my excel sheet there are several categories: From the left are statistics specific to the North Shore. A realtor sends me any SDH listing on the North Shore (Deep Cove to Lions Bay) under 1 million. I have broken that number down by price into several categories (0-500K, 500K – 600K, 600K – 700) I then have a total listings number for SDH on the north shore under 1 mil and specifically West Van houses under 1 mil. The next categories are for the lower mainland in general. These categories range from 0 -400K, 400K – 500K etc. until 900K – 1 mil. I then have a total for all the listings and a day to day change as well as a total North Shore listings as a percentage of Lower Mainland listings.

There are several inherent flaws with my statistics that you should be made aware of if you haven’t guessed them already. Firstly, the information I get for the Lower mainland homes is from MLS by taking the same snapshot (9 reverse clicks from Knight and Kingsway) every day at the same time Monday to Friday. Secondly, I only have statistics up to 1 million dollars when many of the homes in the lower mainland exceed that price point. Thirdly, when comparing year on year stats by price point you must take into consideration that since prices have moved up over that same amount of time then one must consider that fact when looking at comparisons.

The conclusion that I have drawn based on the most recent YOY numbers is that listings are WAY down. As I mentioned above, some of this is due to the increase in price but I still see a substantial decrease in listings (closing in on down 40% YOY). This is a very fascinating statistic since many of the Real Estate Board stats have shown sales decreasing at a steady pace over the past year. This leads me to believe that there is a huge shadow inventory on the market that will slowly be unleashed over the next year. I have no reason to believe that wide spread sales will pick up since any manner for people to get access to money will dry up further over the next several years (interest rates hikes, taxes, CMHC insurance regulations, consumer debt loads). When this inventory rears its head we will see supply finally begin to win the battle over demand which will send prices down where hopefully they get to more normal levels. This deleveraging will take a couple of years to fully realize.

For me this has been an exercise in watching a pot trying to reach a boil. The thing is eventually it will. But watching it certainly hasn’t sped things up.

If there is a positive response to this package of statistics then I will gladly send it to VCI every quarter or whenever it is deemed to fit well. I want to thank VCI and all of the other bear blog/forum sites that are fighting the good fight. I worry for our country over the next decade, but I think we’ll all be just fine in the end.

Best regards,

Eric

Click here to download the XLS file and please share any analysis you may do with the rest of us, either in the forum or here in the blog comments.

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lol cats

@A. Guy:

hey dumbass, if i owe a million bucks… and in a year a million bucks has the purchasing power of today's singe loonie(my income tracks inflation), i get my place for a buck.

simplified, but you get my drift

Patiently Waiting

@real_professional: Its funny how all the expensive transaction fees and taxes don't discourage people like your neighbour. Oh I'm sure he'll bitch about it, but he'll just soak it up with equity. Its so easy to tack stuff on to your mortgage and pay decades of interest on it.

A. Guy

@ lol cats

Hyperinflation is not extra inflation. Hyperinflation is inflation to the point where fiat currency is completely worthless. It is a loss of confidence in the currency in general. It's where you need a wheelbarrow of cash to buy a loaf of bread and the wheelbarrow is worth more than the cash it's carrying. This would not help real estate because people would be too busy dealing with issues such as eating and staying alive to be concerned with real estate. In a hyperinflation scenario, real estate would be worthless because no one would be, or even could be, buying.

real_professional

@Paul B

Is there anyway to find out how many of those home sales were first time buyers? At least, used the first time buyers program?

I'm thinking most of the buyers are just house shifters – my neighbour moved to langley, sold his house and moved side ways to get closer to work… no up sizing, down sizing, or speculation, just moved – If we could weed these people out of the numbers that would be good.

real_professional

Must Read: Why China is Fraud

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/china-le

@ Troll – RR gave you a beat down

@ Ravishing Rick – well played

ReadyToPop

@ lol cats

Didn't help Japanese or US real estate did it? Destroyed a lot of families along the way.

Troll

@Ravishing Rick: A theory isn't the same as a Prediction isn't the same as a Fact you git.

lol cats

@ReadyToPop:

… and printing money leads to hyper inflation. and one of the best hedges against hyper inflation… you guessed it, leveraged propery (read RE).

poor bears

ReadyToPop

Greece's banks are being hammered by a run on their reserves, leaving the country's main lenders increasingly reliant on the European Central Bank for funding.

Fears grow over Greece bank run as country seeks bail-out

Yup…print money…..wrecklessly lend money…..borrow too much money…….and force young families to

borrow their brains out just to get a roof over their head. Sick monetary policies the world over. Morality and integrity has vacated the world's towering halls of power…..RTP

Keeping An Eye On Th

Bruins in 4

4-2
3-1
6-3
4-0

Wrong Rav Rick

And no crash landing on Rennie's vagina!
@Ravishing Rick:

JR

@paulb.: It's hard for me to comprehend that there were over 200 persons stupid enough, or with so much money that it really doesn't matter, to buy in this market in one day. We are certainly World Class in one respect: Irrational Exuberance.

pricedoutfornow

Anyone know what’s going on with the New Water development at the end of Kerr St, south of Marine? Walked down there today, the sales centre was playing some funky music on loudspeakers outside and there were some salespeople inside (no customers). Where are the hordes of Chinese lined up to buy? According to the email I received from this development, sales started on May 28th. Hmm…4 days later and it’s pretty quiet. And no, there weren’t any brash sales outside pronouncing 100% sold out in 1 day! (Or any sign of any kind. Isn’t that what they usually do?) What’s the scoop?

Devore

@Anonymouse:

Wait, I thought we’d nearly exhausted the pool of greater fools, or whatever? So why would it be as easy to sell?

What can your average realtor do to sell your average house faster? Is there some fee they can pay to have their listing featured prominently on MLS?

Unless you have some exceptional, niche property, MLS and decluttering is all the marketing and sales effort needed to sell a house, whether it costs $300k or $900k.

The only way to move a property faster than its comparables is to drop the price. Doesn’t take a 5% realtor to do that.

Vulture Fun

VCI Rollercoaster is now featured on ZeroHedge.com.

paulb.

New Listings 347
Price Changes 128
Sold Listings 237

Romeo Jordan

Troll

Go suck the egg of a knat.

Your a dingbat.

Tiki

Well, that’s the thing… when you have billions of $’s, I guess you can afford to give away huge amounts of it, while still satisfying your primordial urge to accumulate useless material crap (witness: Bill’s 66 thousand – not hundred- thousand – square foot house. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Gates‘_house).

______________

Or witness Warren Buffet’s very modest home him purchased in the 1950s and still lives in today…

jesse

@Anonymouse: “So why would it be as easy to sell?”

Well it is. We only need to look at average DOM to confirm it. It really is the same bloody job it was 10 years ago; if anything, given how much data are available online, it’s arguable the value of the service offered is less. And many marginal buyers seem to agree.

But that aside, it does bring up another point, that if a market turns highly illiquid, it’s not necessarily a sure thing that commissions will decrease. If there are twice as many listings, Realtors and sellers alike are going to become familiar with the term “triage”.

Romeo Jordan

You frikin chumps. Don't worry. It (the crash) is on its way.

Relax. Yes, you McLosin – take a chill pill.

xoxox

Romeo Jordan

Anonymouse

@jesse:

"a house that sold in 2000 for $300K that now sells for $650K requires no more effort to sell "

Wait, I thought we'd nearly exhausted the pool of greater fools, or whatever? So why would it be as easy to sell?

Anonymous

@Tiki: ….I don’t know – go ask Bill Gates and Warren Buffet why they made billions only to spend the overwhelming majority of it on philanthropic causes through their foundations…….

Well, that’s the thing… when you have billions of $’s, I guess you can afford to give away huge amounts of it, while still satisfying your primordial urge to accumulate useless material crap (witness: Bill’s 66 thousand – not hundred- thousand – square foot house. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Gates'_house).

Tiki

And the rest they spent foolishly! But seriously, what’s the point of accumulating wealth if you can’t spend it on material crap?

_______

I don't know – go ask Bill Gates and Warren Buffet why they made billions only to spend the overwhelming majority of it on philanthropic causes through their foundations…

Anonymous

@Leaving: … squandered the single greatest period of wealth accumulation on useless material crap……

And the rest they spent foolishly! But seriously, what’s the point of accumulating wealth if you can't spend it on material crap?

Ravishing Rick

Cut the music!

@ Troll – if we hung you for being intelligent we'd be hanging and innocent man.

What bear theory doesn't seem plausible? Price to Income ratios are at extremes? Rental yields are low? Cap Rates suck? Inventory is building? Calgary is down 12% from its highs?…

Yeah these really dona't sound like statements of observable fact and more like unlikely X-files conspiracy theories… moron

Hit the music!

Troll

@Ravishing Rick:

This will then trigger a Vancouver riot, the collapse of real estate, and subsequently lead to a chain of events that will later be called world war III

It’s about as plausible as any other bear prediction I’ve heard.