Paul Is Back with the Data

Realtors. Some of you love them, some of you hate them and some of you are them. But there’s one thing that it seems we can all agree on: We appreciate it when a realtor takes the time to share market data with us.

One Realtor that has consistently shared market data with Metro Vancouver residents is Paul Boenisch. Paul has been sharing daily sales and listing numbers with us for a while and is now establishing a market data section on his site along with a new partner.

At the moment their market trends section is in its beginning stages, but Paul has a well established history of reliably providing data and promises to continue posting daily numbers here as well.

For more Metro Vancouver market data you may want to also check out the Realtor sites of Agent Will and Larry. For the bigger picture there’s CUER/Sauder at UBC and for great analysis check out the Economic Analyst. Lauren and Paul will be posting local real estate market data here.

Do you have a favorite source of market data that isn’t listed here? Drop it in the comments below!

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Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Paul's commitment to continue posting sales info is awesome. Much appreciated.

space889
Guest
space889

Metro Vancouver luxury (now defined as $3M+) sales expected to soar this year.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancou

Anonymouse
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Anonymouse

Was there really over 20,000 months of inventory in 2008? 😉

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca/MarketTrends.ubr

VanRant
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VanRant

PaulB. You will my agent after the real estates in Vancouver crash and burn and that will be soon.

onenangryslav2
Guest
onenangryslav2
The Vancouver Real Estate Tumor; that's what I'm going to start calling the RE "bubble" here in Lotusland. Timothy McSweeney with the goods: The word “bubble” just has an inescapably happy feel to it, conjuring up kids and parties and sudden iridescent poppings, screams of laughter, the giddy clapping of happy hands and an overall lack of consequence. That was fun; now where’s the cake? Even more so when the word gets paired with “tulip” or “South Sea.” Where could the harm possibly be in such blithe and fragrant things? Certainly not in the words themselves: exotic petals, swaying grass-skirted maidens, spheres of trembling insubstantiality. Things get a bit more pedestrian with the more recent dot-com and housing bubbles. But still, seriously, where’s the harm?… …What if, instead of that playful word bubble, we tried something a bit more accurately… Read more »
IT__Pro
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IT__Pro

@Absinthe:

Assuming you won't purchase until after a major correction, I don't think any realtor will mock you for your bearishness.

Absinthe
Member
Absinthe

@IT__Pro: This is probably true. I must admit, everything I know about realtors I learned on HGTV, and the American ones seem to think that the downturn is an aberration despite all evidence to the contrary. *g*.

EatMe
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EatMe

The newf is back! What happened out east Paul?

Anonymouse
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Anonymouse

@jesse:

"20.000 months of inventory is quite correct."

So that's meant to be a decimal place and not a comma?

Anonymouse
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Anonymouse

@Anonymouse:

Errr – decimal POINT,even.

patriotz
Member

@EatMe:

I think you mean:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNEg65rlnu4

Welcome back Paul 🙂

Aleks
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Aleks

Assuming you won’t purchase until after a major correction, I don’t think any realtor will mock you for your bearishness.

Certainly, the ones that are still in realtors after the bust won't mock you. And if you want to be a real dick, you could go to open houses, make a note of realtors who do mock you now, and then run a monthly feature called "Where are they now" in five years. Some will be selling used cars! Some will be back with their parents! And God willing, some will be in prison.

chip
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chip
Some good stuff from the Mises Institute here: "In comparison to Fannie Mae though, the prognosis of the CMHC is notably worse. For instance, at the height of the housing boom in 2007 Fannie Mae had guaranteed over $2.3 trillion in mortgages[2], nearly a quarter of the market.[3] As of 2009 the CMHC guaranteed over $900 billion in mortgages, about 90% of the market. Fannie Mae had approximately $44 billion in net assets to cover those guarantees, giving them a leverage ratio of about 50:1. The CMHC has about $9 billion in net assets to cover theirs, with the ratio working out to a staggering 100:1. To make matters even worse, 74% of the CMHC’s assets are invested in those very same mortgage-backed securities. If the Canadian housing market ever took a dive the CMHC would be bankrupt in the… Read more »
Anonymouse
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Anonymouse

@chip:

Wikipedia offers different stats, e.g. :

"CMHC is the largest Crown Corporation in terms of assets with some $26 billion in holdings as of 2008-2009."

Also, not too sure how they came up with that "90% of the market" figure.

patriotz
Member

@Anonymouse:

You are comparing apples to oranges, or maybe watermelons is putting it better.

CMHC's assets comprise money owed to it, i.e. the mortgages which it has purchased from lenders.

But the value of these mortgages is far exceeded by the mortgages which CHMC guarantees and which remain assets of the lenders. They are in fact contingent liabilities of CMHC.

Anonymouse
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Anonymouse

@patriotz:

I was referring to chip's quote which said: "The CMHC has about $9 billion in net assets"

chip
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chip

@Anonymouse:

The CMHC states net assets are 9.3 bln on page 35 of their financial results here, under Balance Sheet highlights: http://www.cmhc.ca/en/corp/about/anrecopl/upload/

As for guaranteeing $900 bln of mortgages or 90% of the market I'm guessing here but it could be they're adding the roughly $530 billion that CMHC insures to the mortgages that it buys up and securitizes. McLeans said this was about $300 billion as of 2009 and that the govt allowed them to buy $66 bln during the crisis. http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/03/23/a-mortgage-mon

Any way you look at it, in a $1 trillion mortgage market the govt — ie, we taxpayers — are by far the biggest players.

ReadyToPop
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ReadyToPop

In the wake of a housing-led financial-market meltdown in the United States, our federal government has introduced a legislative framework for oversight and regulation of the mortgage insurance market.

How to wind back CMHC’s dominance

Elvince
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Elvince

Lauren's hot.

Anonymouse
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Anonymouse

@chip:

"The CMHC states net assets are 9.3 bln on page 35 of their financial results here, under Balance Sheet highlights:"

Cool, thanks for the clarification.

900kCrackHouse
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900kCrackHouse

Paul's data doesn't indicate any form of a slowdown.

Looks like us bears will have to keep looking for the light at the end of this tunnel. We could get completely screwed by QE3, QE4… QEN if they keep coming.

paulb
Member

New Listings 238

Price Changes 126

Sold Listings 132

Total Inventory: 16074

Thanks very much for the blog post Pope! And thanks to all the readers that support me. I have always enjoyed being a part of this community and look forward to being able to provide more detailed analysis once I have completed my fire recruit training (July).

Please feel free to contact me with any real estate related questions, big or small, and check out my website: http://www.laurenandpaul.ca/ where I have all the extra stats posted. And thanks to all who "liked" my Facebook page:) http://www.facebook.com/pages/Metro-Vancouver-Rea

Laibach
Guest
Laibach

@900kCrackHouse:

Voice of reason – Vancouver: Canadian City Or Chinese Colony?

http://canadianimmigrationreform.blogspot.com/201

Absinthe
Member
Absinthe

I love the stats but I also really like that when the day I do wish to purchase comes, there’s a realtor out there who won’t mock me for having been bearish.

SourLemon
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SourLemon

@Paulb

Thanks for your help with the numbers. If it wasn't for you I wouldn't bother coming back to an often politicized, heavily biased site with a pinch of ego.

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