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Paul Is Back with the Data

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Realtors. Some of you love them, some of you hate them and some of you are them. But there’s one thing that it seems we can all agree on: We appreciate it when a realtor takes the time to share market data with us.

One Realtor that has consistently shared market data with Metro Vancouver residents is Paul Boenisch. Paul has been sharing daily sales and listing numbers with us for a while and is now establishing a market data section on his site along with a new partner.

At the moment their market trends section is in its beginning stages, but Paul has a well established history of reliably providing data and promises to continue posting daily numbers here as well.

For more Metro Vancouver market data you may want to also check out the Realtor sites of Agent Will and Larry. For the bigger picture there’s CUER/Sauder at UBC and for great analysis check out the Economic Analyst. Lauren and Paul will be posting local real estate market data here.

Do you have a favorite source of market data that isn’t listed here? Drop it in the comments below!

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fixie guy

33 painted turtle Says: "Or are they just speculating?"

Yes. Contrary to the popular notion that Mainland new money is a flood eastern Buffetts, they're naive investors from a communist background throwing easy cash (how many have succeeded in establishing dominant industries under Western safety, labour and manufacturing regulations?) at traditional assets. I maintain that, courtesy of Hong Kong's repatriation, Vancouver never fully corrected from the mini-bubble of the early Nineties. Coupled with this asset bubble and a tragic inability for most people to clearly differentiate between real and nominal values, Vancouver as an investment must appear as safe and sure as mother's milk. When these amateur investors start seeing their life savings 'incomprehensibly' cleaned out in the inevitable correction, watch out.

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patriotz

@ReadyToPop:

I'm not knocking your intentions, just pointing out that the column is an opinion piece with an agenda, not a news report.

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Laibach

@painted turtle:

It is a mob mentality, they go like sheeps together and BC is already their country. I don't think they would be much comfortable in NB.

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painted turtle

Why would HAM by a 2 bedroom condo at UBC for 1.5 million $ when they could buy a "castle" with a beach for $429 000?

Is this the Vancouver weather? Or are they just speculating?

http://www.REALTOR.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…

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Best place on meth

June numbers updated in the forum.

New Listings to date 4045, projected 5932

Sales to date 2231, projected 3272

Sell/list 55% – as balanced as Ravishing Rick/Li Ka Chings split personality.

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ReadyToPop

That article talks about some of the contents of the budget implementation bill that may be useful to the folks here. That's why I posted it….RTP

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Extremely rich Van h

@IPA ale:

Those bears'asshole have so been enlarged that a bus can pass;each wrong forcast will add an inch in diameter.

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Best place on meth

@paulb:

Mr. B, congratulations on your new partnership and good luck with your future endeavors in real estate and firefighting.

And thanks again for all you've done for us and continue to do for us on this website as well as your own.

Cheers!

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IPA ale

Holy fuck bears…how many years are you going to wait???

You must all be students, bachelors, childless couples, or retires because nobody can resist the social, and the feminine, pressure for so long.

Here is to QE3 – to another 10 years of gains!

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patriotz

@ReadyToPop:

The article is complete garbage. It proposes that CMHC become a "mortgage reinsurer", which means that rather issuing insurance directly it would hold the bag for "private" insurers rather like the government does for Genworth today.

It that sounds a lot like "privatize profits, socialize losses", that's because it is.

Here's a simple solution – just get the government the hell out of the mortgage business altogether, and let private capital (but not the banks, which the government would have to rescue) take any risk it wants at any price it wants.

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SourLemon

Thanks for your help with the numbers. If it wasn't for you I wouldn't bother coming back to an often politicized, heavily biased site with a pinch of ego.

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Laibach

@900kCrackHouse:

Voice of reason – Vancouver: Canadian City Or Chinese Colony?

http://canadianimmigrationreform.blogspot.com/201…

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paulb

New Listings 238

Price Changes 126

Sold Listings 132

Total Inventory: 16074

Thanks very much for the blog post Pope! And thanks to all the readers that support me. I have always enjoyed being a part of this community and look forward to being able to provide more detailed analysis once I have completed my fire recruit training (July).

Please feel free to contact me with any real estate related questions, big or small, and check out my website: http://www.laurenandpaul.ca/ where I have all the extra stats posted. And thanks to all who "liked" my Facebook page:) http://www.facebook.com/pages/Metro-Vancouver-Rea…

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900kCrackHouse

Paul's data doesn't indicate any form of a slowdown.

Looks like us bears will have to keep looking for the light at the end of this tunnel. We could get completely screwed by QE3, QE4… QEN if they keep coming.

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Anonymouse

@chip:

"The CMHC states net assets are 9.3 bln on page 35 of their financial results here, under Balance Sheet highlights:"

Cool, thanks for the clarification.

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Elvince

Lauren's hot.

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ReadyToPop

In the wake of a housing-led financial-market meltdown in the United States, our federal government has introduced a legislative framework for oversight and regulation of the mortgage insurance market.

How to wind back CMHC’s dominance

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chip

@Anonymouse:

The CMHC states net assets are 9.3 bln on page 35 of their financial results here, under Balance Sheet highlights: http://www.cmhc.ca/en/corp/about/anrecopl/upload/…

As for guaranteeing $900 bln of mortgages or 90% of the market I'm guessing here but it could be they're adding the roughly $530 billion that CMHC insures to the mortgages that it buys up and securitizes. McLeans said this was about $300 billion as of 2009 and that the govt allowed them to buy $66 bln during the crisis. http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/03/23/a-mortgage-mon…

Any way you look at it, in a $1 trillion mortgage market the govt — ie, we taxpayers — are by far the biggest players.

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Anonymouse

@patriotz:

I was referring to chip's quote which said: "The CMHC has about $9 billion in net assets"

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patriotz

@Anonymouse:

You are comparing apples to oranges, or maybe watermelons is putting it better.

CMHC's assets comprise money owed to it, i.e. the mortgages which it has purchased from lenders.

But the value of these mortgages is far exceeded by the mortgages which CHMC guarantees and which remain assets of the lenders. They are in fact contingent liabilities of CMHC.

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Anonymouse

@chip:

Wikipedia offers different stats, e.g. :

"CMHC is the largest Crown Corporation in terms of assets with some $26 billion in holdings as of 2008-2009."

Also, not too sure how they came up with that "90% of the market" figure.

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chip

Some good stuff from the Mises Institute here: "In comparison to Fannie Mae though, the prognosis of the CMHC is notably worse. For instance, at the height of the housing boom in 2007 Fannie Mae had guaranteed over $2.3 trillion in mortgages[2], nearly a quarter of the market.[3] As of 2009 the CMHC guaranteed over $900 billion in mortgages, about 90% of the market. Fannie Mae had approximately $44 billion in net assets to cover those guarantees, giving them a leverage ratio of about 50:1. The CMHC has about $9 billion in net assets to cover theirs, with the ratio working out to a staggering 100:1. To make matters even worse, 74% of the CMHC’s assets are invested in those very same mortgage-backed securities. If the Canadian housing market ever took a dive the CMHC would be bankrupt in the… Read more »

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Aleks

Assuming you won’t purchase until after a major correction, I don’t think any realtor will mock you for your bearishness.

Certainly, the ones that are still in realtors after the bust won't mock you. And if you want to be a real dick, you could go to open houses, make a note of realtors who do mock you now, and then run a monthly feature called "Where are they now" in five years. Some will be selling used cars! Some will be back with their parents! And God willing, some will be in prison.

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patriotz

@EatMe:

I think you mean:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNEg65rlnu4

Welcome back Paul 🙂

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Anonymouse

@Anonymouse:

Errr – decimal POINT,even.

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