Mish’s foreword to a piece at Bloomberg –
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/07/canada-gdp-declines-3-largest-drop-in.html
58 Comments
[…] I never saw them above 140.” [More building since then but, still, 200 seems a lot. -ed.] – painted turtle at vancouvercondo.info 1 Aug 2011 5:20pm — “This morning I woke up before my alarm in a bit of a panic attack. After having my […]
<a>funny
just had to laugh and pass this on. real-estate will in a massive decline by x-mas!
@McLovin: As much as I hope you're correct, one data point does not a trend make. Time travel me to October and connect a few more points in the same direction and I'll believe it.
Inventory should crack 17000 this month, and I suspect we'll see 22,000 plus this fall, it's going to be a heck of a ride…down.
McLosin, Romeo Jordan told you this would happen – I do hope that you followed his/her counsel.
My gosh, you are one dumb cookie.
"Vancouver’s average detached price landed another decline in July at $1,133,357, down from the previous all time high in May of $1,223,421"
What happened? Has the HAM money flowing into Vancouver's high end real estate slowing down?
From Larry's site. The top is in!
Detached
Vancouver’s average detached price landed another decline in July at $1,133,357, down from the previous all time high in May of $1,223,421.
(Say it quick that's nearly $100K or nearing double digits in two months!)
Attached
Attached average prices in July did a back flip from June’s $554,763 with a solid landing in July at $569,042.
Apartment
Apartment’s average price flip was not as dramatic but it settled on the beam up from June’s $445,981 to July’s $450,527.
@patriotz:
True, but I think the RE speculation part of the decision is secondary to getting their money out of China.
Vancouver is chosen because it's relatively close, has a large resident Chinese population, free-at-use health care should they opt for residency and, until Fat Lai got deported, no risk of being forced to return.
I would hazard a guess that this won't change much even when Vancouver's market starts to correct.
@vreaa:
The ROI on posting stats is quite clear, I don't know many realtors, but I know of Paul B, Will, and Larry for that reason alone. How many sales that translates into I don't know, but consider that two of the three have been featured on major news segments about the vancouver market simply because people know they post statistics.
Agent Will leaving town and Larry stops posting numbers (citing as a reason that 'return on investment' for that activity is too low).
Chances are this is complete co-incidence, granted.
Can anybody (including Will himself) shed any light as to why Will is leaving?
Well, it's the 1st of the month again – the day Larry always posts the average prices for the previous month but this time he didn't.
So I have to ask all of the regulars here: whose turn was it to send him the cheque this time?
@chip:
If they think that absurdly priced Vancouver RE is a "safe haven", they are assuming that prices will go up (or at least not go down), which means they are speculators, which was the original point.
I'm not sure buying a cheaper property is the point for these buyers, so much as finding a safe haven for x million dollars.
Listings at UBC reached 200!!!
In 2008-2009, I never saw them above 140.
"I HAVE A FULLY ASSUMABLE MORTGAGE WITH TD CANADA TRUST AT 2.2% INTEREST FOR 35 YEARS."
Bwah ha ha. No mortgage is assumable at 100% LTV. New owner means new CMHC insurance which means new qualification which means at least 5% down.
And someone had better remind Mr. Tooth Fairy that the mortgage is not "2.2% interest for 35 years" either, whether he sells the place or not.
Exactly why I don't understand why these supposed Chinese people are so thick that they don't realize there's a world of properties available for sale in BC-for a quarter of the cost. Not smart. But I guess this proves the point that these mythical rich Chinese people are simply speculators who follow the money. And one day they will be gone.
@chip:
Wealth has always been concentrated in the hands of a relative few, because it is the relative few that are the inventors, tinkerers and wealth producers.
The main reason why wealth has always been in the hands of a relative few in affluent rich countries is simply that people get richer as they get older. Today's penniless university student is tomorrow's high tech millionaire, rich doctor, civil servant with a fat pension, or simply someone who inherited a bundle from his parents.
The real problem is not that wealth is in the hands of the few, but that those few are getting fewer, i.e. the first three examples above are getting smaller compared to the fourth. Or to put it another way, hereditary wealth and financial game playing are gaining at the expense of labour and enterprise.
@Devore:
>>>Seems like half the city is for sale, including the posh wineries and lake-side properties.<<<
Now if I had $1.6 million to spend on a place to live, would I choose a shitty little dump on the west side or this? http://www.mls.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId…
Please pass me the free crack pipe so I can start house hunting in Dunbar.
Details to secret plan to keep Vancouver real estate market levitating finally released: free crack pipes to be given out. Of course, no free crack yet, gotta save some ammo for later.
I was in the Okanagan area this weekend, and you really have to see this first hand to appreciate. Seems like half the city is for sale, including the posh wineries and lake-side properties. A bunch of completed condo buildings poking out of the landscape, "now selling!"
@Myself
I take back my last statement. Throbbing headache is affecting my comprehension.
I AM WILLING TO GIVE THIS CONDO AWAY FOR $80,000.00 LESS THAN IT IS WORTH.
I take back everything I ever said about speculators. I used to think they were lazy, greedy, selfish parasites, but now I see they truly have the best interests of their fellow citizens at heart. This guy could get 80k more than he's asking, but he's altruistic enough to selflessly give that large sum to a complete stranger. What a guy.
bubbly: the issue isn't whether taxes are fair, appropriate or well spent, but whether they can be raised to bail out the economy. In the USA they can. Ergo, no default.
That was Garth's point. This article spells it out more clearly:
Still can't give it away, he's been at it since Spring now.
I AM WILLING TO GIVE THIS CONDO AWAY FOR $80,000.00 LESS THAN IT IS WORTH. (ORIGINAL PRICE $359,000.00 PLUS 12% HST)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/2485456…
Five year-old condo building goes up like a torch.