Mortgage rates going up (again)

Most of the major banks have announced mortgage rate increases, 5 year posted rate is now at 5.54%. That’s the one you have to get qualified on right?

Most other special and fixed rates at the banks were also going up between 0.10 and 0.15 percentage points. Fixed-rate mortgage rates are affected by the cost of borrowing in the bond market, where banks finance their home loan lending.

From the Globe and Mail.

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Same Same
Guest
Same Same

Ho Hum…

Another dinky increase, which will be taken away within a few weeks…

Geez bears, you would have thought that by now you would have recognized the "trend" of a few points up and then a few points back, for a trend of being flat for THREE years now…

Of course in this case, the "trend is not your friend" as the dipshit Romeo used to say…

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

Off-topic:

Anyone know what Genworth Financial does in Canada, in terms of providing mortgage insurance (as a private insurer rather than CMHC?) My brother in Calgary was sucked into going to a presentation by http://www.attainablehomescalgary.ca which, with the support of the city, is getting people into condos and townhomes for essentially $2000 down. The mortgages are insured by Genworth, rather than CMHC (good news for taxpayers!) Anyway, he's not interested in the deal since I pointed out "What kind of neighbours will you end up with if they can only fork over $2000 to buy a home?" along with the fact that the places they are promoting are not in the best area, and they're old (30 year old townhouses).

space889
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space889

@space889: Arrr….damn, wrong link posted. Here is the correct one!

Sorry!

http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Column+

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@space889:

What a pitiful attempt at cheerleading buy the Sun, right from point #1.

The "writer" tries to compare our population to every city in the world and in the same breath compares the size of our port when many of those cities aren't even coastal.

>>>the Chinese still don’t even think of Vancouver as a city yet, much less a world class city!<<<

Even in Chinese cities half the people living in them still crap in a dirt hole so I'm not too concerned with what they think a world class city is.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Dave:

"…in five years, you will be five years older."

Did you do that math on that yourself Dave?

Yes, we'll be 5 years older, and by my math I'll be close to $100K richer by renting vs. owning.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Dave:

Yes Dave, we've been at rock bottom emergency interest rates for 2.5 years since the crisis.

So has the U.S., even lower I might add.

Dave
Member

@Anonymous:

Sounds like bad math.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Dave:

Admittedly the place I would buy is nicer than the condo I'm currently renting, but with flat prices (as you predict) I'm saving approx $2000 per month by standing pat.

victoria
Member
victoria

If you have to ask yourself all the time whether or not Vancouver is a World Class City then it is not.

(I have lived in Paris, London and spent a lot of time in NY.)

Not much of a name..
Guest
Not much of a name..

Dave, I'm still confused by your definition of a flat market. So in your head, only the starting and finishing points matter. What happens in the in between are of no importance to you? I guess when I go mountain biking on the North Shore mountains my ride is flat since I finish at the same elevation as where I started.

N
Guest
N

The charm of Vancouver is that it is not a major city. That's why it is unhurried and not crowded and cheap here (as long as one rents) compared to big cities like New York or Paris. I have no idea what "world class" means, but I am very glad that Vancouver is small and nothing of importance happens here.

Derp Derp
Guest
Derp Derp

@WS

my family was travelling through the US at one point in about 1988 – we had British Columbia plates on our van..

we were waiting to load onto a ferry in Michigan and an American asked us: "How'd you get your van over from England??"

TRUE STORY

"if you have to ask if you're world class.. you're not."

let's all get over ourselves, vancouver, we're nice when we're not being douchey, and thats about it. stop trying to be millionaires.

curious lurker
Member
curious lurker

@Not much of a name…:

Dave's definitions are all anti-sense.

He says in a flat market, he sees higher listings and lower sales.

He also believes that there was a correction in 2008-2009, and that the market has been flat since the correction. (30% gains in 2 years).

Then more recently he erased the correction and claimed that since we are about 10% higher than the previous top, the market has been flat.

Then he accuses me of misunderstanding his statements.

He also believes he is 'winning' the debates on this forum. lol.

This market is anything but 'normal' Dave.

FiveNeatGuys
Guest
FiveNeatGuys

@Not much of a name…:

$120k is 'close to' $100k.

More so than the Vancouver market has ever been flat anyways.

patriotz
Member
@pricedoutfornow: Genworth is about as much a "private insurer" as Fannie and Freddie south of the border. Its obligations are 90% guaranteed by the GoC. As far as "attainable homes Calgary" goes, one can see just from your posting that it's a government-sponsored scheme to unload product that won't sell at the margins developers want. Remember there is an ongoing RE bust in Calgary as prices peaked in 2007 and have never recovered. I've got a better idea for unloading developer inventory and getting people into sustainable home ownership – drop the prices. Disappointing to see Nenshi shilling for this as he seems quite sensible in other respects. What will happen of course is that the Calgary bust will continue and interest rates will inevitably go up, resulting in foreclosures and bankruptcy for the "homeowners" and local and Federal governments… Read more »
Derp Derp
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Derp Derp

@curious lurker:

dave is winning,

he saves money by not taking his meds.

Runawayscreaming
Guest
Runawayscreaming
Re; The port that supposedly makes Vancouver "World Class". http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Column+… The Port of Vancouver does not make Vancouver "World Class". Full container ships arrive in Vancouver with Chinese manufactured goods to destroy the economy of eastern Canada. Empty containers go back to China. The ships are not even serviced in Vancouver. All they do in Vancouver is fill up on cheap fuel. The servicing, maintenance and construction of the ships is all done in China and Korea. Loading and unloading of container ships is highly mechanized and does not require very many people. The gantry cranes and other container handling equipment are made in Asia. The transportation of containers in and out of the Port of Vancouver is done by non-union Punjabi migrants working for ultra-low piecework rates. Their field of expertise is mainly causing expensive container truck crashes in… Read more »
chip
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chip

If I was to pick a city of the same stature as Vancouver, with many of the same attributes, it would be Melbourne.

Now if you Google 'Melbourne World Class' your top link is a roofing repair company. If you do the same for 'Vancouver World Class' you get a lot of links asking if we're world class.

Dave
Member
@curious lurker: There's no debate. My record speaks for itself. There is nothing to debate or argue. I was very specific in my expectations in the past and they have come true to date, with the exception of higher prices than late Summer 2010. Once the correction started, I predicted it wouldn't exceed 20%. I predicted the correction would not take very long. I predicted the recovery and I predicted prices would continue to go up past the prior peak and then come back down again. This all turned out to be correct. I also predicted prices would not drop below the 2009 low, nor surpass the 2010 high. On this, I was incorrect because prices kept going up. I still call this a flat market because prices are not very different from three years ago. I think we are… Read more »
curious lurker
Member
curious lurker
@Dave: I don’t know what specifically you take exception to. This market is not flat. period. It's speculative. The drop in the 'correction' of 2008-2009, and the rise since then have slopes that are far too severe to qualify for a flat/stable market. Your definitions are so broad that were real estate to decline in value by 25% in the next year, you would still claim that the market was 'flat' because it's still in the range of 2009-2010 prices. Not only that, but the rise in benchmark (let's not even look at averages) is at a pace that exceeds the supposed 'bull market' from 2000-2008. So even though the ups and downs are severe, you are claiming that the market is flat. All you do is repeat anti-sense statements day after day. I would classify 2008-2009 as a bear… Read more »
curious lurker
Member
curious lurker

whoops. typo for my formatting issues.

Summary for Dave the weak-minded:

The market isn't flat. flat markets don't have up and down crazy things like we've had in the last 3 years.

Our housing market is volatile. (This would be the opposite of flat)

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
@patriotz: Interesting, I didn't know that about Genworth. Too bad for taxpayers. I agree, the city is just trying to unload unsellable condos/townhouses to people who really, should be renting something equivalent to our BC Housing properties (for low income people). It seems to me the city (or province) is shirking its responsibility of providing affordable housing by offering people the opportunity to "buy" rather than rent. Now, the city/province gets a good deal because it no longer has to pay to maintain these crappy buildings. Instead, the "owner" has to pay all the upkeep and maintenance and property taxes. And you're right about unloading the properties-my brother somehow found out that these townhouses were previously for sale at a higher price and sat unsold for a long time, until the city bought the lot of them. Too bad a… Read more »
Nostra
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Nostra

Dave is absolutely correct in his delineation of his predictions.

I have followed this blog for years, and I have never read such fluff from so many bears who have been the worst armchair analysts. Dave's last post is so succinct – he has been right, while all the investment geniuses here have been wrong so long it must hurt.

I think you you need to keep these posts from Dave, because I guarantee you in a few years, you will all be reflecting on them AGAIN and realizing how wrong you folks were.

FiveNeatGuys
Guest
FiveNeatGuys

Don't listen to the naysayers.

The Vancouver Real Estate Market has been absolutely stable and flat for decades:

http://vancouvercondo.info/coaster

patriotz
Member

@Nostra:

Dave’s last post is so succinct – he has been right, while all the investment geniuses here have been wrong so long it must hurt.

Being right in investing means making money, and the only way someone who has bought RE since 2005 can make money is by selling.

So when has Dave advised anyone to sell? And remember – if prices simply stay flat anyone whose ownership costs exceed renting will keep losing more and more money to the point they will not come out ahead even they do sell.

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