Mortgage rates going up (again)
Most of the major banks have announced mortgage rate increases, 5 year posted rate is now at 5.54%. That’s the one you have to get qualified on right?
Most other special and fixed rates at the banks were also going up between 0.10 and 0.15 percentage points. Fixed-rate mortgage rates are affected by the cost of borrowing in the bond market, where banks finance their home loan lending.
From the Globe and Mail.
July 5th, 2011 at 11:49 pm 1
Ho Hum…
Another dinky increase, which will be taken away within a few weeks…
Geez bears, you would have thought that by now you would have recognized the "trend" of a few points up and then a few points back, for a trend of being flat for THREE years now…
Of course in this case, the "trend is not your friend" as the dipshit Romeo used to say…
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:31 am 2
Off-topic:
Anyone know what Genworth Financial does in Canada, in terms of providing mortgage insurance (as a private insurer rather than CMHC?) My brother in Calgary was sucked into going to a presentation by http://www.attainablehomescalgary.ca which, with the support of the city, is getting people into condos and townhomes for essentially $2000 down. The mortgages are insured by Genworth, rather than CMHC (good news for taxpayers!) Anyway, he's not interested in the deal since I pointed out "What kind of neighbours will you end up with if they can only fork over $2000 to buy a home?" along with the fact that the places they are promoting are not in the best area, and they're old (30 year old townhouses).
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:53 am 3
@space889: Arrr….damn, wrong link posted. Here is the correct one!
Sorry!
http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Column+…
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:03 am 4
@space889:
What a pitiful attempt at cheerleading buy the Sun, right from point #1.
The "writer" tries to compare our population to every city in the world and in the same breath compares the size of our port when many of those cities aren't even coastal.
>>>the Chinese still don’t even think of Vancouver as a city yet, much less a world class city!<<<
Even in Chinese cities half the people living in them still crap in a dirt hole so I'm not too concerned with what they think a world class city is.
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:04 am 5
@Dave:
"…in five years, you will be five years older."
Did you do that math on that yourself Dave?
Yes, we'll be 5 years older, and by my math I'll be close to $100K richer by renting vs. owning.
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:17 am 6
@Dave:
Yes Dave, we've been at rock bottom emergency interest rates for 2.5 years since the crisis.
So has the U.S., even lower I might add.
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:19 am 7
@Anonymous:
Sounds like bad math.
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:30 am 8
@Dave:
Admittedly the place I would buy is nicer than the condo I'm currently renting, but with flat prices (as you predict) I'm saving approx $2000 per month by standing pat.
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:31 am 9
If you have to ask yourself all the time whether or not Vancouver is a World Class City then it is not.
(I have lived in Paris, London and spent a lot of time in NY.)
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:47 am 10
Dave, I'm still confused by your definition of a flat market. So in your head, only the starting and finishing points matter. What happens in the in between are of no importance to you? I guess when I go mountain biking on the North Shore mountains my ride is flat since I finish at the same elevation as where I started.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:12 am 11
The charm of Vancouver is that it is not a major city. That's why it is unhurried and not crowded and cheap here (as long as one rents) compared to big cities like New York or Paris. I have no idea what "world class" means, but I am very glad that Vancouver is small and nothing of importance happens here.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:12 am 12
@WS
my family was travelling through the US at one point in about 1988 – we had British Columbia plates on our van..
we were waiting to load onto a ferry in Michigan and an American asked us: "How'd you get your van over from England??"
TRUE STORY
"if you have to ask if you're world class.. you're not."
let's all get over ourselves, vancouver, we're nice when we're not being douchey, and thats about it. stop trying to be millionaires.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:16 am 13
@Not much of a name…:
Dave's definitions are all anti-sense.
He says in a flat market, he sees higher listings and lower sales.
He also believes that there was a correction in 2008-2009, and that the market has been flat since the correction. (30% gains in 2 years).
Then more recently he erased the correction and claimed that since we are about 10% higher than the previous top, the market has been flat.
Then he accuses me of misunderstanding his statements.
He also believes he is 'winning' the debates on this forum. lol.
This market is anything but 'normal' Dave.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:16 am 14
@Not much of a name…:
$120k is 'close to' $100k.
More so than the Vancouver market has ever been flat anyways.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:19 am 15
@pricedoutfornow:
Genworth is about as much a "private insurer" as Fannie and Freddie south of the border. Its obligations are 90% guaranteed by the GoC.
As far as "attainable homes Calgary" goes, one can see just from your posting that it's a government-sponsored scheme to unload product that won't sell at the margins developers want. Remember there is an ongoing RE bust in Calgary as prices peaked in 2007 and have never recovered.
I've got a better idea for unloading developer inventory and getting people into sustainable home ownership – drop the prices.
Disappointing to see Nenshi shilling for this as he seems quite sensible in other respects. What will happen of course is that the Calgary bust will continue and interest rates will inevitably go up, resulting in foreclosures and bankruptcy for the "homeowners" and local and Federal governments holding the bag.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:20 am 16
@curious lurker:
dave is winning,
he saves money by not taking his meds.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:24 am 17
Re; The port that supposedly makes Vancouver "World Class".
http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Column+…
The Port of Vancouver does not make Vancouver "World Class". Full container ships arrive in Vancouver with Chinese manufactured goods to destroy the economy of eastern Canada. Empty containers go back to China. The ships are not even serviced in Vancouver. All they do in Vancouver is fill up on cheap fuel. The servicing, maintenance and construction of the ships is all done in China and Korea.
Loading and unloading of container ships is highly mechanized and does not require very many people. The gantry cranes and other container handling equipment are made in Asia. The transportation of containers in and out of the Port of Vancouver is done by non-union Punjabi migrants working for ultra-low piecework rates. Their field of expertise is mainly causing expensive container truck crashes in Vancouver and elsewhere.
The cruise ship business is gradually abandoning the Port of Vancouver, partly because Vancouver has lost its appeal as a tourist destination. Vancouver is also about to become a major loading point for tarsand oil bound for China. It takes 4 people to load a tarsand ship. Tarsand oil spills in BC waters will destroy other, more valuable, sectors of the BC economy that contribute a far greater number of jobs.
I think the writer has misunderstood the term "World Class".
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:27 am 18
If I was to pick a city of the same stature as Vancouver, with many of the same attributes, it would be Melbourne.
Now if you Google 'Melbourne World Class' your top link is a roofing repair company. If you do the same for 'Vancouver World Class' you get a lot of links asking if we're world class.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:35 am 19
@curious lurker:
There's no debate. My record speaks for itself. There is nothing to debate or argue. I was very specific in my expectations in the past and they have come true to date, with the exception of higher prices than late Summer 2010.
Once the correction started, I predicted it wouldn't exceed 20%. I predicted the correction would not take very long. I predicted the recovery and I predicted prices would continue to go up past the prior peak and then come back down again. This all turned out to be correct. I also predicted prices would not drop below the 2009 low, nor surpass the 2010 high. On this, I was incorrect because prices kept going up.
I still call this a flat market because prices are not very different from three years ago. I think we are in for a couple more rounds of bumps, but in hindsight, the market will be within the 2009/2010 range.
I don't know what specifically you take exception to.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:49 am 20
@Dave:
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:53 am 21
whoops. typo for my formatting issues.
Summary for Dave the weak-minded:
The market isn't flat. flat markets don't have up and down crazy things like we've had in the last 3 years.
Our housing market is volatile. (This would be the opposite of flat)
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:54 am 22
@patriotz:
Interesting, I didn't know that about Genworth. Too bad for taxpayers. I agree, the city is just trying to unload unsellable condos/townhouses to people who really, should be renting something equivalent to our BC Housing properties (for low income people). It seems to me the city (or province) is shirking its responsibility of providing affordable housing by offering people the opportunity to "buy" rather than rent. Now, the city/province gets a good deal because it no longer has to pay to maintain these crappy buildings. Instead, the "owner" has to pay all the upkeep and maintenance and property taxes.
And you're right about unloading the properties-my brother somehow found out that these townhouses were previously for sale at a higher price and sat unsold for a long time, until the city bought the lot of them. Too bad a friend of his fell for the deal. Another note-the city HAS to buy the properties back when the owner decides to sell. I pointed out that with no open market for these properties, the city won't be obligated to buy them back for a profit (if there ever would be one). I bet a lot of these people, who think they are going to make a real profit on these properties, are in for a nasty surprise when the city ends up writing them a cheque for less than what they paid.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:58 am 23
Dave is absolutely correct in his delineation of his predictions.
I have followed this blog for years, and I have never read such fluff from so many bears who have been the worst armchair analysts. Dave's last post is so succinct – he has been right, while all the investment geniuses here have been wrong so long it must hurt.
I think you you need to keep these posts from Dave, because I guarantee you in a few years, you will all be reflecting on them AGAIN and realizing how wrong you folks were.
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July 6th, 2011 at 3:02 am 24
Don't listen to the naysayers.
The Vancouver Real Estate Market has been absolutely stable and flat for decades:
http://vancouvercondo.info/coaster
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July 6th, 2011 at 3:14 am 25
@Nostra:
Being right in investing means making money, and the only way someone who has bought RE since 2005 can make money is by selling.
So when has Dave advised anyone to sell? And remember – if prices simply stay flat anyone whose ownership costs exceed renting will keep losing more and more money to the point they will not come out ahead even they do sell.
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July 6th, 2011 at 3:35 am 26
@curious lurker:
The range of prices that I call a flat market is about 20%. Take the mid-point and I am basically saying it's +/- 10%. If you want to call that volatile, then fine. I don't care what words you attach to it because the numbers speak for themselves.
I agree with you that values have gotten ahead of themselves and I think price should moderate. But I doubt it will fall below 2009 lows.
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July 6th, 2011 at 3:46 am 27
@chip:
Melbourne is twice the size of Vancouver and closer to Toronto in stature.
Vancouver is on par with Denver except that we have that fabulous port to bring Chinese junk in and send resources out.
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July 6th, 2011 at 3:55 am 28
@patriotz:
I don't advocate buying and selling real estate like a stock. You buy real estate to hold it and build up an asset.
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:00 am 29
@Dave:
http://www.rebgv.org/housing-price-index?region=a…
The chart at the bottom of that page shows residential HPI price from 2008 Dec of 206 to May of 2011 at 265.
that's an increase of 29%.
So by your exact definition this market is not flat. Even if you try to choose a midpoint in the range that we are looking at. The variation far exceeds +/- 10%, and we're using HPI. Averages are WAY farther out of the range.
Glad we can all agree now that you are wrong.
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:04 am 30
this blog is soo boring !
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:09 am 31
"The range of prices that I call a flat market is about 20%. Take the mid-point and I am basically saying it’s +/- 10%."
You are not even right by your own twisted defintion of 'flat'. The current high is greater than 20% higher than the 2009 low, and the 'fluctuations' thus exceed 10%.
"You buy real estate to hold it and build up an asset."
Assets only have monetary value if you sell them.
"I predicted…I predicted…I predicted…etc"
Yes, Dave. You have shown you are excellent at predicted the past and then claiming your prescience after the fact. Well done, Captain Hindsight.
In understanding Dave's posts, I find it helpful to remember the following quote:
"Jerry, just remember, it's not a lie if you believe it"
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:22 am 32
@Anonymous:
That is wrong. Really wrong.
But don't feel too bad, what Dave said goes beyond wrong, it's nonsensical.
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:26 am 33
Instead of obsessing about semantics about a 'flat' market, why don't you define 'correction'? Does what happened in 2008-09 even qualify as such? Prices only came down for a few months and then bounced back up. So affordability and fundamentals didn't improve except for this small window. If you count that as a correction, then I suppose you could count any month where prices are down as a 'correction', which would make the term completely useless since then you're really talking about volatility or noise.
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:29 am 34
@Anonymous: You're not suggesting that RE is a non-yielding asset are you?
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:44 am 35
@Anonymous: Oh, confusing, because you used the term in your sentence. Maybe stop while you're behind.
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:46 am 36
@Not much of a name…:
How do ya figure? Or are you talking about capital gains/losses? Different things chief.
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:51 am 37
Mortgages are like standards…..
Banks up their's …… so UP YOURS
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:54 am 38
Do you think Helicopter Ben and CAM Good are the same?
Reptilian shape shifters…when stuck half way they look like Bob Rennie ?
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:58 am 39
#2 Dave says:
"The only thing that is going to change is that in five years, you will be five years older."
Hey Dave, you could be underestimating the effects of everyone aging 5 years during such a pivotal demographic period. Please see Exhibit A below.
http://i.imgur.com/KM3o6.jpg
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July 6th, 2011 at 5:15 am 40
The dramatic change in the last few years is that SFH have dramatically outperformed condos. In three years, SFH skyrocketed 17.8% while condo apartments limped along at just 4.2%.
So if we continue in Dave's dream scenario, we'll have a growing price difference between SFH and condos. This means we FTB bears are better off as renters, and have been for many years now.
Any condo owner, who bought in 2008 and tried to sell now is in for a rude surprise. After years of sacrifice, they'll discover they actually lost money once they pay that 6% commission to a realtard. God help them if they try to break a closed mortgage and move elsewhere in the country (bend over, incoming)…I've heard this sob story once…painful.
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July 6th, 2011 at 5:21 am 41
@Troll:
>>>why don’t you define ‘correction’? Does what happened in 2008-09 even qualify as such?<<<
No, it wasn't. A real correction is long term.
2008 might have and probably would have been a correction had the government not dropped interest rates down to all time lows.
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July 6th, 2011 at 6:03 am 42
"Vancouver (and Canada) has a massive inferiority complex."
I second that. I find it quite pathetic and the more I stay away the more obvious it is, further, having been a part of this 'validate me' culture that is Vancouver, I understand cause I used to be like everybody else.
When the riot was on the front page of 20 minutes were, my family seemed worried what the 'world' would think .. the world already pretty much already forgot, further, out here, I don't think they really even were aware anyway. I say, who cares anyway.
For me, the quality of life here in Switzerland is steller and exceeding Vancouver in most ways. Moving to a place like Switzerland that has merely good weather really makes you understand how shit Vancouver weather is.
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July 6th, 2011 at 6:22 am 43
@Dave: "Five year rates have been flat and will likely remain so for many years to come"
Yeah because it looks like governments are pursuing austerity at a time when unemployment is high. I agree with you that long rates aren't looking to go up substantially in the near term. But some bears' time horizons are long and can wait another 5-10 years, if not longer, because they are emotionally indifferent about ownership.
People are coming up with justification why there hasn't been a "correction" yet and blame low interest rates, the logical conclusion being that if rates are higher prices will fall. Well yes but I can think of three historical examples where perpetually low rates were no savior for house prices. I know it boggles the mind how that's even possible.
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July 6th, 2011 at 6:44 am 44
@swissmacchiato:
"I say, who cares anyway."
Anybody who understands how vital tourism is to Vancouver's economy.
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July 6th, 2011 at 7:10 am 45
@jesse:
why stop at 150% household debt to income ratio??
let's take it to 250%!
and all the realtors can drive new X5s!
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July 6th, 2011 at 7:12 am 46
@Dave: There’s no debate. My record speaks for itself. There is nothing to debate or argue. I was very specific in my expectations in the past and they have come true to date, with the exception of higher prices than late Summer 2010.
Once the correction started, I predicted it wouldn’t exceed 20%.
Except for the time when you predicted a 30% drop? In Dec 2008 (after prices had fallen 15%), you predicted in a VCI guest post they would fall another 15%.
Of course, 6 months earlier (before the correction) you said:
Your record does indeed speak for itself, but it doesn't seem all that accurate to me. Unfortunately most of your record has been voted down into invisibility!
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July 6th, 2011 at 7:45 am 47
@Best place on meth: Go visit China.
As for why there are very few sitting toilets in public washrooms, malls, etc, there is a good reason for that and it's everywhere in Asia, including Japan. The reason is actually very simple and the solution is also simple and cheap.
As for not caring what the Chinese think of Vancouver, well don't be surprised when the Chinese don't give a damn about what you think about China next time you starting giving lectures about what it should/should not do. Lack of respect goes both ways.
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July 6th, 2011 at 7:49 am 48
@Patiently Waiting:
Not only that, a lot of people bought condos with the completely backwards idea that buying a condo would help them trade up to a house in a few years. Because obviously, if prices go up by a uniform percentage across the board, the house still goes up more in dollars. With houses increasing at a higher percentage than condos the difference is even more pronounced. Instead of getting a foot on the so-called "property ladder", it's more like stepping on a treadmill and trying to catch a car.
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July 6th, 2011 at 7:59 am 49
Genworth MI Canada (Trades on Toronto under ticker MIC) is the biggest short in the market. Essentially this business is like the private mortage insurers in the US that all got hammered and are now on the point of bankruptcy. The only difference is that in Canada MIC competes against the government and is essentially a price-taker against an agency that doesn't exist to make a profit but rather to promote "home ownership." It only writes policies on the highest loan-to-value ratios (90-95%) and for reasons related to bank capital requirements, tends to write a disproportionate amount of business when the market is at its frothiest. Oh yeah, and it reports its earnings on a rolling three year delay (due to when it recognizes revenue), which means that its financial results are only now going to start showing the decline in business it began experiencing in 2008. The stock is very likely headed to zero. Go short.
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July 6th, 2011 at 8:04 am 50
Welcome to the ‘New Normal’. Five year rates have been flat and will likely remain so for many years to come. Same thing for house prices. The only thing that is going to change is that in five years, you will be five years older.
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July 6th, 2011 at 8:09 am 51
@space889:
Been to China, backpacked all over the country for a month traveling with the locals on buses, trains and ferries before deciding enough is enough and moving on.
You can only crap into a dirt hole so many times before you get sick of it. You can only handle people spitting all around you a few thousand times before you want to get the fuck out.
Nice enough people but way too fucking many of them, everywhere is so insanely crowded it's sickening. Watching them shoving each other at a bus or train station ticket window is surreal.
I wasn't then and never will be impressed with China, they're obsessed with image and the appearance of greatness when in reality they're still a 3rd world shithole and will be for at least another 30 years.
As for what the Chinese think a world class city is, they can go fuck themselves. If being world class is just about size and population then Karachi, Dhaka and Lagos are as world class as they come.
I would never go back to China, ever.
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July 6th, 2011 at 8:10 am 52
"As for not caring what the Chinese think of Vancouver, well don’t be surprised when the Chinese don’t give a damn about what you think about China next time you starting giving lectures about what it should/should not do. Lack of respect goes both ways."
They already don't care behind their polite nods and smiles, and increasingly aggressive behaviour – we are just realizing that we need to adopt the same attitude…
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July 6th, 2011 at 8:28 am 53
@space889:
Umm, I think he meant they literally $hit in a hole due to lack of plumbing for the majority of the rural population, not that they use the more ergonomically correct squat system of defecating that is popular in most of the Asian world. As for respect, they may be an old civilization but they are not (as a whole) civilized by western terms and therefore I will not offer them my western style respect (as a whole). As a country they offer:
Limited regard for human rights or even human value
Zero design standards
Rampant corruption
Sub standard goods – often downright dangerous
No respect for patents or brands (excess counterfeiting)
No real innovation – just make other cultures inventions cheaper
Tasty food
OK, I gave them food.
I have many Asian and Chinese friends and most of them agree that China is a piece of $hit country…that's why they are here. I respect my friends as they have recognized that in moving to a western country they need to adopt some western culture those that come here because it reminds them of China can just go the #uck home IMO.
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July 6th, 2011 at 8:33 am 54
@Best place on meth: You have a very nice superority attitude. You have no appreciation how easy you have it in Canada. You may have travel in China with the locals, you have not lived with them nor learned anything beyond confirming your preconceived notions about China.
Anyways, all I have to say is count your luck & blessing that you weren't born into a rural villiage family in China. You are really no better than those Chinese you despise and look down so much.
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July 6th, 2011 at 8:51 am 55
We keep arguing whether we are a world class city or not. Now there is objective proof that we are! Check out this article on why Vancouver is world class without a single mention of the natural beauty:
http://www.vancouversun.com/Google+unusual+Nortel+bids+rooted+mathematics/5058252/story.html
We should definitely send this to Cam Good and have him translated into Chinese because the Chinese still don’t even think of Vancouver as a city yet, much less a world class city!
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July 6th, 2011 at 8:55 am 56
@YLTN @ Work: You think moving a 3rd world country with 1.5 billion people to even 1950s North American living standards is what? Going to happen overnight? Without huge costs? Just like waving a magic wand? All the infrastructure you take for granted here are just going to be built magically out of air without time, money, and resources?Geez…
Also, are you going to care about human rights, democracy, copyright, etc when you are still worrying about putting food on the table, keeping a roof over your head, not getting sick, finding money to put your kids through elementary and high school?
Society progress in stages, first basic human requirements, only when that's satisfied can it go onto the next stage. It's like you telling a homeless person in DTES they should save for retirement when he/she doesn't even know where the meal is coming from.
Seriously people have no idea how easy and lucky you have it in North American where there hasn't even been a war in the last 100 years.
China has been stagnate from 17th century and onward due to some very bad foreign policies and a lot exploitation by Western countries like England actively selling opium in China. However it has also made huge progress in the last 30 years. Yes the country still has very low standard of living on average, however it is improving at a very fast rate. What Chinese immigrants think of China and West 20 years ago versus 10 years ago versus now is very different. Some still think it's a piece of shit. Some have grudges for whatever reason. However a lot are also not bothering staying in Canada after they get their PR, citizenship and moving back to China to work and live. Why? Because they *gasp* actually believe they enjoy a better standard of living in China. Impossible for you to believe I know but that's also the truth.
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July 6th, 2011 at 8:59 am 57
@Nostra: That's what happens when a country gets powerful. US do the same thing. They lost every legal fight/trade dispute on Canadian softwood lumber and yet Canada still have to go with US demands to keep exporting softwood lumber to US. Why because US is powerful. Canada can't do what it pleases not because it's all nice and caring but rather more because it just doesn't have the power to do it. If Canada were on par with US, it's unlikely that US can bully Canada like it has on softwood lumber export and other disputes.
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July 6th, 2011 at 9:08 am 58
YLTN @ Work: You think moving a 3rd world country with 1.5 billion people to even 1950s North American living standards is what? Going to happen overnight? Without huge costs? Just like waving a magic wand? All the infrastructure you take for granted here are just going to be built magically out of air without time, money, and resources?Geez…
China is very fond of showing off its fastest train, longest bridge, fastest built condo (which tipped), the airports they build every month, as well as off course their famous ghost cities. China has pursued asset and resource acquisitions around the world, from purchasing South American farm land to African oil and minerals. The country has bragged about its trillions in reserves.
China has certainly been doing its best to demonstrate that it has the resources to bring the 21st century to all of China. It certainly has been spending the big bucks to put on a show.
Ahhh, yes, I forgot – its all about image and saving face. I guess that accounts for the fact that there is a leased BMW (it seems) in every Chinese person's garage here.
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July 6th, 2011 at 9:21 am 59
Vancouver (and Canada) has a massive inferiority complex.
I grew up in Vancouver and left in my late twenties looking for better career opportunities and have spent the last 10 years in Los Angeles.
I am not sure what one considers “world class” or if it is even definable. Regardless, Vancouver does not resonate on the minds of people in Southern California (or the US for that matter) any more than other far off NW cities like Portland or Seattle. You’d think Vancouver would be more prominent with the entertainment industry focus or self proclaimed “Hollywood North” moniker. Interestingly that is a term I have never heard used outside of Canada. Although, admittedly I am not in the entertainment industry.
In my view, Vancouver is a pretty city in a remote, backwater area of the world with a large port that ships out natural resources to the rest of the world. World class scenery for sure, with horrendously crappy weather and not really important on the world stage outside of being a conduit to Canada’s great natural resource assets.
When I tell people in the States I am from Vancouver about 66% give me blank stares not knowing what to say and the other 33% say “Oh what a pretty city!” then I proceed to ask them if they visited in July, August or the first two weeks of September.
Lately though – Sadly many people asked me about the riots. but that only lasted a week or two.
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July 6th, 2011 at 9:43 am 60
@Anonymous: Your math is bad…over 5 years that’s a savings of about $120K.
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July 6th, 2011 at 9:45 am 61
@space889:
>>>You are really no better than those Chinese you despise and look down so much.<<<
You're an idiot. First you tell me to go see China, then when I tell you I already have and found it to be 3rd world and filthy you now accuse me of despising the people which I've already stated were pretty nice people.
That's 2 wrong assumptions you've made and you just keep yapping like a moron.
This is a 3rd world country acting as though it's greatest nation on earth on all levels. The totalitarian scumbags who run the place (may they all end up in front of a firing squad especially that piece of shit Jiabao) keep playing this "biggest dick" game with the world but in reality they're nothing more than liars, scammers, pretenders and frauds with a fake economy and business practices based on ripping people off.
If you think it's such an up and comer you should move back and make your fortune there but as far as I'm concerned, fuck China.
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July 6th, 2011 at 10:17 am 62
@crabman:
The residential average HPI was 210 at the bottom and 250 at the top. The mid point is 230. The bottom and top that I called is within 10% of that. In the post you reference, I was refering to the average, not the HPI, which I have always used because of lower volatility.
The peak before the correction had an HPI of 240 in March 2008. The HPI 12 months prior was 210. The bottom in 2009 was also 210, meaning the market gave up 12 months of gains.
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July 6th, 2011 at 10:43 am 63
@Dave: Which means it's flat. Even though it goes up and down.
Is that definition of a flat market an industry definition, economic definition, or just yours?
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July 6th, 2011 at 11:06 am 64
@Not much of a name…:
That means that Canada is also flat because even if you travel from coast to coast over the Rocky Mountains, you eventually end up back at sea level.
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July 6th, 2011 at 11:14 am 65
Just for clarification, Dave.
If we drop back to an HPI of 210 from the current 266.5, is the market flat even though the market would encounter a drop of 21%?
You have given two definitions of a flat market. One that is where prices only fluctuate +/- 10% and one that the end point is the same as the starting point. You can't have it both ways. Please explain.
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July 6th, 2011 at 11:37 am 66
Canadian Equali-Tea LTD.
I tink we should buy WMD's ….. non E -Bay……access at local
" Al- Qaida -R -Us…Superstore"
Then…. With BIC lighter…engage them SOB's !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Flatten Rockie Mountainz…..who care about John Denver songs ???????????……..he not even know how to fly small plane ,…………dumb round eyes !!!
After insubordinate geological formations humiliated to GROUND ZERO position…..all RE collapses……..no difference between DILDO (Eastern Canuckistan) and West Van………..as if any inherent difference exists – to – start.
I give this advise freely
…OK round – eyes ?
If not like ..I kick -U -ass in front of West -Van homeless Shelter…aka 5 star whore – tel !!!
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July 6th, 2011 at 11:41 am 67
@Not much of a name…:
My definition of flat was a low HPI of 210 and a high of 250. I agree that prices are above what I would call my strict definition of flat, but not by much.
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July 6th, 2011 at 11:49 am 68
@Best place on meth: agreed completely. Try starting with feeding your population and providing running water and sewage before worrying about bullet trains etc. I guess that is why the "new" Chinese like Vancouver so much, we too (Vancouver) desperately want the world to notice us and think we are "World Class".
Ugh, I'm born and raised Vancouver but only stick around because my older parents won't move, this place has turned into a useless village with an inferiority complex!
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:19 pm 69
2 many round – eye hillbilly's on this blog
Not listen to ancient Asian wisdom.
QQQQQ ….
………….aka " 4Q" ……. SOB's
May your West Side RE collapse to Bre-X level !!!!!!!!!
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:25 pm 70
Patriotz,
Yes, you of course are correct. Hasty in my reply. Should have been something like:
“A low or non yielding assets purchased for speculation only has value if you sell at a higher price”
My gist was there is no point buy real estate just to have an “asset”.
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:27 pm 71
@Best place on meth:
R-Ewe the " Chu – Zen " one ?
Can you vajina…err.." snatch" pebble from my hand ?
WTF…. I buy EWE tin – foil hat……..VISA not maxed out yet !!!
Err Milesz double the norm !!!
Heppa Moi get to Beijing so can buy More condoze !!!
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:32 pm 72
No, I’m not. Parse the sentence. Try real hard. You can do it.
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:37 pm 73
@Dave:
You seem to think you have superior predictive powers, had you predicted, that all the money and time spent on your useless blog would end in failure?
Noticed how much better your brother has done since he got rid of you ?
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:39 pm 74
@Troll: Isn’t the yield negative?
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:43 pm 75
mortgage rate going up? you people make it a huge deal.
5 years fixed can be had for 3.65% at coast capital savings, and 4.04% posted at first national financial.
renters' minds think alike!
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July 6th, 2011 at 12:58 pm 76
One house on my street sold last week.
This afternoon the house beside it (realtor lives there, nice fellow) planted a For Sale sign on the lawn. My one block has just a ton of these signs, one sold the rest….not.
All of these folks (every single one of them) is Chinese, and the bulk don't speak english very well (point is that they are new Canadians)…is there a sudden rush to the exits beginning? I know China real estate (the hotter markets) have slowed markedly as the gov't there try's to reign in a bubble – are we seeing signs of it here now?
I think we are, but the trend is still rather new so it may be a tad to early. But (and mark these words chumps) this market is setting up for a CRASH of epic proportions.
xoxox (and fuck you McLosin)
Romeo Jordan
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:13 pm 77
@space889: After talking to a few recent Chinese immigrants I can tell you they have moved because they grew tired of the corruption, overcrowding, and pollution. I am saddened some of the comments here paint all of China as morally corrupt.
Maybe the investor immigrant program has had its day.
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:14 pm 78
This blog has been declared dead.
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:15 pm 79
@WS
"In my view, Vancouver is a pretty city in a remote, backwater area of the world with a large port that ships out natural resources to the rest of the world. World class scenery for sure, with horrendously crappy weather and not really important on the world stage outside of being a conduit to Canada’s great natural resource assets."
Sounds good to me. That's why I read this blog – I hope to be able to afford a home here eventually. Your excuse?
"When I tell people in the States I am from Vancouver about 66% give me blank stares not knowing what to say and the other 33% say “Oh what a pretty city!” then I proceed to ask them if they visited in July, August or the first two weeks of September."
I would be surprised if 33% of Americans know where Canada is.
@Best place on meth Says:
"Melbourne is twice the size of Vancouver and closer to Toronto in stature. Vancouver is on par with Denver except that we have that fabulous port to bring Chinese junk in and send resources out."
Melbourne isn't a bad comparison for Vancouver – as you say it is quite a lot bigger though. Better comparisons (smallish cities, diverse population, near the coast) would be Portland, Perth in Australia, and Auckland and Wellington in NZ.
Basically, chose a small, new city near water in a relatively civilized and safe country – and that's Vancouver. You won't find many though, hence Vancouver's plaudits as a good place to love (whether or not you agree with it). The only places Van should be compared with is Australian and NZ cites, along with the USA's younger, smaller, expanding cities – and of course other Canadian cities. Comparing Vancouver with Europe is stupid.
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:20 pm 80
@Romeo Jordan:
No Scezhuan thing as " nice" realtard.
All have mark of the beast !!!!
(604) is close enough to 666 !!!!
PS: I do like their calendars and fridge magnets…
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:24 pm 81
true, I also like the fridge magnets that you can also write on with a felt market – those are great!
medic, this blog is just warming up, the fireworks are being prepared.
its our turn to list and then sink.
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July 6th, 2011 at 1:40 pm 82
Vancouver WAS a nice place…..probably one of the best to live before the c*cksuckers and assh*loes pimped it into oblivion.
Shite…..I remember going to Capitol 6 ……North Van Hobbit House…West Van's "Attic"……etc..etc…those were the good olde days.
It was almost frontier compared to NOW in 2011.
All we have now it a fascist Nutzi retard politicians…..who would bet " 22" at a round of blackjack…..and who need FreeMason tattoos.
Lord…Gimmeeee back what we had PRE -Expo 86…….I can't stand the stench WE have now in this soul-less 'berg.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:22 pm 83
Sorry for the late numbers!
New Listings 275
Price Changes 129
Sold Listings 166
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:40 pm 84
Late? Late for what? Late to feed your non-clients? How about feeding yourself? Got any listings? Sales?
Way to go number guy!
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:43 pm 85
@No Way Pauly: piss off jackass!
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:48 pm 86
When i buy a house ill be calling paulb….. So thanks paul
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:53 pm 87
@No Way Pauly:
C'mon now, you are sounding like a Scientologist when one of the flock starts questioning the insanity.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:53 pm 88
I'm serious. Look at his site. No listings. The ones he has on there are not his. They are reciprocity listings from his office (as per that little "house" logo). That seems pretty deceptive to me. And sales? I know that property. It wasn't his. Search for the V895660 (the listing number) and you quickly see that it is a Royal LePage Northshore listing. All I am saying is that for someone so "transparent" he seems pretty deceptive.
Though those are facts and facts aren't much appreciated here.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:56 pm 89
@Best place on meth:
this certainly is a country that behaves like it has a small wang.
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:57 pm 90
Quote from paulB's site:
Paul ensure you don't keep looking in the rear-view mirror, but are looking forward to tomorrow…even more than yesterday's market, its tomorrow's market that counts.
Unfortunately we all know Paul cheers on the Bear side which means that looking forward for him means looking forward to a crash which means NO one will buy with him. Not even you, Anonymous. Not for many many years to come… at which point he will be a fireman (or at least aspires to be).
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July 6th, 2011 at 2:59 pm 91
@YLTN @ Work:
if we leave, it's a capitulation
let's all start re-addressing our homes with the number 4
and license plates with all number 4s
and be sure to write their names in red ink – they HATE that
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July 6th, 2011 at 3:17 pm 92
http://www.chinasmack.com/2011/stories/woman-save…
this is a great story and it's received huge media play.
the chinese are very clever people, they are genetic ectomorphs (probably similiar situation to the dutch after ww2) and as such, are naturally cerebral. they can also be extremely funny and impish, as you can see by the recent photo shops of the 'levitating' officials inspecting a road in Huili County – they have been to the moon, under the sea, met obama, etc. etc. hilarious.
i think any thinking chinese wants to live in a more just society, however without any knowledge of the western experience with all forms of totalitarianism, from the european monarchies, the soviets, to run of the mill fascism on to corporatism and now our fine tuned and insanely controlling 'inverted totalitarianism' that we enjoy today – it can be very difficult to see and understand the ways the communist party fucks them over. oh sure, they know something is up – but they are living in a George Orwell novel. many of the peasantry grasp the futility of the situation, given that 1/10th of their compatriots are in the party already or striving to be, and then a great chunk of the mass are die hard nationalists.
the two biggest threats to a broad peace in re: to the west and china in the 21st century are:
1) an american theocracy
2) chinese nationalism
we know how both scenarios end, with a master race ideology and millions of 'good germans' doing the lord's – or the party's – work.
let's hope that a story like that changes some attitudes, and altruism becomes cool, rather than flaunting a car like some sap.
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July 6th, 2011 at 3:37 pm 93
@No Way Pauly, since you know Pauls identity and feel compelled to trash talk him, you should be a human being and reveal your identity.. You fucking coward.
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July 6th, 2011 at 4:00 pm 94
If it takes an article to the Vancouver Sun to tell the world that the city is "world class", isn't that the same as someone telling everyone that they are cool?
The problem is, when you're cool, everyone knows it already.
That's the whole point of being cool.
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July 6th, 2011 at 5:41 pm 95
@space889:
Disagree with BPOM, get voted down. Them's the rules here.
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July 6th, 2011 at 7:21 pm 96
Building Boom in China Stirs Fears of Debt Overload
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July 6th, 2011 at 8:17 pm 97
@84 No Way Pauly Says: "Late? Late for what? Late to feed your non-clients? How about feeding yourself? Got any listings? Sales?"
Wow, 'shoot the messenger', that takes me back to the glory days before headcase #1 on RET was was forced to abandon his favourite sock puppet: Johnny Horton. Thanks for the memories and congrats on lowering the bar as only some members of the BCREA seem capable.
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July 6th, 2011 at 10:20 pm 98
Among the 21 metropolitan regions surveyed, 6 posted 12- month price declines in May, led by Windsor (-4.4%) and Victoria (-1.7%).
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-07/canada-m…
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July 6th, 2011 at 10:33 pm 99
Meanwhile, in a separate report Thursday, realtor Royal LePage said its survey of house prices showed a “sizable year-over-year price increases in the second quarter of 2011, but high house prices are concealing early signs of a moderating market.”
“The market has seen its near-term peak in house price appreciation, and a slower second half of the year is expected. Still, by the end of 2011, the national average house price is expected to be 7.7% higher than it was at the end of 2010,” it said.
Blood of the housing bubble is on Carney's hands now rates should be 3 x higher already.
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July 7th, 2011 at 12:14 am 100
woah never thought I'd see this headline
"Royal LePage says housing market has peaked"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/st…
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July 7th, 2011 at 12:40 am 101
ECB raised interest rates by .25 this morn!
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July 7th, 2011 at 1:04 am 102
@VanRant:
Wish Carney had the stones to do it too. Our economy is in better shape than Europe's so what excuse does he have now?
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July 7th, 2011 at 1:15 am 103
So today we see Royal LePage claim the housing market has peaked – a story picked up by every mainstream media news outlet in the country. Just a few days ago, we see those very same mainstream media headlines scream the word "bubble." Just a few weeks ago, Flaherty stopped just short of uttering the dreaded bubble word while warning once again that Canadians are hopelessly in debt. And just after that, we see changes to the immigrant investor program. In the meantime, the Richmond epicenter has substanitally cooled (in excess of 2100 listings at the moment), the greater Vancouver periphery has cracks the size of the Grand Canyon, and we haven't heard from hell's own realtor, Cam Good, in what seems like forever.
Throw into the mix Tuesday's mortgage rate increases – minor though they were – and Paul B's recent numbers, and you can't help but think the message is hitting home with average folk. People buy homes not just for stability and "lifestyle," but mostly because they're supposedly good investments. Who in their right mind can say the latter is true?
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July 7th, 2011 at 1:41 am 104
@YLTN @ Work: Hmmm and where do you think the money and resources will come from to feed the people and provide plumbing if China stuck to dirty highways and rundown roads instead of building state of the art infrastructures that provide jobs to tens of millions of migrant workers, allow for easier transportatino of goods across the country, boosting economic competitiveness, etc? Without sacrificing and investing the money in modern infrastructure how can China hope to grow its economy the way it has over the last 3 decades which in turn generates the money and job opportunities for the rural workers who turns around and spend the money in their home village to build better housing and such?
Oh wait, I forgot, China should have just stuck to the agarian economy and providing cheap slave labour for the West, be glad with their lot in life and whatever scrap the West decides to throw their way, and always be happy and smiling at all the scorn, criticism, and BS the West heaps on it whenever it like. Yeah, that's the way to improve their standard of living. Not building modern infrastructure, attracts investments, provide job opportunities, move up the value chain, generate wealth but just simply listen and obey commands from Westerners.
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July 7th, 2011 at 1:43 am 105
New post
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July 7th, 2011 at 1:48 am 106
If you are a native Vancouverite, you can never escape the real estate insanity even if you opt-out yourself. I'm steaming mad right now.
My sister and BIL just bought a more expensive house. From what I understand, their mortgage jumped from a managable quarter million to a more difficult half million. They are both quite successful so I thought nothing at first. They also have two young children, aged three and one.
I recently just got a panicked call from my 65-ish Mom. She needed me to come over to watch the kids because my 65-ish Dad had a medical appointment (I'm on vacation, so she knew I was available).
Uhhhh, why are my parents taking care of my rich sister's children? I don't know how much FREE babysitting their doing, but it is up to 20 hours a week from the sounds of it. So I asked my Mom why my darling sister doesn't hire a babysitter. Mom says she doesn't want my darling sister to get an even BIGGER mortgage.
At this point, I'm trying to figure a way to intervene that doesn't get me hated by anyone (up til now I've always been on good terms with sis and love my niece and nephew). I don't know if that's possible.
I'm now more serious about leaving this city again. FFS.
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July 7th, 2011 at 1:57 am 107
@Best place on meth: What you did is equivalent of visiting Vancouver with a preconceived notion of what it is, stayed in a SRO in DTES for a few months and never venture outside of it, and then go home proclaim Vancouver is exactly as you thought it is, a shithole that's the den of human misery. All that gleaming glass towers a few blocks down in Vancouver downtown? That's nothing more than a fascade put on by Vancouver to showcase what a great city it is even though it really is just a piece of shit city.
You are absolutely right, I am an idiot who blabs and flab garbage and don't know what I'm talking about. I had thought Canadians with an university education can actually think critically, go check out something with an open eye and mind, left preconcieved notions and racism behind, see what tremendous progress have been made and how much there is left to do. Analyze the situation from multiple points of views, see the big pictures, where the big problems are, where the opportunties are, and make the best of situation for the most number of people.
Anyways, I should thank you and other posters on this forum for opening my eyes to see what Canadians really think of China and the Chinese people. I will always, always, remember this in all my future deals with Canada and Canadians.
Before I leave, I will just make two suggestions.
1 – People keeps complaining about corruption money and scums coming to Canada with their ill gotten gains from China? I say the best way is simply to ban all immigration from China and HK, including foreign exchange and English students. Just limiting investor immigration program is not enough as people can easily get around that by putting their kids and wife here, plunk down $2M+ for a house and another $100K for that luxury vehicle. Just ban all immigration from China or only accept people with skills but no money and all the problem with scum and corruption money are solve. Plus all those poor people in China will thank you since you just make it much harder for corrupt officials to leave the country.
2 – Since China is such a shithole with so many poor people there wanting a good life that they can never have, why not spread some of that famous Canadian values and compassion and let those poor hard working people come to Canada to build a better life like your ancestors did all 50, 100, 200 years ago? Get rid of those points requirements and such, and just let them in as long as they are hard working and want to build a better life. I mean when your ancestors came, Canada didn't have things like must have English or French, must have this number of points and such requirement. It work well didn't it? Why not do it again except instead of Europe, this time do it with Asia?
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July 7th, 2011 at 2:22 am 108
@space889: Here's a tip from a Troll. If you want to troll you need to keep your posts shorter, nobody wants to read a 4 page diatribe. Keep it short. Nice anger though.
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July 7th, 2011 at 6:02 am 109
#106 @Patiently Waiting: There's nothing to be gained by saying anything. They're all committed to the plan, and it makes sense to them. It's not a bad idea in general, although bringing housing into it is weird.
People like spending time with their grandkids. And older people make good babysitters because they often place fewer unrealistic expectations on their time, and on the kids. And they have a different (probably better) perspective on life as well. Not so wrapped up on the small (adult) things, which are completely irrelevant to kids. Can be more engaged in the small things that ARE relevant to kids. There is a world of difference between that and a typical babysitter.
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July 7th, 2011 at 6:57 am 110
#106,
sound like you are jealous of your rich sister. suck to be you!
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July 7th, 2011 at 8:08 am 111
@space889:
see you're getting all sensitive
look at it objectively:
"japan, at the height of it's boom, only invested 35% of it's GDP in infrastructure – china is at 70%"
and it's local party member corruption
we're not slagging chinese people, we're slagging the party
it's up to YOU to tell your family what we've told you. now go and topple that entity.
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July 7th, 2011 at 9:06 am 112
@space889:
Since China is such a shithole with so many poor people there wanting a good life that they can never have, why not spread some of that famous Canadian values and compassion and let those poor hard working people come to Canada to build a better life like your ancestors did all 50, 100, 200 years ago?
because when 2 million irish and scottish immigrants came here in the 1860s-1880s
that was like 50% of their national populations.
there are 700 million chinese living on <$1000 a year.
if you like canada, you have to restrict membership, sorry.
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July 7th, 2011 at 9:07 am 113
@Troll:
chinese trolls are not very sophisticated – all bluster no irony
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July 7th, 2011 at 9:09 am 114
@space889:
I mean when your ancestors came, Canada didn’t have things like must have English or French, must have this number of points and such requirement. It work well didn’t it? Why not do it again except instead of Europe, this time do it with Asia?
——–
dude, in the 1880s they were even racist towards different kinds of whites. if you were irish or ukranian or even german you had to fight for respect.
it sounds like you want an open door.
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