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What if the last 30 years happens again?

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116 Comments

If Vancouver house prices increase by the same amount they have since 1982 the average house price in 2038 will be almost $4 million dollars. Sounds reasonable, but what about interest rates? In the same amount of time interest rates have fallen dramatically. If they keep dropping at that rate they’ll break the zero bound soon and become negative.

Then what happens?

The bank will pay you to hold a mortgage.

The future is bright.

Here’s the link to the video on YouTube if you want to comment there.

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WFT?

@Anonymous:

It surged because Carney left out the word "eventually" from his statement. This was taken as major signal that rate increases are certainly on the way.

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Not much of a name...

@Anonymous: The rise was based on the expectation that the rate increase will come sooner rather than later.

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Anonymous

@Eddie: "Carney the coward chickens out again…"

I'm confused…the story says $cdn surged as Carney left rate unchanged. It's supposed to be the other way around…surge when rates go up, no?

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jesse

@Devore: "a secret agenda"

LOL anyone can claim a "secret agenda" because it is impossible to dis-prove. I have a secret agenda too. There. Now it's not a secret I have an agenda anymore.

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Devore

@Best place on meth: Oh, hey now, it's a secret agenda, stay on message!

🙂

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jesse

@patriotz: " like the gun registry"

Here they are allowing provinces to form their own registry, so it's a way of appeasing a contentious issue, and in-line with their purported desire to decentralize certain policy decisions.

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jesse

New post on the BoC rate decision

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patriotz

@Patiently Waiting:

I actually have my doubts that there is any real attempt to use “conservative” immigrants to roll-back progressive policies like gay rights.

It's not the intent of the Cons to actually roll back same-sex marriage, legal abortion, etc, but to use the resentment of these by socially conservative groups to get votes and raise money. If they really did try to do something it would galvanize socially liberal Canadians who are the majority.

Thus the "attempt" to reopen same-sex marriage which they knew in advance would not succeed.

On some issues they will actually have to deliver, though, like the gun registry.

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It's abt qualit

The Bank of Canada declined to raise its key overnight interest rate Tuesday, keeping in line with expectations from economists.

The overnight target rate has remained steady at one per cent since it was last raised in September 2010.

BNN's Michael Kane said the bank didn't give any signs to the financial world Tuesday that the rate would be changing any time soon.

"The majority of people who are talking to us on Bay Street are saying it's going to be 2012," Kane told CTV News Channel on Tuesday morning, just after the central bank announced its rate decision.

http://ottawa.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/201…

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Firkin

@keeperofthederp:

Someone's got a crush on Jesse.

Derp and Jesse Sittin' in a tree

K. I. SS. ING.

First comes love,

then comes marriage,

then comes a giant unmanageable mortgage.

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WFT?

@Anonymous:

Besides, education only leads to rational decisions which are a big financial handicap in this city.

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keeperofthederp

woops that was me – lol

after reading all the trolls it's just nice to get actual information.

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Patiently Waiting

By restricting immigration, the Conservatives actually appeal to recent immigrant voters. Who is going to talk your ear off about perceived unfairness and queue-jumping in our immigration system? A recent immigrant.

In addition, I think its a part of human nature to want to slam the door behind you once you get in. Not to mention how more immigration affects the employment prospects of recent immigrants more than anyone.

I actually have my doubts that there is any real attempt to use "conservative" immigrants to roll-back progressive policies like gay rights. This would get money rolling into the NDP and may even breathe life into the Liberals.

Here is an article I just found which might explain Conservative motivations:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/ca…

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jesse

(awkward silence)

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Anonymous

@jesse:

i will follow you on bloody stumps through the snow

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jesse

@fixie guy: " importing the idle rich make any sense at all to a social welfare nation" I agree here — there seems to be some unfortunate offshoots to accommodating some well-heeled coming to Canada as much for convenience as for contributing to the country. The investor immigrant program seems strangely non-Conservative by curtailing capital into marginal investments. Specifically for Vancouver the program has been felt by locals being crowded out of certain exclusive neighbourhoods and, instead of taking their marbles elsewhere, have tried to compete by loading up on debt. One thing to watch in the coming year or so is lobbying the provincial government for changes to the provincial nominee program. Right now the program draws from a broad geographic base but immigration consultants will be pushing hard for this program to suit their rich clients' needs, given… Read more »

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Anonymous

@space889:
Who needs to save for a university education in this town? All you need is a 5 week realtor course and possibly a mortgage broker course (to diversify) and the bimmers will start flowing.

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Anonymous

@patriotz: Growing up the parents had recreational property in Whatcom county, it was a blast. Now if I wanted recreational property for my family, Whatcom county is not only significantly cheaper than the BC equivalents, it's also closer. That's why they are purchasing places down there. I would expect that most are paying too much though. A cabin should be under 100k and there are many great choices, but to get something waterfront with granite and stainless they are probably shelling out a lot more. Keep in mind that Whatcom county probably sells around 30-50 properties per month so if 10 a month are Canadians then it's perceived as an invasion. The price to income must be through the roof there, not much in the way of jobs and mostly single income families. When Vancouver goes down they'll feel it… Read more »

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space889

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/B-C-kids-expecte…

BC parents least likely to save for children's university education.

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space889

@Eddie: Housing is not the economy and for the rest of the economy, especially export, a higher loonie is more than enough right now to restrain growth. Interest rate is a fairly blunt tool and you can't use it to fix only 1 sector of the economy. Fiscal policy is more suited towards fixing the housing issue.

Simplest solution would be to rollback some of the CHMC policies like insurance loans for investors, limit the maximum amount that can be insurance to a 3x average income of last 3 years, etc. That would kill off a lot of the speculation in a hurry.

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fixie guy

@84 patriotz Says:exploiting…socially conservative attitudes regarding gay rights, petty crime, welfare, and what have you." It took a couple reads for your gist to sink in but I can't disagree. In addition to buying empathetic votes with lenient immigration policies (who'll vote against the possibility of moving family over?) I always considered it part of their stimulus 'action plan' to artificially pump up the GDP, not to mention zero-interest operating loans for the government. Harper's using immigration as a tool for his own purposes. @86 jesse: In post 81 you wrote in irony: "…the Conservatives have been pandering…" It's that past tense to which I replied. They've been extremely lenient, even their target numbers were greatly exceeded. There's no question in my mind Harper sabotaged the 2011 Census to hide the effects of his policies. 'Too intrusive'? Give me a… Read more »

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Eddie

Carney the coward chickens out again…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/st…

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Best place on meth

@jesse:

>>>Jason Kenney is conducting a quiet consultation this summer, even though he’s not telling anybody about it,” Rae states.<<<

I posted about this here last week. If he's not telling anybody about it then how did I find out?

Oh yeah, it's right on their website. Check it out Bob.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/rel…

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YLTN @ Work

Looking around the "Captus" website, it looks like it is only George Kan as the proprieter with his email in contact us section (I think it was him on tv too). I wonder if it is worth sending him an email posing as a potential client mentioning that you saw him on the news article and are interested in something similar and whether Captus was responsible for bringing the news crew in and whether he could do it again; heck, pretend to be a real estate agent and say you are interested in marketing in Asia, was he the guy responsible for getting the news crew in and could he do it again.

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