What if the last 30 years happens again?

If Vancouver house prices increase by the same amount they have since 1982 the average house price in 2038 will be almost $4 million dollars. Sounds reasonable, but what about interest rates? In the same amount of time interest rates have fallen dramatically. If they keep dropping at that rate they’ll break the zero bound soon and become negative.

Then what happens?

The bank will pay you to hold a mortgage.

The future is bright.

Here’s the link to the video on YouTube if you want to comment there.

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
jesse
Member

Looks great! Now get VanMD to translate into simplified Chinese and re-post!

keeperofthederp
Guest

this was the funniest thing i've seen in a while – thank you

Van MD
Guest
Van MD

Man it's 3AM and I work in 6 hours.. I will add this translation job to the to-do list…

but I have decided to invade the "Westca" Chinese forum (more Chinese Canadians), in addition to the Iask.ca one (more recent immigrants). Westca is even more hostile, got trash-talked and put down by a couple users. This user "Fufu" is a lot of work. So I decided to sit down and spend another 1.5 hours on the next masterpiece response (on pg 11):

(my original post started on pg 9)
http://www.westca.com/Forums/viewtopic/t=379081/s

Time for bed.

Van MD
Guest
Van MD

oops, should've posted the google translate link instead for your convenience, here goes:

<a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2 Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D379081%2Fstart%3D100%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url” target=”_blank”>http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&pr…” target=”_blank”>Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D379081%2Fstart%3D100%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url

Van MD
Guest
Van MD

by the way, my signature line there is the VCI rollercoaster : ) hope that's ok.

In fact, it prompted a user to start a new thread:

"remembering the Vancouver RE rollercoaster and some thoughts"

Guess VCI may have had a longer reach than we anticipated!

<a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2 Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Fp%3D3394681%2Flang%3Dschinese.html%233394681″ target=”_blank”>http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&s…” target=”_blank”>Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Fp%3D3394681%2Flang%3Dschinese.html%233394681

keeperofthederp
Guest
@Van MD: vanmd: because my accounts (got some multiples for trolling going on) have not been verified, i cannot post or reply or help back you up yet, i'm sorry. however, i have been screen grabbing and stitching together in photoshop all of yours and rabbit's postings – some of these image files are getting to be 8000+ pixels long! 😛 they are hilarious, though. some serious pigeons in this crowd. they all think the market will go up forever, especially if our comrades keep buying, etc. i am waiting to read chants of "JIAO! JIAO!" (go go/add fuel) anyways, i am trying to find a way of posting this without coming off like a raging bigot. i just think that the side story of foreign real estate speculation is … after reading all of this .. perhaps understated. i… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@keeperofthederp:

i just think that the side story of foreign real estate speculation is … after reading all of this .. perhaps understated.

If the market is really being driven by foreign money why is one of the biggest shills on the Chinese language forums (as VanMD tells us) a mortgage lender at a local bank?

keeperofthederp
Guest

@patriotz:

i don't think the local banks really give a shit what happens.

it's like pringles, they can't stop.

keeperofthederp
Guest

@patriotz:

i follow jesse and a few others on this

it's the BoC that's responsible for this, hand in hand with the banks and CMHC

these are just the greater fools and speculators etc etc.

i think the local canadians were all priced out ages ago – lots jumped in because mr. scam good scared the shit out of them, too.

this is just a fascinating sub plot to analyze. there is boundless optimism, especially that if more purchases are made, the market will stay up.

Keeping An Eye On Th
Guest
Keeping An Eye On Th

"If they keep dropping at that rate they’ll break the zero bound soon and become negative. "

Real interest rates are already negative.

How this bubble has been kept floating for this long is criminal.

keeperofthederp
Guest
jesse
Member

@keeperofthederp:

"Drug dealers don't sell drugs. Drugs sell themselves. It's crack. It's not an encyclopedia. It's not a f**king vacuum cleaner. You don't really gotta try to sell crack…

I've never heard a crack dealer going "Man, how am I gonna get rid of all this crack?!"

– Chris Rock

jesse
Member

A more in-depth analysis of immigration sources and classes. In the past 6 years:

– 2/3rds of immigrants into BC are either skilled worker or family class applicants.

– 13% are investors and entrepreneurs. The classes include spouses or dependants. 4 of 5 came from China or Taiwan.

– The provincial nominee program has a broad distribution of country of origination.

– China and Taiwan comprised 29% of immigrants into the province. Investors and entrepreneurs (mostly investors) from these two countries comprised 10% of immigrants into the province.

keeperofthederp
Guest
@jesse: so the numbers from this.. "China and Taiwan comprised 29% of immigrants into the province. Investors and entrepreneurs (mostly investors) from these two countries comprised 10% of immigrants into the province." given immigration to bc numbers are 40,000 per annum give or take so that's 4000 + families? now we have to consider the 'grey' area of migrants who move to other provinces and then come to BC (isn't there a 50k penalty for this before the 3years are up?) and once here how many are only purchasing ONE property? don't forget the other angle of this is that these forums aren't just the investor class immigrants, it's the entire local community of actual canadian residents/citizens as well. then there is the 'real estate pool' thing that seems to happen. do you recall someone's lengthy post on vreaa about… Read more »
keeperofthederp
Guest

@jesse:

you made crackshackormansion.com, didn't you?? 😉

specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

On my drive to work this morning, News1130 had a 'special report'. It's the 1st of a 4 part series on creative ways to get into the market despite recent prices.

Today, they suggest that you can buddy up with your parents, siblings or even friends. Wow, your dream home can now be a sloppy business partnership venture.

So, after the crash, not only will you be in financial ruins, you can also destroy a relationship in the process. Can't wait for the next 3 parts of the series.

jesse
Member

@keeperofthederp: "you made crackshackormansion.com, didn’t you??"

No. It was too creative.

We can look at interprovincial migration for data regarding those landing in other provinces migrating to BC. I think it definitely adds to the effective immigration into the province. I'll post something on migration velocity at some point, but as of earlier this year, there are as many people leaving BC for other provinces as entering from other provinces.

keeperofthederp
Guest

@jesse:

definitely, i know people who are leaving/have left/are considering leaving.

as well, i myself am considering leaving/contemplating a job offer in kamloops. (not leaving bc, just van)

we're all in our early 30s.

we can't keep treading water/making no forward progress re: work/homes so…

are you a statistician by chance? my oldest sister is 😛

paradox
Guest
paradox

here is a reminder from reality to all "best place on earth" cheerleaders :

Summer is almost gone, did you see any of it?

Still sub 15 degrees temperatures and never ending rain.

How many of you did you go skiing in the morning, and golfing in the afternoon this year?

keeperofthederp
Guest

@paradox:

probably none, since house flippers are usually soulless geeks that don't do any physical activity besides thumbing their blackberries and shifting their automatic Bimmers

http://consumerist.com/2011/07/neighbors-are-mad-

^^^ we've all seen this, right? lol

patriotz
Member

@jesse:

Except for Quebec, provinces are not involved in immigration for other than investor/entrepreneur classes.

A skilled worker or family class immigrant can get on a plane and land anywhere they want, once they have their visa.

A lot of immigrants to Quebec do eventually leave, but I think most of them go to Ontario. Given BC's high cost of living and poor job opportunities, I doubt the province gets much migration from already-landed immigrants, except from investor/entrepreneurs using another province as a go-between. I do know that some provinces have a high out-migration of such immigrants.

patriotz
Member

@keeperofthederp:

"i think the local canadians were all priced out ages ago"

You're claiming that no "local canadians" (which I suppose means native born) are buying? You only have to read other posters to know that's not true.

space889
Guest
space889

@jesse: The only comment to the video is in Chinese for some reason and includes some stuff about CCP. Maybe translation is not needed, you just need to repost to Chinese forums or try to get on local Chinese TV.

EatMe
Guest
EatMe

The video seems like a lot of effort for a very weak message…

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

@specialfx3000:

"…buddy up with your parents, siblings or even friends."

After having seen some nasty relationship breakups recently where property was involved, I have come to the conclusion that it's a never a good idea to own property with anyone other than your spouse. Siblings? Forget it! Parents want to put your name on their house to avoid probate? Forget that too. It causes nothing but problems. At least in the case of a marital breakup you can sell the house and split the proceeds, or one partner can buy the other out if they wish to stay.

wpDiscuz