Has inventory peaked?

As of yesterday inventory was a few hundred over 16,000. Will we see 17,000 places for sale again this year or has inventory peaked?

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Jiffy
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Jiffy

Hey dumbass bears,

Is this deja vu for you guys?

You know, having inventory parties, celebrating what seems like the top, only to have your dreams dashed for another years as their is an "inexplicable" surge in sales and prices?

Be sure to celebrate an inventory party, because sure enough, if history tells us anything, you guys are wrong and we will have another bull run…

Go ahead, please celebrate an inventory party…you always jinx yourselves…please go have one…

specuskeptic
Member
Active Member

Going by seasonal patterns over the years, one would say yes BUT, should panic set in sooner than later, all bets are off.

jesse
Member

Vancouver is so not the story with inventory! BC's sideshows put on a much better show than the Big Tent these days.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

@Jiffy: Hey Dumbass Jiffy. When prices start to fall(and that will be soon), you'll see inventory increase very fast and we might have the 25000 party sooner than you think.

Boombust
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Boombust

"Is this deja vu for you guys?"

Yes. We have seen this before. Boom. Bust. So there.

Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

Might see 17K by the end of this month, but I'm more interested in MOI which is now over 6 and climbing.

people observer
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people observer

absurd- inventories will not rise (seasonal patterns). Same month increases will also be moderate. Remember people, people are still employed and I doubt unemployment will rise, rates are low and people are renewing at even lower rates than they had a few years ago,housing starts have been low. There will be no forced selling (listings).

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Check this out:

2579 SAPPHIRE PL, Westwood Plateau, Coquitlam,

V901568

Sold on 30/Apr/2010 $842,000

and currently listed for $858,000

Do you think it will sell even for $800,000?

patriotz
Member

@people observer:

There will be no forced selling (listings).

There is always forced selling.

As for employment, take a look at the graph here and ponder the implications:

http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2011/07/bc-e

And then you can add a likely US or China recession.

people observer
Guest
people observer

you are nitpicking over my use of "no forced selling". Obviously, that was used for effect, there is always some foreclosures on a case-by-case or even sector-by-sector. Clearly I am saying it will not over and above the norm.

patriotz
Member

@people observer:

The great majority of forced sales are not foreclosures, except when things get really bad as they are in some US markets now.

Which was my point really.

vanpire
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vanpire

@people observer:

housing starts have been low

This is simply not true. Not according to media and CHMC:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancou

Hazu Chan
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Hazu Chan

I have it on good authority that the HAM collective has decided that inventory has peaked. Caveat emptor.

Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

@Hazu Chan:

That is known as the HAM-BORG.

M-
Member
@people observer: I agree with you that we won't see any quick rises in inventory. If the 2008 pattern is repeated, what we'll see if the buyers disappear, so listings fester on the market, and new listings (normal volumes, nothing crazy) just get added to the pile. To everybody expecting listings to go crazy: they won't. If prices start to drop like 2008, (most) potential sellers won't suddenly decide to list their houses on the market– they'll be expecting that price drops will be temporary, and will quickly be "corrected" by another leg up in prices a few months later. I think the correction will be prices continuing to fall for years, slowly drawing speculators to sell, rather than a sudden influx of sellers trying to time the peak– until they're "forced" to sell, they'll hold off the market, praying… Read more »
people observer
Guest
people observer

Vanpire – look at the actual stats not the year/year numbers. Also look at number of starts from the beginning of the year up until now, not a one month snapshot which are ridiculously volatile. Starts are close to last year, way above 2009, but well below prior years.

Troll
Guest
Troll

Looks like inventory has pretty much peaked and we're shaping up to a similar back half of the year as last year. MOI will likely increase like it does almost every year. The one question is if we'll see increasing sales into the fall like last year. If so then I'd expect flat or slightly increasing prices. If sales fall off like they usually do in the fall, then I'd expect to see prices drifting lower. Short of an economic shock or black swan I think it'll be a boring 2011.

Alum
Guest
Alum

no

alx
Member
alx
I know people who used to rent. They got married so they are now owners. I know people who owned, but had to relocate. They sold and bought again. I know people who owned, but had kids, so they bought a new place, but haven't sold their old home. "We will just rent it out," they said. Now they have an "investment property". I know people who owned, sold, owned, but now needed more room and money with the kids, so moved back with parents, but haven't sold their old home yet (not using an agent). "We will just rent it out if we can't get the price. Not going to 'give it away'," they said. As a society we're at an all time high in home ownership. I think we're at the stage where people feel that they can… Read more »
jesse
Member
@M-: "the correction will be prices continuing to fall for years, slowly drawing speculators to sell" I had thought so too but there is another possibility, that there will be enough shell-shock from accidental landlords getting burned by renting that the listings may start piling in greater and greater numbers in the next few years. There was a massive push to sell in 2008 but that receded in 2009 in a major way as many properties changed hands, meaning a large swath of rentals are in the hands of still-recent owners and/or those who are new to the landlord racket. My feeling is that after a few years of renting, there will be increased exasperation with the realities of being a landlord. It won't happen immediately without a demand shock but it will be a slow crescendo of people exiting… Read more »
Inventory
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Inventory
More r_ealtors remarks in greater vancouver. The numbers of motivated sellers are growing. There is one seller that bought 3 houses in the spring and is now selling it lower than what it was bought at. Note Commission. Motivated seller, any reasonable offer will be reviewed. All measurements are approximate. Buyer to verify if important. Basement tenant $800/month, lease month by month. Upstairs is Vacant. Motivated asking price. Easy to show. Measurements approx, to be verified by buyer if important. All meas. are approx. Buyer to verify. Out of town motivated seller please allow time for offer. Priced to sell- bring fee agreement in compliance with Realtor Code of Ethics. Interpretation 20.1 of Article 20 (must accompany offer). Vendors motivated. All meas approx, to be verified if important. Sellers have bought a new home. Motivated Note Commission. Owner motivated. Bring… Read more »
jesse
Member

@alx: good comments. Stick around.

Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

@Inventory:

If they were really "motivated" they'd drop their prices.

900kCrackHouse
Guest
900kCrackHouse

I find the whole housing market in Vancouver so strange.

Case 1: Friends parents:

Asian, have various houses in Dad's name, Mom's name, kid's name, own houses in Vancouver and valley. Have lots of debts.

Case 2: Another Friend

Asian, relatives bought him a house while he goes to school, relatives own a number of houses in Vancouver area, they want to keep buying. They don't live here.

Case 3: Another acquantance

Asian, own multi-million dollar house in Surrey for Grandma, Grandma dies alone in house and isn't found for a number of days because family is in China, house now is empty.

This is a whacked out market…

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

@900kCrackHouse: I think your post illustrate what is happening to the Vancouver House Market, pure greed and speculation. The day of reckoning is coming very soon.

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