The Fall Listing Avalanche

Huh. A strange thing is happening in the back-to-school season. Lots of people are putting houses up for sale, but the buyers aren’t springing up in the same numbers.

Best Place on Meth points out where we are this month:

Sept. is on pace for 6008 listings, 2286 sales and 38% ratio.

Yep, that’s right. A 38% sales to list ratio.

Paulb says total number of listings available for sale has hit 16,775. We just might see inventory hit 17k this month.

Inventory shared numbers by area– the north shore numbers are tiny. There were 3 sales in North Van yesterday, and only a single sale in West Van.

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garth.turner
Guest
garth.turner

fffiiiiiiirrrrssssssssssttttt!

logic
Guest
logic

garth, you are a twat.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

IMO, 2008 was a foreshadowing of what is to come. When prices began dropping, the Feds pulled out all the stops.

HOWEVER, this time, there are no more tricks to pull out of the hat.This is the real deal. It's OVER.

Such conceit. Did Vancouver and environs actually believe they would squeak by without being severely spanked? At your peril.

patriotz
Member

@Boombust:

"When prices began dropping, the Feds pulled out all the stops."

That's not quite how it happened. They didn't do anything when prices started dropping in Vancouver and Toronto in spring 2008, nor did they do anything when prices started dropping in Alberta a year previously.

The Cons decided to juice the housing market late in 2008 to use RE to drive a "recovery" from the financial crisis/recession. And the ploy worked – electorally that is.

But economically it was just a parlour trick and as you say the hat is now empty.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

"When prices began dropping, the Feds pulled out all the stops.”

True enough, Patriot. I meant to say the stimulus was the result of the financial crisis. The RE drop was concurrent with that.

vreaa
Member

Are economists ignoring Australia’s property bubble? – "Many leading economists whose analysis and commentary the public relies upon have so many conflicts of interest it would fill a small book."

Article:
http://theconversation.edu.au/are-economists-igno

Excerpts:
http://wp.me/pcq1o-2Xh

“Many leading economists whose analysis and commentary the public relies upon have so many conflicts of interest it would fill a small book. Consultancies, university chairs, endowments, six-figure salaries, and industry directorships comprise part of the package that ensures economic “thought leaders” within government, industry and universities speak the words pleasing to the rich.”

…and, of course, in Vancouver, we're ALL 'rich'.

Hubris
Guest
Hubris

You know the conditions do look good for a change in the market…

BUT every single time you guys get excited and hold parties the market finds new strength and prices trend higher…

It seems that you guys always jinx yourselves…

For once, please, can you just put the bear hubris aside and let the market unfold on its own….

Don't jinx us this time…

jesse
Member

@Hubris: This time is dtfferent.

registered
Member
registered

@7 Hubris: Since this abnormal market is driven by government policies and not market forces, some of us never made timing predictions. You can't by definition make solid predictions about the action of strangers, in this case the fed. All you can do is predict, based again on market forces and basic economics, that the effects of their actions are temporary and eventually the market will return to its historic point of stability. So look out below sooner or later.

bubba
Guest
bubba

Fall…the Ides of Autumn?

The experts say Fall is a top buying season(as is Spring)

My take on this is the sellers are following this mantra, but the buyers are not "co-operating".

Soon November rolls around , then Xmas….wonder if listings get pulled till Spring/2012. Nothing worse than an UNsold "For Sale" sign sitting for over one month…like day- old bread.

The other thing is I think a wave of certain demgraphics is kicking in now, retirees/seniors who wished to cash out, but waited too long.

Mason
Guest
Mason

So a $1.3 Million dollar house in Kits will drop to $1.1 Million…Oh my God run for the hills Vancouver is going to be ghost town when the "Bubble" bursts!

patriotz
Member

@fixie guy:

"Since this abnormal market is driven by government policies and not market forces, some of us never made timing predictions."

You can't time markets even when they are driven by market forces alone. All you can to is try to estimate a reasonable price to pay, and fortunately for RE that is very easy.

patriotz
Member

@Mason:

"Vancouver is going to be ghost town when the “Bubble” bursts!"

Vancouver wasn't a ghost town after the 80's bust (although it had a lot of ghost construction sites and ghost jobs). What's going to disappear is the apparent wealth and life plans of a lot of people. A 20% drop in RE prices would be far more devastating than the 35% drop in the 80's because:

– so many more people have bought during the current bubble

– nobody was using their house as an ATM back then due to the high interest rates

– real prices are much higher

– interest rates can't drop as they did in the 80's.

Mason
Guest
Mason

Maybe interest rates can't drop but they can certainly stay the same and that means your mortgage on a $400,000 place will be the same as Renting would be($1600.00 a month)…and over the next 10-15-20 years prices will steadily rise again.Many thousands in Vancouver are waiting for the "drop" lots of demand that would stabilize things fast in my view.Vancouver is now a world destination not just Canadians..1.4 Billion Chinese..I.4 Billion Indians..Eastern Europe..Middle East…Etc…etc..

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Mason: Interest rates can also go up….which they certainly will. Don't forget to add property tax and maintenance costs to your monthly expenses too.

painted turtle
Guest
painted turtle

@Mason

Show me a place for sale for $400,000 where I can bring up two kids without commuting 2 hours a day. I haven't seen any for so many years! So I prefer to pay rent ($1500) for a place which is next to my job and in a beautiful peaceful setting. Give me a break with your lalaland calculations.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Mason: More realistically your mortgage would be approx $2000 per month on $400K, plus property taxes, plus strata, plus maintenance, plus closing costs…and how long before you outgrow that 1 bedroom shoe box. Let me think….yeah, I'll keep renting.

bubba
Guest
bubba

What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas ?

Nahhh watch the SHTF in Metro Van..simply watch YOUTUBE videos re Vegas RE crash .

The clown out here are still building….added to what is already excess inventory.

sebastian
Guest
sebastian
Just moved back to vancouver bought and sold some property in south-western ontario over the last 15 months,sold my vancouver real estate in 2009. I hate to tell everyone, vancouver is not a favoured destinations for many people. I didn't meet one person who would move their family to vancouver and pay outrages prices to live here. Oh and their were asians and indians in ontario that are happy where they are living and would never pay vancouver prices. Most world investors have taken their money out of vancouver and are investing in places like west palm beach and miami beach. Not sure about most of you but 100 grand for a nice condo in miami beach with a great night life, culture and alot of sun is much mor appealing than the rain in no fun vancouver. Only here… Read more »
Mason
Guest
Mason

Well I just bought a $460,000 1800 sq feet townhouse in New Westminster..$60,000 down..Ok with strata and taxes I'm at $2100.00 per month…co-worker just rented a 2 bedroom in port moody for $1600.00 a month.I'm 15 Minutes from work…10 minute walk to Skytrain..Household income of over $100,000 a year. It's easy…and why would iterest rates go up with a housing price crash?..It's been one of the main strengths of our economy…I can't see it.

bubba
Guest
bubba

OK ..consensus is Mason is f*cked.

Next….

gordholio
Member
#14, Mason: Thanks for stopping by. But shouldn't you be out there this morning trying to sell the last greater fool a $1 million dollar crack shack? Business pretty slow right now? Tell me, how do you know "many thousands" are waiting for a drop? What do you mean by "many thousands"? Five thousand? What do you mean by a "drop"? 30%? 40%? Damn, man, you'd think realtor school would have taught you to be more transparent when posting "the mantra" on Internet forums. 1.4 billion Chinese just waiting to ascend to the rainforests of BC, huh? I assume you know that 1.2 billion of that 1.4 billion lives below the poverty line, yes? I assume you also know that the phrase "world class" can be used to describe virtually *any* moderately-sized city in the developed world? Dude, Vancouver is… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Mason: …..Vancouver is now a world destination not just Canadians..1.4 Billion Chinese..I.4 Billion Indians..Eastern Europe..Middle East…Etc…etc…..

Well, who knew that 1.4 Billion Chinese and 1.4 Billion Indians were all planning on moving to Vancouver? I guess when they do, I'll buy both China and India for a song then you guys can all come to visit me.

Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

@Mason:

>>>Well I just bought a $460,000 1800 sq feet townhouse in New Westminster…<<<

Oh I see now, you're a dumbass who just bought at the peak and therefore a newly minted cheerleader.

I sincerely hope your $60K down is wiped out by spring.

Thanks for stopping by.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Mason: …..and why would iterest rates go up with a housing price crash?..It’s been one of the main strengths of our economy…I can’t see it. ..

Ha, ha! That's so funny I just spit coffee all over myself! Keep it up Mason, you hilarious!

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