The Fall Listing Avalanche

Huh. A strange thing is happening in the back-to-school season. Lots of people are putting houses up for sale, but the buyers aren’t springing up in the same numbers.

Best Place on Meth points out where we are this month:

Sept. is on pace for 6008 listings, 2286 sales and 38% ratio.

Yep, that’s right. A 38% sales to list ratio.

Paulb says total number of listings available for sale has hit 16,775. We just might see inventory hit 17k this month.

Inventory shared numbers by area– the north shore numbers are tiny. There were 3 sales in North Van yesterday, and only a single sale in West Van.

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Li Kai Shing
Li Kai Shing
9 years ago

@4SlicesofCheese:

Yep looks like a reno/flip gone wrong..unless Asians trying to launder money as we have discussed before.

But only $499,000 shouldn't lot value be much higher ?

patriotz
9 years ago

@Devore:

I hold a couple of those stocks myself.

I think that only experienced investors should hold individual stocks. An alternative is XTR (Diversified Income) which has thousands of holdings across the stock and bond markets and currently pays 6% yield.

Note that for any of these your monthly payment will be constant (or near constant for XTR) but the market price of the stock will fluctuate. You have to be prepared to live with this, and not to panic and sell if the price goes down. Buy low, sell high.

patriotz
9 years ago

@Eddie:

"Since the central banks don’t count consumables, fuels, or housing in their inflation numbers we are pretty much left with electronics and appliances to determine inflation…"

Shelter (i.e. rents or rental value of owner-occupied dwellings) is BY FAR the largest component of CPI. The fact that rents are going nowhere is the biggest reason why CPI inflation is low.

Also you're entirely wrong that consumables aren't in CPI (remember what the "C" stands for). What you're right about is that food and fuels aren't included in "core CPI" which is what the central bankers pay attention to. Other consumables are.

The price of buying RE is not included in CPI because that's not consumption but investment. Stock prices aren't included either.

Devore
Devore
9 years ago

@Anonymous: Out of my portfolio George Weston (WN.PR.E), Sun Life (SLF.PR.E), Bell Alliant (BA), InterPipeline (IPL.UN) pay over 5% (although on my cost basis I'm much higher). Of course, anything over 5 year rate has some risk, but it's not like real estate is exactly rock solid.

4SlicesofCheese
4SlicesofCheese
9 years ago
VMD
VMD
9 years ago

[Canada asks public to help combat citizenship fraud with Tip Line] 21 September 2011 – this controversial tip line was set up earlier this month. Already making big splashes in the Chinese/Immigrant media. "Members of the public who suspect people of committing fraud during the citizenship application process are encouraged to use the phone line to pass information onto the Department of Immigration and Citizenship (CIC). “Canadian citizenship is not for sale. I encourage anyone who has information regarding citizenship fraud to call our tip line,” said the department's minister, Jason Kenney. “My department will ensure that all tips are investigated and that appropriate action is taken." Applicants for citizenship are required to prove they have spent three of the past four years living in the country, but fraud – which includes, for example, concealing information which might affect the… Read more »

RippedtoShit
RippedtoShit
9 years ago

The listings are piling up! Thanks PaulB.

18,000 this month? If so, stick a fork in it, she's done!

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

In Trolls says reply to Mason he mentions there is a loss of opportunity on the 60,000 dollar down payment. He says it's 5% my question where can I get 5%? I would love to make 5% on my monies

Right now there is virtually no opportunity loss on using your monies on a down payment (only the chance of losing it all in a RE crash but then again you could lose it in the stock market too)

Zorba the Greek and
Zorba the Greek and
9 years ago

We got the other PIIGS lined up to , and we will all wear thongs !!!!

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

then pricedoutforever, chicken feet!

Zorba the Greek and
Zorba the Greek and
9 years ago

No way try and default on our homelands !

Try it and we lift up T shirts… scare beejeezuz out of IMF!

Eddie
Eddie
9 years ago

Off topic – Since the central banks don't count consumables, fuels, or housing in their inflation numbers we are pretty much left with electronics and appliances to determine inflation…

Check out this Best Buy flyer from '96 – No wonder we are told there isn't much inflation. A 3.1GB hard drive was $400!!!

http://gregarious24.imgur.com/best_buy_flyer_sept

Fullfrontalabotomy
Fullfrontalabotomy
9 years ago

@paulb.: 17k party hat fitting scheduled tonight so that I may show up for the festivities in a fashionable way. Eat it pumpers!

pricedoutfornow
pricedoutfornow
9 years ago

@taylor192: My household income is over $100k. And yet it would be a stretch for us to pay over $2000 a month in rent (or mortgage). Well, we could, but don't want to. Better to save what we can. The problem with having a mortgage payment is that you can't just jump ship one day, call the bank and say "Ah, things have changed, $2100/month is too expensive, we're leaving in a month." And if you can't sell, you're pretty much stuck. Especially if there are cheaper places for people to rent out there (I know someone who happily rents a whole 5 bedroom house in East Vancouver for $2000/month)-you won't even be able to move and rent out the place for the mortgage payment plus strata etc. Pretty scary when you think of just how chained you are to… Read more »

paulb.
paulb.
9 years ago

New Listings 291

Price Changes 143

Sold Listings 131

TI:16827

If you like the stats updates please “like” our Facebook page http://tinyurl.com/paulandlauren

Website http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

@Devore: …..Don’t treat me like an idiot and tell me you don’t care. It takes hard core investors years to develop the discipline to dissociate from the emotions so they can cut their losses and move on. No one likes to lose money, even if it’s “paper losses”, …

And, the most obvious point…. that $60k that you lost could have been used as a down payment on the same dump, but costing $60k less, reducing your monthly mortgage payments. So even if you don't really mind the notion of losing the $60k (which nobody believes) are you really so stupid that you don't mind the notion of continuing to pay the inflated monthly mortgage?

Here's a very subtle investing tip: BUY LOW, SELL HIGH!

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 years ago

dang it. you guys scared mason away.

vangrl
vangrl
9 years ago

I sold in Van West about 6 months ago, I'll buy back in if prices go down about 30-35%, that's the percentage that would make sense to maybe jump back in, and only if the rates are still relatively low. If it doesn't go down that much then I'll just keep renting…kind of enjoying renting actually

Devore
Devore
9 years ago

@jesse: The problem — and one glossed over by the vast majority of purchasers from what I’ve seen — is not taking into account that while you are more than likely to be able to hold your property, there will be a number of people who will not for various reasons, death, divorce, relocation, etc. These are the ones that will have to sell when nobody is buying and drive down the marginal price. The problem is that "those people" could very well be you. Oh yeah, you're just gonna hold on and ride it out, huh? Even if you lose your job? get divorced? have kids? get a sweet promotion to Toronto? As 4slices alluded to, this guy put down (claims to) $60k. I know when we're talking million dollar crack shacks it doesn't seem like a lot of… Read more »

taylor192
9 years ago

Mason is just talking out his ass.

He is right that you can buy a townhouse in NW for mid-400s.

He is wrong that you cannot rent a comparable place for less.

There's lots of 3bdrm homes available in NW for < $2K/mn.

Li Kai Shing
Li Kai Shing
9 years ago

Metal….pour viagra on it if need to. What is probrem? Watch pennies, Yuan grow ! Here is joke to explain logic to round eyes. A circus owner runs an ad for a lion tamer and two people show up. One is a retired golfer in his late sixties and the other is a gorgeous blond in her mid-twenties. The circus owner tells them, "I'm not going to sugar coat it. This is one ferocious lion. He ate my last tamer so you two had better be good or you're history. Here's your equipment — chair, a whip and a gun. Who wants to try out first?" The girl says, "I'll go first." She walks past the chair, the whip and the gun and steps right into the lion's cage The lion starts to snarl and pant and begins to charge… Read more »

specialfx3000
specialfx3000
9 years ago

@Inventory:

That's an amazing drop in asking within 6 months. Love how the eventual sale price will affect comparables in the neighborhood; especially when the for-sale sign mushrooms throughout Richmond.

whydoItry
whydoItry
9 years ago

So next time you buy frozen organic spinach from China, do you believe it? Or do you put the package back.

Renter/Loser(redunda
Renter/Loser(redunda
9 years ago

Ohhhhh, I am such a loser.

I know what is going on….false sense of security….wounded duck theory…that prices will stabliize or "collpase".

Then BOOM..all those buyers will be out there …driving up prices…paying waaay over asking.

I am such a loooseerrrrrrr

jesse
9 years ago

@VMD: "Thinning reinforcement rods is not illegal but when practiced to excess can lead to a reduction in the effectiveness of the metal"

The engineers should be doing spot stress/strain tests on the incoming rebar. Especially if their supply chain is in China. The buck doesn't stop with the rebar vendor, it's with the building engineers.

I have great stories of bizarre QC issues coming out of Chinese foundries and metal shops. My favourite: drawing called out for round stock for making pressure-tight manifold. Chinese vendor didn't have round but had square stock so reforged it into a round and all the manifolds leaked. I didn't know we needed to specify not to reforge blanks on the drawing but there you go.